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1.
Beachrocks occur in present-day intertidal zones of the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Aqaba, on the eastern and northwestern coasts, respectively, of Saudi Arabia. The beachrocks occur as linear patches within beach deposits, which have variable grain size and detrital compositions. The Arabian Gulf beachrocks are composed of sand-sized bioclasts and siliciclastic grains, whereas the Gulf of Aqaba beachrocks are composed of sand- to pebble-size grains, which are dominated by igneous rock fragments and small amounts of skeletal carbonate grains. The cement includes micritic high-magnesian calcite and isopachous acicular/bladed aragonite. In addition to cements, intergranular pores are locally filled by a lime–mud matrix. Radiocarbon dating of beachrock samples from the Arabian Gulf yielded ages from ca. 655 to 2185 year bp, whereas the Gulf of Aqaba samples range in age between 2745 and 5075 year bp.  相似文献   

2.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, \({\hbox {M}}_{\mathrm{w}} = 6.4\) (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration (\({\hbox {S}}_{\mathrm{a}}\)) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.  相似文献   

3.
China has a long history of earthquake records. The Shanxi rift system (SRS) is situated along the axial zone of the domal uplift of the Shanxi Highlands and is the boundary between the Ordos block and the North China Plain block. Strong earthquakes in the SRS have been recorded since the thirteenth century. In our work, we applied the Bayesian probability method using extreme value distribution of earthquake occurrences to estimate the seismic hazard in the SRS. The seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate, and magnitude were considered as the basic parameters for computing the Bayesian prior estimates of the seismicity. These estimates were then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical estimates of seismicity in the SRS. The probability of occurrence of $M_{\text{s}} = 5.0$ for Z1, Z2, and Z3 is less than 0.3, 0.1, and 0.6, respectively (T = 5 years). The probability of the occurrence of M  $\ge$  8.0 is small for the whole SRS. The selection of upper bound magnitude probably influences the result, and the upper bound magnitude of Z1, Z2, and Z3 may be 7.5, 7.0, and 8.5, respectively. We obtained the values of the magnitude of completeness M c (3.2) and the Gutenberg–Richter b value before applying the Bayesian extreme value distribution of earthquake occurrences method.  相似文献   

4.
Using 4.0 and greater magnitude earthquakes which occurred between 1 January 1900 and 31 Dec 2008 in the Sinop province of Turkey this study presents a seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic and statistical methods. According to the earthquake zonation map, Sinop is divided into first, second, third and fourth-degree earthquake regions. Our study area covered the coordinates between 40.66°– 42.82°N and 32.20°– 36.55°E. The different magnitudes of the earthquakes during the last 108 years recorded on varied scales were converted to a common scale (Mw). The earthquake catalog was then recompiled to evaluate the potential seismic sources in the aforesaid province. Using the attenuation relationships given by Boore et al. (1997) and Kalkan and Gülkan (2004), the largest ground accelerations corresponding to a recurrence period of 475 years are found to be 0.14 g for bedrock at the central district. Comparing the seismic hazard curves, we show the spatial variations of seismic hazard potential in this province, enumerating the recurrence period in the order of 475 years.  相似文献   

5.
A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is developed here using maximum credible earthquake magnitude statistics and earthquake perceptibility hazard. Earthquake perceptibility hazard is defined as the probability a site perceives ground shaking equal to or greater than a selected ground motion level X, resulting from an earthquake of magnitude M, and develops estimates for the most perceptible earthquake magnitude, M P(max). Realistic and usable maximum magnitude statistics are obtained from both whole process and part process statistical recurrence models. These approaches are extended to develop relationships between perceptible earthquake magnitude hazard and maximum magnitude recurrence models that are governed by asymptotic and finite return period properties, respectively. Integrated perceptibility curves illustrating the probability of a specific level of perceptible ground motion due to all earthquakes over the magnitude range extending from ?∞ to a magnitude M i are then developed from reviewing site-specific magnitude perceptibility. These lead on to achieving site-specific annual probability of exceedance hazard curves for the example cities of Sofia and Thessaloniki for both horizontal ground acceleration and ground velocity. Both the maximum credible earthquake magnitude M 3 and the most perceptible earthquake magnitude M P(max) are of importance to the earthquake engineer when approaching anti-seismic building design. Both forms of hazard are illustrated using contoured hazard maps for the region bounded by 39°–45°N, 19°–29°E. Patterns are observed for these magnitude hazard estimates—especially M P(max) specific to horizontal ground acceleration and horizontal ground velocity—and compared to inferred patterns of crustal deformation across the region. The full geographic region considered is estimated to be subject to a maximum credible earthquake magnitude M 3—estimated using cumulative seismic moment release statistics—of 7.53 M w, calculated from the full content of the adopted earthquake catalogue, while Bulgaria’s capital, Sofia, is estimated a comparable value of 7.36 M w. Sofia is also forecast most perceptible earthquake magnitudes for the lowest levels considered for horizontal ground acceleration of M PA(50) = 7.20 M w and horizontal ground velocity of M PV(5) = 7.23 M w for a specimen focal depth of 15 km.  相似文献   

