首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 359 毫秒
1.
Ground-Motion Hazard Values for Northern Algeria   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
This study examines distinctive features of ground motion parameters in northern Algeria. An initial computation of seismic hazard in terms of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at different periods, damped at 5%, is carried out for three different types of soils (rock, stiff soils and soft soils) for return periods of 100 and 475 years. In addition, uniform hazard spectra (UHS) are computed for these two return periods at several locations in the region. Then, the UHS computed for different soil types are proposed as a starting point to define elastic design spectra for building-code purposes. We have used the well-known Newmark-Hall approach. As proposed in the most recent International Building Codes, the SA (0.2 s) value is used to establish the spectral region for lower periods (region controlled by acceleration), whereas the SA (1.0 s) value is used to establish the spectral region for intermediate periods (region controlled by velocity). We also obtained important relations, dependent on site condition, between SA (0.2 s), SA (1.0 s) or SAmax values, and the PGA, for both return periods of 100 and 475 years. Other relationships between PGA or SAmax values have also been derived for return periods of 100 and 475 years, in this case independent of site condition.  相似文献   

2.
A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Andalusia (Southern Spain) in terms of peak ground acceleration, PGA, and spectral accelerations, SA(T), is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA, making use of Intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard was here calculated in terms of magnitude, using published spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we considered different ground-motion models for the Atlantic sources, since the attenuation of those motions seems to be slower, as evidenced in the case of the extensive macroseismic areas of earthquakes like those occurred in the years 1755, 1969 and 2007. A comprehensive review of the seismic catalogue and of the seismogenic models proposed for the region was carried out, including those for Northern Africa, which is part of the influence area. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for six different seismic source zonings and five different ground-motion attenuation relationships. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA (0.2 s) and SA (1 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) maps, for the 475-year return period were first obtained in rock sites. A geotechnical classification and amplification factors were proposed and new hazard maps including local effects were represented, showing PGA values ranging from 24 to 370 cm/s2 for the whole Andalusian territory, with the highest expected values (PGA > 300 cm/s2) in some parts of the Granada Province and in the town of Vélez Málaga. Lowest values (PGA < 50 cm/s2) correspond to some towns of the Huelva and Córdoba provinces. The inclusion of soil effects provides a more detailed picture of the actual hazard the region is subjected to.  相似文献   

3.
A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA(T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA(T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.  相似文献   

4.
Fukushima nuclear accident caused widespread concern of earthquake initiated severe accident. Under this background, China nuclear utilities carried out research and application of seismic margin assessment(SMA)approach to evaluate the seismic margin of the existing nuclear power plants(NPP)by different spectra shape of seismic margin earthquake(SME). By reviewing the method used to determine SME of operational NPP in central and eastern United States(CEUS), this paper analyzed the seismic hazard characteristic of China NPP sites, contrasted the design basis ground motion between NPP in CEUS and China, and suggested giving priority to evaluating the seismic margin of operational NPP that adopted the improved second generation technology for the urgency and importance of assessment on the actual seismic capacity of NPP. Comparing RG1.60 spectrum to normalized site-specific SL-2 level acceleration spectra, we found that some normalized spectra overtook the RG1.60's in high frequency range, so it is not always adequate to scale RG1.60 spectrum to evaluate the seismic margin for sites of the improved second generation NPP. We selected a sample site whose site-specific SL-2 level ground motion is close to the standard design of improved second generation NPP(0.2g scaled RG1.60 spectrum)to determine the seismic margin earthquake by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method of the sample site. Compared to the given PGA(0.3g)scaled scenario earthquake ground motions and the uniform hazard response spectrum(UHRS), whose PGA is 0.3g to PGA(0.3g)scaled standard spectra(median NUREG/CR0098 spectrum and RG1.60 spectrum), the results demonstrated that uniform hazard response spectrum and scaled scenario earthquake ground motions are both significantly higher than the PGA scaled median NUREG/CR0098 spectrum, and all the three spectra are enveloped by PGA scaled RG1.60 spectrum. Then, this paper suggests adopting the uniform hazard response spectrum or scenario earthquake ground motions to evaluate the seismic margin of improved second generation NPP beyond site SL-2 ground motion; and to evaluate the seismic margin of improved second generation NPP beyond standard design, we recommend to use PGA scaled RG1.60 spectrum.  相似文献   

