共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 437 毫秒
1.
Matthew J. Amesbury Gunnar Mallon Dan J. Charman Paul D. M. Hughes Robert K. Booth Timothy J. Daley Michelle Garneau 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(1):27-39
Proxy reconstructions of climatic parameters developed using transfer functions are central to the testing of many palaeoclimatic hypotheses on Holocene timescales. However, recent work shows that the mathematical models underpinning many existing transfer functions are susceptible to spatial autocorrelation, clustered training set design and the uneven sampling of environmental gradients. This may result in over‐optimistic performance statistics or, in extreme cases, a lack of predictive power. A new testate amoeba‐based transfer function is presented that fully incorporates the new recommended statistical tests to address these issues. Leave‐one‐out cross‐validation, the most commonly applied method in recent studies to assess model performance, produced over‐optimistic performance statistics for all models tested. However, the preferred model, developed using weighted averaging with tolerance downweighting, retained a predictive capacity equivalent to other published models even when less optimistic performance statistics were chosen. Application of the new statistical tests in the development of transfer functions provides a more thorough assessment of performance and greater confidence in reconstructions based on them. Only when the wider research community have sufficient confidence in transfer function‐based proxy reconstructions will they be commonly used in data comparison and palaeoclimate modelling studies of broader scientific relevance. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
土体具有显著的空间变异性,描述土体空间变异性的重要指标是自相关距离。提出基于土体微结构模拟的方法来求解土体的自相关距离。在生成土体的微结构数值模型时,对四参数随机生长法（QSGS法）进行改进,考虑土体的粒径分布信息,使得生成的土体微结构更加合理。改进的四参数随机生长法（MQSGS法）所需的输入参数可以结合土体的扫描电镜试验及粒径分析试验获取。基于生成的土体微结构数值模型,即可计算土体的2点自相关函数,再通过曲线拟合即可求解土体的自相关距离。研究表明：与QSGS法相比,采用MQSGS法生成的土体微结构更加符合自然界的真实土体;基于MQSGS法生成的微结构数值模型计算得到的土体自相关距离略小于QSGS法得出的自相关距离。 相似文献
3.
Numerous methods have been proposed to assess the axial capacity of pile foundations. Most of the methods have limitations
and therefore cannot provide consistent and accurate evaluation of pile capacity. However, in many situations, the methods
that correlate cone penetration test (CPT) data and pile capacity have shown to provide better results, because the CPT results
provide more reliable soil properties. In an attempt to obtain more accurate correlation of CPT data with axial pile capacity,
gene expression programming (GEP) technique is used in this study. The GEP is a relatively new artificial intelligent computational
technique that has been recently used with success in the field of engineering. Three GEP models have been developed, one
for bored piles and two other models for driven piles (a model for each of concrete and steel piles). The data used for developing
the GEP models are collected from the literature and comprise a total of 50 bored pile load tests and 58 driven pile load
tests (28 concrete pile load tests and 30 steel pile load tests) as well as CPT data. For each GEP model, the data are divided
into a training set for model calibration and an independent validation set for model verification. The performances of the
GEP models are evaluated by comparing their results with experimental data and the robustness of each model is investigated
via sensitivity analyses. The performances of the GEP models are evaluated further by comparing their results with the results
of number of currently used CPT-based methods. Statistical analyses are used for the comparison. The results indicate that
the GEP models are robust and perform well. 相似文献
4.
The Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) overcomes some of the fundamental problems in pollen analysis for quantitative reconstruction of vegetation. LRA first uses the REVEALS model to estimate regional vegetation using pollen data from large sites and then the LOVE model to estimate vegetation composition within the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) at small sites by subtracting the background pollen estimated from the regional vegetation composition. This study tests LRA using training data from forest hollows in northern Michigan (35 sites) and northwestern Wisconsin (43 sites). In northern Michigan, surface pollen from 152-ha and 332-ha lakes is used for REVEALS. Because of the lack of pollen data from large lakes in northwestern Wisconsin, we use pollen from 21 hollows randomly selected from the 43 sites for REVEALS. RSAP indirectly estimated by LRA is comparable to the expected value in each region. A regression analysis and permutation test validate that the LRA-based vegetation reconstruction is significantly more accurate than pollen percentages alone in both regions. Even though the site selection in northwestern Wisconsin is not ideal, the results are robust. The LRA is a significant step forward in quantitative reconstruction of vegetation. 相似文献
5.
