共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Modelling results of precision temperature logs made to depths of up to several hundred meters in numerous wells in the Canadian Prairie provinces (mostly Alberta) show evidence of average warming at the ground surface (GST) of 2.1 K (standard deviation = 0.9 K) mostly in the second half of this century. The GST warming signal for which higher frequency noise is cut off by the earth, which acts as a low-pass filter, correlates with the surface air warming (SAT) measured at screen level. A spatial comparison is made between the SAT warming and the GST warming for the last four decades in this region. A GIS (Geographic Information System) area cross tabulation was performed through the intersection of the classes of the ground and surface warming maps with a resulting contingency coefficient C= 0.805. Identical grid samples extracted from the ground warming and surface warming maps were related statistically with a resulting correlation coefficient of r= 0.75. Differences in the magnitudes of the warming exist due to the limited number of compatible data sets, errors in ground warming and air warming reconstructions, and land surface changes affecting the energy balance and subsurface heat fluxes. The influence of these effects requires further study. It is unlikely that all of the sites for which GST warming has been proven to correlate with air warming would have identical topography, vegetation, and hydrogeological disturbances for an area as large as the one under study (about 720,000 km2). The warming effect in the study area, as preserved by the ground, is mainly climate related. 相似文献
2.
A. E. Barkaoui A. Correia Y. Zarhloule A. Rimi J. Carneiro M. Boughriba M. Verdoya 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):431-441
Data from temperature measurements in boreholes are indicators of the temperature variations associated with past climate change. This paper is a contribution to reconstruct the ground surface temperature history (GSTH) from geothermal data in the eastern part of Morocco. From a set of several temperature logs, measured in the study area, only two were found suitable for estimating the ground surface temperature history (GSTH). In order to reconstruct the surface temperature past changes the functional space inversion method (FSI) was used. The inversion reveals a recent warming in the last century with respective amplitude of 0.1 °C and 1 °C for the boreholes 2952 in Oujda and 1624 in Berkane. These results can be confirmed by the air temperature record of the meteorical station in Oujda despite the scarceness of data beyond 1959. 相似文献
3.
M. Gaji?-?apka 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,105(1-2):181-191
The presence of snow along a portion of the Croatian highlands has enabled the development of winter tourism that is primarily oriented toward snow-related activities. Snow is more abundant and stays on the ground longer in the mountainous district of Gorski kotar (south eastern edge of the Alps) and on Mount Velebit (Dinaric Alps), which have elevations of up to 1,600?m and are close to the Adriatic coast than over the inland hilly region of north western Croatia where the summits are not more than approximately 1,000?m high. Basic information about the snow conditions at these locations was gathered for this study, including the annual cycle and probabilities for various snow parameters at different altitudes. As requested by the Croatian Ski Association, the relation between the air temperature and the relative humidity was investigated to determine the feasibility of artificial snowmaking. The snow parameters are highly correlated to air temperature, surface air pressure and precipitation, with certain differences occurring as a result of the altitude. Since the beginning of the second half of the twentieth century, winter warming and a significant increase in the mean air pressure (more anticyclonic situations) have been detected at all sites. Winter precipitation totals decreased at medium altitudes and increased at the summit of Mount Velebit, but these trends were not significant. The frequency of precipitation days and of snowfall decreased whereas an increasing fraction of the precipitation days at high altitudes involved solid precipitation. In contrast, a decreasing fraction of the precipitation days at medium altitudes involved solid precipitation, probably because of the different warming intensities at different altitudes. The mean daily snow depth and the duration of snow cover both slightly decreased at medium altitudes whereas the snow cover duration slightly increased at the mountainous summit of Mount Velebit. 相似文献
4.
