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1.
 A systematic comparison of observed and modeled atmospheric surface heat and momentum fluxes related to sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual time scales in the tropical Pacific is conducted. This is done to examine the ability of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) to simulate the surface fluxes important for driving the ocean on interannual time scales. In order to estimate the model and observed response to such SST variability, various regression calculations are made between a time series representing observed ENSO SST variability in the tropical Pacific and the resulting surface flux anomalies. The models exhibit a range of differences from the observations. Overall the zonal wind stress anomalies are most accurately simulated while the solar radiation anomalies are the least accurately depicted. The deficiencies in the solar radiation are closely related to errors in cloudiness. The total heat flux shows some cancellation of the errors in its components particularly in the central Pacific. The performance of the GCMs in simulating the surface flux anomalies seems to be resolution dependent and low-resolution models tend to exhibit weaker flux responses. The simulated responses in the western Pacific are more variable than those of the central and eastern Pacific but in the west the observed estimates are less robust as well. Further improvements in atmospheric GCM flux simulation through better physical parametrization is clearly required if such models are to be used to their full potential in coupled modeling and climate forecasting. Received: 24 August 1999 / Accepted: 11 September 2000  相似文献   

2.
Modeling the tropical Pacific Ocean using a regional coupled climate model   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
A high-resolution tropical Pacific general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a global atmospheric GCM is described in this paper. The atmosphere component is the 5°×4°global general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) with 9 levels in the vertical direction. The ocean component with a horizontal resolution of 0.5°, is based on a low-resolution model (2°×1°in longitude-latitude).Simulations of the ocean component are first compared with its previous version. Results show that the enhanced ocean horizontal resolution allows an improved ocean state to be simulated; this involves (1) an apparent decrease in errors in the tropical Pacific cold tongue region, which exists in many ocean models,(2) more realistic large-scale flows, and (3) an improved ability to simulate the interannual variability and a reduced root mean square error (RMSE) in a long time integration. In coupling these component models, a monthly "linear-regression" method is employed to correct the model's exchanged flux between the sea and the atmosphere. A 100-year integration conducted with the coupled GCM (CGCM) shows the effectiveness of such a method in reducing climate drift. Results from years 70 to 100 are described.The model produces a reasonably realistic annual cycle of equatorial SST. The large SSTA is confined to the eastern equatorial Pacific with little propagation. Irregular warm and cold events alternate with a broad spectrum of periods between 24 and 50 months, which is very realistic. But the simulated variability is weaker than the observed and is also asymmetric in the sense of the amplitude of the warm and cold events.  相似文献   

3.
 The interannual variability over the tropical Pacific and a possible link with the mean state or the seasonal cycle is examined in four coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCM). Each model is composed of a high-resolution ocean GCM of either the tropical Pacific or near-global oceans coupled to a moderate-resolution atmospheric GCM, without using flux correction. The oceanic subsurface is considered to describe the mean state or the seasonal cycle through the analytical formulations of some potential coupled processes. These coupled processes characterise the zonal gradient of sea surface temperature (hereafter SST), the oceanic vertical gradient of temperature and the equatorial upwelling. The simulated SST patterns of the mean state and the interannual signals are generally too narrow. The grid of the oceanic model could control the structure of the SST interannual signals while the behaviour of the atmospheric model could be important in the link between the oceanic surface and the subsurface. The first SST EOFs are different between the coupled models, however, the second SST EOFs are quite similar and could correspond to the return to the normal state while that of the observations (COADS) could favour the initial anomaly. All the models seem to simulate a similar equatorial wave-like dynamics to return to the normal state. The more the basic state is unstable from the coupled processes point of view, the more the interannual signal are high. It seems that the basic state could control the intensity of the interannual variability. Two models, which have a significant seasonal variation of the interannual variance, also have a significant seasonal variation of the instability with a few months lag. The potential seasonal phase locking of the interannual fluctuations need to be examined in more models to confirm its existence in current tropical GCMs. Received: 30 July 1999 / Accepted: 25 April 2000  相似文献   

4.
A nine-layer spectral atmospheric general circulation model is coupled to a twenty-layer global oceanic general circulation model with the “prediction-correction” monthly anomaly exchange scheme which has been proposed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). A forty-year integration of the coupled model shows that the CGCM is fairly successful in keeping a reasonable pattern of the modelled SST although most of the Pacific become warmer than those given by the uncoupled ocean model. The model tends to reach a more realistic state than the uncoupled one in terms of downward surface heat flux into ocean particularly in the equatorial Pacific region. Also, the model is capable to simulate interannual variability of sea surface temperature in tropical region.  相似文献   

