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《世界地震工程》2017,(3)
地震是我国最常见的自然灾害之一,强烈的地震往往会引起震区内大量建筑物倒塌或损害。桥梁是是社会生命线工程的重要构成部分,也是地震中最容易破坏的部件。如需对震区桥梁震害损失、交通可靠性、桥梁加固优化以及救援应急决策等方面研究,需要进行桥梁震前的震害评估。传统的震前震区桥梁震害预测的方法或多或少存在主观性的因素,且存在评估结果稳定性不高的情况。借助投影寻踪模型数理统计聚类方法,构建了基于投影寻踪方法的生命线桥梁震害预测模型,结合粒子群计算机算法优化投影方向参数,将桥梁震害预测的多维评价指标投影计算成一维数值,并根据投影值的大小以及置信区间对桥梁的震害进行预测,通过两组数据实验验证模型,结果基本达到了预期,泛化能力较好。 相似文献
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变异函数是地统计学中区域化变量空间结构分析和空间局部插值的主要分析工具.理论变异函数模型的获取是地质统计学中的基础性工作,它是了解区域化变量的变异特征、进一步对地质统计学计算的必要环节.针对现有的理论变异函数的拟合方法,如人工拟合法、线性规划拟合法、加权多项式拟合法、目标规划拟合法等的不足之处,充分利用粒子群优化算法在求解非线性优化问题时具有的全局寻优的特点,提出基于粒子群优化的理论变异函数拟合方法.在实例应用中,分别利用粒子群优化算法和加权多项式拟合方法进行理论变异函数拟合,交叉验证结果表明粒子群优化算法预测精度较高,具有较强的稳健性. 相似文献
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磁法反演属于非线性最优化问题,具有多变量、目标函数多极值、反演多解性等特点,因此,需要稳定的和高效的优化反演算法.粒子群优化已开始被用于地球物理反演计算,但是对于高维数、多峰值函数,粒子群的收敛精度不高,容易陷入局部极值.如果将混沌局部搜索和粒子群优化的优势相结合,通过将种群搜索过程对应为混沌轨道的遍历过程,可使标准粒子群优化的搜索过程具有避免陷入局部极小的能力.本文利用混沌-粒子群优化用于磁法反演计算.数据试验结果表明,该方法可以用于磁法数据的地球物理非线性反演,并且在一定程度上优于标准粒子群优化方法. 相似文献
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粒子群优化算法（PSO）是模仿鸟群寻找食物的社会行为的一种全局最优化算法,在多维空间函数寻优、动态目标寻优等方面有着收敛速度快、解质量高且需要设置的参数较少等优点.本文在研究常规粒子群优化算法的基础上,对常规的粒子群算法进行了改进,提出了一种新的惯性权重ω参数振荡递减策略,加快了PSO算法的收敛速度,构造的新算法称为阻尼粒子群优化算法.在MATLAB 6.5 编程环境中对阻尼PSO算法进行了数值实验,并对大地电磁测深的理论模型和实测数据进行了反演试算,结果表明,阻尼PSO算法不依赖于初始模型、能够搜索到全局极值,不易陷入局部极值,是一种快速有效的地球物理反演方法. 相似文献
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针对地震预测中定量计算的困难性,利用地震前兆异常高维数据特征,研究一种基于粒子群聚类算法的地震预报模型。该模型输入为条带、空区、短水准等14项异常指标数据,输出为震级分类。模型设定聚类平均距离为粒子群算法的评价函数,发掘分析地震前兆数据与地震震级的关系。结果表明该模型能有效地根据地震前兆数据预测地震震级,与传统聚类k-means算法模型相比,稳定性强,预报准确性更高。历史地震数据实例研究表明,本文提出的模型充分利用了粒子群算法的高鲁棒性、高适应性和群体智能的协同策略,是改进地震预报效能的途径之一。 相似文献
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地震前兆综合预测支持向量机模型研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
该文介绍了支持向量机算法的原理与回归方法。 采用支持向量机中的非线性回归算法与理论公式产生的多维样本, 对其进行了数值仿真实验。 利用该方法和地震前兆异常建立了最佳地震综合预测模型, 对获得的最佳模型进行了内符检验, 得出最佳模型的预测结果与实际震例的地震震级基本一致。 综合分析认为, 支持向量机无论在学习或者预测精度方面不但具有很大的优越性和具有较强的外推泛化能力, 而且基于支持向量机回归算法建立的地震前兆综合预测模型是可行的, 其获得的知识可较为准确地实现对主震震级的综合预测。 相似文献
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投影寻踪聚类(PPC)是投影寻踪和非分层聚类方法的综合,它同时尝试分类数据和寻找聚类结构的低维有代表性的特征。对于本项研究,Richard J．Bolton Richard J．B提出一个基于正交标准变量(考虑样本的大小)的投影寻踪指教和判断投影寻踪聚类的最优类别数的方法对新疆地区地震活动作聚类分析,模拟聚类结构。我出不同区域的有效的参量组合结构,判断后续聚类结构,对未来地震大小做出预测。通过对由不同的时间窗长和滑动步长的地震活动性自变量的PP聚类分析,发现短期预测效果不好,而时间窗长分别为12个月和18个月,相应的步长为6个月和12个月的PP聚类效果较好：柯坪地区、乌恰地区的投影寻踪聚类分析的内符检验对应率达60％以上。通过对比分析,认为取时间窗长为18个月的结果更好些。这与自变量的选取有关——地震活动性参量主要是反映中期震兆信息。 相似文献
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Anxu Wu Xiangdong Lin Changsheng Jiang Yongxian Zhang Xiaodong Zhang Mingxiao Li Ping&# an Li 《地震科学（英文版）》2009,22(5):563-574
In the research of projection pursuit for seismic comprehensive forecast, the algorithm of projection pursuit regression (PPR) is one of most applicable methods. But generally, the algorithm structure of the PPR is very complicated. By partial smooth regressions for many times, it has a large amount of calculation and complicated extrapolation, so it is easily trapped in partial solution. On the basis of the algorithm features of the PPR method, some solutions are given as below to aim at some shortcomings in the PPR calculation: to optimize project direction by using particle swarm optimization instead of Gauss-Newton algorithm, to simplify the optimal process with fitting ridge function by using Hermitian polynomial instead of piecewise linear regression. The overall optimal ridge function can be obtained without grouping the parameter optimization. The modeling capability and calculating accuracy of projection pursuit method are tested by means of numerical emulation technique on the basis of particle swarm optimization and Hermitian polynomial, and then applied to the seismic comprehensive forecasting models of poly-dimensional seismic time series and general disorder seismic samples. The calculation and analysis show that the projection pursuit model in this paper is characterized by simplicity, celerity and effectiveness. And this model is approved to have satisfactory effects in the real seismic comprehensive forecasting, which can be regarded as a comprehensive analysis method in seismic comprehensive forecast. 相似文献
