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1.
W. P. Pauw Richard J. T. Klein Kennedy Mbeva Adis Dzebo Davide Cassanmagnago Anna Rudloff 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):23-29
Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) were key to reaching the Paris Agreement and will be instrumental in implementing it. Research was quick to identify the ‘headline numbers’ of NDCs: if these climate action plans were fully implemented, global mean warming by 2100 would be reduced from approximately 3.6 to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels (Höhne et al. Climate Pol 17:1–17, 2016; Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, beyond these headline mitigation numbers, NDCs are more difficult to analyse and compare. UN climate negotiations have so far provided limited guidance on NDC formulation, which has resulted in varying scopes and contents of NDCs, often lacking details concerning ambitions. If NDCs are to become the long-term instrument for international cooperation, negotiation, and ratcheting up of ambitions to address climate change, then they need to become more transparent and comparable, both with respect to mitigation goals, and to issues such as adaptation, finance, and the way in which NDCs are aligned with national policies. Our analysis of INDCs and NDCs (Once a party ratifies the Paris Agreement, it is invited to turn its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) into an NDC. We refer to results from our INDC analysis rather than our NDC analysis in this commentary unless otherwise stated.) shows that they omit important mitigation sectors, do not adequately provide details on costs and financing of implementation, and are poorly designed to meet assessment and review needs. 相似文献
2.
In a commentary paper, Bamber et al. (Nat Clim Change 3:424–427, 2016) respond to our recent assessment (De Vries and Van de Wal Clim Change 1–14, 2015) of their expert judgment based study on projections of future sea level rise due to the melting of the large ice sheets (Bamber and Aspinall Nat Clim Chang 3:424–427, 2013). In this response we comment on their remarks. 相似文献
3.
IPCC第五次评估报告认为,受气候变化影响,许多生物种及生态系统已经发生显著变化,未来这些变化还将继续。气候变化和人类活动的共同作用将对21世纪的陆地生态系统和内陆水系统产生重要影响,大部分陆地和淡水物种灭绝的风险都将增加,部分地区可能会发生不可逆转的变化。未来仅依靠生态系统自身的适应能力将不足以应对这些变化,需要辅以适应措施帮助生态系统适应气候变化。海岸带系统和低洼地区除了受气候变化的影响,还受到人类活动的强烈影响,并且影响的方式和结果因地而异。预计到2100年,全球平均海平面将上升0.28～0.98 m,相对海平面上升差异较大。到2100年,数以亿计的人将受到沿海洪水的影响。未来海岸带地区适应的相对成本会有很大的区域差异。在全球尺度上,采取防御措施取得的效益仍要高于不作为而付出的社会经济成本。发达国家比发展中国家具有更强的适应气候变化能力,可持续发展的气候恢复力也更大。 相似文献
4.
Social scientists and science communicators are concerned about the apparent discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change (Anderegg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109, 2010; Doran and Zimmerman EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 90:22–3, 2009) and the general public’s views (Knight Environ Sociol 2:101–113, 2016; Lee et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:1014–1020, 2015). It is reasoned that increased public awareness and perceived threat of climate change may pressure governments to enact policy to counteract climate change (e.g. setting stringent carbon emissions targets). Despite a logical link between public awareness and government-set emissions targets, this relationship remains untested. We examined the relationship between public awareness about and perceived threat of climate change and governmental emissions targets across 71 countries and 1 region. We found a positive association between the proportions of a country’s population that are aware of climate change and the unconditional emissions reduction targets set by that country in the Paris Agreement (Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, the proportion of people in a country who perceive climate change as a personal threat was not associated with higher emissions reduction targets. Our results suggest that public awareness may be an important part of garnering the public support required for policies designed to mitigate climate change to succeed. 相似文献
5.