利用EOF分解及相关统计方法研究了热带印度洋400m以上的次表层海温异常并对1997/1998年热带印度洋偶极子事件过程进行诊断分析研究。结果表明:热带印度洋次表层400m以上的部分海温距平最大是在100m左右的深度, 就整个热带印度洋而言, 自20世纪80年代以来, 次表层60m以上出现了变暖的趋势, 而80m以下则出现了降温的趋势。同时在热带印度洋次表层80m深度存在着比海表更强的偶极子模态。1997/1998年发生在印度洋海表东冷西暖型的偶极子事件, 是东印度洋次表层的海温正距平西传的结果, 而海温正距平的西传与热带印度洋上东风异常有关, 其物理机制是东风异常激发的Rossby波的作用。 相似文献
5.
Evidence for recent warming from perturbed geothermal gradients: examples from eastern Canada 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Recent variations of the surface temperature of the Earth can be inferred from borehole temperature measurements. Generalized inversion is used to extract the information from the data; the potential of the method is evaluated. Tests were performed with synthetic data to demonstrate the effectiveness of the inversion to recover the gross features of the surface temperature history even when the data are affected by noise and errors. The tests show that it is possible to reconstruct the long term changes in ground temperature during the past 300 years; the resolution decreases with time, in particular if noise and errors must be filtered. Temperature logs, obtained in eastern Canada, and not suspected of being affected by non-climatic factors, have been inverted. The analysis confirms that eastern Canada has experienced warming by 1 to 2°C over the past 100–200 years. The relationship between air and ground temperatures has been examined. In eastern Canada ground temperature follows air temperature closely in summer but stays well above air temperature in winter. The number of days with snow on the ground correlates with the difference between annual mean ground and air temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate-Program 相似文献
6.
地温突升与短期气候变化初探 总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2
利用我国各气象站1954—1985年的地温资料,分析发现3.2m深度的地温有“突然升高”现象,其中大部分不能用地表层的变化来解释。当“地热异常型”的地温突升呈大范围(大于10~3km)群发性时,会使该区域当年降水量明显增多;当“地热异常”呈“孤点”爆发时,不会使该地降水机率增加,但当降水发生时可以增加降水量。 相似文献
7.
Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land. Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. The oceanic influence has occurred through hydrodynamic-radiative teleconnections, primarily by moistening and warming the air over land and increasing the downward longwave radiation at the surface. The oceans may themselves have warmed from a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences. 相似文献
8.
This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990 s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature(SAT) over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990 s. Accompanying this abrupt surface warming, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), annual hottest day temperature(TXx), and annual warmest night temperature(TNx) were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days(SU) and tropical nights(TR).Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature(SST)/ sea ice extent(SIE),anthropogenic greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol(AA) forcing, relative to the period 1964–93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes,although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990 s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA(through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions), mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere–land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990 s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease. 相似文献
9.
The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean–atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001–2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere–ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean. 相似文献
10.
The magnitude and even direction of recent Antarctic climate change is still debated because the paucity of long and complete
instrumental data records. While along Antarctic Peninsula a strong warming coupled with large retreat of glaciers occurred,
in continental Antarctica a cooling was recently detected. Here, the first existing permafrost data set longer than 10 years
recorded in continental Antarctica is presented. Since 1997 summer ground surface temperature showed a strong warming trend
(0.31°C per year) although the air temperature was almost stable. The summer ground surface temperature increase seemed to
be influenced mainly by the increase of the total summer radiation as confirmed also by the increase of the summer thawing
degree days. In the same period the active layer exhibited a thickening trend (1 cm per year) comparable with the thickening
rates observed in several Arctic locations where air warming occurred. At all the investigated depths permafrost exhibited
an increase of mean annual temperature of approximately 0.1°C per year. The dichotomy between active layer thickness and air
temperature trends can produce large unexepected and unmodelled impacts on ecosystems and CO2 balance. 相似文献
11.
