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1.
In view of increasing environmental awareness and biodiversity conservation, understanding the main forcing mechanism driving biogeochemical cycles in coral reefs and lagoon coastal areas is a priority. La Ni?a events cause unbalanced situations in the Equatorial Pacific and result in enhanced precipitation in South West Pacific coastal areas. We investigated the impact of heavy rainfalls during the 2008 La Ni?a event on the New Caledonia lagoon using a 3D coupled on-line hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model. Simulations and data showed that the whole lagoon was impacted by river inputs and stronger hydrodynamics, enhancing chlorophyll-a concentration by a factor between 1.7 and 1.9. The coupled model provided new insights into plume transport, highlighting that eastern plumes can be advected northwards or can reach the South West Lagoon, depending on the balance between regional, tide-induced, and wind-induced surface currents. It also provided a synoptic view of lagoon biogeochemical-hydrodynamic response, when remote sensing data are not available due to cloud coverage.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract

The response of monthly 7-day low flow, monthly instantaneous peak flow, and monthly frequency of flood events to El Niño and La Niña episodes is investigated for 18 rivers that represent a diverse range of climatic types throughout New Zealand. A significant positive or negative deviation from the long-term average was observed in over half the possible combinations of river, streamflow index, and type of ENSO episode; significant deviations were most frequent in the case of low flow, especially during La Niña episodes. Patterns of streamflow response differ widely between rivers, and the response of a given river to individual ENSO episodes is very variable. The patterns of streamflow response to ENSO are consistent to some extent with the climatic effects of ENSO already identified by meteorologists. Two core regions can be defined in which streamflow tends to respond in the same way. These are in the northeast of the North Island, and in the axial ranges of the South Island, where there are significant effects of ENSO on the frequency and duration of rain-bearing northeasterly and westerly winds respectively. The patterns of response strongly reflect topography, and the exposure of catchments to predominant air masses.  相似文献   

3.
The latest cycle of volcanism on Tenerife has involved the construction of two stratovolcanoes, Teide and Pico Viejo (PV), and numerous flank vent systems on the floor of the Las Cañadas Caldera, which has been partially infilled by magmatic products of the basanite-phonolite series. The only known substantial post-caldera explosive eruption occurred 2 ka bp from satellite vents at Montaña Blanca (MB), to the east of Teide and at PV. The MB eruption began with extrusion of 0.022 km3 of phonolite lava (unit I) from a WNW-ESE fissure system. The eruption then entered an explosive subplinian phase. Over a 7–11 hour period, 0.25 km3 (DRE) of phonolitic pumice (unit II) was deposited from a 15 km high subplinian column, dispersed to the NE by 10 m/s winds. Pyroclastic activity also occurred from vents near PV to the west of Teide. Fire-fountaining towards the end of the explosive phase formed a proximal welded spatter facies. The eruption closed with extrusion of small volume domes and lavas (0.025 km3) at both vent systems. Geochemical, petrological data and Fe-Ti oxide geothermometry indicate the eruption of a chemically and thermally stratified magma system. The most mafic and hottest (875°C) unit I magma can yield the more evolved and cooler (755–825°C) phonolites of units II and III by between 7 and 11% fractional crystallization of an assemblage dominated by alkali feldspar. Analyses of glass inclusions from phenocrysts by ion microprobe show that the pumice was derived from the water-saturated roof zone of a chamber containing 3.0–4.5 wt.% H2O and abundant halogens (F0.35wt.%). Hotter, more mafic tephritic magma intermingled with the evolved phonolites in banded pumice, indicating the injection of mafic magma into the system during or just before eruption. Reconstruction ot the event indicates a small chamber chemically stratified by in situ (side-wall) crystallization at a depth of 3–4 km below PV. Although phonolite is the dominant product of the youngest activity of the Teide-PV system, there has been no eruption of phonolitic magma for at least 500 years from teide itself and for 2000 years from the PV system. Therefore there could be a large volume of highly evolved, volatile-rich magma accumulating in these magma systems. An eruption of fluorine-rich magma comparable with MB would have major damaging effects on the island.  相似文献   

4.
The influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on monthly mean river flows of 12 rivers in the extreme south of South America in the 20th century is analysed. The original dataset of each river is divided into two subsets, i.e. warm ENSO events or El Niño, and cold ENSO events or La Niña. The elements of the subsets are composites of 24 consecutive months, from January of the year when the ENSO event begins to December of the following year. The ENSO signal is analysed by comparing the monthly mean value of each subset to the long-term monthly mean. The results reveal that, in general, monthly mean El Niño (La Niña) river flows are predominantly larger (smaller) than the long-term monthly mean in the rivers studied. The anomalies are more evident during the second half of the year in which the event starts and the first months of the following year.  相似文献   

