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1.
Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.  相似文献   

2.
In the framework of climate change, the increase in ocean heat wave frequency is expected to impact marine life. Large-scale positive temperature anomalies already occurred in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea in 1999, 2003 and 2006. These anomalies were associated with mass mortality events of macrobenthic species in coastal areas (0–40 m in depth). The anomalies were particularly severe in 1999 and 2003 when thousands of kilometres of coasts and about 30 species were affected. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology to assess the current risk of mass mortality associated with temperature increase along NW Mediterranean continental coasts. A 3D regional ocean model was used to obtain the temperature conditions for the period 2001–2010, for which the model outputs were validated by comparing them with in situ observations in affected areas. The model was globally satisfactory, although extremes were underestimated and required correction. Combined with information on the thermo-tolerance of a key species (the red gorgonian P. clavata) as well as its spatial distribution, the modelled temperature conditions were then used to assess the risk of mass mortality associated with thermal stress for the first time. Most of the known areas of observed mass mortality were found using the model, although the degree of risk in certain areas was underestimated. Using climatic IPCC scenarios, the methodology could be applied to explore the impacts of expected climate change in the NW Mediterranean. This is a key issue for the development of sound management and conservation plans to protect Mediterranean marine biodiversity in the face of climate change.  相似文献   

3.
The impact of raft mussel-culture in Saldanha Bay, South Africa on macrobenthic community structure (abundance and biomass) was studied. Sampling was conducted in January between 1993 and 1996 to assess: (1) the composition of macrobenthos below rafts relative to outside the farm; (2) effects of raft position and age within the farm; and (3) recovery rate of benthos after raft removal. Analyses included ABC plots, hierarchical clustering and species diversity indices. Disturbed communities were found under 78% of raft sites sampled. The level of disturbance (Warwick Statistics) and the dominant opportunistic species (Bray–Curtis Similarities) changed from year to year, polychaetes and scavenging gastropods being most common. The degree of disturbance appeared related to raft sites positioned in the middle of the farm rather than raft age. Whereas ABC plots and hierarchical cluster analyses best identified the disturbance of benthic communities, diversity indices detected marginal recovery four years after raft removal. Although deposit feeders dominated all sites, suspension feeders increased in number and biomass at reference sites. This study presented a “yes/no” scenario that will be addressed in subsequent research in the modelling of culture ecosystems.  相似文献   

4.
Variability and possible relationship between monthly 1-day maximum/minimum flow from headwater of Tarim River basin, climatic indices and regional climate were detected by Mann–Kendall test, continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet and wavelet coherence methods. The results showed that: (1) hydrological extremes have increased during past 50 years, and the trends of 1-day minimum flow were larger than that of 1-day maximum flow. The most significant change occurred in winter; (2) the hydrological extremes exhibited significant 1-year period and 0.5-year period along the whole hydrological series; (3) different circulation indices may influence the trends of hydrological extremes in different river. The area of polar vortex in North American (i25) and area of Northern Hemisphere polar vortex (i5) showed most significant correlation with 1-day maximum flow and 1-day minimum flow in Aksu River, respectively. In Hotan River, the most significant correlated climate indices with 1-day maximum and minimum flow were Southern oscillation index and area of Northern American Subtropical High (i15), respectively. The area of polar vortex in Atlantic and Europe Sector (i35) showed significant relationships with 1-day minimum flow in Yarkand River; (4) regions of shared power at 0.8–1.5 year mode were found between selected climate indices and the hydrological extremes, anti-phase relations were detected for most of the series; (5) the fluctuations of temperature have strong effects on hydrological extremes, and significant coherence between regional climate and extremes was found at 0.7–1.5 year scale. The results of the study provide valuable information for improving the long-term forecasting of the hydrological extremes using its relationship with climate indices.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

The global climate change may have serious impacts on the frequency, magnitude, location and duration of hydrological extremes. Changed hydrological extremes will have important implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood-plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is developed using a weather generating algorithm, linked with GCM outputs. These climate scenarios are then transformed into basin runoff by a semi-distributed hydrological model of the study area. The results show that future maximum river flows in the study area will be less extreme and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence, than they are at present. Low flows may become less extreme and variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence. According to the evaluated scenarios, climate change may have favourable impacts on the distribution of hydrological extremes in the study area.  相似文献   

