首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
A study of the hydrologic effects of catchment change from pasture to plantation was carried out in Gatum, south‐western Victoria, Australia. This study describes the hydrologic characteristics of two adjacent catchments: one with 97% grassland and the other one with 62% Eucalyptus globulus plantations. Streamflow from both catchments was intermittent during the 20‐month study period. Monthly streamflow was always greater in the pasture‐dominated catchment compared with the plantation catchment because of lower evapotranspiration in the pasture‐based catchment. This difference in streamflow was also observed even during summer 2010/2011 when precipitation was 74% above average (1954–2012) summer rainfall. Streamflow peaks in the plantation‐based catchment were smaller than in the pasture‐dominated system. Flow duration curves show differences between the pasture and plantation‐dominated catchments and affect both high‐flow and low‐flow periods. Groundwater levels fell (up to 4.4 m) in the plantation catchment during the study period but rose (up to 3.2 m) in the pasture catchment. Higher evapotranspiration in the plantation catchment resulted in falling groundwater levels and greater disconnection of the groundwater system from the stream, resulting in lower baseflow contribution to streamflow. Salt export from each catchment increases with increasing flow and is higher at the pasture catchment, mainly because of the higher flow. Reduced salt loading to streams due to tree planting is generally considered environmentally beneficial in saline areas of south‐eastern Australia, but this benefit is offset by reduced total streamflow. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
This paper describes the use of a continuous streamflow model to examine the effects of climate and land use change on flow duration in six urbanizing watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region. The hydrologic model is coupled with an optimization routine to achieve an agreement between observed and simulated streamflow. Future predictions are made for three scenarios: future climate change, land use change, and jointly varying climate and land use. Future climate is modelled using precipitation and temperature predictions for the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) and Hadley climate models. Results show that a significant increase in temperature under the CCC climate predictions produces a decreasing trend in low flows. A significant increasing trend in precipitation under the Hadley climate predictions produces an increasing trend in peak flows. Land use change by itself, as simulated by an additional 10% increase in imperviousness (from 20·5 to 30·5%), produces no significant changes in the simulated flow durations. However, coupling the effects of land use change with climate change leads to more significant decreasing trends in low flows under the CCC climate predictions and more significant increasing trends in peak flows under Hadley climate predictions than when climate change alone is employed. These findings indicate that combined land use and climate change can result in more significant hydrologic change than either driver acting alone. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Investigating the changes in streamflow regimes in response to various influencing factors contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms of hydrological processes in different watersheds and to water resource management strategies. This study examined streamflow regime changes by applying the indicators of hydrologic alteration method and eco-flow metrics to daily runoff data (1965–2016) from the Sandu, Hulu and Dali Rivers on the Chinese Loess Plateau, and then determined their responses to terracing, afforestation and damming. The Budyko water balance equation and the double mass curve method were used to separate the impacts of climate change and human activities on the mean discharge changes. The results showed that the terraced and dammed watersheds exhibited significant decreases in annual runoff. All hydrologic metrics indicated that the highest degree of hydrologic alteration was in the Sandu River watershed (terraced), where the monthly and extreme flows reduced significantly. In contrast, the annual eco-deficit increased significantly, indicating the highest reduction in streamflow among the three watersheds. The regulation of dams and reservoirs in the Dali River watershed has altered the flow regime, and obvious decreases in the maximum flow and slight increases in the minimum flow and baseflow indices were observed. In the Hulu River watershed (afforested), the monthly flow and extreme flows decreased slightly and were categorized as low-degree alteration, indicating that the long-term delayed effects of afforestation on hydrological processes. The magnitude of the eco-flow metrics varied with the alteration of annual precipitation. Climate change contributed 67.47% to the runoff reduction in the Hulu River watershed, while human activities played predominant roles in reducing runoff in the Sandu and Dali River watersheds. The findings revealed distinct patterns and causes of streamflow regime alteration due to different conservation measures, emphasizing the need to optimize the spatial allocation of measures to control soil erosion and utilize water resources on the Loess Plateau.  相似文献   

