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1.
A study on selection of probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis in Australia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ayesha S. Rahman Ataur Rahman Mohammad A. Zaman Khaled Haddad Amimul Ahsan Monzur Imteaz 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(3):1803-1813
The most direct method of design flood estimation is at-site flood frequency analysis, which relies on a relatively long period of recorded streamflow data at a given site. Selection of an appropriate probability distribution and associated parameter estimation procedure is of prime importance in at-site flood frequency analysis. The choice of the probability distribution for a given application is generally made arbitrarily as there is no sound physical basis to justify the selection. In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the suitability of as many as fifteen different probability distributions and three parameter estimation methods based on a large Australian annual maximum flood data set. A total of four goodness-of-fit tests are adopted, i.e., the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, Anderson–Darling test, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, to identify the best-fit probability distributions. Furthermore, the L-moments ratio diagram is used to make a visual assessment of the alternative distributions. It has been found that a single distribution cannot be specified as the best-fit distribution for all the Australian states as it was recommended in the Australian rainfall and runoff 1987. The log-Pearson 3, generalized extreme value, and generalized Pareto distributions have been identified as the top three best-fit distributions. It is thus recommended that these three distributions should be compared as a minimum in practical applications when making the final selection of the best-fit probability distribution in a given application in Australia. 相似文献
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受工程勘察成本及试验场地限制,可获得的试验数据通常有限,基于有限的试验数据难以准确估计岩土参数统计特征和边坡可靠度。贝叶斯方法可以融合有限的场地信息降低对岩土参数不确定性的估计进而提高边坡可靠度水平。但是,目前的贝叶斯更新研究大多假定参数先验概率分布为正态、对数正态和均匀分布,似然函数为多维正态分布,这种做法的合理性有待进一步验证。总结了岩土工程贝叶斯分析常用的参数先验概率分布及似然函数模型,以一个不排水黏土边坡为例,采用自适应贝叶斯更新方法系统探讨了参数先验概率分布和似然函数对空间变异边坡参数后验概率分布推断及可靠度更新的影响。计算结果表明：参数先验概率分布对空间变异边坡参数后验概率分布推断及可靠度更新均有一定的影响,选用对数正态和极值I型分布作为先验概率分布推断的参数后验概率分布离散性较小。选用Beta分布和极值I型分布获得的边坡可靠度计算结果分别偏于保守和危险,选用对数正态分布获得的边坡可靠度计算结果居中。相比之下,似然函数的影响更加显著。与其他类型似然函数相比,由多维联合正态分布构建的似然函数可在降低对岩土参数不确定性估计的同时,获得与场地信息更为吻合的计算结果。另外,构建似然函数时不同位置处测量误差之间的自相关性对边坡后验失效概率也具有一定的影响。 相似文献
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考虑参数空间变异性的非饱和土坡可靠度分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
在考虑多个土体参数空间变异性的基础上,提出了基于拉丁超立方抽样的非饱和土坡稳定可靠度分析的非侵入式随机有限元法。利用Hermite随机多项式展开拟合边坡安全系数与输入参数间的隐式函数关系,采用拉丁超立方抽样技术产生输入参数样本点,通过Karhunen-Loève展开方法离散土体渗透系数、有效黏聚力和内摩擦角随机场,并编写了计算程序NISFEM-KL-LHS。研究了该方法在稳定渗流条件下非饱和土坡可靠度分析中的应用。结果表明：非侵入式随机有限元法为考虑多个土体参数空间变异性的非饱和土坡可靠度问题提供了一种有效的分析工具。土体渗透系数空间变异性和坡面降雨强度对边坡地下水位和最危险滑动面位置均有明显的影响。当降雨强度与饱和渗透系数的比值大于0.01时,边坡失效概率急剧增加。当土体参数变异性或者参数间负相关性较大时,忽略土体参数空间变异性会明显高估边坡失效概率。 相似文献