5.
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we demonstrate that the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events recorded in sea level variation occurs only during extreme episodes of El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Second, we explain that the asymmetry is controlled by certain regular cycles which have time-variable amplitudes. Gridded maps of sea level anomaly that form a spatial-temporal time series (spatial resolution: 1° × 1°, sampling interval: 1 week) spanning the time interval from 14/10/1993 to 18/04/2012 were used. We examined those time series and found that certain regular harmonic signals (periods: 365, 182, 120, 90 and 62 days) are dominant terms of their temporal variability. By subtracting those oscillations from sea level anomaly data, residuals were determined. Using skewness and kurtosis as measures of asymmetry and nonlinearity — after adopting 10-year moving window — we found that the extreme El Niño 1997/1998 has been a dominant driving force of the asymmetry and nonlinearity of El Niño/Southern Oscillation since the end of 1993. In order to detect residual signals that are responsible for the asymmetry, we applied the Fourier Transform Band Pass Filter and found that there are two important oscillations remaining in the residual sea level anomaly data, i.e. the annual and semiannual ones with time-varying amplitudes. We hypothesize that temporarily uneven amplitudes have meaningful impact on the aforementioned asymmetry.  相似文献   

6.
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7.
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8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1006-1020
Abstract

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0–3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.  相似文献   

9.
Simulation outputs were used to contrast the distinct evolution patterns between two types of El Niño. The modeled isotherm depth anomalies closely matched satellite sea surface height anomalies. Results for the El Niño Modoki (central Pacific El Niño) corresponded well with previous studies which suggested that thermocline variations in the equatorial Pacific contain an east–west oscillation. The eastern Pacific El Niño experienced an additional north–south seesaw oscillation between approximately 15° N and 15° S. The wind stress curl pattern over the west-central Pacific was responsible for the unusual manifestation of the eastern Pacific El Niño. The reason why the 1982/1983 El Niño was followed by a normal state whereas a La Niña phase developed from the 1997/1998 El Niño is also discussed. In 1997/1998, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) retreated faster and easterly trade winds appeared immediately after the mature El Niño, cooling the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific and generating the La Niña event. The slow retreat of the ITCZ in 1982/1983 terminated the warm event at a much slower rate and ultimately resulted in a normal phase.  相似文献   

10.
Bulletin of Volcanology -  相似文献   

11.
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12.
Water Resources - The river floods happening in populated areas are serious natural risks that give rise to human and economic losses. In order to predict the consequences of river floods and to...  相似文献   

13.
ABSTRACT

The hydrological response of shallow ponds to groundwater withdrawal has been of growing concern in the Doñana National Park (southern Spain) in recent decades. This study examines the role of groundwater in maintaining the hydroperiod (i.e. the hydrological regime) in the park’s main dune ponds, by quantifying the groundwater fluxes to/from them. The hydrological characterization was performed by applying different methodologies. Daily hydrological balances registered in the ponds revealed groundwater contributions ranging from 80% of the total water inflows (i.e. groundwater discharge) to a net groundwater recharge from the ponds to the aquifer, and enabled the studied water bodies to be classified as discharge or recharge systems. The recharge systems must have been influenced by the lowering of piezometric levels due to groundwater extraction for urban supply in a nearby coastal resort.  相似文献   

14.
Stochastic models are often fitted to historical data in order to produce streamflow scenarios. These scenarios are used as input data for simulation/optimization models that support operational decisions for water resource systems. The streamflow scenarios are sampled from probability distributions conditioned on the available information, such as recent streamflow data. In this paper we introduce a procedure for further conditioning the probability distributions by considering the recent measurements of climatic variables, such as sea temperatures, that are used to describe the occurrence of El Ni?o. We adopt an auto-regressive model and use the “El Ni?o information” to refine the parameter estimation process for each time step. The corresponding methodology is tested for the monthly energy time series, “inflowing” to the power plants of Colombia. This is a linear combination of streamflow values for the 18 most important rivers of the country.  相似文献   

15.
During rheomorphism subsequent to fallout deposition, a portion of the densely welded fallout of the La Grieta Member flowed back into the vent from where it was erupted, while the rest of it flowed down the outer slopes of the Las Cañadas caldera in Tenerife. The welded fallout and conduit-vent structure are physically connected and constitute a rare example of this type of deposits rooted to its feeder conduit and exposed in the caldera wall. The lower part of the vent-filling rheomorphic rocks shows gas bubbles and cavities that increase in size (up to 4 m) down vent. Bubbles are deformed against other bubbles, against the steep vent walls, flattened parallel to the flow foliation planes, and elongated parallel to the flow lineation and flow fold axes. The preservation of such giant bubbles, rather than their formation, seems to be a pretty unique feature of the phonolitic products investigated here and it is likely the result of the combination of factors that acted to preserve, in the surrounding of the glass transition interval, the sealing and the late stage cooling of a pressurized system. In addition, strain drop at the base of the vent-filling rheomorphic flow caused by flow stopping against vertical vent walls may have promoted rapid gas exsolution and the formation of large bubbles.  相似文献   

