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1.
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2.
This study investigates past sea level reconstruction (over 1950–2003) based on tide gauge records and EOF spatial patterns from different 2-D fields. In a first step, we test the influence on the reconstructed signal of the 2-D fields temporal coverage. For that purpose we use global grids of thermosteric sea level data, available over 1950–2003. Different time spans (in the range 10–50 yr) for the EOF spatial patterns, and different geographical distributions for the 1-D thermosteric sea level time series (interpolated at specific locations from the 2-D grids), are successively used to reconstruct the 54-year long thermosteric sea level signal. In each case we compare the reconstructed trend map with the reference. The simulation indicates that the longer the time span covered by the spatial EOFs, the closer to the reference the reconstructed thermosteric sea level trends. In a second step, we apply the method to reconstructing 2-D sea level data over 1950–2003, combining sparse tide gauge records available since 1950, with EOF spatial patterns from different sources: (1) thermosteric sea level grids over 1955–2003, (2) sea level grids from Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry over 1993–2003, and (3) dynamic height grids from the SODA reanalysis over 1958–2001. The reconstructed global mean sea level trend based on thermosteric EOFs (case 1) is significantly lower than the observed trend, while the interannual/decadal sea level fluctuations are well reproduced. Case 2 (Topex/Poseidon EOFs over 1993–2003) leads to a global mean sea level trend over the 54-year time interval very close to the observed trend. But the spatial trends of the reconstruction over 1950–2003 are significantly different from those obtained with thermosteric EOFs. Case 3 (SODA EOFs over 1958–2001) provides a reconstruction trend map over 1950–2003 that differs significantly from the previous two cases. We discuss possible causes for such differences. For the three cases, on the other hand, reconstructed spatial trends over 1993–2003 agree well with the regional sea level trends observed by Topex/Poseidon.  相似文献   

3.
This paper presents the development of a system dynamic model to simulate and analyze desertification.The human–environment coupled model integrates socio-economic drivers with bio-physical drivers of biomass production, land degradation and desertification. It is based on the UN and GEF definitions of desertification. It illustrates the concept of desertification through differential equation and simulation output graphics. It is supplemented with a causal loop diagram demonstrating the existing feed-back mechanisms.The model relates population pressure and dynamics over time to the growth and availability of biomass resources. The human population stock is described as a function of growth rate, death rate and resources dependent in and out migration of people. The relative growth rate of the stock of resources is modeled as a function of climate and exploitation pressure affecting soil erosion and water availability.The model is applied for the Sahelian desertification syndrome using input data to illustrate and simulate a 150 years period (1900–2050) in Kordofan, Sudan. The model indicates that it is difficult to generate irreversible desertification.  相似文献   

4.
Using a recently developed global vegetation distribution, topography, and shorelines for the Early Eocene in conjunction with the Genesis version 2.0 climate model, we investigate the influences that these new boundary conditions have on global climate. Global mean climate changes little in response to the subtle changes we made; differences in mean annual and seasonal surface temperatures over northern and southern hemispheric land, respectively, are on the order of 0.5°C. In contrast, and perhaps more importantly, continental scale climate exhibits significant responses. Increased peak elevations and topographic detail result in larger amplitude planetary 4 mm/day and decreases by 7–9 mm/day in the proto Himalayan region. Surface temperatures change by up to 18°C as a direct result of elevation modifications. Increased leaf area index (LAI), as a result of altered vegetation distributions, reduces temperatures by up to 6°C. Decreasing the size of the Mississippi embayment decreases inland precipitation by 1–2 mm/day. These climate responses to increased accuracy in boundary conditions indicate that “improved” boundary conditions may play an important role in producing modeled paleoclimates that approach the proxy data more closely.  相似文献   

5.
The question of whether or not the Earth's climate is influenced by solar activity has received considerable attention since the mid-nineteenth century. Most investigations have adopted the sunspot number as the parameter of solar activity. Recently, however, it has been shown by Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) that the mean northern hemisphere temperature, from 1861–1990, follows a strikingly similar trend to thelength of the sunspot cycle, suggesting that the recent global warming could, at least in part, arise from changes in solar activity. In view of the importance of this result, we have examined a set of continuous meteorological records, maintained at Armagh Observatory since 1844, to assess, first, whether data from a single site can give meaningful information on global trends, and second, whether the data from this particular site for the period 1844–1866 can be used to extend the baseline of the comparison with solar activity. We find that both are indeed the case and that there is a strong correlation between the solar cycle length and the mean temperature at Armagh over the past 149 years.  相似文献   

