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1.
Rapidly expanding urban areas in Central Asia are increasingly vulnerable to seismic risk; but at present, no earthquake early warning (EEW) systems exist in the region despite their successful implementation in other earthquake-prone areas. Such systems aim to provide short (seconds to tens of seconds) warnings of impending disaster, enabling the first risk mitigation and damage control steps to be taken. This study presents the feasibility of such a system for Almaty, Kazakhstan. Genetic algorithms are used to design efficient EEW networks, computing optimal station locations and trigger thresholds in recorded ground acceleration. Factors like the possibility of station failure, elevation and access difficulty to a potential site, and the potential usefulness of existing stations in the region are considered. We present a large set of possible efficient networks, to which further selection criteria can be applied by both the installation teams and the end user, such as authorities in Almaty. 相似文献
2.
K. Pitilakis S. Karapetrou D. Bindi M. Manakou B. Petrovic Z. Roumelioti T. Boxberger S. Parolai 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(9):2543-2563
This study aims at presenting the analyses of monitoring data that have been used in the context of structural monitoring and Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) for a hospital building in Thessaloniki. Permanent and temporary instrumentation arrays, implemented under the responsibility of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (SDGEE-AUTH) in close cooperation with German Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) are presented. The ambient noise data recorded at the temporarily installed networks are used for the dynamic characterization of the building based on both vibrational and waveform approaches. Moreover, long-term ambient noise recordings from the permanent array installed within the hospital are used for the investigation of the daily and seasonal wandering of the building resonance frequencies related to environmental effects. The modal identification results are used in a comprehensive framework for the computation of the up-to-date fragility curves representing the actual structural state considering aging effects of the construction materials, possible pre-existing damages and changes in the geometry and mass distribution. The building-specific fragility functions are integrated into two independent EEW systems and rapid damage assessment approaches, namely the PRESTo software and an onsite EEW algorithm on the instruments of the permanent array, to provide the expected level of damage after strong ground shaking at the monitored building. The implemented monitoring networks and the developed operational tools can be used in the context of seismic risk mitigation and preparedness for structural safety assessment under earthquake loading. 相似文献
3.
地震预警震级计算方法研究综述 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
地震预警系统是减轻地震灾害的有效手段之一,世界上多个国家和地区都已经建立了地震预警系统,并在实际应用中取得了显著的减灾实效.由于地震预警系统应用中的高度时效性要求,预警震级计算是整个地震预警系统中最重要也是最困难的一部分.本文回顾总结了地震预警研究中采用的一些震级计算方法,并将其归纳为三大类算法:与初始周期相关的算法、与初始幅值相关的算法和与初始强度相关的算法.对每种算法都做了详尽介绍和仔细分析,同时列举出与该算法相关的研究成果.通过对这些算法的分析总结并结合我国地震观测台网的实际情况,作者推荐τc、Pd两种方法作为我国地震预警系统建设中优先采用的两种预警震级算法. 相似文献
4.
E. Sokos G.-A. Tselentis P. Paraskevopoulos A. Serpetsidaki A. Stathopoulos-Vlamis A. Panagis 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(9):2531-2542
Patras is the third largest city in Greece and an ideal candidate for earthquake early warning (EEW) applications due to its high seismic hazard, its existing research infrastructure and the presence of critical structures such as the Rion-Antirion bridge. Patras is located a few hundred kilometres from the Hellenic Arc, where very strong and potentially damaging earthquakes occur. This distance is large enough to allow a few tens of seconds of warning time prior to significant shaking, provided earthquakes are timely detected by a dense seismic network. Within the framework of the EC-funded project REAKT, the Virtual Seismologist (VS) EEW software was installed at Patras Seismological Laboratory. Its initial performance evaluation is presented here. In general VS provides magnitudes similar to the official, manually revised ones. Given the current station density and network telemetry, the average time that VS needs to deliver the first magnitude estimate is rather large, of the order of tens of seconds and not yet satisfactory for routine operational use of EEW. Even so, the system is able to provide up to 10 s of warning time prior to S-wave arrivals for events occurring on the Hellenic Arc. Our results indicate that the seismic networks in Greece need enhancements for regional EEW, either by adding stations or by upgrading the hardware to reduce delays. The application of an EEW system in the area is promising and, once operational, capable of mitigating earthquake risk. 相似文献
5.