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将大规模渗流有限元计算与随机响应面法相结合,对双江口心墙堆石坝进行渗透稳定可靠性分析。在基于随机响应面法的可靠度分析框架内,堆石坝稳定渗流有限元计算过程和可靠度分析过程分开独立进行,通过对心墙渗透坡降较大区域的节点建立统一的渗透稳定功能函数,采用渗流有限元分析方法和随机响应面法,计算出该区域每个节点处的渗透破坏失效概率,并将最大失效概率作为心墙的失效概率。最后,分析了心墙渗透系数、覆盖层渗透系数、上游水位与心墙具有最大失效概率节点处渗透坡降的相关关系,以及心墙渗透系数和上游水位的变异性对心墙渗透破坏失效概率的影响。计算结果表明,随机响应面法3阶Hermite展开就能够保证良好的计算精度,且计算耗时较小;双江口堆石坝心墙具有最大失效概率节点处的渗透坡降与上游水位密切相关,而与心墙本身的渗透系数呈弱负相关关系,与覆盖层渗透系数的相关性不显著;随着上游水位变异性的增大,心墙失效概率急剧增大,而这种效应对于心墙渗透系数并不明显。研究成果为随机响应面法在实际工程中的应用奠定了一定的基础。 相似文献
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Strong wind and rainfall induced by extreme meteorological processes such as typhoons have a serious impact on the safety of bridges and offshore engineering structures. A new bivariate compound extreme value distribution is proposed to describe the probability dependency structure of annual extreme wind speed and concomitant process maximum rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected area. This probability model takes full account of the case that there may be no rainfall in a typhoon process. A case study based on the observation data of typhoon maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall intensity in Shanghai is conducted to testify the efficiency of the model. Weibull distributions with two parameters are applied to fit respective probability margins, and the joint probability distribution is constructed by Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The fitting results and K–S tests show that these models describe the original data well. The joint return periods are calculated by Poisson bivariate compound extreme value distribution we have proposed. They indicate that typhoons with no rain have smaller joint return periods, and wind speed is the main factor which impacts the change of the joint return periods. 相似文献
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竖管测定法可现场测定河床的渗透系数.采用人工梯度法和自然梯度法两种方法,对普拉特河位于卡尼市(KearneyCity)东南河段河床的垂直、水平和任意方向的渗透系数进行了野外现场测定.10个测点的垂向渗透系数的平均值为30.51m/d,一个测点的水平方向渗透系数为97.2m/d,其各向异性比率约为3.结果表明:普拉特河床沉积物剖面上具有一定的各向异性,平面上为非均匀介质. 相似文献
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基于Bootstrap抽样技术提出了有限数据条件下边坡可靠度分析方法。简要介绍了传统的边坡可靠度分析方法。采用Bootstrap方法模拟了抗剪强度参数概率分布函数的统计不确定性。以无限边坡为例研究了抗剪强度分布参数和分布类型不确定性对边坡可靠度的影响规律。结果表明：基于有限数据估计的样本均值、样本标准差和AIC值具有较大的变异性,这种变异性进一步导致了抗剪强度参数概率分布函数存在明显的统计不确定性。在考虑抗剪强度参数概率分布函数的统计不确定性时,边坡可靠度指标应为具有一定置信度水平的置信区间,而不是传统可靠度分析中的固定值。边坡可靠度指标的置信区间变化范围随安全系数的增加而增大,同时考虑分布参数和分布类型不确定性计算的可靠度指标具有更大的变异性和更宽的置信区间变化范围。Bootstrap方法为有限数据条件下抗剪强度参数概率分布函数统计不确定性的模拟以及边坡可靠度的评估提供了一条有效的途径。 相似文献
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根据给定渗透系数、孔隙度以及吸附系数的概率分布,采用顺序高斯模拟生成相关的多参数随机场的实现,作为地下水流和溶质运移模型的输入参数,对污染物浓度进行随机分析。研究结果表明,与仅考虑渗透系数空间变异性相比,考虑相关的多参数空间变异性导致污染羽的扩散程度有显著不同。当孔隙度与渗透系数呈正相关关系时,会减少污染羽的扩散程度,反之,当孔隙度与渗透系数为负相关关系时,会加剧污染羽的扩散程度。吸附系数也是如此。在考虑吸附系数的空间变异性之后,污染羽的分布表现出拖尾现象。同时考虑渗透系数、孔隙度以及吸附系数空间变异性时,孔隙度非均质性对溶质运移的影响较吸附系数非均质性的影响更大。 相似文献
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以颗粒状钠基膨润土防水毯为研究对象,采用改造的GDS全自动环境岩土渗透仪开展渗透试验,研究温度和压力对渗透系数的影响。研究表明:低围压下膨润土防水毯的渗透系数随温度的增加而减小,温度较高时趋于平缓或略有增大;围压增为100 kPa时,渗透系数随温度的增加而增大。固有渗透率随温度的增加而减小;低围压下固有渗透率减小更显著,仅考虑流体物理性质变化的渗透系数估算值与实测值有很大差异。膨润土吸附结合水量随温度的升高而减小,不能解释膨润土防水毯渗透系数和固有渗透率随温度的变化规律。当温度升高时,粒间孔隙减小且颗粒状膨润土分解成凝胶态蒙脱石颗粒,在低围压下凝胶态蒙脱石颗粒层间距离减小,是渗透系数和固有渗透率随温度的升高而减小的主要原因。 相似文献
10.
