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1.
Mohamed Al-shalabi Lawal Billa Biswajeet Pradhan Shattri Mansor Abubakr A. A. Al-Sharif 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(1):425-437
An effective and efficient planning of an urban growth and land use changes and its impact on the environment requires information about growth trends and patterns amongst other important information. Over the years, many urban growth models have been developed and used in the developed countries for forecasting growth patterns. In the developing countries however, there exist a very few studies showing the application of these models and their performances. In this study two models such as cellular automata (CA) and the SLEUTH models are applied in a geographical information system (GIS) to simulate and predict the urban growth and land use change for the City of Sana’a (Yemen) for the period 2004–2020. GIS based maps were generated for the urban growth pattern of the city which was further analyzed using geo-statistical techniques. During the models calibration process, a total of 35 years of time series dataset such as historical topographical maps, aerial photographs and satellite imageries was used to identify the parameters that influenced the urban growth. The validation result showed an overall accuracy of 99.6 %; with the producer’s accuracy of 83.3 % and the user’s accuracy 83.6 %. The SLEUTH model used the best fit growth rule parameters during the calibration to forecasting future urban growth pattern and generated various probability maps in which the individual grid cells are urbanized assuming unique “urban growth signatures”. The models generated future urban growth pattern and land use changes from the period 2004–2020. Both models proved effective in forecasting growth pattern that will be useful in planning and decision making. In comparison, the CA model growth pattern showed high density development, in which growth edges were filled and clusters were merged together to form a compact built-up area wherein less agricultural lands were included. On the contrary, the SLEUTH model growth pattern showed more urban sprawl and low-density development that included substantial areas of agricultural lands. 相似文献
2.
Peter M. Townroe 《Geoforum》1984,15(3):335-347
The prospects for economic growth among the developing countries of the world over the next two decades are not as promising as the experience of the last two decades. Aspects of the current world economic environment have implications for the pattern of urban growth in developing nations, and hence for the role of spatial policies. This paper outlines the U.N. projections for the growth of urban populations in the world. It then reviews the current external economic situation of the developing countries, faced by world economic recession and high levels of international indebtedness, before considering some of the implications of this situation for urban growth. 相似文献
3.
随着我国社会经济的发展和城市化进程的加速,我国大城市土地资源变得紧缺。各要素的高度集聚出现各种矛盾,城市空间容量供需矛盾日益突出,使得地下空间开发的需求日趋明显,这也为城市地下空间开发带来机遇,但同时也面临种种挑战。本文从目前政策法规、开发现状及用途等存在问题入手,结合国外发达国家地下空间开发模式,提出我国城市地下空间健康发展的解决之道,以此展望我国城市地下空间发展前景。 相似文献
4.
近40 a来基于低分辨率遥感数据和GIS的全球城市时空变化研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
近几十年来, 全球生态系统、气候和生物多样性已不同程度受到人口快速增长和城市持续扩张带来的负面影响. 使用低分辨率遥感影像数据和GIS技术定量分析了近40 a全球城市时空变化. 世界数字化图(Digital Chart of the World, DCW)城市图层代表1960年至1970年的全球城市面积, 利用MODIS影像数据、稳定夜间光数据和城市格网人口密度数据编制的全球土地覆盖数据城市图(Global Land Cover by National Mapping Organization, GLCNMO)代表2003年时的全球城市面积. 计算了1960年和2003年全球城市的城市用地比重和年城市增长率指数, 从区域尺度、国家尺度和单个城市尺度分析了全球城市扩展的时空变化过程. 结果表明: 在1960年代发达国家城市面积较大, 而发展中国家城市面积小得多; 到2003年发展中国家有相当大的变化, 新增长的城市区域快速扩大. 近40 a来发展中国家城市区域发展速度远快于发达国家, 与欧洲和北美国家相比, 发展中国家城市结构更紧凑和密集. 相似文献
5.
