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1.
Gnevyshev’s hypothesis of time space organization of sunspot activity over the solar surface like impulses is considered. Using numerical simulation it was shown that complex solar cycle shape can be explained by distribution of impulses in the northern and southern hemispheres. For long solar cycles, impulses at higher latitudes breaking Sp?rer’s law were found. Comparison of the time-latitude diagrams of solar magnetic fields and impulses has shown that each wave of new polarity to the poles is accompanied by impulse of sunspot activity. 相似文献
2.
O. G. Badalyan 《Astronomy Reports》2011,55(10):928-942
The temporal variations observed in the monthly mean latitudes of sunspot groups are studied over 1874–2010 using the data
of the Greenwich Catalog and its NOAA-USEF extension. The 11-year cycle is quite clear in the temporal variations of the monthly
mean latitudes of sunspot groups (i.e., of the centers of spotting) in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The North-South
(N-S) asymmetry in the latitudes of sunspot groups defined as the difference between the absolute values of sunspot latitudes
observed in the N and S hemispheres is compared with the N-S asymmetry in the total area of sunspot groups determined on the
scales of 11 years and longer. The N-S asymmetry is interpreted as an imbalance in the hemispheres’ powers (asymmetry in the
total area of sunspot groups) and as spatial imbalance (asymmetry in the latitudes of the centers of spotting). This imbalance
is most clearly seen at the solar minima, i.e., in the gradual transition from one cycle to the other, when the absolute values
of the asymmetries observed both in the total sunspot area and in the sunspot latitudes reach their maxima. The results obtained
here can be helpful for analyses of the solar dynamo. 相似文献
3.
使用多种数学统计方法分析了德令哈地区降水量变化与太阳活动之间的关系,发现近400年来降水量的长期变化与太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)和太阳黑子周期上升支长度之间存在着较好的反相关关系,当SCL偏短、太阳黑子周期上升支长度偏短时,太阳活动偏强,德令哈地区降水量偏多,反之偏少。功率谱和小波分析发现降水量序列中存在着与太阳活动的多种周期相一致的周期,对降水量与太阳活动在不同时间尺度上周期变化之间的关系进行了详细分析。交叉小波分析发现太阳活动主要在百年左右尺度的周期变化上影响德令哈地区降水量的长期变化,太阳活动周期变化的信号越强,对降水量变化的影响越大。文章最后对太阳活动影响德令哈地区降水量变化的可能机制进行了探讨。 相似文献
4.
The probability distributions and fractal dimension of sunspot cycles associated with ENSO phenomena
Asma Zaffar Shaheen Abbas Muhammad Rashid Kamal Ansari 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(3):63
Various methods have been used to secure the certainty of significant relations among the sunspot cycles and some of the terrestrial climate parameters such as temperature, rainfall, and ENSO. This study investigates the behavior of ENSO cycles and mean monthly sunspot cycles. Sunspot cycles range from 1755 to 2016 whereas, ENSO cycles range from 1866 to 2012. In this regard, the appropriateness of distributions is investigated with the help of Kolmogorov-Smirnov D, Anderson-Darling, and chi-square tests. It is found that most of the sunspot cycle follows generalized Pareto distribution whereas, generalized extreme value distribution was found appropriate for ENSO cycles. Probability distribution is used to analyze the behavior of each sunspot cycle and ENSO cycle separately. Probability distribution indicates the tail behavior of each cycle; tail explored correlation cycles. Furthermore, self-similar and self-affine fractal dimension methods are used to compute Hurst exponents to determine the persistency of the available data. Fractal dimension has an ability to study the complexity involved in sunspot and ENSO cycles. The fractal dimension and Hurst exponent describe persistency (smoothness) and complexity of data. Hurst exponent measures long-term behavior of time series, making it more helpful for forecasting. This is the measure of regularity or irregularity (chaos) of the time function in the form of their persistency or anti-persistency, respectively. Hurst exponents are computed using rescaled range analysis method and box counting methods. Both these methods are suitable for long-term forecasting. The results of this study confirm that during the period 1980–2000, ENSO cycles were very active. Simultaneously, ENSO was active for the periods 1982–1983, 1986–1987, 1991–1993, 1994–1995, and 1997–1998; these periods include two strongest periods of the century viz., 1982–1983 and 1997–1998. Sunspot cycles and ENSO cycles both were found to be persistent. Self-similar fractal dimensions exhibited a better persistency and a better correlation as compared to self-affine fractal dimension. This research is a part of a larger research project investigating the correlation of sunspot cycles and ENSO cycles, and the influence of ENSO cycles on variations of the local climatic parameters which in turn depends on solar activity changes. 相似文献
5.
