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利用热带太平洋海气耦合异常模式的３０ａ模拟结果，对模式ＥＮＳＯ的变化性及多重时间尺度过程进行了细致分析，建立了一ＥＮＳＯ循环多重时间尺度过程相互作用的非线性相似（Ａｎａｌｏｇ）模型，并提出了ＥＮＳＯ循环主周期形成的一种可能机制。指出：和观测事实类似，模式ＥＮＳＯ过程确实涉及到三种时间尺度，即３—４ａ主周期振荡（ＬＦ）、准两年振荡（ＱＢ）和年循环（ＡＣ）；其中，ＱＢ过程是线性海气耦合系统的本征模态，年循环（ＡＣ）对其形成没有本质的影响；３—４ａ主周期振荡（ＬＦ）是一非线性系统的自激振荡现象，其形成是线性系统的本征模即ＱＢ过程通过非线性机制尤其是通过大气辐合反馈加热的“单向性”过程在ＱＢ的暖态产生的减频增幅所致；平均年循环（ＡＣ）虽然不能对ＥＮＳＯ循环形成有本质影响，但它可明显影响ＥＮＳＯ循环的具体振幅和位相，使得ＥＮＳＯ循环具有明显的不规则性并对季节循环具有明显的“锁相”特征；ＥＮＳＯ变化性确是ＬＦ、ＱＢ以及ＡＣ多重时间尺度相互作用形成的。本文提出的ＥＮＳＯ循环时间尺度选择机制不仅解释了主周期振荡的形成过程，而且也较好地解释了ＥＮＳＯ变化的谱，因此，这一机制更接近于观测事实。 相似文献
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一种新的ENSO循环负反馈机制 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文利用包含海洋表面边界层和大气辐合反馈过程的热带太平洋海气耦合异常模式的30年模拟结果，通过对模式ENSO循环演变特征和正负反馈机制的细致分析揭示出了ENSO循环形成的一种新的负反馈过程。指出:ENSO循环的正反馈机制是不稳定海气相互作用过程，且这一不稳定过程的发展在暖态中明显强于冷态；ENSO循环的负反馈机制在冷暖态中表现不同，在冷态消亡过程中，这种负反馈过程主要表现为暖的西传Rossby波经西边界反射产生的暖的东传Kelvin波来抑制冷位相不稳定发展的，但在暖态消亡过程中，不存在类似的纬向波作用过程，其负反馈过程主要表现为在海气耦合不稳定充分发展时伴随的赤道两侧冷水上翻过程的加强以及非线性过程的衰减作用共同抑制了不稳定的发展，并最终使系统从暖态恢复至冷态。本文得出的ENSO循环暖位相中的负反馈机制和近年来国外提出的“时滞振子”理论明显不同。 相似文献
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利用发展的包含海洋表面边界展和大气辐合反馈过程的热带太平洋海气耦合距平模式，对ＥＮＳＯ循环进行了模拟。通过３０ａ积分，用合模式所展示的热带太平洋海气耦合系统的ＥＮＳＯ循环的水平结构演变特征和观测事实甚为一致，成功地模拟出了ＥＮＳＯ循环的冷暖态的发生发展、衰亡及相互转换等各个位相的动力和热力场的水平结构及其对季节循环的依赖性特征。本文数值模拟结果表明，ＥＮＳＯ循环的主要动力学过程可由热带海气相互作用系统自身所确定。ＥＮＳＯ循环的正确模拟是揭示其形成机制的前提。 相似文献
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LIN Wan-Tao 《大气和海洋科学快报》2009,2(1):1-6
In this paper,the influence of the El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on the sensitivity of nonlinear factors in the numerical simulation is investigated by conducting numerical experiments in a simple air-sea coupled model for ENSO prediction.Two sets of experiments are conducted in which zonal nonlinear factors,meridional nonlinear factors,or both are incorporated into the governing equations for the atmosphere or ocean.The results suggest that the ENSO cycle is very sensitive to the nonlinear factor of the governing equation for the atmosphere or ocean.Thus,incorporating nonlinearity into air-sea coupled models is of exclusive importance for improving ENSO simulation. 相似文献
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Systematic model error remains a difficult problem for seasonal forecasting and climate predictions. An error in the mean state could affect the variability of the system. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the mean state on the properties of ENSO. A set of coupled decadal integrations have been conducted, where the mean state and its seasonal cycle have been modified by applying flux correction to the momentum-flux and a combination of heat and momentum fluxes. It is shown that correcting the mean state and the seasonal cycle improves the amplitude of SST inter-annual variability and also the penetration of the ENSO signal into the troposphere and the spatial distribution of the ENSO teleconnections are improved. An analysis of a multivariate PDF of ENSO shows clearly that the flux correction affects the mean, variance, skewness and tails of the distribution. The changes in the tails of the distribution are particularly noticeable in the case of precipitation, showing that without the flux correction the model is unable to reproduce the frequency of large events. For the inter-annual variability the momentum-flux correction alone has a large impact, while the additional heat-flux correction is important for the teleconnections. These results suggest that the current forecasts practices of removing the forecast bias a-posteriori or anomaly initialisation are by no means optimal, since they can not deal with the strong nonlinear interactions. A consequence of the results presented here is that the predictability on annual time-ranges could be higher than currently achieved. Whether or not the correction of the model mean state by some sort of flux correction leads to better forecasts needs to be addressed. In any case, flux correction may be a powerful tool for diagnosing coupled model errors and predictability studies. 相似文献