6.
Tidal flat ecosystem simulators are used to clarify the effects of stranded fuel oil on tidal flat ecosystems. Results show that oil spills increase the periphyton on sediment by decreasing the predation stress caused by deposit feeders. About a month after an oil spill, the total population density of the macrobenthos recovered. The oxidation-reduction potential in the surface sediment drops to a negative value after the oil spill, and the anaerobic condition throughout the sediment seems to be responsible for the decrease in the population density of the macrobenthos. The infiltration volume of seawater into the oil-stranded sediment decreases to a third of that without the oil spill. The recovery of infiltration volume after about a month coincides with the recovery of the population density of the macrobenthos. This result suggests that the macrobenthic population is highly dependent on the infiltration of seawater.  相似文献   

7.
We investigated the effects of river floods on the macrobenthic community of the intertidal flat in the Ohta River Estuary, Japan, from 2005 to 2010. Sediment erosion by flood events ranged from about 2–3 cm to 12 cm, and the salinity dropped to 0‰ even during low-intensity flood events. Cluster analysis of the macrobenthic population showed that the community structure was controlled by the physical disturbance, decreased salinity, or both. The opportunistic polychaete Capitella sp. was the most dominant species in all clusters, and populations of the long-lived polychaete Ceratonereis erythraeensis increased in years with stable flow and almost disappeared in years with intense flooding. The bivalve Musculista senhousia was also an important opportunistic species that formed mats in summer of the stable years and influenced the structure of the macrobenthic community. Our results demonstrate the substantial effects of flood events on the macrobenthic community structure.  相似文献   

8.
A two-year study was conducted in the vicinity of a harbour in sub-tropical Hong Kong, to examine the progress of recovery of macrobenthic community, based on analyses of both life-history traits and trophic guilds of polychaetes, upon cessation of organic pollution caused by sewage discharge. Seventy seven out of 83 species collected were classified under four ecological groups based on the life-history traits and sensitivity to organic gradients. The mean ATZI marine biotic index (AMBI) derived from these ecological groups showed spatial difference among the five sampling locations. In particular, the presence of different percentages of polychaete species from Groups III (unbalanced community) and IV (polluted community) suggested the presence of pollution stress in certain degree at all sampling locations. However, no significant temporal changes were noted over the study period. From all polychaete species identified, they were classified into 13 feeding guilds. The mean diversity of these feeding guilds at most of the sampling locations was significantly higher than that at one of the inside-harbour locations. The composition of feeding guilds was also significantly different spatially. At one of the inside-harbour locations, the dominant feeding guilds were motile/discretely motile surface deposit feeders with tentaculates or unarmed pharynx, and motile omnivores with jawed pharynx in the first year of study, but were replaced by motile, jawed carnivores in the second year of study. The increased proportion of carnivores over the study period can be seen as a sign of recovery in the community structure since abundance of predators is commonly higher in habitats with better environmental quality. The implications of using life-history traits and feeding guild analyses for benthic community are discussed.  相似文献   

9.
Coastal areas are typically subjected to a range of stressors, but they now face the additional stressor of climate change, manifested in part by an increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Thus, the Mondego estuary (Portugal) has experienced organic enrichment (eutrophication) issues and these are potentially exacerbated by extreme weather events (floods, droughts and heat waves). In this paper, we explore the impact of interactions of these different stressors on the ecology of the system, specifically on the two key components, the seagrass Zostera noltii and the mud snail Hydrobia ulvae. Extreme events affected different components of the estuarine ecosystem (primary producers and macrofauna) differently. Whilst the floods directly impacted on H. ulvae, by wiping out part of its population, they did not directly affect the biomass of Z. noltii. In contrast, drought events, through their effects on salinity, directly impacted the biomass of Zostera, which had knock-on effects on the dynamics of H. ulvae. We conclude that over the period when the estuary experienced eutrophication, extreme weather events contributed to the overall degradation of the estuary, while during the recovery phase following the introduction of a management programme, those extreme weather episodes delayed the recovery process significantly.  相似文献   

10.
The multi-decadal wave conditions in the North Sea can be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. That may lead to the intensification of wave extremes in the future and consequently increase risks for the coastal areas as well as for on- and offshore human activities. Potential changes caused by alteration of atmospheric patterns are investigated. Four transient climate projections (1961–2100), reflecting two IPCC emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two different initial states, are used to simulate the wave scenarios. The potential wind-induced changes in waves are studied by comparing future statistics (2001–2100) with the corresponding reference conditions (1961–2000). Generally, there is a small increase in future 99th percentile significant wave height for most eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century. This small increase is superimposed by a strong variability of the annual extremes on time scales of decades. Opposite to the differences in wave height, the change in wave direction to more waves propagating east shows less decadal variability and is more uniform among all realizations. Nevertheless, temporal and spatial differences of the wave height in the four climate projections point to the uncertainties in the climate change signals.  相似文献   