6.
In this study, soil response was carried out for the Greater Delhi region. A folded Proterozoic formation was identified as Delhi ridge, passes through its central part along SSW–NNE direction, and appears to be a main geomorphic feature for the study area. The Delhi ridge is an exposed quartzite rock of about 10–100 m wide and ~25 km long with gentler dipping both toward east and west. We have considered the exposed part as an outcrop side near the ridge axis and the dipping area as rigid base away from the ridge axis for ground motion study during the occurrence of the 25 November 2007 earthquake with magnitude M L 4.3 (Richter scale) that occurred at Delhi–Haryana State boundary. The degree of shaking was very strong and reported major cracks in the buildings near the epicenter area. We have studied the soil response parameters at the surface level, considering horizontally stratified soil layers above rigid base. The equivalent linear method was used for soil response analysis at 25 sites in Greater Delhi area. The peak amplification factors vary from 3.2 to 5.9 and peak resonance frequency varies from 1.2 to 5.3 Hz. The correlation among the peak amplification factor (A) and frequency (f) was empirically established as A = 0.36f + 3.60. Increasing peak amplification factor was found at sites with increasingly thicker alluvium deposit with lower frequency contains ground motion and vice versa. Seismic zoning map was also reconstructed for peak amplification factors and predominant periods for the study area for the mitigation purposes of earthquake damage. The average shear wave velocity up to 30 m soil depth is also obtained for site classification. The average velocity to 30 m [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] is a widely used parameter for classifying sites for predicting their potentiality to amplify seismic shaking. A lower value [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] thus yields a more conservative estimate of ground motion, which generally increases as $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ decreases. Present estimate of $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ varies from 315 to 419 m/s. In this study, we have identified two site classes C and D, as per National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. The city planner or engineers can directly use these data for site-specific assessment during retrofitting of the existing structure, demolition of the old buildings and design a new structure to avoid major destruction of the buildings due to future earthquake.  相似文献   

7.
Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s.  相似文献   

8.
Earthquake is the main driving factor of landslides, and a large number of empirical formulas for seismic parameters have been proposed. This article studies a rock avalanche triggered by a paleoearthquake and two trial trenches in Yongji, Shanxi Province. Six quartz samples were collected from different parts on the top of the boulder, and the youngest 10Be exposure age is 1173 ± 123 years, which is considered as the occurrence time of the rock fall. The trenches excavated near the boulder infer that there was an earthquake between 2000 ± 110 and 465 ± 45 cal a bp in the north Zhongtiao Shan (NZS) fault with a maximum vertical displacement of 1.5 m and the surface rupture length (SRL) of ~35 km corresponding to a magnitude (M S) of 6.70 ± 0.12 based on the displacement. Taking into account the occurrence time and minimum magnitude triggering the rock fall, the latest paleoearthquake revealed by trenches may be the forcing factor. Furthermore, according to historical records of Yongji, the earthquake of magnitude 6 in ad 793 is in consistency with the occurrence time and magnitude of the earthquake triggering the landslide. Therefore, the rock fall is related to the paleoearthquake revealed by the trenches, which may be the 793 Yongji earthquake.  相似文献   