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全球海洋大气耦合环流模式中的ENSO特征对气候背景态改变的敏感性 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
文中利用一个高分辨率全球海-气耦合环流模式设计两组长期积分试验,揭示了在不同气候背景态下热带太平洋年际变化特征及模式ENSO循环控制机理的差异。通过分析海表温度、上层海洋热容量和低层风场异常的年际变化特征及其和赤道中东太平洋海表温度异常的关系,揭示了基于不同气候背景场的ENSO循环的不同演变过程。结果表明:ENSO年际变率特征(包括振幅、频率等)对气候背景态相当敏感,在不同的背景场下ENSO循环的控制模态可以明显不同。试验表明,当热带太平洋东冷西暖的背景热力梯度接近多年气候平均时,模式ENSO循环表现为所谓的“时滞振子”模态控制,而随着东西向背景热力梯度显著减小,ENSO循环则可以表现为驻波模态控制。研究结果为认识年代际背景变化影响年际ENSO循环的机理提供了一种启示。 相似文献
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ENSO机理及其预测研究 总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19
资料分析研究表明ENSO(El Ni?o和La Ni?a)实际上是热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环,而次表层海温距平的循环是赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的,赤道西太平洋的异常纬向风又主要由异常东亚冬季风所激发。因此可以将ENSO的机理视为主要是由东亚季风异常造成的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环。同时分析还表明,热带西太平洋大气季节内振荡(ISO)的明显年际变化,作为一种外部强迫,对ENSO循环起着十分重要的作用;El Ni?o的发生同大气ISO的明显系统性东传有关。资料分析也表明,El Ni?o持续时间的长短与大气环流异常有密切关系。 用非线性最优化方法研究El Ni?o－南方涛动(ENSO)事件的可预报性问题,揭示了最容易发展成ENSO事件的初始距平模态,即条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)型初始距平;找出能够导致显著春季可预报性障碍(SPB),且对ENSO预报结果有最大影响的一类初始误差——CNOP型初始误差,进而探讨耦合过程的非线性在SPB研究中的重要作用,提出了关于ENSO事件发生SPB的一种可能机制;用CNOP方法揭示了ENSO强度的不对称现象,探讨ENSO不对称性的年代际变化问题,提出ENSO不对称性年代际变化的一种机制;建立了关于ENSO可预报性的最大可预报时间下界、最大预报误差上界和最大允许初始误差下界的三类可预报性问题,分别从三个方面揭示ENSO事件的春季可预报性障碍现象,比较有效地量化了模式ENSO事件的可预报性。 利用中国科学院大气物理研究所地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室的ENSO预测系统,研究了海洋资料同化在ENSO预测中的应用,该系统可以同时对温、盐剖面资料和卫星高度计资料进行同化。并且在模式中采用次表层上卷海温的非局地参数化方法,可有效地改进ENSO模拟水平。采用集合卡曼滤波(Ensemble Kalman Filter,EnKF)同化方法以及在集合资料同化中“平衡的”多变量模式误差扰动方法为集合预报提供更加精确和协调的初始场,ENSO预报技巧得到提高。 相似文献
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热带太平洋线性海气耦合系统的主模与ENSO 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文利用包含海洋表面边界层、线性海洋大气动力学以及完整的关于不均匀气候态线性化SST预报方程的热带太平洋海气耦合模式， 在真实的气候背景态和参数域内，研究了海气耦合系统的特征值问题，确定了线性耦合系统主模的特征周期及其稳定性特征，进而揭示了主模和ENSO的关系。结果表明:准两年振荡是线性海气耦合系统中的最不稳定模态，且只有该模态类似于ENSO水平结构。因此，准两年振荡很可能是海气耦合系统固有的最根本性的振荡过程。本文也对准两年振荡的形成与年循环的关系以及它在ENSO时间尺度形成中的作用进行了讨论。 相似文献
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Summary By using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model with an oceanic surface boundary layer, including linear atmospheric and oceanic dynamics and linearized SST prognostic equation with respect to spatially varying climatological background states, we have investigated the eigenvalue problem of the linearized coupled system in the tropical Pacific, including the characteristic periods, horizontal structures, temporal-spatial evolution and instability of the unstable interannual oscillation characteristic modes and their associations with ENSO. The main results show that the quasi-biennial (QB) oscillation was found to act as the most unstable mode in the tropical Pacific coupled air-sea system. Only the most unstable QB mode displays the ENSO-like structure and temporalspatial evolution, and its existence seems likely to have no essential dependence on the climatological annual cycle (AC). Unfortunately, from the linearized coupled system we have not derived a most unstable mode relevant to the observed principle mode with the preferred 3–4 year lower-frequency (LF) oscillation period in the real world ENSO variability. Therefore, we infer that the LF mode would likely result from certain nonlinear interaction, in which the QB mode that acts as the shortest ENSO cycle could be fundamentally important. Also, we believe that the results in present work could be helpful to fully understand the multiple time scales and the associated mechanism responsible for the real world ENSO variability.With 7 Figures 相似文献
