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1.
Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, “warmer'' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity (Gössling and Hall, 2005). This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters (e.g. Lise and Tol, 2001; Maddison, 2001; Christ et al., 2003; Hamilton et al., 2003; Hamilton and Tol, 2004). The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including “most at risk destinations'', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation. 相似文献
2.
Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect
of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based
on the statistical relationship between bed nights and a climate-related index of human comfort, after accounting for other
determinants of bed nights such as income and prices. It is concluded that climate change could have significant impacts on
the regional distribution of the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. For example, in summer, Southern Europe
could experience climate conditions that are less favourable to tourism than the current climate, while countries in the North
could enjoy better conditions. The economic effects of these changes are likely to be sizeable, albeit difficult to assess.
Crucially, they are shown to depend on tourists’ temporal flexibility with respect to holiday planning. The greater the prominence
of institutional rigidities such as school holidays, the larger the differences between winning and losing regions in terms
of economic impact. 相似文献
3.
Weather conditions that influence natural resource-based tourist destinations are likely to be affected by climate change, but our understanding of how businesses and destinations manage for present and future conditions is limited. In this study we report on the relationships between weather and tourism activities in the Queenstown-Lake Wanaka region, South Island, New Zealand. Key stakeholder interviews and a workshop form the empirical basis of this paper. Coping range application ideas derived from ecological management literature are used to develop a framework to understand and inform thinking and strategies around how tourism businesses and destinations are currently responding to the weather and perhaps could in future respond to climate change. Results show that within a destination individual businesses have widely varying relationships with the weather, with each type of activity operating within its own coping range to particular environmental gradients, for example temperature. Coping, which can be observed outside the ‘ideal’ range of a particular environmental gradient, requires business adjustments so as to cope with increasingly marginal conditions, up to a Critical Stop Point – the ultimate threshold. The data suggest that increased need for adjustments impacts on business viability, and more planned adaptation measures would be necessary to increase viability under increasingly detrimental climatic conditions. Discussion at a destination level workshop indicates that at and beyond thresholds, keystone industry and destination level strategic adaptation planning is required to ensure the viability of the destination as a whole. 相似文献
4.
This paper investigates how the role of climate in tourist destination choice has changed over the last 15 years. To this end, a demand model for international tourism is estimated, including the main classic determinants but allowing a time-varying climatic sensitivity of tourists. Moreover, a complete database considering international tourism movement between 178 countries for the period 1995 to 2010 is used. Results show how turning point temperatures in origin and destination countries have changed over the period of analysis, evidencing a loss of competitiveness for traditional warm destinations. Additionally, using data for the projected growth of Gross Domestic Product per capita and climatic conditions within A2, B1 and B2 scenarios, an updated vision of their expected impact on international tourism flows is assessed, evaluating how climate change would imply a greater loss of attractiveness for traditional warm destinations around the world but would increase attractiveness for high latitude countries. 相似文献
5.
Feeling affected by climate change related disasters has the potential to mobilize belief in climate change, concern about the issue, and support for mitigation policies – even when accounting for the effects of physically living through a disaster. In this study we use a two-wave survey design where respondents in the United States were interviewed before and after Hurricane Florence to better understand who feels affected by such disasters. First, we find that being worried about climate change increases the feeling of being affected by the hurricane among those who regularly discuss climate change. Second, we find that those who are high in perspective taking are more likely to feel affected. However, those who are high in empathic concern, but feel obligated to help victims of disasters, are less likely to feel affected. This suggests that hurricanes may cause a collapse of compassion, where those who are especially sensitive to the suffering of others down-regulate their emotional response to costly disasters. 相似文献
6.
Climate variability and change affects individuals and societies. Within agricultural systems, seasonal climate forecasting
can increase preparedness and lead to better social, economic and environmental outcomes. However, climate forecasting is
not the panacea to all our problems in agriculture. Instead, it is one of many risk management tools that sometimes play an
important role in decision-making. Understanding when, where and how to use this tool is a complex and multi-dimensional problem. To do this effectively, we suggest a participatory, cross-disciplinary
research approach that brings together institutions (partnerships), disciplines (e.g., climate science, agricultural systems
science, rural sociology and many other disciplines) and people (scientist, policy makers and direct beneficiaries) as equal
partners to reap the benefits from climate knowledge. Climate science can provide insights into climatic processes, agricultural
systems science can translate these insights into management options and rural sociology can help determine the options that
are most feasible or desirable from a socio-economic perspective. Any scientific breakthroughs in climate forecasting capabilities
are much more likely to have an immediate and positive impact if they are conducted and delivered within such a framework.
