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1.
The fuzzy clustering and zoning method (FCAZm) of systems analysis is suggested for recognizing the areas of the probable generation of the epicenters of significant, strong, and the strongest earthquakes. FCAZm is a modified version of the previous FCAZ algorithmic system, which is advanced by the creation of the blocks of artificial intelligence that develop the system-forming algorithms. FCAZm has been applied for recognizing areas where the epicenters of the strongest (M ≥ 73/4) earthquakes within the Andes mountain belt in the South America and significant earthquakes (M ≥ 5) in the Caucasus can emerge. The reliability of the obtained results was assessed by the seismic-history type control experiments. The recognized highly seismic zones were compared with the ones previously recognized by the EPA method and by the initial version of the FCAZ system. The modified FCAZm system enabled us to pass from simple pattern recognition in the problem of recognizing the locations of the probable emergence of strong earthquakes to systems analysis. In particular, using FCAZm we managed to uniquely recognize a subsystem of highly seismically active zones from the nonempty complement using the exact boundary.  相似文献   

2.
Clustering the epicenters of Caucasian earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 3.0 is carried out, and the epicentral zones of the probable earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 areas where epicenters of earthquakes with M ≤ 5.0 may occur are recognized by the Fuzzy Clustering and Zoning (FCAZ) algorithmic system developed by the authors at the Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. These zones correspond well to the locations of the epicenters of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. The zones recognized in this study are compared with the zones previously recognized by A.D. Gvishiani et al. in 1988 by the Earthquake-Prone Areas Recognition (EPA) technique. The comparison shows that the zones identified by FCAZ are mainly located inside the EPA-zones. The FCAZ-zones are also compared with the zones previously recognized using gravimetric and geological data. The results obtained by different methods closely agree. Contrary to EPA technique FCAZ algorithmic system relies on the DPS algorithm of objective classification that requires only the information about epicenters of the earthquakes in the region under study.  相似文献   

3.
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4.
With the use of the modified version of the original algorithmic Formalized Clustering and Zoning (FCAZ) system, the areas prone to the probable emergence of the epicenters of significant earthquakes are recognized in the joint region of the Crimea and western part of the Northern Caucasus. The selection of this region is justified by the tectonic structure and the presence of the active junction zone of the meganticlinoria. The reliability of the obtained recognition is substantiated by the comparative analysis of the actual and random FCAZ-recognition. For the first time, the problem of recognizing the locations of the probable emergence of the earthquakes' epicenters is solved for two different magnitude thresholds. This allows us to interpret the areas prone to the probable emergence of the epicenters of significant earthquakes as fuzzy sets.  相似文献   

5.
We present the results of verifying the areas that were detected as prone to strong earthquakes by the pattern recognition algorithms in different regions of the world with different levels of seismicity and, therefore, different threshold magnitudes demarcating the strong earthquakes. The analysis is based on the data presented in the catalog of the U.S. National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) as of August 1, 2012. In each of the regions considered, we examined the locations of the epicenters of the strong earthquakes that occurred in the region after the publication of the corresponding result. There were 91 such earthquakes in total. The epicenters of 79 of these events (87%) fall in the recognized earthquake-prone areas, including 27 epicenters located in the areas where no strong earthquakes had ever been documented up to the time of publication of the result. Our analysis suggests that the results of the recognition of areas prone to strong earthquakes are reliable and that it is reasonable to use these results in the applications associated with the assessment of seismic risks. The comparison of the recognition for California with the analysis of seismicity of this region by the Discrete Perfect Sets (DPS) algorithm demonstrates the agreement between the results obtained by these two different methods.  相似文献   

6.
The responses of the Kamchatka earthquakes with a minimum energy class of completeness K ≥ 8.5 to 214 strong worldwide earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 7.5 and to 40 earthquakes with M ≥ 8 are studied. The analysis covers the time interval of 1963–2012. The distances from the sources of the strongest earthquakes to the center of the seismically active Kamchatka zone range from 600 to 16000 km. It is established that the remote earthquakes enhanced seismic activity in Kamchatka, at least in the cases when the dynamic strain was above 10?6, which corresponds to the additional stresses of 10?2 MPa, accelerations above 0.1 cm/s2, and the periods of the surface waves of ～20 s. The response to the remote events gradually increased within a few days. The sensitivity of the response to the remote earthquakes varied in the course of time, which is identified on the intervals of a few dozens of years.  相似文献   

