共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
This study aims at evaluating the uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture (1D, vertical column) from an offline land surface model (LSM) forced by hydro-meteorological and radiation data. We focus on two types of uncertainty: an input error due to satellite rainfall retrieval uncertainty, and, LSM soil-parametric error. The study is facilitated by in situ and remotely sensed data-driven (precipitation, radiation, soil moisture) simulation experiments comprising a LSM and stochastic models for error characterization. The parametric uncertainty is represented by the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) technique, which models the parameter non-uniqueness against direct observations. Half-hourly infra-red (IR) sensor retrievals were used as satellite rainfall estimates. The IR rain retrieval uncertainty is characterized on the basis of a satellite rainfall error model (SREM). The combined uncertainty (i.e., SREM + GLUE) is compared with the partial assessment of uncertainty. It is found that precipitation (IR) error alone may explain moderate to low proportion of the soil moisture simulation uncertainty, depending on the level of model accuracy—50–60% for high model accuracy, and 20–30% for low model accuracy. Comparisons on the basis of two different sites also yielded an increase (50–100%) in soil moisture prediction uncertainty for the more vegetated site. This study exemplified the need for detailed investigations of the rainfall retrieval-modeling parameter error interaction within a comprehensive space-time stochastic framework for achieving optimal integration of satellite rain retrievals in land data assimilation systems. 相似文献
2.
The interior potential of a spherical planetary body (and the corresponding density distribution) is expressed as the sum of two parts, the first given uniquely by the external gravity field and the surface density and the second depending on an arbitrary function. The first part of the potential (density distribution) is shown to be a 3-harmonic (biharmonic) function, while the second part can be expressed as a series whose i-th term (for i 0) is an (i + 4)-harmonic ((i + 3)-harmonic) function. From this general solution a single solution is then chosen: this is done by imposing certain natural conditions on it, among others that this particular solution is an n-harmonic function for n as small as possible.
The paper explains shortly this method of solving the inverse problem of gravimetry; details are presented in Pohánka (1993). 相似文献
3.
Mike Jackson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1991,136(1):1-28
The magnetic fabric of rocks and sediments is most commonly characterized in terms of the anisotropy of low-field magnetic susceptibility (AMS). However, alternative methods based on remanent magnetization (measured in the absence of a magnetic field) rather than induced magnetization (measured in the applied field) have distinct advantages for certain geological applications. This is particularly true for; (1) adjunct studies in paleomagnetism, in order to assess the fidelity with which a natural remanence records the paleofield orientation; (2) studies of weakly magnetic or weakly deformed rocks, for which susceptibility anisotropy is very difficult to measure precisely; and (3) quantitative applications such as strain estimation. The fundamental differences between susceptibility and remanence (and their respective anisotropies) are due to several factors: (1) susceptibility arises from all of the minerals present in a sample, whereas remanence is carried exclusively by a relatively small number of ferromagnetic minerals; (2) ferromagnetic minerals are generally more anisotropic than para- and diamagnetic minerals; (3) for ferromagnetic minerals, remanence is inevitably more anisotropic than susceptibility; and (4) a number of common minerals, including single-domain magnetites, possess an inverse anisotropy of susceptibility, i.e., they tend to have minimum susceptibility parallel to the long axis of an individual particle; remanence is immune to this phenomenon. As a consequence of all these factors, remanence anisotropy may generally provide a better quantitative estimate of the actual distribution of particle orientations in a rock sample.Contribution number 9102 of the Institute for Rock Magnetism, University of Minnesota. 相似文献
4.
