共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Automatic Short-Term Solar Flare Prediction Using Machine Learning and Sunspot Associations 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
In this paper, a machine-learning-based system that could provide automated short-term solar flare prediction is presented.
This system accepts two sets of inputs: McIntosh classification of sunspot groups and solar cycle data. In order to establish
a correlation between solar flares and sunspot groups, the system explores the publicly available solar catalogues from the
National Geophysical Data Center to associate sunspots with their corresponding flares based on their timing and NOAA numbers.
The McIntosh classification for every relevant sunspot is extracted and converted to a numerical format that is suitable for
machine learning algorithms. Using this system we aim to predict whether a certain sunspot class at a certain time is likely
to produce a significant flare within six hours time and if so whether this flare is going to be an X or M flare. