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1.
Based on a three-month-scale standardized precipitation index (SPI-3) computed from the available rainfall data of 13 stations of Niger, meteorological drought trends, periodicities and the relationships with 10 oceanic–atmospheric variables were analysed using the Mann-Kendall test, continuous wavelet transform and cross-wavelet analysis, respectively. The results revealed a significant (p < 5%) increase in drought at five of the 13 stations. A common dominant drought periodicity of 2 years was found at all of the stations, whereas significant periodicities varied from 2 to 32 years at six stations. Among the considered climate indices, South Atlantic sea-surface temperature, Southern Oscillation Index, sea-level pressure, geopotential height and relative humidity from the Atlantic basin oscillated in anti-phase relative to the SPI-3 at an inter-annual to decadal time scale from 1960 to 1990. In this period, relative humidity from the Mediterranean basin and zonal wind oscillated in phase with the drought index. 相似文献
2.
Long-term trend analysis using discrete wavelet components of annual precipitations measurements in Marmara region (Turkey) 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
The purpose of this study is to determine the possible trends in annual total precipitation series by using the non-parametric methods such as the wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The wavelet trend (W-T) analysis is for the first time presented in this study. Using discrete wavelet components of measurement series, we aimed to find which periodicities are mainly responsible for trend of the measurement series. We found that some periodic events clearly affect the trend of precipitation series. 16-yearly periodic component is the effective component on Bal?kesir annual precipitation data and is responsible for producing a real trend founded on the data. Also, global wavelet spectra and continuous wavelet transform were used for analysis to precipitation time series in order to clarify time-scale characteristics of the measured series. The effects of regional differences on W-T analysis are checked by using records of measurement stations located in different climatic areas. The data set spans from 1929 to 1993 and includes precipitation records from meteorological stations of Turkey. The trend analysis on DW components of the precipitation time series (W-T model) clearly explains the trend structure of data. 相似文献
3.
This study is an attempt to determine the trends in monthly, annual and monsoon total precipitation series over India by applying linear regression, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and discrete wavelet transform (DWT). The linear regression test was applied on five consecutive classical 30-year climate periods and a long-term precipitation series (1851–2006) to detect changes. The sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was applied to identify the temporal variation in trend. Wavelet transform is a relatively new tool for trend analysis in hydrology. Comparison studies were carried out between decomposed series by DWT and original series. Furthermore, visualization of extreme and contributing events was carried out using the wavelet spectrum at different threshold values. The results showed that there are significant positive trends for annual and monsoon precipitation series in North Mountainous India (zone NMI) and North East India (NEI), whereas negative trends were detected when considering India as whole.
EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae 相似文献
4.
Non‐parametric methods including Mann–Kendall (M–K) test, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and discrete wavelet transform analysis are applied in this paper to detect the trend and periodic trait of precipitation data series in Beijing area where the data set spans nearly 300 years from 1724 to 2009. First, the trend of precipitation variables is elaborated by the M–K test (Sequential M–K test). The results show that there is an increasing trend (the value of this trend is 1.98) at the 5%‐significance level and there are not turning points in the whole data series. Then, CWT and wavelet variance are used to check for significant periodic characteristics of data series. In the plots of wavelet transform coefficients and figure of wavelet variance, some periodic events affect the trend of the annual total precipitation series in Beijing area. 85‐year, 35‐year and 21‐year periodic events are found to be the main periodic series of long‐term precipitation data, and they are all statistically significant. Moreover, the results of non‐parametric M–K test are exhibited on seven different combinations of discrete wavelet components. D5 (32‐year periodicity) periodic component is the effective and significant component on data. It is coincident with the result (35‐year periodic event as one part of main periodicity) by using CWT analysis. Moreover, approximation mode shows potential trend of the whole data set because it is the residuals as all periodicities are removed from data series. Thus, the mode A + D5 is responsible for producing a real basic structure of the trend founded on the data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
ABSTRACT In this study, annual and seasonal precipitation trend analysis was performed in the Euphrates-Tigris basin, Turkey, using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and discrete wavelet transformation. In this context, it was seen that there is a downward trend in winter, spring and annual precipitation, whereas precipitation has an increasing tendency in summer and autumn seasons, in the greater part of the basin. When annual and seasonal data were decomposed into wavelet components, the most significant trends were observed for high-periodic wavelet components, such as D3 (8-year), D4 (16-year) and D5 (32-year), where these components represent the periods of the precipitation data. Then, the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and trend in precipitation was investigated. In this regard, it was found that there could be a significant relationship between the NAO and precipitation trends of the Euphrates-Tigris basin, especially in winter, based on the wavelet ITA. 相似文献
6.