DPFT is a lumped approach for operational flash flood forecasting, based on the unit hydrograph. Using a multi-event alternating iterative algorithm, it identifies a robust and stable average transfer function and a consistent set of effective rainfall series associated with each event at the same time. This key ingredient allows an objective calibration of different loss functions, relating gauged precipitation and effective rainfall. A case study based on an operational French basin (545 km2) is presented. Three lumped production functions have been calibrated and compared. The results show that more elaborate models of loss functions must be proposed, and some possible directions for this are pointed out. 相似文献
6.
The compression index is a one of the important soil parameters that is essential to geotechnical designs. As the determination of the compression index from consolidation tests is relatively time-consuming, empirical formulas based on soil parameters can be useful. Over the decades, a number of empirical formulas have been proposed to relate the compressibility to other soil parameters, such as the natural water content, liquid limit, plasticity index, specific gravity, and others. Each of the existing empirical formulas yields good results for a particular test set, but cannot accurately or reliably predict the compression index from various test sets. In this study, an alternative approach, an artificial neural network (ANN) model, is proposed to estimate the compression index with numerous consolidation test sets. The compression index was modeled as a function of seven variables including the natural water content, liquid limit, plastic index, specific gravity, and soil types. Nine hundred and forty-seven consolidation tests for soils sampled at 67 construction sites in the Republic of Korea were used for the training and testing of the ANN model. The predicted results showed that the neural network could provide a better performance than the empirical formulas. 相似文献
7.
In order to understand natural sea‐level variability, and to enhance future predictions, accurate and precise estimates of Holocene tidal levels are required. Although the application of diatom‐based transfer functions can yield such data, these work best when underpinned by local training sets. Urbanized estuaries offer little prospect of obtaining local training sets and, instead, the reliability of regional transfer functions has to be assessed. The performance of a published regional (UK) diatom‐based tidal‐level transfer function applied to fossil assemblages from two contrasting core sites in the Mersey Estuary, UK, is assessed using modern analogue techniques and sediment isotope data. We find that, although estimated tidal levels coincide with changes in organic matter source, the frequent lack of modern analogues mean that palaeotide estimates are without basis. This is likely a consequence of the site‐specific nature of diatom assemblages in higher intertidal and supratidal areas in particular, where local factors are expected to exert a greater control on their ecology. This situation may be partly resolved by constructing and applying much larger regional training sets from multiple higher intertidal and supratidal sites (where intact). Otherwise the application of alternative techniques, such as regional foraminiferal tidal‐level transfer functions, may be more appropriate. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
基于岩石图像深度学习的岩性自动识别与分类方法 总被引：8，自引：3，他引：5
岩石岩性的识别与分类对于地质分析极为重要,采用机器学习的方法建立识别模型进行自动分类是一条新的途径。基于Inception-v3深度卷积神经网络模型,建立了岩石图像集分析的深度学习迁移模型,运用迁移学习方法实现了岩石岩性的自动识别与分类。采用此方法对所采集的173张花岗岩图像、152张千枚岩图像和246张角砾岩图像进行了学习和识别分类研究,通过训练学习建立岩石图像深度学习迁移模型,并分别采用训练集和测试集中的岩石图像对模型进行了检验分析。对于训练集中的岩石图像,每组岩石分别用3张图像测试,三种岩石的岩性分类均正确,且分类概率值均达到90%以上,显示了模型良好的鲁棒性;对于测试集中的岩石图像,每组岩石分别采用9张图像进行识别分析,三种岩石的岩性分类均正确,并且千枚岩组图像分类概率均高于90%,但是花岗岩组2张图像和角砾岩组的1张图像分类概率值不足70%,概率值较其他岩石图像低,推测其原因是训练集中相同模式的岩石图像较少,导致模型的泛化能力减小。为了提高识别精确度,对准确率较低的岩石图像进行截取,分别取其中的3张图像加入训练集进行再训练,增加与测试图像具有相同模式的训练样本;在新的模型中,对3张图像进行二次检验,测试概率值均达到85%以上,说明在数据足够的状况下模型具有良好的学习能力。与传统的机器学习方法相比,所提出的岩石图像深度学习方法具有以下优点:第一,模型通过搜索图像像素点提取物体特征,不需要手动提取待分类物体特征;第二,对于图像像素大小,成像距离及光照要求低;第三,采用适当的训练集可获得较好的识别分类效果,并具有良好鲁棒性和泛化能力。 相似文献
9.