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Joint PP‐ and PSV‐wave amplitudes versus offset and azimuth inversion for fracture compliances in horizontal transversely isotropic media 
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下载免费PDF全文 We propose a robust approach for the joint inversion of PP‐ and PSV‐wave angle gathers along different azimuths for the elastic properties of the homogeneous isotropic host rock and excess compliances due to the presence of fractures. Motivated by the expression of fluid content indicator in fractured reservoirs and the sensitivity of Lamé impedances to fluid type, we derive PP‐ and PSV‐wave reflection coefficients in terms of Lamé impedances, density, and fracture compliances for an interface separating two horizontal transversely isotropic media. Following a Bayesian framework, we construct an objective function that includes initial models. We employ the iteratively reweighted least‐squares algorithm to solve the inversion problem to estimate unknown parameters (i.e., Lamé impedances, density, and fracture compliances) from PP‐ and PSV‐wave angle gathers along different azimuths. Synthetic tests reveal that the unknown parameters estimated using the joint inversion approach match true values better than those estimated using a PP‐wave amplitude inversion only. A real data test indicates that reasonable results for subsurface fracture detection are obtained from the joint inversion approach. 相似文献
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A model for simulation of monthly streamflow series is developed by a multiple regression approach, which includes both precipitation and flow, instead of the simple regression Markovian model, which is based on the antecedent flow alone. 相似文献
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Hydro‐climatic impacts in water resources systems are typically assessed by forcing a hydrologic model with outputs from general circulation models (GCMs) or regional climate models. The challenges of this approach include maintaining a consistent energy budget between climate and hydrologic models and also properly calibrating and verifying the hydrologic models. Subjective choices of loss, flow routing, snowmelt and evapotranspiration computation methods also increase watershed modelling uncertainty and thus complicate impact assessment. An alternative approach, particularly appealing for ungauged basins or locations where record lengths are short, is to predict selected streamflow quantiles directly from meteorological variable output from climate models using regional regression models that also include physical basin characteristics. In this study, regional regression models are developed for the western Great Lakes states using ordinary least squares and weighted least squares techniques applied to selected Great Lakes watersheds. Model inputs include readily available downscaled GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. The model results provide insights to potential model weaknesses, including comparatively low runoff predictions from continuous simulation models that estimate potential evapotranspiration using temperature proxy information and comparatively high runoff projections from regression models that do not include temperature as an explanatory variable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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吸收系数和后向散射系数是水体的固有光学特性参数,在探测水体中各组分浓度的过程中起着至关重要的作用.但通常组分固有光学特性的测定是一个操作复杂且费时费力的过程.提出了一种利用已知组分浓度和相应的反射光谱的水体样本来推定水体中各组分的吸收和后向散射系数的算法,并利用生物光学模型产生的模拟光谱数据对算法的合理性进行了验证.结果表明,在理想的实验条件下(反射光谱满足机理模型,且选取的训练样本相互独立),可以高精度地反演出各组分的固有光学特性,从而证实了本算法在理论卜的合理性. 相似文献
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Yimin Sun Thierry Tonellot Bahaaeldin Kamel Andrey Bakulin 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(3):711-723
