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1.
Al-Ahmadi et al. (Arab J Geosci doi:10.1007/s12517-013-0974-6, 2013) applied spatial pattern analysis techniques to a seismic data catalogue of earthquakes beneath the Red Sea in order to explore and detect global and local spatial patterns in the occurrence of earthquakes over the years from 1900 to 2009 using a geographical information system (GIS). They found that the techniques of spatial pattern analysis that they applied could detect global and local clusters and broader spatial patterns in the occurrence of earthquakes and concluded that earthquakes with higher magnitudes were notably concentrated beneath the central and southern areas of the Red Sea, while earthquakes with low and moderate magnitudes were concentrated beneath the northern area of the Red Sea. The aim of this paper is to report on the application of logistic regression models to explore the associations between the likelihood of the occurrence of an earthquake beneath the Red Sea and four selected variables, namely: (1) proximity to the boundary of the African–Arabian plates, (2) proximity to transform faults, (3) proximity to the mid-Red Sea ridge and (4) the stage of rift evolution. The study was undertaken to evaluate the potential of logistic regression modelling for research exploring potential associations between earthquakes and geological and tectonic variables. The results revealed that none of the assumptions underpinning the logistic regression models had been violated for the three logistic regression models that were used in this research. The authors inferred that the occurrence of the earthquakes beneath the Red Sea was statistically significantly associated with the proximity to the African–Arabian plate boundary. We concluded that earthquakes of moderate magnitudes occurred in the zone which represents the late evolutionary stage of the Red Sea rift, including the transition zone beneath the central area and the late-stage continental rift zone beneath the northern area of the Red Sea. In contrast, earthquakes with high magnitudes tended to occur in close proximity to the mid-ridges of the Red Sea.  相似文献   

2.
This paper examines the spatial variation of HIV/AIDS prevalence rates in Nigeria. It uses Exploratory Spatial Data Analytical (ESDA) techniques to provide insight into the pattern. The overriding objective is to determine if there is a significant spatial clustering of HIV/AIDS. The calculated and mapped Global and Local Moran’s I, and Getis and Ord G i * values reveal certain states such as Benue, Nassarawa, Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and Cross River have significant spatial clusters of HIV/AIDS rates in Nigeria. The spatial analysis enables policy makers to identify states most affected, and design effective and culturally acceptable preventive measures. Specific policies targeted at states are a more appropriate approach in tackling the epidemic rather than the usual universal cookie-cut HIV reduction strategies that may not be applicable to the different cultural milieu.  相似文献   

3.
An instrumental earthquake catalog covering the time span between 1903 and 2007 and for the area bounded by 32°N–38°N and 35°E–43°E has been compiled in this research. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness (M c ) with 3.5. Least squares and statistical probability Gumbel’s techniques with different approaches have been applied on the instrumental events in order to assess the average recurrence time periods for different earthquake magnitudes. The constants a and b of Gutenberg-Richter and the average recurrence times have been computed firstly for the study area and secondly for the central and northern parts of Dead Sea fault system. The different statistical computations using Knopoff and Kagan formalism are generally in agreement and suggest an average recurrence time of 203 years for an earthquake of magnitude 7 for the region. The occurrence of large well-documented historical earthquakes in Lebanon and western Syria, the existence of active fault segments, the absence of large earthquakes during the study period, the increasing number of the low-magnitude earthquakes, and the continued accumulation of the strain since 1900 indicate therefore the probability of an earthquake occurrence of a large magnitude. This should be permanently taken into consideration in seismic hazard assessment on the local and regional scales.  相似文献   

4.
In this work, we consider historical earthquakes registered in Chile (from 1900 up to 2010) with epicenters located between 19 and 40°S latitude, in order to evaluate the probabilities of the occurrence of strong earthquakes along Chile in the near future. Applying Gumbel??s technique of first asymptotic distribution, Wemelsfelder??s theory and Gutenberg?CRichter relationship, we estimate that during the next decade strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes larger than 8.7?C8.9 could occur along Chile. According to our analysis, probabilities for the occurrence of such a strong earthquake range between 64 and 46% respectively. Particularly in the very well known ??seismic gap?? of Arica, a convergence motion between Nazca and South American plates of 77?C78?mm/year represents more than 10?m of displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction earthquake in this area over 134?years ago. Therefore, this area already has the potential for an earthquake of magnitude >8.  相似文献   