7.
The presence of a phenomenological relationship between high velocity regions in the Benioff zone and sources of relatively strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6) was established for the first time from the comparison of such earthquakes with the velocity structure of central Kamchatka in the early 1970s. It was found that, in the region with P wave velocities of 8.1–8.5 km/s, the number of M ≥ 6 earthquakes over 1926–1965 was 2.5 times greater than their number in the region with velocities of 7.5–8.0 km/s. Later (in 1979), within the southern Kurile area, Sakhalin seismologists established that regions with V P = 7.3–7.7 km/s are associated with source zones of M = 7.0–7.6 earthquakes and regions with V P = 8.1–8.4 km/s are associated with M = 7.9–8.4 earthquakes. In light of these facts, we compared the positions of M = 7.0–7.4 earthquake sources in the Benioff zone of southern Kamchatka over the period 1907–1993 with the distribution of regions of high P velocities (8.0–8.5 to 8.5–9.0 km/s) derived from the interpretation of arrival time residuals at the Shipunskii station from numerous weak earthquakes in this zone (more than 2200 events of M = 2.3–4.9) over the period 1983–1995. This comparison is possible only in the case of long-term stability of the velocity field within the Benioff zone. This stability is confirmed by the relationship between velocity parameters and tectonics in the southern part of the Kurile arc, where island blocks are confined to high velocity regions in the Benioff zone and the straits between islands are confined to low velocity regions. The sources of southern Kamchatka earthquakes with M = 7.0–7.4, which are not the strongest events, are located predominantly within high velocity regions and at their boundaries with low velocity regions; i.e., the tendency previously established for the strongest earthquakes of the southern Kuriles and central Kamchatka is confirmed. However, to demonstrate more definitely their association with regions of high P wave velocities, a larger statistics of such earthquakes is required. On the basis of a direct correlation between P wave velocities and densities, the distributions of density, bulk modulus K, and shear modulus μ in the upper mantle of the Benioff zone of southern Kamchatka are obtained for the first time. Estimated densities vary from 3.6–3.9 g/cm3 in regions of high V P values to 3.0–3.2 g/cm3 for regions of low V P values. The bulk modulus K in the same velocity regions varies from (1.4–1.8) × 1012 to (0.8–1.1) × 1012 dyn/cm2, respectively, and the shear modulus μ varies from (0.8–1.0) × 1012 to (0.5–0.7) × 1012 dyn/cm2, respectively. Examination of the spatial correlation of the source areas of southern Kamchatka M = 7.0–7.4 earthquakes with the distribution of elastic moduli in the Benioff zone failed to reveal any relationship between their magnitudes and the moduli because of the insufficient statistics of the earthquakes used.  相似文献   

8.
An analysis of the space-time locations of earthquake swarms in the Kamchatka subduction zone showed that the source zones of these earthquake swarms, as well as of the epicenters of most tsunami-generating earthquakes, are confined to the seamounts in the barrier ridge between Kamchatka and the deep-sea trench. The ??dot clouds?? of hypocenters of practically all earthquake swarms dip toward the trench on seismic sections that are oriented across the subduction zone trend; this fits the auxiliary focal solution of tsunami-generating earthquakes as was first noticed by L.M. Balakina and is in agreement with the model experiment carried out by L.I. Lobkovskii et al. We discuss a likely scenario for the generation of reverse-thrust blocks whose movements are accompanied by earthquake swarms and by tsunami-generating earthquakes. We estimate the locations of the most probable tsunami generation.  相似文献   

9.
The results of studying the process of underthrusting in the Pacific plate under Kamchatka are presented, and the phenomena associated with this process are described. The seismic component of the velocity of the plate underthrust is estimated on the basis of (1) data from the CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) catalog and (2) the sequence of the strongest Kamchatka earthquakes. A flat site with a strike azimuth of 217° and a dip angle of 25° located at depths of 30–70 km is assumed to be the interface between the plunging plate and Kamchatka. From CMT focal mechanisms, the underthrust velocity is estimated at V = 0.7 cm/yr for the southern zone (located south of Cape Shipunski) and at V = 1.1 cm/yr for the central zone (from Cape Shipunski to Cape Kronotski). From pairs of the strongest earthquakes that have occurred successively since 1737, the underthrust velocity for the southern zone is estimated at V = 6.6–7.1 cm/yr (from two pairs) and for the central zone, at V = 6.6 cm/yr. The creep portion of the underthrust amounts to 5–15% of the total velocity (the velocity of motion of the Pacific plate is 8 cm/yr).  相似文献   