6.
A previous study of Fox [Fox, A.N. 1993. Snowline altitude and climate at present and during the Last Pleistocene Glacial Maximum in the Central Andes (5°–28°S). Ph.D. Thesis. Cornell University.] showed that for a fixed 0 °C isotherm altitude, the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers from 5 to 20°S can be expressed based on a log–normal expression of local mid-annual rainfall amount (P). In order to extrapolate the function to the whole Andes (10°N to 55°S) a local 0 °C isotherm altitude is introduced. Two applications of this generalised function are presented. One concerns the space evolution of mean inter-annual ELA for three decades (1961–1990) over the whole South American continent. A high-resolution data set (grid data: 10′ for latitude/longitude) of mean monthly air surface temperature and precipitation is used. Mean annual values over the 1961–1990 period were calculated. On each grid element, the mean annual 0 °C isotherm altitude is determined from an altitudinal temperature gradient and mean annual temperature (T) at ground level. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is then associated with the annual precipitation amount to compute the ELA. Using computed ELA and the digital terrain elevation model GTOPO30, we determine the extent of the glacierised area in Andean regions under modern climatic conditions. The other application concerns the ELA time evolution on Zongo Glacier (Bolivia), where inter-annual ELA variations are computed from 1995 to 1999. For both applications, the computed values of ELA are in good agreement with those derived from glacier mass balance measurements.  相似文献   

7.
In this lecture, I will briefly address several phenomena expected when magnetic fields are present in the innermost regions of circumstellar accretion discs: (i) the magneto-rotational instability and related “dead zones”; (ii) the formation of magnetically-driven jets and the observational constraints derived from Classical T Tauri stars; (iii) the magnetic star–disc interactions and their expected role in the stellar spin down.It should be noted that the magnetic fields invoked here are organized large scale magnetic fields, not turbulent small scale ones. I will therefore first argue why one can safely expect these fields to be present in circumstellar accretion discs. Objects devoid of such large scale fields would not be able to drive jets. A global picture is thus gradually emerging where the magnetic flux is an important control parameter of the star formation process as a whole. High angular resolution technics, by probing the innermost circumstellar disc regions should provide valuable constraints.  相似文献   

8.
The data of the Coronas F satellite and other spacecraft were used to show that, in October–November 2003, global variations in brightness occurred in all spectral regions of the solar electromagnetic radiation. The variations were asymmetric in heliolongitude. This phenomenon was accompanied by an extremely strong energy release in the form of coronal-mass ejections and solar flares. The most powerful of them took place on the solar side that was characterized by an enhanced brightness even before these events. As a result, superimposed corotating and sporadic disturbances, which are partly correlated, can be traced in parameters of the solar atmospheric radiation, flows of the solar-wind plasma, and heliospheric magnetic field.__________Translated from Astronomicheskii Vestnik, Vol. 39, No. 3, 2005, pp. 195–201.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Veselovsky, Dmitriev, Zhitnik, Zhukov, Zel’dovich, Kuzin, Naumkin, Persiantsev, Ryazanov, Shugai, Yakovchuk, Bogachev, Shestov.  相似文献   