Forecasting flood risk in the Indus River system using hydrological parameters and its damage assessment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Hydrological parameters are among the widely used parameters in assessing flood risk. On the other hand, anticipated flood damages, in case of flooding, are estimated with the help of expected losses in areas nearer to the watercourse. The major source of almost every-year flooding in Pakistan is the Indus River system that comprises the major rivers of Pakistan. We first use observed data to construct simulated data models based on various probability distributions namely normal, lognormal, Weibull, largest extreme value, gamma-3, and log-Pearson type-3 distributions and thereby compute probable maximum flood. Secondly, we perform log-Pearson type-3 analysis with and without historic adjustment on the observed data series of 17 years to forecast floods with return periods T of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years. We also categorize the river structures based on the risk of flooding. Lastly, we estimate risk of flood damages in terms of expected losses based on observed data. The present study reveals that the log-Pearson type-3 distribution is relatively better for estimating probable maximum flood. We use exceedence probability to assess the risk of flooding in the various structures of the said rivers. The analysis shows that flood damages in Pakistan may be reduced by increasing the design capacity of the structures and also by giving awareness to people about the flood-generating factors. 相似文献
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The consideration of uncertainties plays an increasing role in the design of geotechnical structures. An important procedure in the uncertainty analysis is the reliability assessment whereby the required statistical quantities and distributions are assumed to be known exactly. Due to small sample observations and missing information this is not the case in practical applications and uncertainties in the stochastic parameters themselves have to be considered. In our study we estimate the parameter variation of soil properties by statistical procedures and perform an extended reliability analysis of a shallow foundation considering these uncertainties. We propose a novel approach based on a Taylor series expansion which enables the estimation of the failure probability variation very efficiently. 相似文献
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Farshad Ahmadi Feridon Radmaneh Gholam Ali Parham Rasoul Mirabbasi 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(3):1313-1331
Determination of the return period of design flood depends on the nature of the project and the consequences of the flood and is based on economic criteria, human casualties, and hydrological factors. Underestimation of flood might result in casualties and economic damages, while the overestimation leads to capital waste. Therefore, in this research, the flood frequency analysis of Dez Basin, Iran was conducted within the period of 1956–2012 using power law approach together with ordinary distributions, including normal, log normal, Pearson type III, exponential, gamma, generalized extreme value, Nakagami, Rayleigh, logistic, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, and Weibull distributions. The power law comes from the fractal nature of earth science phenomena such as precipitation and runoff. Accordingly, in this research the partial duration flood series of five hydrometric stations in Dez Basin were extracted using power law with the intervals of 7, 14, 30, and 60 days and then compared with the annual maxima. The results indicated that the annual maxima were not suitable for frequency analysis of the flood in Dez Basin, and the 30-day partial duration series obtained from the power law has a better correspondence with the flow and properties of the Dez Basin. The independence and stationarity of the 30-day partial duration series were examined by Wald–Wolfowitz test, confirming the independence of the considered series. Next, the power distribution and the typical statistical distributions were fitted onto the data of the flood in Dez Basin, with the performance of each distribution being investigated using normalized root-mean-square error and Nash–Sutcliffe criteria. The results revealed that in the SDZ and TPB stations, power distribution had a better performance than other considered distributions. Moreover, in the SDS, TPS, and TZ stations the power distribution stood in the second rank in terms of the best distribution. As the performance of power distribution in the estimation of the flood in Dez Basin has been very satisfactory and calculation of its parameters and its application is easier than ordinary probability distributions, thus it can be suggested as the superior distribution for flood frequency analysis in Dez Basin. 相似文献
14.
Field and laboratory methods have been used to determine the hydraulic properties in a multiple-layer aquifer–aquitard system that is hydrologically connected to a river. First, hypothetical pumping tests in aquifer–aquitard systems were performed to evaluate the feasibility of MODFLOW-PEST in determining these parameters. Sensitivity analyses showed that: the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the aquifer has the highest composite sensitivity; the vertical hydraulic conductivity has higher composite sensitivity than the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the aquitard; and a partial penetration pumping well in an aquifer layer can improve the quality of the estimated parameters. This inverse approach was then used to analyze a pumping-recovery test conducted near the Platte River in southeastern Nebraska, USA. The hydraulic conductivities and specific yield were calculated for the aquitard and aquifer. The direct-push technique was used to generate sediment columns; permeameter tests on these columns produced the vertical hydraulic conductivities that are compatible with those obtained from the pumping-recovery test. Thus, the combination of the direct-push technique with permeameter tests provides a new method for estimation of vertical hydraulic conductivity. The hydraulic conductivity, determined from grain-size analysis, is smaller than the horizontal one but larger than the vertical one determined by the pumping-recovery test. 相似文献
15.
