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1.
Perceptions of climate engineering in the South Pacific,Sub-Saharan Africa,and North American Arctic
Nearly all research on public perceptions of climate engineering has been conducted in wealthy, developed countries. However, understanding perspectives from vulnerable populations is critical to inclusive, democratic debate on both research and governance. This study utilized in-depth interviews to explore the perspectives of vulnerable populations in the South Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the North American Arctic. Interviewees in this study were desperate for solutions to climate change and therefore willing to consider climate engineering. However, their willingness to consider climate engineering could be characterized as both deeply reluctant and highly conditional. Interviewees expressed a number of concerns about potential social and political implications of engineering the climate. They also described conditions that may need to be met to ensure that future climates (engineered or otherwise) are more equitable. 相似文献
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Greenhouse gas removal technologies and practices are essential to bring emissions to net zero and limit global warming to 1.5 °C. To achieve this, the majority of integrated assessment models (IAMs), that generate future emissions scenarios and inform the international policy process, use large-scale afforestation and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The feasibility of these technologies and practices has only so far been considered from a relatively narrow techno-economic or biophysical perspective. Here, we present one of the first studies to elicit perspectives through an expert mapping process to open up and broaden the discussion around feasibility of afforestation and BECCS. Our stakeholders included business and industry, non-governmental organisations and policy makers, spanning expertise in bioenergy, forestry, CCS and climate change. Perspectives were elicited on (1) issues relating to BECCS with large-scale afforestation, and (2) specific criteria for assessing feasibility. Participants identified 12 main themes with 61 sub-themes around issues, and 11 main themes with 33 sub-themes around feasibility criteria. Our findings show important societal and governance aspects of feasibility that are currently under-represented, specifically issues around real-world complexity, competing human needs, justice and ethics. Unique to the use of these technologies for greenhouse gas removal are issues around temporal and spatial scale, and greenhouse gas accounting. Using these expert insights, we highlight where IAMs currently poorly capture these concerns. These broader, often more qualitative perspectives, issues and uncertainties must be recognised and accounted for, in order to understand the real-world feasibility of large-scale afforestation and BECCS and the role they play in limiting climate change. These considerations enable widening the scope to broader and deeper discussions about possible and desirable futures, beyond a focus on achieving net-zero emissions, attentive to the effects such decisions may have. We outline approaches that can be used to attend to the complex social and political dimensions that IAMs do not render. By complementing IAMs in this way opportunities can be created to open up considerations of future options and alternatives beyond those framings proposed by IAMs, creating opportunities for inclusion of knowledges, reflexivity and responsibility. 相似文献
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This paper investigates how the notion of future is represented in a large corpus of English-language blogs related to climate change, with an overarching interest in exploring to what extent the perspectives of gloom-and-doom versus more positive perspectives of a sustainable society are represented. We address the following questions: (1) How are representations of the future expressed linguistically in public debates related to climate change? (2) What meanings do the representations convey? Our principal contribution is a set of nine meaning categories that characterize different representations of the future: the categories were derived by following a corpus-assisted discourse analysis approach. Within these categories, the large presence of characterisations related to sustainability, as well as frequent positive value-laden characterisations, are noteworthy. Representations reflect various perspectives of a future for humanity, for nature, and for countries as well as for economies. Further, we have found that when climate change is viewed as a threat, it is in relation to nature, humans and security, while it is seen as an opportunity for growth in business and industry. The results provide knowledge on how people conceive the possible impacts of global climate and environmental change within two broad perspectives of a “gloom-and-doom” versus a “bright” future. This may contribute to an improved basis for political decision making on measures in order to avoid dangerous consequences as well as to encourage engagement in the shift toward a low-carbon future. 相似文献
5.