The main purpose of this study was to determine the most dominant periodic components that affect the annual and seasonal precipitation trends in each homogenous rainfall region in the Langat River Basin, Malaysia for the period 1982–2011. Performing this research could be essential because in the previous studies on detection of trend in Malaysia, the details of variations of different time scales and the periodic responsible for the observed trends were not investigated. Using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) coupled with Mann–Kendall at the regional scale for the first time particularly in the context of Malaysia is the contribution of this study. In order to form the homogenous rainfall regions, first the total annual and seasonal precipitation in each year was spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting method. The obtained precipitation series for the grids were then grouped applying the Ward’s clustering method based on the similarity of precipitation time series. After allocating a cluster number to each grid, the boundary of the regions was formed in ArcGIS software. Following which, in each homogenous region the areal precipitation series were computed by the Thiessen polygon method. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to detect trend and the DWT coupled with the MK test and the sequential MK analysis were then utilized in order to find out the time scale which affected the observed trend in each homogenous region. On annual scale, it was found that D1 (plus approximation) component in regions Annual Cluster1 (AC1) and AC2 was the periodic mode responsible for trends. On seasonal scale, in regions Northeast monsoon Cluster 1 (NC1), NC3, SC1 and Southwest monsoon Cluster 2 (SC2), D1 (with approximation), in regions NC4, Inter monsoon 1 Cluster 1 (I1C1), I1C2, Inter monsoon 2 Cluster 1 I2C1 and I2C2, Detail 2 (D2) (plus approximation) and in region NC2, Detail 3 (D3) (with approximation added) component were the most influential periodicity for trends. 相似文献
7.
本文在多年对东北地震大形势研究基础上,根据1900年以来东北地区地震目录资料,按年最大震级、地震频度和地震活动度分别建立三个时间序列f(t),利用离散小波变换对其进行分解,结果发现三个序列的小波变换细节系数均显示平均约20年周期的时序特征,并与该区地震活跃期符合得较好。依此,对该区地震活动发展趋势作了预测,认为当前地震活跃期大约在2008年结束。 相似文献
8.
Abstract This work investigates historical trends of meteorological drought in Taiwan by means of long-term precipitation records. Information on local climate change over the last century is also presented. Monthly and daily precipitation data for roughly 100 years, collected by 22 weather stations, were used as the study database. Meteorological droughts of different levels of severity are represented by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at a three-monthly time scale. Additionally, change-point detection is used to identify meteorological drought trends in the SPI series. Results of the analysis indicate that the incidence of meteorological drought has decreased in northeastern Taiwan since around 1960, and increased in central and southern Taiwan. Long-term daily precipitation series show an increasing trend for dry days all over Taiwan. Finally, frequency analysis was performed to obtain further information on trends of return periods of drought characteristics. 相似文献
9.
Yonghong Hao Guoliang Liu Huamin Li Zhongtang Li Jiaojuan Zhao Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2012,26(20):3062-3069
Niangziguan Spring complex is the largest karst spring in North China. We investigate the karst hydrological processes by using Morlet wavelet transform analysis and cross wavelet analysis based on monthly precipitation from 1958 to 2010 and spring discharge from 1958 to 2009. From Morlet wavelet transform coefficients of precipitation and the spring discharge in Niangziguan Springs Basin, we find that the precipitation and discharge are characterized by the multi‐scale features in the time domain, and the energy distribution of the signal is highly irregular across scales. Although precipitation eventually becomes spring discharge by infiltrating and propagating through karst formations, the signals are attenuated. The results also show that the precipitation of Niangziguan Springs Basin has the main periodic components of 1‐, 5‐, 12‐, and 17‐year periods with alternating wet–drought cycle. Similarly, the spring discharge of Niangziguan Springs has the main components of 17‐year periods, but the 1‐, 5‐, and 12‐year periodicity of precipitation are not reflected in spring discharge, which is filtered by the aquifers. The results of cross wavelet analysis reveal that the precipitation and spring discharge share the common periodicity of 17 years. This means that those signals with high energy and long timescales can penetrate through the aquifer and be reflected in spring discharge, whereas other signals are filtered and modified. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
ABSTRACT This study assesses the climate change impact on rainfall and drought incidents across Nigeria. Linear regression, Mann-Kendall tests and lag-1 serial correlation were adopted to analyse the trends and variability of rainfall and drought at 18 synoptic stations. Analysis of annual precipitation series indicates an increase in rainfall amounts at all stations, except Minna, Gusau and Yola. Seventeen of the 18 stations recorded at least one main drought period, between 1983 and 1987. A decreasing trend for the standardized precipitation index SPI-12 series was seen at Yola station, while the other stations showed an increasing trend. Also, Nigeria witnessed more annual rainfall totals but with high variability within the rainy months of the year in the first 15 years of the 21st century compared to the 20th century. Such variability in rainfall may have a significant effect on groundwater resources and the hydrology of Nigeria. 相似文献
11.
