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1.
统计确定临界降雨量是滑坡早期预警常用的方法。东南沿海地区台风暴雨不同于一般降雨, 常引发滑坡灾害, 从而威胁沿海地区人民生命财产安全。为了建立台风和非台风降雨型滑坡临界降雨量预测模型, 以浙江丽水市为例, 基于2010-2020年台风暴雨、非台风降雨诱发滑坡与降雨量的统计, 构建了丽水市滑坡发生概率和有效降雨量的关系, 提出了多时长临界降雨量预测模型, 并开展了台风和非台风降雨型滑坡预测模型结果的对比分析。结果表明, 非台风降雨与台风暴雨之间雨型和雨量差异是导致丽水市内2类降雨滑坡预测模型差异的主要原因; 以多时长预测模型确定的临界雨量值法和有效降雨天数更加符合丽水市降雨型滑坡的预测预报, 且预测精度相比于传统相关性分析法更高。研究成果对于开发区域降雨型滑坡预测模型具有理论意义, 对我国东南沿海地区汛期滑坡早期预警具有重要实际意义。   相似文献   

2.
Rainfall erosivity in Tibet from 2000 to 2OlO was estimated based on simplified erosion prediction model using daily rainfall data derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Misssion （TRMM） 3B42 rainfall measurement algorithm. Semi- monthly erosive rainfall and rainfall erosivity were validated using weather station data. The spatial distribution of annual rainfall erosivity as well as its seasonal and annual variation in Tibet was also examined. Results showed that TRMM 3B42 data could serve as an alternative data source to estimate rainfall erosivity in the area where only data from sparsely distributed weather stations are available. The spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in Tibet generally resembles the distribution of multi-year average of annual rainfall. Annual rainfall erosivity in Tibet decreased from the southeast to the northwest. The concentration degree of rainfall erosivity shows an increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. High rainfall erosivity accompanies low rainfall erosivity concentration degree and vice versa. Rainfall erosivity increased in the middle and western Tibet and decreased in the southeastern Tibet during the 11 years of this study.  相似文献   

3.
Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  
A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow.The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase,and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows.Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin,Yunnan Province,in southwestern China,demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfa...  相似文献   

4.
天气图、卫星云图和V-3θ图结合分析不仅能清晰反映锋面天气过程,而且能够提高降水落点、降水强度及降水结束时间的预测效果.中尺度云团所表征的次涡旋和垂直顺滚流并存的区域为强降水区域.  相似文献   

5.
Rainfall induced shallow landslides are known to be extremely dangerous since the sliding mass can propagate quickly and travel far from the source. Although the sliding mechanism in sloping ground is simple to understand, the problem may be complicated by unsaturated transient water flow. The flow behavior of rainwater in unsaturated sloping ground and the consequent factor of safety must be clearly understood to assess slope stability under rainfall conditions. A series of laboratory experiments was conducted to examine the critical hydrological states so that assessment of slope stability under rainfall condition can be performed. Based on the test results, a unique relationship between critical hydrological states, rainfall intensity, and soil properties was formulated. Sequential stability analysis provided insights into the stability of slopes subjected to variations in soil properties, slope angles and rainfall intensities, and the consequent variation in the depth of the failure plane, vital in landslide risk assessment, was determined through this analysis.The variation of rainfall intensity was found to strongly affect the depth of the failure plane in cohesionless sloping ground. Furthermore, the influence of rainfall intensity on the depth of the failure plane may be alleviated by a small magnitude of cohesive strength. The results of this study will reinforce knowledge of landslide behavior and help to improve mitigation measures in susceptible areas.  相似文献   

6.
在多级滑坡的渐进破坏过程中, 滑带不同部位的屈服程度和破坏模式不同, 强度参数也不同。在强降雨条件下, 坡表产生的张拉裂缝充水, 会产生静水压力。当前广泛应用的传递系数法对滑带不同位置取同一强度参数, 也尚未考虑到静水压力作用。为此提出了一种考虑静水压力作用和滑带不同部位强度参数差异的改进传递系数法, 对降雨引起的西安市柳西村南部的牛角沟滑坡进行了计算。结果表明: 与不考虑静水压力和滑带不同部位强度参数差异的计算方法比, 改进传递系数法计算的抗滑力相对较小, 剩余下滑力计算结果相对较大, 各级滑坡稳定性系数分别减小了约33.26%、17.92%、24.95和16.94%;而改进前的稳定性系数偏高, 可能会导致支挡工程的安全储备不足。本研究提出的改进传递系数法可为多级滑坡处置提供更安全的参考。   相似文献   