Fog Research in China： An Overview 总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17
Fog can adversely affect human activity directly and indirectly,resulting in large losses both in terms of the local economy and lives.Much effort has been devoted to studies of fog across many areas of China,and in that context this paper aims to summarize climatic characteristics and review fog field experiments and their major results relating to fog mechanisms,physical properties and chemical characteristics.Progress in the application of remote sensing techniques and numerical simulation in fog research are also discussed.In particular,the effects of urbanization and industrialization on fog are highlighted.To end,perspectives on future fog research are outlined.The goal of this review paper is to introduce fog research in China to the global academic community and thus promote international collaboration on fog research.This is important because most papers on fog in China are published in Chinese,which are unreadable for the vast majority of non-Chinese researchers. 相似文献
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ZHONGXIANG ZHANG 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):166-170
Although many economic studies suggest that China would reap significant benefits from participating in a global cap-and-trade regime, China has consistently refused to participate in international negotiations on this issue. Understanding China's underlying concerns is a key to explaining why China has not embraced an international greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme. This is explored as a potential basis for including China in future negotiations and schemes. This issue is considered from the following perspectives that impact upon China: (a) fairness: how do developing countries perceive emissions caps? (b) why have China and India been sceptical about international emissions trading? (c) what would China's political perceptions be of an inflow of CDM investment in comparison with the exports of emissions permits to the USA? (d) what are the implications of ‘lock in’ to an emissions cap, particularly when no rules and principles exist for setting emissions targets for post-2012? (e) the complex question of establishing future emissions caps for developing countries. 相似文献
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Anticipation methods and tools are increasingly used to try to imagine and govern transformations towards more sustainable futures across different policy domains and sectors. But there is a lack of research into the steering effects of anticipation on present-day governance choices, especially in the face of urgently needed sustainability transformations. This paper seeks to understand how different perspectives on anticipatory governance connect to attempts to guide policy and action toward transformative change. We analyze perspectives on anticipatory governance in a global network of food system foresight practitioners (Foresight4Food) – using a workshop, interviews, and a survey as our sources of data. We connect frameworks on anticipatory governance and on transformation to analyse different perspectives on the future and their implications for actions in the present to transform food systems and offer new insights for theory and practice. In the global Foresight4Food network, we find that most foresight practitioners use hybrid approaches to anticipatory governance that combine fundamentally different assumptions about the future. We also find that despite these diverse food futures, anticipation processes predominantly produce recommendations that follow more prediction-oriented forms of strategic planning in order to mitigate future risks. We further demonstrate that much anticipation for transformation uses the language on deep uncertainty and deliberative action without fully taking its consequences on board. Thus, opportunities for transforming future food systems are missed due to these implicit assumptions that dominate the anticipatory governance of food systems. Our combined framework helps researchers and practitioners to be more reflexive of how assumptions about key human systems such as food system futures shape what is prioritized/marginalized and included/excluded in actions to transform such systems. 相似文献
8.
Kristie L. Ebi Stephane Hallegatte Tom Kram Nigel W. Arnell Timothy R. Carter Jae Edmonds Elmar Kriegler Ritu Mathur Brian C. O’Neill Keywan Riahi Harald Winkler Detlef P. Van Vuuren Timm Zwickel 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):363-372
The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change. 相似文献
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在过去的20多年里,中外对硫酸盐气溶胶做了大量的研究,对它在大气中的排放、含量、光学特征和辐射强迫有了深入的认识;由于硝酸盐气溶胶在大气中平均含量比硫酸盐低很多,因此过去人们对硝酸盐的研究没有给予重视。然而,近年来的研究表明,硝酸盐气溶胶的散射性质在某些波段甚至强于硫酸盐;同时,由于未来对人为硫酸盐前体物的减排,硫酸盐气溶胶排放会大幅度减少,而硝酸盐气溶胶的排放却增长迅速,其在人为气溶胶中所占的比重越来越高,将会导致其在未来造成的辐射强迫有可能超过硫酸盐,使得其在地区范围内和季节尺度上成为重要的辐射强迫和气候影响因子。中国是硝酸盐气溶胶排放量较大的地区,硝酸盐对未来中国气候和气候变化的影响显得越来越重要。因此,就近年来有关硝酸盐气溶胶的排放和在大气中的浓度变化、光学厚度分布特征及其辐射强迫的研究进展做了回顾和介绍,并对其未来的研究做了展望。 相似文献
10.