Global average ocean temperature variations to 2,000 m depth during 1955–2011 are simulated with a 40 layer 1D forcing-feedback-mixing model for three forcing cases. The first case uses standard anthropogenic and volcanic external radiative forcings. The second adds non-radiative internal forcing (ocean mixing changes initiated in the top 200 m) proportional to the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to represent an internal mode of natural variability. The third case further adds ENSO-related radiative forcing proportional to MEI as a possible natural cloud forcing mechanism associated with atmospheric circulation changes. The model adjustable parameters are net radiative feedback, effective diffusivities, and internal radiative (e.g., cloud) and non-radiative (ocean mixing) forcing coefficients at adjustable time lags. Model output is compared to Levitus ocean temperature changes in 50 m layers during 1955–2011 to 700 m depth, and to lag regression coefficients between satellite radiative flux variations and sea surface temperature between 2000 and 2010. A net feedback parameter of 1.7Wm?2 K?1 with only anthropogenic and volcanic forcings increases to 2.8Wm?2 K?1 when all ENSO forcings (which are one-third radiative) are included, along with better agreement between model and observations. The results suggest ENSO can influence multi-decadal temperature trends, and that internal radiative forcing of the climate system affects the diagnosis of feedbacks. Also, the relatively small differences in model ocean warming associated with the three cases suggests that the observed levels of ocean warming since the 1950s is not a very strong constraint on our estimates of climate sensitivity. 相似文献
12.
Simulation of the anthropogenic aerosols over South Asia and their effects on Indian summer monsoon 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
Zhenming Ji Shichang Kang Dongfeng Zhang Chunzi Zhu Jia Wu Ying Xu 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(9-10):1633-1647
A regional climate model coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model is employed to simulate the anthropogenic aerosols including sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon and their direct effect on climate over South Asia. The model is driven by the NCAR/NCEP re-analysis data. Multi-year simulations with half, normal and double emission fluxes are conducted. Results show that the model performs well in reproducing present climate over the region. Simulations of the aerosol optical depth and surface concentration of aerosols are also reasonable although to a less extent. The negative radiative forcing is found at the top of atmosphere and largely depended on emission concentration. Surface air temperature decreases by 0.1?C0.5°C both in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The range and intensity of cooling areas enlarge while aerosol emission increases. Changes in precipitation are between ?25 and 25%. Different diversifications of rainfall are showed with three emission scenarios. The changes of precipitation are consistent with varieties of monsoon onset dates in pre-monsoon season. In the regions of increasing precipitation, monsoon onset is advanced and vice versa. In northeast India and Myanmar, aerosols lead the India summer monsoon onset advancing 1?C2 pentads, and delaying by 1?C2 pentads in central and southeast India. These changes are mainly caused by the anomaly of local Hadley circulations and enhancive precipitation. Tibetan Plateau played a crucial role in the circulation changes. 相似文献
13.
Attribution of twentieth century temperature change to natural and anthropogenic causes 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
P. A. Stott S. F. B. Tett G. S. Jones M. R. Allen W. J. Ingram J. F. B. Mitchell 《Climate Dynamics》2001,17(1):1-21
We analyse possible causes of twentieth century near-surface temperature change. We use an “optimal detection” methodology
to compare seasonal and annual data from the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model HadCM2 with observations averaged
over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The results indicate that the increases in temperature observed in the latter
half of the century have been caused by warming from anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases offset by cooling from tropospheric
sulfate aerosols rather than natural variability, either internal or externally forced. We also find that greenhouse gases
are likely to have contributed significantly to the warming in the first half of the century. In addition, natural effects
may have contributed to this warming. Assuming one particular reconstruction of total solar irradiance to be correct implies,
when we take the seasonal cycle into account, that solar effects have contributed significantly to the warming observed in
the early part of the century, regardless of any relative error in the amplitudes of the anthropogenic forcings prescribed
in the model. However, this is not the case with an alternative reconstruction of total solar irradiance, based more on the
amplitude than the length of the solar cycle. We also find evidence for volcanic influences on twentieth century near-surface
temperatures. The signature of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo is detected using annual-mean data. We also find evidence for
a volcanic influence on warming in the first half of the century associated with a reduction in mid-century volcanism.
