共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Eric F. Lambin Sarah Ann Lise D’haen Ole Mertz Jonas Østergaard Nielsen Kjeld Rasmussen 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2014,114(1):76-83
In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization. 相似文献
2.
Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios:An analysis based on eco-geographical regions简 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China＇s natural ecosystems was em- ployed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China＇s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulner- ability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in eco- system vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by cli- mate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition. 相似文献
3.
Douglas K. Bardsley Emily Moskwa Delene Weber Guy M. Robinson Nicolette Waschl Annette M. Bardsley 《社会与自然资源》2018,31(4):424-441
Striking a balance between the management of environmental risks and values is a challenge for decision-makers. If people perceive that environmental risks are increasing they may be willing to discount local values to manage those risks, so the identification of thresholds in risk perception in relation to specific behaviors could help to avoid policy failures. The complex relationships between perceptions of climate change and bushfire risks, environmental values and support for actions to mitigate local risks are presented for peri-urban regions in South Australia. The results of a household survey (N=988) suggest that a threshold of risk perception in relation to climate change and bushfire management has not been exceeded and people are broadly supportive of balanced management interventions. A minority of people still do not perceive that climate change is increasing bushfire risk, and are supportive of risk mitigation interventions even at the expense of local biodiversity. However, a larger group believe that climate change is a driver of bushfire risk, yet are still more likely to prioritize ecological values and are unwilling to discount those values for risk mitigation. Targeted communication could assist different groups to respond to gaps in knowledge and action to facilitate effective, differentiated interventions within forested landscapes on the margins of urban areas. 相似文献
4.
Susan L. Cutter 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2020,74(3):200-208
ABSTRACT The nexus of natural hazards, climate change, and community resilience poses both conceptual and methodological challenges. One key consideration is the underlying notion of dynamic change or transformation in the systems that affect community resilience—social systems, natural systems, technological systems—and the degree to which the interdependencies influence who is resilient, to what, where, and to whom. The article examines community resilience from the broad perspective of affluent societies and illustrates the considerable variability in both the temporal and spatial nature of community resilience to natural hazards in the short term, and climate changes in the longer term, especially in more affluent societies. The author finds that, given the rapidity of environmental, social, economic, political, technological, and cultural changes, present circumstances and remedies may not be adequate predictors or precursors of future conditions. She concludes that the challenges associated with community resilience, natural hazards, and climate change require transformational thinking and action if achievements are to be made in terms of significant disaster risk reduction and any semblance of a sustainable future when extreme weather events will be the norm, not the exception. 相似文献
5.
沙漠化与气候变化互馈机制研究进展 总被引：6，自引：5，他引：1
沙漠化与气候变化是当前全世界面临的两大热点问题,尤其是二者之间的互馈机制是研究的热点和难点。气候条件的恶化如持续干旱等可以引起土地的沙漠化,而沙漠化又可以通过生物地球物理互馈机制、增加沙尘气溶胶和温室气体等途径反作用于气候变化,并可能在局地形成正反馈,导致沙漠化向恶性方向发展。笔者在查阅大量文献的基础上,系统回顾了气候变化对沙漠化影响的研究历史,并从生物地球物理互馈机制、沙尘增多及温室气体增加对气候的影响三个方面概述了沙漠化对气候变化的反馈研究。在研究中存在如下瓶颈:①生物地球物理互馈机制发生的尺度;②沙尘和降水的因果关系;③数据的不一致性及数据特征的差异;④沙漠化过程中自然因素与人为因素的剥离。笔者认为:未来研究应从地球系统科学的角度出发,综合研究沙漠化与气候变化问题,并将模型研究与实地观测并重。 相似文献
6.
