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1.
This study investigated the changes of high temperature events during important growing period of rice (graining filling to maturity) of 2021-2050 due to climate change. Future climate scenarios were HadGEM2-ES simulation with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission pathways. Relationship between high temperature and yield change was established from historical weather and field observations during 1981-2009 period. The impacts of high temperatures on China’s rice production up to 2050 were assessed by applying deduced regression models to climate scenarios. Key messages drawn from this exercise include: ①High temperature event exhibited gradual increase from 2021 to 2050 under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, characterized by increased number of high temperature days (HSD), rising accumulated temperature with Tmax greater than 35 ℃ (HDD), and increased lasting days of high temperature (CHD). The HSD and HDD increased substantially in double rice cropping system of South China, single rice cropping system of Yangtze River Basin and rice area of Northeast China. ②High temperature hotspot was located near the border between Hunan and Hubei during 1961-2000, and might move towards northeast in the period of 2021-2050. ③Except the Northeast, China’s rice production suffered most from increased HDD during grain filling to maturity, indicated by significant negative and linear relationship between yield and HDD, whereas rice in Northeast China was subject to the increase of SDD during grain filling to maturity, with a significant and quadratic relationship between the yield and SDD. ④Compared to the high temperature risks during 1961-1990, climate change would increase the risks in majority of the rice area, especially in Hubei and Anhui-the central portion of Yangtze River Basin rice area, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan-south China double rice area, and south part of Northeast China single rice area. 相似文献
2.
Weili Duan Bin He Kaoru Takara Pingping Luo Daniel Nover Maochuan Hu 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(14):490
Evidence for climate change impacts on the hydro-climatology of Japan is plentiful. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydro-climatology of the upper Ishikari River basin, Hokkaido, Japan. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was set up, calibrated, and validated for the hydrological modeling of the study area. The Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 was used to downscale the large-scale Hadley Centre Climate Model 3 Global Circulation Model A2 and B2 scenarios data into finer scale resolution. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the SDSM-downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to run the calibrated SWAT model for the three future periods: 2030s (2020–2039), 2060s (2050–2069), and 2090s (2080–2099). The period 1981–2000 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that the average annual maximum temperature might increase by 1.80 and 2.01, 3.41 and 3.12, and 5.69 and 3.76 °C, the average annual minimum temperature might increase by 1.41 and 1.49, 2.60 and 2.34, and 4.20 and 2.93 °C, and the average annual precipitation might decrease by 5.78 and 8.08, 10.18 and 12.89, and 17.92 and 11.23% in 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for A2a and B2a emission scenarios, respectively. The annual mean streamflow may increase for the all three future periods except the 2090s under the A2a scenario. Among them, the largest increase is possibly observed in the 2030s for A2a scenario, up to approximately 7.56%. Uncertainties were found within the GCM, the downscaling method, and the hydrological model itself, which were probably enlarged because only one single GCM (HaDCM3) was used in this study. 相似文献
3.
Satiprasad Sahoo Anirban Dhar Anupam Debsarkar Amlanjyoti Kar 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(9):341
The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990–2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework. 相似文献
4.
Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia, as the top rice production area of high quality and quantity, has a long history in rice planting. The studies of the effective measures for the rice production replying the climate change were very important for reducing the harm of the future climate change and crop supply safety in Ningxia Province. Based on the coupling of the PRECIS model and the crop model CERES Rice, the effects of climate change on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province were simulated and evaluated, and the adaptability measures of rice production were studied. The results showed that the CERES Rice model had the preferable simulation capability, and the modified PRECIS model also could preferably simulate the required climate parameter. The crop model simulation results showed that the climate change had some influence on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District. The rice production goes down under future climate change scenarios in Ningxia Province. The trend of reduction of 2050s is more apparent than that of 2020s under the same scenarios,but the spatial change trend is similar. The extent and range of reduction of A2 scenario are wider than that of B2 scenario in the same period, but spatial change trend is different. For the change of growth stage, there has no obvious change in the north and the central part of the Yinhuang Irrigation District. The duration in 2050s shortens more obviously than that of 2020s under the same scenario, and the duration under B2 scenario shortens more obviously than that under A2 scenario in the same period. The results of adjusting the sowing date and the rice variety parameter G4 showed that the negative impact of climate change on the rice production can be reduced by sowing date advance in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province. There has obvious difference for the optimal G4 values of different region in Yinhuang Irrigation District, and the rice production can also be effectively upraised by adjusting the rice variety characteristic and cultivating the heat resistant rice varieties. The optimal G4 values can mitigate the damage of climate change on the rice production in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province. 相似文献
5.