由于常用的均方根值法和噪声功率谱法不能消除不同传感器记录的噪声干扰,为提高噪声水平计算的准确度,本文选用最大概率峰值位移作为背景噪声评估指标。基于可靠的噪声数据,借鉴震级-最大距离监测能力法并考虑预警时效,提出了地震预警最小震级评估方法,系统评估福建三类传感器网及其融合网的地震预警最小震级和预警首报时间。结果表明：测震强震融合网的地震预警最小震级高于单测震网,但明显低于强震网;强震烈度计融合网与单烈度计网的结果相近;三网融合后95%区域的地震预警最小震级约为ML3.2。由于烈度计网比测震和强震网密集,其预警首报时间最短;三网融合相对于单测震网或单强震网,其震后地震预警首报时间得到了明显缩短,预计95%区域的首报时间为4—6 s。本文研究为福建省的台网布局的优化和重点区域监测能力的提升提供了参考依据。 相似文献
6.
Increasing vulnerability of metropolitan areas to earthquake and the very low probability level at which short term earthquake forecasting is possible make earthquake early warning methods (EEW) the main viable alternative for effective risk reduction in cities. Preventive actions, such as retrofitting and building and the diffusion of construction codes, are of course essential. They are not sufficient. A substantial proportion of the population in areas of higher earthquake hazard still reside in buildings that do not meet modern earthquake resistant standards, and cannot currently be strengthened in an economically viable manner. As demonstrated in Japan EEW has the potential of significantly contributing to reduce individual vulnerability of urban population to earthquakes. Future research on EEW should be focused on its implementation to protect lifelines, infrastructures and strategic buildings, and it should include training of administrators and people who can fully exploit the technological advantages offered by EEW systems. In particular it should foresee extensive cost-benefit analysis for each potential application, the identification and solution of legal problems (such as liability in the event of false or missed alarms), education and training, both for mitigation and response, as well as detection and processing within 1 s of the first seismic wave arrivals. Further objectives include the development of people-centred EEW, specialized IT and decision making support systems, integration of sensors, communications and decision making systems, integration into programs of eco-sustainable development, and integration with other EW systems (all hazard systems). 相似文献
7.
Significant investments are undergoing internationally to develop earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. So far, reasonably, the most of the research in this field was lead by seismologists as the issues to determine essential feasibility of EEW were mainly related to the earthquake source. Many of them have been brilliantly solved, and the principles of this discipline are collected in the so-called real-time seismology. On the other hand, operating EEW systems rely on general-purpose intensity measures as proxies for the impending ground motion potential and are suitable for population alert. In fact, to date, comparatively little attention was given to EEW by earthquake engineering, and design approaches for structure-specific EEW are mostly lacking. Applications to site-specific systems have not been extensively investigated and EEW convenience is not yet proven except a few pioneering cases, although the topic is certainly worthwhile. For example, in structure-specific EEW the determination of appropriate alarm thresholds is important when the false alarm may induce significant losses; similarly, economic appeal with respect to other risk mitigation strategies as seismic upgrade should be assessed. In the paper the least issues to be faced in the design of engineering applications of EEW are reviewed and some work done in this direction is discussed. The review presented intends to summarize the work of the author and co-workers in this field illustrating a possible performance-based approach for the design of structure-specific applications of EEW. 相似文献
8.
9.
Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT. 相似文献
10.
