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1.
G. K. Rangarajan 《Journal of Earth System Science》1994,103(4):439-448
Homogeneous Indian Monsoon region rainfall for the epoch 1871–1990 has been analysed using Singular Spectral Analysis. It
is shown that the HIM time series is simple in structure with only the annual oscillation and its first two harmonics accounting
for almost the entire variability. Longer period oscillations related to lunar tidal forcing, solar activity and quasibiennial
variation are conspicuously absent. It is also shown that the singular spectral decomposition is closely similar to complex
demodulation and thus provides variations in the signals which evolve only slowly with time. As the rainfall series is marked
by several jerky changes, predictability of HIM rainfall through the principal components derived from SSA appears impossible. 相似文献
2.
Nityanand Singh 《Journal of Earth System Science》1995,104(1):1-36
Large-scale interannual variability of the northern summer southwest monsoon over India is studied by examining its variation
in the dry area during the period 1871–1984. On the mean summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total) chart the 800 mm
isohyet divides the country into two nearly equal halves, named as dry area (monsoon rainfall less than 800 mm) and wet area
(monsoon rainfall greater than 800 mm). The dry area/wet area shows large variations from one year to another, and is considered
as an index for assessing the large-scale performance of the Indian summer monsoon. Statistical and fluctuation characteristics
of the summer monsoon dry area (SMDA) are reported.
To identify possible causes of variation in the Indian summer monsoon, the correlation between the summer monsoon dry area
and eleven regional/global circulation parameters is examined. The northern hemisphere surface air temperature, zonal/hemispheric/global
surface air and upper air temperatures, Southern Oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial lower stratosphere,
April 500-mb ridge along 75°E over India, the Indian surface air temperature and the Bombay sea level pressure showed significant
correlation.
A new predictor parameter that is preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of a few selected stations over India has been suggested
in the present study. The stations have been selected by applying the objective technique ‘selecting a subset of few gauges
whose mean monsoon rainfall of the preceding year has shown the highest correlation coefficient (CC) with the SMDA’. Bankura
(Gangetic West Bengal), Cuddalore (Tamil Nadu) and Anupgarh (West Rajasthan) entered the selection showing a CC of 0.724.
Using a dependent sample of 1951–1980 a predictive model (multiple CC = 0.745) has also been developed for the SMDA with preceding
year mean monsoon rainfall of the three selected stations and the sea level pressure tendency at Darwin from Jan–Feb to Mar–May
as independent parameters. 相似文献
3.
Utilizing data for the long period 1871–1990, variation in the relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) and tendencies of the global factors. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the sea surface temperature (SST) over eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean has been explored. The periods for which relationships exist have been identified. Tendencies from
the season SON (Sept-Oct-Nov) to season DJF (Dec-Jan-Feb) and from DJF to MAM (Mar-Apr-May) before the Indian summer monsoon
are indicated respectively by SOIT-2/SSTT-2 and SOIT-l/SSTT-1, current tendency from JJA (June-July-Aug) to SON, by SOIT0/SSTT0,
tendencies from SON to DJF and DJF to MAM following monsoon, by SOIT1/SSTT1 and SOIT2/SSTT2 respectively.
It is observed that while the relationships of IMR with SSTT-1, SSTT0 and SSTT2 exist almost throughout the whole period,
that with SOIT-1 exists for 1942–1990, with SOIT0 for 1871–1921 and 1957–1990 and with SOIT2, for 1871–1921 only. The relationships
that exist with SOIT-1, SOIT2, SSTT-1, SSTT2 and with SSTT0 (for period 1931–1990) are found to be very good and those that
exist with SOIT0 for periods 1871–1921 and 1957–90 and for SSTT0 for the period 1871–1930 are good. It is thus seen that the
relationships of SOIT-1, SOIT0 and SOIT2 with IMR do not correspond well with those of SSTT-1, SSTT0 and SSTT2 with IMR respectively,
even though SOI and SST are closely related to each other for all the seasons. SOIT-1 and SSTT-1 can continue to be used as
predictors for IMRDuring the whole period, IMR is found to play a passive, i.e. of being influenced or anticipated by SSTT-1
as well as an active role, i.e. of influencing or anticipating SSTT2. This implies a complex and perhaps non-linear interaction
between IMR and SST tendency from DJF to MAM. Possibly, this is a part of the larger interaction between Asian monsoon rainfall
and the tropical Pacific. A possible physical mechanism for the interaction is indicated. 相似文献
4.
The predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from pre-season circulation indices is explored from observations during
1939–91. The predictand is the all-India average of June–September precipitation NIR, and the precursors examined are the
latitude position of the 500 mb ridge along 75°E in April (L), the pressure tendency April minus January at Darwin (DPT),
March-April-May temperature at six stations in west central India (T6), the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the northeastern
Arabian Sea in May (ASM), SST anomaly in the Arabian Sea in January (ANJ), northern hemisphere temperature anomaly in January–February
(NHT), and Eurasian snow cover in January (SNOW). Monsoon rainfall tends to be enhanced with a more northerly ridge position,
small Darwin pressure tendency, warmer pre-season conditions, and reduced winter snow cover. However, relationships have varied
considerably over the past half-century, with the strongest associations during 1950–80, and a drastic weakening in the 1980s.
Four prediction models were constructed based on stepwise multiple regression, using as predictors combinations of L, DPT,
T6, ASM, and NHT, with 1939–68 as “dependent” dataset, or training period, and 1969–91 as “independent” dataset or verification
period. For the 1969–80 portion of the verification period calculated and observed NIR values agreed closely, with the models
explaining 74–79% of the variance. By contrast, after 1980 predictions deteriorated drastically, with the explained variance
for the 1969–89 time span dropping to 25–31%. The monsoon rainfall of 1990 and 1991 turned out to be again highly predictable
from models based on stepwise multiple regression and linear discriminant analysis and using as input L + DPT or L + DPT +
NHT, and with this encouragement an experimental real-time forecast was issued of the 1992 monsoon rainfall.
These results underline the need for investigations into decadal-scale changes in the general circulation setting and raise
concern for the continued success of seasonal forecasting. 相似文献
5.
D. R. Pattanaik 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(3):635-646
Between 1941 and 2002 there has been a decreasing trend in the frequency of monsoon disturbances (MDs) during the summer monsoon
season (June–September). This downwards trend is significant at the 99.9% level for the main monsoon phase (July–August) and
the withdrawal phase (September); however, it is not significant during the onset phase (June). The variability in rainfall
over the homogeneous regions of India on the sub-seasonal scale also shows a significant decreasing trend with respect to
the amount of rainfall over Northwest India (NWI) and Central India (CEI) during all three phases of the monsoon. Meteorological
observations reveal that there has been an eastward shift of the rainfall belt with time over the Indian region on the seasonal
scale and that this shift is more prominent during the withdrawal phase. This decreasing trend in MDs together with its restricted
westerly movement seem to be directly related to the decreasing trend in rainfall over CEI during both the main monsoon and
withdrawal phases and over NWI during the withdrawal phase. The low-level circulation anomalies observed during two periods
(period-I: 1951–1976; period-ii: 1977–2002) are in accordance with the changes in rainfall distribution, with comparatively
more (less) rainfall falling over NWI, CEI and Southern Peninsular India (SPI) during period-I (period-ii), and are accompanied
by a stronger (weaker) monsoon circulation embedded with an anomalous cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over CEI during
the main monsoon and withdrawal phases. During the onset phase, completely opposite circulation anomalies are observed during
both periods, and these are associated with more (less) rainfall over NWI, CEI and SPI during period-ii (period-I). 相似文献
6.
The time series of Indian summer monsoon rainfall for the period 1871–1989 has been analysed using the method of deterministic
chaos. It is found that a strange attractor underlies the time series implying the existence of a prediction function. This
function has been approximated by a second-degree polynomial, involving the rainfalls of the past seven years and the coefficients
have been estimated by least squares fit. The interannual variations of actual and computed rainfalls have been presented
for a comparative study. 相似文献
7.