16.
A suite of 16 basanitic volcanic rocks, representing all stages in the evolution of the La Breña — El Jagüey (LBEJ) Maar Complex, has been studied petrographically and analyzed for mineral compositions and whole-rock major element, trace element, and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic compositions. Two feldspathic granulite xenoliths were also studied as possible lower-crustal contaminants to the LBEJ magmas. The volcanic rocks contain the stable minerals olivine, plagioclase, augite, and titanomagnetite±ilmenite, plus a diverse suite of xenocrusts derived from disaggregation of mantle xenoliths of spinel lherzolite (olivine, orthopyroxene, spinel) and lower-crustal granulite xenoliths (plagioclase, quartz, augite, ilmenite). Late-stage interstitial melts rich in Fe and Ti migrated into vesicles in several samples, forming coarse-grained segregation vesicles that are dominated by ilmenite blades up to 2 mm long. The whole-rock elemental data are typical of intra-plate basanitic rocks, with strong enrichments in large ion lithophile elements (i.e. K, Th, U) as well as high field strength elements (i.e. Nb, Ta) relative to mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) and estimates of primordial mantle abundances. Mg# increased systematically with time during the evolution of the LBEJ Maar Complex, from 57.0–58.2 in the pre-maar lavas to 59.1–63.8 in the post-maar lavas. Compatible elements (Ca, Sc, Cr, Co, Ni) correlate positively with Mg#, whereas a large group of incompatible elements (Al, Na, K, P, Rb, Sr, Zr, Nb, Ba, La, Ce, Sm, Hf, Ta, Th, U) correlate negatively with Mg#. These trends can be closely reproduced by simple models of fractional crystallization, provided that the incompatible element abundances of the parental, high-Mg# magmas are allowed minor variability. All successful fractionation models demand an important role for augite, despite its presence in the LBEJ volcanic rocks as only a late-stage microphenocrystic and groundmass mineral. Minor garnet fractionation is necessary to produce depletion of heavy rare earth element (REE) abundances in the pre-maar lavas, whose REE patterns cross those for the rest of the suite. The importance of augite and garnet fractionation indicate that the differentiation of the LBEJ magmas took place within the upper mantle, a conclusion that is supported by the presence of spinel lherzolite xenoliths in magmas from all stages in the evolution of the maar complex. Isotopic data for seven LBEJ volcanic rocks show the following ranges: 87Sr/86Sr 0.70327–0.70347, Nd 4.2–5.0, 206Pb/204Pb 18.60–18.81, 207Pb/204Pb 15.58–15.65, 208Pb/204Pb 38.19–38.58. Sr-Nd values are negatively correlated and form a trend parallel to the mantle array, overlapping the field for ocean island basalts (OIB). The LBEJ rocks have similar 87Sr/86Sr values but lower Nd compared to basanitic rocks from the US Basin and Range Province (BRP). Pb isotopic ratios are positively correlated and overlap the braod fields for MORB and OIB and the small fields for Mexican ore deposits and volcanic rocks from the active subduction-related Mexican Volcanic Belt. The LBEJ rocks have slightly more radiogenic Pb than basanitic rocks from the US BRP. Despite correlations among the isotopic ratios of the LBEJ suite, none of these ratios correlate with position in the eruption sequence, Mg#, or any other compositional parameter. The two lower-crustal xenoliths have high 87Sr/86Sr values (0.707, 0.710) and low Nd (-1.5,-8.0) compared to the LBEJ volcanic rocks, but their Pb isotopic compositions are only slightly more radiogenic than the volcanic rocks. These data do not support the widely held view that the lower crust is a major reservoir of unradiogenic Pb. In order to further constrain the role played by crustal contamination in generating the isotopic diversity in the LBEJ suite, we conducted an extensive investigation of Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic ratios for scoria clasts from different levels of a single scoria-fall horizon in the pyroclastic sequence related to the formation of La Breña Maar. Our results do not support an important role for crustal contamination in the LBEJ magmas. Rather, we conclude that minor isotopic variability exists in the mantle source regions beneath the maar complex.  相似文献   