Mitja Janža 《Natural Hazards》2013,67(3):1025-1043
According to climate change projections, the Alps will be one of the most affected regions in Europe. A basis for adaptation measures to climate changes is the quantification of the impact. This study investigates the impact of projected climate change on the hydrological cycle in the Upper So?a River basin. It is based on the use of climate model data as input for hydrological modelling. The climatic input data used were generated by a global climate model (IPCC A1B emission scenario) and downscaled for local use. Hydrological modelling was performed using the distributed hydrological model MIKE SHE. The simulated impact was quantified by comparing results of the hydrological modelling for the control period (1971–2000) and different scenario periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100). The climate projections show an increase in the average temperature (+0.9, +2.3, +3.8°C) and negligible changes in average precipitation amounts in the scenario periods. More distinctive are changes in the temporal pattern of mean monthly values (up to +5.2°C and ±45% for precipitation), which result in warmer and wetter winters and hotter and drier summers in the scenario periods. The projected rise in temperature is reflected in the increased actual evapotranspiration, the reduction of snow amount and summer groundwater recharge. Changes of monthly and period average discharges follow the trends of the meteorological variables. Changes in precipitation patterns have a major influence on the projected hydrological cycle and are the most important source of uncertainty. Estimated extreme flows indicated increased hazards related to floods, especially in the near-future scenario period, while in the far future scenario period, distinctive drought conditions are projected. 相似文献
6.
Kourgialas Nektarios N. Koubouris Georgios C. Karatzas George P. Metzidakis Ioannis 《Natural Hazards》2016,83(1):65-81
In this work, a dynamic GIS modeling approach is presented that incorporates: a) geoinformatic techniques, b) 55-year historical meteorological data, and c) field measurements, in order to estimate soil erosion risk in intensively cultivated regions. The proposed GIS-based modeling approach includes the estimation of soil erosion rates due to surface water flow under current and future climate change scenarios A2 and B1 for the years 2030 and 2050. The soil erosion was estimated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The proposed soil erosion model was validated using field measurements at different sites of the study area. The results show that an extended part of the study area is under intense erosion with the mean annual loss to be 4.85 t/ha year−1. Moreover, an increase in rainfall intensity, especially for scenario B1, can generate a significant increase (32.44 %) in soil loss for the year 2030 and a much more (50.77 %) for the year 2050 in comparison with the current conditions. Regarding the scenario A2, a slight decrease (1.85 %) in soil loss was observed for the year 2030, while for 2050 the results show an adequate increase (7.31 %) in comparison with the present. All these approaches were implemented at one of the most productive agricultural areas of Crete in Greece dominated by olive and citrus crops.
相似文献7.
气候变化情景下青藏高原多年冻土活动层厚度变化预测 总被引：19，自引：11，他引：8
在人类活动和气候变暖的共同影响下, 浅层多年冻土近地表和活动层的热状况会发生显著的变化, 从而对生态环境、 水文、 工程等产生较大的影响. 以A1B, A2, B1气候变化情景模式为基础, 运用Stefan公式计算和预测了青藏高原多年冻土区活动层厚度的变化特征. 结果表明: 以羌塘盆地为中心, 青藏高原多年冻土活动层厚度向其四周不断增加, 多年冻土活动层厚度随着气温升高而增加. A1B 、 A2模式下活动层厚度变化大, 相对人类活动强度较小的B1模式活动层厚度变化较小. 到2050年时, A1B情景活动层厚度平均约为3.07 m, 相对于2010年活动层厚度约增加0.3~0.8 m; B1情景活动层厚度增加0.2~0.5 m; A2情景增加0.2~0.55 m. 到2099年, A1B情景活动层的平均厚度将约为3.42 m; A2情景将可达3.53 m; B1情景将可达2.93 m. 气候变暖将可能加深活动层, 百年后将大范围改变多年冻土的空间分布. 相似文献
8.
