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1.
Summary The previous investigation of the probability of occurrence of largest earthquakes in the European area continued by applying the Gumbel theory of largest values to three periods 1901–1930, 1901–1955 and 1901–1967, respectively. The values of magnitudes which will be exceeded with the probabilityP=1%, 2% and 10% were determined from the lines fitting the distributions of magnitudes and corresponding probabilities for all three periods. It was assumed that the relationship between the differences M P% [k](67)=M k,P%–M 67,P% (k=30, 55, 67) and the observation period follow the hyperbolic law. This tendency was used for the estimation of the probability line corresponding to an infinite observation period.Presented at The Sixth UMC Symposium on Geophysical Theory and Computers in Copenhagen in 1969.  相似文献   

2.
A predictive equation to estimate the next interoccurrence time () for the next earthquake (M6) in the Ometepec segment is presented, based on Bayes' theorem and the Gaussian process.Bayes' theorem is used to relate the Gaussian process to both a log-normal distribution of recurrence times () and a log-normal distribution of magnitudes (M) (Nishenko andBuland, 1987;Lomnitz, 1964). We constructed two new random variablesX=InM andY=In with normal marginal densities, and based on the Gaussian process model we assume that their joint density is normal. Using this information, we determine the Bayesian conditional probability. Finally, a predictive equation is derived, based on the criterion of maximization of the Bayesian conditional probability. The model forecasts the next interoccurrence time, conditional on the magnitude of the last event.Realistic estimates of future damaging earthquakes are based on relocated historical earthquakes. However, at the present time there is a controversy between Nishenko-Singh and Gonzalez-Ruiz-Mc-Nally concerning the rupturing process of the 1907 earthquake. We use our Bayesian analysis to examine and discuss this very important controversy. To clarify to the full significance of the analysis, we put forward the results using two catalogues: (1) The Ometepec catalogue without the 1907 earthquake (González-Ruíz-McNally), and (2) the Ometepec catalogue including the 1907 earthquake (Nishenko-Singh).The comparison of the prediction error reveals that in the Nishenko-Singh catalogue, the errors are considerably smaller than the average error for the González-Ruíz-McNally catalogue of relocated events.Finally, using the Nishenko-Singh catalogue which locates the 1907 event inside the Ometepec segment, we conclude that the next expected damaging earthquake (M6.0) will occur approximately within the next time interval =11.82 years from the last event (which occurred on July 2, 1984), or equivalently will probably occur in April, 1996.  相似文献   

3.
Summary The response of the atmosphere to a diurnally oscillating thermal drive, asymmetric with respect to the equator, is investigated. It is found that the solutions ofLaplace's tidal equation do not form a complete set; all of them being orthogonal to the associated Legendre polynomial,P 2 1 (cos ), being the latitude. As an extension ofLaplace's theorem for gravitationally excited ocean tides to thermally driven atmospheric tides, it is shown that a diurnal drive whose latitude dependence is given byP 2 1 gives rise to no surface pressure oscillation.  相似文献   

4.
Summary Measuring, with the aid of two filters, the instantaneous intensity of the solar radiation in two wave lengths ( B = 0.44 , R = 0.64 ) by means of a sun photometer designed byVolz, we carried out determinations of the decadic turbidity coefficientB (=0.5 ) and the wave length exponent of the haze extinction for Mexico City. Observations were made for almost two and a half years (1960 to 1962 period). A seasonal size distribution in both parameters was found. Although the data thus obtained are provenient of a contaminated atmosphere, comparison of our data is made with those found for higher latitudes ofÅngström, Schüepp andVolz. The height of the homogeneous haze layerH D was calculated showing pronounced variations for a given wind direction. The maximum and minimum values ofB enable us to get, by the first approximation, the aerosol size distribution ofJunge for our latitudes. However, for exceptional very clear days having maximum actinometric intensity of the solar radiation the sensitivity of the microamperimeter in theVolz sun photometer fails.  相似文献   