11.
1988-2016年洞庭湖大型底栖动物群落变化及驱动因素分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
洞庭湖是我国第二大淡水湖泊,其水文条件对湖泊湿地生态系统健康的维系发挥着不可替代的作用.近年来,水环境恶化日益威胁湖区水生态系统健康.然而,有关底栖动物水生态健康评价的研究仍然停留在物种群落结构方面,缺乏底栖动物群落功能对水污染响应的研究,尤其在较长时间尺度上.因而,本研究分析了19882016年近30 a来洞庭湖的水质和底栖动物群落数据,探寻底栖动物群落功能对水环境恶化的响应规律.结果表明,洞庭湖水体总氮浓度是威胁底栖动物物种和功能群落变动的主要因素.此外,不断恶化的水环境驱动底栖动物物种和功能群落结构改变,表现为敏感水生昆虫的比例下降,寡毛类、小型软体动物比例的上升,并伴随着体长为1.00~1.99 cm、背扁型、侧扁型、不移动等功能性状类别比例的下降.同时,水环境恶化降低物种丰富度、功能丰富度和劳氏二次熵多样性.基于距离的冗余分析结果显示,水体氮营养盐、重金属离子和有机污染物共同驱动底栖动物物种群落结构的变异,而营养盐类与无/有机污染物决定着其功能群落结构的变异.鉴于洞庭湖水质不断恶化的状况,本研究建议采取一系列措施,包括合理管控湖区周边废水直排入湖、取缔湖区内的非法采砂以及调控枯水季洞庭湖水位等.生物监测和评价方面,建议将底栖动物物种和功能群落一并纳入评价体系,且优先选用物种丰富度、功能丰富度和劳氏二次熵指数评估换水周期较短的大型浅水湖泊水质变化对底栖动物物种和功能多样性的影响.  相似文献   

12.
The trophic structure of a community is used to infer ecosystem functioning(e.g. energy transfer and nutrient cycling). Here the trophic structure of the benthic infaunal and epifaunal communities in the Brunei Estuary are characterized, and their distribution along an estuarine pH gradient is analyzed using univariate and multivariate techniques. This analysis revealed that surface deposit feeders(e.g., polychaetes) were numerically dominant within the infaunal communities whereas in the epifaunal communities filter feeders(e.g., bivalves) were highly abundant. Species richness for almost all trophic groups increased toward the lower estuary, except for omnivores in the epifaunal communities, which decreased markedly. Both Analysis of Variance(ANOVA) and Analysis of Similarities(ANOSIM) detected significant differences in the density of respective trophic groups among stations. Within infaunal communities, both Biological and Environmental procedure(BIO-ENV) and Canonical Correspondence Analysis(CCA) showed that trophic shifts were associated with environmental gradients. Surface-deposit feeders and omnivores were the most abundant macrobenthos of the upper estuary characterized by low salinity, low pH, and a higher percentage of mud particles. The proportion of filter feeders and carnivores increased with salinity/pH and sand. A more uniform distribution of trophic structure was found in the lower estuary, with high salinity and pH over sandy habitat. In contrast, within epifaunal trophic groups,the percentage of surface deposit feeders and omnivores declined, but filter feeders remarkably increased toward the sea. The proportion of carnivores remained similar at all stations. Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling(nMDS) ordination for epifaunal trophic groups clearly demarcated higher salinity/pH stations from lower salinity/pH stations, suggesting different trophic compositions along the estuarine pH gradient.  相似文献   

13.
The effects of discharged drilling cuttings contaminated with oil-based drilling fluids on the macrobenthos surrounding several North Sea oil-production platforms have been well documented. Areas of biological effect ranging from highly modified benthic communities, through transitional zones to undisturbed zones have been identified and characterized. Results are presented from a series of studies at the Murchison oil field which indicate partial recovery of macrofaunal communities around the production platform after cuttings discharges had ceased. Eventual rates of recovery of affected macrobenthic communities around production platforms are discussed in terms of persistence of oil in the drilling cuttings and the rates of degradation of the oil and its toxic components.  相似文献   

14.
One of the most significant anticipated consequences of global climate change is the increased frequency of hydrologic extremes. Predictions of climate change impacts on the regime of hydrologic extremes have traditionally been conducted using a top‐down approach. The top‐down approach involves a high degree of uncertainty associated with global circulation model (GCM) outputs and the choice of downscaling technique. This study attempts to explore an inverse approach to the modelling of hydrologic risk and vulnerability to changing climatic conditions. With a focus targeted at end‐users, the proposed approach first identifies critical hydrologic exposures that may lead to local failures of existing water resources systems. A hydrologic model is used to transform inversely the main hydrologic exposures, such as floods and droughts, into corresponding meteorological conditions. The frequency of critical meteorological situations is investigated under present and future climatic scenarios by means of a generic weather generator. The weather generator, linked with GCMs at the last step of the proposed methodology, allows the creation of an ensemble of different scenarios, as well as an easy updating, when new and improved GCM outputs become available. The technique has been applied in Ontario, Canada. The results show significant changes in the frequency of hydro‐climatic extremes under future climate scenarios in the study area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Space–time variability of precipitation plays a key role as driver of many environmental processes. The objective of this study is to evaluate a spatiotemporal (STG) Neyman–Scott Rectangular Pulses (NSRP) generator over orographically complex terrain for statistical downscaling of climate models. Data from 145 rain gauges over a 5760-km2 area of Cyprus for 1980–2010 were used for this study. The STG was evaluated for its capacity to reproduce basic rainfall statistical properties, spatial intermittency, and extremes. The results were compared with a multi-single site NRSP generator (MSG). The STG performed well in terms of average annual rainfall (+1.5 % in comparison with the 1980–2010 observations), but does not capture spatial intermittency over the study area and extremes well. Daily events above 50 mm were underestimated by 61 %. The MSG produced a similar error (+1.1 %) in terms of average annual rainfall, while the daily extremes (>50-mm) were underestimated by 11 %. A gridding scheme based on scaling coefficients was used to interpolate the MSG data. Projections of three Regional Climate Models, downscaled by MSG, indicate a 1.5–12 % decrease in the mean annual rainfall over Cyprus for 2020–2050. Furthermore, the number of extremes (>50-mm) for the 145 stations is projected to change between ?24 and +2 % for the three models. The MSG modelling approach maintained the daily rainfall statistics at all grid cells, but cannot create spatially consistent daily precipitation maps, limiting its application to spatially disconnected applications. Further research is needed for the development of spatial non-stationary NRSP models.  相似文献   

16.
Groundwater exchanges with lakes resulting from cyclical wet and dry climate extremes maintain lake levels in the environment in ways that are not well understood, in part because they remain difficult to simulate. To better understand the atypical groundwater interactions with lakes caused by climatic extremes, an original conceptual approach is introduced using MODFLOW‐2005 and a kinematic‐wave approximation to variably saturated flow that allows lake size and position in the basin to change while accurately representing the daily lake volume and three‐dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow responses in the basin. Daily groundwater interactions are simulated for a calibrated lake basin in Florida over a decade that included historic wet and dry departures from the average rainfall. The divergent climate extremes subjected nearly 70% of the maximum lakebed area and 75% of the maximum shoreline perimeter to both groundwater inflow and lake leakage. About half of the lakebed area subject to flow reversals also went dry. A flow‐through pattern present for 73% of the decade caused net leakage from the lake 80% of the time. Runoff from the saturated lake margin offset the groundwater deficit only about half of that time. A centripetal flow pattern present for 6% of the decade was important for maintaining the lake stage and generated 30% of all net groundwater inflow. Pumping effects superimposed on dry climate extremes induced the least frequent but most cautionary flow pattern with leakage from over 90% of the actual lakebed area.  相似文献   