Reinhard Wießner 《GeoJournal》1999,49(1):43-51
The aim of this paper is to analyse the main characteristics of post-socialist urban development in East Germany, especially
the differences compared to urban development in other East and Central European countries. In spite of the many similar problems
and processes in urban development, specific features of East Germany are characterised by the rapid growth of suburbia, especially
in the first phase of transition, by the proceeding activities of urban renewal and revitalisation, and by a lower level of
social polarisation and socio-spatial segregation as compared to other post-socialist countries. Important conditions for
urban development in East Germany exist in special support programmes, high subsidies and other financial transfers as well
as in engaged planning conceptions of the local authorities.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
6.
The study addresses population dynamics in Ghana on the urban and regional levels between 1984 and 2000. At the urban level,
the development trends are analyzed for urban localities (population above 5,000) on the basis of geo-coded census data. Potential
driving forces for rapid population growth related to size, location, accessibility and facility counts are examined using
bivariate and multivariate analysis. An index of weighted accessibility relative to other urban localities provides significant
explanation at the national level, as does initial locality size. At the regional level, population development is analyzed
to provide insight into the rural–urban relations. The level of urbanization is steadily increasing but varies considerably
between regions. Areas of high population growth are found in some rural areas that have a remote location relative to the
large urban centers. This seems to indicate the existence of ‘frontier’ regions, i.e. areas that experience a high degree
of in-migration by people aiming to undertake specific farming activities. A high proportion of the population growth in these
areas appears to take place in relatively small towns. The paper concludes with a more in-depth discussion of the development
characteristics of Ghana’s Western Region. This region has experienced one of the highest regional population growth rates,
mainly due to its status as a ‘frontier’ for cocoa production.
相似文献
| Lasse Moller-JensenEmail: |
7.
Peter M. Townroe 《Geoforum》1984,15(2):143-165
The Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area is the second largest urban centre in terms of population among the developing countries of the world. The federal and state government authorities responsible for planning urban development in the State of Sao Paulo in Brazil have been actively considering whether to advocate a new policy initiative to decentralise manufacturing industry from the metropolitan area as a further strategy to restrain future growth. This paper discusses the particular situation facing policy-makers in Sao Paulo in the mid-eighties, as well as using the Sao Paulo policy problem to illustrate a number of themes of relevance to all would-be large city restraint strategies in developing nations. The paper draws upon a programme of research undertaken in the World Bank between 1980 and 1982; in particular, on a large industrial survey of companies establishing in new locations during 1977–1979 in the State. The policy recommendations are cautious, given continuing levels of ambiguity in policy objectives and of uncertainty in the pattern of underlying market forces. 相似文献
8.
The growth of medium sized towns (with a population ranging from 20,000 to less than 100,000) in India was subjected to a detailed analysis. The basic premise was that growth behaviour of this group of towns, rather of cities or small towns, was a sensitive index to decentralisation of the urban process as well as to a balanced development of a region.It was discovered that growth rate of these towns was not just moderate; it was moderate to rapid. This signified that medium sized towns were more akin to cities than to small towns in respect of growth pattern.Among the various factors affecting growth, location of these towns in a particular region was discerned as more critical than their functions or relative size. Their growth was distinctly fast in areas with comparatively low population density, wide spacing of towns and new developmental activities. Here these towns were generally the biggest in their subregional context. The growth behaviour of medium sized towns did confirm dispersal of urbanisation but lack of any consistent relationship between their growth rate and development level of different areas was not in conformity with the hypothesis. 相似文献
9.
中国城市发展中的地质环境问题 总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15
本文在研究我国城市地质环境背景和主要地质环境问题的基础上，运用多层次动态系统方法，提出了协调城市人类工程活动和地质环境的对策。 相似文献
10.
This paper examines the distribution characteristics of urban settlements in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through major dimensions such as settlement regularly, degree of primacy and polarisation at the national and geographic regional levels. The paper points out that the settlement pattern at the national level has transformed from a primate distribution during the pre-plan period (< 1970) to an intermediary distribution during the period of development planning (1970 >). At the geographical regional level the settlement distribution, however, has shown diverse pattern. While the regional settlement distribution of Western and Eastern Region have shown trends of increasing polarisation, settlements in the Northern and Southern Regions are more log-normal in character. This is explained by the increasing growth of small and intermediary towns in the Northern and Southern Regions. The paper concludes that the national trend of decreasing urban primacy, induced by the decentralised national development strategies, is less pronounced due to the absence of a balanced regional investment policy. Since the government expenditure and settlement population growth rates are not related, slow growing primate cities continue to receive a larger share of public expenditure, enabling them to retain their primacy. This calls for a balanced regional investment policy to fully realise the national strategy of regional balance and multi-polar settlement pattern. 相似文献
11.
