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1.
AbstractStatistically significant FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) and adjusted Hargreaves (AHARG) reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales were analysed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests at the 1 and 5% significance levels. Meteorological data were used from 12 meteorological stations in Serbia, which has a humid climate, for the period 1980–2010. Web-based software for conducting the trend analyses was developed. All of the trends significant at the 1 and 5% significance levels were increasing. The FAO-56 PM ET0 trends were almost similar to the AHARG trends. On the seasonal time scale, for the majority of stations significant increasing trends occurred in summer, while no significant positive or negative trends were detected by the trend tests in autumn for the AHARG series. Moreover, 70% of the stations were characterized by significant increasing trends for both annual ET0 series. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. GrimaldiCitation Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S., 2013. Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 165–180. 相似文献
2.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract Major floods in Europe and North America during the past decade have provoked the question of whether or not they are an effect of a changing climate. This study investigates changes in observational data, using up to 100-year-long daily mean river flow records at 21 stations worldwide. Trends in seven flood and low-flow index series are assessed using Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods. Emphasis was on the comparison of trends in these flow index series, particularly in peak-over-threshold (POT) series as opposed to annual maximum (AM) river flow series. There is a larger number of significant trends in the AM than in the POT flood magnitude series, probably relating to the way the series are constructed. Low flood peaks occurring at the beginning or end of a time series with trend may be too low to be selected for the POT analysis. However, one peak per year will always be selected for the AM series, making the slope steeper and/or the series longer, resulting in a more significant trend. There is no general pattern of increasing or decreasing numbers or magnitudes of floods, but there are significant increases in half of the low-flow series. 相似文献
3.
A combination of statistical hypothesis testing methods (Mann-Whitney, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho) and visual exploratory analysis were used to investigate trends in Irish 7-day sustained low-flow (7SLF) series possibly driven by changes in summer rainfall patterns. River flow data from 33 gauging stations covering most major Irish rivers were analysed, after excluding catchments where low flows are influenced by significant human interventions. A statistically significant increasing trend in the 7SLF series was identified by all three tests at eight gauging stations; in contrast, a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified by all three tests at four stations. The stations with increasing trends are mainly located within the western half of the country, while there is no particular spatial clustering of the stations showing a decreasing trend. Further analysis suggests that the increasing trend in the 7SLF time series persists regardless of the starting year of analysis. However, the decreasing trend occurs only when years prior to 1970 are included in the analysis, and disappears, or is reversed, if only the data from 1970 and onwards are considered. There is strong evidence that the direction of the trends in the 7SLF series is determined mainly by trends in total summer rainfall amounts, i.e. is linked to weather.
EDITOR Z.W. KundzewiczASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
4.
Abstract A method is described that allows long-term 1-day annual and seasonal flow duration curves at any ungauged location in one of the drainage regions of South Africa to be established. The method is based on normalization of observed flow duration curves by a long-term mean daily flow and subsequent averaging of normalized ordinates of the curves. The estimate of mean daily discharge for an ungauged site is obtained using the information from the existing national data base of flow characteristics. The established set of flow duration curves at a site is further translated into actual daily streamflow time series using a simple nonlinear spatial interpolation technique. 相似文献
5.
Yédjinnavènan Ahokpossi 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(15-16):2097-2123
ABSTRACTThe temporal variation and trends of annual rainfall distribution in Benin were examined using data from 1940 to 2015 at six meteorological stations and three raingauges stationed throughout the country. The nonparametric modified Mann-Kendal (MK) and Levene tests were applied to detect trends and heteroscedasticity, respectively. For six of the time series, no significant trends were detected. A Bayesian multiple change points detection approach was applied to the rainfall time series, and most (six of nine) exhibited abrupt change points, corresponding to the alternation between wet (before 1968 and after 1990) and dry (1969–1990) periods. No significant trends or breakpoints and changes in the variance were observed for the spatial average rainfall time series. Seven modified MK trend tests were applied; the trends are affected by the selected MK method and rainfall statistics. Oceanic and/or atmospheric influences on the rainfall in Benin were examined by investigating the correlation between the precipitation time series and several indices. Negative seasonal correlations were determined for the North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Niño3, while positive seasonal correlations were observed for the Southern Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation and Dipole Mode Index. 相似文献
6.