5.
Fundamental-mode Rayleigh wave attenuation data for stable and tectonically active regions of North America, South America, and India are inverted to obtain several frequency-independent and frequency-dependentQ models. Because of trade-offs between the effect of depth distribution and frequency-dependence ofQ on surface wave attenuation there are many diverse models which will satisfy the fundamental-mode data. Higher-mode data, such as 1-Hz Lg can, however, constrain the range of possible models, at least in the upper crust. By using synthetic Lg seismograms to compute expected Lg attenuation coefficients for various models we obtained frequency-dependentQ models for three stable and three tectonically active regions, after making assumptions concerning the nature of the variation ofQ with frequency.In stable regions, ifQ varies as , where is a constant, models in which =0.5, 0.5, and 0.75 satisfy fundamental-mode Rayleigh and 1-Hz Lg data for eastern North America, eastern South America, and the Indian Shield, respectively. IfQ is assumed to be independent of frequency (=0.0) for periods of 3 s and greater, and is allowed to increase from 0.0 at 3 s to a maximum value at 1 s, then that maximum value for is about 0.7, 0.6, and 0.9, respectively, for eastern North America, eastern South America, and the Indian Shield. TheQ models obtained under each of the above-mentioned two assumptions differ substantially from one another for each region, a result which indicates the importance of obtaining high-quality higher-mode attenuation data over a broad range of periods.Tectonically active regions require a much lower degree of frequency dependence to explain both observed fundamental-mode and observed Lg data. Optimum values of for western North America and western South America are 0.0 if is constant (Q is independent of frequency), but uncertainty in the Lg attenuation data allows to be as high as about 0.3 for western North America and 0.2 for western South America. In the Himalaya, the optimum value of is about 0.2, but it could range between 0.0 and 0.5. Frequency-independent models (=0.0) for these regions yield minimumQ values in the upper mantle of about 40, 70, and 40 for western North America, western South America, and the Himalaya, respectively.In order to be compatible with the frequency dependence ofQ observed in body-wave studies,Q in stable regions must be frequency-dependent to much greater depths than those which can be studied using the surface wave data available for this study, andQ in tectonically active regions must become frequency-dependent at upper mantle or lower crustal depths.On leave from the Department of Geophysics, Yunnan University, Kunming Yunnan, People's Republic of China  相似文献   

6.
Superposed epoch studies have been carried out in order to determine the ionospheric response at mid-latitudes to southward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This is compared with the geomagnetic response, as seen in the indices Kp, AE and Dst. The solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic data used were hourly averages from the years 1967–1989 and thus cover a full 22-year cycle in the solar magnetic field. These data were divided into subsets, determined by the magnitudes of the southward turnings and the concomitant increase in solar wind pressure. The superposed epoch studies were carried out using the time of the southward turning as time zero. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere is studied by looking at the F-layer critical frequencies, foF2, from hourly soundings by the Slough ionosonde and their deviation from the monthly median values, foF2. For the southward turnings with a change in Bz of Bz > 11.5 nT accompanied by a solar wind dynamic pressure P exceeding 5 nPa, the F region critical frequency, foF2, shows a marked decrease, reaching a minimum value about 20 h after the southward turning. This recovers to pre-event values over the subsequent 24 h, on average. The Dst index shows the classic storm-time decrease to about –60 nT. Four days later, the index has still to fully recover and is at about –25 nT. Both the Kp and AE indices show rises before the southward turnings, when the IMF is strongly northward but the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced. The average AE index does register a clear isolated pulse (averaging 650 nT for 2 h, compared with a background peak level of near 450 nT at these times) showing enhanced energy deposition at high latitudes in substorms but, like Kp, remains somewhat enhanced for several days, even after the average IMF has returned to zero after 1 day. This AE background decays away over several days as the Dst index recovers, indicating that there is some contamination of the currents observed at the AE stations by the continuing enhanced equatorial ring current. For data averaged over all seasons, the critical frequencies are depressed at Slough by 1.3 MHz, which is close to the lower decile of the overall distribution of foFl values. Taking 30-day periods around summer and winter solstice, the largest depression is 1.6 and 1.2 MHz, respectively. This seasonal dependence is confirmed by a similar study for a Southern Hemisphere station, Argentine Island, giving peak depressions of 1.8 MHz and 0.5 MHz for summer and winter. For the subset of turnings where Bz > 11.5 nT and P 5 nPa, the response of the geomagnetic indices is similar but smaller, while the change in foF2 has all but disappeared. This confirms that the energy deposited at high latitudes, which leads to the geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances following a southward turning of the IMF, increases with the energy density (dynamic pressure) of the solar wind flow. The magnitude of all responses are shown to depend on Bz. At Slough, the peak depression always occurs when Slough rotates into the noon sector. The largest ionospheric response is for southward turnings seen between 15–21 UT.  相似文献   