George D. Bathrellos Kalliopi Gaki-Papanastassiou Hariklia D. Skilodimou Dimitrios Papanastassiou Konstantinos G. Chousianitis 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(2):537-548
During the planning of an urban environment, usually only economic and social parameters are taken into account. As a result,
urban areas are susceptible to natural disasters, which cause extensive damages in them, because the cities or towns have
been repeatedly located in vulnerable areas. In this study, for the protection of human environment, is proposed a unique
approach of urban planning and sustainable development. The study area is Trikala Prefecture (Western Thessaly, Central Greece).
An integrated evaluation of the suitable areas for urban growth and light industry development is proposed by using mainly
natural hazards as well as geological–geomorphological–geographical characteristics of the study area. The used parameters
were correlated by using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method and incorporated into a geographic information system
(GIS) in order to produce the corresponding suitability maps. The study area is classified in five categories of very high,
high, moderate, low, and very low suitability for urban growth and industrial development. Moreover, the spatio-temporal changes
of the urban limits are studied since 1885 for the three major towns (Trikala, Kalambaka and Pyli) of the study area. These
changes sketch out the urban growth trend. The comparison between the urban growth trend with the potential suitability for
urban growth and industrial development of these towns lead to discrepancies. These can be attributed mainly to the fact that
in the majority of cases, only geographical, social, and economical factors were used for urban development, whereas in our
study, natural hazards, geomorphological, and geographical parameters were quantified and taken into account. 相似文献
12.
《Geoforum》2015
Urban sprawl in South America has for many decades been driven by the housing debate, with major impact on overall urban development. The impact of uncontrolled expansion has been social, economic and environmental degradation to high rates of poverty, poor services and transport. The presence of undeveloped areas within suburban landscapes, such as former infrastructural facilities, obsolete airports, and abandoned train stations, contribute to the impetus to reclaimed and revamped land. These spaces also trigger political aspirations for implementing better practices on “smart” growth, sustainable development and urban regeneration principles. A case in point is the former airport ‘Aeropuerto Cerrillos’ in Santiago, Chile, which closed in 2001 after years of decay; it intended to replace and host a large-scale urban project called ‘Ciudad Parque Bicentenario’. This development is still incomplete and describes a series of pressures on a planning system traditionally adjusted to promote expansion confirming that urban sprawl is still an open agenda triggered by the presence of diverse unexpected urban gaps. 相似文献
13.
Keith D. Harries 《Geoforum》1985,16(1):73-83
High homicide rates constitute a major public health problem in the United States. In the South high rates have been historically conspicuous, and have contributed to the elevated level in the U.S. compared to other countries at a comparable stage of development. This research illustrates the historical persistence of homicide in the South and presents a regionalization of U.S. states based on their quinquennial homicide profiles since 1935. Several social indicators are plotted against trends in lethal violence for the homicide regions. The analysis suggests a pattern of rates declining away from a core region in Alabama and Georgia, and some convergence between the high rates of the South and the increasing rates of other regions. Southern homicide rates remain high in spite of suggestions that cultural differences between the South and other regions have eroded to insignificance. 相似文献
14.