A regional assessment of the arsenic (As) contamination scenario in shallow tube wells (depth < 150 m) of western Bangladesh is presented. Comparisons are made in light of bulk geological differences (Pleistocene versus Holocene deposits/northwest versus southwest) and As measurement protocols (field kit (FK) versus atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS)). Our As database comprised the following: (1) the nationwide As survey completed in 1999 by the British Geological Survey in collaboration with the Department of Public Health Engineering (DPHE); and (2) a regional As survey conducted in southwest Bangladesh by the Japan International Cooperation Agency in collaboration with DPHE in 2002. First, we characterize the error structure of the semi‐quantitative FK As measurements using collocated AAS As measurements as reference from a set of 307 wells located in southwest Bangladesh. The depth distribution of As is identified using a very dense cluster of 2963 wells over a 560 km2 domain. The probability of the FK method for successful detection of a well sample as unsafe (safe) was found to be 96·9% (34·1%) and 95·2% (80·3%) for the World Health Organization (WHO) and Bangladesh safe limits, respectively. Similarly, the probability of false alarms and false hopes for WHO (Bangladesh) safe limits were found to be 3·1% (4·8%) and 87·5% (19·7%), respectively. The depth at which the highest fraction of wells exceeding a given safe limit occurred could still be inferred correctly by FK measurements. A simple bias adjustment procedure on FK As data did not result in a more accurate characterization of depth distribution of As. This indicated that simple error statistics are inadequate for advancing the utility of FKs; rather, an understanding of the complex and multidimensional error structure is required. Regional anisotropy in the spatial dependence of As for the northwest was found to be stronger than the southwest. The correlation length for As concentration in the east–west direction of northwest Bangladesh (i.e. across major river floodplains) was found to be almost twice (158·80 km) that of the north–south direction (along the major axis of Pleistocene deposits) (78·21 km). For the southwest region, the ratio of east–west to north–south correlation lengths ranged from 1·40 to 1·51. For the northwest region, because it is well known to have the lowest concentrations of As countrywide, knowledge of this anisotropy appears to suggest the need for drilling twice as many remediation deep wells in the proximity of an unsafe shallow well in the north–south direction than in the east–west direction. Findings from this study are potentially useful in setting priority areas for emergency testing, distributing remediation resources equitably and formulating a regional water resources strategy for western Bangladesh. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
A theoretical investigation of the dynamic response of earth dams to the travelling seismic waves is presented. The earth dam is simplified as a truncated two-dimensional elastic wedge. The dam body consists of an isotropical linear viscoelastic material with homogeneous elastic modulus and density. The seismic waves travel along the longitudinal direction of the earth dam. The numerical calculations show the following. (i) For the longitudinal mode of vibration, the greater the ratio (H/L) of the height to the lenght of the complete wedge, the more the natural transverse period of vibrational of the two-dimensional wedge is less than that of the one-dimensional wedge. Especially for the first two natural transverse period, this influence is large. The decrease of the ratio of the natural transverse period for a two-dimensional wedge to that for a one-dimensional wedge with the ratio H/L is rapid for the higher than for the lower longitudinal modes. (ii) Comparing with the one-dimensional wedge, the natural transverse periods for the two-dimensional case in the complete wedge are lower, and they will increase as the coefficient of truncation, h/H increases. (iii) When the frequency of forced vibration is less than the natural transverse frequency for one-dimensional wedge, the amplification is less for a two-dimensional wedge than for a one-dimensional wedge. (iv) When the phase difference of ground motion at both ends of the dam equals π, the amplification for a two-dimensional wedge is less than that for a one-dimensional wedge, but when the phase difference equals nπ, (n > 1), the situation is reversed. (v) As the coefficient of truncation, h/H, increases, the displacement model partecipations decrease monotically. (vi) In general, the displacement caused by an earthquake is greater for a one-dimensional wedge than for a two-dimensional wedge when considering the seismic waves travelling, but the acceleration response of a two-dimensional wedge with long length of dam to travelling seismic waves with long dominant period is greater than that of a one-dimensional wedge. When the length of the dam is short enough, the response of a two-dimensional wedge without considering the influence of travelling seismic waves always gives the greatest value. 相似文献
6.
Leszek Czechowski 《Acta Geophysica》2006,54(3):280-302
A parameterized theory of convection is developed for 6 medium-size icy satellites (MIS) of Saturn. It is an extension of
the research concerning the Mimas-Enceladus paradox. Two parameterizations of dimensionless temperature are used in the model
and a new constrain for tidal heating is included. It is found that the basic results of the model are independent of particulars
of the parameterizations. The new constrain considerably reduces the space of possible values of the material parameter of
satellites but the two basic conclusions are unchanged, i.e.: (a) the thermal state of the considered MIS can be explained
in the frame of the uniform model that includes radiogenic and tidal heating; (b) the theory indicates that endogenic activity
of some MIS was (or is) a result of a specific ‘excited’, high temperature state of a given satellite. The theory could be
also used for estimation of tidal heating. 相似文献
7.
