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1.
本讲介绍如何在图上进行A.I.D.的分类筛选预报,它的优点是避免了计算,利用和天气预报中常用的点聚图方法相类似的画法,就可以作出预报。现用一个实例来说明。 考虑长江中下游汉口、九江、芜湖、南京、上海五站平均5—8月降水总量(y),选用了1952—1976年25年资料用五个气象要素作为因子。 因子:x_1是一月0—150°E,45—65°N的纬向指数I_z, x_2是一月份欧洲大型环流型C型天数, x_3是一月份长江流域六站降水量∑R_1月, x_4是一月份长江流域六站温度∑月, 相似文献
2.
The critical comments to the publications by the authors ofthe present paper that were given in [10] (the publications deal with the possible effects of gravity field inhomogeneities in the atmosphere and ocean) are discussed. In the authors' opinion, some remarks are groundless. At the same time, the authors agree with one of the important remarks that the results of their paper concerning studies of the ocean disturbances are to be reconsidered. 相似文献
3.
第七讲的方法,如果不是用极差进行分割,而是用变差进行分割,就成为一般书上所说的A.I.D.方法(筛选因子的一个新方法)。实际上,A.I.D.方法仅仅是最优分割法的一种灵活运用。为了能比较清楚地说明这一点,我们就依照一般书上的写法来介绍A.I.D.方法,然后,再说明它与最优分割法的关系。 相似文献
4.
《大气科学进展》1994,(4)
NO.1The Vertical Transport of Air Pollutants by Convective Clouds Part II:Transport of Soluble Gases and Sensitivity Tests ………………………………………………………………………Kong Fanyou(孔凡铀)(1)The Vertical Transport ofAir Pollutants by Convective Clouds Cloud Systems …·…………………………………………··Part III:Transport Features of Different Kong Fanvou(孔凡铀)and 0h Yu(秦瑜)(1 3)Study on Atmospheric Ozone in East Asia with Satellite Observation …………………………… 相似文献
5.
《大气科学进展》2002,(6)
Instability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-ENSO RelationsW ang Huijun (3E％) ......................................................................................................... 1-1 1Associations between the Western North Pacific Monsoon and the South China Sea Monsoon LuRiyu (ffiBf\Chan-Su Ryu, and Buwen Dong .................................................................. 12-24Parameterization of Longwave Optical Properties for Water CloudsWangHongqi (fiEJg-t) an… 相似文献
6.
Oliver Krueger Frauke Feser Lars Bärring Eigil Kaas Torben Schmith Heikki Tuomenvirta Hans von Storch 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(3-4):1127-1128
The main subject of this article is to comment on the issue of storminess trends derived from the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) and from observations in the North Atlantic region written about in Wang et al. (Clim Dyn 40(11–12):2775–2800, 2012). The statement that the 20CR estimates would be consistent with storminess derived from pressure-based proxies does not hold for the time prior to 1950. 相似文献
7.
二月七日(民国十九年)平旦,奥大利中央气象学及地力学研究院院长,维也纳大学大地物理学教授爱格耐卒於维也纳。一心悸病,而促其寿纪,而当代气象学,丧一硕儒,而德意志气象学者之林,丧一模楷,而故旧朋好,丧一信友。年来爱格耐君,体气日渐颓败,凡有幸得 相似文献
9.
ABSTRACTThe administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to stop the ongoing spiralling down of the U.S. coal industry. We discuss the origins of the decline and assess the effects of policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that, with fierce competition from natural gas and renewables, a further decrease of coal consumption must be expected by the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet. By contrast, we consider the overly optimistic (for coal producers) view of the U.S. Energy Information Agency, and test whether the tide for the U.S. coal industry could turn as a result of three potential support measures: (i) revoking the Clean Power Plan (CPP); (ii) facilitating access to the booming Asian market; and (iii) enhanced support for Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology. We investigate the short-term and long-term effects on U.S. coal production using a comprehensive partial equilibrium model of the world steam coal market, COALMOD-World (Holz, Haftendorn, Mendelevitch, & von Hirschhausen, 2016). We find that revoking the CPP could stop the downward trend of steam coal consumption in the U.S., but even allowing for additional exports, will not lead to a return of U.S. coal production to the levels of the 2000s, that is, over 900?Mt per year. When global steam coal use is aligned with the 2°C climate target, U.S. steam coal production drops to around 100?Mt per year by 2030 and below 50?Mt by 2050, even if CCTS is available and exports via the U.S. West Coast is possible.Key policy insights
Declining U.S. coal use is primarily caused by competition from natural gas and renewables not by environmental regulation of the coal sector.