5.
Abu-Dabbab area is the most active seismic zone in the central Eastern Desert of Egypt, where seismic activities are daily recorded. The reported earthquakes are microearthquakes of local magnitudes (ML < 2.0). A spatial distribution of these microearthquakes shows that the earthquakes of the area follow an ENE–WSW trending pattern, which is nearly perpendicular to the Red Sea Rift. Focal mechanisms of different fault styles were recognized with dominant normal faulting (with a strike-slip component) events characterized by focal depths greater than 7 km and reverse ones of shallower focal depths. Several lines of evidence indicating that the brittle-ductile transition zone underlies the Abu-Dabbab area occurs at a relatively shallow depth (10–12 km) and it is acting as a low-angle normal shear zone (LANF). Field-structural, EMR and seismic data (this study) reveal that the maximum compressive stress (σ1) in the area is perturbed from the regional NW–SE direction to ENE–WSW orientation. This stress rotation is evidently akin to the reactivation of the crustal scale Najd Fault System (NFS), where such reactivation is attributed to the ongoing activity/opening of the Red Sea. Our tectonic model proposes that the continuous activity on the brittle-ductile transition zone including the LANF led to stress localization, which triggering a brittle deformation in the upper crustal-levels and associated shallow dipping thrusts. Such bimodal tectonic model suggests that the deep earthquakes are owing to the tectonic movement on the LANF (transtension), whereas the shallow earthquakes are related to a brittle deformation inside the fault blocks of the upper crust (transpression). Deformation creep along this zone didn’t permit continuous accumulation of strain and hence reduce the possible occurrence of large earthquakes.  相似文献   

6.
The Himalayan fold-thrust belt has been visited by many disastrous earthquakes (magnitude > 6) time and again. This active collisional orogen bordering Indian subcontinent in the north remains a potential seismic threat of similar magnitude in the adjoining countries like India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and China. Though earthquake forecasting is riddled with all conjectures and still not a proven presumption, identifying likely source zones of such disastrous earthquakes would be an important contribution to seismic hazard assessment. In this study, we have worked out spatio-temporal clustering of earthquakes (Mb ?? 4.5; 1964?C2006) in the Himalayas. ??Point density?? spatial statistics has helped in detecting 22 spatial seismicity clusters. Earthquake catalog is then treated with a moving time-distance window technique (inter-event time 35 days and distance 100 ± 20 km) to bring out temporal clusters by recognizing several foreshock-main shock-aftershock (FMA) sequences. A total of 53 such temporal sequences identified in the process are confined within the 22 spatial clusters. Though each of these spatio-temporal clusters deserves in-depth analysis, we short-listed only eight such clusters that are dissected by active tectonic discontinuities like MBT/MCT for detail study. Spatio-temporal clusters have been used to constrain the potential source zones. These eight well-defined spatio-temporal clusters demonstrate recurrent moderate to large earthquakes. We assumed that the length of these clusters are indicating the possible maximum rupture lengths and thus empirically estimated the maximum possible magnitudes of eight clusters that can be generated from them (from west to east) as 8.0, 8.3, 8.2, 8.3, 8.2, 8.4, 8.0 and 7.7. Based on comparative study of the eight cluster zones contemplating with their temporal recurrences, historical seismic records, presence of intersecting faults and estimated magnitudes, we have guessed the possibility that Kangra, East Nepal, Garhwal and Kumaun?CWest Nepal clusters, in decreasing order of earthquake threat, are potential source zones for large earthquakes (??7.7 M) in future.  相似文献   

7.
Using 4.0 and greater magnitude earthquakes which occurred between 1 January 1900 and 31 Dec 2008 in the Sinop province of Turkey this study presents a seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic and statistical methods. According to the earthquake zonation map, Sinop is divided into first, second, third and fourth-degree earthquake regions. Our study area covered the coordinates between 40.66°– 42.82°N and 32.20°– 36.55°E. The different magnitudes of the earthquakes during the last 108 years recorded on varied scales were converted to a common scale (Mw). The earthquake catalog was then recompiled to evaluate the potential seismic sources in the aforesaid province. Using the attenuation relationships given by Boore et al. (1997) and Kalkan and Gülkan (2004), the largest ground accelerations corresponding to a recurrence period of 475 years are found to be 0.14 g for bedrock at the central district. Comparing the seismic hazard curves, we show the spatial variations of seismic hazard potential in this province, enumerating the recurrence period in the order of 475 years.  相似文献   