José-Manuel Giménez-Gómez Jordi Teixidó-Figueras Cori Vilella 《Climatic change》2016,136(3-4):693-703
An effective climate agreement is urgently required, yet conflict between parties prevails over cooperation. Thanks to advances in science it is now possible to quantify the global carbon budget, the amount of available cumulative CO2 emissions before crossing the 2 °C threshold (Meinshausen et al. Nature 458(7242):1158–1162, 2009). Countries carbon claims, however, exceed this. Historically such situations have been tackled with bankruptcy division rules. We argue that framing climate negotiations as a classical conflicting claims problem (O’Neill Math Soc Sci 2(4):345–371, 1982) may provide for an effective climate policy. We analyze the allocation of the global carbon budget among parties claiming the maximum emissions rights possible. Based on the selection of some desirable principles, we propose an efficient and sustainable allocation of the available carbon budget for the period 2000 to 2050 taking into account different risk scenarios. 相似文献
6.
A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Crop-climate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Crop-modelling studies have projected a 7–15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1–5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder’s engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation. 相似文献
7.
长江口海平面上升预测及其对滨海湿地影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选择吴淞站和吕四站2个验潮站数据,通过统计学方法进行长江口海平面上升预测,从而构建了一套长江口地区较完备的海平面上升情景库：以2013年为基准年份,其最佳预测值的范围在2030年、2050年、2100年分别为50~217 mm,118~430 mm,256~1215 mm。以此情景库为基础,探究海平面上升变化对长江口滨海湿地的影响,结果表明：随着海平面上升值的增加,长江口滨海湿地的面积不断减少;在基于验潮站数据作趋势外推得到的情景下,湿地面积减少较平缓,而在考虑全球变暖背景的情景下,湿地面积减少迅速;且不论在何种情景下,时间尺度越大,湿地减少的面积越大。 相似文献
8.
Against a background of climate change, Macau is very exposed to sea level rise(SLR) because of its low elevation,small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macau, both historical and, especially,possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. Sea level in Macau is now rising at an accelerated rate: 1.35 mm yr-1over 1925–2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr-1over 1970–2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macau contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macau will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8–12, 22–51 and 35–118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the +8.5 W m-2Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP8.5) scenario the increase in sea level by2100 will reach 65–118 cm—double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21 st century but begin to diverge thereafter. 相似文献
9.
Place-based adaptation planning is an approach to address cross-sectoral and multi-level governance concerns as well as to build local adaptive capacity in vulnerable resource-dependent communities facing the adverse impacts of climate change. In contrast, sector-based adaptation planning focuses on addressing climate change impacts on individual economic sectors (e.g. fisheries or forestry) or sub-sectors (such as lobsters or timber). Yet, linking sectoral approaches with local adaptation policies is challenging. More effort is needed to identify opportunities for complementary adaptation strategies and policy integration to foster multiple benefits. In this article, we use a case study of fishery sector resources and municipal adaptation planning in Nova Scotia to demonstrate how meaningful entry points could catalyse policy integration and lead to co-benefits across multiple levels and stakeholder groups. Drawing on a fisheries systems and fish chain framework, we identify and assess several entry points for policy integration across sector- and place-based adaptation domains within coastal habitats, as well as harvesting, processing, and marketing sectors. The analysis highlights the multiple benefits of integrating local municipal adaptation plans with multi-scale resource sectors especially towards monitoring ecosystem changes, protecting essential infrastructure, and securing local livelihoods.
POLICY RELEVANCE
Climate change is having a growing impact on coastal communities around the world, with consequences for sea-level rise, critical habitats, essential infrastructure, and multiple economic sectors and industries. This Canadian case study demonstrates how municipal adaptation initiatives can be complementary to sector-based adaptation at both local and regional levels through various entry points across commodity production chains. Policy integration across place-based and sector-based adaptation processes should lead to multiple benefits such as conserving marine biodiversity, protecting essential infrastructure, and securing livelihoods. Our analysis, which focuses specifically on the fishery sector and coastal communities, shows that these co-benefits may arise particularly in such coastal-marine systems and provide policy lessons to terrestrial systems and other sectors. 相似文献
10.