B. Parthasarathy 《Journal of Earth System Science》1984,93(4):371-385
Analysis of summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall series of 29 subdivisions based on a fixed number of raingauges (306
stations) has been made for the 108-year period 1871–1978 for interannual and long-term variability of the rainfall. Statistical
tests show that the rainfall series of 29 sub-divisions are homogeneous, Gaussian-distributed and do not contain any persistence.
The highest and the lowest normal rainfall of 284 and 26 cm are observed over coastal Karnataka and west Rajasthan sub-divisions
respectively. The interannual variability (range) varies over different sub-divisions, the lowest being 55 and the highest
231% of the normal rainfall, for south Assam and Saurashtra and Kutch sub-divisions respectively. High spatial coherency is
observed between neighbouring sub-divisions; northeast region and northern west and peninsular Indian sub-divisions show oppositic
correlation tendency. Significant change in mean rainfall of six sub-divisions is noticed. Correlogram and spectrum analysis
show the presence of 14-year and QBO cycles in a few sub-divisional rainfall series. 相似文献
8.
Temporal distribution of southwest monsoon (June –September) rainfall is very useful for the country’s agriculture and food
grain production. It contributes more than 75% of India’s annual rainfall. In view of this, an attempt has been made here
to understand the performance of the monthly rainfall for June, July, August and September when the seasonal rainfall is reported
as excess, deficient or normal. To know the dependence of seasonal rainfall on monthly rainfall, the probabilities of occurrence
of excess, deficient and normal monsoon when June, July, August and also June + July and August + September rainfall is reported
to be excess or deficient, are worked out using the long homogenous series of 124 years (1871-–1994) data of monthly and seasonal
rainfall of 29 meteorological sub-divisions of the plain regions of India.
In excess monsoon years, the average percentage contribution of each monsoon month to the long term mean (1871–1994) seasonal
rainfall (June –September) is more than that of the normal while in the deficient years it is less than normal. This is noticed
in all 29 meteorological sub-divisions. From the probability analysis, it is seen that there is a rare possibility of occurrence
of seasonal rainfall to be excess/deficient when the monthly rainfall of any month is deficient/excess. 相似文献
9.
The time evolution of atmospheric parameters on intraseasonal time scale in the eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) is studied during
the summer monsoon seasons of 1998–2003 using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) data. This is done
using the spectral and wavelet analysis. Analysis shows that over EAS, total precipitable water vapour (TWV) and sea surface
wind speed (SWS) have a periodicity of 8–15 days, 15–30 days and 30–60 days during the monsoon season. Significant power is
seen in the 8–15-day time scale in TWV during onset and retreat of the summer monsoon. Analysis indicates that the timings
of the intensification of 8–15, 15–30, and 30–60 days oscillations have a profound effect on the evolution of the daily rainfall
over west coast of India. The positive and negative phases of these oscillations are directly related to the active and dry
spells of rainfall along the west coast of India. The spectral analysis shows interannual variation of TWV and SWS. Heavy
rainfall events generally occur over the west coast of India when positive phases of both 30–60 days and 15–30 days modes
of TWV and SWS are simultaneously present. 相似文献
10.
Analysis of fifty four (1951–2004) years of daily energetics of zonal waves derived from NCEP/NCAR wind (u and υ) data and daily rainfall received over the Indian landmass (real time data) during southwest monsoon season (1 June–30 September)
indicate that energetics (momentum transport and kinetic energy) of lower tropospheric ultra-long waves (waves 1 and 2) of
low latitudes hold a key to intra-seasonal variability of monsoon rainfall over India.
Correlation coefficient between climatology of daily (122 days) energetics of ultra-long waves and climatology of daily rainfall
over Indian landmass is 0.9. The relation is not only significant but also has a predictive potential. The normalised plot
of both the series clearly indicates that the response period of rainfall to the energetics is of 5–10 days during the onset
phase and 4–7 days during the withdrawal phase of monsoon over India. During the established phase of monsoon, both the series
move hand-in-hand. Normalised plot of energetics of ultra-long waves and rainfall for individual year do not show marked deviation
with respect to climatology. These results are first of its kind and are useful for the short range forecast of rainfall over
India. 相似文献
11.