When properly calibrated, Holocene pollen data provide an important source of quantitative information about Holocene climates. Multiple linear regression of modern climate and pollen data allows the development of statistical calibration functions that transform percentages of certain pollen types into quantitative estimates of climatic variables, and these functions, when applied to Holocene pollen data, yield estimates of climatic variables for past times. Confidence intervals for the climatic variables provide estimates of the statistical errors. These interval estimates are based upon the following statistical assumptions: (1) the regression model is appropriate; (2) the errors in measuring the climate variables are independent, normally distributed and have constant variance; and (3) no outliers are present. We outline the steps to be followed in calculating calibration functions, including (1) selecting the calibration region; (2) selecting a pollen sum; (3) analyzing scatter diagrams of a given climate variable against each pollen type; (4) deleting outliers and transforming pollen data; (5) performing the regression; and (6) testing the appropriateness of the statistical assumptions. We used available computer programs for most of this study. In addition, we developed new software to compute the Moran statistic to test for spatial autocorrelation among the regression residuals, using the dual of the Voronoi diagram to describe the spatial relationships among the sites. In order to illustrate the sequence of procedures, we used data from the lower peninsula of Michigan to develop a calibration function for July mean temperature and then used Holocene pollen data from central lower Michigan to estimate past temperatures. 相似文献
10.
Sarah A. Woodroffe 《第四纪科学杂志》2009,24(3):215-223
Microfossil‐based transfer function models are increasingly used to provide decimeter‐scale sea‐level change reconstructions. In this paper I demonstrate that in the tropical location of northern Australia problems arise in selecting the appropriate elevation range for the modern training set used to calibrate fossil calcareous foraminiferal assemblages. Most calcareous foraminiferal species found in cores occur in both modern intertidal and shallow subtidal environments. A lack of independent measures to indicate whether fossil assemblages come from intertidal environments forces use of a training set that includes intertidal and subtidal environments. This results in decreased precision compared to using a training set solely from intertidal environments. The widely used method of assessing model fit to fossil assemblages (modern analogue technique) often fails to discriminate between acceptable and unacceptable reconstructions. It is important to investigate a number of different measures including modern analogue technique, canonical correspondence analysis and changing bootstrapped sample specific transfer function errors to fully understand the level of similarity between modern and fossil foraminiferal samples, to judge the reliability of transfer function‐predicted sea‐level reconstructions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
A method for predicting the maximum mobilized side resistance and unit shaft resistance-displacement curves (load transfer functions) on piles in clay is described. The method was derived using a numerical solution to model pile installation effects and a finite element scheme to model pile loading. Results of three well-documented pile load tests on steel piles were used to develop intermediate steps and final solutions, and the method was verified by comparing predicted results to two other load tests. An expression is proposed to represent load transfer functins for use by practitioners for the design of bridge and other foundations in clay. 相似文献
12.
Proxy-based sea-level reconstructions place the instrumentally observed rates of recent sea-level rise in a longer term context by providing data that extend the instrumental sea-level record into past centuries. This paper presents the first sea-level reconstructions based on analyses of testate amoebae, to test their ability to produce high-precision reconstructions of past sea level. We present two reconstructions for the past 100 yr from sites in Maine (USA) and Nova Scotia (Canada) based on short cores from salt marshes, and modern training data from North America and the United Kingdom. These are compared with tide-gauge records and reconstructions based on foraminifera from the same cores. The reconstructions show good agreement with both the tide-gauge data and the foraminifera-based reconstructions. The UK data perform well in predicting known elevations of North American surface samples and produce sea-level reconstructions very similar to those based on the North American data, suggesting the methodology is robust across large geographical areas. We conclude that testate amoebae have the potential to provide robust, higher precision sea-level reconstructions for the past few centuries if modern transfer functions are improved and core sites are located within the main zone of testate amoebae occurrence on the salt marsh. 相似文献
13.