Received: 24 January 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2000 相似文献
14.
In this study, the contributions from changes in man-made greenhouse gases (GHG), anthropogenic aerosols (AA), and land use (LU), as well as natural solar and volcanic (NAT) forcing changes, to observed changes in surface air temperature (T) and precipitation (P) over global land, especially over arid-semiarid areas, during 1946–2005 are quantified using observations and climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that the anthropogenic (ANT) forcings dominate the ubiquitous surface warming seen in observations and lead to slight increases in precipitation over most land areas, while the NAT forcing leads to small cooling over land. GHG increases are the primary factor responsible for the anthropogenic climate change, while the AA forcing offsets a large part of the GHG-induced warming and P changes. The LU forcing generally contributes little to the T and P changes from 1946 to 2005 over most land areas. Unlike the consistent temperature changes among most model simulations, precipitation changes display a large spread among the models and are incomparable with the observations in spatial distributions and magnitude, mainly due to its large internal variability that varies among individual model runs. Using an optimal fingerprinting method, we find that the observed warming over land during 1946–2005 can be largely attributed to the ANT forcings, and the combination of the ANT and NAT forcings can explain about 85~95% of the observed warming trend over global land as well as over most arid-semiarid regions such as Northern China. However, the anthropogenic influences on precipitation over the past 60 years are generally undetectable over most land areas, including most arid-semiarid regions. This indicates that internal variability is still larger than the forced change for land precipitation. 相似文献
15.
Abstract Winter operation of an acoustic sounder at Calgary, Alberta, has led to some unique observations during Chinook periods. Acoustic backscatter records obtained in these periods reveal an identifiable pattern of events in the atmospheric boundary layer. Descending turbulent structures are observed in pre‐Chinook conditions; the arrival of these structures near ground is associated with the onset of ground‐level warming. When ground‐level temperatures have risen to near 0°C, a deep (200–500 m thick) characteristic region of turbulence is generated in the boundary layer. The correlation of these features with surface wind and temperature data is discussed. 相似文献
16.
工业革命以来人类活动带来的温室气体日益增加,导致全球气温持续升高。然而,1998年以来全球变暖出现了停滞(hiatus)现象。本文回顾了近年来有关全球变暖停滞的研究进展,着重讨论变暖停滞的物理机制。目前有关变暖停滞的机制有两种观点:一种观点认为全球变暖停滞是由于外强迫造成的,另一种则认为是自然变率产生的。外强迫的观点主要归结为太阳活动强迫、火山喷发气溶胶强迫、人类活动产生的气溶胶强迫以及平流层水汽强迫四种作用。自然变率的观点则认为人类活动产生的多余热量进入到深海,尤其是海表700 m以下,且认为主要是由于海洋的作用。持这种观点的又分两种意见,一种认为是太平洋年代际振荡的影响,尤其是赤道东太平洋海表温度变冷;另一种则认为是大西洋经向翻转流的影响。目前主流观点认为,自然变率是产生全球变暖停滞的主要机制,人类活动产生的多余热量进入到深海,不过多余热量进入哪些海域尚存争议。 相似文献
17.
A dataset of air temperature and precipitation time series (1959?C2008) from 61 stations across Shanxi, China is used to analyze the climate change. The monotonic trends and step (abrupt) trends for annual and seasonal series data of mean air temperature and total precipitation are tested by using Mann?CKendall test and Mann?CWhitney test, respectively. The results show that annual mean air temperature has increased by 1.20°C during the past 50?years. Winter, spring, and autumn have experienced a significant increase in air temperature. The step trend for annual mean air temperature is different from, but closely related with, those for seasonal mean air temperature. Spatially, there is an enhanced warming trend from south to north in Shanxi, and the most remarkable warming occurs in northern Shanxi. Annual precipitation has decreased by 99.20?mm during the past half century. The decrease is mainly caused by precipitation decline in rainy season (June?CSeptember), though precipitation in post-rainy season (October?CNovember) also tended to decrease. An abrupt decrease in precipitation has occurred since late 1970s. Decrease in precipitation is highest in central Shanxi and in the area along the west fringe between Sanchuan River and Fenhe River in western Shanxi. 相似文献
18.