5.
Hybrid-Empirical Ground Motion Estimations for Georgia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Ground motion prediction equations are essential for several purposes ranging from seismic design and analysis to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In seismically active regions without sufficiently strong ground motion data to build empirical models, hybrid models become vital. Georgia does not have sufficiently strong ground motion data to build empirical models. In this study, we have applied the host-totarget method in two regions in Georgia with different source mechanisms. According to the tectonic regime of the target areas, two different regions are chosen as host regions. One of them is in Turkey with the dominant strike-slip source mechanism, while the other is in Iran with the prevalence of reverse-mechanism events. We performed stochastic finite-fault simulations in both host and target areas and employed the hybrid-empirical method as introduced in Campbell (2003). An initial set of hybrid empirical ground motion estimates is obtained for PGA and SA at selected periods for Georgia.  相似文献   

6.
Izmir, the third largest city and one of the major economic centers in Turkey, has more than three million residents and one-half million buildings. The city, located in a seismically active region in western Anatolia, was a subject of the 1997 RADIUS (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disaster) project. In this paper, the seismic hazard of Izmir is investigated through probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. First, the seismic setting of Izmir is presented. Considering the statistics of earthquakes that took place in the region during the period 1900–2005, a simple seismic hazard model is used to facilitate the assessment. To account for modeling uncertainties associated with the values of seismicity parameters, a logic tree procedure is employed in carrying out the seismic hazard computations. The resulting weighted average seismic hazard, presented in terms of peak ground acceleration and associated probability of exceedence, could be considered the “best estimate” of seismic hazard for Izmir. Accordingly, for a return period of 475 years, for rock sites, a PGA value of 0.34 g is calculated. This PGA hazard estimate is close to the current code-recommended design acceleration level for Izmir.  相似文献   

7.
The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is explored to predict peak ground accelerations (PGA) and pseudospectral acceleration (SA) for Mexican inslab and interplate earthquakes. A total of 277 and 418 seismic records with two horizontal components for inslab and interplate earthquakes, respectively, are used to train the ANN models by using an ANN with a feed-forward architecture with a back-propagation learning algorithm. Both ANN with single and two hidden layers are considered. For comparison purposes, the PGA and SA values predicted by the trained ANN models are compared with those estimated with attenuation relations or ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The comparison indicates that the predicted PGA and SA values by the trained ANN models, in general, follow the trends predicted by the GMPEs. However, an extensive verification of the trained models must be conducted before they can be used for seismic hazard and risk analysis since, on occasion, the PGA and SA values predicted by the trained ANN models depart from the behaviour observed from the actual records.  相似文献   

8.
An endeavor is made to compute peak ground horizontal accelerations at bedrock level in the Delhi region due to the seismogenic sources present around Delhi. The entire area is divided into six seismogenic sources for which seismic hazard analysis is carried out using the complete and extreme part of the seismicity data. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard parameters viz., seismic activity rate , b value and maximum probable earthquake M max are made for each zone. The return periods and the probabilities of occurrence of various magnitudes for return periods of 50, 100 and 1000 years are also computed for each zone. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for 20% exceedance in 50 years are then computed for the Delhi region from each zone. The maximum PGA value considering all the zones is 0.34 g, which is due to the Mathura fault zone. The seismogenic zones V and VI, i.e., Mathura fault zone and the Sohna fault zone are observed to be contributing maximum PGA values in the Delhi region governing the isoacceleration contours computed for the region. The seismic zonation map for the PGA values at the bedrock level is obtained for the Delhi region. This can be used directly as input for the microzonation of ground motion at the surface by incorporating the local site conditions.  相似文献   

9.
The seismic zoning map of Turkey that is used in connection with the national seismic design code (versions issued both in 1997 and 2007) is based on a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted more than 20 years ago (Gülkan et al. in En son verilere göre haz?rlanan Türkiye deprem bölgeleri haritas?, Report No: METU/EERC 93-1, 1993). In line with the efforts for the update of the seismic design code, the need aroused for an updated seismic hazard map, incorporating recent data and state-of-the-art methodologies and providing ground motion parameters required for the construction of the design spectra stipulated by the new Turkish Earthquake Design Code. Supported by AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Turkey), a project has been conducted for the country scale assessment of the seismic hazard by probabilistic methods. The present paper describes the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted in connection with this project, incorporating in an area source model, all recently compiled data on seismicity and active faulting, and using a set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations, for both active shallow crustal and subduction regimes, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region. The area sources delineated in the model are fully parameterized in terms of maximum magnitude, depth distribution, predominant strike and dip angles and mechanism of possible ruptures. Resulting ground motion distributions are quantified and presented for PGA and 5 % damped spectral accelerations at T = 0.2 and 1.0 s, associated with return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The full set of seismic hazard curves was also made available for the hazard computation sites. The second part of the study, which is based on a fault source and smoothed seismicity model is covered in Demircioglu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng, (2016).  相似文献   