17.
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18.
Accurate and precise dating of Quaternary lavas and pyroclastic flow or fall deposits is essential for understanding the evolution of active volcanoes and providing context for future eruptions and hazard assessment. The 40Ar/39Ar method is commonly employed to date these volcanic materials, however, dating young (<150 ka) K2O-poor materials can be challenging owing to low radiogenic 40Ar* contents that can be difficult to distinguish from trapped atmospheric argon. To address this challenge, a collaborative intercalibration exercise involving the University of Wisconsin-Madison WiscAr Laboratory and the 40Ar/39Ar Laboratory of the Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN), Chile was conducted on a common set of samples with the aim of refining our methods and optimizing precision and accuracy of age determinations. Groundmass and plagioclase samples were analyzed on a 5-collector Noblesse ion counting mass spectrometer in the WiscAr lab, whereas measurements in the SERNAGEOMIN lab were performed using an ARGUS VI spectrometer equipped with faraday detectors and one compact discrete dynode electron multiplier. Samples for the intercalibration were collected jointly from three Andean Southern Volcanic Zone volcanoes to evaluate the capability of each laboratory to date different materials. Samples from lava flows with 1.0–3.2 wt % K2O from Planchon-Peteroa volcanic complex and with <1.0 wt % K2O from Calbuco Volcano that are the focus of ongoing geological studies were measured in both laboratories. Single crystals of plagioclase (0.6–1.0 wt% K2O) were measured from the voluminous Diamante (Pudahuel) ignimbrite sourced from the Diamante Caldera. Multiple rounds of experiments were conducted including co-irradiation of samples at Oregon State University, as well as irradiations using the CCHEN reactor in Chile to investigate differences in neutron fluence parameters. As a result, SERNAGEOMIN has modified long-used protocols for the CCHEN reactor so that Quaternary samples may be irradiated for periods of time most appropriate for their age. Although less precise than plateau ages, the isochron ages generated in the two laboratories agree at 2σ for each sample. Six of six co-irradiated samples from Planchon-Peteroa yield plateau ages that also show inter-lab agreement at 2σ. The low K2O lavas from Calbuco proved more challenging with only three out of five plateau ages in agreement between labs. SERNAGEOMIN blanks were higher and more variable in Calbuco experiments, thus, differences in the variability of the measured 36Ar blanks between the two laboratories may explain the discrepancy in plateau ages. Analysis of single plagioclase crystals from the Diamante Ignimbrite show excellent agreement between labs for both weighted mean apparent ages and isochron ages. We favor an isochron age for the ignimbrite of 132.4 ± 2.2 ka, however, discrepancies in results between samples from three different outcrops present an interesting geochronologic problem that warrants further study. Overall, the consistency of the results between labs is promising. These new precise age determinations significantly improve our understanding of the temporal evolution of these active volcanoes.  相似文献   

19.
An invasive crayfish, Cherax quadricarinatus, and several native shrimp species (Macrobrachium acanthurus, Macrobrachium faustinum, Macrobrachium carcinus, Xiphocaris elongata, and Atyidae sp.) found in the Black River Lower Morass (BRLM), a Ramsar Wetland in Jamaica, support subsistence and artisanal fisheries. Management of this fishery requires information on factors that influence their abundance. Consequently, we assessed the effects of seasonality, extreme and double La Niña episodes (in 2011) and elevated atmospheric temperature (in 2011 and 2012) on weekly Decapoda landing data, collected over a period of two years (2010–2012). The catch of native species showed a cyclical trend every 6 months, coinciding with the dry and wet seasons. The invasive crayfish landing showed a reverse trend during the first year, after which no pattern could be discerned. A dynamic factor analysis (DFA) model with two common trends and four explanatory variables (conductivity, mean weekly number of traps hauled, weekly mean water level, and mean dissolved oxygen) was the optimal model to characterize the variation in wet-weight landings. A generalized additive mixed model with an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) error structure was used to show that the extreme and double La Niñas were associated with lower monthly atmospheric temperature. Sea surface temperature anomaly in region 3 (a proxy to ENSO) and the trend in temperature were then used to predict the wet weight of native shrimp (U-shaped relationship) and the invasive crayfish (reverse-j shaped relationship), respectively. The native shrimp (mean sustainable yield, MSY = 3469 kg and mean catch per fisher = 2.67 kg) and invasive crayfish (MSY = 11 kg and mean catch per fisher = 0.67 kg) are under fished, although populations of the native shrimp are possibly declining, whereas that of the invasive crayfish may be growing. The declining trend may have adverse implications for the stock of the native shrimp species, which has a higher economic value, if fishing pressure is not reduced/restricted or increased on the invasive crayfish, especially during seasonal and/or ENSO related declines in native shrimp stocks.  相似文献   

20.
Ocean Dynamics - The analysis of a 28-year-long (1989–2016) series of monthly measurements of chlorophyll concentrations and primary production rates at a shelf station off A Coruña (NW...  相似文献   

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