8.
Nava  F.  Reynoso  H.  Glowacka  E. 《Mathematical Geosciences》2023,55(4):579-605

Space–time seismic clusters, localized bursts of seismic activity, are a feature of background seismicity before the occurrence of large earthquakes, a feature that agrees with observations of diminishing Gutenberg–Richter b-value, fractal dimension, and entropy, and is therefore suggestive of high stress. However, identification and quantification of these space–time clusters, particularly when they are small, is not an easy task and requires a priori assumptions. A novel method for space–time cluster identification, based on an extension of the concept of apparent velocities, is proposed because space–time clusters in the background seismicity have a particular signature in the apparent velocity domain. The contents of histogram peaks due to clusters in the apparent velocity histogram can be used to quantify the cluster activity compared with null hypothesis levels. Identification of the earthquakes corresponding to the apparent velocities in the peaks allows identification of cluster activity in time and space. Apparent velocity peaks do appear in real catalog data for southern California and northern Baja California before the Landers 1992 M = 7.3, Hector Mine 1999 M = 7.1, El Mayor-Cucapah 2010 M = 7.2, and Ridgecrest 2019 M = 7.1 earthquakes, and they appear only within 15 to 25 years before the occurrence of large earthquakes. They are not observed either long before the large earthquakes or after them, and hence could be related to high local states of stress and be of value as a possible precursory observable.

  相似文献   

9.
With the accelerating progress of industrialization, urbanization and population growth in recent decades, community resilience, the ability of communities to function effectively and recover successfully in the aftermath of disasters and shocks, has received great attentions. A number of studies had been conducted focusing on community resilience. This article applied community resilience framework to the coastal areas of China, which are the most densely populated and economically developed areas in China with the most frequent marine disasters. City-level social and economic data were used to construct a community resilience index (CRI). Using factor analysis and the global principal component analysis method, 55 city-level indexes were reduced into 15 factors that explain 73.99% of the variance. Getis–Ord G* Statistics were used to depict the high-value clusters and low-value clusters of the CRI. Clearly identified spatial and temporal variations of the CRI showed that both the overall level and regional differences of the CRI increased from 2003 to 2013; the overall spatial agglomeration characteristic of community resilience was not significant. Our findings also highlighted the key elements to improving community resilience: a robust and developed economic system; excellent education programs and training to improve consciousness on disaster prevention and mitigation; adequate investment on critical infrastructure, especially transportation and communication; proper environmental policies to protect ecosystems and water rouses; and extra attention and disaster risk budgets for vulnerable populations.  相似文献   

10.
Speidel  D. H.  Mattson  P. H. 《Natural Hazards》1997,16(2-3):165-179
The use of b-values derived from the Gutenberg–Richter relationship as a phenomenological base for developing probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) has been questioned for years. The relationship is still used because political demands require something for PSHA, one variable is easy to deal with, and no persuasive alternative has come forward. Using cumulative distribution probability plots, it can be shown that seismic magnitude-frequency data can be well described as one or more populations, each of which is normally distributed with respect to magnitude. This holds true for large earthquakes when sorted by mechanism, for earthquakes >400 km deep, for the general USGS NEIC catalog, for the Harvard CMT catalog, for the CERI catalog of the New Madrid Zone, and for a Scandinavian catalog. In all instances, multiple normal populations provide a better fit to the data than does the Gutenberg–Richter relationship. Use of these multiple populations in PSHA emphasizes that the scientifically sound limits of magnitude projection are within the 4 limit of the largest populations. Such graphs may make it easier to resist political requirement to extrapolate into scientifically unsound regions.  相似文献   

11.
《Gondwana Research》2010,17(3-4):370-400
A dense nationwide seismic network recently constructed in Japan has been yielding large volumes of high-quality data that have made it possible to investigate the seismic structure in the Japanese subduction zone with unprecedented resolution. In this article, recent studies on the subduction of the Philippine Sea and Pacific plates beneath the Japanese Islands and the mechanism of earthquake and magma generation associated with plate subduction are reviewed. Seismic tomographic studies have shown that the Philippine Sea plate subducting beneath southwest Japan is continuous throughout the entire region, from Kanto to Kyushu, without disruption or splitting even beneath the Izu Peninsula as suggested in the past. The contact of the Philippine Sea plate with the Pacific plate subducting below has been found to cause anomalously deep interplate and intraslab earthquake activity in Kanto. Detailed waveform inversion studies have revealed that the asperity model is applicable to interplate earthquakes. Analyses of dense seismic and GPS network data have confirmed the existence of episodic slow slip accompanied in many instances by low-frequency tremors/earthquakes on the plate interface, which are inferred to play an important role in stress loading at asperities. High-resolution studies of the spatial variation of intraslab seismicity and the seismic velocity structure of the slab crust strongly support the dehydration embrittlement hypothesis for the generation of intraslab earthquakes. Seismic tomography studies have shown that water released by dehydration of the slab and secondary convection in the mantle wedge, mechanically induced by slab subduction, are responsible for magma generation in the Japanese islands. Water of slab origin is also inferred to be responsible for large anelastic local deformation of the arc crust leading to inland crustal earthquakes that return the arc crust to a state of spatially uniform deformation.  相似文献   