ABSTRACTClimate change is a complex and uncertain phenomenon, requiring political approaches that can find compromise and incorporate feedback from experience, as well as harness the role of civil society in holding governments to account. It thus presents an unusual challenge for China, the world’s largest greenhouse-gas emitter and an authoritarian regime, which tends to avoid the inclusion of non-state actors in governance. Drawing on ethnographic research among contemporary Chinese environmental journalists, this article suggests that climate change, as a destabilizing phenomenon with nonlinear and uncertain dynamics, can be drawn upon to develop a pluralistic political position that may run counter to such authoritarian approaches. It shows that Chinese journalists can create in climate reporting a space where outcomes are not known in advance, and where people therefore might generate political positions that challenge dominant narratives around science, technology, and the environment. 相似文献
7.
青藏高原地区生态环境脆弱,其特殊的自然地理环境使其旅游活动对气候变化的反应更为敏感。本文基于545位入藏游客的问卷调查,实证分析青藏高原地区游客对气候变化因子的认知和体验状况,探究气候变化对青藏高原地区旅游活动的影响机理。得出以下主要结论：① 入藏前游客对天气和气候状况的关注度并不高,但是在旅行中这一因素却是旅游体验的最大影响因素;② 优美的高原自然风光是游客对西藏的核心认知之一,直接影响游客的决策与体验;③ 不同地理区域的游客对高原气候因子的关注度和自然环境要素的重视度并不存在显著差异,动机类型才是显著影响这二者的重要因素。研究进一步表明,青藏高原气候的暖湿化趋势对提升该地区的游客体验有积极作用,但气候变化带来的优势并不能够直接转化为潜在游客的出游活动。 相似文献
8.
Jens Kr. Steen Jacobsen Merethe Dotterud Leiren Jarkko Saarinen 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2016,70(5):292-305
The effects of global climate change include more extreme weather events that harm lifeline infrastructure such as road access. The questionnaire-based study takes a novel natural experiment approach to subjective personal experiences and perceptions of lifeline vulnerability in two seaside communities in Norway that have been sporadically isolated due to avalanches, heavy snowfall, and/or snowdrifts. The enquiry aims at filling a research gap on sudden winter climate-induced disconnections and road travel hazards in advanced societies. The results show that weather-induced road closures lead to worries about road travel and practical problems, but also that many people are able to adjust to reduce their vulnerability. The authors concluded that community characteristics such as available services and social and human capital are important for understanding people’s vulnerabilities, worries, and hazard preparedness. 相似文献
9.
Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition. 相似文献
10.
Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology,and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study,LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2,B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions,vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west,but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change,which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale,natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However,in mid-term and long-term scales,there would be severely adverse effect,particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition. 相似文献
11.
气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
本研究以动态植被模型LPJ 为主要工具,以区域气候模式工具PRECIS 产生的A2、B2和A1B情景气候数据为输入,模拟了未来气候变化下中国自然生态系统的变化状况,应用脆弱性评价模型,评估中国自然生态系统响应未来气候变化的脆弱性。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下中国东部地区脆弱程度呈上升趋势,西部地区呈下降趋势,但总体上,中国自然生态系统的脆弱性格局没有大的变化,仍呈现西高东低、北高南低的特点。受气候变化影响严重的地区是东北和华北地区,而青藏高原区南部和西北干旱区受气候变化影响,脆弱程度明显减轻。气候变化情景下的近期气候变化对我国生态系统的影响不大,但中、远期气候变化对生态系统的负面影响较大,特别是在自然条件相对较好的东部地区,脆弱区面积增加较多。 相似文献
12.
国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于国内外农户气候变化感知和适应研究进展,在辨析气候变化和气候变异概念的基础上,阐释农户气候变化/变异感知结果及影响因素。研究发现农户气候变化感知与适应行为之间存在不确定关系,农户气候变化感知直接转化为适应策略需克服一系列障碍因素。针对农户气候变化适应策略,在系统梳理国内外农户适应策略的基础上,对这些策略是否属于气候变化和变异适应行为提出质疑,认为不能忽略其他复杂的社会经济和政治因素对这些措施的驱动作用。最后,对中国未来研究提出慎重大规模开展农户气候变化感知及适应研究、厘清气候变化/变异感知与适应策略之间关系和重视时空异质性以及农户异质性研究三点展望。 相似文献
13.