5.
Summary ?The interannual variability of broad-scale Asian summer monsoon was studied using a general circulation model (GCM) and NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) data set during 1979–95. In the GCM experiment, the main emphasis was given to isolate the individual role of surface boundary conditions on the existence of winter-spring time circulation anomalies associated with the interannual variability of Asian summer monsoon. In order to understand the role of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) alone on the existence of precursory signals, we have conducted 17 years numerical integration with a GCM forced with the real-time monthly averaged SSTs of 1979 to 1995. In this experiment, among the many surface boundary conditions only SSTs are varying interannually. The composite circulation anomalies simulated by the GCM have good resemblance with the NCEP circulation anomalies over subtropical Asia. This suggests that the root cause of the existence of winter-spring time circulation anomalies associated with the interannual variability of Asian summer monsoon is the interannual variability of SST. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of 200-mb winds and OLR were constructed to study the dynamic coupling between SST anomalies and winter-spring time circulation anomalies. It is found that the convective heating anomalies associated with SST anomalies and stationary eddies undergo systematic and coherent interannual variations prior to summer season. We have identified Matsuno-Gill type mode in the velocity potential and stream function fields. This suggests the existence of dynamic links between the SST anomalies and the precursory signals of Asian summer monsoon. Received June 9, 1999/Revised April 7, 2000  相似文献   

6.
Atmospheric General Circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) climatological seasonal cycle simulate interannual variabilities that have cyclic characteristics. Such cyclic characteristics generate relationships between one year and the next in the model output. We document these relationships by computing lag-1-year autocorrelation in hundreds of years of CAM3 and ECHAM5 simulations. The autocorrelation is found to be generally less than 0.2, but contain robust structures. In case of zonal averaged zonal wind and air temperature the winter hemisphere is characterized by negative autocorrelation and the summer hemisphere characterized by positive autocorrelation. The presence of autocorrelation means that an average over a 10~25 year AGCM simulation in an effort to reduce the influence of interannual variability on externally-driven climate change might not be very effective. In view of this, we investigate if ensemble runs instead of a continuous simulation is more effective in reducing such influences. The reduction gain by using N 1-year long ensemble runs over N years of continuous run is generally less than 30% and mainly limited to the areas where the autocorrelation is positive. We thus conclude that each year in a continuous simulation can generally be treated as largely independent of the next year in an AGCM run with fixed SST forcing.  相似文献   

7.
大气季节内振荡:其全球同步性及其与ENSO的关系   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
利用美国国家环境预报中心和大气研究中心的大气再分析资料,分析研究了大气季节内振荡的年际变化及其与ENSO的关系。揭示了全球不同纬度带之间存在着的大气季节内振荡年际变化的同步性,以及大气季节内振荡与海温和大气向外长波辐射之关系的复杂性。我们还发现大气季节内振荡与Nino3指数的关系存在年代际尺度的变化,即,这种关系有时强时弱的现象。  相似文献   

8.
赵珊珊  杨修群 《气象科学》2000,21(3):389-399
本文利用中科院大气所两层全球大气环流模式和十四层热带太平洋模式的耦合环流模式100年积分中的后30年的月平均输出资料,通过分析海表面温度、上层海洋热容量和海表面高度异常的年际变化,揭示了模式ENSO循环(包括其产生、发展、成熟和消亡过程)的特征及其控制机理。结果表明,控制本文耦合环流模式中ENSO循环的机理是“时滞振子”模态,这和由中间复杂程度耦合模式得到的ENSO控制机理是一致的。反映了“时滞振  相似文献   

9.
外强迫对热带季节内振荡影响的模拟研究   总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3  
应用经过修改的NCAR CCM3模式和CAM2模式进行的数值实验结果以及NCEP的GFS模式的输出结果讨论了海温等外强迫作用对热带季节内振荡的影响.结果表明,热带季节内振荡是热带大气固有的内部变率.它是由大气内部过程的相互作用决定的.但外强迫对热带季节内振荡的强度、传播方向等有明显的影响.当外强迫没有变化时,模式可以模拟出与观测近似的低频振荡.当作为外强迫的海温和太阳辐射有年内季节变化时,模式模拟的季节内振荡则明显减弱.当海温与辐射不仅有季节变化而且有年际变化时,模式模拟的季节内振荡会进一步减弱.具有长周期的外强迫还会削弱季节内振荡中东移波动的能量而增加静止波的强度.在与海洋模式耦合的状态下,模式不受来自海洋的外强迫影响,而是与海洋构成一个耦合系统,可以产生最强的季节内振荡.  相似文献   

