Are increased nutrient inputs responsible for more outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish? An appraisal of the evidence     

Brodie J  Fabricius K  De'ath G  Okaji K 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,51(1-4):266-278

The cause(s) of primary outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci) are still subject to scientific controversy. The possibility of primary outbreaks being linked to terrestrial runoff has been postulated a number of times, suggesting that enhanced nutrient supply is critical for enhanced A. planci larval development. This paper examines the evidence for such a cause, focussing particularly on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Nutrient discharges from rivers have increased at least four-fold in the central GBR over the last century, and concentrations of large phyto-plankton (>2 microm) of the inshore central GBR shelf in the wet season when A. planci larvae develop, is double that of other places and times. Larval development, growth and survival increase almost ten-fold with doubled concentrations of large phyto-plankton. This and other lines of evidence suggest that frequent A. planci outbreaks on the GBR may indeed be a result of increased nutrient delivery from the land.  相似文献   

On the reality of the 56-year cycle and the increased probability of large earthquakes for Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii during the period 2008–2011 according to lunar cyclicity     

A. A. Gusev 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2008,2(6):424-434

A 56-year cyclicity in the occurrence of large Kamchatka earthquakes has been previously detected. This is another manifestation of the tendency for the timing of large Kamchatka earthquakes to be synchronized to the cycles related to the period T _o of rotation of the lunar nodes found by V.A. Shirokov in 1974. He identified cycles of 18.6 years = T _o and 6.2 years = T _o/3, while the period of the 56-year cycle is 3T _o. The genuineness of that phenomenon had to be revised in connection with the occurrence of a large (M _w = 7.8) earthquake in Kamchatka at the end of 1997, in violation of the 56-year cyclicity. It turned out that, even though the 56-year cycle has become less distinct after the 1997 event, the cyclicity itself has remained statistically significant. A byproduct is an updated forecast of earthquake hazard for Kamchatka. The update is necessary in view of the approaching hazardous period of 2008–2011. It is found that, assuming the validity of these empirical tendencies, the expected rate of large earthquakes off Kamchatka for the period of August 2008 to October 2011 will be four times as high as the long-term mean. We derive the first-ever estimate of future hazard in terms of felt intensity for specified soil conditions (the so-called average soil) at a specified site (the town of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii). For these soil conditions, the estimated probability of at least one shock of intensity VII or greater during the period specified above is equal to 0.39 ± 0.15. The expected rate of single events or sets of events with M _w ≥ 7.6 in Kamchatka during this period is 0.76 ± 0.25.  相似文献   

Assessment of future groundwater recharge in semi‐arid regions under climate change scenarios (Serral‐Salinas aquifer,SE Spain). Could increased rainfall variability increase the recharge rate?          下载免费PDF全文

David Pulido‐Velazquez  José Luis García‐Aróstegui  Jose‐Luis Molina  Manuel Pulido‐Velazquez 《水文研究》2015,29(6):828-844

The projected impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is a challenge in hydrogeological research because substantial doubts still remain, particularly in arid and semi‐arid zones. We present a methodology to generate future groundwater recharge scenarios using available information about regional climate change projections developed in European Projects. It involves an analysis of regional climate model (RCM) simulations and a proposal for ensemble models to assess the impacts of climate change. Future rainfall and temperature series are generated by modifying the mean and standard deviation of the historical series in accordance with estimates of their change provoked by climate change. Future recharge series will be obtained by simulating these new series within a continuous balance model of the aquifer. The proposed method is applied to the Serral‐Salinas aquifer, located in a semi‐arid zone of south‐east Spain. The results show important differences depending on the RCM used. Differences are also observed between the series generated by imposing only the changes in means or also in standard deviations. An increase in rainfall variability, as expected under future scenarios, could increase recharge rates for a given mean rainfall because the number of extreme events increases. For some RCMs, the simulations predict total recharge increases over the historical values, even though climate change would produce a reduction in the mean rainfall and an increased mean temperature. A method based on a multi‐objective analysis is proposed to provide ensemble predictions that give more value to the information obtained from the best calibrated models. The ensemble of predictions estimates a reduction in mean annual recharge of 14% for scenario A2 and 58% for scenario A1B. Lower values of future recharge are obtained if only the change in the mean is imposed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Imprudent fishing harvests and consequent trophic cascades on the West Florida shelf over the last half century: A harbinger of increased human deaths from paralytic shellfish poisoning along the southeastern United States, in response to oligotrophication?     

J.J. Walsh  C.R. TomasK.A. Steidinger  J.M. LenesF.R. Chen  R.H. WeisbergL. Zheng  J.H. LandsbergG.A. Vargo  C.A. Heil 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(9):891-911

Within the context of ubiquitous overfishing of piscivores, recent consequent increments of jellyfish and clupeids have occurred at the zooplanktivore trophic level in the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM), after overfishing of one of their predators, i.e. red snapper. Initiation of a local trophic cascade thence led to declines of herbivore stocks, documented here on the West Florida shelf. These exacerbating world-wide trophic cascades have resulted in larger harmful algal blooms (HABs), already present at the base of most coastal food webs. Impacts on human health have thus far been minimal within nutrient-rich coastal regions. To provide a setting for past morbidities, consideration is given to chronologies of other trophic cascades within eutrophic, cold water marine ecosystems of the Scotian Sea, in the Gulf of Alaska, off Southwest Africa, within the Barents, White, and Black Seas, in the Gulf of Maine, and finally in the North Sea. Next, comparison is now made here of recent ten-fold increments within Florida waters of both relatively benign and saxitoxic HABs, some of which are fatal to humans. These events are placed in a perspective of other warm shelf systems of the South China and Caribbean Seas to assess prior and possible future poison toxicities of oligotrophic coastal habitats. Past wide-spread kills of fishes and sea urchins over the Caribbean Sea and the downstream GOM are examined in relation to the potential transmission of dinoflagellate saxitoxin and other epizootic poison vectors by western boundary currents over larger “commons” than local embayments. Furthermore, since some HABs produce more potent saxitoxins upon nutrient depletion, recent decisions to ban seasonal fertilizer applications to Florida lawns may have unintended consequences. In the future, human-killing phytoplankton, rather than relatively benign fish-killing HABs of the past, may be dispersed along the southeastern United States seaboard.  相似文献