Matthew T. J. Brownlee Jeffrey C. Hallo DeWayne D. Moore Robert B. Powell Brett A. Wright 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(9):964-982
Areas affected by drought are increasing, and many lakes that provide potable water and recreation opportunities are located in drought-vulnerable areas. Understanding a population's attitudes toward conservation actions can improve communication initiatives, policy development, and education, which are all necessary for effective water resource management. However, little is known about stakeholders’ interactions with drought-influenced resources and the potential factors that form their water conservation attitudes. Using a mixed methods approach, we evaluated lake recreationists’ (n = 229) attitudes toward water conservation at a drought-impacted lake. We identified the relationships between two site-specific factors (place attachment and awareness of drought impacts), beliefs in climate change, concern for drought impacts, and water conservation attitudes. Results indicated concern for local drought impacts fully mediated the relationships between site-specific factors, beliefs in climate change, and attitudes toward water conservation behaviors. Implications for research, outreach, and water resource management are discussed. 相似文献
14.
农户生计对气候变化的恢复力研究综述 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
随着气候变化对自然生态环境和社会经济可持续发展影响的不断加剧,恢复力逐渐成为应对气候变化的一种新理念。首先梳理了不同领域恢复力概念,进而阐述了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力的科学内涵及研究框架。然后重点分析了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力在资本、政府机构、自组织能力和学习能力四方面的具体表现。最后从定性和定量两方面归纳了生计恢复力的度量方法。定性评价方法主要包括农户问卷调查、关键线人访谈、重点小组讨论、生计轨迹方法和案例分析等,定量评价方法包括指标替代法、结构动力学分析法、贝叶斯网络模型法、基准线对比法等。未来研究应注重完善农户生计对气候变化的恢复力评价方法、加强农户生计对气候变化的恢复力动态研究并且开展区域间农户生计对气候变化的恢复力对比研究。 相似文献
15.
Carol Farbotko 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2010,31(2):224-238
At a time when climate change is being defined and grappled with around the world as a looming large‐scale environmental crisis, low‐lying Pacific islands are being publicized in a range of practices as ‘disappearing islands’, and their inhabitants as future ‘climate refugees’. This paper is concerned with the disappearing island as a space in which new intersections between environmentalism and tourism can be explored. It analyzes specifically western representational practices associated with climate change imperatives on Tuvalu, an atoll state in the central Pacific. New phenomena are emerging there such as climate change tourism and the transformation of the islands into showcases of renewable energy. These phenomena are analyzed in order to understand how climate change meanings are being shaped by various participants in the debate. I argue that Pacific islanders are heroized as climate change saviours when environmentalists attempt to locate ethnocentric notions of environmentally harmonious, ‘traditional’ culture on disappearing islands. Further, islanders are objectified in the rhetoric of climate change tourism. Imagined destinies for atoll dwellers as climate saviours are sited uncomfortably alongside voyeuristic gazes turned towards inundated islands. Competing forces of compassion and voyeurism produced in the name of the Tuvaluan indigene are entrenching an iconic role for the Tuvaluan atoll dweller as climate change hero/victim. 相似文献
16.
Mark H. Cooper 《社会与自然资源》2017,30(7):812-828
ABSTRACTThis article examines the stomachs of ruminant livestock as a site of biotechnological intervention and analyzes efforts to reengineer ruminant digestion as a case of the real subsumption of nature. The livestock industry’s capacity to increase production is constrained by available grazing land and concern about environmental consequences of ever-increasing livestock numbers. Ruminants are also a significant source of greenhouse gases and the mitigation of methane is a recognized priority within the global climate framework. The pursuit of “sustainable intensification” and new technological fixes have been identified as preferred responses to these constraints. The case of ruminant methane calls into question assumptions about the primacy of accumulation, rather than regulation, in driving the real subsumption of nature. The pursuit of technological fixes within biologically based industries may be motivated by a need to stabilize the conditions of production, and regulation itself can provide an impetus for the real subsumption of nature. 相似文献
17.