10.
A prominent weakening in equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability, occurring around the year 2000, is investigated by means of observations, reanalysis products and the linear recharge oscillator (ReOsc) model. Compared to the time period 1982–1999, during 2000–2017 the May–June–July SST variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic has decreased by more than 30%. Coupled air–sea feedbacks, namely the positive Bjerknes feedback and the negative net heat flux damping are important drivers for the equatorial Atlantic interannual SST variability. We find that the Bjerknes feedback weakened after 2000 while the net heat flux damping increased. The weakening of the Bjerknes feedback does not appear to be fully explainable by changes in the mean state of the tropical Atlantic. The increased net heat flux damping is related to an enhanced response of the latent heat flux to the SST anomalies (SSTa). Strengthened trade winds as well as warmer SSTs are suggested to increase the air–sea specific humidity difference and hence, enhancing the latent heat flux response to SSTa. A combined effect of those two processes is proposed to be responsible for the weakened SST variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. The ReOsc model supports the link between reduced SST variability, weaker Bjerknes feedback and stronger net heat flux damping.  相似文献   

11.
A Nine-layer Atmospheric General Circulation Model and Its Performance   总被引:71,自引:0,他引:71  
ANine-layerAtmosphericGeneralCirculationModelandItsPerformanceWuGuoxiong(吴国雄),LiuHui(刘辉),ZhaoYucheng(赵宇澄),andLiWeiping(李伟平),(...  相似文献   

12.
This study discusses the representation of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in three simulations with the ECHAM4 atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). First, the model is forced by AMIP sea surface temperatures (SST), then coupled to the OPYC3 global ocean GCM and third forced by OPYC3 SSTs to clarify possible air-sea interactions and connections of the ISO and the ENSO cycle. The simulations are compared to ECMWF reanalysis data and NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) observations. Although previous studies have shown that the ECHAM4 GCM simulates an ISO-like oscillation, the main deficits are an overly fast eastward propagation and an eastward displacement of the main ISO activity, which is shown with a composite analysis of daily data between 1984 to 1988 for the reanalysis and the AMIP simulation, 25 years of the coupled integration, and a five year subset of the coupled SST output used for the OPYC3 forced atmosphere GCM experiment. These deficits are common to many atmospheric GCMs. The composites are obtained by principal oscillation pattern (POP). The POPs are also used to investigate the propagation speed and the interannual variability of the main ISO activity. The present coupled model version reveals no clear improvements in the ISO simulation compared to the uncoupled version forced with OPYC3 SSTs, although it is shown that the modeled ISO influences the simulated high-frequency SST variability in the coupled GCM. Within the current analysis, ECHAM4 forced by AMIP SSTs provides the most reasonable ISO simulation. However, it is shown that the maximum amplitudes of the annual cycle of the ISO variability in all analyzed model versions are reached too late in the year (spring and summer) compared to the observations (winter and spring). Additionally, the ENSO cycle influences the interannual variability of the ISO, which is revealed by 20 years of daily reanalysis data and 100 years of the coupled integration. The ENSO cycle is simulated by the coupled model, although there is a roughly 1 K cold bias in the East Pacific in the coupled model. This leads to a diminished influence of the ENSO cycle on the spatial variability of the modeled ISO activity compared to observations. This points out the strong sensitivity of the SST on the ISO activity. Small biases in the SST appear to cause large deterioration in the modeled ISO.  相似文献   

13.
The regional features oflong-term variability ofsea surface temperature (SST) in the Black Sea are analyzed using the satellite data for 1982-2014. It is demonstrated that the maximum intraannual and interannual variability of SST is registered on the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea. The high level of interannual variability of SST and maximum linear trends are observed in the northeastern part of the sea. The qualitative connection is revealed between the long-term variability of SST and the variations in the intensity of the Black Sea Rim Current in the long-term seasonal cycle. An increase in the level of interannual variability of SST is observed in summer, when the Black Sea Rim Current weakens. The significant negative correlation is revealed between the interannual anomalies of SST and the NAO index. The highest correlation coefficients are obtained for the eastern part of the Black Sea and near the Crimean coast.  相似文献   