Some statistical properties of the summer monsoon seasonal rainfall for India during the last 100 years (1881–1980) are presented.
The most recent decade of 1971–1980 shows the lowest value of standard-decadal average monsoon rainfall (86.40 cm) and is
also characterised by the second highest value of coefficient of variation in monsoon rainfall (12.4 %). The combined last
two standard-decadal period of 1961–1980 was the period of the largest coefficient of variation and the lowest average monsoon
rainfall for India.
The possible influence of global climatic variability on the performance of the monsoon is also examined. Analyses of correlation
coefficient show that a statistically significant positive relationship with a time-lag of about six months exists between
monsoon rainfall and northern hemispheric surface air temperature. A cooler northern hemisphere during January/February leads
to a poor monsoon.
All the major drought years during the last 3 decades had much cooler January/February periods over the northern hemisphere—1972
having the coldest January/February with a temperature departure of −0.94°C and the most disastrous monsoon failure. 相似文献
12.
G. Nageswara Rao 《Journal of Earth System Science》1999,108(4):327-332
Rainfall variability over a river basin has greater impact on the water resource in that basin. With this in view, the variability
of the monsoon rainfall over the Godavari river basin has been studied on different time scales. As expected, the monsoon
rainfall in Godavari basin is more variable (17%) than the all-India monsoon rainfall (11%) during the period of study (1951–90).
Similarly, inter-annual variability of the monsoon rainfall on smaller time scales is found to be still higher and increases
while going on from seasonal to daily scales. An interesting observation is that the intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon
rainfall has a significant negative relationship (CC= −0.53) with the total seasonal rainfall in the basin. 相似文献
13.
Sea-breeze-initiated rainfall over the east coast of India during the Indian southwest monsoon 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Matthew Simpson Hari Warrior Sethu Raman P. A. Aswathanarayana U. C. Mohanty R. Suresh 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(2):401-413
Sea-breeze-initiated convection and precipitation have been investigated along the east coast of India during the Indian southwest
monsoon season. Sea-breeze circulation was observed on approximately 70–80% of days during the summer months (June–August)
along the Chennai coast. Average sea-breeze wind speeds are greater at rural locations than in the urban region of Chennai.
Sea-breeze circulation was shown to be the dominant mechanism initiating rainfall during the Indian southwest monsoon season.
Approximately 80% of the total rainfall observed during the southwest monsoon over Chennai is directly related to convection
initiated by sea-breeze circulation. 相似文献
14.
Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very
heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features
of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥125 mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June–September) by analysing
20 years (1980–1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find
out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa.
Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa
in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy
rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low
pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough
extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with
less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It
occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay
followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts
of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS
to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rainfall does not show any significant
trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the
monsoon months and the season as a whole. 相似文献
15.
Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis
of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951–2007). Active and break events are defined
as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical
area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than −1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at
least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of
the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall. 相似文献
16.
Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) has been attempted over the Narmada Catchment following a statistical approach.
The catchment has been divided into five sub-regions for the development of QPF models with a maximum lead-time of 24 hours.
For this purpose the data of daily rainfall from 56 raingauge stations, twice daily observations on different surface meteorological
parameters from 28 meteorological observatories and upper air data from 11 aerological stations for the nine monsoon seasons
of 1972–1980 have been utilized. The horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture divergence
are computed using the kinematic method at different pressure levels and used as independent variables along with the rainfall
and surface meteorological parameters. Multiple linear regression equations have been developed using the stepwise procedure
separately with actual and square root and log-transformed rainfall using 8-year data (1972–1979). When these equations were
verified with an independent data for the monsoon season of 1980, it was found that the transformed rainfall equations fared
much better compared to the actual rainfall equations. The performance of the forecasts of QPF model compared to the climatological
and persistence forecasts has been assessed by computing the verification scores using the forecasts for the monsoon season
of 1980. 相似文献
17.