9.
The paper is concerned with identifying changes in the time series of water and sediment discharge of the Zhujiang (Pearl River), China. The gradual trend test (Mann–Kendall test), and abrupt change test (Pettitt test), have been employed on annual water discharge and sediment load series (from the 1950s–2004) at nine stations in the main channels and main tributaries of the Zhujiang. Both the Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests indicate that water discharge at all stations in the Zhujiang Basin showed no significant trend or abrupt shift. Annual water discharges are mainly influenced by precipitation variability, while the construction of reservoirs/dams in the Zhujiang Basin had little influence on water discharge. Sediment load, however, showed significant decreasing trends at some stations in the main channel of the Xijiang and Dongjiang. More stations have seen significantly decreasing trends since the 1990s. The decreasing sediment load in the Zhujiang reflects the impacts of reservoir construction in the basin. In contrast, the Liujiang, the second largest tributary of the Xijiang, has experienced a significant upward shift of sediment load around 1991 likely caused by exacerbated rock desertification in the karst regions. The annual sediment load from the Zhujiang (excluding the delta region) to the estuary has declined from 80.4 × 106 t averaged for the period 1957–1995 to 54.0 × 106 t for the period 1996–2004. More specifically, the sediment load declined steadily since the early 1990s so that in 2004 it was about one-third of the mean level of pre-90s. Water discharge and sediment load of the Zhujiang would be more affected by human activities in the future with the further reservoir developments, especially the completion of the Datengxia hydroelectric project, and an intensification of the afforestation policy in the drainage basin.  相似文献   

10.
The solar corona – one of the most spectacular celestial shows and yet one of the most challenging puzzles – exhibits a spectrum of structures related to both the quiet Sun and active regions. In spite of dramatic differences in appearance and physical processes, all these structures share a common origin: they are all related to the solar magnetic field. The origin of the field is beneath the turbulent convection zone, where the magnetic field is not a master but a slave, and one can wonder how much the coronal magnetic field “remembers” its dynamo origin. Surprisingly, it does. We will describe several observational phenolmena that indicate a close relationship between coronal and sub-photospheric processes.  相似文献   

11.
We present the results of observation of the Geminga pulsar carried out in the TeV energy band during the 6 year period spanning 2000–2006 using the Pachmarhi Array of Cherenkov Telescopes (PACT). A long stretch of data, new computer codes and the “Tempo” package have been used in the present analysis. We have searched for evidence of pulsed emission of γ-rays from the Geminga pulsar using the post-glitch pulsar elements obtained by Jackson and Halpern from X-ray/γ-ray satellite data. We do not see any significant evidence for pulsed emission from the Geminga pulsar at a threshold energy of 825 GeV. In this paper we present our results on the light curve in the TeV energy band, set an upper limit on the time averaged flux of γ-rays, and compare our results with other ground based observations.  相似文献   

12.
The results of several seasonal integrations with an atmospheric global circulation model with prescribed “perfect” sea surface temperatures are presented. These experiments illustrate the results of seasonal simulations for the years 1987 and 1988. These were a dry and a wet monsson year, respectively, when compared to the average. The integrations cover the period from June 1 through August 31 for both years and were carried out at two horizontal resolutions, T42 and T106, of a global model containing two different parameterizations of surface hydrology. The seasonal differences of the motion fields, divergent circulations and rainfall distributions for these respective experiments are compared with the corresponding observed fields.The sensitivity of seasonal simulations to the initial state is explored with integrations starting on two successive dates. In these experiments we diagnose differences of the simulated time mean states from residue free budgets of the complete vorticity equation.  相似文献   

13.
South China Sea (SCS) is a major moisture source region, providing summer monsoon rainfall throughout Mainland China, which accounts for more than 80% total precipitation in the region. We report seasonal to monthly resolution Sr/Ca and δ18O data for five Holocene and one modern Porites corals, each covering a growth history of 9–13 years. The results reveal a general decreasing trend in sea surface temperature (SST) in the SCS from 6800 to 1500 years ago, despite shorter climatic cycles. Compared with the mean Sr/Ca–SST in the 1990s (24.8 °C), 10-year mean Sr/Ca–SSTs were 0.9–0.5 °C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 thousand years before present (ky BP), dropped to the present level by 2.5 ky BP, and reached a low of 22.6 °C (2.2 °C lower) by 1.5 ky BP. The summer Sr/Ca–SST maxima, which are more reliable due to faster summer-time growth rates and higher sampling resolution, follow the same trend, i.e. being 1–2 °C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 ky BP, dropping to the present level by 2.5 ky BP, and reaching a low of 28.7 °C (0.7 °C lower) by 1.5 ky BP. Such a decline in SST is accompanied by a similar decrease in the amount of monsoon moisture transported out of South China Sea, resulting in a general decrease in the seawater δ18O values, reflected by offsets of mean δ18O relative to that in the 1990s. This observation is consistent with general weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon since early Holocene, in response to a continuous decline in solar radiation, which was also found in pollen, lake-level and loess/paleosol records throughout Mainland China. The climatic conditions 2.5 and 1.5 ky ago were also recorded in Chinese history. In contrast with the general cooling trend of the monsoon climate in East Asia, SST increased dramatically in recent time, with that in the 1990s being 2.2 °C warmer than that 1.5 ky ago. This clearly indicates that the increase in the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases played a dominant role in recent global warming, which reversed the natural climatic trend in East Asian monsoon regime.  相似文献   

