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1.
In this paper we derive score tests for spatial independence in mortality or incidence risk in the framework of hierarchical spatial models where different Gaussian Markov random field (MRF) priors are given for modelling the area random effects (specifically, two non-intrinsic Gaussian priors and a convolution Gaussian prior). The techniques used to test the practically relevant and important simplifying hypotheses of an absence of spatial variation in risk will provide a guidance for practitioners to select an adequate model (i.e., a model with an exchangeable-independent-prior, an intrinsic prior, a convolution prior or a non-intrinsic prior, for the area-specific random effects distribution). The proposed methodology is illustrated by analyzing the well-known data set of lip cancer in Scotland and female mortality due to cerebrovascular disease in Navarra, Spain.  相似文献   

2.
Variation in disease risk underlying observed disease counts is increasingly a focus for Bayesian spatial modelling, including applications in spatial data mining. Bayesian analysis of spatial data, whether for disease or other types of event, often employs a conditionally autoregressive prior, which can express spatial dependence commonly present in underlying risks or rates. Such conditionally autoregressive priors typically assume a normal density and uniform local smoothing for underlying risks. However, normality assumptions may be affected or distorted by heteroscedasticity or spatial outliers. It is also desirable that spatial disease models represent variation that is not attributable to spatial dependence. A spatial prior representing spatial heteroscedasticity within a model accommodating both spatial and non-spatial variation is therefore proposed. Illustrative applications are to human TB incidence. A simulation example is based on mainland US states, while a real data application considers TB incidence in 326 English local authorities.  相似文献   

3.
Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions are at the heart of the long standing uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates. In current climate models, cloud feedbacks are strongly influenced by cloud-base cloud amount in the trades. Therefore, understanding the key factors controlling cloudiness near cloud-base in shallow convective regimes has emerged as an important topic of investigation. We review physical understanding of these key controlling factors and discuss the value of the different approaches that have been developed so far, based on global and high-resolution model experimentations and process-oriented analyses across a range of models and for observations. The trade-wind cloud feedbacks appear to depend on two important aspects: (1) how cloudiness near cloud-base is controlled by the local interplay between turbulent, convective and radiative processes; (2) how these processes interact with their surrounding environment and are influenced by mesoscale organization. Our synthesis of studies that have explored these aspects suggests that the large diversity of model responses is related to fundamental differences in how the processes controlling trade cumulus operate in models, notably, whether they are parameterized or resolved. In models with parameterized convection, cloudiness near cloud-base is very sensitive to the vigor of convective mixing in response to changes in environmental conditions. This is in contrast with results from high-resolution models, which suggest that cloudiness near cloud-base is nearly invariant with warming and independent of large-scale environmental changes. Uncertainties are difficult to narrow using current observations, as the trade cumulus variability and its relation to large-scale environmental factors strongly depend on the time and/or spatial scales at which the mechanisms are evaluated. New opportunities for testing physical understanding of the factors controlling shallow cumulus cloud responses using observations and high-resolution modeling on large domains are discussed.  相似文献   

4.
The accelerating deterioration of the coral reefs of Eilat has raised debate over the exact causes and how they affect the reefs. The hypothesis of the present study was that a low recruitment rate of reef-building coral species may play an important role in the decline of the Eilat reefs. Our goal was to assess spatial and temporal recruitment patterns in Eilat, focusing on examining the possible impact of human activities. The results of coral recruitment to 10 series of ceramic tiles on metal racks, revealed very low overall recruitment relative to other geographical regions. In addition, we found that recruitment rates and recruit survival were lowest at sites closest to the major eutrophication sources in Eilat. The low recruitment rates may be chronically too low to compensate for the elevated coral mortality rates of recent years. The significant differences between the present study and a similar study carried out during the same period using a different method, emphasize the crucial need for a standardized method for recruitment assessment in coral reefs worldwide.  相似文献   