7.
Changing rainfall and its impact on landslides in Sri Lanka   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Introduction Landslides, floods and droughts are the most destructive type of natural disasters that often occur in Sri Lanka causing severe negative effects on livelihood of the people and the national economy. Landslides and floods with their rapid onsetting feature are the natural hazards that cause significant number of deaths, severe damages of properties and infrastructure, disruption of livelihood, disruption of services. Essential relief works, setback to livelihood and need of repair…  相似文献   

8.
Rainfall is an important factor to trigger the debris flow.Numerical simulation on the responses of slopes and the initiation of debris flow under rainfall was processed by using the software FLAC2D based on the soil parameters in Weijia Gully,Beichuan County,Sichuan Province,China.The effects of the slope angle,rainfall intensity,soil parameters on the developments of the stress and pore pressure and deformation of the slope were studied.It indicates that large displacements of the slope are mainly located near the slope toe.With the increase of the rainfall intensity the stability of the slope decreases and so the debris-flow is easy to occur.  相似文献   

9.
Shallow slope failures induced by rainfall infiltration occur frequently, and the relevant triggering mechanisms have been widely studied.Rainfall-induced landslides are widely recognized to be caused by increases in soil weight, seepage force and pore water pressure or decreases in soil mechanical properties. However, even when all these factors are considered, some landslides still cannot be explained well. The increased pore water pressure in a slope reduces the effective stress of the soil and may trigger slope failure. Similarly, the pore gas pressure in a slope also reduces the effective stress of the soil but has been neglected in previous studies. As the viscosity of air is nearly negligible when compared with that of water, the pore gas pressure spreads faster, and its influence is wider, which is harmful for the stability of the slope. In this paper, the effects of pore gas pressure are considered in a shallow slope stability analysis, and a self-designed experiment is conducted to validate the force transfer mechanism.Numerical simulation results show that the pore gas pressure in the slope increases sharply at different locations under heavy rainfall conditions and that the pore gas pressure causes a rapid decrease in the slope safety factor. Laboratory experimental results show that the pore gas pressure throughout the whole unsaturated zone has the same value, which indicates that the gas pressure could spread quickly to the whole sample.  相似文献   

10.
含优势渗流层边坡在降雨入渗的作用下其渗流场往往具有较高的不确定性,这给边坡的稳定性评价带来困难,通常采用概率的方法解决此类问题。针对含优势渗流层边坡降雨入渗下的可靠度问题,通过将应力分析中的点估计-有限元法引入到边坡渗流-稳定性分析,提出了考虑优势渗流层渗透特性不确定性的渗流概率分析和边坡可靠度分析方法;其次以广西某含碎石夹层土坡为例,分析了降雨入渗下碎石夹层的优势渗流效应及渗流概率,并基于此开展了该边坡降雨入渗下的可靠度分析。结果表明:①含优势渗流层边坡雨水沿优势渗流层渗入坡体内部的深度显著高于沿坡面渗入的深度;优势渗流层渗透特性的不确定性对渗流结果的影响较大,使得边坡稳定性分析具有较强的不确定性;②随着雨水入渗持时的增加,含优势渗流层边坡不同滑动面的失效概率总体呈现增加趋势,最危险滑动面的位置不断向边坡下部演化;依托工程滑动面位置的预测结果与工程实际吻合;③提出的概率分析方法适用于分析含优势渗流层边坡降雨入渗影响下的稳定性问题,而且具有计算量小的优势,可作这类边坡可靠度分析的一种新方法。   相似文献   

11.
In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980- 1993( 1May - 31 Dec. ) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP ( CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.  相似文献   

12.
Among the triggering factors of post-earthquake bedrock landslides,rainfall plays an important role.However,with slope variation,the mechanism of its effects on the failure of rock landslides is not clear.Here,from the viewpoint of fracture mechanics,and based on post-earthquake conditions,the mechanisms of crack propagation,water infiltration and development of the sliding surface were investigated.Then,according to the upper boundary theorem,the effects of water infiltrated into fractures on the stability of rock slopes were analyzed quantitatively.Finally,an example is presented to verify the theory.The results show that the propagation and coalescence of cracks and the lubrication of incipient sliding surfaces are the main causes of the failure of post-earthquake rock landslides in response to rainfall.  相似文献   