While knowledge and understanding of the socio-economic circumstances is important and must be taken into account, the general
approach of integrated systems science is generic and applicable in developed as well as in developing countries. Examples
of decisions aided by simulation output ranges from tactical crop management options, commodity marketing to policy decisions
about future land use. We also highlight the need to better understand temporal- and spatial-scale variability and argue that
only a probabilistic approach to outcome dissemination should be considered. We demonstrated how knowledge of climatic variability
(CV), can lead to better decisions in agriculture, regardless of geographical location and socio-economic conditions. 相似文献
7.
Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2
Tourism, being volatile and situation-specific, is responsive to climate change. A cross-section analysis is conducted on destinations of OECD tourists and a factor and regression analysis on holiday activities of Dutch tourists, to find optimal temperatures at travel destination for different tourists and different tourist activities. Globally, OECD tourists prefer a temperature of 21 °C (average of the hottest month of the year) at theirchoice of holiday destination. This indicates that, under a scenario of gradual warming, tourists would spend their holidays in different places than they currently do. The factor and regression analysis suggests that preferences for climates at tourist destinations differ among age and income groups. 相似文献
8.
Suzanne M. Prober Kevin R. Thiele Philip W. Rundel Colin J. Yates Sandra L. Berry Margaret Byrne Les Christidis Carl R. Gosper Pauline F. Grierson Kristina Lemson Tom Lyons Craig Macfarlane Michael H. O’Connor John K. Scott Rachel J. Standish William D. Stock Eddie J. B. van Etten Grant W. Wardell-Johnson Alexander Watson 《Climatic change》2012,110(1-2):227-248
The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk?options. 相似文献
9.
In Search of Warmer Climates? The Impact of Climate Change on Flows of British Tourists 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9
David Maddison 《Climatic change》2001,49(1-2):193-208
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the chosendestinations of Britishtourists. Destinations are characterised in terms of attractors includingclimate variables, traveland accommodation costs. These variables are used to explain the currentobserved pattern ofoverseas travel in terms of a model based upon the idea of utilitymaximisation. The approachpermits the trade-offs between climate and holiday expenditure to be analysedand effectivelyidentifies the optimal climate for generating tourism. The findings are usedto predict the impactof various climate change scenarios on popular tourist destinations. 相似文献
10.
Andreas Matzarakis Joscha Rammelberg Jürgen Junk 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(1-2):193-202
Tourism destinations often require information about climate to assess their climate potential. This can be performed in terms of mean conditions of relevant climatological parameters. For a user-friendly analysis and visualization of climate data relevant for tourism application in Luxembourg, information is prepared based on the facets of climate in tourism. Information on thermal comfort/stress conditions as well as aesthetical and physical parameters is considered. In the present study, relevant and sensible factors were identified and presented. Therefore, physiologically equivalent temperature, precipitation patterns and the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme are applied. In addition, extreme events relevant for heat stress are analysed based on existing data sets (i.e. heat waves of 2010). Expected climatic conditions for the future are investigated using the projections of two different regional climate models. The results concerning climate change conditions reveal increasing heat stress and sultriness but decreasing cold stress. This information is the basis for an adequate assessment to provide relevant information for different environmental planning issues as well as for the growing tourism sector of Luxembourg. 相似文献
11.
Does ??climate change?? seem like a less serious problem than ??global warming?? to Americans and Europeans? Does describing the costs of climate change mitigation in terms of ??higher taxes?? instead of ??higher prices?? reduce public support for such efforts? In an experiment embedded in an American national survey, respondents were randomly assigned to rate the seriousness of ??global warming,?? ??climate change,?? or ??global climate change.?? Contrary to predictions made by a leading political strategist, the full sample and political Independents perceived ??climate change?? and ??global warming?? to be equally serious. Among Republicans, ??climate change?? was perceived to be more serious than ??global warming,?? whereas the reverse was true among Democrats. A similar experiment embedded in a survey of residents of 31 European countries showed that ??global warming?? and ??climate change?? were perceived to be equally serious problems. And an experiment embedded in an American survey showed that describing the increased costs of climate change mitigation legislation via ??higher taxes?? instead of via ??higher prices?? did not reduce popular support for such legislation, also contradicting a political strategy memo. Thus, word choice may sometimes affect public perceptions of the climate change seriousness or support for mitigation policies, but a single choice of terminology may not influence all people the same way, making strategic language choices difficult to implement. 相似文献
12.