7.
Summary To clarify the ionization equilibrium near the ground, simultaneous measurements of the rate of ion pair production (q), the concentrations of small ions (n) and condensation nuclei (Z), and the diffusion coefficient of condensation nuclei (D) were carried out at several stations in the central area of Japan. The total rate of ion pair production (q) was estimated fromq=q(Rn)+q(Tn)+q()+q(+CR). The value ofq was estimated as 10J to 20J. The mean life () and the effective attachment coefficient () of small ions were also estimated at each station. Correlations amongn, Z, q, andD were also studied. If we take the variation ofD into consideration, the correlation was expressed by the simple formula;q=n Z. The dependence of upon size of nuclei (2r) were also measured, and was found to correlate well withD orr.  相似文献   

8.
Summary Five ofBerlage's eight empirical rules concerning the Southern Oscillation (1957) may be united in one general rule with regard to the different influence of solar activity during 11-year sunspot cycles with annual maximum numberR above or below 85 (Tables 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6). The opposite character of strong and weak 11-year cycles of solar activity is also present in the 7-year period (Tables 7, 8, 9 and 10; Fig. 1). Finally it is shown that a similar contrast obviously exists in the appearance of polar lights (Table 11, Fig. 2 and 3).The results have not been statistically tested. Because of the rather small number of solar periods involved and the complicated character of the relations found, I could not find a satisfactory statistical method to operate with. I may emphasize, however, the converging evidence enlarging considerably the statistical significance of my results.  相似文献   

9.
Summary Utilising two years data collected at two tropical coastal stations, Madras (13°04N, 80°15E) and Waltair (17°42N, 83°18E) and for one tropical continental station, Nagpur (21°09N, 79°07E), the authors have re-evaluated the constants ofBrunt's regression equation. Analyses of the observations for Waltair and Nagpur show good correlation coefficients (r) between the values of the effective emissivity of the atmosphere (the effective emissivity is the ratio of incoming long-wave sky radiation at the surfaceR s , to black body radiation T 4) and the square root values of surface vapour pressuree (mb). The value ofr for Waltair from radiometer observations is 0.98. It is also determined for Waltair and Nagpur from Ångström compensation pyrgeometer observations as 0.83 and 0.91 respectively. A low correlation co-efficient 0.56 is obtained for Madras. It might be due to higher surface vapour pressure values at Madras than at Waltair and Nagpur. The applicability of the reduced regression equations are examined for different years for the different stations. The agreement between the computed values with the new regression equations and the observed long-wave sky radiation at the surface seems to be quite good.  相似文献   

10.
Résumé Les observations des variations luni-solaires de la gravité en divers points du globe ne donnent pas des valuers très concordantes pour le facteur lié au module de rigidité de la Terre. On démontre ici que la répartition croissante des densités vers le centre de la Terre a pour conséquence d'amplifier encore les effets dus à l'élasticité. En adoptant la répartition deBullen, on aurait =1+0.244h>1, (h étant le premier nombre deLove). En outre une relation simple lie les facteurs et (déviations de la verticale). La valuer deh déduite de telles observations ne peut conduire directement à une valeur significative du module de rigidité du globe car il faut encore tenir compte des variations de la période et de l'amplitude du mouvement chandlérien du pôle.
Summary Observations of luni-solar variations of gravity at various points of the Earth do not give values in agreement for the factor bound to the Earth's modulus of rigidity. It is shown here that the law of increasing of density toward the center of the Earth emphasizes the effect of elasticity: following the law ofBullen, we should have =1+0.244h>1, (h is the firstLove's number). Further, there is a simple relation between the factors and (deviations of the vertical). The value ofh deduced from such observations could not give directly a significative value of the modulus of rigidity because we must take into account the variations of period and amplitude of the chandlerian motion of the pole.
Riassunto Le osservazioni delle variazioni luni-solari della gravità in diversi punti della Terra non dànno valori concordanti per il fattore legato al modulo di rigidità del Globo. Si dimostra che la ripartizione crescente della densità verso il centro della Terra ha per conseguenza di amplificare ancora gli effetti dell'elasticità; adottando la legge diBullen, abbiamo =1+0.244h>1, (h essendo il primo numero diLove). Inoltre, una semplice relazione lega i fattori e (deviazioni della verticale). Il valore dih dedotto da tali osservazioni non può condurre ad un valore significativo del modulo di rigidità del Globo poiché bisogna considerare anche le variazioni del periodo e dell'ampiezza del moto polare diChandler.
  相似文献   