5.
Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands, which is a critical driver of freshwater ecosystems. To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, we present a 50‐year (1967–2016) analysis of hydrologic records in 23 unregulated streams across the five largest Hawaiian Islands. For each stream, flow was separated into direct run‐off and baseflow and high‐ and low‐flow statistics (i.e., Q10 and Q90) with ecologically important hydrologic indices (e.g., frequency of flooding and low flow duration) derived. Using Mann–Kendall tests with a running trend analysis, we determined the persistence of streamflow trends through time. We analysed native stream fauna from ~400 sites, sampled from 1992 to 2007, to assess species richness among islands and streams. Declines in streamflow metrics indicated a general drying across the islands. In particular, significant declines in low flow conditions (baseflows), were experienced in 57% of streams, compared with a significant decline in storm flow conditions for 22% of streams. The running trend analysis indicated that many of the significant downward trends were not persistent through time but were only significant if recent decades (1987–2016) were included, with an average decline in baseflow and run‐off of 10.90% and 8.28% per decade, respectively. Streams that supported higher native species diversity were associated with moderate discharge and baseflow index, short duration of low flows, and negligible downward trends in flow. A significant decline in dry season flows (May–October) has led to an increase in the number of no‐flow days in drier areas, indicating that more streams may become intermittent, which has important implications for mauka to makai (mountain to ocean) hydrological connectivity and management of Hawai'i's native migratory freshwater fauna.  相似文献   

6.
Heejun Chang 《水文研究》2007,21(2):211-222
This study investigates changes in streamflow characteristics for urbanizing watersheds in the Portland Metropolitan Area of Oregon for the period from 1951 to 2000. The objective of this study was to assess how mean annual runoff ratio, mean seasonal runoff ratio, annual peak runoff ratio, changes in streamflow in response to storm amount, the fraction of time that the daily mean flow exceeds the annual mean flow, 3‐day recession constants, and dry/wet flow ratio vary among watersheds with different degrees of urban development. There were no statistically significant changes in annual runoff ratio and annual peak runoff ratio for the mixed land‐use watershed (Tualatin River watershed) and the urban watershed (Johnson Creek watershed) during the entire study period. The Tualatin River watershed, where most of the urban development occurred in a lower part of the watershed, showed a statistically significant increase in annual peak runoff ratio during the 1976 and 2000 period. The Upper Tualatin River watershed illustrated a significant decrease in annual peak runoff ratio for the entire study period. With significant differences in seasonal runoff ratio, only Johnson Creek exhibited a significant increase in both wet and dry season runoff ratios. Streamflow during storm events declined rapidly in the urban watershed, with a high 3‐day recession constant. At an event storm scale, streamflow in Fanno Creek, which is the most urbanized watershed, responded quickly to precipitation input. The fraction of time that the daily mean flow exceeded the annual mean flow and dry/wet flow ratio are all lower in Johnson Creek. This suggests a shorter duration of storm runoff and lower baseflow in the urbanized watershed when compared to the mixed land use watershed. The findings of this study demonstrate the importance of spatial and temporal scale, climate variability, and basin physiographic characteristics in detecting the hydrologic effects of urbanization in the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Characterizing streamflow changes in the agricultural U.S. Midwest is critical for effective planning and management of water resources throughout the region. The objective of this study is to determine if and how baseflow has responded to land alteration and climate changes across the study area during the 50‐year study period by exploring hydrologic variations based on long‐term stream gage data. This study evaluates monthly contributions to annual baseflow along with possible trends over the 1966–2016 period for 458 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages within 12 different Midwestern states. It also examines the influence of climate and land use factors on the observed baseflow trends. Monthly contribution breakdowns demonstrate how the majority of baseflow is discharged into streams during the spring months (March, April, and May) and is overall more substantial throughout the spring (especially in April) and summer (June, July, and August). Baseflow has not remained constant over the study period, and the results of the trend detection from the Mann–Kendall test reveal that baseflows have increased and are the strongest from May to September. This analysis is confirmed by quantile regression, which suggests that for most of the year, the largest changes are detected in the central part of the distribution. Although increasing baseflow trends are widespread throughout the region, decreasing trends are few and limited to Kansas and Nebraska. Further analysis reveals that baseflow changes are being driven by both climate and land use change across the region. Increasing trends in baseflow are linked to increases in precipitation throughout the year and are most prominent during May and June. Changes in agricultural intensity (in terms of harvested corn and soybean acreage) are linked to increasing trends in the central and western Midwest, whereas increasing temperatures may lead to decreasing baseflow trends in spring and summer in northern Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nebraska.  相似文献   