选择长江中下游单季中稻为研究对象,结合45个气象站1961~2010年逐日气象资料,基于统计降尺度模型(SDSM),生成HadCM3气候模式A2和B2两种情景下各站点参考作物腾发量和降水数据。基于联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)推荐的作物系数法,并考虑有效性降雨和不同地区深层渗漏量,分析历史和未来的水稻灌溉需水时空变化特征。结果表明:过去50年,除了太湖流域以外的长江中下游大部分区域的参考作物腾发量和水稻需水量都呈显著下降趋势,而显著下降的水稻灌溉需水量主要位于鄱阳湖流域;未来两种情景下,参考作物腾发量、水稻需水量和水稻灌溉需水量均值都呈下降趋势,但水稻灌溉需水量降幅最小;水稻需水量和水稻灌溉需水量在长江中下游地区的变化趋势具有明显的空间异质性,水稻需水量大幅减少的区域由太湖流域向汉江和洞庭湖流域扩展。未来水稻灌溉需水量减少的区域主要分布在太湖流域、汉江流域东部和洞庭湖流域北部,并随时间推移呈扩大趋势。 相似文献
9.
Climate change, particularly due to the changed precipitation trend, can have a severe impact on soil erosion. The effect is more pronounced on the higher slopes of the Himalayan region. The goal of this study was to estimate the impact of climate change on soil erosion in a watershed of the Himalayan region using RUSLE model. The GCM (general circulation model) derived emission scenarios (HadCM3 A2a and B2a SRES) were used for climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to downscale the precipitation for three future periods, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099, at large scale. Rainfall erosivity (R) was calculated for future periods using the SDSM downscaled precipitation data. ASTER digital elevation model (DEM) and Indian Remote Sensing data – IRS LISS IV satellite data were used to generate the spatial input parameters required by RUSLE model. A digital soil-landscape map was prepared to generate spatially distributed soil erodibility (K) factor map of the watershed. Topographic factors, slope length (L) and steepness (S) were derived from DEM. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the satellite data was used to represent spatial variation vegetation density and condition under various land use/land cover. This variation was used to represent spatial vegetation cover factor. Analysis revealed that the average annual soil loss may increase by 28.38, 25.64 and 20.33% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively under A2 scenario, while under B2 scenario, it may increase by 27.06, 25.31 and 23.38% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, from the base period (1985–2013). The study provides a comprehensive understanding of the possible future scenario of soil erosion in the mid-Himalaya for scientists and policy makers. 相似文献
10.
Yingdong Yu Jiahong Liu Zhiyong Yang Yongqiang Cao Jing Chang Chao Mei 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(11):270
The Yuanshui River Basin is one of the most important river basins ensuring food production and livelihoods in the Hunan and Guizhou Provinces of China. Based on digital elevation model, land use, soil, and meteorological data, the soil and water assessment tool was used to analyze the response of water resources in the basin to climate change. Specifically, the monthly runoff from the Yuanshui River Basin was simulated. Runoff measurements from the 1961–1990 series were used to calibrate model parameters, and measurements from the 1991–2010 series were used for model validation. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient, and water balance error were used to evaluate the simulation results; the values obtained for these parameters were 0.925, 0.929, and 2.0%, respectively, indicating that the established model can be applied successfully to runoff simulations. To evaluate the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff, 24 different climate scenarios were modeled. By comparing the model simulation results with the baseline scenario, the effects of climate change were analyzed by year, during the dry season, and during extremely dry conditions. The results showed that runoff decreased with increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation, and that the effects of rainfall on runoff were greater than those of air temperature. Under the same baseline conditions, the effects of climate change on runoff were most pronounced during extremely dry months. 相似文献
11.