The development of the solar magnetic activity in cycle 24 has been analyzed. It has been shown that the significant north–south asymmetry of magnetic activity was accompanied by the asynchronous reorganization of solar magnetic fields in the northern and southern hemispheres. The formation of unipolar magnetic regions after the decay of activity centers has been studied. The meridional transport of unipolar magnetic regions leading to changes in the zonal structure of the solar magnetic field has been shown. Long-lived centers of flare activity have been found to exist during the periods of magnetic field restructuring. The spatiotemporal analysis of the flare ensemble making it possible to diagnose non-stationary processes in the solar atmosphere has been shown. 相似文献
6.
A multifaceted statistical study of all available data on solar activity during the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is presented. The data include European telescope observations, Asian sunspot observations using the unaided eye, concentrations of cosmogeneous isotopes, and catalogues of polar aurorae. Joint analyses of data on the cosmogeneous isotopes 10Be and 14C are a promising source of information on solar activity in the past. The dates of relative sunspot maxima during the Maunder minimum are consistent with the idea that there were chaotic bursts of solar activity randomly distributed in time during this interval. The available evidence that the 11-year cyclicity was preserved in 1645–1715 are worthy of attention but require additional deep study and verification. No convincing evidence for a 22-year periodicity of the occurrence of sunspots during the Maunder minimum has been found. 相似文献
7.
Prediction of sunspot cycle is a vital activity in space mission planning and various engineering decision making. In the present study, the sunspot cycle prediction has been carried out by a hybrid model which employs multivariate regression technique and the binary mixture of Laplace distribution (BMLD) function. The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is being applied to the multivariate regression analysis to obtain a robust prediction of the sunspot cycle. Sunspot cycle 24 has been predicted using this technique. Multivariate regression model has been derived based on the available cycles 1 to 23. This model could predict cycle 24 as an average of previous cycles. Prediction from this model has been refined to capture the cycle characteristics such as bimodal peak at the high solar activity period by incorporating a predicted peak sunspot number from the BMLD model. This revised prediction has shown more accuracy in forecasting the major discrete features of sunspot cycle like maximum amplitude, the Gnevyshev gap, time duration from peak to peak amplitude, and the epoch of peak amplitude. This refined prediction shows that cycle 24 will be having a peak amplitude of 78 with an uncertainty of ±25. Moreover, the present forecast says that, cycle 24 will be having double peak with a strong second peak compared to the first peak. This hypothesis is found to be true with the realized data of cycle 24. Further, this techniques have been validated by predicting sunspot cycles 22 and 23. A preliminary level prediction of sunspot cycle 25 also been carried out using the technique presented here. Present study predicts that, cycle 25 also will be a modest cycle like the present cycle 24, and the peak amplitude may vary in a band of 75–95. 相似文献
8.
The north-south (N-S) asymmetry of the solar activity (A), which reflects differences in the behavior of the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun, is studied using data on the brightness of the coronal green line, the total number and area of sunspots, and the net magnetic flux. The spatial and temporal distributions and correlations between the A values represented by these indices are considered. The characteristic time variations in A are similar for all the indices, on both long and short time scales. Quasibiennial oscillations (QBOs) can be traced in the asymmetries of all four indices. A detailed study of the QBOs is carried out based on spectral-variation and wavelet analyses. Long-term increases and decreases occur synchronously in the asymmetries of various indices and are much more pronounced in A than in the indices themselves. A negative correlation between the power of the QBOs and the asymmetry of A can be traced; it is most clearly manifest as a substantial diminishing of the QBOs during the mid-1960s, which coincided with an especially strong increase in A. Our analysis shows that the N-S asymmetry is probably a fundamental property that controls the coupling and degree of coincidence between the magnetic-field-generation mechanisms operating in the northern and southern hemispheres. 相似文献
9.