14.
Today, most land surface process models have prescribed seasonal change of vegetation with regard to the exchange processes between land and the atmosphere. However, in order to consider the real interaction between vegetation and atmosphere and represent it best in a climate model, the vegetation growth process should be included. In other words, “life” should be brought into climate models. In this study, we have coupled the physical and biological components of AVIM (Atmosphere–Vegetation Interaction Model), a land surface model including plant ecophysiological processes, into the IAP/LASG L9 R15 GOALS GCM. To exhibit terrestrial vegetation information, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere, which is 7.5° longitude and 4.5° latitude. The simulated monthly mean surface air temperature and precipitation is close to the observations. The monthly mean Leaf Area Index (LAI) is consistent with the observed data. The global annual mean net primary production (NPP) simulation is also reasonable. The coupled model is stable, providing a good platform for research on two-way interaction between land and atmosphere, and the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle.  相似文献   

15.
Reconstruction of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1945–2000   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The distribution of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea is recovered for the period 1945–2000 by using a reduced space optimal interpolation analysis. The method involves estimating empirical orthogonal functions from satellite altimeter data spanning the period 1993–2005 that are then combined with tide gauge data to recover sea level fields over the period 1945–2000. The reconstruction technique is discussed and its robustness is checked through different tests. For the altimetric period (1993–2000) the prediction skill is quantified over the whole domain by comparing the reconstructed fields with satellite altimeter observations. For past times the skill can only be tested locally, by validating the reconstruction against independent tide gauge records. The reconstructed distribution of sea level trends for the period 1945–2000 shows a positive peak in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.5 mm yr− 1) and a negative peak of − 0.5 mm yr− 1 in a small area to the south-east of Crete. Positive trends are found nearly everywhere, being larger in the western Mediterranean (between 0.5 and 1 mm yr− 1) than in the eastern Mediterranean (between 0 and 0.5 mm yr− 1). The estimated rate of mean sea level rise for the period 1945–2000 is 0.7 ± 0.2 mm yr− 1, i.e. about a half of the rate estimated for global mean sea level. These overall results do not appear to be very sensitive to the distribution of tide gauges. The poorest results are obtained in open-sea regions with intense mesoscale variability not correlated with any tide gauge station, such as the Algerian Basin.  相似文献   

16.
Using the All-Sky Monitor (ASM, 1.5–12–kev) data of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) from January 1996 to May 2005, we have made a detailed analysis of the correlation between photon-count rate and spectral hardness ratio HR2 (5–12 keV/3–5 keV) of the black-hole candidate X-ray binary Cyg X-1 in 3 energy bands, namely the A-band (1.5–3 keV), B-band (3–5 keV) and Cband (5–12 keV). By the study on the ASM data of 1-day time scale, we find: (1) When Cyg X-1 is in the soft state, the A-band photon-count rate and hardness ratio HR2 exhibit an anticorrelation, but in B-band and C-band there appears the positive correlation. When Cyg X-1 is in hard state, the photon-count rates in the A,B,C bands are all inversely correlated with the hardness ratio HR2; (2) No matter whether Cyg X-1 is in the soft state or the hard state, the hardness ratios HR2 and HR1 are always positively correlated. In addition, we have analyzed the “dwell by dwell” data of the ASM, and obtained the following interesting results: (1) In the period of MJD = 52600–52760 (while Cyg X-1 is in the hard state), the photon-count rates in the A-band and B-band are inversely correlated with HR2, but in the C-band there appears a relatively strong positive correlation; (2) During the hard state, a clear anticorrelation exists between the hardness ratios HR2 and HR1.  相似文献   

