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1.
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2.
This study evaluates the patterns and effects of relative sea-level rise on the tidal circulation of the basin of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon using a process-based model that is solved on an unstructured mesh. To predict the changes in the lagoon tidal circulation in the year 2100, the model is forced by tides and a static sea level. The bathymetry and the basin geometry are updated in response to sea-level rise for three morphological response scenarios: no bed updating, barrier island rollover, and basin infilling. Model results indicate that sea-level rise (SLR) will change the baseline current velocity patterns inside the lagoon over the ~100-year study period, due to a strong reduction in the area of the intertidal basin. The basin infilling scenario is associated with the most important adjustments of the tidal circulation (i.e., increases in the flood velocities and delays in the ebb tide), together with an increase in the cumulative discharges of the tidal inlets. Under sea-level rise and in the basin infilling scenario, the salt marshes and tidal flats experience increases in the tidal range and current asymmetry. Basin infilling changes the sediment flushing capacity of the lagoon, leading to the attenuation of the flood dominance in the main inlet and the strengthening of the flood dominance in the two secondary inlets. The predictions resulting from these scenarios provide very useful information on the long-term evolution of similar coastal lagoons that experience varying degrees of SLR. This study highlights the need for research focusing on the quantification of the physical and socio-economic impacts of SLR on lagoon systems, thus enabling the development of effective adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

3.
van Maanen  Barend  Coco  Giovanni  Bryan  Karin R.  Friedrichs  Carl T. 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(11):1249-1262

Sea-level rise has a strong influence on tidal systems, and a major focus of climate change effect studies is to predict the future state of these environmental systems. Here, we used a model to simulate the morphological evolution of tidal embayments and to explore their response to a rising sea level. The model was first used to reproduce the formation of channels and intertidal flats under a stable mean water level in an idealised and initially unchannelled tidal basin. A gradual rise in sea level was imposed once a well-developed channel network had formed. Simulations were conducted with different sea-level rise rates and tidal ranges. Sea-level rise forced headward erosion of the tidal channels, driving a landward expansion of the channel network and channel development in the previously non-inundated part of the basin. Simultaneously, an increase in channel drainage width in the lower part of the basin occurred and a decrease in the overall fraction of the basin occupied by channels could be observed. Sea-level rise thus altered important characteristics of the tidal channel network. Some intertidal areas were maintained despite a rising sea level. However, the size, shape, and location of the intertidal areas changed. In addition, sea-level rise affected the exchange of sediment between the different morphological elements. A shift from exporting to importing sediment as well as a reinforcement of the existing sediment export was observed for the simulations performed here. Sediment erosion in the inlet and the offshore transport of sediment was enhanced, resulting in the expansion of the ebb-tidal delta. Our model results further emphasise that tidal embayments can exhibit contrasting responses to sea-level rise.

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4.
An established numerical tidal model has been used to investigate the impact of various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, as well as SLR in combination with large-scale tidal power plants on European shelf tidal dynamics. Even moderate and realistic levels of future SLR are shown to have significant impacts on the tidal dynamics of the area. These changes are further enhanced when SLR and tidal power plants are considered in combination, resulting in changes to tidal amplitudes, currents and associated tidal dissipation and bed shear stresses. Sea-level rise is the dominant influence on any far-field impacts, whereas tidal power plants are shown to have the prevailing influence over any changes close to the point of energy extraction. The spatial extent of the impacts of energy extraction is shown to be affected by the sea level when more than one tidal power plant in the Irish Sea was considered. Different ways to implement SLR in the model are also discussed and shown to be of great significance for the response of the tides.  相似文献   

5.
Modeling the morphodynamic response of tidal embayments to sea-level rise   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Sea-level rise has a strong influence on tidal systems, and a major focus of climate change effect studies is to predict the future state of these environmental systems. Here, we used a model to simulate the morphological evolution of tidal embayments and to explore their response to a rising sea level. The model was first used to reproduce the formation of channels and intertidal flats under a stable mean water level in an idealised and initially unchannelled tidal basin. A gradual rise in sea level was imposed once a well-developed channel network had formed. Simulations were conducted with different sea-level rise rates and tidal ranges. Sea-level rise forced headward erosion of the tidal channels, driving a landward expansion of the channel network and channel development in the previously non-inundated part of the basin. Simultaneously, an increase in channel drainage width in the lower part of the basin occurred and a decrease in the overall fraction of the basin occupied by channels could be observed. Sea-level rise thus altered important characteristics of the tidal channel network. Some intertidal areas were maintained despite a rising sea level. However, the size, shape, and location of the intertidal areas changed. In addition, sea-level rise affected the exchange of sediment between the different morphological elements. A shift from exporting to importing sediment as well as a reinforcement of the existing sediment export was observed for the simulations performed here. Sediment erosion in the inlet and the offshore transport of sediment was enhanced, resulting in the expansion of the ebb-tidal delta. Our model results further emphasise that tidal embayments can exhibit contrasting responses to sea-level rise.  相似文献   

6.
Intertidal shoals are pronounced morphological features found in many estuaries worldwide. Apart from maintaining an ecologically unique intertidal environment, shoals also protect adjacent dyke systems by attenuating waves. The fate of sandy shoals under anticipated sea level rise (SLR) scenarios is underexplored. The current research investigates the long-term morphodynamic evolution of estuarine sandy shoals under forcing by short fetch, locally generated wind-waves, tides, and SLR by means of a numerical, process-based model (Delft3D). The focus lies on a sheltered shoal complex in the Western Scheldt, the Netherlands. Starting from the initial, 1963 bathymetry, we model 50-year morphodynamic development with schematized wind-wave forcing. We analyze in detail the impact of locally generated wind-waves on shoal formation. Finally, we impose regional SLR of 1.10 m and 1.95 m for 100 years. Model results show that, on the spatial scale of intertidal flats, small, locally generated wind-waves lower and widen the shoals while the adjacent channels deepen. However, on the estuarine system scale, wind-waves do not lead to fundamentally different channel–shoal patterns and morphodynamic evolution trends. This suggests that channel–shoal formation is mainly due to tide residual sediment transports, with wind-waves playing a secondary role. SLR leads to a notable intertidal area loss, despite a continuous heightening of the shoals, implying that morphodynamic adaptation lags behind SLR. The inclusion of wind-waves does not fundamentally change the reaction of the estuarine shoal to SLR. Future research may focus on exploring the impact of including multiple sediment classes.  相似文献   

