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1.
The statistical model of the forecast (complex postprocessing) of surface air temperature with the lead time up to eight days is constructed using the results of the integration of hydrodynamic atmospheric models. The model is adapted to the area of the “Baikonur” using the method of central typing that allows increasing the accuracy of operational forecasts. The analysis of climate characteristics needed for constructing the proper statistical model for this area is given using both observational data for recent 25 years and the data of WMO (from the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydro-meteorological Information-World Data Center). Computed are the estimates of the accuracy of operational forecasts.  相似文献   

2.
Summary A test of relative homogeneity of annual temperatures at Blue Hill and other stations in the surroundings was carried out by using several statistical criteria. The results indicated that the annual temperatures at Blue Hill were somehow different from those of the surrounding stations. To find an explanation of this circumstance several statistical methods, likeStudent's t-test, the significance of the correlation coefficient, etc. were used. The conclusion could be drawn that the annual temperatures at Blue Hill show a different detailed trend from the annual temperatures at the surrounding stations. It was shown also that the trend of annual temperatures differ for stations even not very remote each from other.
Zusammenfassung Die jährlichen Lufttemperaturen in Blue Hill wurden mit den jährlichen Lufttemperaturen der Stationen in der Umgebung verglichen und so in bezug auf relative Homogenität geprüft; es wurden dabei verschiedene statistische Kriterien angewandt. Das Resultat zeigt, daß die jährlichen Lufttemperaturen in Blue Hill verschieden, sind von denen der Umgebung. Um eine Erklärung dafür zu finden, wurden verschiedene statistische Methoden angewandt, wieStudent's t-Test, die Beurteilung des Korrelationskoeffizienten usw. Die Untersuchungen zeigten, daß die jährlichen Lufttemperaturen in Blue Hill einen anderen Detailverlauf aufweisen als in der Umgebung. Dabei ergab sich, daß Stationen trotz verhältnismäßig geringen Entfernungen voneinander einen verschiedenen Verlauf der jährlichen Lufttemperaturen aufweisen können.
Résumé L'auteur a comparé les moyennes annuelles de la température de l'air à Blue Hill à celles des stations environnantes et en a étudié l'homogénéite relative; il a utilisé à cet effet différents critères. Il en résulte que ces températures annuelles diffèrent de celles des autres stations des environs, ce qui a conduit l'auteur à les étudier par les tests statistiques usuels (testt deStudent, coefficient de corrélation etc.). Ces recherches ont montré que les températures annuelles de Blue Hill ont, dans le détail, un comportement particulier. On a aussi constaté que les températures annuelles de stations relativement peu éloignées varient différemment.

Blue Hill Meteorogical Observatory, Harvard University

With 1 Figure

Now associated with the U. S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D. C.

Dedicated to Dr.Victor Conrad to his 80th birthday.  相似文献   

3.
Gregor Betz 《Climatic change》2012,111(2):473-485
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4.
Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950–1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.  相似文献   

5.
A heavy rainfall event that occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) during July11–13 2000 is explored in this study. The potential/stream function is used to analyze the upstream "strong signals" of the water vapor transport in the Tibetan Plateau(TP). The studied time period covers from 2000 LST 5 July to 2000 LST 15 July(temporal resolution: 6 hours). By analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the water vapor flux, vorticity and divergence prior to and during the heavy rainfall event, the upstream "strong signals" related to this heavy rainfall event are revealed. A strong correlation exists between the heavy rainfall event in the YRB and the convective clouds over the TP. The "convergence zone" of the water vapor transport is also identified, based on correlation analysis of the water vapor flux two days and one day prior to, and on the day of, the heavy rainfall. And this "convergence zone" coincides with the migration of the maximum rainfall over the YRB. This specific coupled structure actually plays a key role in generating heavy rainfall over the YRB. The eastward movement of the coupled system with a divergence/convergence center of the potential function at the upper/lower level resembles the spatiotemporal evolution of the heavy rainfall event over the YRB. These upstream "strong signals" are clearly traced in this study through analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the potential/stream function of upstream water vapor transport.  相似文献   

