共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 171 毫秒
1.
温州瓯江口浅滩地区越洋海啸影响评估计算 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
日本“3·11”地震海啸事件发生后,为了避免灾难重演,各滨海国家在加强海啸基础理论研究、改进海啸预警系统的同时,还应对沿海重大工程及重点保障目标进行地震海啸灾害风险排查及再评估工作;对在建的重大基础设施和社会经济功能区划应进行全面的地震海啸安全论证.在此背景下,该文首先概括总结了我国东南沿海的地震海啸风险及历史海啸事件时空分布,简要介绍了越洋海啸传播特征.海啸源选取基于潜在可能最大海啸,选取环太平洋地震带上的潜在地震海啸源,进行温州瓯江口地区越洋海啸影响评估计算.海啸数值计算模型采用美国康奈尔大学的COMCOT模型,利用该模型对2010年智利海啸、2011年日本海啸进行了近场、远场模拟验证,计算结果与观测数据吻合良好,模型可信.应用联合国教科文组织政府间海洋学委员会(UNESCO/IOC)太平洋海啸预警系统的海啸危险性等级标准,结合评估计算结果,对瓯江口浅滩地区海啸危险性进行等级划分,获得了该地区的海啸危险性初步评估结果.结果表明:在所选的10个潜在或历史海啸源产生的越洋海啸对研究区域的影响均小于100 cm,此规模的海啸不易对该地区造成灾害性影响.研究结果对于指导该地区的海啸灾害风险评估及风险排查具有一定的参考价值. 相似文献
2.
本文基于有限断层模型和OKADA 位错模型计算海表变形场作为初始条件，利用MOST 海啸数值模型模拟分析了2010年智利和2011 年日本地震海啸在我国东南沿海地区的海啸传播特征，海啸波模拟结果与观测数据吻合较好。重点研究分析了沈家门港口海域的海啸波流特征及其诱导的涡旋结构。研究结果表明：尽管两次事件的海啸源位置及破裂特征完全不同，但海啸波流在我国东南沿岸的分布特征大致相似；另外相对于海啸波幅而言，港湾中海啸流具有更强的空间差异性，港口入口、岬角地形处和岛屿间水道中往往会有强流存在。尽管这两次越洋海啸均未能在我国东南沿海引发淹没情形，但通过数值计算发现局部均存在超过3 m/s 以上的强流，因此进行海啸预警及风险管理时应综合考虑海啸波流的影响。 相似文献
3.
根据渤海区域地质断层特征和历史地震活动规律,分析得出渤海内潜在最大震级上限为8.1级,并对该海啸源可能的两组震源机制分别进行了数值模拟。模拟结果显示：渤海局部区域海啸波幅最大可达 1.5 m,最大流速可达2.8~3.0 m/s,具备造成灾害损失的风险。在该海啸源情景下,渤海海盆内易激发长期的水位自由振荡,部分区域水位振荡可持续 20 h以上,振荡波幅的大小与海啸首波波幅相当或更大。基于快速傅里叶变换方法对海啸波进行频谱分析,部分长周期频谱成分满足区域固有共振特征。因此,渤海内一旦发生海啸,不仅要关注海啸首波可能造成的灾害性影响,还要密切关注海啸首波到达后,可能产生的长时间、长周期的海啸波共振以及往复式海啸流造成的影响。 相似文献
4.
越洋海啸的数值模拟及其对我国的影响分析 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
简要介绍了地震海啸产生的物理机制、海啸波在大洋中的传播特性以及海啸所具有的超强破坏力可能引发的巨大灾害;概述了全球地震海啸发生的频率和太平洋区域历史海啸的时空分布;整理分析了我国沿海发生海啸的频次和空间分布。针对越洋海啸传播的特点,采用基于波浪追逐原理和自适应网格加密技术的海啸数值模型对1960智利海啸进行了数值模拟,将模拟的结果与历史记录进行了对比,验证了模型的可靠性。通过对数值模拟结果的分析,初步讨论了我国沿海地区越洋海啸的危险性,并定量阐述了越洋海啸对我国各海区的影响。 相似文献
5.