This study presents an assessment of the potential impacts of sea level rise on the New Jersey, USA coastal region. We produce
two projections of sea level rise for the New Jersey coast over the next century and apply them to a digital elevation model
to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to permanent inundation and episodic flooding due to storm
events. We estimate future coastline displacement and its consequences based on direct inundation only, which provides a lower
bound on total coastline displacement. The objective of this study is to illustrate methodologies that may prove useful to
policy makers despite the large uncertainties inherent in analysis of local impacts of climate and sea level change. Our findings
suggest that approximately 1% to 3% of the land area of New Jersey would be permanently inundated over the next century and
coastal storms would temporarily flood low-lying areas up to 20 times more frequently. Thus, absent human adaptation, by 2100
New Jersey would experience substantial land loss and alteration of the coastal zone, causing widespread impacts on coastal
development and ecosystems. Given the results, we identify future research needs and suggest that an important next step would
be for policy makers to explore potential adaptation strategies. 相似文献
11.
Recently published work estimates that global sea level rise (SLR) approaching or exceeding 1 m by 2100 is plausible, thus significantly updating projections by the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Furthermore, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the 21st century will not only influence SLR in the next ??90 years, but will also commit Earth to several meters of additional SLR over subsequent centuries. In this context of worsening prospects for substantial SLR, we apply a new geospatial dataset to calculate low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. potentially impacted by SLR in this and following centuries. In total, 20 municipalities with populations greater than 300,000 and 160 municipalities with populations between 50,000 and 300,000 have land area with elevations at or below 6 m and connectivity to the sea, as based on the 1 arc-second National Elevation Dataset. On average, approximately 9% of the area in these coastal municipalities lies at or below 1 m. This figure rises to 36% when considering area at or below 6 m. Areal percentages of municipalities with elevations at or below 1?C6 m are greater than the national average along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. In contrast to the national and international dimensions of and associated efforts to curb GHG emissions, our comparison of low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. clearly shows that SLR will potentially have very local, and disproportionate, impacts. 相似文献
12.
California coastal management with a changing climate 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
With over 2,000 miles (3,218 km) of ocean and estuarine coastline, California faces significant coastal management challenges
as a result of climate change-induced sea level rise. Under high emission scenarios, recent models predict 1.4 m or more of
sea level rise by 2100, accompanied by increasing storm surges. This article investigates the most important issues facing
coastal managers, explores the policy tools available for adapting to the impacts of climate change, assesses institutional
constraints to adaptation, and identifies priorities for future research and policy action. We find that adaptation tools
exist for dealing with anticipated increases in coastal erosion and flooding, but they involve significant costs and tradeoffs.
In particular, coastal armoring, such as seawalls, can protect developed coastal lands, but destroys beaches and habitat.
Although California already has policies and institutions that aim to balance the competing objectives for coastal development,
management agencies are at the early stages of understanding how to facilitate adaptation. Research priorities to inform coastal
adaptation planning include: (i) inventorying coastal resources to provide a firmer basis for balancing decisions on property
and habitat protection, (ii) identifying opportunities for coastal habitat migration, (iii) assessing the vulnerabilities
of existing and planned coastal infrastructure, and (iv) experimenting with alternatives to armoring as a way of managing
the changing coastline. 相似文献
13.
Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The threat of an abrupt and extreme rise in sea level is widely discussed in the media, but little understood in practise, especially the likely impacts of such a rise including a potential adaptation response. This paper explores for the first time the global impacts of extreme sea-level rise, triggered by a hypothetical collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). As the potential contributions remain uncertain, a wide range of scenarios are explored: WAIS contributions to sea-level rise of between 0.5 and 5 m/century. Together with other business-as-usual sea-level contributions, in the worst case this gives an approximately 6-m rise of global-mean sea level from 2030 to 2130. Global exposure to extreme sea-level rise is significant: it is estimated that roughly 400 million people (or about 8% of global population) are threatened by a 5-m rise in sea level, just based on 1995 data. The coastal module within the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) model is tuned with global data on coastal zone characteristics concerning population, land areas and land use, and then used for impact analysis under the extreme sea-level rise scenarios. The model considers the interaction of (dry)land loss, wetland loss, protection costs and human displacement, assuming perfect adaptation based on cost-benefit analysis. Unlike earlier analyses, response costs are represented in a non-linear manner, including a sensitivity analysis based on response costs. It is found that much of the world’s coast would be abandoned given these extreme scenarios, although according to the global model, significant lengths of the world’s coast are worth defending even in the most extreme case. This suggests that actual population displacement would be a small fraction of the potential population displacement, and is consistent with the present distribution of coastal population, which is heavily concentrated in specific areas. Hence, a partial defence can protect most of the world’s coastal population. However, protection costs rise substantially diverting large amounts of investment from other sectors, and large areas of (dry)land and coastal wetlands are still predicted to be lost. Detailed case studies of the WAIS collapse in the Netherlands, Thames Estuary and the Rhone delta suggest greater abandonment than shown by the global model, probably because the model assumes perfect implementation of coastal protection and does not account for negative feedbacks when implementation is imperfect. The significant impacts found in the global model together with the potential for greater impacts as found in the detailed case studies shows that the response to abrupt sea-level rise is worthy of further research. 相似文献
14.