7.
Under natural conditions, barrier islands might grow vertically and migrate onshore under the influence of long‐term sea level rise. Sediment is transported onshore during storm‐induced overwash and inundation. However, on many Dutch Wadden Islands, dune openings are closed off by artificial sand‐drift dikes that prevent the influx of sediment during storms. It has been argued that creating openings in the dune row to allow regular flooding on barrier islands can have a positive effect on the sediment budget, but the dominant hydrodynamic processes and their influence on sediment transport during overwash and inundation are unknown. Here, we present an XBeach model study to investigate how sediment transport during overwash and inundation across the beach of a typical mesotidal Wadden Sea barrier island is influenced by wave, tide and storm surge conditions. Firstly, we validated the model XBeach with field data on waves and currents during island inundation. In general, the XBeach model performed well. Secondly, we studied the long‐term sediment transport across the barrier island. We distinguished six representative inundation classes, ranging from frequently occurring, low‐energy events to infrequent, high‐energy events, and simulated the hydrodynamics and sediment transport during these events. An analysis of the model simulations shows that larger storm events cause larger cross‐shore sediment transport, but the net sediment exchange during a storm levels off or even becomes smaller for the largest inundation classes because it is counteracted by larger mean water levels in the Wadden Sea that oppose or even reverse sediment transport during inundation. When taking into account the frequency of occurrence of storms we conclude that the cumulative effect of relatively mild storms on long‐term cross‐shore sediment transport is much larger than that of the large storm events. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Prevailing ideas and calculations of coastal response to sea level rise (SLR) are often based on the Bruun model (Bruun P., Sea‐level rise as a cause of shore erosion, Journal Waterways Harbors Division, ASCE 88 : 117–130, 1962) that predicts upward and landward transfer of an equilibrium profile during SLR through offshore sediment transport on the shoreface. The model is based on a number of assumptions of questionable validity as well as outdated concepts on how sediment is transported across the shoreface. This contribution takes a numerical modelling approach that is based on first‐order processes contributing to the movement of sediment across the shoreface. Using a wave transformation model that predicts hydrodynamic processes driving cross‐shore sediment transport and an energetics‐based model for the coupling between hydrodynamics and sediment transport, we show that cross‐shore sediment transport is mainly onshore directed at the boundary between the lower and the upper shoreface, in agreement with the model proposed by Davidson‐Arnott (Conceptual model of the effects of sea level rise on sandy coasts, Journal of Coastal Research 21 : 1166–1172, 2005). The transition from onshore to offshore directed transport is located well within the surf zone and with a rising sea level this transition point becomes displaced landward and upward. Tests also show that substrate slope is of fundamental importance to the manner in which beaches react to rising sea level. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Global mean sea level is a potentially sensitive indicator of climate change. Global warming will contribute to worldwide sea-level rise (SLR) from thermal expansion of ocean water, melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets. A number of studies, mostly using tide-gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, Bidston Observatory, England, have obtained rates of global SLR within the last 100 years that range between 0·3 and 3 mm yr?1, with most values concentrated between 1 and 2 mm yr?1. However, the reliability of these results has been questioned because of problems with data quality and physical processes that introduce a high level of spatial and temporal variability. Sources of uncertainty in the sea-level data include variations in winds, ocean currents, river runoff, vertical earth movements, and geographically uneven distribution of long-term records. Crustal motions introduce a major source of error. To a large extent, these can be filtered by employing palaeo-sea-level proxies, and geophysical modelling to remove glacio-isostatic changes. Ultimately, satellite geodesy will help resolve the inherent ambiguity between the land and ocean level changes recorded by tide gauges. Future sea level is expected to rise by ～ 1 m, with a ‘best-guess’ value of 48 cm by the year 2100. Such rates represent an acceleration of four to seven times over present rates. Local land subsidence could substantially increase the apparent SLR. For example, Louisiana is currently experiencing SLR trends nearly 10 times the global mean rate. These recently reduced SLR estimates are based on climate models that predict a zero to negative contribution to SLR from Antarctica. Most global climate models (GCMs) indicate an ice accumulation over Antarctica, because in a warmer world, precipitation will exceed ablation/snow-melt. However, the impacts of attritional processes, such as thinning of the ice shelves, have been downplayed according to some experts. Furthermore, not all climate models are in agreement. Opposite conclusions may be drawn from the results of other GCMs. In addition, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is potentially subject to dynamic and volcanic instabilities that are difficult to predict. Because of the great uncertainty in SLR projections, careful monitoring of future sea-level trends by upgraded tide-gauge networks and satellite geodesy will become essential. Finally, because of the high spatial variability in crustal subsidence rates, wave climates and tidal regimes, it will be the set of local conditions (especially the relative sea-level rise), rather than a single global mean sea-level trend, that will determine each locality's vulnerability to future SLR.  相似文献   

10.
This work deals with analysis of hydrographic observations and results of numerical simulations. The data base includes acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP) observations, continuous measurements on data stations and satellite data originating from the medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS) onboard the European Space Agency (ESA) satellite ENVISAT with a spatial resolution of 300 m. Numerical simulations use nested models with horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 km in the German Bight to 200 m in the East Frisian Wadden Sea coupled with a suspended matter transport model. Modern satellite observations have now a comparable horizontal resolution with high-resolution numerical model of the entire area of the East Frisian Wadden Sea allowing to describe and validate new and so far unknown patterns of sediment distribution. The two data sets are consistent and reveal an oscillatory behaviour of sediment pools to the north of the back-barrier basins and clear propagation patterns of tidally driven suspended particulate matter outflow into the North Sea. The good agreement between observations and simulations is convincing evidence that the model simulates the basic dynamics and sediment transport processes, which motivates its further use in hindcasting, as well as in the initial steps towards forecasting circulation and sediment dynamics in the coastal zone.  相似文献   