Remediation of subsurface contamination requires an understanding of the contaminant (history, source location, plume extent and concentration, etc.), and, knowledge of the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) that governs groundwater flow and solute transport. Many methods exist for characterizing K heterogeneity, but most if not all methods require the collection of a large number of small‐scale data and its interpolation. In this study, we conduct a hydraulic tomography survey at a highly heterogeneous glaciofluvial deposit at the North Campus Research Site (NCRS) located at the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada to sequentially interpret four pumping tests using the steady‐state form of the Sequential Successive Linear Estimator (SSLE) ( Yeh and Liu 2000 ). The resulting three‐dimensional (3D) K distribution (or K‐tomogram) is compared against: ( 1 ) K distributions obtained through the inverse modeling of individual pumping tests using SSLE, and ( 2 ) effective hydraulic conductivity (Keff) estimates obtained by automatically calibrating a groundwater flow model while treating the medium to be homogeneous. Such a Keff is often used for designing remediation operations, and thus is used as the basis for comparison with the K‐tomogram. Our results clearly show that hydraulic tomography is superior to the inversions of single pumping tests or Keff estimates. This is particularly significant for contaminated sites where an accurate representation of the flow field is critical for simulating contaminant transport and injection of chemical and biological agents used for active remediation of contaminant source zones and plumes. 相似文献
8.
A two-dimensional lattice Boltzmann model (LBM) is presented for transient shallow water flows. The model is based on the shallow water equations coupled with the large eddy simulation model. In order to obtain accurate results efficiently, a multi-block lattice scheme is applied at the area where a local finer grid is needed for strong change in physical variables. The model is verified by applying to five cases with transient processes: (a) a tidal wave over steps; (b) a perturbation over a submerged hump; (c) partial dam break flow; (d) circular dam break flow; (e) interaction between a dam break surge and four square cylinders. The objectives of this study are to validate the two-dimensional LBM in transient flow simulation and provide the detailed transient processes in shallow water flows. 相似文献
9.
D. Prandle 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-2):29-49
Abstract The accuracy to which the vertical structure of tidal currents can be predicted is examined. Theoretical models for current structure are developed employing (a) a constant eddy viscosity E = ε and (b) an eddy viscosity varying linearly with height above the sea bed z; E(z)=βz. By requiring these models to satisfy the commonly accepted quadratic friction law, the condition ε>½k is deduced where k is the bed friction coefficient, W a representative velocity and D the depth. The sense of rotation of a current ellipse is shown to be related to the configuration of co-tidal charts. The vertical structure of the current ellipse is illustrated from the theoretical models and the sensitivity of this structure is examined for the following variables: (a) eddy viscosity ε or βz, (b) the bed friction parameter kW, (c) rotation of the prescribed pressure gradients and (d) tidal period. While reasonable agreement between observed and calculated current profiles may often be reported, precise agreement is shown to depend upon accurate specification of both eddy viscosity and the bed stress condition. 相似文献
10.
The study reports for the first time on the heavy metal contamination of the waters surrounding a shipwreck lying on the sea floor. Square wave anodic stripping voltammetry has been used for a survey of the total and dissolved Cd, Pb and Cu contents of the seawater at the site of the sinking of the Nicole M/V (Coastal Adriatic Sea, Italy). Results show that the hulk has a considerable impact as regards all three metals in the bottom water, especially for the particulate fraction concentrations, which increased by factors of ∼9 (Cd), ∼3 (Pb) and ∼5 (Cu). The contaminated plume extended downstream for about 2 miles. Much lower contamination was observed for dissolved bottom concentrations; nevertheless Pb (0.56 ± 0.03 nmol/L) is higher than the Italian legal limits established for 2015 and Cd (0.23 ± 0.03 nmol/L) is very close the limit of Cd will be exceeded if the hulk is not removed. 相似文献
11.