Presented here are stable nitrogen isotope data from a rock hyrax (Procavia capensis) middens from northwestern Namibia that record a series of rapid aridification events beginning at ca. 3800 cal yr BP, and which mark a progressive decrease in regional humidity across the Holocene. Strong correlations exist between this record and other terrestrial and marine archives from southern Africa, indicating that the observed pattern of climate change is regionally coherent. Combined, these data indicate hemispheric synchrony in tropical African climate change during the Holocene, with similar trends characterising the termination of the ‘African Humid Period’ (AHP) in both the northern and southern tropics. These findings run counter to the widely accepted model of direct low-latitude insolation forcing, which requires an anti-phase relationship to exist between the hemispheres. The combined dataset highlights: 1) the importance of forcing mechanisms influencing the high northern latitudes in effecting low-latitude climate change in Africa, and 2) the potential importance of solar forcing and variations in the Earth's geomagnetic shield in determining both long-term and rapid centennial-scale climate changes, identifying a possible mechanism for the variations marking the AHP termination in both the southern and northern tropics. 相似文献
10.
L. V. Didkovskii 《Astronomy Reports》2000,44(12):841-847
Short-period (1–60 min) variations in the coordinates of the centers of gravity of isolated sunspots are analyzed. The sunspot coordinated were determined using two sets of observational data—magnetograms and intensities—obtained by SOHO (MDI) on December 6, 1998, from 01:00 to 21:57 UT with temporal resolution 60 s and spatial resolution 0.6″/pixel. A slow drift in the sunspot coordinates was removed using a low-frequency filter with a 61-min integration window. The guiding errors (RMS～0.014″) were determined by analyzing correlated motions in pairs of sunspots, and were removed from the time series before determining the sunspot proper motions. Based on the calculated power spectra for the sunspot proper motions, two period intervals containing appreciable power were identified. One coincides with the well-known 5-min acoustic solar oscillations. The concentration of power in this interval is greater for the coordinate variations derived the magnetograms than those derived from the intensities; the harmonic amplitude for some peaks reaches ～±30 km. The other spectral interval corresponds to periods exceeding 30 min. Overall, the rms short-period variations in the sunspot proper motions are 9.9±2.2 and 16.7±7.6 km (0.014″±0.003″ and 0.024″±0.010″) for the magnetogram and intensity data, respectively. 相似文献
11.
Observations of the solar butterfly diagram from sunspot records suggest persistent fluctuations in parity, away from the overall, approximately dipolar pattern. A simple mean-field dynamo model is used with a solar-like rotation law and perturbed α effect. The parity of the magnetic field relative to the rotational equator can demonstrate can be described as resonance behavior, while the magnetic energy behaves in a more or less expected way. Possible applications of this effect are discussed in the context of various deviations of the solar magnetic field from dipolar symmetry, as reported from analyses of archival sunspot data. The model produces fluctuations in field parity, and hence in the butterfly diagram, that are consistent with observed fluctuaions in solar behavior. 相似文献
12.
In recent years, measurements of total electron content (TEC) have gained importance with increasing demand for the GPS-based
navigation applications in trans-ionospheric communications. To study the variation in ionospheric TEC, we used the data obtained
from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC monitoring (GISTM) system which is in operation at SVNIT, Surat, India (21.16°N,
72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region. The data collected (for the low sunspot activity period
from August 2008–December 2009) were used to study the diurnal, monthly, seasonal semi-annual and annual variations of TEC
at Surat. It was observed that the diurnal variation at the region reaches its maximum value between 13:00 and 16:00 IST.
The monthly average diurnal variations showed that the TEC maximizes during the equinox months followed by the winter months,
and are lowest during the summer months. The ionospheric range delay to TEC for the primary GPS signal is 0.162 m per TECU.
The diurnal variation in TEC shows a minimum to maximum variation of about 5 to 50 TECU (in current low sunspot activity periods).
These TEC values correspond to range delay variations of about 1 to 9 m at Surat. These variations in the range delay will
certainly increase in high sunspot activity periods. Detected TEC variations are also closely related to space weather characterizing
quantities such as solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices. 相似文献
13.