Paul Kirshen Samuel Merrill Peter Slovinsky Norman Richardson 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):919-931
The development of successful coastal adaptation strategies for both the built and natural environments requires combining scenarios of climate change and socio-economic conditions, and risk assessment. Such planning needs to consider the adaptation costs and residual damages over time that may occur given a range of possible storm conditions for any given sea level rise scenario. Using the metric of the expected value of annual adaptation costs and residual damages, or another metric that can be related to the elevation of flooding, a simplified method to carry this out is presented. The approach relies upon developing damage-flooding depth probability exceedance curves for various scenarios over a given planning period and determining the areas under the curves. While the approach does have limitations, it is less complex to implement than using Monte Carlo simulation approaches and may be more intuitive to decision makers. A case study in Maine, USA is carried out to illustrate the method. 相似文献
15.
Climate change and coastal flooding in Metro Boston: impacts and adaptation strategies 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will increase storm surge height along the 825 km long coastline of Metro Boston,
USA. Land at risk consists of urban waterfront with piers and armoring, residential areas with and without seawalls and revetments,
and undeveloped land with either rock coasts or gently sloping beachfront and low-lying coastal marshes. Risk-based analysis
shows that the cumulative 100 year economic impacts on developed areas from increased storm surge flooding depend heavily
upon the adaptation response, location, and estimated sea level rise. Generally it is found that it is advantageous to use
expensive structural protection in areas that are highly developed and less structural approaches such as floodproofing and
limiting or removing development in less developed or environmentally sensitive areas. 相似文献
16.
Adaptation finance is primarily allocated to multilateral entities and national governments, rather than local organizations. This means that the social, political and economic processes that create and sustain inequalities within a country will be the same processes that determine how adaptation finance is used. Using an urban lens, we consider the obstacles currently faced by local governments and local civil society groups in accessing adaptation finance, and show that these are a function of systemic power imbalances between levels of government, and between government and vulnerable communities. We argue that even relatively small amounts of adaptation finance could have a catalytic effect on the capacities and impacts of local organizations, contributing to greater levels of both distributive and procedural justice. We analyse different financial intermediaries and planning systems that could be used to make disbursements from multilateral climate funds fairer and more effective. This could potentially create political opportunities both to respond to direct climate threats and to address underlying drivers of vulnerability, such as marginalization and exclusion. In this way, channelling adaptation finance to the local level could deliver more just processes and outcomes.
Key policy insights
More multilateral climate funds should establish direct access modalities, and introduce ‘fit-for-purpose’ accreditation procedures and approval processes. Those that have already established such enabling frameworks should prioritize providing readiness support to local organizations, and incentivize state and citizen collaboration in adaptation projects.
National governments should consider clearly enshrining the rights and responsibilities of local authorities in National Adaptation Plans, and help them to collect the information, build the capacities and acquire the resources needed to plan and implement adaptation measures. National governments should further encourage local authorities to adopt participatory planning, budgeting, monitoring and evaluation procedures to encourage citizen participation.
Local civil society groups should identify or establish collective entities that can seek accreditation with multilateral funds and then disburse money to their members. Collaboration between groups can facilitate up-scaling through replication (particularly where peer-to-peer learning is embedded in the network) and reduce the transaction costs associated with myriad small projects.