Without substantial policy support, U.S. coal-fired generation capacity will continue to decline rapidly.
Revoking the Clean Power Plan will lead to about one eighth higher U.S. coal production in the next years.
Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage does not prevent the rapid decline of coal use required under stringent climate policy.
Even in the most extreme pro-coal scenarios with additional export possibilities, U.S. coal production will not return to its pre-2010 levels.
11.
The distribution of monthly mean error of NMC model forecasts and its seasonal variation are investi-gated.The ratio of monthly mean error to standard deviation is used here to find out that the region where acorrection of systematic error is needed and appropriate is mainly in low latitudes.The improvement,afterthe model's vertical resolution and some physical parameters were changed from April 1985,is investigated,andthe NMC operational model forecasts have also compared with those of ECMWF. 相似文献
12.
Levin et al. (2010; hereafter LHA) (Levin, Z., Halfon, N., Alpert, P., 2010. Reassessment of rain experiments and operations in Israel including synoptic considerations. Atmos. Res. 97, 513–525. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.06.011.), reanalyzed the results of the operational seeding in northern Israel between 1975 and 2007 and the preceding Israel 2 cloud seeding experiment (1969–1975) and concluded that there is no net increase in precipitation over the target areas. Our analysis revealed that a synoptic bias during Israel 2 is one of the reasons for the apparent positive effect of seeding in the northern target area and the negative effect in the southern area both of which disappeared in the following experiment in the south (Israel 3; 1975–1995) and the operational seeding in the north.Ben-Zvi et al. (2010;hereafter BRG) criticized our paper primarily on the ground that we did not consider the positive results of Israel 1 experiment (1960–1967). It should be noted that in Israel 1 different seeding lines were used from those in both Israel 2 and the operational period. In addition, its raw data is not accessible anymore for reanalysis. Furthermore, Israel 2 had been designed as a confirmatory cross-over experiment to Israel 1 and failed to reproduce its promising results with double ratio (DR) of ~ 1.00, namely, zero rainfall enhancements. The same DR values were also found in Israel 3 and in the operational seeding. Therefore, because of the differences in the two experiments, the lack of access to the raw data and the disappointing results of the confirmatory experiment, we decided to concentrate our analysis on the more recent seeding activities.The attempt by BRG to explain the reduction of the DR to ~ 1.00 in the operational seeding period by the suppression due to pollution have been disproved by Alpert et al., 2008, Alpert et al., 2009 and also fail to explain the sharp decline of the target/control ratio right at the beginning of the operational seeding period when the lucky draw in this area came to its end (see LHA). 相似文献
13.
《气象科学进展》2014,(6)
气象学的挪威学派(Norwegian School,又称卑尔根学派(Bergen School of Meteorology))由挪威气象学家V.皮叶克尼斯(Vilhelm Bjerknes)创立,在20世纪大气科学发展中贡献卓著,他们创立的极锋理论和锋面气旋模型对现代气象学影响深远。本文以挪威学派为线索,系统介绍了该学派的创立始末、发展历程和主要学术成就,分别对挪威学派三位重要气象学家J.皮叶克尼斯(Jacob Bjerknes)、H.索尔伯格(Halvor Solberg)及T.贝吉龙(Tor Bergeron)的生平经历、研究工作和重要研究成果的形成过程进行了回顾,包括锋面气旋模型和极锋理论、索尔伯格的惯性波研究、贝吉龙冷云降水过程等,并对其贡献进行了总结。 相似文献
14.
W. A. van Wijngaarden 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,109(1-2):1-5
The tragic events of Sept. 11, 2001 resulted in suspension of commercial flights over North America. It has been suggested that the diurnal temperature range (DTR) increased due to an absence of airplane contrails. This study examined hourly data observed at 288 stations. The average DTR, temperature, maximum/minimum temperature and relative humidity were found for each day in 2001 and compared to the average value occurring during 1975–2005. For the coterminous U.S., the DTR averaged over the period Sept. 11–14, 2001 was about 1°C larger than that found for the 3?days prior and after the flight ban. However, the day-to-day DTR does not correlate well with the flight ban. Plots of the change in DTR throughout North America during Sept. 8–17 show changes consistent with the natural progression of weather systems. 相似文献
15.