Island tropical montane cloud forests may be among the most sensitive of the world's ecosystems to global climate change. Measurements in and above a montane cloud forest on East Maui, Hawaii, document steep microclimatic gradients. Relatively small climate-driven shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation are likely to trigger major local changes in rainfall, cloud cover, and humidity. Increased interannual variability in precipitation and hurricane incidence would provide additional stresses on island biota that are highly vulnerable to disturbance-related invasion of non-native species. Because of the exceptional sensitivity of these microclimates and forests to change, they may provide valuable listening posts for detecting the onset of human-induced global climate change. 相似文献
13.
Theoretically, weather-index insurance is an effective risk reduction option for small-scale farmers in low income countries. Renewed policy and donor emphasis on bridging gender gaps in development also emphasizes the potential social safety net benefits that weather-index insurance could bring to women farmers who are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change risk and have low adaptive capacity. To date, no quantitative studies have experimentally explored weather-index insurance preferences through a gender lens, and little information exists regarding gender-specific preferences for (and constraints to) smallholder investment in agricultural weather-index insurance. This study responds to this gap, and advances the understanding of preference heterogeneity for weather-index insurance by analysing data collected from 433 male and female farmers living on a climate change vulnerable coastal island in Bangladesh, where an increasing number of farmers are adopting maize as a potentially remunerative, but high-risk cash crop. We implemented a choice experiment designed to investigate farmers’ valuations for, and trade-offs among, the key attributes of a hypothetical maize crop weather-index insurance program that offered different options for bundling insurance with financial saving mechanisms. Our results reveal significant insurance aversion among female farmers, irrespective of the attributes of the insurance scheme. Heterogeneity in insurance choices could however not be explained by differences in men’s and women’s risk and time preferences, or agency in making agriculturally related decisions. Rather, gendered differences in farmers’ level of trust in insurance institutions and financial literacy were the key factors driving the heterogeneous preferences observed between men and women. Efforts to fulfill gender equity mandates in climate-smart agricultural development programs that rely on weather-index insurance as a risk-abatement tool are therefore likely to require a strengthening of institutional credibility, while coupling such interventions with financial literacy programs for female farmers. 相似文献
14.
This article examines age variations in support for environmental protection policies that affect climate change using a sample of over 14,000 respondents to a 1999 Eurobarometer survey. There is a steady decline with age in whether respondents are willing to incur higher gasoline prices to protect the environment. This relationship remains after controlling for socioeconomic characteristics. There are age-related differences in information about environmental risks, information sources about the environment, perceived health risks from climate change, and degree of worry about climate change. However, taking these factors into account does not eliminate the age variation in willingness to pay more for gasoline to protect the environment. 相似文献
15.
Current projections of long-term trends in Atlantic hurricane activity due to climate change are deeply uncertain, both in magnitude and sign. This creates challenges for adaptation planning in exposed coastal communities. We present a framework to support the interpretation of current long-term tropical cyclone projections, which accommodates the nature of the uncertainty and aims to facilitate robust decision making using the information that is available today. The framework is populated with projections taken from the recent literature to develop a set of scenarios of long-term hurricane hazard. Hazard scenarios are then used to generate risk scenarios for Florida using a coupled climate–catastrophe modeling approach. The scenarios represent a broad range of plausible futures; from wind-related hurricane losses in Florida halving by the end of the century to more than a four-fold increase due to climate change alone. We suggest that it is not possible, based on current evidence, to meaningfully quantify the relative confidence of each scenario. The analyses also suggest that natural variability is likely to be the dominant driver of the level and volatility of wind-related risk over the coming decade; however, under the highest scenario, the superposition of this natural variability and anthropogenic climate change could mean notably increased levels of risk within the decade. Finally, we present a series of analyses to better understand the relative adequacy of the different models that underpin the scenarios and draw conclusions for the design of future climate science and modeling experiments to be most informative for adaptation. 相似文献
16.
Kathryn T. Stevenson M. Nils Peterson Howard D. Bondell Susan E. Moore Sarah J. Carrier 《Climatic change》2014,126(3-4):293-304
Though many climate literacy efforts attempt to communicate climate change as a risk, these strategies may be ineffective because among adults, worldview rather than scientific understanding largely drives climate change risk perceptions. Further, increased science literacy may polarize worldview-driven perceptions, making some climate literacy efforts ineffective among skeptics. Because worldviews are still forming in the teenage years, adolescents may represent a more receptive audience. This study examined how worldview and climate change knowledge related to acceptance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and in turn, climate change risk perception among middle school students in North Carolina, USA (n?=?387). We found respondents with individualistic worldviews were 16.1 percentage points less likely to accept AGW than communitarian respondents at median knowledge levels, mirroring findings in similar studies among adults. The interaction between knowledge and worldview, however, was opposite from previous studies among adults, because increased climate change knowledge was positively related to acceptance of AGW among both groups, and had a stronger positive relationship among individualists. Though individualists were 24.1 percentage points less likely to accept AGW than communitarians at low levels (bottom decile) of climate change knowledge, there was no statistical difference in acceptance levels between individualists and communitarians at high levels of knowledge (top decile). Non-White and females also demonstrated higher levels of AGW acceptance and climate change risk perception, respectively. Thus, education efforts specific to climate change may counteract divisions based on worldviews among adolescents. 相似文献
17.
