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1.
Seismicity simulation with a mass-spring model and a displacement hardening-softening friction law 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Dieterich simulated aftershocks numerically, using a one-dimensional mass-spring model with a time-dependent friction law. But an important precursory phenomenon called quiescence cannot be produced by this model unless, as Mikumo and Miyatake showed with a three-dimensional continuum model, a somewhat arbitrary bimodal distribution of frictional strength is assumed. Here we used the friction law proposed by Stuart, which is a displacement hardening-softening model, and simulated the quiescence. By varying the parameters of the friction law in our mass-spring model, we found a variety of seismicity patterns. When we choose extremely large critical displacement we get a recurrent sequence of creep followed by mainshock without small earthquakes. But when we choose a critical displacement in the same order of magnitude as the slip-weakening critical displacement estimated by Papageorgiou and Aki from strong motion data, we get a normal seismicity pattern, including quiescence before large events. This simple model points to a promising approach for the interpretation of the rupture process during an earthquake by the same physical model. 相似文献
2.
The Stone Canyon earthquake sequence started during August 1982 and lasted for about four months. It contained four mainshocks withM
L
4, each with an aftershock zone about 4 km long. These mainshocks, progressing from southeast to northwest, ruptured a segment of the fault approximately 20 km long leaving two gaps, which were later filled by theM
L
=4.6 mainshocks of January 14, and May 31, 1986. The equivalent magnitude of the sequence isM
L
=5.0.Precursory seismic quiescence could be identified in: (1) the northernmost 10 km of the aftershock zone which contained three of the mainshocks; and (2) the southern gap in the aftershock zone. The fault segment containing the first mainshock and its aftershocks did not show quiescence. This pattern of precursory quiescence is very similar to two cases in Hawaii where the rupture initiation points of the mainshocks (M
S
=7.2 and 6.6, respectively) were located in volumes of constant seismicity rate, surrounded by volumes with pronounced precursory quiescence.The precursory quiescence before the August 1982 Stone Canyon earthquakes lasted for 76 weeks, amounted to a reduction in rate of about 60%, and could be recognized without any false alarms. That is, the anomaly was unique within the 60 km study segment of the fault and in the years 1975 through August 1982. Eighteen foreshocks occurred between July 27 and August 7, 1982. We conclude that the August 1982 mainshocks could have been predicted, based on seismic quiescence and foreshocks. 相似文献
3.
Seismicity gap near Oaxaca,southern Mexico as a probable precursor to a large earthquake 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Summary An area of significant seismic quiescence is found near Oaxaca, southern Mexico. The anomalous area may be the site of a future large earthquake as many cases so far reported were. This conjecture is justified by study of past seismicity changes in the Oaxaca region. An interval of reduced seismicity, followed by a renewal of activity, preceded both the recent large events of 1965 and 1968. Those past earthquakes have ruptured the eastern and western portions of the present seismicity gap, respectively, so that the central part remaining is considered to be of the highest risk of the pending earthquake.The most probable estimates are: 7 1/2±1/4 for the magnitude and =16.5°±0.5°N, =96.5°±0.5W for the epicenter location. A firm prediction of the occurrence time is not attempted. However, a resumption of seismic activity in the Oaxaca region may precede a main shock.On leave from the Marine Science Institute, University of Texas, USA. 相似文献
4.
The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock. 相似文献
5.
Mitiyasu Ohnaka 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1984,122(6):848-862
The Kanto earthquake (M=7.9) that occurred along the Sagami Trough in the Sagami Bay on 1 September 1923 was one of the most disastrous earthquakes in Japanese history. The Kanto area includes Metropolitan Tokyo and Yokohama which are densely populated, and hence it has been a matter of great concern, from the viewpoints of earthquake prediction and disaster prevention, whether or not the 1923 Kanto earthquake was preceded by precursory seismicity. A study using the most complete lists of earthquakes catalogued recently by Utsu and the Japan Meteorological Agency reveals that seismic activity in the Kanto area was appreciably higher before and after the Kanto earthquake, and that the Kanto earthquake was preceded by a sequence of anomalous seismic activity, quiescence, and foreshocks. Such higher activity before and after the Kanto earthquake is contrasted with low seismicity during the recent 30-year period. A model is proposed to explain the precursory seismic activity, subsequent quiescence, and foreshocks for the Kanto earthquake. In the model, the transition from precursory seismic activity to quiescence is ascribed to time-dependent fracture due to stress-aided corrosion. Foreshocks are related to an acceleration of premonitory slip shortly before the mainshock slip. 相似文献
6.