6.
Global forest governance has recently seen the emergence of a timber legality regime. In an aim to regulate global timber trade flows, the US, the EU and Australia adopted laws prohibiting illegally harvested timber from entering their markets. While some view this as a milestone for environmental and social stewardship in the global forest sector, the effects of the regime remain contested.In order to better understand likely effects of the regime, we apply the Discursive Agency Approach to analyze discursive dynamics of policy making among the stakeholders involved in the creation of each law and their effects on governance design and implementation.Based on 120 interviews in the US, Australia, the EU and with global organizations/institutions, as well as 19 informal conversations, 300 documents, and participant observation data, our results show that legality is a powerful concept in forest governance. Drawing attention away from sustainability, it enables discursive divides between the global North and South as well as between wood producers and importers. These divides were crucial for the emergence of the legality regime. While some forest industry groups perceived the new laws as an opportunity, others saw them as a threat. In all three regions this led to coalitions between supportive industry factions and environmental groups. These coalitions were based on a complementarity of goals; environmentalists aimed to protect “Third World” forests while industry groups aimed to protect “First World” markets against growing competition from these former regions. Yet each coalition was composed differently and employed distinct – albeit related – discursive strategies in policy making. This affected the design of each law and its implementation. The shift from sustainability towards legality re-surfaces prominently in implementation. Stakeholder discussions range from coercive “threatening” to more learning-oriented “educating” approaches. We conclude by discussing the effects these discursive struggles in Australia, the EU and the US have on the global timber legality regime.  相似文献   

7.
The ordinary multidimensional reductive perturbation method is generalized so as to apply to the general case including the dissipative factor. With this the corresponding Cubic-Schrbdinger equation is deduced, and by the preliminary study of its solution, it shows that it is more admissible to consider atmospheric meso-scale systems as the nonlinear Cubic-Schrbdinger waves.With suitable boundary and initial conditions, the Cubic-Schrodinger equation is numerically integrated so as to investigate the possible dynamic mechanism as well as the impacts of the nonlinear action, turbulent friction and topogrphy to the formation of the LLJ. The results indicate that the downward transfer of the momentum and the effect of the surface friction are responsible for the concentration of the momentum in the layer between 850 and 700 hPa. The location of the horizontal concentration of momentum depends on the propagation of momentum, in the process the inertia-gravity internal wave is very important, whereas turbule  相似文献   

8.
In order to study the characteristics of cold frontal motion over the arbitrary topography, the velocity of cold frontal movement is derived by using the one layer shallow-water model. The results show that there exist the retardation in upwind side and rapid descent in the lee slope when the cold front crosses the topography.  相似文献   

9.
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10.
The Surface Friction and the Flow over Mountain   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
The flow over mountain is quite complicated. There are a lot of papers on this problem and a lot of progresses have been made. However, in the most of these papers, just the dynamics contributions of mountain have been analysed; the effect of the friction is often neglected. Since the frictional effect is always associated with flow, especially when it flows over the mountain. The study shows that the friction is small in the magnitude but it is not a negligible effect because it changes the features of the flow. In the case of super-or sub-critical flow, there are two extremes: one maximum, one minimum of the fluid surface on the lee-side of the mountain, while in the inviscid fluid, there is just one extreme. The frictional effect should neither be too strong nor too weak to make the situation happened according to the investigation of this paper.  相似文献   

11.
In situ buoy observation data spanning four years(2008-2011) were collected and used to perform a composite analysis of the monsoon onset process in the Bay of Bengal(BoB).The sea surface temperature(SST) in the central BoB increases dramatically during the monsoon transition period and reaches its annual maximum just before the onset of the monsoon.This process is illustrated by the northward-propagating deep convection phase of the intraseasonal oscillation and the establishment of a steady southwest wind.It is argued that the SST peak plays a potential role in triggering the onset of the monsoon in the BoB and its vicinity.The general picture of the BoB monsoon onset summarized here reveals the possibility of regional land-ocean-atmosphere interaction.This possibility deserves further examination.  相似文献   

12.
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13.
ＴＨＥＥＦＦＥＣＴＯＦＴＨＥＳＬＩＧＨＴＬＹＩＮＣＬＩＮＥＤＴＥＲＲＡＩＮＯＮＴＨＥＷＩＮＤＳＨＥＡＲＮＥＡＲＴＨＥＳＵＲＦＡＣＥＺｈａｎｇＹｏｎｇｐｉｎｇ（张永萍），ＬｉＸｉｎｇｓｈｅｎｇ（李兴生），ＺｈｏｕＸｉｕｊｉ（周秀骥）ａｎｄＢｉａｎＬｉｎ...  相似文献   