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With the Zebiak-Cane （ZC） model, the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）. The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model. By analyzing the behavior of CNOPtype errors, we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak E1 Nifio events in the ZC model, the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP. For the relatively strong E1 Nino events, the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities. Also, our results suggest that the error growth of E1 Nifio in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO. The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth. The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most difficult. A linear singular vector （LSV） approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO, but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model. This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes. CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty. That is to say, the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error. This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation. It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill. 相似文献
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With the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model, the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model. By analyzing the behavior of CNOP- type errors, we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak EI Nino events in the ZC model, the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP. For the relatively strong EI Nino events, the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities. Also, our results suggest that the error growth of EI Nino in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO. The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth. The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most difficult. A linear singular vector (LSV) approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO, but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model. This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes. CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty. That is to say, the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error. This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation. It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill. 相似文献
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Intermediate models of the coupled tropical atmosphere?Cocean system have been used to illuminate the physics of interannual climate phenomenon such as El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific and to explore how the tropics might respond to a forcing such as changing insolation (Milankovitch) or atmospheric carbon dioxide. Importantly, most of the intermediate models are constructed as anomaly models: models that evolve on a prescribed climatological mean state, which is typically prescribed and done so on a rather ad hoc basis. Here we show how the observed climatological mean state fields [ocean currents and upwelling, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric surface winds] can be incorporated into a linearized intermediate model of the tropical coupled atmosphere?Cocean system: called Linear Ocean?CAtmosphere Model (LOAM), it is a linearized version of the Zebiak and Cane model. With realistic, seasonally varying mean state fields, we find that the essential physics of the ENSO mode is very similar to that in the original model and to that in the observations and that the observed mean fields support an ENSO mode that is stable to perturbations. Thus, our results provide further evidence that ENSO is generated and maintained by stochastic (uncoupled) perturbations. The method that we have outlined can be used to assimilate any set of ocean and atmosphere climatological data into the linearized atmosphere?Cocean model. In a companion paper, we apply this same method to incorporate mean field output from two global climate models into the linearised model. We use the latter to diagnose the physics of the leading coupled mode (ENSO) that is supported by the climate models, and to illuminate why the structure and variance in the ENSO mode changes in the models when they are forced by early Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions. 相似文献