5.
Spatial patterns are important features for understanding regional air quality variability. Statistical analysis tools, such as empirical orthogonal function (EOF), have been extensively used to identify and classify spatial patterns. These tools, however, do not directly reveal the related weather conditions. This study used singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify spatial air pollution index (API) patterns related to meteorological conditions in China, one of world’s regions facing catastrophic air pollution. The monthly API and four meteorological variables (precipitation, surface air temperature, humidity, and wind speed) during 2001–2012 in 42 cities in China were used. The two leading SVD spatial patterns display the API anomalies with the same sign across China and opposite signs between northern and southern China, respectively. The meteorological variables have different relationships with these patterns. For the first pattern, wind speed is the most important. The key regions, where the correlations between the API field and the wind speed’s SVD time series are significant at the 99% confidence level, are found nationwide. Precipitation and air temperature are also important in the southern and northern portions of eastern China, respectively. For the second pattern, the key regions occur mainly in northern China for temperature and humidity and southern China for wind speed. Air humidity has the largest contribution to this pattern. The weather-API relationships characterized by these spatial patterns are useful for selecting factors for statistical air quality prediction models and determining the geographic regions with high prediction skills.  相似文献   

6.
The impact of groundwater withdrawal on surface water is a concern of water users and water managers, particularly in the arid western United States. Capture maps are useful tools to spatially assess the impact of groundwater pumping on water sources (e.g., streamflow depletion) and are being used more frequently for conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater. Capture maps have been derived using linear groundwater flow models and rely on the principle of superposition to demonstrate the effects of pumping in various locations on resources of interest. However, nonlinear models are often necessary to simulate head‐dependent boundary conditions and unconfined aquifers. Capture maps developed using nonlinear models with the principle of superposition may over‐ or underestimate capture magnitude and spatial extent. This paper presents new methods for generating capture difference maps, which assess spatial effects of model nonlinearity on capture fraction sensitivity to pumping rate, and for calculating the bias associated with capture maps. The sensitivity of capture map bias to selected parameters related to model design and conceptualization for the arid western United States is explored. This study finds that the simulation of stream continuity, pumping rates, stream incision, well proximity to capture sources, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and groundwater evapotranspiration extinction depth substantially affect capture map bias. Capture difference maps demonstrate that regions with large capture fraction differences are indicative of greater potential capture map bias. Understanding both spatial and temporal bias in capture maps derived from nonlinear groundwater flow models improves their utility and defensibility as conjunctive‐use management tools.  相似文献   

7.
Disease mapping studies the distribution of relative risks or rates in space and time, and typically relies on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) including fixed effects and spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal random effects. These GLMMs are typically not identifiable and constraints are required to achieve sensible results. However, automatic specification of constraints can sometimes lead to misleading results. In particular, the penalized quasi-likelihood fitting technique automatically centers the random effects even when this is not necessary. In the Bayesian approach, the recently-introduced integrated nested Laplace approximations computing technique can also produce wrong results if constraints are not well-specified. In this paper the spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal interaction random effects are reparameterized using the spectral decompositions of their precision matrices to establish the appropriate identifiability constraints. Breast cancer mortality data from Spain is used to illustrate the ideas.  相似文献   

8.
In global studies investigating the Earth’s lithospheric structure, the spectral expressions for the gravimetric forward and inverse modeling of the global gravitational and crustal structure models are preferably used, because of their numerical efficiency. In regional studies, the applied numerical schemes typically utilize the expressions in spatial form. Since the gravity-gradient observations have a more localized support than the gravity measurements, the gravity-gradient data (such as products from the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer - GOCE - gravity-gradiometry satellite mission) could preferably be used in regional studies, because of reducing significantly the spatial data-coverage required for a regional inversion or interpretation. In this study, we investigate this aspect in context of a regional Moho recovery. In particular, we compare the numerical performance of solving the Vening Meinesz-Moritz’s (VMM) inverse problem of isostasy in spectral and spatial domains from the gravity and (vertical) gravity-gradient data. We demonstrate that the VMM spectral solutions from the gravity and gravity-gradient data are (almost) the same, while the VMM spatial solutions differ from the corresponding spectral solutions, especially when using the gravity-gradient data. The validation of the VMM solutions, however, reveals that the VMM spatial solution from the gravity-gradient data has a slightly better agreement with seismic models. A more detailed numerical analysis shows that the VMM spatial solution formulated for the gravity gradient is very sensitive to horizontal spatial variations of the vertical gravity gradient, especially in vicinity of the computation point. Consequently, this solution provides better results in regions with a relatively well-known crustal structure, while suppressing errors caused by crustal model uncertainties from distant zones. Based on these findings we argue that the gravity-gradient data are more suitable than the gravity data for a regional Moho recovery.  相似文献   