11.
The Wadden Sea consists of a series of tidal lagoons which are connected to the North Sea by tidal inlets. Boundaries of each lagoon are the mainland coast, the barrier islands on both sides of the tidal inlet, and the tidal watersheds behind the two barrier islands. Behind each Wadden Island there is a tidal watershed separating two adjacent tidal lagoons. The locations of the tidal watersheds in the Wadden Sea are not fixed. Especially after a human interference in one of the tidal lagoons, a tidal watershed can move and thereby influence the distribution of area between the lagoons. This appears to be important for the morphological development in not only the basin in which the interference takes place, but also in the adjacent basins. This paper describes theoretical analyses and numerical modelling aimed at improving the insights into the location of the tidal watersheds, their movements, and the impact of the movements of tidal watersheds on the morphological development of a multi-basin system like the Wadden Sea.  相似文献   

12.
Past and future evolution in the Thames Estuary   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
In order to manage estuaries effectively, it is important to be able to predict how they are likely to change in the future, both to natural and anthropogenic forcing. This paper looks at historical morphological development of the Thames Estuary, taking into account the effect of human intervention, and uses the ASMITA morphological model to predict the long-term evolution of the estuary into the future, assuming either historic rates of sea-level rise or accelerated sea-level rise. The historical sediment budget for the Thames Estuary was examined and source and sink terms, including fluvial sediment supply and historical dredging rates, were included in the ASMITA model. ASMITA predictions showed good overall agreement with the historical data, highlighting the benefits of detailed historical review and the inclusion of anthropogenic effects in the model. Future ASMITA predictions for the period 2000 to 2100 suggest that, under both historical and accelerated sea-level rise scenarios, the estuary will experience accretion, but, for the accelerated sea-level rise scenario, accretion will be at a slower rate than sea level rise. With accelerated sea-level rise, intertidal profiles were predicted to be up to 0.5 m lower with respect to high water.  相似文献   

13.
We present an idealized network model for storm surges in the Wadden Sea, specifically including a time-dependent wind forcing (wind speed and direction). This extends the classical work by H.A. Lorentz who only considered the equilibrium response to a steady wind forcing. The solutions obtained in the frequency domain for the linearized shallow-water equations in a channel are combined in an algebraic system for the network. The velocity scale that is used for the linearized friction coefficient is determined iteratively. The hindcast of the storm surge of 5 December 2013 produces credible time-varying results. The effects of storm and basin parameters on the peak surge elevation are the subject of a sensitivity analysis. The formulation in the frequency domain reveals which modes in the external forcing lead to the largest surge response at coastal stations. There appears to be a minimum storm duration, of about 3–4 h, that is required for a surge to attain its maximum elevation. The influence of the water levels at the North Sea inlets on the Wadden Sea surges decreases towards the shore. In contrast, the wind shearing generates its largest response near the shore, where the fetch length is at its maximum.  相似文献   

14.
Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

The runoff and sediment of large rivers usually come from different source areas, which make different contributions to the sediment flux into the sea. This has been studied with the example of the Yellow River in China, whose suspended sediment flux into the Bohai Sea accounts for 19.4% of the world total. The drainage basin of this river can be divided into four major water and sediment source areas. The sediment flux into the sea is found to be closely related to the water and sediment from the different source areas in the drainage basin and, accordingly, an empirical regression model has been established to express this relationship. According to this model, in each tonne (t) of sediment from the fine sediment producing area (FSA), 0.85 t (for yearly series) and 0.72 t (for event series) can be transported into the sea; in each tonne of sediment from the coarse sediment producing area (CSA), only 0.21 t (for yearly series) and 0.34 t (for event series) can be transported into the sea. Since the 1970s, the Yellow River's sediment flux into the sea has declined markedly and this reduction can be attributed to a great degree to the soil control measures in the fine sediment producing area. Coupling the models of this study to the previously established models for estimating the impacts of soil control measures on water and sediment balance in the Yellow River basin, a quantitative prediction may be made for the change of sediment flux into the sea that might result from climate change and human activities in the future.  相似文献   