8.
Snowmelt and water infiltration are two important processes of the hydrological cycle in alpine basins where snowmelt water is a main contributor of streamflow. In insufficiently gauged basins, hydrologic modeling is a useful approach to understand the runoff formation process and to simulate streamflow. In this study, an existing hydrologic model based on the principles of system dynamics was modified by using the effective cumulative temperature (>0 °C) to calculate snowmelt rate, and the soil temperature to adjust the influence of the soil’s physical state on water infiltration. This modified model was used to simulate streamflows in the Kaidu River basin from 1982 to 2002, including normal, high, and low flows categorized by the Z index. Sensitivity analyses, visual inspection, and statistical measures were employed to evaluate the capability of the model to simulate various components of the streamflow. Results showed that the modified model was robust, and able to simulate the three categories of flows well. The model’s ability to reproduce streamflow in low-flow and normal-flow years was better than that in high-flow years. The model was also able to simulate the baseflow. Further, its ability to simulate spring-peak flow was much better than its ability to simulate the summer-peak flow. This study could provide useful information for water managers in determining water allocations as well as in managing water resources.  相似文献   

9.
Low streamflow statistic estimators at ungauged river sites generally have large errors and uncertainties. This can be due to many reasons, including lack of data, complex hydrologic processes, and the inadequate or improper characterization of watershed hydrogeology. One potential solution is to take a small number of streamflow measurements at an ungauged site to either estimate hydrogeologic indices or transfer information from a nearby site using concurrent streamflow measurements. An analysis of four low streamflow estimation techniques, regional regression, regional plus hydrogeologic indices, baseflow correlation, and scaling, was performed within the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint watershed, a U.S. Geological Survey WaterSMART region in the south‐eastern United States. The latter three methods employ a nominal number of spot measurements at the ungauged site to improve low streamflow estimation. Results indicate that baseflow correlation and scaling methods, which transfer information from a donor site, can produce improved low streamflow estimators when spot measurements are available. Estimation of hydrogeologic indices from spot measurements improves regional regression models, with the baseflow recession constant having more explanatory power than the aquifer time constant, but these models are generally outperformed by baseflow correlation and scaling.  相似文献   

10.
This study addresses a need to document changes in streamflow and base flow (groundwater discharge to streams) in Hawai‘i during the past century. Statistically significant long‐term (1913–2008) downward trends were detected (using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test) in low‐streamflow and base‐flow records. These long‐term downward trends are likely related to a statistically significant downward shift around 1943 detected (using the nonparametric Pettitt test) in index records of streamflow and base flow. The downward shift corresponds to a decrease of 22% in median streamflow and a decrease of 23% in median base flow between the periods 1913–1943 and 1943–2008. The shift coincides with other local and regional factors, including a change from a positive to a negative phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, shifts in the direction of the trade winds over Hawai‘i, and a reforestation programme. The detected shift and long‐term trends reflect region‐wide changes in climatic and land‐cover factors. A weak pattern of downward trends in base flows during the period 1943–2008 may indicate a continued decrease in base flows after the 1943 shift. Downward trends were detected more commonly in base‐flow records than in high‐streamflow, peak‐flow, and rainfall records. The decrease in base flow is likely related to a decrease in groundwater storage and recharge and therefore is a valuable indicator of decreasing water availability and watershed vulnerability to hydrologic changes. Whether the downward trends will continue is largely uncertain given the uncertainty in climate‐change projections and watershed responses to changes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Several recent studies have shown the significance of representing groundwater in land surface hydrologic simulations. However, optimal methods for model parameter calibration in order to realistically simulate baseflow and groundwater depth have received little attention. Most studies still use globally constant groundwater parameters due to the lack of available datasets for calibration. Moreover, when models are calibrated, various parameter combinations are found to exhibit equifinality in simulated total runoff due to model parameter interactions. In this study, a simple lumped groundwater model is incorporated into the Community Land Model (CLM), in which the water table is interactively coupled to soil moisture through the groundwater recharge fluxes. The coupled model (CLMGW) is successfully validated in Illinois using a 22-year (1984–2005) monthly observational dataset. Baseflow estimates from the digital recursive filter technique are used to calibrate the CLMGW parameters. The advantage obtained from incorporating baseflow calibration in addition to traditional calibration based on measured streamflow alone is demonstrated by a Monte Carlo-type simulation analysis. Using the optimal parameter sets identified from baseflow calibration, flow partitioning and water table depth simulations using CLMGW are improved, and the equifinality problem is alleviated. For other regions that lack observations of water table depth, the baseflow calibration approach can be used to enhance parameter estimation and constrain water table depth simulations.  相似文献   