14.
ABSTRACT

Historical variability in sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic (NA) is examined using trend and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses of annual and summer means from three interpolated monthly datasets: Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1), Extended Reconstruction of SST (ERSST), and Centennial in situ Observation-Based Estimates (COBE). Comparisons with time series of upper-ocean temperature from four monitoring sites off Atlantic Canada reveal substantial similarity in the interannual to multi-decadal variability but notable differences in the longer-term trends. The magnitude of decadal-scale variability is comparable to, or greater than, the long-term changes in all of the datasets; together with the trend discrepancies, this needs to be considered in climate change applications. Averaged over the NA, the annual means have a long-term increasing trend and a pronounced multi-decadal variation, resembling those in global mean (land-ocean) surface temperature and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). There is remarkable similarity in the spatial and temporal variability of the three leading EOF modes from the different gridded datasets, with the first highly correlated with the AMO, the second modestly correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, and the third apparently related to ocean circulation variability. Trends since 1981 are generally two to three times larger than those since 1900 and 1950, which is at least partly related to the phase of the AMO. Trends in the summer means are generally larger than in the annual means. Overall, the results provide support for both anthropogenic global warming and decadal-scale natural variations making important contributions to ocean climate variability in the Northwest Atlantic.  相似文献   

15.
 This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120 °W–60 °W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968–1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30 °N–20 °S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20–30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical processes at the ocean/atmosphere interface that create anomaly gradients in the meridional plane in a way which tends to alter the north–south movement of the seasonal cycle. This appears to be consistent with the intrinsic non-dipole character of the tropical Atlantic surface variability at the interannual time step and over the recent period, but produces abnormal amplitude and/or delayed excursions of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Connections with continental rainfall are approached through three (NCEP/NCAR and observed) rainfall indexes over the Nordeste region in Brazil, and the Guinea and Sahel zones in West Africa. These indices appear to be significantly linked to the SST component of the coupled modes only when the two Atlantic modes+the ENSO-like Nino3 index are taken into account in the regressions. This suggests that thermal forcing of continental rainfall is particularly sensitive to the linear combinations of some basic SST patterns, in particular to those that create meridional thermal gradients. The first mode in the Atlantic is associated with transequatorial pressure, moist static energy and precipitable water anomaly patterns which can explain abnormal location of the ITCZ particularly in northern winter, and hence rainfall variations in Nordeste. The second mode is more associated with in-phase variations of the same variables near the southern edge of the ITCZ, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea during the northern spring and winter. It is primarily linked to the amplitude and annual phase of the ITCZ excursions and thus to rainfall variations in Guinea. Connections with Sahel rainfall are less clear due to the difficulty for the model to correctly capture interannual variability over that region but the second Atlantic mode and the ENSO-like Pacific variability are clearly involved in the Sahel climate interannual fluctuations: anomalous dry (wet) situations tend to occur when warmer (cooler) waters are present in the eastern Pacific and the gulf of Guinea in northern summer which contribute to create a northward (southward) transequatorial anomaly gradient in sea level pressure over West Africa. Received: 14 April 1998 / Accepted: 24 December 1998  相似文献   

16.
This study considers an ensemble of six 10-year climate simulations conducted with the Canadian Climate Centre 2nd generation General Circulation Model (CCC GCM2). Each simulation was forced according to the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experimental protocol using monthly mean sea surface temperatures and sea-ice extents based on observations for January, 1979 to December 1988. One simulation, conducted on a CRAY computer, was initiated from analysed 1 January 1979 conditions while the remaining 5 simulations, conducted on a NEC computer, were initiated from previously simulated model states obtained from a long control integration. The interannual variability and potential predictability of simulated and observed 500 hPa geopotential, 850 hPa temperature and 300 hPa stream function are examined and inter-compared using statistical analysis of variance techniques to partition variance into a number of components. The boundary conditions specified by AMIP are found to induce statistically significant amounts of predictable variance on the interannual time scale in the tropics and, to a lesser extent, at extratropical latitudes. In addition, local interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface apparently induce significant amounts of potentially predictable interannual variance in the tropical lower atmosphere and also at some locations in the temperate lower atmosphere. No evidence was found that the atmosphere's internal dynamics on their own generate potentially predictable variations on the interannual time scale. The sensitivity of the statistical methods used is demonstrated by the fact that we are able to detect differences between the climates simulated on the two computers used. The causes of these physically insignificant changes are traced. The statistical procedures are checked by confirming that the choice of initial conditions does not lead to significant inter-simulation variation. The simulations are also interpreted as an ensemble of climate forecasts that rely only on the specified boundary conditions for their predictive skill. The forecasts are verified against observations and against themselves. In agreement with other studies it was found that the forecasts have very high skill in the tropics and moderate skill in the extratropics. Received: 18 December 1995 / Accepted: 4 April 1996  相似文献   