17.
Since 1967, the alumina plants in the Marseilles area (Barasse and Gardanne) have been discharging the mineral residue (i.e., red mud) resulting from the alkaline processing of bauxite into the submarine Cassidaigne canyon (north-western Mediterranean Sea) through pipes situated at 320-330 m in depth. The Barasse pipe stopped being used in 1988. From 1987 to 1996, many decrees and regulations were promulgated by the French State to rule the conditions under which the Gardanne alumina refinery was authorized to dispose of the bauxite residue in the sea. The refinery was required: (i) to study the hydrodynamic circulation in the Cassidaigne canyon to evaluate the potential dispersion and transport of fine elements discharged into the water mass and their impact on the pelagic ecosystem; (ii) to survey the marine environment every five years to control the expansion and thickness of the red mud deposit and compare the evolution of the benthic macrofauna at representative sampling sites in the environment affected by the red mud discharge with that of reference sites outside of the red mud plume; (iii) to study the effect of the discharge on fishing activities; and (iv) to investigate the toxicity of the red mud, particularly its persistence, accumulation, interaction and effect on the marine ecosystem, paying special attention to the bio-accumulation of chromium and vanadium. A Scientific Committee was created to insure an independent evaluation of the studies promised by the manufacturer in response to the State’s regulations. Since the beginning of the 1960s, data have been accumulating on the structure and long-term functioning of the Cassidaigne bathyal ecosystem. This paper presents the collaborative efforts of the State-Manufacturer-Committee triplet and summarizes the main results obtained during the last period’s sea campaigns (1991-2007). This paper also illustrates how national regulations concerning manufacturers, such as Gardanne alumina refinery, have provided new knowledge about the structure and functioning of a bathyal ecosystem in the Cassidaigne canyon in the north-western Mediterranean Sea.  相似文献   

18.
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19.
A two-year study was conducted in the vicinity of a harbour in sub-tropical Hong Kong, to examine the progress of improvement in sediment quality and recovery of macrobenthic community upon cessation of organic pollution caused by sewage discharge. Median sediment particle diameter (Mdphi) and levels of total organic carbon (TOC), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), ammonia-nitrogen (NH(3)-N) and total phosphorus (TP), as well as macrobenthic species composition and abundance were determined bi-monthly at three inside-harbour and two outside-harbour locations. At the two inside-harbour locations, significantly higher levels of TOC, TKN, NH(3)-N and TP in sediments were observed than the outside-harbour locations. However, no significant temporal change of nutrient levels was detected at all sampling locations during the two-year study, except a significant decrease in TKN and NH(3)-N levels at one outside-harbour location and a decline in NH(3)-N content at another outside-harbour location. Spatially, the highest in mean total species number, individual number, species diversity H' and lowest evenness J was found at one outside-harbour location, whereas the other four locations had relatively similar values. H' was negatively correlated with TOC, TKN, NH(3)-N and TP content in sediments while J was positively correlated with MDphi. Across the study period, the patterns of macrobenthic community were significantly different among all samplings and that the spatial difference of benthic community was best correlated with MDphi, TOC, TKN and water depth. A weak sign of recovery in macrobenthic community structure was detected at inside-harbour locations, with replacement of opportunistic by ubiquitous species over the two-year study. The slow recovery of macrobenthic community was related to sediment characteristics. Results of a larval settlement bioassay using the polychaete Capitella sp. I also demonstrated that the inside-harbour sediments were still unfavourable for colonization and larval settlement of species sensitive to pollution. The slow biodegradation of the organic pollutants and continuous presence of heavy metals in the sediment may hinder settlement and colonization of benthic animals. However, increases of H' and J were observed in a longer time scale when comparing the present data with those obtained four years ago. This suggested that a detectable recovery of benthic community in the harbour may take at least three years and a complete recovery may even take longer duration.  相似文献   

20.
An essential part of hydrological research focuses on hydrological extremes, such as river peak flows and associated floods, because of their large impact on economy, environment, and human life. These extremes can be affected by potential future environmental change, including global climate change and land cover change. In this paper, the relative impact of both climate change and urban expansion on the peak flows and flood extent is investigated for a small‐scale suburban catchment in Belgium. A rainfall‐runoff model was coupled to a hydrodynamic model in order to simulate the present‐day and future river streamflow. The coupled model was calibrated based on a series of measured water depths and, after model validation, fed with different climate change and urban expansion scenarios in order to evaluate the relative impact of both driving factors on the peak flows and flood extent. The three climate change scenarios that were used (dry, wet winter, wet summer) were based on a statistical downscaling of 58 different RCM and GCM scenario runs. The urban expansion scenarios were based on three different urban growth rates (low, medium, high urban expansion) that were set up by means of an extrapolation of the observed trend of urban expansion. The results suggest that possible future climate change is the main source of uncertainty affecting changes in peak flow and flood extent. The urban expansion scenarios show a more consistent trend. The potential damage related to a flood is, however, mainly influenced by land cover changes that occur in the floodplain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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