In the linear model of coregionalization (LMC), when applicable to the experimental direct variograms and the experimental
cross variogram computed for two random functions, the variability of and relationships between the random functions are modeled
with the same basis functions. In particular, structural correlations can be defined from entries of sill matrices (coregionalization
matrices) under second-order stationarity. In this article, modified t-tests are proposed for assessing the statistical significance of estimated structural correlations. Their specific aspects
and fundamental differences, compared with an existing modified t-test for global correlation analysis with spatial data, are discussed via estimated effective sample sizes, in relation to
the superimposition of random structural components, the range of autocorrelation, the presence of correlation at another
structure, and the sampling scheme. Accordingly, simulation results are presented for one structure versus two structures
(one without and the other with autocorrelation). The performance of tests is shown to be related to the uncertainty associated
with the estimation of variogram model parameters (range, sill matrix entries), because these are involved in the test statistic
and the degrees of freedom of the associated t-distribution through the estimated effective sample size. Under the second-order stationarity and LMC assumptions, the proposed
tests are generally valid. 相似文献
14.
基于CPT资料的土性参数随机场特性研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
通过CPT资料研究土性参数随机场特性是一种比较理想的方法。土性参数随机场的平稳性是后续研究的先决条件之一,可以通过Bartlett统计量进行检验,但采用不同的模型拒绝域相差比较大,这样给实际应用造成困难,新模型LGS由于适应范围广可以解决这一问题。从随机场的基本理论出发,介绍了新相关模型LGS的数值模拟方法。基于LGS相关模型,采用修正的Bartlett统计量对随机场平稳性进行检验,统一了拒绝标准。用两组数据进行了实例分析,通过编制的程序进行计算,结果表明,这种相关模型对不同形式的相关函数有较好的适应性,可以解决拒绝域不统一的问题。 相似文献
15.
Testate amoebae as a proxy for reconstructing Holocene water table dynamics in southern Patagonian peat bogs 
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下载免费PDF全文 SIMON VAN BELLEN DMITRI MAUQUOY RICHARD J. PAYNE THOMAS P. ROLAND TIM J. DALEY PAUL D. M. HUGHES NEIL J. LOADER F. ALAYNE STREET‐PERROTT EMMA M. RICE VERÓNICA A. PANCOTTO 《第四纪科学杂志》2014,29(5):463-474
Testate amoebae are abundant and diverse in Sphagnum peat bogs and have been used extensively as indicators of past water table depths. Although these unicellular protists are widely dispersed with globally similar hydrological preferences, regional variations in communities demand region‐specific transfer functions. Here we present the first transfer function for southern Patagonian bogs, based on 154 surface samples obtained from transects in five bogs sampled in 2012 and 2013. Significant variance was explained by pH, electrical conductivity and, in particular, water table depth. Transfer functions for water table were constructed using weighted averaging and evaluated by cross‐validation and independent test sets. The optimal transfer function has predictive ability, but relatively high prediction errors given the wide range in sampled water tables. The use of independent test sets, as well as cross‐validation, allows a more rigorous assessment of model performance than most previous studies. For a subset of locations we compare surface and subsurface samples to demonstrate significant differences in community composition, possibly due to vertical zonation. Our results provide the first quantification of hydrological optima and tolerances for several rare species, which may include Southern Hemisphere endemics and pave the way for palaeohydrological reconstructions in southern Patagonian bogs. 相似文献
16.
DPFT is a lumped approach for operational flash flood forecasting, based on the unit hydrograph. Using a multi-event alternating iterative algorithm, it identifies a robust and stable average transfer function and a consistent set of effective rainfall series associated with each event at the same time. This key ingredient allows an objective calibration of different loss functions, relating gauged precipitation and effective rainfall. A case study based on an operational French basin (545 km2) is presented. Three lumped production functions have been calibrated and compared. The results show that more elaborate models of loss functions must be proposed, and some possible directions for this are pointed out.Presently at the Institut de Ciences de la Terra Jaume Almera, Apartat 30102, 08080 Barcelona, Spain.Presently at EDF-DTG. Service de Ressources en Eau, BP 4348, 31029 Toulouse Cedex, France. 相似文献
17.
文章基于Inception-v3卷积神经网络模型,通过对采集的金矿石、铜矿石、铁矿石、铅锌矿、花岗岩、片麻岩、大理岩和页岩,8种岩石453张图像进行特征提取和迁移学习,建立了岩性分类的迁移学习模型,实现了岩性的自动识别和分类。每种岩石图像随机抽取4张作为测试集进行测试,剩余421张图像作为训练集参加训练,经测试全部图像的岩性分类结果均正确,识别正确率超过80%的岩石图像占测试集图像总数的90%以上。识别正确率未达到80%的图像经过处理后重新训练并测试,其识别正确率均超过了80%,表明了该模型具有良好的岩性识别能力且鲁棒性较好,为岩性识别和自动分类提供了一种新的智能分析方法。 相似文献
18.