2017年9月8日4时49分（UTC），墨西哥瓦哈卡州沿岸海域（15.21°N，93.64°W）发生Mw8.2级地震，震源深度30 km。强震在该海域引发海啸，海啸对震源附近数百千米范围内造成了严重影响。位于太平洋上的多个海啸监测网络捕捉到了海啸信号并详细记录了此次海啸的传播过程。本文选用了近场2个DART浮标和6个验潮站的水位数据，通过潮汐调和分析和滤波分离出海啸信号，对近场海啸特征值进行了统计分析，并采用小波变换分析方法进一步分析了海啸的波频特征。基于Okada弹性位错理论断层模型计算得到了强震引发的海底形变分布，并采用MOST海啸模式对本次海啸事件近场传播特征进行了模拟，模拟结果与观测吻合较好。最后，基于实测和模拟结果，详细分析了此次地震海啸的近场分布特征，发现除受海啸源的强度和几何分布特征影响外，近岸海啸波还主要受地形特征控制，在与特定地形相互作用后波幅产生放大效应，会进一步加剧海啸造成的灾害。 相似文献
6.
南海潜在海啸灾害的模拟 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
结合南海海域的地形条件、地质构造、地震学特征以及历史地震记录，在回顾总结国内外学者研究的基础上，分析了南海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域，并讨论了在我国南海沿岸发生海啸灾害的潜在可能性。采用目前在国际上广泛使用的COMCOT海啸模式，对马尼拉海沟的潜在地震引发的海啸进行了数值模拟计算，计算中包含了由地震参数到海面初始变形的转换、海啸的深水传播过程以及海啸的浅水传播过程。采用三重嵌套网格，外层网格对应于大范围的深水区域，使用球坐标系下的线性控制方程；第二层网格对应中等范围的较浅水区域，使用球坐标系下的非线性控制方程；第三层网格对应小范围的浅水区域，使用直角坐标系下的非线性控制方程。由模拟计算得到的海啸传时分布、近岸海面升降强度、四个特定点上海面高度随时间变化等的结果表明,我国南海沿岸遭受海啸袭击的可能性是存在的，应进一步对南海海啸进行监测、预警和研究。COMCOT模式性能良好，可用于对南海潜在地震海啸的进一步模拟研究。 相似文献
7.
2016年全球地震海啸监测预警与数值模拟研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
回顾了国家海洋环境预报中心(国家海洋局海啸预警中心)2016年全球地震海啸监测预警的总体状况, 并基于震源生成模型和海啸传播数值模型的计算结果详细介绍了几次主要海啸事件及其影响特性。2016年全年国家海洋环境预报中心总共对全球6.5级(中国近海5.5级)以上海底地震响应了45次,发布海啸信息81期, 没有发生对我国有明显影响的海啸。结合精细化的数值模拟结果和浮标监测数据,重点介绍了苏门达腊7.8级地震海啸、厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸、新西兰7.1级和7.8级地震海啸, 以及所罗门7.8级地震海啸的波动特征和传播规律, 模拟结果与实测海啸波符合较好。针对厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸事件, 本文比较分析了均匀断层模型和多源有限断层模型对模拟结果的影响; 针对新西兰7.1级地震海啸, 探讨了色散效应对海啸波在大水深、远距离传播过程的影响规律。 相似文献
8.
本文利用数值模拟技术重现了1707年宝永地震海啸的传播过程,定量分析了我国东海沿岸海啸时空分布特征。计算结果表明,地震发生2.5小时后海啸波传至东海陆架,震后6小时浙江沿海地区遭到海啸的袭击,沿岸最大海啸波高为0.8米。通过海啸波在东海大陆架传播时海底地形与波幅的关系,研究分析了东海陆架缓变地形下海啸放大效应,为及时判断沿海可能的海啸强度和受灾程度提供了便捷的估算方法。此外,本文还评估了南海海槽发生极端地震时,中国东海沿岸的海啸危险性,为东海区域针对日本南海海槽进行海啸预警和减灾评估提供定量科学的参考。 相似文献
9.