中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估 总被引：29，自引：8，他引：21
生态系统的脆弱性已经成为气候变化影响评估和适应性管理的关键问题。本文介绍和分析了生态系统的脆弱性、敏感性和阈值的概念,中国生态环境的敏感带和脆弱性,脆弱性评估和中国生态系统脆弱分布以及自然生态系统的可持续性和适应减缓对策。自然生态系统对气候变化脆弱性评估仍存在许多问题和不确定性,迫切需要在以下领域开展研究:自主开发新一代气候变化对生态系统影响综合评估模型(特别是双向耦合模型)、加强相关野外长期观测实验、开展适应性与可持续发展示范工程的研究等。 相似文献
18.
气候变化对生态脆弱区以自然资源为生计基础的农户产生了严重影响,急需寻求有效的适应策略。以地处青藏高原东缘的甘南高原为研究区,基于1963-2013年气象数据分析甘南高原气候变化趋势,采用入户调查数据分析了气候变化对农户生计的影响及农户采取的适应策略,并利用多元线性回归模型和多项logistic回归模型分析了影响农户适应策略选择的因素。结果显示：① 近50年甘南高原气温呈增加趋势,倾向率为0.23 ℃/10 a,降水呈减少趋势,倾向率为-5.21 mm/10a,63.45%的农户认为气候变化对其生计带来了严重影响;② 甘南高原农户的适应策略多样化指数为2.65,农户的人力资本、自然资本、金融资本及其对气候变化的严重性感知、适应效能感知及自我效能感知与适应策略多样化程度呈显著正相关;③ 甘南高原65.30%的农户采取各种组合型策略应对气候变化,尤以采取扩张+调整型组合策略的农户为多,农户的人力资本是影响其适应策略选择的最显著因素,社会资本与气候变化风险感知的影响次之,金融资本及气候变化适应效能感知的影响最弱。最后,提出提高农户适应气候变化能力的对策建议。 相似文献
19.
Jonathon Collins 《The Australian geographer》2014,45(3):289-307
ABSTRACTBangladesh is at the forefront of countries experiencing and debating climate change, despite having contributed little to global emissions, and has the greatest vulnerability to climate change due to inadequate institutional support for the dense population dispersed in low-lying terrain. A micro-level study of livelihoods in the Panpatti Union, a district of the coastal zone exposed to climate stress and an array of other social, economic and political stresses, demonstrated that adaptation strategies to a range of shocks were both reactive and proactive. The persistent nature of shocks, and the limited margins in which to respond, meant that achieving sustainable long-term livelihoods was unusually difficult. Despite cases of dynamism and flexibility, where livelihoods had been effectively diversified, rural people largely failed to reduce their exposure to vulnerability. That was especially true of extremely poor, landless and female-headed households. In such challenging circumstances external interventions were required to ensure sustainable development, but were unlikely because of the isolation of Panpatti and the number of villages and people in similar circumstances. This emphasised the need to develop a more robust livelihoods framework to support the most vulnerable communities in severe economic and environmental contexts where climate change is likely to exacerbate all existing problems. 相似文献
20.
全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升以及高潮位和风暴潮引起的极值水位导致的海岸洪水对沿海社会经济和自然环境造成巨大影响,已是国内外关注的重点。论文梳理了广义和狭义海岸洪水的定义和要素,重点阐述了狭义海岸洪水的组成部分,从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体以及风险评估方法与模型3个方面,系统总结了相关研究方法与研究成果的主要进展,以及存在的主要问题,并透视了未来拟加强的研究方向。建议加强沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的研究,包括全球气候变化下多致灾因子耦合危险性和不确定性研究,沿海关键地区和关键暴露(关键基础设施)的风险评估研究,全球气候变化风险适应与减缓性措施的成本效益评价研究,提高沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的韧性研究,以及建立多学科间的基础数据共享机制,采用交叉学科手段以便更综合、系统、动态研究海岸带问题,保障沿海地区开展全球气候变化下风险评估的需要。 相似文献