12.
Understanding how rainfall and snowmelt influence baseflow, the groundwater-fed component of streamflow, is essential for sound water resources management. Current approaches to understand the spatial couplings between these processes and baseflow are limited. The most commonly used methods include geochemical tracers and hydrologic models. A key limitation of the first is cost, while the second is limited by the need for simplifying assumptions. This study developed a data-driven approach which leverages satellite Earth observation data and ground-based data to assess the degree to which baseflow is influenced by upstream rainfall and snowmelt in California's Sierra Nevada. The procedure involved: (1) separation of baseflow from streamflow time series using a low-pass filtering technique, (2) quantification of aquifer drainage timescales through baseflow recession analysis, (3) application of time series and information theory methods to identify the areas which have the greatest impacts on baseflow through both rainfall and snowmelt, and (4) characterization of the elevation zones which have a prevailing influence on baseflow. Results suggest that areas which have the strongest impact on baseflow through rainfall and snowmelt are not necessarily the areas which experience the highest annual rates of snowmelt or rainfall; snowmelt occurring in the 3000–3700 m elevation range was found to be the most important driver of baseflow.  相似文献   

13.
Hilary McMillan 《水文研究》2020,34(6):1393-1409
Hydrologic signatures are metrics that quantify aspects of streamflow response. Linking signatures to underlying processes enables multiple applications, such as selecting hydrologic model structure, analysing hydrologic change, making predictions in ungauged basins, and classifying watershed function. However, many lists of hydrologic signatures are not process-based, and knowledge about signature-process links has been scattered among studies from experimental watersheds and model selection experiments. This review brings together those studies to catalogue more than 50 signatures representing evapotranspiration, snow storage and melt, permafrost, infiltration excess, saturation excess, groundwater, baseflow, connectivity, channel processes, partitioning, and human alteration. The review shows substantial variability in the number, type, and timescale of signatures available to represent each process. Many signatures provide information about groundwater storage, partitioning, and connectivity, whereas snow processes and human alteration are underrepresented. More signatures are related to the seasonal scale than the event timescale, and land surface processes (ET, snow, and overland flow) have no signatures at the event scale. There are limitations in some signatures that test for occurrence but cannot quantify processes, or are related to multiple processes, making automated analysis more difficult. This review will be valuable as a reference for hydrologists seeking to use streamflow records to investigate a particular hydrologic process or to conduct large-sample analyses of patterns in hydrologic processes.  相似文献   