The Greenland coastal temperatures have followed the early 20th century global warming trend. Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal stations data have undergone predominantly a cooling trend. At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2 °C per decade since the beginning of the measurements in 1987. This suggests that the Greenland ice sheet and coastal regions are not following the current global warming trend. A considerable and rapid warming over all of coastal Greenland occurred in the 1920s when the average annual surface air temperature rose between 2 and 4 °C in less than ten years (at some stations the increase in winter temperature was as high as 6 °C). This rapid warming, at a time when the change in anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases was well below the current level, suggests a high natural variability in the regional climate. High anticorrelations (r = ?0.84 to?0.93) between the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index and Greenland temperature time series suggest a physical connection between these processes. Therefore, the future changes in the NAO and Northern Annular Mode may be of critical consequence to the future temperature forcing of the Greenland ice sheet melt rates. 相似文献
19.
气溶胶对青藏高原气候变化影响的数值模拟分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用美国大气研究中心(NCAR)提供的2组数值试验结果对比,分析了只考虑温室气体增加(1%CO2试验)和综合考虑大气温室气体与气溶胶持续增加(50yrs试验)条件下,青藏高原地区地表温度、积雪深度及其他气候要素的变化,并在此基础上探讨了大气气溶胶含量变化对高原气候变化的可能影响.分析结果表明:只考虑大气CO2含量每年增加1%的变化时,青藏高原相对邻近地区地表温度显著增加,春、夏、秋及冬季地表温度线性增温率均表现出随着海拔高度升高而增强.例如,在海拔1.5～2 km,3～3.5 km和4.5～5 km范围内对应的冬季增温趋势分别为0.29 ℃/10 a,0.36 ℃/10 a和0.50 ℃/10 a.在温室气体引起的高原增暖过程中地表积雪深度普遍降低,且高海拔地区的积雪减少愈加明显.当综合考虑气溶胶和温室气体含量共同增加时,青藏高原地表增暖相对偏弱,春、夏和秋季增温也随海拔高度上升而加强,但冬季地面增温幅度随海拔上升反而下降,海拔1.5～2 km,3～3.5km和4.5～5 km范围内对应的冬季增温趋势分别为0.02 ℃/10 a,-0.03 ℃/10 a和-0.13 ℃/10 a.对比分析发现,大气气溶胶增加造成青藏高原冬季增温不明显甚至出现变冷趋势,地面积雪也随之增多,这可能歪曲了青藏高原地区气候变暖对海拔高度的依赖性. 相似文献
20.
An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto Masahide Kimoto Masayoshi Ishii Takashi Mochizuki Takashi T. Sakamoto Hiroaki Tatebe Yoshiki Komuro Masahiro Watanabe Toru Nozawa Hideo Shiogama Masato Mori Sayaka Yasunaka Yukiko Imada 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(5-6):1201-1222
Decadal climate predictability is examined in hindcast experiments by a multi-model ensemble using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In these hindcast experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure using the observed oceanic temperature and salinity with prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings on the basis of the historical data and future emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Results of the multi-model ensemble in our hindcast experiments show that predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies on decadal timescales mostly originates from externally forced variability. Although the predictable component of internally generated variability has considerably smaller SAT variance than that of externally forced variability, ocean subsurface temperature variability has predictive skills over almost a decade, particularly in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic where dominant signals associated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are observed. Initialization enhances the predictive skills of AMO and PDO indices and slightly improves those of global mean temperature anomalies. Improvement of these predictive skills in the multi-model ensemble is higher than that in a single-model ensemble. 相似文献