9.
During a one‐year period temporal and spatial variations in suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and deposition were studied on a salt and freshwater tidal marsh in the Scheldt estuary (Belgium, SW Netherlands) using automatic water sampling stations and sediment traps. Temporal variations were found to be controlled by tidal inundation. The initial SSC, measured above the marsh surface at the beginning of inundation events, increases linearly with inundation height at high tide. In accordance with this an exponential relationship is observed between inundation time and sedimentation rates, measured over 25 spring–neap cycles. In addition both SSC and sedimentation rates are higher during winter than during summer for the same inundation height or time. Although spatial differences in vegetation characteristics are large between and within the studied salt and freshwater marsh, they do not affect the spatial sedimentation pattern. Sedimentation rates however strongly decrease with increasing (1) surface elevation, (2) distance from the nearest creek or marsh edge and (3) distance from the marsh edge measured along the nearest creek. Based on these three morphometric parameters, the spatio‐temporal sedimentation pattern can be modelled very well using a single multiple regression model for both the salt and freshwater marsh. A method is presented to compute two‐dimensional sedimentation patterns, based on spatial implementation of this regression model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Four new gravity field models from GOCE, two of them combined with GRACE, are compared here with EGM2008. The objectives are to look into the differences in consecutive ranges of the spherical harmonic expansion globally as well as in selected geographical regions and in the regions of the various data sources used for EGM2008. In general, GOCE is able to contribute to improved global gravity models in the spherical harmonic range between 120 and 200 (and above). The agreement between EGM2008 and the GOCE models is very good in well-surveyed regions such as North America, Europe and Australia, with geoid RMS-differences on the order of 4–6 cm. In other regions, where the surface gravity data available for the development of EGM2008 were poor, such as South America, Africa, South-East Asia or China the RMS-differences are on a level of 30 cm. Here GOCE leads to a significant improvement. These findings are confirmed by the analysis of the areas of the various EGM2008 data sources. In the regions of the so-called “fill-in” data of EGM2008 RMS-geoid height differences are high. In Antarctica GOCE also gives important improvements in terms of spatial resolution and accuracy. In general, the agreement between EGM2008 and the GOCE-models up to degree and order (d/o) 200 is good, with a global (excluding the polar gaps of GOCE orbits, throughout) geoid difference RMS of 11 cm, in the ocean areas 8 cm and 20 cm in the continental areas. GOCE models are better suited for ocean circulation studies because no prior ocean information enters into the data reduction process, as it is the case when deducing gravity anomalies from an altimetric mean sea surface. On the other hand, the good consistency between GOCE-models and EGM2008 in ocean areas very likely indicates that the influence of ocean circulation information on EGM2008 is rather small. The four tested GOCE models behave similarly except at the highest latitudes where GOCE lacks data due to its orbit inclination of 96.5° and some form of regularization which has to be applied.  相似文献   

11.
Although there is much evidence of intense soil erosion in cultivated areas of Navarre （Spain）, scarce information currently is available regarding soil loss rates, the spatial and temporal distribution of erosion, and the factors controlling these processes. Rills and ephemeral gullies are frequently responsible for a high percentage of total soil erosion, and these features can be considered a good approximation for the minimum erosion rates. With the main purpose of determining the annual soil loss rates in cultivated areas of Central Navarre, a detailed assessment of rainfall and rill and gully erosion was made in 19 small watersheds cultivated with winter grains or vineyards. The study period spanned from 1995 to 2001. For cereal watersheds, soil losses were caused by only one or two rainfall events each year. High erosion rates were observed （0.20-11.50 kg/m^2 per year）. In vineyards, soil losses were caused by several rainfall events each year, occurring year round. High erosion rates were observed in these vineyards （0.33 y 16.19 kg/m^2 per year）. No erosion was observed in those cultivated watersheds with no-till practices. It can be concluded that rill and ephemeral gully erosion can be very significant in Mediterranean regions, and much more attention should be paid to the problem.  相似文献   

12.
Recently, several models have been proposed for smoothing risks in disease mapping. These models consider different ways of introducing both spatial and temporal dependence as well as spatio-temporal interactions. In this work, a comparison among some autoregressive, moving average, and P-spline models is performed. Firstly, brain cancer mortality data are used to analyze the degree of smoothness introduced by these models. Secondly, two separate simulation studies (one model-based and the other model-free) are carried out to evaluate the model performance in terms of bias, variability, sensitivity, and specificity. We conclude that P-spline models seem to be a good alternative to autoregressive and moving average models when analyzing highly sparse disease mapping data.  相似文献   