2015年9月16日22时54分（当地时间）智利中部近岸发生Mw8.3级地震,震源深度25 km。同时,强震的破裂区长200 km,宽100 km,随之产生了中等强度的越洋海啸。海啸影响了智利沿岸近700 km的区域,局部地区监测到近5 m的海啸波幅和超过13 m的海啸爬坡高度。太平洋区域的40多个海啸浮标及200多个近岸潮位观测站详细记录了此次海啸的越洋传播过程,为详细研究此次海啸近场及远场传播及演化规律提供了珍贵的数据。本文选择有限断层模型和自适应网格海啸数值模型建立了既可以兼顾越洋海啸的计算效率又可以实现近场海啸精细化模拟的高分辨率海啸模型。模拟对比分析了海啸的越洋传播特征,结果表明采用所建立的模型可以较好地再现远场及近场海啸特征,特别是对近场海啸的模拟结果非常理想。表明有限断层可以较好地约束近场、特别是局部区域的破裂特征,可为海啸预警提供更加精确的震源信息,结合高分辨率的海啸数值预报模式实现海啸传播特征的精细化预报。本文结合观测数据与数值模拟结果初步分析了海啸波的频散特征及其对模型结果的影响。同时对观测中典型的海啸波特征进行的简要的总结。谱分析结果表明海啸波的能量主要分布在10~50 min周期域内。这些波特征提取是现行海啸预警信息中未涉及,但又十分重要的预警参数。进一步对这些波动特征的详细研究将为海啸预警信息及预警产品的完善提供技术支撑。 相似文献
10.
1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸的数值模拟 总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19
建立了一个地震海啸数值模式,模式包含越洋海啸传播部分和近岸海啸变形部分,在越洋海啸传播部分中采用线性浅水方程,使用蛙跃格式求解,并且选择合适的空间步长与时间步长,使差分格式中产生的数值频散与包辛尼斯克方程中的物理频散一致,这样在不影响海啸数值计算精度的前提下,节省了计算机的机时与内存.在近岸海啸变形部分的计算中,考虑了非线性对流项与海底摩擦项.同时该模式采用了多重网格嵌套技术,提高了所关心地区的计算精度.利用这个地震海啸模式模拟了1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸,结果与观测记录较吻合.这个模型已用于我国沿海核电站可能最大地震海啸的数值计算. 相似文献
11.
渤海海域地震海啸灾害概率性风险评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
渤海作为我国地震活动性最为活跃的近海，其地震海啸风险不可忽视。本文应用概率性海啸风险评估方法对渤海周边区域的海啸风险进行评估。根据历史地震目录建立了渤海区域的震级-频率关系，基于蒙特卡洛算法随机生成了一套10万年的地震目录，最终通过对地震事件的海啸数值模拟及最大波幅的统计分析给出了环渤海区域典型重现期的最大波幅分布以及重点城市的海啸波幅曲线。评估结果表明，渤海地区海啸风险主要集中在渤海湾和莱州湾周边，波幅可达到1~3 m，辽东湾地区海啸风险较低。 相似文献
12.
Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province. 相似文献
13.
A study of tsunami events in the East （Japan） Sea using continuous Galerkin finite element model, aiming at reproducing tsunami waves generated by underwater earthquakes in 1983 and 1993 respectively has been performed focusing on the geographic extent of a topographic feature in the East （Japan） Sea. Numerical models can be the proper tools to study the combined effects of realistic topography. Subsequently, using the FEM based two-dimensional model we have simulated the smoothed and flattened topographic effects by removal of Yamato Rise and seamounts for the cases of tthe 1983 Central region earthquake tsunami and the 1993 southwestern Hokkaido earthquake tsunami. The results have shown that there will be higher tsunamis along the eastern coasts of Korea in general except some areas, like Sokcho with removal of topographic highs, thus providing complicated bottom topography of the East （Japan） Sea as effective tsunami energy scattering. 相似文献
14.