气候变化对地表水资源的影响 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
总结了气候变化对水文水资源影响方面的研究方法, 分析了气候变化条件下水文水资源变化的研究现状和存在问题.并以山西省和黄河源区为研究对象, 以分布式水文模型为工具、GCMs输出的气候情景为输入条件, 针对不同的下垫面特征建立不同的分布式水文模型, 分别采用气候情景趋势分析结果和直接利用GCMs输出结果两类方法确定气候变化的数据源, 对研究区域未来的地表径流过程和地表水资源可能的变化趋势进行了研究.从气候情景的预测结果来看, 未来50年山西省的气温和降水都呈增加趋势, 但由于各自对水资源带来的影响不同, 将使山西省水资源呈现先增加后减少的趋势; 且由于冬季气温和降水的增幅比夏季大, 使得未来山西省的水资源年内分布有略微平缓的趋势.对黄河源区而言, 虽然未来100年内的降水和气温都呈增加趋势, 但由于降水增长引起的地表水资源的增加不足以抵消气温升高带来的影响, 因此将导致径流量不断降低的总体趋势, 并使径流年内分布略趋平缓, 而年际分布将越来越不均匀, 旱涝威胁日趋严峻. 相似文献
12.
In this study, the effects of changes in historical and projected land use land cover (LULC) on monthly streamflow and sediment yield for the Netravati river basin in the Western Ghats of India are explored using land use maps from six time periods (1972, 1979, 1991, 2000, 2012, and 2030) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The LULC for 2030 is projected using the land change modeller with the assumption of normal growth. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate streamflow and sediment yield in the river basin. The results showed that the spatial extent of the LULC classes of urban (1.80–9.96%), agriculture (31.38–55.75%), and water bodies (1.48–2.66%) increased, whereas that of forest (53.04–27.03%), grassland (11.17–4.41%), and bare land (1.09–0.16%) decreased from 1972 to 2030. The streamflow increased steadily (7.88%) with changes in LULC, whereas the average annual sediment yield decreased (0.028%) between 1972 and 1991 and increased later (0.029%) until 2012. However, it may increase by 0.43% from 2012 to 2030. The results indicate that LULC changes in urbanization and agricultural intensification have contributed to the increase in runoff, amounting to 428.65 and 58.67 mm, respectively, and sediment yield, amounting to 348 and 43 ton/km2, respectively, in the catchment area from 1972 to 2030. The proposed methodology can be applied to other river basins for which temporal digital LULC maps are available for better water resource management plans. 相似文献
13.
Impact of climate change on waterlogging and salinity distributions in Huai Khamrian subwatershed, NE Thailand 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Phayom Saraphirom Wanpen Wirojanagud Kriengsak Srisuk 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(2):887-900
Regional climate models project significant changes in temperature and rainfall over the Greater Mekong Subregion over the twenty-first century. The potential impacts of climate change on areas affected by waterlogging and shallow saline groundwater in Northeast Thailand was investigated using the variable density groundwater model SEAWAT supported with recharge estimates derived from the hydrologic model HELP3. The focal area is the 154 km2 Huai Kamrian subwatershed. Changes in groundwater salinity and waterlogging areas at the middle and end of this century were predicted using the calibrated model. These predictions used the dynamically downscaled PRECIS regional climate change scenarios generated by ECHAM4 GCM A2 and B2 scenarios. Recharge rates are predicted to increase as a result of the higher intensity of rainfall. Shallow watertable areas are projected to increase by approximately 23 % from existing conditions during the middle of the century and up to 25 % by the end of this century. Although the precise rate and timing of climate change impacts are uncertain, all of the scenarios clearly point towards an extension in the area of waterlogging and area affected by shallow saline groundwater areas. Given that areas affected by shallow saline watertables are predicted to expand for both climate change scenarios as well as for the base case, it is concluded that climate change will have a significant impact on the area affected by salinity and waterlogging areas for both climate change scenarios. Evaluation of management options that explore the adaptation to saline environments and to means to reduce salt affected areas are required. 相似文献
14.