16.
Sea level change is an important consequence of climate change due to its impact on society and ecosystems. Analyses of tide-gauge data have indicated that the global sea level has risen during the 20th century and several studies predict that the mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century, intensifying coastal hazards worldwide. In Portugal, the Ria de Aveiro is expected to be one of the regions most affected by sea level change.The main aim of this study is to evaluate the potential impacts of the mean sea level change on the hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of the Ria de Aveiro. With this purpose, local mean sea level change was projected for the period 2091-2100 relative to 1980-1999, for different Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These projections revealed an increase in the mean sea level between 0.28 m under scenario B1 and 0.42 m under scenario A2.The results obtained for sea level rise scenario A2 projection were used to force the morphodynamic model MORSYS2D, previously implemented for the Ria de Aveiro. The modelling results were compared with model forecasts for the present sea level. The residual sediment transport and its balance at the lagoon inlet were computed and analysed for both situations. While the residual sediment transport is generally seaward, sediments tend to deposit inside the inlet due to the weak sediment transport at its mouth. The direction of the residual flux will not change with the sea level rise, but sediment fluxes will intensify, and accretion inside the inlet will increase.The rise in mean sea level will also affect the lagoon hydrodynamics. The tidal prism at the lagoon mouth will increase by about 28% in spring tide. In the lower lagoon only a slight increase of the tidal asymmetry is predicted.  相似文献   

17.

In order to simulate the dynamics of fine sediments in short tidal basins, like the Wadden Sea basins, a 1D cross-sectional averaged model is constructed to simulate tidal flow, depth-limited waves, and fine sediment transport. The key for this 1D model lies in the definition of the geometry (width and depth as function of the streamwise coordinate). The geometry is computed by implementing the water level and flow data, from a 2D flow simulation, and the hypsometric curve in the continuity equation. By means of a finite volume method, the shallow-water equations and sediment transport equations are solved. The bed shear stress consists of the sum of shear stresses by waves and flow, in which the waves are computed with a depth-limited growth equation for wave height and wave frequency. A new formulation for erosion of fines from a sandy bed is proposed in the transport equation for fine sediment. It is shown by comparison with 2D simulations and field measurements that a 1D schematization gives a proper representation of the dynamics in short tidal basins.

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18.
In coastal areas, sea level rise (SLR) and changing wave climates are expected to be the main oceanic drivers of shoreline adjustments. These drivers have been shown to vary on a wide spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. Nonetheless, a general rule about how this variability impacts global shorelines remains to be articulated. Here, we discuss the impacts of wave climate changes and SLR on the evolution of a barrier spit–inlet system over the last 250 years. The distal end of the Cap Ferret barrier spit, SW France, has undergone large-scale oscillations that were well correlated with variations of the decadal average of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The local wave climate hindcast supports that increased alongshore wave energy fluxes associated with the positive phase of the NAO were responsible for the updrift retreat of the spit. By opposition, the spit has elongated downdrift when waves were less energetic and more shore normal, as during the negative phase of the NAO. In addition, lower rates of SLR appeared to be necessary for the spit to develop, as higher rates of SLR very likely forced the adjacent inlet to enlarge, at the expense of the spit. These results should help to predict and detect coastal adjustments driven by climate change and by climate variability. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Here, we address the sediment dynamics in the Black Sea based on analysis of remote sensing data from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and numerical simulations with Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean model. Boundary conditions consist of realistic meteorological forcing, including significant wave height generated by wave prediction model. A number of sensitivity runs was analysed with the aim to find the most suitable parameters governing sediment fluxes. The comparison between numerical simulations and remote sensing data gives credibility to the quality of simulations. The combined effect of wind waves and currents in the bed layer controls the sediment resuspension that appears to be the major basin-wide source of sediment. Sensitivity experiments included or excluded different forcing terms, e.g. sediment flux from rivers enable to determine the spatial extensions of different point sources. It is concluded that wind-wave forcing is manifested in the sediment dynamics through episodic high energy events contributing to the increase of horizontal sediment fluxes over the northwestern shelf. Both satellite images and numerical model simulations demonstrated that the penetration of suspended sediment into the basin interior was governed by the dynamics of coastal and open-ocean eddies. While fine sediment at sea surface could cross the continental slope propagating into the open ocean, coarser fractions follow the bottom and their penetration into the open ocean is limited. The conclusion is thus that the deposition patterns correlate with the specific shape of Black Sea topography, and the largest depositions are observed in the area of continental slope.  相似文献   

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