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Assoc. Prof. Dr. X. -Q. Yang Dr. Q. Xie Prof. Y. -Q. Ni Dr. S. -S. Huang 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1996,61(3-4):153-186
Summary A coupled ocean-atmosphere anomaly model has been developed for simulating ENSO cycle and its mechanism-study in this paper. After a long model run, the coupled model is successful in demonstrating ENSO-like irregular interannual variability and corresponding horizontal spatial structures. Based on the simulated results, the dynamics and the thermodynamics of the model ENSO cycle have been investigated, and in particular the negative feedback mechanisms that act to oppose instability of air-sea interaction, inducing termination of warm and cold events, have been examined. A detailed analysis of the oceanic wave dynamical properties and heat budget of the SST changes in a representative cycle suggest that the negative feedback mechanism to check the unstable growth of a warm event obviously differs from that of a cold event. The mechanism that induces decay and termination of a cold event is closely related to the negative, delayed feedback effect produced by the oceanic dynamical wave reflection at the western boundary. However, independent of the wave reflection effect, the negative feedback mechanism by which the coupled system returns from a warm event is associated with a slowly eastward-propagating coupling mode. Accompanied with the strong unstable development of the equatorial positive SST anomaly, the anomalous upwelling of cold water generated off the equator and the nonlinear anomalous meridional advection generated in the equator west of instability area jointly restrain the instability and finally plunge the system from a mature warm phase into a weak cold phase. A comparison between the results from the present model and the previous works is also discussed in this paper.With 16 Figures 相似文献
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The impact of the warm SST bias in the Southeast Pacific (SEP) on the quality of seasonal and interannual variability and ENSO prediction in a coupled GCM is investigated. The reduction of this bias is achieved by means of empirical heat flux correction that is constant in time. It leads to a wide range of changes in the tropical Pacific climate including enhanced southeast trades, well-defined dry zone in the SEP, better simulation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and stronger cross-equatorial asymmetry of the mean state in the eastern Pacific. As a result of the mean climate correction, significant improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of the oceanic and atmospheric states are also observed both at the equator and basin-wide. Due to more realistic simulation of the seasonal evolution of the cold tongue, tropical convection and surface winds in the corrected version of the model, phase-lock of ENSO to the annual cycle looses its strong semi-annual component and becomes quite similar to the observed, although the amplitude of ENSO is reduced. Zonal wind stress response to the SST anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific also becomes more realistic. ENSO retrospective forecast experiments conducted with the directly coupled and the flux-corrected versions of the model demonstrate that deficiencies in the seasonal evolution of the cold tongue/Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone complex (that were largely due to the SEP bias in this model) and the related errors in the ENSO phase-lock to the annual cycle can seriously degrade ENSO prediction. By reducing these errors, ENSO predictive skill in the coupled model was substantially enhanced. 相似文献
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Sébastien Masson Pascal Terray Gurvan Madec Jing-Jia Luo Toshio Yamagata Keiko Takahashi 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(3-4):681-707