For some years, the Saxon Academy of Sciences at Leipzig (SAW) is engaged in the research project Contributions to Environmental Research by means of Radiometric-Geochemical Methods in the Vogtland area (Germany). The main goal is to investigate the hydrogeological and hydrochemical parameters of mineral springs in that region and their interrelations. Here, the high CO
2
degassing rates are of particular interest. The isotopic signature of these gases indicates an anomalous high mantle/crust contribution (Weinlich et al., 1999). A further geoscientifically important phenomenon of this region is the high seismicity, in particular the Vogtland/NW Bohemian earthquake swarms. Therefore, we have tried to use the mantle-originated fluids as transport media for information from the seismogenic horizons.
The variations of the parameters recorded continuously at the springs for years show a connection to the seismic events of the epicentral area of Nový Kostel in the Czech Republic. In particular, numerous anomalous degassing intervals were recorded at the mineral spring Wettinquelle (formerly: Radonquelle), Bad Brambach, prior to earthquakes occurred in the region of Nový Kostel. 相似文献
7.
Sergio G. Ferraes 《Journal of Seismology》2003,7(2):145-153
The use of probability distribution ofrecurrence times as described by theexponential, Weibull and Rayleihgprobability densities form the core of theprobabilistic seismic prediction analysispresented in this paper. Using these threeprobabilistic models we derive threeformulas to calculate the conditionalprobability P(t|t) than an earthquakeevent will occur in the time interval (t, t+ t), provide that it has not occurredin the elapsed time t since the last largeearthquake (M 6.4) in the Tokyo area.This paper proposes a new method toestimate the time interval t foroccurrence of a new large earthquake inTokyo area. This time interval is measuredafter the elapsed time (t) since the lastlarge earthquake. To do this we use thethree formulas for the conditionalprobability P(t|t) and the criterionof the maximum conditional probability ofearthquake occurrence.Using a list of historical earthquakeswhich have occurred in the Tokyo area asgiven by Usami (1976, pp. 235–243), wefound that: (1) Using the exponentialmodel, it is estimated that a highlydamaging earthquake magnitude M 6.4, mayoccur before the year 2009.50, orequivalently before June 2009; (2) Usingthe Weibull model, it is estimated that thedamaging earthquake (M 6.4) may occurbefore the year 2129.80, or equivalentlybefore October 2129. 相似文献
8.
青藏高原北部地区弱震空间图像特征与中短期地震预测方法 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
通过对青藏高原北部地区31次地震的研究,确定了震前地震活动图像的中短期预测指标以及中期向短期过渡的异常判据及预测方法。研究结果表明,中强地震前普遍存在地震空区、弱震条带、前兆地震或震群、地震活动增强和平静等异常图像,所表现出的异常时间存在很大的差异。具有中短期特征的弱震空区(段)和条带一般出现在震前1～3a,平均持续时间1a,在空区解体后1～6个月发生地震。大多数前兆地震或震群活动属于短临异常,一般出现在震前几天至6个月,震级差为1．0～2．3,距离震中5～60km,空间上主要集中在祁连山地震带。地震活动增强以应力集中为主,属于短期异常特征。异常图像在时间上表现为中期阶段以孕震空区、弱震条带、地震活动增强和平静等异常,异常比较显著且不同步;短临阶段出现前兆地震和地震空区停止活动而形成的临震前的相对平静。异常图像在空间上具有较明显的分区性,与区域活动构造有一定的关系。 相似文献
9.
系统梳理了2000年以来山西地区6次MS≥4.5地震前地震活动异常,结果表明,地震空区/平静、地震条带、显著地震/震群、大同地震窗“开窗”活动等异常在地震发生前具有一定普遍性,且异常基本围绕在震中及附近地区分布,特别是在地震平静/空区、地震条带等异常发展后期出现的显著地震/震群活动,对未来地震发生的地点和时间具有较好的预测意义。异常持续时间与发震间隔统计表明：异常多出现在主震发生前6个月以内,显著地震/震群、大同地震窗“开窗”对未来主震的发生具有短临预测意义。此外,随着区域应力水平的不断增强,在特定敏感地区会发生成组极微震密集活动,监视跟踪这些有别于正常活动背景的极微震活动,对地震短临预测具有一定意义。 相似文献
10.