S. N. Kravchenko 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(2):177-190
Palaeomagnetic data are presented from the southern Volodarsk-Volynsky Massif (VVM) of the Korosten Pluton, the Ukrainian Shield. Laboratory experiments (AF and thermal demagnetization, IRM acquisition, thermal separation), field tests (consistency and secular variation methods) and optical observations indicate that single domain and nearly single domain magnetite is the dominant carrier of a primary TRM in the anorthosites. Palaeomagnetic poles from the three sampling sites (Golovino and Turchinka quarries) are indistinguishable at the 95% confidence level and have been combined to yield a mean pole at Plat = 30 °N, Plon = 178 °E, a95 = 3.4 °.In the large slow cooling Korosten Pluton the U-Pb zircon/baddeleyite (Uzb) technique gives an age for the anorthosites, which are not equivalent to the time of magnetic blocking. Based on integrated analysis of geochronologic information and blocking-temperature data for magnetic minerals proposed by Briden et al. (1993), a first attempt has been undertaken to estimate the palaeomagnetic pole age from the Mesoproterozoic anorthosites. The Korosten Pluton has cooled from 850 °C (the closure temperature of U-Pb systematics in zircon/baddeleyite) to 350 °C (the closure temperature of K-Ar systematics in biotite) during 150 Ma after the emplacement of the anorthosites. Assuming a uniform cooling of the intrusion yields a rate of 3.3 °C/Ma. The cooling rate for the granites is 3.1 °C/Ma. The mafic and acid rocks have an average rate of 3.2 °C/Ma. Using the cooling gradient for the VVM (3.2 °C/Ma) and the mean natural blocking temperature of magnetite (520 °C) can be determined a remanence age. The estimate for TRM acquisition is 1656 ± 10.0 Ma.The magnetic pole for the VVM is in good agreement with the mean pole from the Baltic quartz porphyry dykes with an age of 1630 – 1648 Ma. The VVM pole is best dated and requires a revision of the latest paleogeographic reconstructions for the Fennoscandian and Ukrainian Shields at 1770 and 1650 Ma. (Pesonen et al., 2003). 相似文献
12.
An effective procedure is summarized without derivation for estimating the maximum response of a class of torsionally-coupled, multi-storey buildings due to earthquake ground motion characterized by response spectra. The analysis procedure is shown to be efficient and to provide insight into torsional coupling effects because the maximum response of such a torsionally-coupled, N-storey building in its njth mode of vibration is determined exactly by analysing (i) the response in the jth vibration mode (j = 1,2, N) of the corresponding torsionally-uncoupled, N-storey system; and (ii) the response in the nth vibration mode (n = 1, 2 for a one-way symmetric plan) of an associated torsionally-coupled, one-storey system. It is also demonstrated that an earlier, simpler approach in which the total (considering all vibration modes) response of the building is determined from the total response of the two simpler systems is strictly valid only under restrictive conditions, which are identified, but the simpler approach leads to results that are accurate to a useful degree. 相似文献
13.
SHRIMP zircon U-Pb dating from K-bentonite in the top of Ordovician of Wangjiawan Section,Yichang, Hubei,China 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
The Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the base of the Hirnantian Stage (the latest stage of the Ordovician System) is defined at a point 0.39m below the base of the Kuanyinchiao Bed in the Wangjiawan North Section, which is the upper most "golden spike" of the Ordovician. However, this "golden spike" is lack of reliable geochronology data. This article gives a sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMPII) zircon U-Pb dating for a K-bentonite sample from the Kuany-inchiao Bed in the Wangjiawan North Section. The age of the K-bentonite sample is 443.2±1.6 Ma, that is to say, the isotopic age of the uppermost of Hirnantian Stage, the point of Ordovician-Silurian boundary, should be near to, but slightly younger than 443.2±1.6 Ma. This age is identical to the Ordovi-cian-Silurian boundary age 443.7±1.5 Ma as declared by International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS). So, this research provides some good geochronlogical data for the Hirnantian Stage and the Ordovician-Silurian boundary as well as the global correlation. 相似文献
14.