The world has been undergoing a remarkable process of urbanization, especially in developing countries in recent years. The urbanization process has brought about great urban development and large population agglomeration, changes in production and lifestyle, and man-made disturbances such as greenhouse gas and pollution emissions. As the global urbanization process continues to advance, its impact on climate change continues to strengthen significantly. This paper mainly reviewed and summarized relevant researches from two aspects: the influence of urbanization on climate change and the mechanism of influence of urbanization on climate change. Urbanization causes regional warming and urban heat island effect, extreme events such as high temperature, heat wave and heavy rainfall increase in frequency, and also leads to increased urban flood risk. The increase of pollutant emission in the process of urbanization is the main cause of air quality deterioration. Urbanization also has an indirect impact on air quality by changing urban climate. Urbanization has an important impact on climatic factors such as relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine and cloud cover. The impacts of urbanization on climate change are mainly realized through underlying surface changes, greenhouse gas and pollution emissions, anthropogenic heat emissions and urban high heat capacity. Urbanization not only directly affects the regional/local climate, but also indirectly affects the regional/local climate by promoting global climate change. Therefore, the impact of urbanization on climate change has a global and regional multi-scale superposition effect. 相似文献
15.
Giok-Ling Ooi 《GeoJournal》1995,36(4):337-344
Regional economic cooperation is being re-considered in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Brunei. The political leadership in each of the member countries appearsto have recognised that regional integration of their economies hold out better prospects for economic competitiveness and sustained growth. The diversity among the ASEAN states however, explains the mixed reaction to development schemes that have been premised on regional cooperation and economic integration. It is the paradox that while difference among the ASEAN countries account for some of the toughest competition faced by the region's newly industrialising economies, these differences have also been the reason behind integration and cooperation. This paper examines the growth triangle arrangement initiated by the government of Singapore and involving the Riau Islands in Indonesia and the state of Johor in the neighbouring country of Malaysia. The spatial and economic impact of Indonesia-Malaysia-Singapore Growth Triangle, as it is now officially called, is discussed. In spite of the addition of more growth triangles which have been identified following on this pioneering effort in the region, the discussion will highlight the limits to such cooperation at least, among the newly industrializing economies in the region. 相似文献
16.
Road traffic accidents pose serious threats to human lives and often cause premature deaths, disabilities, and socioeconomic impacts. The objective of this study is to analyze the fatal road traffic accidents in Bangladesh by performing a space–time characterization of fatality rates involving an innovative newspaper-based method in concert with gridded population data to construct a road traffic fatality database. Kernel density estimation, temporal data plots and space–time pattern mining tools that combine the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic with the Mann–Kendall test are used to describe spatio-temporal hotspots/coldspots and trends. Results show different patterns between the urban and rural areas of Bangladesh and higher rates of road traffic accidents occur in the metropolitan regions (Dhaka) and in a northern region centered on Sirajganj area. Most of the road traffic accidents took place in between 9:00 and 12:00 pm while the accident rates remain low between 12:00 and 3:00 am. Spacetime analysis results reveal a core region of persistently high rates along with four smaller regions with high and intensifying rates. The output of this study could be useful to reduce road traffic fatalities, injuries, increase awareness, and adopt necessary interventions for public safety through integrating both the local, regional, and central level decision makers of public transportation policy and issues in Bangladesh. The approach has potential to be translated to other developing countries. 相似文献
17.
Dr. Jacob O. Maos 《GeoJournal》1977,1(4):29-35
Conclusion Despite its uniqueness, the vitality inherent in the rural structure of Israel is of particular interest to other developing regions with a predominant rural-agricultural population. Latin American countries, for example, are investing considerable resources in the development of new lands through construction of penetration roads and other infrastructure. Several countries have created regional development authorities; some have policies designed to attract private investments into virgin areas.13) The general emphasis tends increasingly toward state-initiated and planned settlement, often in conjuction with agrarian reform programs — an approach dictated both by economic efficiency and welfare criteria.Past experience has shown that the rural population has to be organized in viable communities in order to become amenable to economic and cultural integration. Communities must likewise be spatially organized in an optimal way that will make it possible to provide them with amenities and so direct their production for the purpose of achieving economic status. At the same time, maximum flexibility must be preserved to fit varying developmental stages, since physical plans once carried into effect are extremely difficult to modify.In order to reduce the social and economic pull of existing urban centers it may be advisable to develop new settlement areas as self-sufficient enclaves, independent to some extent from the facilities existing in the region. The settlements would share the national infrastructure of communications and public services, but would gear their production to regional as well as extra-regional demand, bypassing the traditional local market place. Then, as the new communities consolidate as social and economic entities, the options for collaboration or competition with existing central places can be laid open on a more equitable basis.Admittedly such sheltered development may affect the role of the local intermediary and lessen the commercial activities of the urban sector, but it would also stimulate the development of an independent framework of handling, marketing, and an increasing degree of processing the settlements' produce. These complementary activities would help to retain part of the added value of the production and generate new sources of employment for successive village generations. The delay in the growth for the region's total output may well be worthwhile for achieving that social and economic transformation which in turn may lead to a more balance and sustained development of the entire region.14) 相似文献
18.