Joanna Petrasek MacDonald Sherilee L. Harper Ashlee Cunsolo Willox Victoria L. Edge 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):360-371
Globally, youth voices and their experiences, observations, and perceptions about climatic and environmental change and variability are relatively absent in the published literature to date. To address this gap, the goal of this research was to explore the observations and perceptions of climate change held by youth (12–25 years old) in the Inuit community of Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada. Twenty in-depth interviews were conducted with youth in Rigolet to gather data about climatic and environmental changes young people have observed, and the subsequent impacts of these changes on their lives, culture, and community. Youth reported observing and experiencing climatic and environmental changes throughout their lives, with reported impacts falling within five main themes: changing travel conditions and access to hunting; challenges to Inuit culture; a concern for Elder and senior well-being; strong climate-related emotional responses; and youth-identified potential adaptation strategies. More broadly, this research demonstrated that young people have valuable knowledge and perspectives to offer. In particular, researchers, community leaders, and policy makers are encouraged to meaningfully engage youth as crucial stakeholders in future climate change work, research, dialogue, and policy. 相似文献
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The advances in the studies on general circulation and large-scale dynamics,and their prospects for the year of 2000 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this paper, we review the progress made in the studies on general circulation and large-scale dynamics. We divide the advances in the studies on the atmospheric circulation and large-scale dynamics into 4 stages, i.e., the studies on atmospheric wave dynamics; the studies on the observational facts of general circulation; the numerical studies on general circulation; and the studies on planetary wave dynamics, wave-mean flow interaction and nonlinear dynamics. Moreover, the prospects of the studies on the atmospheric circulation and large-scale dynamics for the future are also made in this paper. 相似文献
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云降水物理与人工影响天气研究进展(2008～2012年) 总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4
本文回顾和总结了近5年(2008～2012年)云降水物理与人工影响天气主要研究进展,并讨论了目前存在的主要问题和亟待解决的关键科学问题.内容涉及可分辨云数值模式及模拟研究、云降水的观测与遥感反演研究、气溶胶对云降水的影响及人工影响天气相关的数值模式、观测试验研究等.提高对云降水形成过程、时空结构与演变机理的深入认识,对揭示大气水循环、气候变化过程,提高天气精细化预报、大气云水资源开发利用及气象防灾减灾的能力,具有十分重要的作用. 相似文献
13.
In the context of global environmental change much hope is placed in the ability of resilience thinking to help address environment-related risks. Numerous initiatives aim at incorporating resilience into urban planning practices. The purpose of this paper is to open up a conversation on urban resilience by unpacking how diverse science methods contribute to the production of different narratives of urban resilience mobilizing different experts and forms of evidence. A number of scholars have cautioned against uncritical approaches to resilience and asked what resilience means and for whom, also pointing out the normative dimension of the concept. Building on this emerging scholarship we use insights from science and technology studies (STS) and critical social sciences to look at the knowledge infrastructures and networks of actors involved in the development of resilience strategies. Drawing on fieldwork in Manila, Nairobi, and Cape Town, we map different narratives of urban resilience identifying the ways in which science serves to legitimate or alienate particular perspectives on what should be done. We discuss the multiple roles that science methods have for resilience planning. Whereas urban resilience is often portrayed as consensual, we show that a range of narratives, with diverse socio-material implications, exist at the city level. In this way we unearth the conflict that lies beneath an apparent consensus for resilience policy and outline future research directions for urban sustainability. 相似文献
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Young stakeholders are key actors in social-ecological systems, who have the capacity to be agents of sustainability transformation but are also at high risk of exclusion in the unfolding of global change challenges. Despite the focus of sustainability on future generations, there has been little research effort aimed at understanding young actors’ roles as biosphere stewards. In this work we investigate how young stakeholders perceive and participate in the implementation of sustainability objectives in 74 Biosphere Reserves of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO) the Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Programme across 83 countries, through participatory group workshops, individual surveys and grey literature review. We explore to what extent youth perceptions are aligned or not with current understandings of Biosphere Reserves and how young stakeholders are acting in pursuit of Biosphere