L. Ribeiro 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1840-1852
AbstractToday, more than ever, there is a need to implement robust statistical methods to ensure the proper evaluation of water resources data to support decision makers in water resources planning and management. Graphing or mapping data for visualization is the easiest way to communicate trends, especially to a non-technical audience. This paper describes the use of an approach that combines the Mann-Kendall test, Sen slope test and principal component analysis to detect and map the monthly trends of piezometric time series and their magnitude in the period 1979–2008. The data were obtained in 23 shallow wells in the alluvial aquifers of the Elqui River basin in central Chile, an area characterized by scarce water resources and intense agricultural and mining activities. The results show significant downward trends at the majority of the wells. Because groundwater in these shallow wells is highly dependent on the water in the river and its tributaries, the reasons for these downward trends are mainly related to a decrease of streamflow observed in the Elqui River. The streamflow is derived from mountain snowmelt rather than from rainfall, which showed no flow trend during the same period. 相似文献
7.
ABSTRACTThe trends in hydrological and climatic time series data of Urmia Lake basin in Iran were examined using the four different versions of the Mann-Kendall (MK) approach: (i) the original MK test; (ii) the MK test considering the effect of lag-1 autocorrelation; (iii) the MK test considering the effect of all autocorrelation or sample size; and (iv) the MK test considering the Hurst coefficient. Identification of hydrological and climatic data trends was carried out at monthly and annual time scales for 25 temperature, 35 precipitation and 35 streamflow gauging stations selected from the Urmia Lake basin. Mann-Kendall and Pearson tests were also applied to explore the relationships between temperature, precipitation and streamflow trends. The results show statistically significant upward and downward trends in the annual and monthly hydrological and climatic variables. The upward trends in temperature, unlike streamflow, are much more pronounced than the downward trends, but for precipitation the behaviour of trend is different on monthly and annual time scales. Furthermore, the trend results were affected by the different approaches. Specifically, the number of stations showing trends in hydrological and climatic variables decreased significantly (up to 50%) when the fourth test was considered instead of the first and the absolute value of the Z statistic for most of the time series was reduced. The results of correlations between streamflow and climatic variables showed that the streamflow in Urmia Lake basin is more sensitive to changes in temperature than those of precipitation. The observed decreases in streamflow and increases in temperature in the Urmia Lake basin in recent decades may thus have serious implications for water resources management under the warming climate with the expected population growth and increased freshwater consumption in this region.
Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang 相似文献
8.
ELFATIH A. B. ELTAHIR 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):185-199
Abstract Rainfall is the most important water resource in central and western Sudan, a region affected by the recent drought in Africa. A general methodology for studying the annual rainfall process is presented and applied to data from central and western Sudan. It is assumed that certain time series models adequately describe the annual rainfall process in the region. Based on this assumption, the drought frequencies are calculated in the subregions with stationary series. The theory of runs is applied in calculating drought frequencies using a data generation method. 相似文献
9.
AbstractWe evaluate flood magnitude and frequency trends across the Mid-Atlantic USA at stream gauges selected for long record lengths and climate sensitivity, and find field significant increases. Fifty-three of 75 study gauges show upward trends in annual flood magnitude, with 12 showing increases at p < 0.05. We investigate trends in flood frequency using partial duration series data and document upward trends at 75% of gauges, with 27% increasing at p < 0.05. Many study gauges show evidence for step increases in flood magnitude and/or frequency around 1970. Expanding our study area to include New England, we find evidence for lagged positive relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation phase and flood magnitude and frequency. Our results suggest hydroclimatic changes in regional flood response that are related to a combination of factors, including cyclic atmospheric variability and secular trends related to climate warming affecting both antecedent conditions and event-scale processes.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor H. Lins 相似文献
10.