传递函数分析在边坡振动台模型试验的应用探讨 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
传递函数分析对获取振动系统的动力特性参数及估算动力响应具有重要意义。边坡地震模拟振动台模型试验可求算两种传函：反映边坡各点的场地地震动特征的绝对加速度传函（基于测点实测加速度时程）和反映坡体本身振动性质的相对加速度传函（基于测点与坡脚即台面间的实测加速度相对时程）。以弹性体振动方程分析和试验实测,探讨了边坡振动台模型试验中动力特性参数计算的传函选择和以传递函数对动力响应的估算,得出结论：（1）不同于机械模态分析（以绝对传函的模和虚部计算动力特性参数具有等价性）,对于边坡模型试验,绝对传函实部和模混入了台面加速度影响,以绝对传函虚部或相对传函虚部才能正确计算动力特性参数;（2）传递函数和台面输入波形Fourier谱的逐频相乘得到动力响应估算谱,与测点实测响应Fourier谱吻合较良好,这种估算方法有助于对不同地震波作用下的边坡动力响应作出总体评价,并指导模型试验中地震波形的合理选取。 相似文献
19.
Surendra P. Verma Lorena Díaz-González Rosalinda González-Ramírez 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2009,33(1):29-49
Numerous studies report geochemical data on reference materials (RMs) processed by outlier-based methods that use univariate discordancy tests. However, the relative efficiency of the discordancy tests is not precisely known. We used an extensive geochemical database for thirty-five RMs from four countries (Canada, Japan, South Africa and USA) to empirically evaluate the performance of nine single-outlier tests with thirteen test variants. It appears that the kurtosis test (N15) is the most powerful test for detecting discordant outliers in such geochemical RM databases and is closely followed by the Grubbs type tests (N1 and N4) and the skewness test (N14). The Dixon-type tests (N7, N8, N9 and N10) as well as the Grubbs type test (N2) depicted smaller global relative efficiency criterion values for the detection of outlying observations in this extensive database. Upper discordant outliers were more common than the lower discordant outliers, implying that positively skewed inter-laboratory geochemical datasets are more frequent than negatively skewed ones and that the median, a robust central tendency indicator, is likely to be biased especially for small-sized samples. Our outlier-based procedure should be useful for objectively identifying discordant outliers in many fields of science and engineering and for interpreting them accordingly. After processing these databases by single-outlier discordancy tests and obtaining reliable estimates of central tendency and dispersion parameters of the geochemical data for the RMs in our database, we used these statistical data to apply a weighted least-squares linear regression (WLR) model for the major element determinations by X-ray fluorescence spectrometry and compared the WLR results with an ordinary least-squares linear regression model. An advantage in using our outlier procedure and the new concentration values and uncertainty estimates for these RMs was clearly established. 相似文献
20.
Large-scale surface deformation was observed at Lazufre volcanic center in the Central Andes of Northern Chile/Northwestern Argentina by means of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). Uplift started there after 1998 and increased dramatically in the following years up to a rate of 3 cm/a. Lazufre is now one of the largest deforming volcano systems on Earth, but the cause for uplift – likely influx of magmatic material into the crust – is still poorly understood.In the beginning of 2010 a magnetotelluric survey was conducted to delineate the electrical conductivity distribution in the area. Several long-period magnetotelluric (LMT) sites and two broadband magnetotelluric (BBMT) sites were set up on an EW trending profile crossing the volcanic center; furthermore some LMT sites were arranged circularly around Lazufre complex and adjacent Lastarria volcano. Data were processed using an algorithm for robust and remote reference transfer function estimation. Electrical strike directions were estimated and induction arrows were derived. Although electrical strike is rather ambiguous, in a first step a 2-D resistivity model was calculated. The most prominent feature of this model is a well conducting structure rising from the upper mantle to the shallow crust beneath the center of elevation. This can be interpreted as partial melts ascending from the asthenospheric wedge and feeding a potential magma reservoir beneath Lazufre volcanic center. An improved model is finally achieved by 3-D inversion, supporting this feature. We assume that these rising melts are the source of the observed uplift at Lazufre complex. 相似文献