13.
This case study is about a landslide that occurred after 4 days of heavy rainfall,in the morning of June 29,2012,in Cengong County,Guizhou Province of China,geographical coordinated 108°20′-109°03′E,27°09′-27°32′N,with an estimated volume of 3.3×106 m3.To fully investigate the landslide process and formation mechanism,detailed geotechnical and geophysical investigations were performed including borehole drilling,sampling,and laboratory tests coupled with monitoring of displacement.Also,a combined seepage-slope stability modeling was performed to study the behavior of the landslide.After the heavy rainfall event,the sliding process started in this area.The landslide development can be divided into different parts.The man-made fill area,spatially distributed in the south side of the landslide area with low elevations,slid first along the interface between the slope debris and the strongly weathered bedrock roughly in the EW direction.Consequently,due to severe lateral shear disturbance,the slope in the main sliding zone slid next towards the SW direction,along the sliding surface developed within the strongly weathered calcareous shale formation located at a depth of 25-35 m.This means it was a rainfall triggered deep-seated landslide.Finally,retrogressive failure of a number of upstream blocks occurred,which moved in more than one direction.The initial failure of the man-made fill area was the‘engine’of the whole instability framework.This artificial material with low permeability,piled up in the accumulation area of surface and sub-surface and destroyed the drainage capacity of the groundwater.The numerical modeling results agreed with the analysis results obtained from the laboratory and field investigations.A conceptual model is given to illustrate the formation mechanism and development process of the landslide.  相似文献   

14.
以湖南省澧源镇为例,利用证据权模型和灰色关联度模型分别计算了坡度、地层岩性、斜坡形态、土地利用类型、人类工程活动5个因子二级状态证据权值和一级因子权重;综合2种模型确定全区滑坡易发性指数后,完成基于斜坡单元的全区滑坡易发性区划;根据研究区岩土体类型（碎屑岩类、碳酸盐岩夹碎屑岩类、碳酸盐岩类和松散岩土体类）分组研究不同滑坡发生概率下的有效降雨阈值曲线（I-D曲线）。研究降雨时间为3日、有效强度为22.4 mm/d的降雨工况下各岩土体类型滑坡发生的时间概率。综合时间概率和易发性结果得到澧源镇基于有效降雨阈值的滑坡灾害危险性区划图。研究结果表明:澧源镇滑坡灾害高和极高易发区占研究区总面积的25%,主要沿澧河分布;极高危险区和高危险区占研究区总面积的14%,主要分布在澧河北侧。   相似文献   

15.
Due to the special condition of provenance and disaster environment after "5·12" Earthquake, the probability and conditions of the occurrence of gully debris flow change greatly after the event, which make it difficult to prevent disaster effectively. In this study the hydrological model of ground water table in loose sediment is established. According to infinite slope theory, the safety factor of deposits is defined as the ratio of resistance force to driving force. The starting condition of post-earthquake gully debris flow is clearly studied by analyzing the effects of rainfall intensity, seismic strength, slope gradient and mechanical properties on the balance of accumulation body. Then the formulas of rainfall and aftershock threshold for starting of gully debris flow are proposed, and an example is given to illustrate the effect of rainfall, aftershocks and their coupling action on a debris flow. The result shows the critical rainfall intensity decreases as the lateral seismic acceleration and channel gradient increases, while the critical intensity linearly increases as the friction angle increases.  相似文献   

16.
库岸滑坡体分布广泛,在库水位升降和降雨条件下极易失稳。三板溪水电站东岭信滑坡堆积体总方量2 000×104 m3,最大厚度150 m,2006年水电站蓄水后滑坡体开始出现大变形,每年雨季加剧。首先经野外地质勘察和十余年监测数据整理,探明了地质条件和变形规律;其次使用SEEP/W模块对不同库水位升降速率、2019年库水位结合实测降雨条件下的饱和-非饱和流进行模拟,并采用SLOPE/W分别计算不同时刻的稳定系数。分析认为东岭信为超深层滑坡,其变形过程深受库水位升降和降雨影响;滑坡体具有明显的滞水特征,渗流过程复杂;在库水位上升过程中稳定系数不断下降,而在库水位消落过程中稳定性逐渐增强;在库水位上升和强降雨量共同作用下稳定性下降很快,汛后10 d左右达到最低值,此时的稳定性最差。本研究可用于指导库水位升降和降雨条件下大型滑坡体稳定性评价。   相似文献   