9.
The earthquake of 6 October 1987 (M = 6.6), which occurred near the Shipunsky Cape, Kamchatka, was the largest crustal event in the vicinity of the main city of Kamchatka — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky — during the last three decades. It was followed by numerous aftershocks. This earthquake allowed us to test the effectiveness of the seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka, including the seismological, geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys. The seismic survey provided the location and source nature of the main shock and aftershocks and the seismic environment of the main shock. The geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys have yielded data on the response to earthquakes of the Earth's surface deformations, water level, and chemical elements concentration in the underground water. As a result, the following data were obtained:

u

  • The earthquake of 6 October had a seismic moment 4–10 E18 Nm, thrust type of faulting and the source volume of 20 × 20 × 10 km3. The maximum intensity was VI–VII (MSK-64 scale) and maximum acceleration 88 cm/s2.
  • Before this event, a relative increase in the number of the upper mantle (depth more than 100 km) moderate magnitude earthquakes during 5 years and a one-year period of seismic quiescence for small shallow earthquakes, were recognized. Significant anomalies in HCO3 and H3BO3 concentrations in the underground waters were observed in the wells a week before the main shock.
    •   相似文献   

    10.
    Seismic ground motion caused by earthquakes mainly affects the constructions and structures around its area of influence. In this context, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a scientific step towards the safety analysis of any major construction such as nuclear power plant. Thus, the present study focused to estimate seismic hazard level at different probabilities for Kakrapar nuclear power plant located in the Western India. The hazard curves for the study area are developed following the procedure of PSHA suggested by Cornell–McGuire. Three source zones, Narmada-Tapti zone (NTZ), Rann of Kuchchh (ROK), and west passive margin (WPM), are classified on the basis of seismicity and tectonic setting of the study area. The estimated maximum magnitude (m max) for NTZ, ROK, and WPM are 6.9 ± 0.57, 6.5 ± 0.64, and 6.1 ± 0.64, respectively. Logic tree approach has been used for the development of hazard curves to account the epistemic uncertainties associated with the analysis. For maximum credible earthquake [MCE, i.e., the probability of exceedance of 2 % in 50 years (return period of ~2,500 years)], the peak spectral acceleration (i.e., PSA at 0.2 s) expected around 5 km of the Kakrapar nuclear power plant (site) is 0.23 g from all source zones; however, at exact site location, it is 0.18 g. The PSA values due to NTZ, ROK, and WPM based on MCE are 0.22, 0.065, and 0.052 g, respectively. In case of design-based earthquake (DBE, i.e., 50 % probability in 50 years (return period of ~110 years)), the calculated maximum spectral acceleration (SA) from all source zones is about 0.045 g. The PSA distribution for the DBE from the NTZ has reached a maximum value of 0.042 g; however, PSA for ROK and WPM is considerably low with a maximum value of 0.022 and 0.021 g, respectively. Considering the MCE and DBE, the estimated PSA at 0.2 s has a highest value of ~0.23 g from all source zones. Spectral accelerations (SAs) correspond to different periods are presented, and SA plots for NTZ zone can be considered as response spectra for the KAPS site. Deaggregation of PSHA in the present study is also discussed. PGA values reported in seismic zonation map and global seismic hazard analysis program around the present study area range from 0.05 to 0.2 g which is slightly lower than the peak acceleration obtained in this study. The results of this study would facilitate in the performance of the site-specific seismic probabilistic safety analysis.  相似文献   

    11.
    Nearly 108-km lengths of Mersin shores are composed of natural beaches. The region is located between major tourist centers. In the future, this region is thought to be built with a great number of tourist facilities. Turkey’s largest seaport, Ata? refinery (Mersin International Port) is located in Mersin. Recently, Mersin is becoming of great importance to Turkey as the latter plans to construct its second nuclear power plant in the region. Therefore, as nuclear power plants are built to withstand environmental hazards, it is very important to analyze the seismic risk of the areas where the nuclear power plant will be constructed. The region is located between the East Anatolian Fault Zone and Center Anatolian Fault Zone. Based on the Turkey Earthquake Regions Map, Mersin is divided into second-, third-, and fourth-degree earthquake regions. In this study, we sampled earthquakes of magnitude of 4.0 or greater between 01 Jan 1900 and 31 Dec 2010 in the area; seismic hazard of Mersin province was estimated with probabilistic and statistical methods. The study area was selected as the coordinates between 36.03° and 37.42° North and 32.57° and 35.16° East. On the study area, different scaled magnitude values in the last 110 years converted to a common scale (Mw) and earthquake catalog was re-compiled and also seismic sources that may affect the area was determined. In this study, the seismic hazards of the region were obtained using the methods of probability and statistics. This study used three different attenuation relationships. Using the attenuation relationships suggested by Boore et al. (Seismol Res Lett 68(1):128–153, 1997) and Kalkan and Gülkan (Earthquake Spectra 20:1111–1138, 2004), the largest ground acceleration which corresponds to a recurrence period of 475 years was found as 0.08–0.09 g and Akkar and Ça?nan (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100 6:2978–2995, 2010), 0.04 g for bedrock at the central district. When computing for seismic hazard curves, Mut district appears to have a greater seismic hazard compared with other districts. Moreover, according to the attenuation relationships, seismic hazard curves corresponding to a recurrence period of 475 years were obtained for the Mersin Central, Mut, Erdemli, Çaml?yayla, and Tarsus districts.  相似文献   