There is now a growing literature emphasizing the critical importance of social variables in the formulation of coastal management policies seeking to tackle climate change impacts. This paper focuses on the role of social capital, which is increasingly identified as having a significant role in climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. We focus on public perceptions of the social costs and benefits arising from two management options (managed retreat/realignment and hold-the-line), the resulting level of policy acceptability, and how this acceptability is mediated by social capital parameters within coastal communities. These issues are examined by means of a quantitative social survey implemented in Romney Marsh (east Sussex/Kent, UK), an area facing significant impacts from climate change. We tested two models through path analysis with latent structures. The first correlates respondents’ perceived costs and benefits with the level of public acceptability of the two policy options. In the second model, we introduce social capital variables, investigating the impacts on perceived social costs and benefits of the policy options, and the overall effect on the level of public acceptability. Our findings demonstrate: (1) perceived social costs and benefits of proposed policy options influence the level of public acceptability of these policies; (2) these social costs and benefits are connected with the level of public acceptability; and (3) specific social capital parameters (i.e. social trust, institutional trust, social networks and social reciprocity) influence perceived policy costs and benefits, and also have a significant impact on the level of public acceptability of proposed policy options. 相似文献
18.
Public perceptions of rainfall change in India 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
People’s perceptions of changes in local weather patterns are an important precursor to proactive adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we consider public perceptions of changes in average rainfall in India, analyzing the relationship between perceptions and the instrumental record. Using data from a national sample survey, we find that local instrumental records of precipitation are a strong predictor of perceived declines in rainfall. Perceptions of decreasing rainfall were also associated with perceptions of changes in extreme weather events, such as decreasing frequency of floods and severe storms, increasing frequency of droughts, and decreasing predictability of the monsoon. Higher social vulnerability—including low perceived adaptive capacity and greater food and livelihood dependence on local weather—was also associated with perceptions of decreasing rainfall. While both urban and rural respondents were likely to perceive local changes in precipitation, we show that rural respondents in general were more sensitive to actual changes in precipitation. Individual perceptions of changes in local climate may play an important role in shaping vulnerability to global climate change, adaptive behavior, and support for adaptation and mitigation policies. Awareness of local climate change is therefore particularly important in regions where much of the population is highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
19.
Despite decades of research and interventions, crop yields for smallholder farmers across sub-Saharan Africa are dramatically lower than in developed countries. Attempts to address low yields of staple crops in Africa since the Green Revolution through policies and investments in advanced seed cultivars have had mixed results. Numerous countries have heartily embraced and promoted hybrid cultivars through government subsidy programs and investments in research and seed multiplication. One possible explanation for why these programs have not resulted in more significant yield improvements is the challenge faced by farmers to select cultivars that are suited to their local environmental conditions. The question of what seeds farmers choose is exceptionally complex as it is often affected by local seed availability, the availability of information on seed performance, and the transfer of that information to farmers. At the foundation of this choice are farmers’ perceptions of different seed varieties coupled with their perceptions of climate variability. We examine seed choice in Zambia, a country with decades of hybrid maize seed development and supporting policies. We demonstrate how input subsidy programs and seed market liberalization have led to choice overload and a discontinuity in information exchange between farmers and seed companies. The decision making environment is further complicated by the heterogeneity in growing conditions and its variable impact on seed performance, which complicates characterization of seed duration at the farm level. Perceptions and biases related to climate variability effect seed choice, and potentially lead farmers to make risk averse decisions, which ultimately depress maize yields. 相似文献
20.
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on destination choice decisions in a context of domestic coastal tourism in Spain. Destinations are characterized in terms of travel cost and coastal ‘attractors’, such as temperature and beach-related attributes. By means of a discrete choice model based on the random utility theory, these variables are used to explain the observed pattern of interprovincial domestic trips, showing trade-offs between temperature and attractiveness in the probability of a particular destination being chosen. The model is used to investigate the impact of two climate change scenarios on the allocation of domestic tourism within Spain. The findings show that while Spain’s northern colder provinces would benefit from rising temperatures, provinces in the south would experience a decrease in the frequency of trips. 相似文献