11.
We present some results of the analytical integration of the energy rate balance equation, assuming that the input energy rate is proportional to the azimuthal interplanetary electric field, Ey, and can be described by simple rectangular or triangular functions, as approximations to the frequently observed shapes of Ey, especially during the passage of magnetic clouds. The input function is also parametrized by a reconnection-transfer efficiency factor (which is assumed to vary between 0.1 and 1). Our aim is to solve the balance equation and derive values for the decay parameter compatible with the observed Dst peak values. To facilitate the analytical integration we assume a constant value for through the main phase of the storm. The model is tested for two isolated and well-monitored intense storms. For these storms the analytical results are compared to those obtained by the numerical integration of the balance equation, based on the interplanetary data collected by the ISEE-3 satellite, with the values parametrized close to those obtained by the analytical study. From the best fit between this numerical integration and the observed Dst the most appropriate values of are then determined. Although we specifically focus on the main phase of the storms, this numerical integration has been also extended to the recovery phase by an independent adjust. The results of the best fit for the recovery phase show that the values of may differ drastically from those corresponding to the main phase. The values of the decay parameter for the main phase of each event, m, are found to be very sensitive to the adopted efficiency factor, , decreasing as this factor increases. For the recovery phase, which is characterized by very low values of the power input, the response function becomes almost independent of the value of and the resulting values for the decay time parameter, r, do not vary greatly as varies. As a consequence, the relative values of between the main and the recovery phase, m/r, can be greater or smaller than one as varies from 0.1 to 1.  相似文献   

12.
Summary History and results of a 41/2-years-expedition to Argentine. A determination of the sun's «temperature» can only be given by the laws ofBoltzmann-Stefan andWien, because the temperature of the different layers is different. In the measurements of the sun's radiation the law ofBoltzmann-Stefan was introduced (T 4, where is a constant, andT the Kelvin-Temperature) while in the passed 100 years the difference between the sun's and the instruments radiation was taken as radiation, although this difference was arbitrariously variable with the instruments temperature. The effect of the vertical exchange of airmasses, on the radiation of the sun and the radiation of the air between the sun and the instrument was cleared. With these corrections one can not receive more as the difference between the so called solar constant and the albedo of the atmosphere. If the highest values are used (smallest albedo) the approximated value of the solar constant becomes 2.4, corresponding well to the value, derived from the supposed temperature of the sun.  相似文献   

13.
A theoretical model is presented which allows computing the efficiency with which aerosol particles of radius 0.1r10 m are collected by simple ice crystal plates of radius 50a c 640 m in air of various relative humidities, temperatures and pressures. Particle capture due to thermophoresis, diffusiophoresis and inertial impaction are considered. It is shown that the capture efficiency of an ice crystal in considerably affected by phoretic effects in the range 0.1r1 m. For aerosol particles ofr>1 m the efficiency is strongly controlled by the flow field around the crystal and the density of the aerosol material. Trajectory analysis also predicts that aerosol particles are preferentially captured by the ice crystal rim. Our theoretica results are found to agree satisfactorily with the laboratory studies presently available. Comparison shows that for the same pressure, temperature and relative humidity of the ambient air ice crystal plates are better aerosol particle scavengers than water drops.  相似文献   