This paper explores the impact of intra-daily Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability on the tropical large-scale climate variability and differentiates it from the response of the system to the forcing of the solar diurnal cycle. Our methodology is based on a set of numerical experiments based on a fully global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation in which we alter (1) the frequency at which the atmosphere sees the SST variations and (2) the amplitude of the SST diurnal cycle. Our results highlight the complexity of the scale interactions existing between the intra-daily and inter-annual variability of the tropical climate system. Neglecting the SST intra-daily variability results, in our CGCM, to a systematic decrease of 15% of El Ni?o—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude. Furthermore, ENSO frequency and skewness are also significantly modified and are in better agreement with observations when SST intra-daily variability is directly taken into account in the coupling interface of our CGCM. These significant modifications of the SST interannual variability are not associated with any remarkable changes in the mean state or the seasonal variability. They can therefore not be explained by a rectification of the mean state as usually advocated in recent studies focusing on the diurnal cycle and its impact. Furthermore, we demonstrate that SST high frequency coupling is systematically associated with a strengthening of the air-sea feedbacks involved in ENSO physics: SST/sea level pressure (or Bjerknes) feedback, zonal wind/heat content (or Wyrtki) feedback, but also negative surface heat flux feedbacks. In our model, nearly all these results (excepted for SST skewness) are independent of the amplitude of the SST diurnal cycle suggesting that the systematic deterioration of the air-sea coupling by a daily exchange of SST information is cascading toward the major mode of tropical variability, i.e. ENSO. 相似文献
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ENSO循环及相关研究综述 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
ENSO（El Nino ＆ South Oscillation）是热带海气相互作用的强信号,对全球气候异常有着重要影响。本文着重论述近几十年来ENSO循环与相关海一气系统相互作用的研究现状。首先从线性、非线性两方面阐述了ENSO循环的正负反馈机制;其次,详细论述了西太平洋暖池、热带大气环流和中高纬海一气系统与ENSO循环相互作用的物理过程和机制;最后,从统计预测和数值预测两方面对ENSO的预测现状进行了评述。 相似文献
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Application of the Analogue-Based Correction of Errors Method in ENSO Prediction 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2 
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下载免费PDF全文 In this study, a method of analogue-based correction of errors（ACE） was introduced to improve El Ni？o-Southern Oscillation（ENSO） prediction produced by climate models. The ACE method is based on the hypothesis that the flow-dependent model prediction errors are to some degree similar under analogous historical climate states, and so the historical errors can be used to effectively reduce such flow-dependent errors. With this method, the unknown errors in current ENSO predictions can be empirically estimated by using the known prediction errors which are diagnosed by the same model based on historical analogue states. The authors first propose the basic idea for applying the ACE method to ENSO prediction and then establish an analogue-dynamical ENSO prediction system based on an operational climate prediction model. The authors present some experimental results which clearly show the possibility of correcting the flow-dependent errors in ENSO prediction, and thus the potential of applying the ACE method to operational ENSO prediction based on climate models. 相似文献
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热带太平洋年代际平均气候态变化与ENSO循环 总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20
文中用观测的热带太平洋海表温度资料、风应力资料和OLR资料，通过多时间尺度分析，将与ENSO有关的变化分为3个主要的分量，一是2～7a的ENSO循环尺度，二是8～20a的年代际尺度，三是20a以上的平均气候态变化。讨论了热带太平洋这种平均气候态变化的主要特征以及与ENSO循环的关系，并用耦合模式的数值试验来研究平均气候态的变化对ENSO循环的影响。结果表明热带太平洋的平均气候态在20世纪70年代后期发生了一次由冷态向暖态的变化，主要增暖区是沿赤道以及热带东太平洋的，海表温度变化最大中心可以达到0.6℃。伴随着海表温度的变化，赤道西太平洋的西风距平加强，赤道东太平洋的东风距平也加强，在赤道中太平洋形成了一个加强的辐合中心。年代际平均气候冷暖态的变化对ENSO最直接的线性影响是使ElNio位相增加，而形成ENSO冷位相和暖位相的不对称。另一方面较暖的平均气候态可能引起海洋和大气之间的耦合加强，导致ENSO循环振荡有所加强。 相似文献