17.
Isaac Boateng 《Climatic change》2012,114(2):273-293
Sea-level rise is a major coastal issue in the 21st century because many of the world??s built assets are located in the coastal zone. Coastal erosion and flooding are serious threats along the coast of Ghana, particularly, the eastern coast where the Volta delta is located. Past human interventions, climate change and the resultant rise in sea-levels, increased storm intensity and torrential rainfall have been blamed for these problems. Accelerated sea-level rise and storm surge pose serious threat to coastal habitat, bio-diversity and socio-economic activities in the coastal zone of Ghana and elsewhere. There is the need for an holistic assessment of the impacts of sea-level rise on the coast zone in order to formulate appropriate adaptation policies and strategies to mitigate the possible effects. Using the eastern coast of Ghana as a case study, this paper assesses the physical impacts of accelerated sea level rise and storm surge on the coastal environment. It evaluates adaptation policies and plans that could be implemented to accommodate the present and any future impacts. Field investigation and Geographic Information System (GIS) are among the methods used for the assessment. The outcome of the assessment has provided comprehensive knowledge of the potential impacts of accelerated sea-level rise and storm surge on the eastern coast. It has facilitated identification of management units, the appraisal of alternate adaptation policies and the selection of the best policy options based upon the local conditions and environmental sustainability. Among other things, this paper reveals that the eastern coast of Ghana is highly vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and therefore, requires sustainable adaptation policies and plans to manage the potential impacts. It recommends that various accommodation policies, which enable areas to be occupied for longer before eventual retreat, could be adapted to accommodate vulnerable settlements in the eastern coast of Ghana. 相似文献
18.
Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: An exploration of human-dimension uncertainties 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers’ and communal responses to climate change. 相似文献
19.
Coastal fishing communities are closely linked to the biological and ecological characteristics of exploited resources and the physical conditions associated with climate and ocean dynamics. Thus, the human populations that depend on fisheries are inherently exposed to climate variability and uncertainty. This study applied an ethno-oceanographic framework to investigate the perceptions of fishers on climate and ocean change to better understand the impacts of climate change on the coastal fishing communities of the South Brazil Bight. Seven coastal fishing communities that cover the regional diversity of the area were selected. Fishers were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. The results suggest that fishers have detected climate-related changes in their environment such as reduced rainfall, increased drought events, calmer sea conditions, increases in air and ocean temperatures, changes in wind patterns and shoreline erosion. The perceptions of the fishers were compared to the available scientific data, and correlations were found with rainfall, wind speed and air and ocean temperatures. New hypotheses were raised based on the perceptions of fishers about sea level, coastal currents and sea conditions such as the hypothesis that the sea has become calmer. These perceived changes have positive and negative effects on the yields and livelihoods of fishers. The present work is the first evaluation of the perceptions of fishers on climate and ocean change and brings new understandings of climate-fishery-human interactions as well as provides inputs for future adaptation plans. 相似文献
20.
A steady-state Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stoke computational fluid dynamics (CFD) investigation of boundary-layer flow over a major portion of downtown Abu Dhabi is conducted. The results are used to derive the shear stress and characterize the logarithmic region for eight sub-domains, where the sub-domains overlap and are overlaid in the streamwise direction. They are characterized by a high frontal area index initially, which decreases significantly beyond the fifth sub-domain. The plan area index is relatively stable throughout the domain. For each sub-domain, the estimated local roughness length and displacement height derived from CFD results are compared to prevalent empirical formulations. We further validate and tune a mixing-length model proposed by Coceal and Belcher (Q J R Meteorol Soc 130:1349–1372, 2004). Finally, the in-canopy wind-speed attenuation is analysed as a function of fetch. It is shown that, while there is some room for improvement in Macdonald’s empirical formulations (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 97:25–45, 2000), Coceal and Belcher’s mixing model in combination with the resolution method of Di Sabatino et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 127:131–151, 2008) can provide a robust estimation of the average wind speed in the logarithmic region. Within the roughness sublayer, a properly parametrized Cionco exponential model is shown to be quite accurate. 相似文献