Statics are an effective approach to correct for complex velocity variations in the near surface, but so far, to a large extent, a general and robust automatic static correction method is still lacking. In this paper, we propose a novel two‐phase automatic static correction method, which is capable of handling both primary wave statics (PP statics) and converted‐wave statics (S‐wave statics). Our method is purely data driven, and it aims at maximizing stacking power in the target zone of the stack image. Low‐frequency components of the data are analysed first using an advanced genetic algorithm to estimate seed statics and the time structure for an event of interest, and then the original full‐band data are further aligned via the back‐and‐forth coordinate descent method using the seed statics as initial values and the time structure for event alignment guidance. We apply our new method to two field datasets, i.e., one for 2D PP static correction and the other for 3D S‐wave static correction. 相似文献
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弹性参数作为反映岩石弹性性质的参数,在储层预测中具有重要作用.常规弹性参数的构建主要基于PP波地震信息.PP波与PS波地震振幅因其携带的信息不同,对岩性与流体的敏感性也不同.本文提出联合利用PP波与PS波弹性阻抗以及角度信息构建角弹性参数来预测有利储层.首先,对常规PS波弹性阻抗方程进行重新推导,使得PS波弹性阻抗取值的数量级不随角度变化且能够与PP波弹性阻抗具备形式上的匹配;其次,根据常规弹性参数构建公式,采用PP波弹性阻抗、PS波弹性阻抗替代纵波阻抗、横波阻抗,提出角弹性参数的概念及构建公式,从而将角度信息引入到弹性参数的构建中;最后,在PP波与PS波弹性阻抗反演的基础上构建得到对储层敏感性较强的角弹性参数,利用角弹性参数的取值特征预测有利储层.模型与实际资料测试均表明角弹性参数具备较高的储层敏感性. 相似文献
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PP波和PS波联合反演方法作为有效的地震技术,比单纯纵波反演精度要高,能够提高地震储层识别的精度.以Russell近似理论为基础,推导了新的转换波AVO近似公式,双层模型界面的反射特征数值模拟显示,新公式具有较高的近似精度,且具备直接反演流体因子f、剪切模量μ和密度ρ等参数的优势,有效避免间接反演带来的误差.结合纵横波联合反演理论,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的新型联合反演算法.在实际应用中,对纵波和转换波角道集进行同相轴匹配处理,综合利用纵波和转换波资料携带的信息,实现基于Russell近似的多波联合反演.模型数据和实际资料测试结果表明,反演结果与真实值或测井结果匹配度较高,证实该方法真实有效. 相似文献
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在VTI介质中,由于引入了各向异性参数使得多分量多参数地震反演问题的非线性程度显著增加,因此采用传统的权重加权法构建单目标函数进行反演得到的反演结果往往并不理想.本文以反射率法为基础,结合快速非支配排序遗传算法研究了一种VTI介质的多分量叠前联合反演方法.该方法以反射率法为正演方程,应用互相关原理构建PP波和PSV波的多目标函数,进而采用快速非支配排序遗传算法全局寻优获得VTI介质的厚度、纵横波速度、密度和各向异性参数等多个参数.在正演的过程中,反射率法可以考虑几何扩散、吸收衰减、透射损失、多次波以及纵横波旅行时不匹配等地震波传播效应,更能精确地描述地震波在地下地层中的真实传播情况;在反演的过程中,快速非支配排序遗传算法可以在不引入权重系数的条件下同时优化多个目标函数,获得联合反演问题的Pareto最优解,既不添加权重系数影响又充分利用多分量地震数据.模型测试结果验证了该反演方法的有效性和可行性. 相似文献
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Inverse modeling is a useful tool in ground water flow modeling studies. The most frequent difficulties encountered when using this technique are the lack of conditioning information (e.g., heads and transmissivities), the uncertainty in available data, and the nonuniqueness of the solution. These problems can be addressed and quantified through a stochastic Monte Carlo approach. The aim of this work was to compare the applicability of two stochastic inverse modeling approaches in a field-scale application. The multi-scaling (MS) approach uses a downscaling parameterization procedure that is not based on geostatistics. The pilot point (PP) approach uses geostatistical random fields as initial transmissivity values and an experimental variogram to condition the calibration. The studied area (375 km2) is part of a regional aquifer, northwest of Montreal in the St. Lawrence lowlands (southern Québec). It is located in limestone, dolomite, and sandstone formations, and is mostly a fractured porous medium. The MS approach generated small errors on heads, but the calibrated transmissivity fields did not reproduce the variogram of observed transmissivities. The PP approach generated larger errors on heads but better reproduced the spatial structure of observed transmissivities. The PP approach was also less sensitive to uncertainty in head measurements. If reliable heads are available but no transmissivities are measured, the MS approach provides useful results. If reliable transmissivities with a well inferred spatial structure are available, then the PP approach is a better alternative. This approach however must be used with caution if measured transmissivities are not reliable. 相似文献