14.
Land‐cover/climate changes and their impacts on hydrological processes are of widespread concern and a great challenge to researchers and policy makers. Kejie Watershed in the Salween River Basin in Yunnan, south‐west China, has been reforested extensively during the past two decades. In terms of climate change, there has been a marked increase in temperature. The impact of these changes on hydrological processes required investigation: hence, this paper assesses aspects of changes in land cover and climate. The response of hydrological processes to land‐cover/climate changes was examined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and impacts of single factor, land‐use/climate change on hydrological processes were differentiated. Land‐cover maps revealed extensive reforestation at the expense of grassland, cropland, and barren land. A significant monotonic trend and noticeable changes had occurred in annual temperature over the long term. Long‐term changes in annual rainfall and streamflow were weak; and changes in monthly rainfall (May, June, July, and September) were apparent. Hydrological simulations showed that the impact of climate change on surface water, baseflow, and streamflow was offset by the impact of land‐cover change. Seasonal variation in streamflow was influenced by seasonal variation in rainfall. The earlier onset of monsoon and the variability of rainfall resulted in extreme monthly streamflow. Land‐cover change played a dominant role in mean annual values; seasonal variation in surface water and streamflow was influenced mainly by seasonal variation in rainfall; and land‐cover change played a regulating role in this. Surface water is more sensitive to land‐cover change and climate change: an increase in surface water in September and May due to increased rainfall was offset by a decrease in surface water due to land‐cover change. A decrease in baseflow caused by changes in rainfall and temperature was offset by an increase in baseflow due to land‐cover change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Most semi‐distributed watershed water quality models divide the watershed into hydrologic response units (HRU) with no flow among them. This is problematic when watersheds are delineated to include variable source areas (VSAs) because it is the lateral flows from upslope areas to downslope areas that generate VSAs. Although hydrologic modellers have often successfully calibrated these types of models, there can still be considerable uncertainty in model results. In this paper, a topographic‐index‐based method is described and tested to distribute effective soil water holding capacity among HRUs, which can be subsequently adjusted using the watershed baseflow coefficient. The method is tested using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that simulates VSA runoff and is applied to two watersheds: a New York State (NYS) watershed, and one in the head waters of the Blue Nile Basin (BNB) in Ethiopia. Daily streamflow predicted using effective soil water storage capacities based only on the topographic index were reassuringly accurate in both the NYS watershed (daily Nash Sutcliffe (E) = 0·73) and in the BNB (E = 0·70). Using the baseflow coefficient to adjust the effective soil water storage capacity only slightly improved streamflow predictions in NYS (E = 0·75) but substantially improved the BNB predictions (E = 0·80). By comparison, the standard SWAT model, which uses the traditional look‐up tables to determine a runoff curve number, performed considerably less accurately in un‐calibrated form (E = 0·51 for NYS and E = 0·45 for BNB), but improved substantially when explicitly calibrated to streamflow measurements (E = 0·76 for NYS and E = 0·67 for the BNB). The calibration method presented here provides a parsimonious, systematic approach to using established models in VSA watersheds that reduces the ambiguity inherent in model calibration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Stable water isotope surveys have increasingly been integrated into river basins studies, but fewer have used them to evaluate impact of hydropower regulation. This study applies hydrologic and water isotope survey approaches to a Canadian Shield river basin with both regulated and natural flows. Historical streamflow records were used to evaluate the influence of three hydroelectric reservoirs and unregulated portions of the basin on downstream flows and changes in water level management implemented after an extreme flood year (1979). In 2013, water isotope surveys of surface and source waters (e.g., rainfall, groundwater, snowmelt) were conducted to examine spatial and temporal variation in contributions to river flow. Seasonal changes in relative groundwater contribution were assessed using a water‐isotope mass balance approach. Within the basin, two regulated reservoirs exhibited inverted hydrographs with augmented winter flows, whereas a third exhibited a hydrograph dominated by spring snowmelt. In 2013, spatial variation in rain‐on‐snow and air temperatures resulted in a critical lag in snowmelt initiation in the southern and northern portions of the basin resulting in a dispersed, double peak spring hydrograph, contrasting with 1979 when a combination of rain‐on‐snow and coincident snowmelt led to the highest flood on record. Although eastern basin reservoirs become seasonally enriched in δ18O and δ2H values, unregulated western basin flows remain less variable due to groundwater driven baseflow with increasing influence downstream. Combined analysis of historical streamflow (e.g., flood of 1979, drought of 2010) and the 2013 water isotope surveys illustrate extreme meteorological conditions that current management activities are unable to prevent. In this study, the influence of evaporative fractionation on large surface water reservoirs provides important evidence of streamflow partitioning, illustrating the value of stable water isotope tracers for study of larger catchments.  相似文献   