《Geoforum》1987,18(1):89-101
This article analyses, both theoretically and empirically, the process of agglomeration associated with the most basic components of regional development. The growth of these basic components, denoted as ‘condensation nuclei’ and ‘growth nuclei’, are evidence of the power of forces of ‘planning from below’, working for development through local initiative or by attracting private investors and public institutions to a previously undeveloped region. The formation of the growth nuclei is likened to the formation of crystals in a saturated solution. Opportunities for growth of any new activity in a virgin region is tied to the accumulation of entrepreneurial and financial resources. Only when these reach the point of saturation will the developmental effort be crowned with success, and will new institutions and factories be established in the region. Resources then must be earmarked to ensure that the new initiatives are firmly established, and thus their presence lowers the ‘concentration’ of the solution. Therefore, the creation of additional initiatives slows down, or is halted altogether. According to this model, the growth rate will increase only after developmental pressures have accumulated sufficiently to push the region once again to the point of saturation. In contrast, however, to the chemical mechanism which usually operates in a closed system, the mechanism of growth nuclei formation operates in an open system, thus permitting leakages of human and financial resources. The development of growth nuclei were studied in four locations in the Israeli Negev region. In each of these locations, an incubation period for the idea, a certain resource which had reached the point of saturation and varying rates in the establishment of additional enterprises were found to exist. 相似文献
19.
西北干旱区城市土地利用变化及其区域生态环境效应——以甘肃河西地区为例 总被引：57，自引：0，他引：57
基于高分辨率土地利用/土地覆盖数据,本文对1985～2000年期间河西地区城市土地利用变化的区域生态环境效应进行了定量分析,结果表明:1)1985～2000年期间河西地区总体生态环境质量在一定程度上维持着相对稳定,但生态环境质量改善和恶化的两种趋势并存,并在县级行政单元上表现出明显的区域分异特征,城市用地变化对区域生态环境的影响总体而言不显著;2)整个河西地区城市用地增长缓慢,表明其城市化进程缓慢.与城市用地变化有关的土地利用类型也多分布在金昌、嘉峪关、张掖、武威和酒泉5个地级市所在地区,表明这些区域的城市化过程相对活跃;3)城市用地变化对生态环境影响的空间规律表现为:使生态环境原本较差的地区生态环境质量有所增加,而使生态环境质量较好的地区生态环境质量降低;4)城镇用地与工矿用地对区域生态环境的影响表现出与城市用地总体基本一致的规律,但农村居民点则对生态环境正、负两方面影响都较为显著;5)城市用地扩展对区域生态环境的影响也体现出与城市用地总体类似的区域分异特征;而城市用地收缩的影响则与此趋势相反. 相似文献
20.
Using GIS for analysis of urban systems 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Guoqing Du 《GeoJournal》2000,52(3):213-221
It is recognized that the spatial organization of urban system can be abstracted as three main components: a set of points,
which describes the structural characteristics such as social and economic properties of individual city; a set of lines,
which indicates the patterns of interaction among the cities; a set of spheres, which indicates how and to which extent each
city affects the area around it. Even if such substance of urban system coincides with the main purpose of GIS for spatial
or geometric data types such as point, line and region, little attention has been given to this point. By an evidence analysis
of China, the application of potential analytical capabilities of GIS for urban system is attempted in this study. We find
GIS acts as an efficient tool not only for the spatial structure analysis of urban system, which including potential distribution
of cities, extraction of principal linkages among cities, and delimitation of subsystems; but also for the verification of
socio-economic attributes and dynamics of urban system.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献