12.
The results of seismic monitoring in the area of the Franz Victoria and Orla trenches in 2011–2013 are discussed in the paper. A seismic catalog of recorded earthquakes with calculated source parameters is given, and the spatial distribution of these earthquakes is characterized. The results of monitoring are compared with the data on historical earthquakes. A cumulative graph of recurrence has been constructed.  相似文献   

13.
We found a characteristic space–time pattern of the tidal triggering effect on earthquake occurrence in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, central Japan, where a large interplate earthquake may be impending. We measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence using microearthquakes that took place in the Philippine Sea plate for about two decades. For each event, we assigned the tidal phase angle at the origin time by theoretically calculating the tidal shear stress on the fault plane. Based on the distribution of the tidal phase angles, we statistically tested whether they concentrate near some particular angle or not by using Schuster's test. In this test, the result is evaluated by p-value, which represents the significance level to reject the null hypothesis that earthquakes occur randomly irrespective of the tidal phase angle. As a result of analysis, no correlation was found for the data set including all the earthquakes. However, we found a systematic pattern in the temporal variation of the tidal effect; the p-value significantly decreased preceding the occurrence of M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes, and it recovered a high level afterwards. We note that those M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes were considerably larger than the normal background seismicity in the study area. The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak at the phase angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This indicates that the observed small p-value is a physical consequence of the tidal effect. We also found a distinctive feature in the spatial distribution of p-values. The small p-values appeared just beneath the strongly coupled portion of the plate interface, as inferred from the seismicity rate change in the past few years.  相似文献   

14.
Makkah and central Red Sea regions have been re-evaluated from recent earthquake data analysis. Epicenters of recent seismic activity are concentrated in three local seismic zones. These are Ad Damm fault (NE), Nu’man–Makkah–Fatima (NW), and Jeddah-Red Sea (NW) seismic zones. Moreover, an extended seismic zone along the central part of Red Sea is observed. Most of these epicenters are distributed along tectonic faults, as indicated from the subsurface structure analysis of the aeromagnetic anomaly map. Some epicenters of small magnitudes are inaccurately located. The study indicates the existence of large active structural basin south of Makkah region, which traverse Ad Damm fault zone with the Red Sea transform faults. Slip vector analyses were carried out for 50 available earthquake focal mechanisms around Makkah region. In Nu’man, Makkah, and Fatima structural zones, the slip vectors generally trend NW and NNW. However, in the southern part at the Ad Dam structure zone, the slip vector trends NE–SW. These may result from the current complicated drifting motion of Arabian plate away from African plate combined with the opening of the Red Sea rift.  相似文献   

15.
The earthquake is known to be an unpredictable geophysical phenomenon. Only few seismic indicators and assumptions of earthquakes can be predicted with probable certainty. This study attempts to analyze the earthquakes over the Indo-Himalayan Border region including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, China and India during the period from 1995 to 2015. Bangladesh, Bhutan and China borders experience fewer earthquakes than Nepal and India border regions. However, Indo-China rim has inconsistency and vast range in its magnitude. Bangladesh though is a small country with respect to others, but it experiences earthquakes comparable to Bhutan. Nepal experiences highest number of earthquakes. In the last 20 years around 800 records have been observed with moment magnitude > 4.0 Richter scale, while very few records (around 10–12) have been observed for large earthquakes having moment magnitude > 6.0 Richter scale over the region. In this study adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system has been implemented to assess the predictability of seismic moment associated with large earthquakes having the moment magnitude between 6.0 and 8.0 Richter scales using different combination of epochs, technique and membership functions. The Gaussian membership function with hybrid technique and 40 epochs is observed to be the reasonable model on the basis of the selected spatial and temporal scale. The forecast error in terms of root-mean-square error with the stopping criterion 0.001 has been observed to be 0.006 in case of large earthquakes (> 6.5 Richter scale), that is, forecast accuracy of 99.4%. The model bias of 0.6% may be due to inadequate number of large earthquakes having moment magnitude > 6.5 Richter scale over the region.  相似文献   