AbstractStatistically significant FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) and adjusted Hargreaves (AHARG) reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales were analysed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests at the 1 and 5% significance levels. Meteorological data were used from 12 meteorological stations in Serbia, which has a humid climate, for the period 1980–2010. Web-based software for conducting the trend analyses was developed. All of the trends significant at the 1 and 5% significance levels were increasing. The FAO-56 PM ET0 trends were almost similar to the AHARG trends. On the seasonal time scale, for the majority of stations significant increasing trends occurred in summer, while no significant positive or negative trends were detected by the trend tests in autumn for the AHARG series. Moreover, 70% of the stations were characterized by significant increasing trends for both annual ET0 series. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. GrimaldiCitation Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S., 2013. Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 165–180. 相似文献
12.
M. Janga Reddy S. Adarsh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(4):1063-1085
Time–frequency characterization is useful in understanding the nonlinear and non-stationary signals of the hydro-climatic time series. The traditional Fourier transform, and wavelet transform approaches have certain limitations in analyzing non-linear and non-stationary hydro-climatic series. This paper presents an effective approach based on the Hilbert–Huang transform to investigate time–frequency characteristics, and the changing patterns of sub-divisional rainfall series in India, and explored the possible association of monsoon seasonal rainfall with different global climate oscillations. The proposed approach integrates the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise algorithm and normalized Hilbert transform method for analyzing the spectral characteristics of two principal seasonal rainfall series over four meteorological subdivisions namely Assam-Meghalaya, Kerala, Orissa and Telangana subdivisions in India. The Hilbert spectral analysis revealed the dynamic nature of dominant time scales for two principal seasonal rainfall time series. From the trend analysis of instantaneous amplitudes of multiscale components called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), it is found that both intra and inter decadal modes are responsible for the changes in seasonal rainfall series of different subdivisions and significant changes are noticed in the amplitudes of inter decadal modes of two seasonal rainfalls in the four subdivisions since 1970s. Further, the study investigated the links between monsoon rainfall with the global climate oscillations such as Quasi Bienniel Oscillation (QBO), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Sunspot Number (SN), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) etc. The study noticed that the multiscale components of rainfall series IMF1, IMF2, IMF3, IMF4 and IMF5 have similar periodic structure of QBO, ENSO, SN, tidal forcing and AMO respectively. As per the seasonal rainfall patterns is concerned, the results of the study indicated that for Assam-Meghalaya subdivision, there is a likelihood of extreme rare events at ~0.2 cycles per year, and both monsoon and pre-monsoon rainfall series have decreasing trends; for Kerala subdivision, extreme events can be expected during monsoon season with shorter periodicity (~2.5 years), and monsoon rainfall has statistically significant decreasing trend and post-monsoon rainfall has a statistically significant increasing trend; and for Orissa subdivision, there are chances of extremes rainfall events in monsoon season and a relatively stable rainfall pattern during post-monsoon period, but both monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall series showed an overall decreasing trend; for Telangana subdivision, there is a likelihood of extreme events during monsoon season with a periodicity of ~4 years, but both monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall series showed increasing trends. The results of correlation analysis of IMF components of monsoon rainfall and five climate indices indicated that the association is expressed well only for low frequency modes with similar evolution of trend components. 相似文献
13.