14.
Earlier attenuation studies for the South American continent indicate that for Sn and Lg waves there is low attenuation in the shield region east of the Andes, whereas in the west of South America, with some exceptions, there is high attenuation. Those studies, however, were nonquantitative. In this study theQ 0 (1-Hz values) for Lg waves for South America are presented, based on a scattering model ofAki (1969) as extended byHerrmann (1980) for the coda waves of shallow local and near-regional earthquakes. The results of the codaQ method are compared with those obtained byNuttli's method (1973). TheseQ 0 values are in good agreement with the apparentQ 0 of Lg waves obtained by the latter method. The data were obtained from over 100 local and regional earthquakes recorded by 12 WWSSN stations throughout continental South America. They provided a range of frequencies from 0.4 to 1.4 Hz, for which the frequency dependence ofQ was investigated by assumingQ=Q 0(f/f 0). The observed data indicate that the tectonic region of western South America is characterized by lowQ 0 and a large frequency-dependent factor , the values ranging from 150 to 350 and 0.4 to 0.7, respectively. TheQ 0 values increase in the shield region east of the Andes, but frequency dependence decreases. The average crustalQ 0 for north and central Argentina ranges from 420 to 580, and ranges from 0.2 to 0.3. TheQ 0 is larger in the Brazil region, ranging from 580 to 980, and varies from 0.0 to 0.2. In the lower-attenuation region of eastern South America higher values of attenuation correlate with greater thickness of the sedimentary layers.  相似文献   

15.
Summary Regional variations have been indicated in the slope of theP travel-time curve in the shadow zone of the earth's core. Further study is needed since the uncertainties of the slope are large, especially for the observations from North American stations. There is no significant difference between themean slope of theP travel-time curve in the 95°102.9 range and those obtained byJeffreys, andJeffreys andBullen. However, there is a significant difference between themean slope in the 103° to 135° range as obtained in this study, and those obtained byJeffreys andBullen, and in a later revision byJeffreys. Themean travel-time curve ofP in the shadow zone of the earth's core should be lowered. A trial travel-time table is given with amean slope of 4.41 sec/deg. This table is in close agreement with the times obtained byGutenberg andRichter, and with the trial travel-times ofLehmann. Under the assumption of diffraction the longitudinal wave velocity has been determined to be 13.7 km/sec at the core-mantle boundary.This paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Seismological Society of America Reno, Nevada, 1966.  相似文献   

16.
Data from 41 moderate and large earthquakes have been used to derive a scaling law for fault parameters. Fault lengthL, widthW and areaS are empirically related byLS andWS where 0.6<<0.7, 0.3<<0.4 and +=1. These relations indicate that the growth pattern of earthquake rupture zones is statistically self-affine. It is also found that these relations are similar to the relation derived from a diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) model with anisotropic sticking probability. This suggests that a modified DLA model could describe the evolution of earthquake rupture zones.  相似文献   

17.
Effects of temperature and sliding rate on frictional strength of granite   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  
Layers of artificial granite gouge have been deformed on saw-cut granite surfaces inclined 30° to the sample axes. Samples were deformed at a constant confining pressure of 250 MPa and temperatures of 22 to 845°C. The velocity dependence of the steady-state coefficient of friction (ss) was determined by comparing sliding strengths at different sliding rates. The results of these measurements are consistent with those reported bySolberg andByerlee (1984) at room temperature andStesky (1975) between 300 and 400°C. Stesky found that the slip-rate dependence of (ss) increased above 400°C. In the present study, however, the velocity dependence of (ss) was nearly independent of temperature.  相似文献   

18.
Summary This paper is an attempt towards determination of station adjustments for Shillong and Delly Observatories from considerations of a large number ofP n residuals. Station adjustments toJeffreys-Bullen travel time tables for Shillong comes to about 4 seconds and for Delhi 2 seconds respectively for 20°.  相似文献   

19.
Summary In a recent paperHunt andTanner [3]2) investigated the waves generated by a steadily moving two-dimensional pressure distribution, which was zero ahead of the disturbance and a constantp 0, tehind it, these regions being joined smoothly by a cubic function. Only those solutions with supercritical flow in both regions were considered, these were found to lead to an asymmetric solitary wave.This result is now extended to take account of the possibility of subcritical flow in either or both the regions, that is when there is a cnoidal wave train either behind and or ahead of the main solitary wave crest.The wave profiles are determined by the iterative method employed in the previous paper. This together with the wave drag associated with each system is computed for various values ofp 0/U 2, where is the fluid density andU a typical velocity.  相似文献   

20.
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