17.
  相似文献   

18.
Anthropogenic modifications to the landscape, with agricultural activities being a primary driver, have resulted in significant alterations to the hydrologic cycle. Artificial drainage, including surface and subsurface drainage (tile drains), is one of the most extensive manipulations in agricultural landscapes and thus is expected to provide a distinct signature of anthropogenic modification. This study adopts a data synthesis approach in an effort to characterize the signature of artificial subsurface drainage. Daily discharge data from 24 basins across the state of Iowa, which encapsulate a range of anthropogenic modifications, are assessed using a variety of flow metrics. Results indicate that the presence of artificial subsurface drainage leads to a homogenization of landscape hydrologic response. Non‐tiled watersheds exhibit a decrease in the area‐normalized peak discharge and an increase in the baseflow ratio (baseflow/streamflow) with increases in the spatial scale, while scale invariance is apparent in tiled basins. Within‐basin variability in hydrograph recession coefficients also appears to decrease with increases in the proportion of the catchment that is artificially drained. Finally, the differences between tiled and non‐tiled landscapes disappear at scales greater than approximately 2200 km2, indicating that this may be a threshold scale for studying the effects of tile drainage. This decrease in within‐basin variability and the scale invariance of hydrologic metrics in artificially drained watersheds are attributed to the creation of a bypass flow hydrologic pathway that bypasses the complexity of the catchment travel paths. Spatial homogeneity in responses implies that it may be possible to develop more parsimonious hydrologic models for these regions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

Discharge in most rivers consists mainly of baseflow exfiltrating from shallow groundwater reservoirs, while surface or other direct flows cease soon after rain storms or snowmelt. Analysis of observed baseflow recessions of two rivers in Turkey with intermittent flows and different geographical and climatic characteristics yielded nonlinear storage–outflow relationships of the highly seasonal aquifers. Baseflow separation was carried out using a nonlinear reservoir algorithm. Baseflow seasonality is related to the hydro-climatic conditions influencing groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration of groundwater. As intermittent streams generally have zero flows in the dry season, calibration of recession parameters is in many cases a complicated task.

Citation Aksoy, H. & Wittenberg, H. (2011) Nonlinear baseflow recession analysis in watersheds with intermittent streamflow. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 226–237.  相似文献   

20.
In order to simulate the potential effect of forecasted land‐cover change on streamflow and water availability, there has to be confidence that the hydrologic model used is sensitive to small changes in land cover (<10%) and that this land‐cover change exceeds the inherent uncertainty in forecasted conditions. To investigate this, a 26‐year streamflow record was simulated for 33 basins (54–928 km2) in the Delaware River Basin using three dates of land cover: the 2011 National Land‐Cover Dataset (Homer, Fry, & Barnes, 2012 ), 2030 land‐cover conditions representing median values from 101 equally‐likely forecasts, and 2060 land‐cover conditions corresponding to the same iterations used to represent 2030. Streamflow was simulated using a process‐based hydrologic model that includes both pervious and impervious methods as parameterized by three land‐cover‐based hydrologic response units (HRUs)—forested, agricultural, and developed land. Small, but significant differences in streamflow magnitude, variability, and seasonality were seen among the three time periods—2011, 2030, and 2060. Temporal differences were discernible from the range of conditions simulated with 101 equally likely forecasts for 2030. Development was co‐located with the most frequent landscape components, as characterized by topographic wetness index, resulting in a change in hydrology for each HRU, highlighting that knowing the location of disturbance is key to understanding potential streamflow changes. These results show that streamflow simulation using regional calibration that incorporates land‐cover‐based HRUs can be sensitive to relatively small changes in land‐cover and that temporal trends resulting from land‐cover change can be isolated in order to evaluate other changes that might affect water resources.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号