13.
Variation in the erodibility of rock units has long been recognized as an important determinant of landscape evolution but has been little studied in landscape evolution models. We use a modified version of the Channel‐Hillslope Integrated Landscape Development (CHILD) model, which explicitly allows for variations in rock strength, to reveal and explore the remarkably rich, complex behavior induced by rock erodibility variations in even very simple geologic settings with invariant climate and tectonics. We study the importance of relative contrasts in erodibility between just two units, the order of these units (whether hard rocks overlie soft or soft rocks overlie hard) and the orientation of the contact between the two units. We emphasize the spatial and temporal evolution of erosion rates, which have important implications for basin analysis, detrital mineral records, and the interpretation of cosmogenic isotope concentrations in detrital samples. Results of the landscape evolution modeling indicate that the stratigraphic order of units in terms of erodibility, the gross orientation of the contact (i.e. dipping away or toward the outlet of the landscape) and the contact dip angle all have measurable effects on landscape evolution, including significant spatial and temporal variations in erosion rates. Steady‐state denudation conditions are unlikely to develop in landscapes with significant contrasts in rock strength in horizontal to moderately tilted rock layers, at least at the scale of the entire landscape. Additionally, our results demonstrate that there is no general relation between rock erodibility and erosion rates in natural settings. Although rock erodibility directly controls the erosion rate constant in our models, it is not uncommon for higher erosion rates to occur in the harder, less erodible rock. Indeed erosion rates may be either greater or less than the rock uplift rate (invariant in time and space in our models) in both hard and soft rocks, depending on the local geology, topography, and the pattern of landscape evolution. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
The optimization of the bathymetric resurvey policy of the Netherlands Hydrographic Service requires insight into sea floor dynamics in the Southern North Sea. To study the spatial variations in sea floor dynamics, the bathymetric archives of the Netherlands Hydrographic Service are analyzed using deformation analysis, a statistical and innovative approach for bathymetric data. Based on the uncertainty of the data, our implementation of deformation analysis selects the significant spatial and temporal parameters, and provides estimates and their uncertainties for those parameters. We focus on sand wave areas in the regions of Rotterdam and of Amsterdam. In those areas, dredging takes place to guarantee a minimum depth. The results reveal a difference in sand wave migration between the two regions, over the past two decades. The dominant wavelengths of the sand waves vary within the regions, but we find a similar wavelength distribution for the two regions. We compare our results to earlier studies of the same sand wave areas in the Rotterdam region, showing similar migration rates, but different wavelengths. It is concluded, based on sand wave dynamics alone, that the Amsterdam region should be assigned a higher resurvey frequency than the Rotterdam region.  相似文献   

15.
Within the scope of the upcoming launch of a new water related satellite mission (SMOS) a global evaluation study was performed on two available global soil moisture products. ERS scatterometer surface wetness data was compared to AMSR-E soil moisture data. This study pointed out a strong similarity between both products in sparse to moderate vegetated regions with an average correlation coefficient of 0.83. Low correlations were found in densely vegetated areas and deserts. The low values in the vegetated regions can be explained by the limited soil moisture retrieval capabilities over dense vegetation covers. Soil emission is attenuated by the canopy and tends to saturate the microwave signal with increasing vegetation density, resulting in a decreased sensor sensitivity to soil moisture variations. It is expected that the new low frequency satellite mission (SMOS) will obtain soil moisture products with a higher quality in these regions. The low correlations in the desert regions are likely due to volume scattering or to the dielectric dynamics within the soil. The volume scattering in dry soils causes a higher backscatter under very dry conditions than under conditions when the sub-surface soil layers are somewhat wet. In addition, at low moisture levels the dielectric constant has a reduced sensitivity in response to changes in the soil moisture content. At a global scale the spatial correspondence of both products is high and both products clearly distinguish similar regions with high seasonal and inter annual variations. Based on the global analyses we concluded that the quality of both products was comparable and in the sparse to moderate vegetated regions both products may be beneficial for large scale validation of SMOS soil moisture. Some limitations of the studied products are different, pointing to significant potential for combining both products into one superior soil moisture data set.  相似文献   