10.
A proper assessment of seismic hazard is of considerable importance in order to achieve suitable building construction criteria. This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in and around Pakistan (23° N–39° N; 59° E–80° E) in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Ground motion is calculated in terms of PGA for a return period of 475 years using a seismogenic-free zone method of Gumbel’s first asymptotic distribution of extreme values and Monte Carlo simulation. Appropriate attenuation relations of universal and local types have been used in this study. The results show that for many parts of Pakistan, the expected seismic hazard is relatively comparable with the level specified in the existing PGA maps.  相似文献   

11.
We present the regional ground-motion prediction equations for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA), and seismic intensity (MSK scale) for the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes (SE-Carpathians) and territory of Romania. The prediction equations were constructed using the stochastic technique on the basis of the regional Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) source scaling and attenuation models and the generalised site amplification functions. Values of considered ground motion parameters are given as the functions of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicentral distance. The developed ground-motion models were tested and calibrated using the available data from the large Vrancea earthquakes. We suggest to use the presented equations for the rapid estimation of seismic effect after strong earthquakes (Shakemap generation) and seismic hazard assessment, both deterministic and probabilistic approaches.  相似文献   

12.
The objectives of this paper are (1) to obtain estimates on the effect of uncertainties of the hazard model, and (2) to evaluate the seismic hazard in Taiwan for structural analysis and design purposes. The seismic hazard in the Taiwan area is presented in terms of an iso-acceleration map. Such a map is developed for return periods of peak ground acceleration of 225 years and 475 years. The contour map of b-values and mean occurence rates for this region is also presented. Uncertainty analyses of model parameters in hazard analysis are concentrated on the analysis of dispersion of PGA values and the probabilistic modeling of stationary and nonstationary Poisson models of occurrences. Th e overall results are considered to be conservative since for most uncertainty analyses the more conservative values are used.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper, a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is presented for Peninsular India. The PSHA has been performed using three different recurrence models: a classical seismic zonation model, a fault model, and a grid model. The development of a grid model based on a non-parameterized recurrence model using an adaptation of the Kernel-based method that has not been applied to this region before. The results obtained from the three models have been combined in a logic tree structure in order to investigate the impact of different weights of the models. Three suitable attenuation relations have been considered in terms of spectral acceleration for the stable continental crust as well as for the active crust within the Gujarat region. While Peninsular India has experienced large earthquakes, e.g., Latur and Jabalpur, it represents in general a stable continental region with little earthquake activity, as also confirmed in our hazard results. On the other hand, our study demonstrates that both the Gujarat and the Koyna regions are exposed to a high seismic hazard. The peak ground acceleration for 10 % exceedance in 50 years observed in Koyna is 0.4 g and in the Kutch region of Gujarat up to 0.3 g. With respect to spectral acceleration at 1 Hz, estimated ground motion amplitudes are higher in Gujarat than in the Koyna region due to the higher frequency of occurrence of larger earthquakes. We discuss the higher PGA levels for Koyna compared Gujarat and do not accept them uncritically.  相似文献   

14.
根据埃及Gasco天然气公司工程场地的现场调查资料、地震活动性和地震灾害评估结果,对该场地进行了评估.通过浅源地震波折射勘探,对8个地震剖面上的土壤和岩石的弹性动态常数进行了分析.场地地面模型包括两层,分析表明它们具有从中值到高值的弹性动态常数,说明场地有良好的土壤条件和基岩岩性.同时,我们搜集和分析了研究区周围150 km半径范围内的历史和仪器记录地震,从构造环境、地震活动性、地质构造和主要地震的断层面解等方面进行了研究,认为场地受4个震源区的影响:苏伊士中部海湾、开罗-苏伊士地区、开罗西南和Beni-Suef地区.我们采用地震活动性统计方法并结合专家判定,确定了这些震源区内最大地震的矩震级(MW).另外,依据场地峰值加速度(PGA)和反应谱,用随机方法对场地进行了地震灾害评估.4个震源区中,Beni-Suef地区距离工程场地最近,其PGA最大值为9.34cm/s2,但这个值很小,表明地震不会对工程场地产生破坏性影响.最后,我们还模拟了阻尼为1%、3%和5%时的伪加速度场地反应谱.  相似文献   