Fiona Simpson 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,203(1):535-547
It has been hypothesised that seismic and electrical anisotropy at the base of the lithosphere are caused by strain-induced lattice-preferred orientation (LPO) of olivine [100] axes parallel to present-day plate motion. This would imply that seismic and electrical anisotropy observations can provide geodynamicists with fundamental information for characterising mantle flow. The qualitative agreement between the fast direction of SV-waves and direction of maximum electrical conductance modelled deeper than 150 km below the North Central craton of Australia appear to support a common alignment mechanism, and the observed, anisotropic electrical conductances can be generated by hydrogen diffusivity in a water-poor (<1000 ppm H/Si) olivine mantle. A quantitative test is proposed for the hypothesis that electrical anisotropy is generated by anisotropic hydrogen diffusion rates (D) in olivine. Electrical anisotropy factors are computed using random resistor network models assuming that D[100]≈20×D[010]≈40×D[001]. Electrical and seismic anisotropies calculated from olivine LPO angular distribution functions modelled for a range of shear strains under a simple shear deformation demonstrate that the intensity of olivine [100] alignments (and associated shear strains) that would be required to explain the electrical anisotropy in the mantle below central Australia are significantly greater than predicted by Rayleigh wave anisotropies. The poor agreement between the observed electrical anisotropies and the electrical anisotropies that would be predicted from the Rayleigh wave anisotropies indicates that either (i) electrical anisotropy in the upper mantle below central Australia is not generated by hydrogen diffusivity alone or (ii) the seismic anisotropy is underestimated. The orientation of the olivine [100] axes maxima is inferred to be ∼30° rotated relative to the direction of present-day absolute plate motion (APM) that is determined relative to the hotspot reference frame (HS2-NUVEL1). Both the APM direction that is determined relative to a reference frame defined by requiring no-net rotation of the lithosphere (NNR-NUVEL1) and GPS-derived plate motion vectors fit the geophysical observations of upper mantle anisotropy better. This may support the contention that hotspots are not stationary relative to the deep mantle. 相似文献
15.
Kinematic pile–soil interaction is investigated analytically through a Beam-on-Dynamic-Winkler-Foundation model. A cylindrical vertical pile in a homogeneous stratum, excited by vertically-propagating harmonic shear waves, is examined in the realm of linear viscoelastic material behaviour. New closed-form solutions for bending, displacements and rotations atop the pile, are derived for different boundary conditions at the head (free, fixed) and tip (free, hinged, fixed). Contrary to classical elastodynamic theory where pile response is governed by six dimensionless ratios, in the realm of the proposed Winkler analysis three dimensionless parameters suffice for describing pile–soil interaction: (1) a mechanical slenderness accounting for geometry and pile–soil stiffness contrast, (2) a dimensionless frequency (which is different from the classical elastodynamic parameter a0=ω d/Vs), and (3) soil material damping. With reference to kinematic pile bending, insight into the physics of the problem is gained through a rigorous superposition scheme involving an infinitely-long pile excited kinematically, and a pile of finite length excited by a concentrated force and a moment at the tip. It is shown that for long piles kinematic response is governed by a single dimensionless frequency parameter, leading to a unique master curve pertaining to all pile lengths and pile–soil stiffness ratios. 相似文献
16.
17.
Three choices of control variables for meteorological variational analysis (3DVAR or 4DVAR) are associated with horizontal
wind: (1) streamfunction and velocity potential, (2) eastward and northward velocity, and (3) vorticity and divergence. This
study shows theoretical and numerical differences of these variables in practical 3DVAR data assimilation through statistical
analysis and numerical experiments. This paper demonstrates that (a) streamfunction and velocity potential could potentially
introduce analysis errors; (b) A 3DVAR using velocity or vorticity and divergence provides a natural scale dependent influence
radius in addition to the covariance; (c) for a regional analysis, streamfunction and velocity potential are retrieved from
the background velocity field with Neumann boundary condition. Improper boundary conditions could result in further analysis
errors; (d) a variational data assimilation or an inverse problem using derivatives as control variables yields smoother analyses,
for example, a 3DVAR using vorticity and divergence as controls yields smoother wind analyses than those analyses obtained
by a 3DVAR using either velocity or streamfunction/velocity potential as control variables; and (e) statistical errors of
higher order derivatives of variables are more independent, e.g., the statistical correlation between U and V is smaller than the one between streamfunction and velocity potential, and thus the variables in higher derivatives are more
appropriate for a variational system when a cross-correlation between variables is neglected for efficiency or other reasons.
In summary, eastward and northward velocity, or vorticity and divergence are preferable control variables for variational
systems and the former is more attractive because of its numerical efficiency. Numerical experiments are presented using analytic
functions and real atmospheric observations. 相似文献
18.