14.
The climatic effects of the stratospheric volcanic ash are simulated. The model we used is a primitive equation model with the P-σ incorporated coordinate system. The model has 5 layers in the atmosphere and 2 layers in the soil. The volcanic ash is introduced to the first (highest) model layer with a fixed optical thickness of 0.1275. Two comparative numerical experiments with and without the volcanic ash are made. Results show that the effects of the stratospheric volcanic ash on the formations of the mean climatic fields are much smaller than those of the land-sea distribution and the large scale topography. However, it does have contributions to the anomalies of the basic climatic states. The direct effect of the volcanic ash is to increase the temperature in the stratosphere. It can also influence the temperature and the height fields of isobaric surfaces, horizontal and vertical motions, precipitation and the surface climate through dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

15.
A new method of analysis namely, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon (June-September) Rainfall (ISMR) series. The method is efficient in extracting the statistically significant oscillations with periods 2.8 and 2.3 year from the white noise of the ISMR series. The study shows that 2.8 / 2.3 year cycle captures the variability of the ISMR related to Southern Oscillation / Quasi Biennial Oscillation. The temporal structure of these oscillations show that these are in phase in extreme (excess and drought) monsoon conditions as well as in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. Both these oscillations show minimum variability during the period 1920-1940 and there is an increasing trend in the variability of these oscillations in the recent decades. The study enables to obtain pure signal consisting of reconstructed time series using these two Oscillations, from the original white noise series.  相似文献   

16.
ＴＨＥＥＦＦＥＣＴＯＦＴＨＥＩＮＴＥＲＡＣＴＩＯＮＡＭＯＮＧＭＵＬＴＩ－ＳＣＡＬＥＳＹＳＴＥＭＳＡＮＤＴＨＥＡＳＹＭＭＥＴＲＩＣＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＡＮＤＴＨＥＲＭＯＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＳＴＲＵＣＴＵＲＥＯＦＴＲＯＰＩＣＡＬＣＹＣＬＯＮＥＯＮＩＴＳＴＲＡＣＫＸｕ...  相似文献   

17.
Summary The sign of the vector representing the atmospheric electric field has recently been subject of debate. For the sake of clarity, it is recommended to refer only to a normal or reversed clear-weather potential gradient.
Zusammenfassung Eine in letzter Zeit entstandene Diskussion darüber, welches Vorzeichen dem Vektor des atmosphärisch-elektrischen Feldes bzw. des Potentialgefälles zuerkannt werden soll, erscheint wenig sinnvoll. Zur Vermeidung künftiger Unklarheiten wird empfohlen, bei der atmosphärischen Elektrizität nur von normaler Schönwetterrichtung und umgekehrter Schönwetterrichtung des Feldes bzw. des Potentialgefälles zu sprechen.
Résumé Une récente discussion a porté sur le signe qui devait être attribué au vecteur du champ électrique atmosphérique respectivement de son gradient de potentiel. On recommande, pour éviter à l'avenir toute confusion, de ne parler en électricité atmosphérique et quand il s'agit du champ ou du gradient de potentiel, que de «direction normale de beau temps» et de «direction inversée de beau temps».