    12.
    Site classification studies play a vital role in earthquake hazard assessment since in situ ground conditions substantially affect the characteristics of incoming seismic waves during earthquakes. Flat areas along the coast and rivers generally consist of thick layers of soft clay and sand. Such deposits amplify certain frequencies of ground motion, thereby attributing to an increase in the damage due to an earthquake. Hence, site classification studies have been carried out using shear-wave velocity, ground response, and corresponding amplification at 83 locations in Pondicherry, a coastal city in India. The present study is aimed at estimating the shear-wave velocity through multichannel analysis of surface waves and to compute the average shear-wave velocity (V S 30 ), stiffness, and N values using empirical relations. Further, site-response studies (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio) were conducted to estimate the ground-response frequencies and corresponding amplifications through Nakamura technique. From the results, the study area was classified into three types, i.e., C-class: with V S 30 in the range of 360–760 m/s, D-class: with V S 30 in the range of 180–360 m/s, and E-class: with V S 30  < 180 m/s following the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Programme norms (BSSC in NEHRP recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings and other structures (FEMA 450), part 1: provisions. Building Seismic Safety Council for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, 2003). Finally, a site classification map for Pondicherry region has been prepared, which can be used in urban planning and strengthening of existing structures against future earthquakes.  相似文献   

    13.
    Northeast India is one of the most highly seismically active regions in the world with more than seven earthquakes on an average per year of magnitude 5.0 and above. Reliable seismic hazard assessment could provide the necessary design inputs for earthquake resistant design of structures in this region. In this study, deterministic as well as probabilistic methods have been attempted for seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states at bedrock level condition. An updated earthquake catalogue was collected from various national and international seismological agencies for the period from 1731 to 2011. The homogenization, declustering and data completeness analysis of events have been carried out before hazard evaluation. Seismicity parameters have been estimated using G–R relationship for each source zone. Based on the seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major subzones. Region specific correlations were used for magnitude conversion for homogenization of earthquake size. Ground motion equations (Atkinson and Boore 2003; Gupta 2010) were validated with the observed PGA (peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. In this study, the hazard is estimated using linear sources, identified in and around the study area. Results are presented in the form of PGA using both DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) and PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) with 2 and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, and spectral acceleration (T = 0. 2 s, 1.0 s) for both the states (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years). The results are important to provide inputs for planning risk reduction strategies, for developing risk acceptance criteria and financial analysis for possible damages in the study area with a comprehensive analysis and higher resolution hazard mapping.  相似文献   

    14.
    We estimate the energetic and spatial characteristics of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region using a variety of seismic and statistical parameters, as a first step in a detailed investigation of regional seismic hazard. We divide the region into five seismotectonic regions, comprising the most important tectonic domains in the studied area: the Moroccan Meseta, the Rif, the Tell, the High Plateau, and the Atlas. Characteristic seismic hazard parameters, including the Gutenberg–Richter b-value, mean seismic activity rate, and maximum possible earthquake magnitude, were computed using an extension of the Aki–Utsu procedure for incomplete earthquake catalogs for each domain, based on recent earthquake catalogs compiled for northern Morocco and northern Algeria. Gutenberg–Richter b-values for each zone were initially estimated using the approach of Weichert (Bull Seismol Soc Am 70:1337–1346, 1980): the estimated b-values are 1.04 ± 0.04, 0.93 ± 0.10, 0.72 ± 0.03, 0.87 ± 0.02, and 0.77 ± 0.02 for the Atlas, Meseta, High Plateau, Rif, and Tell seismogenic zones, respectively. The fractal dimension D 2 was also estimated for each zone. From the ratio D 2/b, it appears that the Tell and Rif zones, with ratios of 2.09 and 2.12, respectively, have the highest potential earthquake hazard in the region. The Gutenberg–Richter relationship analysis allows us to derive that in the Tell and Rif, the number of earthquake with magnitude above Mw 4.0, since 1925 normalized to decade and to square cell with 100-km sides is equal to 2.6 and 1.91, respectively. This study provides the first detailed information about the potential seismicity of these large domains, including maximum regional magnitudes, characteristics of spatial clustering, and distribution of seismic energy release.  相似文献   