16.
Studying strong motion records and the spatial distribution of ground shaking is of great importance in understanding the underlying causes of damage in earthquakes. Many regions in the world are either not instrumented or are sparsely instrumented. As such, significant opportunities for motion-damage correlations are lost. Two recent and damaging earthquakes belong to the class of lost opportunities, namely the Kashmir (Pakistan) earthquake of October 2005 and the Yogyakarta (Indonesia) earthquake of May 2006. In this paper, an overview of the importance of supply and demand studies in earthquake-stricken regions is given, followed by two examples of investigative engineering seismology aimed at reconstructing the hazard from sparse data. The paper closes with a plea for responsible authorities to invest in seismic monitoring networks in the very near future.  相似文献   

17.
A P-spline ANOVA type model in space-time disease mapping   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  
One of the main objectives in disease mapping is the identification of temporal trends and the production of a series of smoothed maps from which spatial patterns of mortality risks can be monitored over time. When studying rare diseases, conditional autoregressive models have been commonly used for smoothing risks. In this work, a P-spline ANOVA type model is used instead. The model is anisotropic and explicitly considers different smooth terms for space, time, and space-time interaction avoiding, in addition, model identifiability problems. The mean squared error of the log-risk predictor is derived accounting for the variability associated to the estimation of the smoothing parameters. The procedure is illustrated analyzing Spanish prostate cancer mortality data in the period 1975–2008.  相似文献   

18.
本文以中国大陆地震目录为基础资料,以泊松模型为零假设模型,并将Neyman-Scott空间丛集过程的各子模型设为检验模型,采用K-function点过程分析法和最大似然估计法计算各模型参数,并以AIC准侧判定模型的拟合优度,来检验中国大陆地震空间分布模型.检验结果表明:泊松模型的拟合优度最差,说明地震在空间的分布不是完全随机的;广义Thomas模型的拟合优度最好,说明地震的空间分布是丛集的,可用由两个高斯核组成的广义Thomas模型较好地描述.研究结果还表明,同一研究区内,采用不同时段具有不同最小完整起始震级的地震目录计算得到的地震空间分布的丛集尺度几乎不变,这意味着地震空间丛集尺度不受小地震的控制,且可能与研究区的断层规模有关.  相似文献   

19.
Analytical disease mapping aims at linking control variables, the exposure to potential risk factors and to protective elements with the geographical distribution of disease events. Its goals are (a) to identify areas of atypical low and high disease risk and (b) to enhance our understanding of the underlying disease generating process. However, along with many other obstacles in analytical disease mapping, interregional migration masks for degenerative diseases with a long latency period any direct regional association between the observed disease rates and risks factors. Prostate gland cancer mortality rates of the 508 State Economic Areas (SEA) for the reporting period 1970–1994 are linked in an ecological regression model to proxy variables of putatively influential factors. A semi-parametric geographical filtering approach that uses the 1965–1970 interregional census migration flows among the SEA as underlying spatial structure is applied to control for confounding migration effects. This approach allows, despite some simplifying assumptions, to assess direct effects of potential risk factors on the spatial variability of prostate cancer and to visualize underlying spatial dimensions of the disease generating process. Results indicate a shift in relevance of the incorporated exogenous variables.  相似文献   

20.
Much research in environmental epidemiology relies on aggregate-level information on exposure to potentially toxic substances and on relevant covariates. We compare the use of additive (linear) and multiplicative (log-linear) regression models for the analysis of such data. We illustrate how both additive and multiplicative models can be fit to aggregate-level data sets in which disease incidence is the dependent variable, and contrast these results with similar models fitted to individual-level data. We find (1) that for aggregate-level data, multiplicative models are more likely than additive models to introduce bias into the estimation of rates, an effect not found with individual-level data; and (2) that under many circumstances multiplicative models reduce the precision of the estimates, an effect also not found in individual-level models. For both additive and multiplicative models of aggregate-level data, we find that, in the presence of covariates, narrow confidence interval are obtained only when two or more antecedent factors are strongly related to the measured covariate and/or the exposure of primary substantive interest. We conclude that the equivalency of fitting additive versus multiplicative models in studies with individual-level binary data does not carry over to studies that analyze aggregate-level information. For aggregate data, we strongly recommend use of additive models. Supported by Grant #1 U19 EH000102 from the National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.  相似文献   

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