Dedicated to Dr.W. Mörikofer on the occasion of his 70th birthday.  相似文献   

18.
By analyzing the results of a realistic ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and conducting a series of idealized OGCM experiments, the dynamics of the Kuroshio Current System is examined. In the realistic configuration, the Kuroshio Current System is successfully simulated when the horizontal resolution of OGCMs is increased from 1/2° to 1/10°. The difference between the two experiments shows a jet, the model’s Kuroshio Extension, and a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic, “relative,” recirculation gyres (RRGs) on the northern and southern flanks of the jet. We call them recirculation gyres because they share some features with ordinary recirculation gyres in previous studies, and we add the adjective “relative” to emphasize that they may not be apparent in the total field. Similar zonal jet and RRGs are obtained also in the idealized model with a rectangular basin and a flat bottom with a horizontal resolution of 1/6°. The northern RRG is generated by the injection of high potential vorticity (PV) created in the viscous sublayer of the western boundary current, indicating the importance of a no-slip boundary condition. Since there is no streamline with such high PV in the Sverdrup interior, the eastward current in the northern RRG region has to lose its PV anomaly by viscosity before connecting to the interior. In the setup stage this injection of high PV is carried out by many eddies generated from the instability of the western boundary current. This high PV generates the northern RRG, which induces the separation of the western boundary current and the formation of the zonal jet. In the equilibrium state, the anomalous high PV values created in the viscous sublayer are carried eastward in the northern flank of the zonal jet. The southern RRG is due to the classical Rhines–Young mechanism, where low PV values are advected northward within the western boundary inertial sublayer, and closed, PV-conserving streamlines form to the south of the Kuroshio Extension, allowing slow homogenization of the low PV anomalies. The westward-flowing southern branch of this southern RRG stabilizes the inertial western boundary current and prevents its separation in the northern half of the Sverdrup subtropical gyre, where the western boundary current is unstable without the stabilizing effect of the southern RRG. Therefore, in the equilibrium state, the southern RRG should be located just to the north of the center of the Sverdrup subtropical gyre, which is defined as the latitude of the Sverdrup streamfunction maximum. The zonal jet (the Kuroshio Extension) and the northern RRG gyre are formed to the north of the southern RRG. This is our central result. This hypothesis is confirmed by a series of sensitivity experiments where the location of the center of the Sverdrup subtropical gyre is changed without changing the boundaries of the subtropical gyre. The locations of the zonal jets in the observed Kuroshio Current System and Gulf Stream are consistent as well. Sensitivities of the model Kuroshio Current System are also discussed with regard to the horizontal viscosity, strength of the wind stress, and coastline.  相似文献   

19.
The onset process of the tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) summer monsoon (TEIOSM) and its relationship with the cross-equatorial flows are investigated via climatological analysis. Climatologically, results indicate that the earliest onset process of the Asian summer monsoon occurs over the TEIO at pentad 22 (April 15–20). Unlike the abrupt onset of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, the TEIOSM onset process displays a stepwise advance. Moreover, a close relationship between the TEIOSM development and the northward push of the cross-equatorial flows over 80–90E is revealed. A difference vorticity center, together with the counterpart over the southern Indian Ocean, constitutes a pair of difference cyclonic vortices, which strengthens the southwesterly wind over the TEIO and the northerly wind to the west of the Indian Peninsula from the end of March to late May. Therefore, the occurrence of the southwesterly wind over the TEIO is earlier than its counterpart over the tropical western Indian Ocean, and the cross-equatorial flows emerge firstly over the TEIO rather than over the Somali area. The former increases in intensity during its northward propagation, which provides a precondition for the TEIOSM onset and its northward advance.  相似文献   

20.
With the Zebiak–Cane model, the present study investigates the role of model errors represented by the nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV) in the "spring predictability barrier"(SPB) phenomenon in ENSO prediction. The NFSV-related model errors are found to have the largest negative effect on the uncertainties of El Nio prediction and they can be classified into two types: the first is featured with a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies(SSTA), with the western poles centered in the equatorial central–western Pacific exhibiting positive anomalies and the eastern poles in the equatorial eastern Pacific exhibiting negative anomalies; and the second is characterized by a pattern almost opposite to the first type. The first type of error tends to have the worst effects on El Nin?o growth-phase predictions, whereas the latter often yields the largest negative effects on decaying-phase predictions. The evolution of prediction errors caused by NFSVrelated errors exhibits prominent seasonality, with the fastest error growth in spring and/or summer; hence,these errors result in a significant SPB related to El Nin?o events. The linear counterpart of NFSVs, the(linear) forcing singular vector(FSV), induces a less significant SPB because it contains smaller prediction errors. Random errors cannot generate an SPB for El Nio events. These results show that the occurrence of an SPB is related to the spatial patterns of tendency errors. The NFSV tendency errors cause the most significant SPB for El Nio events. In addition, NFSVs often concentrate these large value errors in a few areas within the equatorial eastern and central–western Pacific, which likely represent those areas sensitive to El Nio predictions associated with model errors. Meanwhile, these areas are also exactly consistent with the sensitive areas related to initial errors determined by previous studies. This implies that additional observations in the sensitive areas would not only improve the accuracy of the initial field but also promote the reduction of model errors to greatly improve ENSO forecasts.  相似文献   

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