A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Nai-Chi Hsiao Yih-Min Wu Li Zhao Da-Yi Chen Wei-Ting Huang Kuan-Hung Kuo Tzay-Chyn Shin Peih-Lin Leu 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2011
A new prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is being developed and tested using a real-time seismographic network currently in operation in Taiwan. This system is based on the Earthworm environment which carries out integrated analysis of real-time broadband, strong-motion and short-period signals. The peak amplitude of displacement in the three seconds after the P arrival, dubbed Pd, is used for the magnitude determination. Incoming signals are processed in real time. When a large earthquake occurs, P-wave arrival times and Pd will be estimated for location and magnitude determinations for EEW purpose. In a test of 54 felt earthquakes, this system can report earthquake information in 18.8±4.1 s after the earthquake occurrence with an average difference in epicenter locations of 6.3±5.7 km, and an average difference in depths of 7.9±6.6 km from catalogues. The magnitudes approach a 1:1 relationship to the reported magnitudes with a standard deviation of 0.51. Therefore, this system can provide early warning before the arrival of S-wave for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicenter. This new system is still under development and being improved, with the hope of replacing the current operational EEW system in the future. 相似文献
11.
It is clear that the basic countermeasure against earthquake strong motion is to reinforce buildings and other structures. Realtime earthquake disaster prevention is a countermeasure during the earthquake itself and is different from realtime seismology. An EEW, earthquake early warning system, is required to trigger realtime earthquake disaster prevention. It is important to avoid too much trust in EEW for the disaster prevention. This paper describes the concept of an EEW and gives a brief history, which eventually led to the development of the UrEDAS, the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system, the first operational P-wave early warning system. A real-world example of disaster prevention by this system is described. Finally, the role of national or public organizations in earthquake disaster prevention will be discussed, with special emphasis on the situation in Japan. 相似文献
12.
Elisa Zuccolo Tony Gibbs Carlo G. Lai Joan L. Latchman Walter Salazar Luigi Di Sarno Anthony Farrell Lloyd Lynch Addison Workman 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(9):2579-2605
A feasibility study of an earthquake early warning (EEW) system was conducted for the Eastern Caribbean region using scenario earthquakes, corresponding to the maximum credible earthquakes and to the earthquakes associated with a return period of 475 years. Broadband synthetic seismograms were produced at selected critical facilities, where there is potential interest in the installation of an EEW system. The expected damage was derived from the synthetic seismograms and compared with the lead-time determined for both a regional and on-site EEW configuration. Next, the Virtual Seismologist EEW algorithm, as included in SeisComP3, was tested. Additional broadband synthetic seismograms were produced for the stations in the Eastern Caribbean seismic networks in order to simulate the real time behaviour of the seismic networks during the occurrence of the synthetic earthquakes and to assess the predictive capacity of the selected ground motion prediction equation. Expected peak ground parameters and lead-times at the critical facilities constitute the major outcome of the study. 相似文献
13.
地震预警是地震减灾工作的重要途径,而震级预估是整个地震紧急预警系统中重要且较为困难的一个环节.目前,世界上多个国家和地区都已建立了各自的地震预警系统,并且形成了特征频率(τ_p和τ_c等)相关和特征振幅(Pd等)相关的两类震级紧急预警的方法,但各有局限性.本文在已有的方法和理论基础上,运用机器学习算法,将日本KIK和KNET台网从2015年至2017年所记录到的843条地震目录,55426条记录作为全数据集,设计、训练出一套用于常见震级范围的机器学习震级预估模型.与已有方法的预估结果相比,机器学习方法不仅使预估的整体误差和方差下降,同时多台联合评估单一地震事件的截面方差也更低.本研究的结果显示了机器学习算法在震级紧急预估问题上具有较广阔的应用前景,同时也为较为复杂的深度学习类算法框架下端到端模型提供了实践基础和研究可能. 相似文献
14.
The Japan Meteorological Agency commenced an Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) provision service in August 2006 to advanced users and in October 2007 to the Japanese public. By the end of 2009, EEWs had been issued to advanced users for more than 2100 earthquakes and to the public for 11 earthquakes. Nearly 80% of seismic intensity predictions were accurate within ±1 intensity unit on JMA’s Seismic Intensity Scale. The Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake in 2008 demonstrated the efficiency of EEWs in many places. However, there were other cases where the warnings were not issued in time for strong tremors. Further technical development is needed for both earthquake source parameter estimation and seismic intensity prediction. Public education in regard to the technical limitations and accuracy of EEWs as well as actions to take in response to such warnings are also indispensable. 相似文献
15.