Using data of the extended Greenwich sunspot catalog for 1874–2006, annual average values of some quantities characterizing
the latitude distribution of sunspot activity have been calculated. The quantity describing the width of the sunspot formation
zone is closely correlated with the corresponding Wolf numbers. A latitude characteristic has been found that demonstrates
in a particular time interval in the fourth year after the maximum of the current 11-year cycle a high correlation with the
Wolf number at the maximum of the next cycle. This time interval is characterized by extreme differences between the speeds
of the motion of the mean latitude and the upper boundary of the sunspot formation zone. A model displaying good stability
and enabling forecasting of the amplitudes of the next 11-year cycles is constructed based on the found correlation. According
to these forecasts, the activity of the next (24th) cycle will be 20–30% higher than in the previous one. 相似文献
14.
Climatic periodicities recorded in lake sediment magnetic susceptibility data: Further evidence for solar forcing on Indian summer monsoon 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Indian summer monsoon exhibits considerable spatio-temporal variability.It is therefore important to understand its dynamics and the inherent periodicities.In this study,we have performed spectral and wavelet analyses of magnetic susceptibility data for sediments from Thimmannanayakanakere(TK)-a small lake in southern India.The main objective of this investigation is to identify and explain the possible origin of the prominent periodicities present in the magnetic susceptibility data.Significant periodicities in the TK χ_(lf)data are centered at 906,232,147,128,96,61,54 and 44 years,which might have a solar origin.The wavelet power spectrum of the raw and detrended χ_(lf)data confirms the findings of spectral analysis and also provides temporal variations of the significant cyclicities during the past3700 cal.years B.P.Positive correlation is documented between sunspot activity and TK xif data;crossspectral analysis of the reconstructed sunspot data and TK xif data suggest that there is a strong coherence between the two datasets as significant periodicities are documented in both.There is a good match between the TK xif and the reconstructed total solar irradiance data for the past 1200 years.However,an out-of-phase relationship is documented at certain time-intervals,which may be attributed to uncertainties in the age-depth model.The results obtained from this study show that solar variations are the main controlling factor of the southwest monsoon and,like other archives from different regions in India,the TK lake sediments have also recorded these solar signatures. 相似文献
15.
Distribution and chronology of Pleistocene permafrost features in France: Database and first results
Pascal Bertran Eric Andrieux Pierre Antoine Sylvie Coutard Laurent Deschodt Philippe Gardère Marion Hernandez Claude Legentil Arnaud Lenoble Morgane Liard Norbert Mercier Olivier Moine Luca Sitzia Brigitte Van Vliet‐Lanoë 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(3):699-711
Numerous periglacial features (polygons, nets, soil stripes, ice‐wedge pseudomorphs and sand‐wedge casts, involutions) have been recorded in France by examining bibliographical sources and aerial photographs. These data show that a large part of France was affected by permafrost during the Pleistocene and only the southern Aquitaine Basin and Languedoc seem to have been beyond its maximum extent. The first OSL ages obtained from the aeolian infill of wedge structures indicate that at least two phases of thermal contraction cracking occurred in southwestern France between ～25 and 36 ka. Chronostratigraphical data from loess in northern France indicate that these episodes correspond to the formation of ice‐wedge networks associated with tundra gleys. In the latter region, two additional permafrost episodes probably occurred during the Last Glacial, the older one corresponding to the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 around 60 ka and the more recent one to MIS 2 around 19–16 ka. Although stratigraphical data indicate that these episodes were relatively short (about one millennium), relict permafrost may have existed for longer periods in northern France. 相似文献
16.
The parameters of a special type of α-effect known in dynamo theory as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are estimated using the data of sunspot catalogs. The estimates support the presence of the Babcock-Leighton α-effect on the Sun. Fluctuations of the α-effect are also estimated. The fluctuation amplitude appreciably exceeds themean value, and the characteristic time for the fluctuations is comparable to the period of the solar rotation. Fluctuations with the parameters found are included in a numericalmodel for the solar dynamo. Computations show irregular changes in the amplitudes of the magnetic cycles on time scales of centuries and millennia. The calculated statistical characteristics of the grand solar minima and maxima agree with the data on solar activity over the Holocene. 相似文献
17.