Reserve objectives. We find that young stakeholders have a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and challenges faced by environmental governance, such as resilience and adaptation to global change and the governance challenges of implementing adaptive co-management and increasing stakeholder participation. We also show that young stakeholders can be active participants in a wide range of activities that contribute to achieving conservation and development goals in their territories. They are particularly concerned with youth participation within all levels of Biosphere Reserve functioning and with the creation of sustainable livelihood opportunities that will allow future generations to remain in their native territories. Our study provides evidence of the importance of young stakeholder knowledge and perspectives as central actors in conservation and development initiatives, like Biosphere Reserves, and of the need to increase young stakeholder integration and participation within environmental governance. 相似文献
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Within Canada, the Canadian Prairies are particularly drought-prone mainly due to their location in the lee of the western cordillera and distance from large moisture sources. Although previous studies examined the occurrence of Canadian Prairie droughts during instrumental, pre-instrumental and to a lesser extent, future periods, none have specifically focused on all time three scales. Using two different drought indicators, namely the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), this investigation assesses the variability of summer drought duration and intensity over a core region of the Prairies during (a) the pre-instrumental record extending back several centuries (inferred from tree rings), (b) the instrumental record (1901–2005), and (c) the twenty-first century using statistically downscaled climate variables from several Atmosphere–Ocean Global climate models with multiple emission scenarios. Results reveal that observed twentieth century droughts were relatively mild when compared to pre-settlement on the Prairies, but these periods are likely to return (and even worsen) in the future due to the anticipated warming during the course of the twenty-first century. However, future drought projections are distinctly different between the two indices. All PDSI-related model runs show greater drought frequency and severity mainly due to increasing temperatures. Conversely, the precipitation-based SPI indicates no significant changes to future summer drought frequency although there tends to be a higher persistence of multi-year droughts in central and southern portions of Canadian Prairies. These findings therefore stress the importance of considering anticipated warming trends when assessing future regional-scale drought, especially given the uncertainties and lack of consistency in future precipitation signals among climate models. This study can be considered an initial step toward quantifying and understanding Canadian Prairie drought occurrence and severity over several centuries as determined from paleo, instrumental, and climate model data sources. 相似文献
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Assessing the Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation of the Past, Present, and Future 
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下载免费PDF全文 This paper is a review of the recent development of researches on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation （AMOC）. In particular, we will review recent studies that attempt to best assess the stability of the AMOC in the past, present, and future by using a stability indicator related to the freshwater transport by the AMOC. These studies further illustrate a potentially systematic bias in the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean generM circulation models （AOCCMs）, in which the AMOCs seem to be over-stabilized relative to that in the real world. This common model bias in the AMOC stability is contributed, partly, to a common tropical bias associated with the double intertropical convergence zone （ITCZ） in most state-of-the- art AOGCMs, casting doubts on future projection of abrupt climate changes in these climate models. 相似文献
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Knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability is fragmented, because it is found in disparate case studies which use inconsistent terminology and focus on distinct aspects relevant to adaptation. While large-scale syntheses such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provide a high level overview and are useful for international decision-making, there is a need for systematic and flexible access to this research-based knowledge in order to aid future adaptation research and decision-making. Against this background, we present a ‘conceptual’ meta-analysis, a novel approach to meta-analyse studies on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in Europe. The meta-analysis results in a classification scheme for relating the diverse studies. This scheme consists of (i) a classification of studies according