16.
An earthquake is a natural phenomenon which is very frequent in Himalayan region in India. In southern peninsula India, the spatial occurrence of earthquake is irregular, whereas the northeastern, the north and the northwestern Himalayan parts of India are subjected to regular occurrences of earthquakes as they mark the boundary of the Eurasian and the Indian Plate. Hence, it is important to study and develop spatial model and information tool to understand the seismic phenomenon. The geoinformatic technique plays a significant role in the analysis of geodatabase to study the natural disaster and hazard assessment. The main aim of the present study is to develop geospatial model based on earthquake hazard assessment tool (EaHaAsTo) through integrated geological and geoinformatic techniques to better understand the earthquake occurrences zones. The spatial and non-spatial data were collected and integrated in a GIS to prepare geospatial databases. The thematic and quantitative databases were generated, and analysis was carried out to understand the seismic characteristics of the study area. The geospatial model was developed by integrating thematic databases and geospatial analyzed using weighted linear combination method. Finally, the GIS based on customized EaHaAsTo was developed to visualize the output of the model in qualitative and quantitative forms.  相似文献   

17.
Gumbel's extreme-value theory is used to estimate the probability of occurrence and average return periods for earthquakes in the Indian Ocean seismic belts. The nature of seismic activity, and annual and 50 year maximum magnitudes of earthquakes are also discussed. The earthquake occurrence model of autocorrelation lends support for the periodicity of the most probable earthquake in these belts. The percentage probability of recurrence of earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above has been estimated for the region mentioned.  相似文献   

18.
介绍了中国及邻区地震目录数据库的开发状况，从历史强震、近代强震及强震震源深度等几个方面，结合我国及邻区板块构造以及应力状态、壳幔结构的东西部差异对我国强震的空间格局进行了较为系统的分析．公元1900年以前我国华北地区的强震呈现出大梯形格局，而公元1900年之后我国强震则以西部的巨大扇形为主要特征，其中震源深度最深的区域分别位于大扇形的2个顶点处，即兴都库什-帕米尔以及缅印交界地区．就我国强震所特有的空间分布格局对我国强震的线性以及区域性迁移模式进行了总结和分析，其中线性迁移模式又可细分为前进跳跃式和钟摆式．对文中涉及的强震迁移机制分别利用断层破裂、弹簧-滑块、壳幔的结构性差异以及它们之间的相对运动等模型进行了初步的解释．  相似文献   

19.
Precipitation has been regarded as one of the most important meteorological parameters affecting human activities. The findings of research studies confirm that the variability and fluctuation in precipitation has direct impacts on climate of a given region. The purpose of the present study was to investigate long-term patterns in precipitation variation in Iran. To this end, the available data related to rainfall in Iran over the past half century (1957–2007) were retrieved from APHRODITE database in order to analyze the spatial-temporal variations of precipitation. The statistical test performed on the collected data included spatial auto-correlation, global Moran’s index, local Moran’s index, and hotspots. The results obtained showed that the precipitation variation in Iran followed a high clustering pattern. More specifically, the results of the local Moran’s index and hotspot analysis performed on the data revealed that the precipitation along the Caspian Sea coast and western and southwestern parts of the country had a positive spatial auto-correlation while the precipitation variation in some parts of the central Iran and along the coastline of the country showed a negative spatial auto-correlation. Moreover, the findings of the present study showed that the climate change continued during the decades under study, with clustering patterns of precipitation moving from the southern parts of the country upward towards the coastal regions of the Caspian Sea and the regions in the outskirt of Zagros Mountains.  相似文献   

20.
We explore the variations of Rayleigh-wave phase-velocity beneath the East China Sea in a broad period range (5–200 s). Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves are measured by the two-station technique for a total of 373 interstation paths using vertical-component broad-band waveforms at 32 seismic stations around the East China Sea from 6891 global earthquakes.The resulting maps of Rayleigh-wave phase velocity and azimuthal anisotropy provide a high resolution model of the lithospheric mantle beneath the East China Sea. The model exhibits four regions with different isotropic and anisotropic patterns: the Bohai Sea, belonging to the North China Craton, displays a continental signature with fast velocities at short periods; the Yellow Sea, very stable unit associated with low deformation, exhibits fast velocities and limited anisotropy; the southern part of the East China Sea, with high deformation and many fractures and faults, is related to slow velocities and high anisotropic signature; and the Ryukyu Trench shows high-velocity perturbations and slab parallel anisotropy.  相似文献   

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