17.
A colluvial landslide in a debris flow valley is a typical phenomena and is easily influenced by rainfall. The direct destructiveness of this kind of landslide is small, however, if failure occurs the resulting blocking of the channel may lead to a series of magnified secondary hazards. For this reason it is important to investigate the potential response of this type of landslide to rainfall. In the present paper, the Goulingping landslide, one of the colluvial landslides in the Goulingping valley in the middle of the Bailong River catchment in Gansu Province, China, was chosen for the study. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), together with traditional monitoring methods, were used to monitor changes in water content and the deformation of the landslide caused by rainfall. ERT was used to detect changes in soil water content induced by rainfall. The most significant findings were as follows:(1) the water content in the centralupper part (0~41 m) of the landslide was greater than in the central-front part (41~84 m) and (2) there was a relatively high resistivity zone at depth within the sliding zone. The deformation characteristics at the surface of the landslide were monitored by TLS and the results revealed that rainstorms caused three types of deformation and failure: (1) gully erosion at the slope surface; (2) shallow sliding failure; (3) and slope foot erosion. Subsequent monitoring of continuous changes in pore-water pressure, soil pressure and displacement (using traditional methods) indicated that long duration light rainfall (average 2.22 mm/d) caused the entire landslide to enter a state of creeping deformation at the beginning of the rainy season. Shear-induced dilation occurred for the fast sliding (30.09 mm/d) during the critical failure sub-phase (EF). Pore-water pressure in the sliding zone was affected by rainfall. In addition, the sliding L1 parts of the landslide exerted a discontinuous pressure on the L2 part. Through the monitoring and analysis, we conclude that this kind of landslide may have large deformation at the beginning and the late of the rainy season.  相似文献   

18.
在原η坐标模式基础上,利用1995年8月23日和1998年4月28日四川西部两次强降水过程为例,通过改变水平分辨率和具有不同分辨率的地形资料,以及固定边界、单向影响嵌套边界,进行了一些数值试验。结果表明:(1)较低水平分辨率的η模式,采用较高分辨率的地形资料不一定能改善预报结果;(2)具有较高水平分辨率,并引入较高分辨率的地形资料,以及单向嵌套侧边界的η模式,对预报结果有较明显的改进  相似文献   

19.
This study evaluates the simulation of summer rainfall changes in the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) based on the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The historical runs of 20 CMIP5 coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs) are analyzed. The Multi-Model ensemble (MME) of the CMIP5 models well reproduces the general feature of NIO summer rainfall. For a short period 1979–2005, 14 out of 20 models show an increased trend in the mean rainfall and a similar spatial distribution to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations in MME. The increasing of the convergence in the equatorial IO results in the increase of rainfall significantly. The equatorial rainfall trend patterns seem modulated by the SST warming in the tropical Indian Ocean, which confirm the mechanism of ‘warmer-get-wetter’ theory. For a long period 1950–2005, the trend of monsoon rainfall over India shows a decrease over the most parts of the India except an increase over the south corn er of the Indian Peninsula, due to a weakened summer monsoon circulation. The pattern is well simulated in half of the CMIP5 models. The rainfall over the north India is different for a short period, in which rainfall increases in 1979–2005, implying possible decadal variation in the NIO summer climate.  相似文献   

20.
《山地科学学报》2020,17(8):1860-1873
At present,most researches on the critical rainfall threshold of debris flow initiation use a linear model obtained through regression.With relatively weak fault tolerance,this method not only ignores nonlinear effects but also is susceptible to singular noise samples,which makes it difficult to characterize the true quantization relationship of the rainfall threshold.Besides,the early warning threshold determined by statistical parameters is susceptible to negative samples(samples where no debris flow has occurred),which leads to uncertainty in the reliability of the early warning results by the regression curve.To overcome the above limitations,this study develops a data-driven multiobjective evolutionary optimization method that combines an artificial neural network(ANN) and a multiobjective evolutionary optimization implemented by particle swarm optimization(PSO).Firstly,the Pareto optimality method is used to represent the nonlinear and conflicting critical thresholds for the rainfall intensity I and the rainfall duration D.An ANN is used to construct a dual-target(dual-task) predictive surrogate model,and then a PSO-based multiobjective evolutionary optimization algorithm is applied to train the ANN and stochastically search the trained ANN for obtaining the Pareto front of the I-D surrogate prediction model,which is intended to overcome the limitations of the existing linear regression-based threshold methods.Finally,a double early warning curve model that can effectively control the false alarm rate and negative alarm rate of hazard warnings are proposed based on the decision space and target space maps.This study provides theoretical guidance for the early warning and forecasting of debris flows and has strong applicability.  相似文献   

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