The interannual variability of all-India summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall and its teleconnections with the southern
oscillation index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the eastern equatorial Pacific ocean have been examined for the period 1871–1978 for different seasons (i.e.,
winter, spring, summer and autumn). The relationship (correlation coefficient) between all-India summer monsoon rainfall andSOI for different seasons is positive and highly significant. Further examination of 10-, 20- and 30-year sliding window lengths’
correlations, brings out the highly consistent and significant character of the relationships. The relationship between all-India
monsoon rainfall andSST for different seasons is negative and is significant at 1 % level or above. Drought years are characterised by negative anomalies
ofSOI and positive anomalies ofSST and vice versa with flood years. The relationship betweenSOI andSST is negative and significant at 0.1 % level.
The relationships between all-India summer monsoon rainfall,SOI and sst are expected to improve our understanding of the interannual variability of the summer monsoon. 相似文献
18.
The statistical relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, onset
dates of monsoon and the index of mid latitude, (35° to 70°N) meridional circulation at 500 hPa level over different sectors
and hemisphere based on 19 years (1971–1989) data, have been examined. The results indicate that (i) the summer monsoon rainfalls
over all India, northwest India and peninsular India show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional
index during previous January over sector 45°W to 90°E. (ii) The summer monsoon rainfalls over all India and peninsular India
show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional index during previous December over sector 90°E to
160°E, (iii) The summer monsoon rainfall over northwest India shows a significant direct relationship with the meridional
index during previous May over sector 160°E to 45°W.
Significant negative relationships are also observed between the meridional circulation indices of previous October (sector
3 and 4), previous December (sectors 1, 3 and 4), previous winter season (sector 3 and 4) and the onset dates of summer monsoon
over India. The meridional circulation index thus can have some possible use for long range forecasting of monsoon rainfall
over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, as well as the onset dates of monsoon. 相似文献
19.
Using a historical database (1952–2007) of sea surface temperature (SST) from a subtropical high-controlled area (110°E–140°E,
15°N–35°N) of the west Pacific Ocean and the precipitation over Hunan Province of southeast China, we analyzed time series
variations of precipitation in relation to the East Asian summer monsoon and a global warming setting. The results show that
there has been a significant increase in SST of the subtropical high-controlled area in the recent 50 years. Although the
increase in annual summer monsoon precipitation during the same period has been subtle over Hunan province, seasonal rainfall
distribution has obviously changed, represented by a reduction in May, but a significant increase through June to August,
especially in July. We suggest that the mechanism of seasonal redistribution of monsoon precipitation is primarily due to
the increasing SST that delays the intrusion of the west Pacific Subtropical High, therefore leading to a postponing of migration
of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall belt inland and northward. 相似文献
20.
The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa, a state on the eastern coast of India, is more significantly related than Indian
summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) to the cyclonic disturbances developing over the Bay of Bengal. Orissa experiences floods and
droughts very often due to variation in the characteristics of these disturbances. Hence, an attempt was made to find out
the inter-annual variability in the rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic disturbances
affecting Orissa during monsoon season (June–September). For this purpose, different statistical characteristics, such as
mean, coefficient of variation, trends and periodicities in the rainfall and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic
disturbances affecting Orissa, were analysed from 100 years (1901–2000) of data. The basic objective of the study was to find
out the contribution of inter-annual variability in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances to the inter-annual variability
of monsoon rainfall over Orissa.
The relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa shows
temporal variation. The correlation between them has significantly decreased since the 1950s. The variation in their relationship
is mainly due to the variation in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa. The variability of both rainfall
and total cyclonic disturbances has been above normal since the 1960s, leading to more floods and droughts over Orissa during
recent years. The inter-annual variability of seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting
Orissa during monsoon season show a quasi-biennial oscillation period of 2–2.8 years. There is least impact of El Nino southern
oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual variability of both the seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of monsoon depressions/total
cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa. 相似文献