17.
To enable downscaling of seasonal prediction and climate change scenarios, long-term baseline regional climatologies which employ global model forcing are needed for South America. As a first step in this process, this work examines climatological integrations with a regional climate model using a continental scale domain nested in both reanalysis data and multiple realizations of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The analysis presents an evaluation of the nested model simulated large scale circulation, mean annual cycle and interannual variability which is compared against observational estimates and also with the driving GCM for the Northeast, Amazon, Monsoon and Southeast regions of South America. Results indicate that the regional climate model simulates the annual cycle of precipitation well in the Northeast region and Monsoon regions; it exhibits a dry bias during winter (July–September) in the Southeast, and simulates a semi-annual cycle with a dry bias in summer (December–February) in the Amazon region. There is little difference in the annual cycle between the GCM and renalyses driven simulations, however, substantial differences are seen in the interannual variability. Despite the biases in the annual cycle, the regional model captures much of the interannual variability observed in the Northeast, Southeast and Amazon regions. In the Monsoon region, where remote influences are weak, the regional model improves upon the GCM, though neither show substantial predictability. We conclude that in regions where remote influences are strong and the global model performs well it is difficult for the regional model to improve the large scale climatological features, indeed the regional model may degrade the simulation. Where remote forcing is weak and local processes dominate, there is some potential for the regional model to add value. This, however, will require improvments in physical parameterizations for high resolution tropical simulations.  相似文献   

18.
 The mean state of the tropical atmosphere is important as the nature of the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere depends nonlinearly on the basic state of the coupled system. The simulation of the annual cycle of the tropical surface wind stress by 17 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) is examined and intercompared. The models considered were part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) and were integrated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) for the decade 1979–1988. Several measures have been devised to intercompare the performance of the 17 models on global tropical as well as regional scales. Within the limits of observational uncertainties, the models under examination simulate realistic tropical area-averaged zonal and meridional annual mean stresses. This is a noteworthy improvement over older generation low resolution models which were noted for their simulation of surface stresses considerably weaker than the observations. The models also simulate realistic magnitudes of the spatial distribution of the annual mean surface stress field and are seen to reproduce realistically its observed spatial pattern. Similar features are observed in the simulations of the annual variance field. The models perform well over almost all the tropical regions apart from a few. Of these, the simulations over Somali are interesting. Over this region, the models are seen to underestimate the annual mean zonal and meridional stresses. There is also wide variance between the different models in simulating these quantities. Large model-to-model variations were also seen in the simulations of the annual mean meridional stress field over equatorial Indian Ocean, south central Pacific, north east Pacific and equatorial eastern Pacific oceans. It is shown that the systematic errors in simulating the surface winds are related to the systematic errors in simulating the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in its location and intensity. Weaker than observed annual mean southwesterlies simulated by most models over Somali is due to weaker than observed southwesterlies during the Northern Hemisphere summer. This is related to the weaker than observed land precipitation simulated by most models during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The diversity in simulation of the surface wind over Somali and equatorial Indian ocean is related to the diversity of AGCMs in simulating the precipitation zones in these regions. Received: 2 August 1996 / Accepted: 7 February 1997  相似文献   

19.
20.
The spectral version 1.1 of the Flexible Global Ocean-atmosphere-land System (FGOALS1.1-s) model was developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophys- ical Fluid Dynamics at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). This paper reports the major modifications to the physical parameterization package in its atmospheric component, including the radia- tion scheme, convection scheme, and cloud scheme. Furthermore, the simulation of the East Asian Summer Mon...  相似文献   

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