Trend analysis of water discharge and sediment load during the past three decades of development in the Langat basin,Malaysia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Abstract In this study, the trends of water discharge and sediment load from three hydrometric stations over the past 25 years of development in the state of Selangor, Peninsular Malaysia, were analysed using the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests. Landscape metrics for establishing the relationship between land-use changes and trends of hydrological time series were calculated. The hydrological trends were also studied in terms of rainfall variations and manmade features. The results indicate upward trends in water discharge in the Hulu Langat sub-basin and in sediment load in the Semenyih sub-basin. These increasing trends were mainly caused by rapid changes in land use. Upward trends of hydrological series in the Hulu Langat sub-basin matched its rainfall pattern. In the Lui sub-basin, however, trends of hydrological series, and variations in rainfall and land use were not statistically significant. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed Citation Memarian, H., Balasundram, S.K., Talib, J.B., Sood, A.M., and Abbaspour, K.C., 2012. Trend analysis of water discharge and sediment load during the past three decades of development in the Langat basin, Malaysia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1207–1222. 相似文献
11.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract The study of changes in annual rainfall in the Lake Chad basin during the 20th century is based on the analysis of 47 stations, i.e. a total of about 1600 station-years for the time series with more than 25 years of data. As previously observed in western and Sahelian Africa, robust tests of shift in time series identify a significant change in mean from the beginning of the 1960s between the latitudes 11 and 13°N, and a little later in this decade for the northern stations. The analysis of decadal rainfall shows that the 1950s decade was very humid and the next three decades were drier. These dry conditions were more and more severe until the 1980s. Data available after 1990 do not show any inversion in the trend. The annual rainfall decreases from south to north, and the regional gradient has changed from 1.5 mm km?1 in the 1950s to 1.2 mm km?1 in the 1980s between the latitudes 10 and 14°N. 相似文献
12.
ABSTRACTThis review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich 相似文献
13.
Biswajit Mukhopadhyay 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2062-2085
AbstractField observations and geodetic measurements suggest that in the Karakoram Mountains, glaciers are either stable or have expanded since 1990, in sharp contrast to glacier retreats that are prevalently observed in the Himalayas and adjoining high-altitude terrains of central Asia. Decreased discharge in the rivers originating from this region is cited as a supporting evidence for this somewhat anomalous phenomenon. Here, we show that river discharge during the melting season of the glaciers in the eastern and western Karakoram, respectively, exhibits rising and falling trends. We have implemented a statistical procedure involving non-parametric tests combined with a benchmark smoothing technique that has proven to be a powerful method for separating the stochastic component from the trend component in a time series. Precipitation patterns determined from ERA-40 and GPCP data indicate that summer-monsoonal precipitation has increased over the Karakoram Mountains in recent decades. Increasing flows in June and July in the eastern Karakoram are due to an increase in summer-monsoonal precipitation. The rising trend of August discharge is due to an increase in the loss of glacier storage at an approximate average rate of 0.186–0.217 mm d-1 year-1 during the period 1973–2010. Moreover, this rate is higher than the rate of increase in monsoonal snowfall during the months of August and September. Therefore, most plausibly, glacier mass balance in the eastern Karakoram is negative. In the western Karakoram, river flows show declining trends for all summer months for the period 1966–2010, corresponding to a rate of increase of glacier storage by approximately 0.552–0.644 mm d-1 year-1, which is also higher than the rate of increase in summer-monsoonal precipitation. The gain of the cryospheric mass in the western Karakoram is in the form of increased thickness of the glaciers and perennial snowpacks instead of areal expansion. This investigation shows two contrasting patterns of trends of river flows that signify both negative and positive mass balance of the Karakoram glaciers. Trends of river flows are spatially and temporally integrated responses of a watershed to changing climate and thereby are important signals of the conditions of the cryospheric component of a watershed where it is highly significant. However, they cannot unequivocally provide indications of the state and fate of the glaciers in the complex hydrometeorological setting of the Karakoram. Extreme caution and care must be exercised in interpreting trends of river discharge in conjunction with climatic data. 相似文献
14.