16.
D.J. Stucchi 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):118-136
Abstract Observations of the tidal jet issuing from Quatsino Narrows into Rupert‐Holberg Inlet, B.C. are discussed. Two types of flow are observed: a buoyant surface jet and a negatively buoyant jet. The buoyant flow is parameterized with an initial densimetric Froude number, and agreement is good between the observed vertical penetration of the jet and that predicted by several existing models. The negatively buoyant jet entrains several times its initial volume; entrainment constants for the flow are larger than those observed from the two‐dimensional plume on similar inclines, yet smaller than those for neutrally buoyant jets. A time‐scale of 2 to 3 weeks is calculated for the flushing of the Inlet during times of negatively buoyant inflow. The buoyant jet is observed to reduce the overall density of the water column, and estimated vertical eddy diffusivities are considerably larger than in most other fjords. Changes in the Froude number of the jet are controlled primarily by changes in the density and speed of the inflow. During the period of observations the density of the jet appears to be controlled by runoff. 相似文献
17.
《大气科学进展》1988,(4)
No.Test of a TroPical Limited Area Numerjcal Predjetion Model Ineluding Effect ofJishanKangling(王康玲),Real ToPograPhy……Zhin,i心(王志明),弃夕动qia,瞥(黄敏强),(薛纪善),叼勺塔‘飞公ehonA’(张学洪)and物a,:幽o矛烤兮“u心(袁重光)(l5 imulation of the Intensity and Polarization of Skylight during Twiligllt Period ....……T 11e Nonli,lear Diserimin之tnt and StePwiseNo一1】inear叭庚iyil瞥(吴北婴)andL反Da,‘el,(吕达仁)(15)Diseri一nina一It Analyses……h,0 Di,.心(姚棣荣)(27)E 1 Nino/Soutl… 相似文献
18.
《大气科学进展》1985,(4)
NO。1The Influences of Orography upon the Flow,刀ithin Ekman Boundary Layer under the APProxima一 tion of Gcostrophic Momentum····················,·····················,4··········……环1被R口尹碧‘heng(伍荣生)(1)Nurnerieal Simulation of TyPhoon Sur郎5 along the East Coast of Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinees cheng〔’ha心sheng(陈长胜)and Qin Zenghao(秦曾颓)(8)E伟沈ts of Horizontal Orientation on the Radiative Properties of Ice Clouds… 相似文献
19.
《大气科学进展》2007,24(6):1138-1143
ANEL Juan Antonio:see DE LA TORRE Laura et al.:(2)，191一198 AN Gang:see SUN Li et al.:(4)，606一618 AN Junling:CHENG Xinjin，QUYu，and CHEN YOng:Influenee of Vertieal Eddy Diffusivity Pa- rameterization on Daily and Monthly Mean Con- eentrations of 03 and NO、:(4)，573一580 AN Xingqin;ZUO Hongehao，and CHEN Lijuan;At- mospherie Environmental Capaeity of 502 in Win- ter ove:Lanzhou in China:A Case Study:(4)，688一699 AO Yinhuan;see WEN Jun et al.;(2)，301一310 BA… 相似文献
20.
L牟雨踢豁夫斯基(B·n.M”曰aHoBc琴戏):康直岛的氟候康真岛的海洋商案静浦脱(n..IO·山M邸馆)第11部。1904年出版。 2,牟雨温带夫斯基:湮霆的天氧倏件一氧象通报‘(Me哭BeCT兑)第12期。1907年出版。 3.牟雨踢藉夫斯甚:夏季大氧活勤中心封欧俄天氧的影智,1.旱炎地球物理集刊第11卷第3期,1916年出版。, 4.牟雨踢豁夫斯基:(1)天氧的假定(幻水文鬃的倏件。登载在茄利青(B.一 6.r。加从bIHa):肥利基刺克探险除徙冰瑰中得救出来舆1916年冬夏天氧特默的拼系一奢中。科季院策刊1916年出版。‘. 6.牟雨踢裕夫斯基:按拯地大氧活勤中心的影瞥来… 相似文献