Davison Mwale Thian Yew Gan Kevin Devito Carl Mendoza Uldis Silins Richard Petrone 《水文研究》2009,23(21):3040-3056
By applying wavelet‐based empirical orthogonal function (WEOF) analysis to gridded precipitation (P) and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to gridded air temperature (T), potential evapotranspiration (PET), net precipitation (P‐PET) and runoff (Q), this paper examines the spatial, temporal and frequency patterns of Alberta's climate variability. It was found that only WEOF‐based precipitation patterns, possibly modulated by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), delineated Alberta into four major regions which geographically represent northern Alberta Boreal forests, southern Alberta grasslands and Aspen Parklands and the Rocky Mountains and Foothills. The leading mode of wavelet‐based precipitation variability WPC1 showed that between 1900 and 2000, a wet climate dominated northern Alberta with significant 4–8, 11 and 25‐year periodic cycles, while the second mode WPC2 showed that between 1960 and 2000, southern Alberta grasslands were characterized by decreasing precipitation, dominated by 11‐year cycles, and the last two modes WPC3 and WPC4 were characterized by 4–7 and 25‐year cycles and both delineated regions where moisture from the Pacific Ocean penetrated the Rocky Mountains, accounted for much of the sub‐alpine climate. These results show that WEOF is superior to EOF in delineating Alberta precipitation variability to sub‐regions that more closely agree with its eco‐climate regions. Further, it was found that while WPC2 could not explain runoff variations in southern Alberta, WPC1, WPC3 and WPC4 accounted for runoff variability in their respective sub‐regions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
Abstract The trends of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation in southern China (Guangdong Province) for the period 1956–2000 are investigated, based on the data from 186 high-quality gauging stations. Statistical tests, including Mann-Kendall rank test and wavelet analysis, are employed to determine whether the precipitation series exhibit any regular trend and periodicity. The results indicate that the annual precipitation has a slightly decreasing trend in central Guangdong and slight increasing trends in the eastern and western areas of the province. However, all the annual trends are not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The average precipitation increases in the dry season in central Guangdong, but decreases in the wet season, meaning that the precipitation becomes more evenly distributed within the year. Furthermore, the analysis of monthly precipitation suggests that the distribution of intra-annual precipitation changes over time. The results of wavelet analysis show prominent precipitation with periods ranging from 10 to 12 years in every sub-region in Guangdong Province. Comparing with the sunspot cycle (11-year), the annual precipitation in every sub-region in Guangdong province correlates with Sunspot Number with a 3-year lag. The findings in this paper will be useful for water resources management. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Sheng Yue Citation Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Xiaohong Chen and Quanxi Shao, 2012. Analysis of trends of annual and seasonal precipitation from 1956 to 2000 in Guangdong Province, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 358–369. 相似文献
15.
Abstract This study presents the first comprehensive nationwide trend detection of streamflow in Nepal, a country that has been historically understudied despite its critical location as the southern pathway for most of the Himalayan snowpack melt and torrential seasonal monsoon rains. We applied Mann-Kendall and Sen's trend tests using trend-free pre-whitening and bootstrap approaches to two streamflow data sets to deal with serial and cross-correlation. The two data sets comprised 23–33 hydrometric stations with 31 years and more than 20 years of published data, respectively. The test on the 33 stations data set showed that 23% of the streamflow variables studied had statistically significant trends, evenly divided between upward and downward trends. Similarly, in the second, relatively smaller data set, 24% of variables exhibited trends, of which 41% were downward and 59% upward. The higher percentage of observed upward trends in pre-monsoon and winter seasonal average flow is noteworthy given the potential snowmelt contribution in many of the studied sites. Trends were mostly absent in stations draining the larger basins. However, some spatial patterns were seen in the observed trend directions, specifically, a downward trend in the Karnali-Mahakali River basin and an upward trend in the West Rapti River basin, as well as a nationwide absence of trend in the post-monsoon season. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Gautam, M.R. and Acharya, K., 2011. Streamflow trends in Nepal. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 344–357. 相似文献
16.
Rainfall–runoff processes appear to be highly nonlinear in Bayinbluk watersheds of the northwestern China. In this study, the time‐scale wavelet transform has been used for the analysis of this nonstationary system. The Haar and Morlet wavelet transform were used to analyse the rainfall–runoff conversion relationship. Wavelet power spectrum and change point methods are also employed to analyse rainfall rates and runoffs measured at daily to half‐hourly sampling rate. The four experimental sites (Luoto, Haer, Kuce and Shengl) are located in the Tianshan Mountains (Xinjiang province, China). Correlation analysis and wavelet transform are first applied to runoff process in different underlying surfaces. Wavelet analyses of rainfall rates and runoffs also give meaningful information on the temporal variability of the rainfall–runoff relationship. Change point and wavelet power spectrum analysis provide simple interpretation of energy distribution between different scales. The results indicate that wavelet transform is a good method for analysing the nonlinear relationship of temporal–spatial responses between rainfall and runoff. This method allowed quantification of the processes affecting runoff and provided an insight into their implications in surface water management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):538-549
Abstract Trend analysis was performed on streamflow data for a collection of stations on the Canadian Prairies, in terms of spring and summer runoff volumes, peak flow rates and peak flow occurrences, as well as an annual volume measure, for analysis periods of 1966–2005, 1971–2005, and 1976–2005. The Mann-Kendall statistical test for trend and bootstrap resampling were used to identify the trends and to determine the field significance of the trends. Partial correlation analysis was used to identify relationships between hydrological variables that exhibit a significant trend and meteorological variables that exhibit a significant trend. Noteworthy results include decreasing trends in the spring snowmelt runoff event volume and peak flow, decreasing trends (earlier occurrence) in the spring snowmelt runoff event peak date and decreasing trends in the seasonal (1 March–31 October) runoff volume. These trends can be attributed to a combination of reductions in snowfall and increases in temperatures during the winter months. 相似文献
18.