ABSTRACTSuspended solids are present in every river, but high quantities can worsen the ecological conditions of streams; therefore, effective monitoring and analysis of this hydrological variable are necessary. Frequency, seasonality, inter-correlation, extreme events, trends and lag analyses were carried out for peaks of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and discharge (Q) data from Slovenian streams using officially monitored data from 1955 to 2006 that were made available by the Slovenian Environment Agency. In total more than 500 station-years of daily Q and SSC data were used. No uniform (positive or negative) trend was found in the SSC series; however, all the statistically significant trends were decreasing. No generalization is possible for the best fit distribution function. A seasonality analysis showed that most of the SSC peaks occurred in the summer (short-term intense convective precipitation produced by thunderstorms) and in the autumn (prolonged frontal precipitation). Correlations between Q and SSC values were generally relatively small (Pearson correlation coefficient values from 0.05 to 0.59), which means that the often applied Q–SSC curves should be used with caution when estimating annual suspended sediment loads. On average, flood peak Q occurred after the corresponding SSC peak (clockwise-positive hysteresis loops), but the average lag time was rather small (less than 1 day).
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei 相似文献
15.
Abstract This work investigates historical trends of meteorological drought in Taiwan by means of long-term precipitation records. Information on local climate change over the last century is also presented. Monthly and daily precipitation data for roughly 100 years, collected by 22 weather stations, were used as the study database. Meteorological droughts of different levels of severity are represented by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at a three-monthly time scale. Additionally, change-point detection is used to identify meteorological drought trends in the SPI series. Results of the analysis indicate that the incidence of meteorological drought has decreased in northeastern Taiwan since around 1960, and increased in central and southern Taiwan. Long-term daily precipitation series show an increasing trend for dry days all over Taiwan. Finally, frequency analysis was performed to obtain further information on trends of return periods of drought characteristics. 相似文献
16.
Abstract A comparison study is presented of three methods for evaluating trends in drought frequency: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and a new method for estimation of dry spells (DS), which is based on average daily temperature and precipitation, and takes into account the length of a spell. The methods were applied to climate data from 450 stations in the Elbe River basin for the period 1951–2003, as well as data from several stations with longer observed time series. Statistical methods were used to calculate trend lines and evaluate the significance of detected trends. The dry spells estimated with the new method show significant trends in the whole lowland part of the Elbe basin during the last 53 years, and at the 10% level almost everywhere in the German part of the basin excluding mountains and the area around the river mouth. The SPI and PDSI methods also revealed significant trends, but for smaller areas in the lowland. The new DS method provides a useful supplement to other drought indices for the detection of trends in drought frequency. Furthermore, the DS method was able to detect statistically significant trends in areas where the other two methods failed to find significant trends, e.g. in the loess region in the southwest of the German part of the basin, where small insignificant changes in climate can lead to significant changes in water fluxes. This is important, because the loess region is the area within the basin having the highest crop yields. Therefore, additional research has to be done to investigate possible impacts of detected trends on water resources availability, and possible future trends in drought frequency under climate change. 相似文献
17.