地震发生后震级的快速准确估算是确保地震预警减灾效果的最重要部分,而基于经验参数的传统方法在准确性和时效性方面各自存在局限性。通过建立多全连接层卷积神经网络模型,选用日本KiK-net和K-NET台网1997年至2019年记录到的3 065次地震的16万4 547条初至波在3—9 s不同时段的频域数据、对应地震事件的震源信息（震中距和震源深度）以及场地信息（vS30）作为全数据集,对提出的模型进行训练并对估算效果予以评估。结果显示:当初至波截取时段为3 s时,模型震级预测的整体准确率为89.92%,并且随着初至波长度的增大,估算震级的准确率持续提高;当截取时段为9 s时,整体准确率达到96.08%。与传统Pd方法的预估结果相比,结果表明:基于本文提出的多全连接层卷积神经网络模型估算的震级精度有所改善,具有绝对误差标准差和均值更小、时效强等特性,实现了基于单台站记录的端到端震级持续快速估算,能更好地增强地震预警的减灾效果。 相似文献
16.
Earthquake early warning (EEW) is discriminated from earthquake prediction by using initial seismic waves to predict the severity of ground motion and issue the warning information to potential affected area. The warning information is useful to mitigate the disaster and decrease the losses of life and economy. We reviewed the development history of EEW worldwide and summarized the methodologies using in different systems. Some new sensors came and are coming into EEW giving more developing potential to future implementation. The success of earthquake disaster mitigation relies on the cooperation of the whole society. 相似文献
17.
Earthquake early warning: Concepts,methods and physical grounds 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Claudio Satriano Yih-Min Wu Aldo Zollo Hiroo Kanamori 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2011
Modern technology allows real-time seismic monitoring facilities to evolve into earthquake early warning (EEW) systems, capable of reducing deaths, injuries, and economic losses, as well as of speeding up rescue response and damage recovery. The objective of an EEW system is to estimate in a fast and reliable way the earthquake’s damage potential, before the strong shaking hits a given target. 相似文献
18.
随着国家地震烈度速报与预警工程的开展,“地震预警”越来越进入公众的视线,国内外关于“什么是地震预警”的问题越来越多,对地震预警技术的解释也多种多样。本文论述了我国地震预警的进展,地震预警的实质和局限性。地震预警实质是地震观测进入密集观测新阶段,地震速报从分钟级发展到秒级超快地震速报,也就是地震警报。由于在地震预警实际应用中受预警盲区和地震强度估算不准确的局限,地震科学家对地震预警技术应用效能的认识也在不断加深和变化,逐步认识了发挥地震预警的警报作用的重要性。同时,地震预警是复杂的社会工程,引导公众认识地震预警的局限性,才能有效发挥减灾效能。 相似文献
19.
地震预警定位方法研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
实时地震定位是地震预警系统中必须解决的关键问题之一.文中在借鉴已有实时地震定位方法的基础上并结合我国台网的实际情况,推导得到一套利用前三/四台P波、S波到时信息进行实时定位的算法.作者选取2000年至2008年问福建省地震监测台网记录到的68个3.0级以上地震对该算法进行验证.研究结果表明,采用文中方法的定位结果具有一... 相似文献
20.
地震预警技术是减轻地震灾害损失的有效手段之一．地震预警系统中,地震震级计算是最重要也是最困难的部分之一．利用日本KiK-net台网和四川汶川余震共142次地震事件的记录,分别采用tau;c和Pd方法统计得到了地震预警震级的计算公式,震级计算的方差分别为0.62和0.56个震级单位．为消除震级计算过程中出现的震级饱和现象,作者拓展了Pd方法,提出了一套对位移幅值连续追踪测定的算法．当时间窗长度为10 s时,采用该方法的震级计算方差仅为0.37个震级单位,充分满足地震预警系统的需求．同时,该方法也实现了信息的连续过渡,提高了对现有信息的利用率．最后,还对位移幅值Pd用于地震动峰值PGV的估计以及不同特征参数间的相容性等内容进行了讨论． 相似文献