Numerous cases of precursory seismic quiescence have been reported in recent years. Some investigators have interpreted these observations as evidence that seismic quiescence is a somewhat reliable precursor to moderate or large earthquakes. However, because failures of the pattern to predict earthquakes may not, in general, be reported, and because numerous earthquakes are not preceded by quiescence, the validity and reliability of the quiescence precursor have not been established.We have analyzed the seismicity rate prior to, and in the source region of, 37 shallow earthquakes (M 5.3–7.0) in central California and Japan for patterns of rate fluctuation, especially precursory quiescence. Nonuniformity in rate for these pre-mainshock sequences is relatively high, and numerous intervals with significant (p<0.10) extrema in rate are observed in some of the sequences. In other sequences, however, the rate remains within normal limits up to the time of the mainshock. Overall, in terms of an observational basis for intermediate-term earthquake prediction, no evidence is found in the cases studied for a systematic, widespread or reliable pattern of quiescence prior to the mainshocks.In earthquake sequences comprising full seismic cycles for 5 sets of (M 3.7–5.1) repeat earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Bear Valley, California, the seismicity rates are found to be uniform. A composite of the estimated rate fluctuations for the sequences, normalized to the length of the seismic cycle, reveals a weak pattern of a low rate in the first third of the cycle, and a high rate in the last few months. While these observations are qualitative, they may represent weak expressions of physical processes occurring in the source region over the seismic cycle.Re-examination of seismicity rate fluctuations in volumes along the creeping section of the San Andreas fault specified by Wyss and Burford (1985) qualitatively confirms the existence of low-rate intervals in volumes 361, 386, 382, 372 and 401. However, only the quiescence in volume 386 is found by the present study to be statistically significant. 相似文献
11.
12.
Precursory seismic quiescence 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
Seventeen cases of precursory seismic quiescence to mainshocks with magnitudes fromM
L=4.7 toM
S=8.0 are summarized. The amount of rate decrease ranges from 45% to 90%. The significance of these changes varies between 90% and 99.99%. The assumption that the background rate is approximately constant is fulfilled in most crustal volumes studied. All quiescence anomalies seem to have abrupt beginnings, and the rate during the anomalous period is fairly constant. The duration of the precursors ranges from 15 to 75 months, and it is not clear what factors determine that time. At least three successful predictions have been based on seismic quiescence. These cases have shown that mainshocks can be predicted based on quiescence, but they have also shown that the interpretation of the data in real time is difficult and nonunique. If a false alarm is defined as a period of quiescence with a significance level larger than a precursory quiescence in the same tectonic area, then we estimate, based on searches in four areas, that the false alarm rate may be on the order of 50%. Failure to predict may be expected in perhaps 50% of mainshocks, even in carefully monitored areas. Quiescence cannot be used as a precursor in tectonic environments with low seismic activity. Most characteristics of the phenomenon are still poorly defined, but data exist which probably permit at least a doubling of the presently available data on case histories. 相似文献
13.
Through a detailed analysis of seismicity at the base of the transition zone, we obtain an updated value of the maximum reliable depth of confirmed seismicity, we investigate regional variation in the maximum depth of seismicity among those Wadati-Benioff zones which reach the bottom of the transition zone, and we attempt to quantify the maximum possible rate of seismic release in the lower mantle compatible with the failure to detect even a single event since the advent of modern seismological networks. We classify deep subduction zones into three groups: those whose seismicity does not reach beyond 620 km, those whose seismicity appears to terminate around 650–660 km, and Tonga-Kermadec (and the Vityaz cluster) whose seismicity extends to 685–690 km. We suggest that the depth extent of seismicity is controlled by the depth of the pv + mw transition responsible for the 660-km seismic discontinuity, which is deflected to greater depths in cold slabs than in warmer ones. We note that this transition marks the depth below which thermal perturbation of phase transitions no longer generates buoyancy anomalies and their large attendant down-dip compressive stresses and below which strain energy generated by other mechanisms may not accumulate to seismogenic levels due to superplastic weakness in fine-grained materials. We find that the maximum level of seismic activity in the lower mantle must be at least three orders of magnitude less than that observed in the transition zone. 相似文献
14.