10.
A network of stations for subsoil radon monitoring is in operation at the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky geodynamic testing area and is aimed at detection of strong earthquake precursors. At all stations, measurements are carried out using gas-discharge counters located at different depths within aeration zones of soft sediments. The volume activity of radon (VA Rn) is monitored at the most equipped station Paratunka (PRT) at three measurement sites located across the regional fault. The radon flux density (RFD) is measured from the surface. The article reviews responses in the dynamics of VA Rn and RFD from the surface at the PRT station prior to the Kamchatka earthquakes with magnitudes М W > 5 that occurred over the period of 2011–2016. The revealed RFD seasonal cycle is likely related to the seasonal variations in air temperature. The postseismic effect caused by the strongest deep Okhotsk earthquake (May 24, 2013, М W = 8.3) is detected in the RFD data. The behavior of VA Rn dynamics during time periods of the strong earthquakes is different. The results confirm the existing opinion on the formation of narrowly localized zones of Rn runoff to the atmosphere owing to both vertical and horizontal irregularities in the top layer of soil, which can react differently to changes in the geoenvironment stress–strain. On the basis of the real-time radon monitoring data, the authors have issued partially successful short-term prediction for several earthquakes. The results of this work confirm the opinion of many researchers that radon monitoring can be used in the short-term prediction of strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

11.
A daily periodicity in small (K ≤ 8. 0) Kamchatka earthquakes has been detected, with the maximum occurring during the nighttime. The effect was not observed throughout the area of study, but only in several zones. We show that the results are not affected by human and weather factors. A hypothesis is put forward to explain the physical causes of the effect, viz., that the daily periodicity of small earthquakes could be due to natural VLF electromagnetic radiation acting on the geologic medium. It is pointed out that the effect is related to the previously identified effect of natural electromagnetic radiation modulating the intensity of geoacoustic emission from rocks.  相似文献   

12.
The results of long-term studies of seismic noise before strong regional earthquakes on the Kamchatka Peninsula in 1992–2006 are presented. These results show that parameters of seismic noise variations caused by the tidal effect depend on the source position of the forthcoming earthquake. The reproducibility of the observed effects is demonstrated by the example of two strong deep (～200 km) subduction earthquakes with similar parameters that occurred on June 16, 2003 (M = 6.9), and on June 10, 2004 (M = 6.8). The physical mechanism of the synchronization of the tidal component extracted from high-frequency seismic noise with the wave of the gravitational tidal potential can be related to the possible development of near-surface dilatancy zones.  相似文献   

13.
The analysis of the magnetic survey data suggests the presence of a frontal zone of intense magnetic anomalies in a number of the Pacific island-arc systems. These zones with amplitudes of 100–300 nT are observed within the Kuril–Kamchatka and Aleutian island arc systems, in Southern and Central America, and Alaska. As demonstrated by the solution of the inverse problem and petromagnetic investigation of the rocks, these zones are presumably related to the serpentinite bodies which form as a result of the hydration of the upper mantle peridotites by the oceanic water penetrating through a system of cracks and fractures into the subducting slab at its bend. The rock magnetic studies show that magnetite is the main carrier of magnetization in these serpentinite bodies. Hydration of the subducting slab also causes hydration of the mantle rocks of the overriding plate with the formation of the magnetized serpentinite wedge. The decompaction of ultrabasic rocks under hydration is marked by a decrease in the gravity field and velocities of elastic waves. As the subducting plate loses water, it becomes embrittled and becomes the localization region for the epicenters of the strongest earthquakes. Magnetic survey can be used for revealing the potential sources of catastrophic earthquakes.  相似文献   

14.
Arrival times of P and S waves from local earthquakes in the Kamchatka area of the Kurile-Kamchatka Island Arc are used for calculating a spatial model of the elastic wave velocity distribution to a depth of 200 km. The lithosphere is shown to be strongly stratified in its velocity properties and laterally heterogeneous within the mantle wedge and seismic focal zone. A lower velocity layer (an asthenospheric wedge) is identified at depths of 70–130 km beneath the Eastern Kamchatka volcanic belt. The morphology of the Moho interface and the velocity properties of the crust are studied. The main tectonic structures of the region are shown to be closely interrelated with deep velocity heterogeneities. Regular patterns in the statistics of the earthquakes are analyzed in relation to variations in the elastic wave velocities in the focal layer. A mechanism of lithospheric block displacements along weakened zones of the lower crust and upper mantle is proposed.  相似文献   

15.
This paper considers the focal distribution of subcrustal earthquakes and the dynamic features of seismic wave propagation under some volcanic areas of Kamchatka. Under active volcanoes there are aseismic areas of anomalous attenuation of seismic waves. These features suggest the presence of low viscosity zones under volcanoes, in which there are no concentration of sufficient stresses to generate earthquakes. These zones extend down to the focal layer.  相似文献   