T. N. NARASIMHAN 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):91-105
Abstract The non-equilibrium formula of Theis has hitherto been found to be inadequate to analyse drawdown data from open wells, due to the influence of effects of well-storage on early drawdown data. Recently, a reliable type-curve method was proposed by Papadopulos and Cooper to analyse drawdowns in wells of large diameter. In order to study its practical validity, the Papadopulos-Cooper method was applied to drawdown data from six open wells, tapping the alluvial sands of the river Palar, near Madras city, India. The study has indicated that the method has considerable practical utility in analysing drawdown data from large diameter open wells. Besides, the method also offers an easy way of computing the duration over which the effects of well-storage are likely to influence drawdown data, in terms of aquifer transmissibility and well-radius. If a rough idea of aquifer trans-missibility is available from existing data, then, such a computation, to determine the duration over which wellstorage affects drawdown, could be initially made to advantage, so that proper judgement could be exercised in using other conventional methods of analysis, such as that of Jacob or that of Theis. (Key Words: Pumping tests; Open wells; Papadopulos-Cooper method.) 相似文献
18.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)
Abstract Abstract Monthly precipitation and temperature trends of 51 stations in the Yangtze basin from 1950–2002 were analysed and interpolated. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to examine the monthly precipitation and temperature data. Significant positive and negative trends at the 90, 95 and 99% significance levels were detected. The monthly mean temperature, precipitation, summer precipitation and monthly mean runoff at Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations were analysed. The results indicate that spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature trends is different. The middle and lower Yangtze basin is dominated by upward precipitation trend but by somewhat downward temperature trend; while downward precipitation trend and upward temperature trend occur in the upper Yangtze basin. This is because increasing precipitation leads to increasing cloud coverage and, hence, results in decreasing ground surface temperature. Average monthly precipitation and temperature analysis for the upper, middle and lower Yangtze basin, respectively, further corroborate this viewpoint. Analysis of precipitation trend for these three regions and of runoff trends for the Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations indicated that runoff trends respond well to the precipitation trends. Historical flood trend analysis also shows that floods in the middle and lower Yangtze basin are in upward trend. The above findings indicate that the middle and lower Yangtze basin is likely to face more serious flood disasters. The research results help in further understanding the influence of climatic changes on floods in the Yangtze basin, providing scientific background for the flood control activities in large catchments in Asia. 相似文献
19.
Carla Manciati Marcos Villacís Jean-Denis Taupin Eric Cadier Remigio Galárraga-Sánchez Bolívar Cáceres 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1519-1535
AbstractMost Latin American glaciers are located in the tropical Andes. The melting processes of Glacier “15” on Antisana volcano were studied to understand the relationship between glacier retreat and natural climate variability and global climate change. Glaciers on the Antisana volcano are crucial sources of water as they feed the headwater rivers that supply Quito with potable water. The aim of this study was to build empirical models based on multiple correlations to reconstruct the mass loss of glaciers over a period of 10 years at three scales: local (data recorded by meteorological stations located around the volcano), regional (data from stations located around the country) and global (re-analysis data). Data quality was checked using graphical and statistical methods. Several empirical models based on multiple correlations were created to generate longer time series (42 and 115 years) of the mass balance for the glacier ablation zone. The long mass balance series were compared with the temperature variation series of the Earth’s surface in the Southern Hemisphere to estimate the relation between the mass balance and global warming. Our results suggest that the meteorological factors that best correlate with mass balance are temperature and wind.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
20.
Mamadou Adama Sarr Philippe Gachon Ousmane Seidou Christopher Robin Bryant Jacques André Ndione Jacques Comby 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(9):1538-1549
AbstractDaily precipitation data from 31 Senegalese stations spanning the period from 1950 to 2007 were used to examine the inter-annual variations of seven rainfall indices: the annual mean precipitation (MEAN); the annual standard deviation of daily precipitation (STD); the frequency of wet days (Prcp1); the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD); the maximum 3-day rainfall total (R3D); the wet day precipitation intensity (SDII); and the 90th percentile of rain-day precipitation (Prec90p). The indices were spatially averaged over three agro-climatic regions in Senegal. Trends in the time series of the averaged indices were assessed using both visual examination and a modified version of the Mann-Kendall (MM-K) test. Initially negative significant trends in all seven indices suggest gradually drier conditions over the three agro-climatic regions between 1950 and 1980. In contrast, no significant trends, or even positive significant trends, were observed from the mid-1980s to 2007. The MM-K test was applied to all available data (1950–2007) and the period from 1971 to 2000. While several indices were found to have significant trends towards drier conditions for the 1950–2007 period, only PRCP1 showed a positive significant trend for the 1971–2000 period. The MM-K test did not detect a significant trend for the other indices. It was found that the rainfall deficit and therefore drought is no longer intensifying, and that the region may even become wetter. However, the period covered by the observations is still too short to resolve the question of whether there is now a trend towards wetter conditions.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed 相似文献