    15.
    Gulf of Aqaba is recognized as an active seismic zone where many destructive earthquakes have occurred. The estimation of source parameters and coda Q attenuation are the main target of this work. Fifty digital seismic events in eight short-period seismic stations with magnitude 2.5–5.2 are used. Most of these events occurred at hypocentral depths in the range of 7–20 km, indicating that the activity was restricted in the upper crust. Seismic moment, M o, source radius, r, and stress drop, Δσ, are estimated from P- and S-wave spectra using the Brune’s seismic source model. The average seismic moment generated by the whole sequence of events was estimated to be 4.6E?+?22 dyne/cm. The earthquakes with higher stress drop occur at 10-km depth. The scaling relation between the seismic moment and the stress drop indicates a tendency of increasing seismic moment with stress drop. The seismic moment increases with increasing the source radius. Coda waves are sensitive to changes in the subsurface due to the wide scattering effects generating these waves. Single scattering model of local earthquakes is used to the coda Q calculation. The coda with lapse times 10, 20, and 30 s at six central frequencies 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24 Hz are calculated. The Q c values are frequency dependent in the range 1–25 Hz, and are approximated by a least squares fit to the power law [ $ {Q_c}(f) = {Q_o}{(f/{f_o})^\eta } $ ]. The average of Q c values increases from 53?±?10 at 1.5 Hz to 700?±?120 at 24 Hz. The average of Q o values ranges from 13?±?1 at 1.5 Hz to 39?±?4 at 24 Hz. The frequency exponent parameter η ranges between 1.3?±?0.008 and 0.9?±?0.001.  相似文献   

    16.
    An earthquake of magnitude 6.9 (M w) occurred in the Sikkim region of India on September 18, 2011. This earthquake is recorded on strong-motion network in Uttarakhand Himalaya located about 900 km away from the epicenter of this earthquake. In this paper acceleration record from six far-field stations has been used to compute the source parameters of this earthquake. The acceleration spectra of ground motion at these far-field stations are strongly affected by both local site effects and near-site anelastic attenuation. In the present work the spectrum of S-phase recorded at these far-field stations has been corrected for anelastic attenuation at both source and site and the site amplification terms. Site amplifications at different stations and near-site shear wave attenuation factor have been computed by the technique of inversion of acceleration spectra given by Joshi et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 169:1821–1845, 2012a). For estimation of site amplification and shear wave quality factor [Q β (f)] at the recording sites, ten local events recorded at various stations between July 2011 and December 2011 have been used. The obtained source spectrum from acceleration records is compared with the theoretical source spectrum defined by Brune (J Geophys Res 76:5002, 1970) at each station for both horizontal components of the records. Iterative forward modeling of theoretical source spectrum gives the average estimate of seismic moment (M o), source radius (r o) and stress drop (Δσ) as (3.2 ± 0.8) × 1026 dyne cm, 13.3 ± 0.8 km and 59.2 ± 8.8 bars, respectively, for the Sikkim earthquake of September 18, 2011.  相似文献   