16.
To estimate the parameters of ground motion in future strong earthquakes, characteristics of radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the Kamchatka region were studied. Regional parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves were estimated by comparing simulations of earthquake records with data recorded by stations of the Kamchatka Strong Motion Network. Acceleration time histories of strong earthquakes (M w = 6.8–7.5, depths 45–55 km) that occurred near the eastern coast of Kamchatka in 1992–1993 were simulated at rock and soil stations located at epicentral distances of 67–195 km. In these calculations, the source spectra and the estimates of frequency-dependent attenuation and geometrical spreading obtained earlier for Kamchatka were used. The local seismic-wave amplification was estimated based on shallow geophysical site investigations and deep crustal seismic explorations, and parameters defining the shapes of the waveforms, the duration, etc. were selected, showing the best-fit to the observations. The estimated parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves describe all the studied earthquakes well. Based on the waveforms of the acceleration time histories, models of slip distribution over the fault planes were constructed for the studied earthquakes. Station PET can be considered as a reference rock station having the minimum site effects. The intensity of ground motion at the other studied stations was higher than at PET due to the soil response or other effects, primarily topographic ones. At soil stations INS, AER, and DCH the parameters of soil profiles (homogeneous pyroclastic deposits) were estimated, and nonlinear models of their behavior in the strong motion were constructed. The obtained parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves and models of soil behavior can be used for forecasting ground motion in future strong earthquakes in Kamchatka.  相似文献   

17.
This paper reviews the Kamchatka seismicity for a 50-year period of observation. These data were used to carry out a regionalization of Kamchatka’s seismic volume and adjacent areas. In all, ten zones were identified with differing activities and origins of seismicity. A comparative analysis was carried out for the seismicity in the more active zones. We found significant differences between the structures of the southern and the northern segment in the Kamchatka part of the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. Seismological data corroborated a relationship between the subduction zone and the underthrusting of the Pacific plate under the Eurasian plate. These data from the 50-year period of observation helped identify a new Koryak seismic belt that encompasses the northwestern coast of the Bering Sea. We provide a brief review of macroseismic effects due to the most significant earthquakes for the 1962–2010 period.  相似文献   

18.
The morphology of the Wadati-Benioff zone in the region of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands and Hokkaido, based on the distribution of 6319 earthquake foci, has verified the existence of an intermediate-depth aseismic gap and its relation to active andesitic volcanism. It appeared that deep-focus earthquakes in this region belong to a paleosubduction zone activated by an intermediate-depth collision with the active subduction zone in the area of Hokkaido. A system of deep seismically active fracture zones was delineated in the continental plate and confirmed by the results of deep seismic sounding. Two of these fractures, dipping toward the subduction zone, may be considered as the principal feeding channels for active and Holocene volcanoes of the continental volcanic bels of Kamchatka.  相似文献   

19.
Interplate coupling plays an important role in the seismogenesis of great interplate earthquakes at subduction zones. The spatial and temporal variations of such coupling control the patterns of subduction zone seismicity. We calculate stresses in the outer rise based on a model of oceanic plate bending and coupling at the interplate contact, to quantitatively estimate the degree of interplate coupling for the Tonga, New Hebrides, Kurile, Kamchatka, and Marianas subduction zones. Depths and focal mechanisms of outer rise earthquakes are used to constrain the stress models. We perform waveform modeling of body waves from the GDSN network to obtain reliable focal depth estimates for 24 outer rise earthquakes. A propagator matrix technique is used to calculate outer rise stresses in a bending 2-D elastic plate floating on a weak mantle. The modeling of normal and tangential loads simulates the total vertical and shear forces acting on the subducting plate. We estimate the interplate coupling by searching for an optimal tangential load at the plate interface that causes the corresponding stress regime within the plate to best fit the earthquake mechanisms in depth and location.We find the estimated mean tangential load over 125–200 km width ranging between 166 and 671 bars for Tonga, the New Hebrides, the Kuriles, and Kamchatka. This magnitude of the coupling stress is generally compatible with the predicted shear stress at the plate contact from thermal-mechanical plate models byMolnar andEngland (1990), andVan den Buekel andWortel (1988). The estimated tectonic coupling,F tc , is on the order of 1012–1013 N/m for all the subduction zones.F tc for Tonga and New Hebrides is about twice as high as in the Kurile and Kamchatka arcs. The corresponding earthquake coupling forceF ec appears to be 1–10% of the tectonic coupling from our estimates. There seems to be no definitive correlation of the degree of seismic coupling with the estimated tectonic coupling. We find that outer rise earthquakes in the Marianas can be modeled using zero tangential load.  相似文献   

20.
This paper discusses results from ongoing research on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc based on the concepts of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We developed a forecast for the next 5 years (April 2016 through March 2021) for all segments of the earthquake-generating zone along the Kuril–Kamchatka arc. The 20 segments of the arc were analyzed to develop forecasts of the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, a normalized parameter of the rate of small earthquakes (A10), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes that are expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum expected magnitudes, and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. We discuss the seismic process in the Kuril–Kamchatka earthquake-generating zone before and after the deep-focus May 24, 2013 M 8.3 earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk. The results corroborate the high seismic hazard in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii and the urgent need for continuing with and expanding the ongoing work of seismic retrofitting and seismic safety enhancement. We quote practical results from applications of the method during 30 years.  相似文献   

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