Simulating climate change impact on soil carbon sequestration in agro-ecosystem of mid-Himalayan landscape using CENTURY model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Soils play significant roles in global carbon cycle. The increase in atmospheric CO2 due to climate change may have a significant impact on both soil organic carbon storage and management practices to sequester organic carbon in agricultural areas. The aim of the study was to simulate climate change impact on soil carbon sequestration using CENTURY model. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate variables (temperature and rainfall) under two scenarios A2 and B2 for three periods: 2020 (2011–2040), 2050 (2041–2070) and 2080 (2071–2099). Downscaling was better in case of temperature than precipitation, which was evident from coefficient of correlation for temperature (r 2 = 0.91–0.99) and precipitation (r 2 = 0.71–0.80). Downscaling of climate data revealed that the temperature may increase for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 periods, whereas precipitation may increase till 2020 and then it may reduce in 2050 and 2080 as compared to 2020 in the study area. For CENTURY model, the input parameters were obtained through soil sampling and interviewing the farmers as well, whereas the climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation) were taken from the SDSM output. The historical data of soils were collected from the literature, and six agricultural sites were selected for estimating soil carbon sequestration. After soil sampling of the same sites, it was found that the organic carbon had increased two times than historical data might be due to the addition of high organic matter in the form of farm yard manure. Therefore, the model was calibrated, considering more organic carbon in the area, and was validated using random points in the study area. Determination coefficient (r 2 = 0.95) and RMSE (538 g c/m2) were computed to assess the accuracy of the model. The organic carbon was predicted from 2011 to 2099 and was compared with the 2011 predicted data. The study revealed that the amount of soil organic carbon in Bhaitan, Kanatal, Kotdwar, Malas, Pata and Thangdhar sites may reduce by 11.6, 15.8, 17.19, 13.54, 19.2 and 12.7%, respectively, for A2 scenario and by 9.62, 15.6, 15.72, 11.45, 16.96 and 13.36% for B2 scenario up to 2099. The study provides comprehensive possible future scenarios of soil carbon sequestration in the mid-Himalaya for scientists and policy makers. 相似文献
15.
基于Budyko水热耦合平衡假设,推导了年径流变化的计算公式,分析了长江流域多年平均潜在蒸发量、降水量、干旱指数和敏感性参数的空间变化规律。选用BCC-CSM1-1全球气候模式和RCP4.5排放情景,把未来气候要素预估值与LS-SVM统计降尺度方法相耦合,预测长江流域未来的气温、降水和径流变化情况。采用乌江和汉江流域的长期径流观测资料,分析验证了基于Budyko公式计算年径流变化的可靠性。结果表明:降水量变化是影响径流量变化的主导因素;长江各子流域未来径流相对变化增减不一,最大变幅10%左右;在未来2020s(2010—2039年)、2050s(2040—2069年)和2080s(2070—2099年)3个时期内,长江南北两岸流域的径流将出现"南减北增"现象,北岸径流变化增幅逐渐升高,南岸径流变化减幅逐渐降低。 相似文献
16.
汉江流域未来降水径流预测分析研究 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
本文应用统计降尺度法将全球气候模式和VIC分布式水文模型进行耦合,研究未来A2气候情景下汉江流域降水径流变化情况.首先应用基于光滑支持向量机的统计降尺度法在全球气候模式CGCM2和HadCM3的A2气候情景下,分别预测未来汉江流域日降水、气温过程,然后将预测降水过程作为VIC模型的输入,模拟预测未来汉江流域径流过程.研究结果表明,在CGCM2气候模式下,2020s(2011～2040年)时期汉江流域径流小于基准年,2050s(2041～2070年)时期与基准年基本相当,2080s(2071～2100年)时期大于基准年;在HadCM3气候模式下,2020s时期汉江流域径流小于基准年,2050s和2080s时期均比基准年增加;降水、气温预测结果与径流基本一致. 相似文献
17.