On September 16, 2015, an earthquake with magnitude of M_w 8.3 occurred 46 km offshore from Illapel, Chile,generating a 4.4-m local tsunami measured at Coquimbo. In this study, the characteristics of tsunami are presented by a combination of analysis of observations and numerical simulation based on sources of USGS and NOAA. The records of 16 DART buoys in deep water, ten tidal gauges along coasts of near-field, and ten coastal gauges in the far-field are studied by applying Fourier analyses. The numerical simulation based on nonlinear shallow water equations and nested grids is carried out to provide overall tsunami propagation scenarios, and the results match well with the observations in deep water and but not well in coasts closed to the epicenter. Due to the short distance to the epicenter and the shelf resonance of southern Peru and Chile, the maximum amplitude ranged from 0.1 m to 2 m, except for Coquimbo. In deep water, the maximum amplitude of buoys decayed from9.8 cm to 0.8 cm, suggesting a centimeter-scale Pacific-wide tsunami, while the governing period was 13–17 min and 32 min. Whereas in the far-field coastal region, the tsunami wave amplified to be around 0.2 m to 0.8 m,mostly as a result of run-up effect and resonance from coast reflection. Although the tsunami was relatively moderate in deep water, it still produced non-negligible tsunami hazards in local region and the coasts of farfield. 相似文献
15.
Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Mohammad Heidarzadeh Moharram D. Pirooz Nasser H. Zaker Ahmet C. Yalciner Mohammad Mokhtari Asad Esmaeily 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(8-9):774-786
Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524. 相似文献
16.
Bathing beaches are usually the first to suffer disasters when tsunamis occur, owing to their proximity to the sea. Several large seismic fault zones are located off the coast of China. The impact of each tsunami scenario on Chinese bathing beaches is different. In this study, numerical models of the worst tsunami scenarios associated with seismic fault zones were considered to assess the tsunami hazard of bathing beaches in China. Numerical results show that tsunami waves from the Pacific Ocean could affect the East China Sea coast through gaps between the Ryukyu Islands. The Zhejiang and Shanghai coasts would be threatened by a tsunami from Ryukyu Trench, and the coasts of Hainan and Guangdong provinces would be threatened by a tsunami from the Manila Trench. The tsunami hazard associated with the Philippine Trench scenario needs particular attention. Owing to China’s offshore topography, the sequential order of tsunami arrival times to coastal provinces in several tsunami scenarios is almost the same. According to the tsunami hazard analysis results, Yalongwan Beach and eight other bathing beaches are at the highest hazard level. A high-resolution numerical calculation model was established to analyze the tsunami physical characteristics for the high-risk bathing beaches. To explore mitigating effects of a tsunami disaster, this study simulated tsunami propagation with the addition of seawalls. The experimental results show that the tsunami prevention seawalls constructed in an appropriate shallow water location have some effect on reducing tsunami hazard. Seawalls separated by a certain distance work even better. The analysis results can provide a scientific reference for subsequent preventive measures such as facility construction and evacuation. 相似文献
17.
“3.11”日本地震海啸及南海和琉球群岛假想地震海啸对福建近海影响的数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
福建地处西北太平洋沿岸,在环太平洋地震带附近,是海啸灾害潜在风险区.＂3.11＂日本地震海啸,福建沿岸验潮站就监测到其海啸波.利用CTSU地震海啸数值模式,模拟了＂3.11＂日本地震海啸对福建近海的影响,模拟结果与实况较吻合.同时,利用该数值模式模拟分析了可能来自于琉球群岛和南海附近海域的地震海啸对福建近海的影响,分析表明,如果在琉球群岛海域（28.0°N,129.0°E）发生8.8级地震,引发的海啸波将在4.5 h左右抵达福建北部海岸,最大海啸波幅可达2 m;如果在马尼拉海沟附近海域（17.5°N,119.0°E）发生8.8级地震,引发的海啸波将在4 h左右抵达福建南部海岸,最大海啸波幅可达3 m,均会给福建沿海地区带来灾害性影响.为此,本文亦针对性提出了防范地震海啸的一些措施与建议,为福建省海洋防灾减灾提供参考. 相似文献