to the type of adaptation-relevant results they produce and (ii) a hierarchical classification of the regional and thematic context of studies. The implementation of this scheme, for example in the form of a database, overcomes some of the identified gaps of current adaptation knowledge representation. We furthermore present a quantitative analysis of the classified studies that exemplifies how the developed classification scheme can be applied to get a systematic and quantitative overview of the knowledge they contain. Thus, the conceptual meta-analysis and the classification scheme represent a first step towards a systematisation of knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability and may be seen as a useful complement to qualitative literature reviews. 相似文献
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The United Nations 2030 Agenda catalysed the development of global target-seeking sustainability-oriented scenarios representing alternative pathways to reach the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Implementing the SDGs requires connected actions across local, national, regional, and global levels; thus, target-seeking scenarios need to reflect alternative options and tensions across those scales. We argue that the design of global sustainability-oriented target-seeking scenarios requires a consistent process for capturing multiple and contrasting perspectives on how to reach the goals, including the perspectives from multiple scales (e.g. local, national, regional) and geographic regions (e.g. the Global South). Here we propose a novel approach to co-design global target-seeking scenarios, consisting of (a) capturing global perspectives on pathways to the SDGs through a review of existing global scenarios; (b) a multi-stakeholder process to obtain multiple sub-global perspectives on pathways to sustainability; (c) an analysis of convergences, and crucially, divergences between global and regional perspectives on pathways to reach the SDGs, feeding into the design of new target-seeking scenario narratives. As a case study, we use the results of the 2018 African Dialogue on The World in 2050, discussing the future of agriculture and food systems. The identified divergent themes emerging from our analysis included urbanization, population growth, agricultural practices, and the roles of different actors in the future of agriculture. The results challenge some of the existing underlying assumptions of the current sustainability-oriented global scenarios (e.g. population growth, urbanisation, agricultural practices), indicating the relevance and timeliness of the proposed approach. We suggest that similar approaches can be replicated in other contexts to better inform the process of sustainability-oriented scenario co-design across scales, regions and cultures. In addition, we highlight the implications of the approach for scenario quantification and the evolution of modeling tools. 相似文献
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电线积冰物理过程与数值模拟研究进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
电线积冰对人们的日常生活、电力系统、通信系统等造成了巨大的影响,人们越来越关注电线积冰的形成条件及物理过程,包括气象条件、气流动力学、液滴运动轨迹以及热力学过程。通过外场观测、室内实验和数值模拟研究的不断开展,揭示出电线积冰质量增长过程决定于云降水粒子谱分布、碰撞效率、黏性率、冻结率、碰撞速度和角度等微物理参数,这些参数又受控于降水率、云雾含水量、温度、湿度、风向、风速等宏观气象条件。通过数值模式已可进行电线积冰量和积冰持续时间的定量研究和预测,进而在开发垂冰模式和形态模式等方面也取得了新的进展。在总结过去60多年来电线积冰物理机制和数值模拟研究主要成果的基础上,对开展进一步的深入研究进行了展望。 相似文献
20.
Effective action taken against climate change must find ways to unite scientific and practice-based knowledges associated with the various stakeholders who see themselves as invested in the global delivery of climate governance. Political decision-makers, climate scientists and practitioners approach this challenge from what are often radically different perspectives and experiences. While considerable work has been done to develop the idea of ‘co-production’ in the development of climate action outputs, questions remain over how to best unite the contrasting epistemological traditions and norms associated with different stakeholders. Drawing on the existing literatures on climate action co-production and from translational perspectives on the science-policy interface, in this paper we develop the concept of ‘boundary agency’. Defining this as the agency ‘possessed’ when willing and able to translate between different epistemological communities invested in a similar policy and governance challenge such as climate change, we offer it as a useful means to reflect on participants’ understanding of the ‘co’ in co-production. This is in contrast to the more established (often academic-led) focus on what it is that is being produced by co-production processes. We draw from two complementary empirical studies, which explicitly encouraged i) engagement and ii) reflection on cross-boundary co-production between climate action stakeholders from different backgrounds. Reflecting on the two studies, we discuss the benefits of (and barriers to) encouraging more active and sustained engagement between climate action stakeholders so as to try to actively blur the boundaries between science and policy and, in doing so, invent new epistemological communities of practice. 相似文献