15.
Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respec-tively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.  相似文献   

16.
巴基斯坦沿海地区地震危险性分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
通过确定性和概率性方法，对发展迅速的巴基斯坦沿海地区进行了地震危险性评估．根据该地区的地震构造和地质条件，确定了5个地震区域的11个断层作为该地区的潜在震源，计算了每个潜在震源的最大可能震级．根据与之相关震源的最大可信震级，计算了7个沿海城市的峰值加速度（PGA）．瓜达尔（Gwadar）和奥尔马腊（Ormara）的峰值加速度分别为0.21和0.25 g，处于地震危险性水平较高的地区；杜尔伯德（Turbat）和卡拉奇（Karachi）位于地震危险性水平较低的地区，峰值加速度小于0.1 g．同时，分别绘制了50年和100年超越概率为10％的PGA区划图，区划图的分区间隔为0.05 g．   相似文献   

17.
A performance-based adaptive methodology for the seismic assessment of highway bridges is proposed. The proposed methodology is based on an Inverse (I), Adaptive (A) application of the Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM), with the capacity curve of the bridge derived through a Displacement-based Adaptive Pushover (DAP) analysis. For this reason, the acronym IACSM is used to identify the proposed methodology. A number of Performance Levels (PLs), for which the seismic vulnerability and seismic risk of the bridge shall be evaluated, are identified. Each PL is associated to a number of Damage States (DSs) of the critical members of the bridge (piers, abutments, joints and bearing devices). The IACSM provides the earthquake intensity level (PGA) corresponding to the attainment of the selected DSs, using over-damped elastic response spectra as demand curves. The seismic vulnerability of the bridge is described by means of fragility curves, derived based on the PGA values associated to each DS. The seismic risk of the bridge is evaluated as convolution integral of the product between the fragility curves and the seismic hazard curve of the bridge site. In this paper, the key aspects and basic assumptions of the proposed methodology are presented first. The IACSM is then applied to nine existing simply supported deck bridges, characterized by different types of piers and bearing devices. Finally, the IACSM predictions are compared with the results of nonlinear response time-history analysis, carried out using a set of seven ground motions scaled to the expected PGA values.  相似文献   

18.
Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.  相似文献   

19.
Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different models with respect to background seismic activity and earthquake occurrence in time is investigated. For the contribution of background seismic activity to seismic hazard, background area source with uniform seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity models are taken into consideration. For the contribution of faults, through characteristic earthquakes, both the memoryless Poisson and the time dependent renewal models are utilized. A case study, involving the assessment of seismic hazard for the Bursa province in Turkey, is conducted in order to examine quantitatively the influence of these models on seismic hazard results. The spatial variation of the difference in Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values obtained from these different models is presented in the form of difference maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Best estimate seismic hazard maps for PGA and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are obtained by using the logic tree method.  相似文献   

20.
台湾集集地震近场地震动的上盘效应   总被引：32，自引：12，他引：32       下载免费PDF全文
俞言祥  高孟潭 《地震学报》2001,24(6):615-621
1999年9月21日（当地时间）台湾集集7.6级地震是一个逆断层型地震．用回归分析法对台湾集集地震的加速度峰值数据进行分析，得出了这次地震的水平与垂直向的加速度峰值衰减关系．从残差分布上看，位于断层上盘和下盘上的加速度峰值与从衰减关系所得到的结果相比存在不同的系统偏差，断层上盘地表的加速度峰值较高，而下盘地表的加速度峰值较低．从这次地震的加速度峰值分布等值线图上也可以看出，加速度峰值的分布相对于断层呈现明显的不对称性，上盘衰减较慢而下盘衰减较快．在近断层强地面运动研究、地震危险性分析、设定地震研究与震害预测等工作中，应考虑可能地震的震源机制特点，以便使所用的衰减模型更能反映不同地震环境地区的地震动分布特征．   相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号