Carolyn L. Gleason Marty D. Frisbee Laura K. Rademacher Donald W. Sada Zachary P. Meyers 《水文研究》2020,34(3):730-748
Despite its location in the rain shadow of the southern Sierra Nevada, the Panamint Range hosts a complex mountain groundwater system supporting numerous springs which have cultural, historical, and ecological importance. The sources of recharge that support these quintessential desert springs remain poorly quantified since very little hydrogeological research has been completed in the Panamint Range. Here we address the following questions: (i) what is the primary source of recharge that supports springs in the Panamint Range (snowmelt or rainfall), (ii) where is the recharge occurring (mountain-block, mountain-front, or mountain-system) and (iii) how much recharge occurs in the Panamint Range? We answer questions (i) and (ii) using stable isotopes measured in spring waters and precipitation, and question (iii) using a chloride mass-balance approach which is compared to a derivation of the Maxey–Eakin equation. Our dataset of the stable isotopic composition (δ18O and δ2H) of precipitation is short (1.5 years), but analyses on spring water samples indicate that high-elevation snowmelt is the dominant source of recharge for these springs, accounting for 57 (±9) to 79 (±12) percent of recharge. Recharge from rainfall is small but not insignificant. Mountain-block recharge is the dominant recharge mechanism. However, two basin springs emerging along the western mountain-front of the Panamint Range in Panamint Valley appear to be supported by mountain-front and mountain-system recharge, while Tule Spring (a basin spring emerging at the terminus of the bajada on the eastern side of the Panamint Range) appears to be supported by mountain-front recharge. Calculated recharge rates range from 19 mm year−1 (elevations < 1000 mrsl) to 388 mm year−1 (elevations > 1000 mrsl). The average annual recharge is approximately 91 mm year−1 (equivalent to 19.4 percent of total annual precipitation). We infer that the springs in the Panamint Range (and their associated ecosystems) are extremely vulnerable to changes in snow cover associated with climate change. They are heavily dependent on snowmelt recharge from a relatively thin annual snowpack. These findings have important implications for the vulnerability of desert springs worldwide. 相似文献
19.
In this study, the biosorption of Cd(II), Ni(II) and Pb(II) on Aspergillus niger in a batch system was investigated, and optimal condition determined by means of central composite design (CCD) under response surface methodology (RSM). Biomass inactivated by heat and pretreated by alkali solution was used in the determination of optimal conditions. The effect of initial solution pH, biomass dose and initial ion concentration on the removal efficiency of metal ions by A. niger was optimized using a design of experiment (DOE) method. Experimental results indicated that the optimal conditions for biosorption were 5.22 g/L, 89.93 mg/L and 6.01 for biomass dose, initial ion concentration and solution pH, respectively. Enhancement of metal biosorption capacity of the dried biomass by pretreatment with sodium hydroxide was observed. Maximal removal efficiencies for Cd(II), Ni(III) and Pb(II) ions of 98, 80 and 99% were achieved, respectively. The biosorption capacity of A. niger biomass obtained for Cd(II), Ni(II) and Pb(II) ions was 2.2, 1.6 and 4.7 mg/g, respectively. According to these observations the fungal biomass of A. niger is a suitable biosorbent for the removal of heavy metals from aqueous solutions. Multiple response optimization was applied to the experimental data to discover the optimal conditions for a set of responses, simultaneously, by using a desirability function. 相似文献
20.
IOANNIS NALBANTIS 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):269-284
Abstract A modelling scheme is developed for real-time flood forecasting. It is composed of (a) a rainfall forecasting model, (b) a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, and (c) a stochastic error model of the ARMA family for forecast error correction. Initialization of the rainfall-runoff model is based on running this model on a daily basis for a certain period prior to the flood onset while parameters of the error model are updated through the Recursive Least Squares algorithm. The scheme is suitable for the early stages of operation of flood forecasting systems in the presence of inadequate historical data. A validation framework is set up which simulates real-time flood forecasting conditions. Thus, the effects of the procedures for rainfall-runoff model initialization, forecast error correction and rainfall forecasting are assessed. Two well-known conceptual rainfall-runoff models (the Soil Moisture Accounting model of the US National Weather Service River Forecast Service—SMA-NWSRFS and TANK) together with data from a Greek basin are used for illustration purposes. 相似文献