The authors define a spatio-statistical response of hurricane frequency to the solar cycle. Previous research indicates reduced (increased) hurricane intensities and frequency in the western (eastern) tropical Atlantic. However, no formal quantitative relationship has been spatially established between hurricane frequency and solar activity. The authors use a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model, an increasingly popular approach due to its advantage in facilitating regression modeling of space–time phenomena in the context of large data sets. Regional hurricane frequency over the period 1866–2010 is examined in response to September sunspot number (SSN) while controlling for other relevant climate factors. The response features a 13 % reduction in probability of annual hurricane occurrence for southeastern Cuba, the southern Bahama islands, Haiti, and Jamaica when the SSN is 80 sunspots. In contrast, hurricane risk in regions of the southeastern Atlantic is predicted to increase by 73 % when the SSN is 160 sunspots. The model can be ported to explore other relationships over contiguous space. 相似文献
18.
Variations in the mean solar magnetic field (MSMF) are studied in both the frequency-time and longitude-time domains. A wavelet analysis of the MSMF clearly demonstrates that variations in the mean field are not stationary. Combined with longitude-time diagrams for the background solar magnetic field (BSMF), the analysis reveals the emergence of the background field, which occurs discretely at intervals of 1.5–2 years. Based on an analysis of the fine structure in MSMF variations, we develop a numerical technique to study timedependent heliographic-longitude distribution of the large-scale magnetic field. A detailed picture of the rotation of the large-scale magnetic field is derived for activity cycles 20–23. Coherent structures are detected in longitude-time diagrams obtained by deconvolving the MSMF series. These structures are related to discrete rigid-rotation modes of the large-scale magnetic fields. Various rotational modes coexist and replace one another. During the phase of activity growth, modes with periods of 27.8–28.5 days dominate, whereas a mode with a rotational period of about 27 days dominates during the decline phase. Occasionally, modes with periods of 29–30 days appear. Most structures in the longitude-time MSMF distribution correspond to similar structures in the BSMF distribution for the northern or southern hemisphere. Chronologically, the emergence of the BSMF has frequently been accompanied by changes in the solar rotational regime and has been correlated with variations in the polarity asymmetry in the course of the 11-year activity cycle. 相似文献
19.
Reginald E. Newell 《Quaternary Research》1974,4(2):117-127
It is proposed that the two preferred modes of temperature and circulation of the atmosphere which occurred over the past 100,000 yr correspond to two modes of partitioning of the poleward energy flux between the atmosphere and ocean. At present the ocean carries an appreciable fraction of the transport, for example about three-eighths at 30°N. In the cold mode it is suggested that the ocean carries less, and the atmosphere more, than at present. During the formation of the ice, at 50,000 BP, for example, the overall flux is expected to be slightly lower than at present and during melting, at 16,000 BP, slightly higher. The transition between the modes is seen as a natural imbalance in the atmosphere-ocean energy budget with a gradual warming of the ocean during an Ice Age eventually cluminating in its termination. At the present the imbalance is thought to correspond to a natural cooling of the ocean, which will lead to the next Ice Age.The magnitude of temperature changes in the polar regions differ between the hemispheres in the same way as present seasonal changes, being larger in the northern than in the southern hemisphere.Overall the atmospheric energy cycle was more intense during the Ice Ages than now.Observational tests are proposed by which predictions from the present arguments may be compared with deductions about the environment of the past.Data used for the present state of the atmospheric general circulation are the latest global data available and contain no known major uncertainties. However, data for the oceanic circulation and energy budget are less well known for the present and almost unknown for the past. Hence the proposed imbalances must be treated as part of a speculative hypothesis, but one which eventually may be subject to observational test as no solar variability is invoked. 相似文献
20.
Palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data from Arbon Bleiche, Lake Constance (Switzerland) give evidence of a rapid rise in lake‐level dated by tree‐ring and radiocarbon to 5320 cal. yr BP. This rise event was the latest in a series of three successive episodes of higher lake‐level between 5550 and 5300 cal. yr BP coinciding with glacier advance and tree‐limit decline in the Alps. This west‐central European climate change may have favoured the quick burial and the preservation of the Alpine Iceman recently found in the Tyrolean Alps. It has possible equivalents in many records from various regions in both hemispheres dating to 5600–5000 cal. yr BP and corresponds to global cooling and contrasting patterns of hydrological changes. This major mid‐Holocene climate event marks the Hypsithermal/Neoglaciation transition possibly resulting from a combination of different factors including orbital forcing, changes in ocean circulation and variations in solar activity. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献