Urbanisation and climate change can have adverse effects on the streamflow and water balance components in river basins. This study focuses on the understanding of different hydrologic responses to climate change between urban and rural basins. The comprehensive semi-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate how the streamflow and water balance components vary under future climate change on Bharalu (urban basin) and Basistha (rural basin) River basins near the Brahmaputra River in India based on precipitation, temperature and geospatial data. Based on data collected in 1990–2012, it is found that 98.78% of the water yield generated for the urban Bharalu River basin is by surface runoff, comparing to 75% of that for the rural Basistha basin. Comparison of various hydrologic processes (e.g. precipitation, discharge, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) based on predicted climate change scenarios is evaluated. The urban Bharalu basin shows a decrease in streamflow, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration in contrast to the rural Basistha basin, for the 2050s and 2090s decades. The average annual discharge will increase a maximum 1.43 and 2.20 m3/s from the base period for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) such as 2.6 and 8.5 pathways in Basistha River and it will decrease a maximum 0.67 and 0.46 m3/s for Bharalu River, respectively. This paper also discusses the influence of sensitive parameters on hydrologic processes, future issues and challenges in the rural and urban basins. 相似文献
18.
利用政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告的22个新一代全球气候模式基准期(1961～1990年)模拟结果,从时空尺度分别讨论了与观测过程的差异,评估了模式对长江流域气温和降水的模拟性能。结果表明22个气候模式对长江流域具有一定的模拟能力,地面气温的模拟值都偏低,部分降水的模拟值局部偏高。不同的气候模式的模拟能力差异显著,大部分模式对长江流域的模拟精度有待进一步改进,只有少数几个模式（降水有6个模式,气温有5个模式）的年变化趋势与实况基本一致。综合比较,UKMO_HadCM3和NCAR_PCM两个模式基本能再现长江流域降水和气温的年变化特征。长江流域降水和气温未来情景预估表明各个模式和情景结果虽然存在差异,但对未来90年气候变化的模拟趋势基本一致,将持续增温、降水出现区域性增加,并着重讨论了UKMO_HadCM3模式在2020s（2010～2039年）、2050s（2040～2069年）和2080s（2070～2099年）3个时段的降水和气温时空变化特征,研究结果表明3个时段气温和降水在不同情景下都是逐渐增加的,A2情景下未来降水增幅最显著,B1情景增幅最小。 相似文献
19.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2007,339(11-12):775-783
Here we explore the effects of projected future changes in global ozone concentrations on premature human mortality, under three scenarios for 2030. We use daily surface ozone concentrations from a global atmospheric transport and chemistry model, and ozone–mortality relationships from daily time-series studies. The population-weighted annual average 8-h daily maximum ozone is projected to increase, relative to the present, in each of ten world regions under the SRES A2 scenario and the current legislation (CLE) scenario, with the largest growth in tropical regions, while decreases are projected in each region in the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenario. Emission reductions in the CLE scenario, relative to A2, are estimated to reduce about 190,000 premature human mortalities globally in 2030, with the most avoided mortalities in Africa. The MFR scenario will avoid about 460,000 premature mortalities relative to A2 in 2030, and 270,000 relative to CLE, with the greatest reductions in South Asia. 相似文献
20.
Amir Asadi Vaighan Nasser Talebbeydokhti Alireza Massah Bavani 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(15):543
This research addressed the separate and combined impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, suspended sediment and water quality in the Kor River Basin, Southwest of Iran, using (BASINS–WinHSPF) model. The model was calibrated and validated for hydrology, sediment and water quality for the period 2003–2012. The model was run under two climate changes, two land use changes and four combined change scenarios for near-future period (2020–2049). The results revealed that projected climate change impacts include an increase in streamflow (maximum increases of 52% under RCP 2.6 in December and 170% under RCP 8.5). Projected sediment concentrations under climate change scenarios showed a monthly average decrease of 10%. For land use change scenarios, agricultural development scenario indicated an opposite direction of changes in orthophosphate (increases in all months with an average increase of 6% under agricultural development scenario), leading to the conclusion that land use change is the dominant factor in nutrient concentration changes. Combined impacts results indicated that streamflows in late fall and winter months increased while in summer and early fall decreased. Suspended sediment and orthophosphate concentrations were decreased in all months except for increases in suspended sediment concentrations in September and October and orthophosphate concentrations in late winter and early spring due to the impact of land use change scenarios. 相似文献