    17.
    Mumbai city, the economical capital of India, is located on the west coast of stable intra-plate continental region of Peninsular India which has an experience of significant historical earthquakes in the past. The city stood as the fourth most populous city in the world. Recent seismo-tectonic studies of this city highlighted the presence of active West coast fault and Chiplun fault beneath the Deccan basalt. In the present study, spatial variability of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai region (latitudes of 18.85–19.35°N and longitudes of 72.80–73.15°E at a grid spacing of 0.05°) which includes Mumbai city, Suburban, part of Thane district and Navi Mumbai, in terms of ground motion parameters; peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0-s period for 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years are generated. The epistemic uncertainty in hazard estimation is accounted by employing seven different ground motion prediction equations developed for worldwide shallow crustal intra-plate environments. Further, the seismic hazard results are deaggregated for Mumbai (latitude 18.94°N, longitude 72.84°E) to understand the relative contributions of earthquake sources in terms of magnitude and distance. The generated hazard maps are compared with the zoning specified by Indian seismic code (IS1893: Part 1 in Indian standard criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, Part 1—General provisions and buildings. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, 2002) for rocky site. Present results show an underestimation of potential seismic hazard in the entire study region by non-probabilistic zoning prescribed by IS1893: Part 1 with significantly higher seismic hazard values in the southern part of Navi Mumbai.  相似文献   

    18.
    Antakya city is at risk because of strong earthquakes occurring in the area, and different soil conditions that can produce variation of the ground motion amplification. Microzonation of cities provides a basis for site-specific hazard analysis in urban settlements. In particular, seismic microzonation can be provided by means of detailed seismic assessment of the area, including earthquake recordings and geological studies. In this paper, we propose a preliminary microzonation map for the city of Antakya, based on the variation of the dominant periods and shear velocities of the sediments covering the area. The periods are retrieved from microtremor measurements conducted at 69 sites, using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique. The results of microtremor analysis were compared with data obtained from refraction microtremor (ReMi) measurements at four profiles crossing the studied area. According to the classification of dominant periods, Antakya city can be divided into five zones, probably prone to different levels of seismic hazard. The shorter natural periods are in inner Antakya and both the sides of Asi River (i.e., northern and southern parts). The eastern and western parts of Antakya have maximum dominant periods. The V s 30 values were calculated by using the ReMi method along the profiles. Antakya city has V s 30 values in the range of category C of the national earthquake hazard reduction programme site classification.  相似文献   

    19.
    Hamouda  Amr Z. 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(1):465-479
    The entrance of the southern Suez Gulf of the Red Sea is known to be an area of high seismic activity in Egypt. The high rate of seismic activity in this area is mainly related to the adjustment in motion at the triple junction between the African plate, the Arabian plate, and the Sinai microplate. The present study attempts to estimate the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for Hurghada site. This was done in two steps; the first one is by estimating specific parameters for the site, such as the mean seismic activity, λ, the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, b, and the maximum regional magnitude, m max. The second step is by selecting a ground motion parameter that is applicable to Hurghada site. The procedure permits the combination of both historical and recent instrumental data. The results of the hazard assessment, expressed as the worst case scenario, detect that Hurghada is exposed to the maximum credible earthquake event of magnitude m max = 7.1 ± 0.31, at hypocentral distance of 31.6 ± 10 km. The possibility of the maximum Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), which occurred in relation to this event at Hurghada site, is equal to 0.29 g. The mean return periods with the selected accelerations for Hurghada, a horizontal acceleration of 0.1 g, is expected to occur once every 74–106 years, with an average of one every 90 years. This result which obtained from the hazard assessment can be used as an input data for a seismic risk assessment.  相似文献   

    20.
    A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in North East India is presented in this paper to evaluate the ground motion at bedrock level. Analyses were performed considering the available earthquake catalogs collected from different sources since 1731–2010 within a distance of 500 km from the political boundaries of the states. Earthquake data were declustered to remove the foreshocks and aftershocks in time and space window and then statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness. Based on seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major seismogenic zones and subsequently seismicity parameters (a and b) were calculated using Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship. Faults data were extracted from SEISAT (Seismotectonic atlas of India, Geological Survey of India, New Delhi, 2000) published by Geological Survey of India and also from satellite images. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.05° × 0.05° (approximately 5 km × 5 km), and the hazard parameters (rock level peak horizontal acceleration and spectral accelerations) were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 500 km. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were carried out for Tripura and Mizoram states using the predictive ground motion equations given by Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003) and Gupta (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 30:368–377, 2010) for subduction belt. Attenuation relations were validated with the observed PGA values. Results are presented in the form of hazard curve, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and uniform hazard spectra for Agartala and Aizawl city (respective capital cities of Tripura and Mizoram states). Spatial variation of PGA at bedrock level with 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years has been presented in the paper.  相似文献   

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