17.
Rotational Modulation of Microwave Solar Flux   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Time series data of 10.7 cm solar flux for one solar cycle (1985–1995 years) was processed through autocorrelation. Rotation modulation with varying persistence and period was quite evident. The persistence of modulation seems to have no relation with sunspot numbers. The persistence of modulation is more noticeable during 1985–1986, 1989–1990, and 1990–1991. In other years the modulation is seen, but its persistence is less. The sidereal rotation period varies from 24.07 days to 26.44 days with no systematic relation with sunspot numbers. The results indicate that the solar corona rotates slightly faster than photospheric features. The solar flux was split into two parts, i.e., background emission which remains unaffected by solar rotation and the localized emission which produces the observed rotational modulation. Both these parts show a direct relation with the sunspot numbers. The magnitude of localized emission almost diminishes during the period of low sunspot number, whereas background emission remains at a 33% level even when almost no sunspots may be present. The localized regions appear to shift on the solar surface in heliolongitudes.  相似文献   

18.
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19.
We have analyzed a Late Holocene record, almost 5000 years long, consisting of varved sediments deposited in the oxygen-minimum zone (OMZ) off Pakistan. We searched for cyclicity in the series of varve thickness (“varve” cycles), of unusually large excursions in varve thickness (“agitation” cycles), and of abundance of turbidites (“turbidite” cycles). We found the following high-frequency cycles (periods between 10 and 100 years) in one or several of the three types of series as follows: near 12.4, 14–15, 16.8, 18.6 (strong, agitation), 25–26 (strong, turbidite), 29–31 (strong, agitation), 39 (varve), 44 (strong, turbidite), 51–54 (strong, agitation), 56 (strong, varve), 64 (strong, turbidite), 69, 77 (strong, turbidite), 82 (very strong, agitation), and 95 years (strong, varve). Low-frequency cycles center around 99–115, 125 (very strong, varve), 164, 177, 202, 242–255 (strong, agitation and turbidite), 280 (strong, varve; doubled, turbidite), 340–370 and 460–490 years.Some cycles of varve thickness match the cyclicity of turbidite frequency (12.3, 14–15, 25–26, 245–255 years) but similarities between spectra are not striking. Taken as a whole, however, the sequence of cycles detected (by autocorrelation and standard Fourier analysis) seems to contain a large proportion of multiples of the basic tidal cycles 4.425 (lunar perigee cycle) and 9.3 years (lunar half-nodal cycle). This impression is supported by testing the three binned spectra for whole-number multiples and fractions as well as whole-number beat structure. We therefore propose that a large proportion of the cyclicity detected can be ascribed to tidal action. Our record also contains evidence for the presence of the 1470-year cycle previously reported from the glacial-age Greenland ice record. The main harmonics of this Greenland cycle can be tied to the pattern of periods seen in the varved sediments. We hypothesize that tidal action produces the cycle, and that the reason for its great length is the requirement that maximum tidal activity has to fall into a narrow seasonal window to be geologically effective.  相似文献   

20.
During the last half of the 20th century, cumulative annual discharge from 137 representative rivers (watershed areas ranging from 0.3 to 6300 × 103 km2) to the global ocean remained constant, although annual discharge from about one-third of these rivers changed by more than 30%. Discharge trends for many rivers reflected mostly changes in precipitation, primarily in response to short- and longer-term atmospheric–oceanic signals; with the notable exception of the Parana, Mississippi, Niger and Cunene rivers, few of these “normal" rivers experienced significant changes in either discharge or precipitation. Cumulative discharge from many mid-latitude rivers, in contrast, decreased by 60%, reflecting in large part impacts due to damming, irrigation and interbasin water transfers. A number of high-latitude and high-altitude rivers experienced increased discharge despite generally declining precipitation. Poorly constrained meteorological and hydrological data do not seem to explain fully these “excess” rivers; changed seasonality in discharge, decreased storage and/or decreased evapotranspiration also may play important roles.  相似文献   

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