AbstractIrrigation practice has increased considerably recently and will continue to increase to feed a growing population and provide better life standards worldwide. Numerous studies deal with the hydrological impacts of irrigation, but little is known about the temporal evolution of the affected variables. This work assesses the effects on a gully after irrigation was implemented in its hydrological basin (7.38 km2). Flow, electrical conductivity, nitrate concentration and exported loads of salts and nitrates were recorded in Lerma gully (Zaragoza, Spain) for eight hydrological years (2004–2011), covering the periods before, during and after implementation of irrigation. Non-parametric statistical analysis was applied to understand relationships and trends. The results showed the correlation of irrigation with flow and the load of salts and nitrates exported, although no significant relationship with precipitation was detected. The implementation of irrigation introduced annual trends in flow (3.2 L s-1, +23%), salinity (–0.38 mS cm-1, –9%), and nitrate concentration (5.4 mg L-1, +8%) in the gully. In addition, the annual loads of contaminants exported increased (salts and nitrates, 27.3 Mg km-2 year-1, +19%, and 263 kg NO3–-N km-2 year-1, +27%, respectively). The trends presented a strong seasonal pattern, with higher and more significant trends for the irrigation season. The changes observed were different from those of larger irrigation districts or regional basins, due to the differences in land use and irrigation management. It is important to understand these changes in order to achieve an adequate management of the environment and water resources.Editor Z.W. KundzewiczCitation Merchán, D., Causapé, J., and Abrahão, R., 2013. Impact of irrigation implementation on hydrology and water quality in a small agricultural basin in Spain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1400–1413. 相似文献
19.
André Gustavo da Silva Melo Honorato Gustavo Barbosa Lima da Silva Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(15-16):2060-2075
ABSTRACTCombinations of low-frequency components (also known as approximations) resulting from the wavelet decomposition are tested as inputs to an artificial neural network (ANN) in a hybrid approach, and compared to classical ANN models for flow forecasting for 1, 3, 6 and 12 months ahead. In addition, the inputs are rewritten in terms of the flow, revealing what type of information was being provided to the network, in order to understand the effect of the approximations on the forecasting performance. The results show that the hybrid approach improved the accuracy of all tested models, especially for 1, 3 and 6 months ahead. The input analyses show that high-frequency components are more important for shorter forecast horizons, while for longer horizons, they may worsen the model accuracy. 相似文献
20.
Jan F. Adamowski 《水文研究》2008,22(25):4877-4891
In this study, short‐term river flood forecasting models based on wavelet and cross‐wavelet constituent components were developed and evaluated for forecasting daily stream flows with lead times equal to 1, 3, and 7 days. These wavelet and cross‐wavelet models were compared with artificial neural network models and simple perseverance models. This was done using data from the Skrwa Prawa River watershed in Poland. Numerical analysis was performed on daily maximum stream flow data from the Parzen station and on meteorological data from the Plock weather station in Poland. Data from 1951 to 1979 was used to train the models while data from 1980 to 1983 was used to test the models. The study showed that forecasting models based on wavelet and cross‐wavelet constituent components can be used with great accuracy as a stand‐alone forecasting method for 1 and 3 days lead time river flood forecasting, assuming that there are no significant trends in the amplitude for the same Julian day year‐to‐year, and that there is a relatively stable phase shift between the flow and meteorological time series. It was also shown that forecasting models based on wavelet and cross‐wavelet constituent components for forecasting river floods are not accurate for longer lead time forecasting such as 7 days, with the artificial neural network models providing more accurate results. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献