Estimation of regional-scale groundwater flow properties in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh
Quantitative evaluation of management strategies for long-term supply of safe groundwater for drinking from the Bengal Basin aquifer (India and Bangladesh) requires estimation of the large-scale hydrogeologic properties that control flow. The Basin consists of a stratified, heterogeneous sequence of sediments with aquitards that may separate aquifers locally, but evidence does not support existence of regional confining units. Considered at a large scale, the Basin may be aptly described as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity. Though data are sparse, estimation of regional-scale aquifer properties is possible from three existing data types: hydraulic heads, 14C concentrations, and driller logs. Estimation is carried out with inverse groundwater modeling using measured heads, by model calibration using estimated water ages based on 14C, and by statistical analysis of driller logs. Similar estimates of hydraulic conductivities result from all three data types; a resulting typical value of vertical anisotropy (ratio of horizontal to vertical conductivity) is 104. The vertical anisotropy estimate is supported by simulation of flow through geostatistical fields consistent with driller log data. The high estimated value of vertical anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity indicates that even disconnected aquitards, if numerous, can strongly control the equivalent hydraulic parameters of an aquifer system. 相似文献
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近年来土工织物膨润土垫（GCL）被越来越多地应用到各种防渗工程中,它的膨胀性和渗透性也成为了设计人员和研究人员所关注的焦点。通过水化膨胀试验、自由膨胀试验和渗透试验,研究了液体对GCL膨胀性能和渗透性能的影响以及膨胀性和渗透性之间存在的相关关系。试验结果表明, 水化液和渗透液的种类对GCL的膨胀性和渗透性有很大影响,其影响分别为：(1) 水化液相同时,渗透液的种类对GCL的渗透系数有影响,而渗透液相同时,水化液的种类对GCL的渗透系数也有影响;(2) GCL的水化膨胀量和渗透系数之间存在相关关系,水化膨胀量越大,渗透系数就越低;(3) GCL中膨润土的自由膨胀量和GCL的渗透系数之间也存在相关关系,自由膨胀量越大,GCL的渗透系数就越低。 相似文献
18.
Hydraulic conductivity and pore fluid chemistry in artificially weathered plastic clay 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Triaxial and oedometer tests have examined how freezing–thawing (FT) and drying–wetting (DW) affect the hydraulic conductivity of a natural plastic clay. Because the clay was expansive, FT and DW in the laboratory produced only one order of magnitude increase in hydraulic conductivity above the ‘undisturbed’ value when permeated with water. Permeation with sodium carbonate or dimethyl sulfoxide reduced the hydraulic conductivity towards the undisturbed value, though some increases still remained. Hydraulic conductivities measured by oedometer were lower than those in the triaxial tests and varied strongly with applied pressure. 相似文献
19.
The effects of rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on groundwater in a semi-arid basin of India were analyzed using Archimedean copulas considering 17 years of data for monsoon rainfall, post-monsoon groundwater level (PMGL) and ENSO Index. The evaluated dependence among these hydro-climatic variables revealed that PMGL-Rainfall and PMGL-ENSO Index pairs have significant dependence. Hence, these pairs were used for modeling dependence by employing four types of Archimedean copulas: Ali-Mikhail-Haq, Clayton, Gumbel-Hougaard, and Frank. For the copula modeling, the results of probability distributions fitting to these hydro-climatic variables indicated that the PMGL and rainfall time series are best represented by Weibull and lognormal distributions, respectively, while the non-parametric kernel-based normal distribution is the most suitable for the ENSO Index. Further, the PMGL-Rainfall pair is best modeled by the Clayton copula, and the PMGL-ENSO Index pair is best modeled by the Frank copula. The Clayton copula-based conditional probability of PMGL being less than or equal to its average value at a given mean rainfall is above 70% for 33% of the study area. In contrast, the spatial variation of the Frank copula-based probability of PMGL being less than or equal to its average value is 35–40% in 23% of the study area during El Niño phase, while it is below 15% in 35% of the area during the La Niña phase. This copula-based methodology can be applied under data-scarce conditions for exploring the impacts of rainfall and ENSO on groundwater at basin scales. 相似文献
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Groundwater yield in the Kenya Rift is highly unsustainable owing to geological variability.In this study,field hydraulic characterization was performed by using geoelectric approaches.The relations between electrical-hydraulic(eh)conductivities were modeled hypothetically and calibrated empirically.Correlations were based on the stochastic models and field-scale hydraulic parameters were contingent on pore-level parameters.By considering variation in pore-size distributions over eh conduction interval,the relations were scaled-up for use at aquifer-level.Material-level electrical conductivities were determined by using Vertical Electrical Survey and hydraulic conductivities by analyzing aquifer tests of eight boreholes in the Olbanita aquifer located in Kenya rift.VES datasets were inverted by using the computer code IP2Win.The main result is that ln T=0.537(ln Fa)+3.695;the positive gradient indicating eh conduction through pore-surface networks and a proxy of weathered and clayey materials.An inverse(1/F-K)correlation is observed.Hydraulic parameters determined using such approaches may possibly contribute significantly towards sustainable yield management and planning of groundwater resources. 相似文献