2021年5月21日漾濞发生MS 6.4地震,震前地震活动异常明显,中长期阶段云南地区3级地震活动水平较低,滇西北地区出现长达456天的4级地震平静;短临阶段震中区附近出现3—4级地震条带;临震阶段中小地震活动由外围地区开始向震中区迁移,震中区出现直接前震。 相似文献
15.
An attempted use of seismic gap observations to predict a large earthquake in Oaxaca, Mexico is discussed. The observations were initially published in a scientific journal and were subsequently distorted by noncientists, who predicted a major earthquake and tsunami to take place at Pinotepa Nacional, Oaxaca on 23 April 1978. Public reactions and property losess sustained by individuals and communities were comparable to those expected from an actual earthquake. A revision of epicenter locations from the NOAA data file revealed that a number of earthquakes did occur in the alleged gap but had been excluded because their reported focal depth was in excess of 60 km. It is shown that the probability that the number of earthquakes in two consecutive time intervals of a stationary Poisson process differs by an amount which would be reported as a seismic gap is of the order of 5% or more for Oaxaca. This means that spurious seismic gaps would be observed in one out of 20 data runs. The possibility of detecting a true interval of abnormal quiescence in a random earthquake sequence appears to be fairly remote in this case. 相似文献
16.
¶rt;naa, m ma um uu maunuu m am muu ¶rt;uauu um. nua a mau ammama a, n¶rt; mnu ma u u au uu u¶rt;mu. 相似文献
17.
Vladimír Tobyáš Jaroslav Fiedler Dana Knaislová Dana Procházková Reviewer I. Pšenčík 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1985,29(1):68-74
Summary The effectiveness of recording seismic phenomena in the Kruné hory (Mts.) region in NW Bohemia by selected stations in the CSR, GDR and Poland has been estimated. Magnitude isolines of the weakest earthquakes, which can be localized and detected with an 0.9 probability, were calculated on the basis of the level of seismic disturbances at the individual stations and of the empirical dependence of the attenuation of seismic waves with distance.
a a mum umauu uu u amu ¶rt; ana¶rt; uu uau mauu a mumuu , u a a uu n a m¶rt; mau u nuu auumu amau uu m amu u auma uuuu aum¶rt; a a mu, m mm 0.9 auuam u aum.相似文献
18.
Karel Pěč Jana Pěčová Oldřich Praus Reviewer M. Hvoždara 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1988,32(4):368-391
Summary The theory of methods of computing single- and inter-station transfer functions in both the spectral and time domains was developed in paper[1]. Both approaches are applied to the variation data recorded at field stations along two non-simultaneous profiles traversing the eastern margin of the Bohemian Massif, where a zone of anomalous induction seems to mark an important geological boundary of formations with different histories of development. The results of both analyses are found to coincide within reasonable bounds of 20–30% in the principal induction characteristics.
u m¶rt; ama ¶rt;-u -mau n¶rt;am u nma u am a ua am[1]. am nua m am a n¶rt;¶rt;a nu ¶rt; aaua ¶rt;aaum auau aumua a n mau ¶rt; u nu, nau m au aua,¶rt; aa a aa u¶rt;uu. a, u¶rt;u, mamau a¶rt;a ¶rt; ¶rt; ¶rt;uuau au umuu aumu. mam aau nma u am auam a 20–30% ¶rt; u¶rt;u naam.相似文献
19.
20.
Michal Baťka 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1991,35(2):109-124
Summary The CHMI LAOFM is used in the daily routine of the Central Forecasting Office of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and some special results are transmitted to the regional offices. The model works in the region of Europe and the North Atlantic, uses conservative finite difference schemes and two types of semi-implicit schemes that allow effective model structurization in terms of programming language. The basic philosophy of the model is described.
¶rt; a zau mumuu unm zumzu umumm () ¶rt; z uz nza. m mam ¶rt;a zu nzam am amuu. z amam amu n u amu mamuz aa, un am , a a aa au. ama aum mu auau z n- , ma cam m nm a auuam mmauau nza. mam nuaa u u auauu.相似文献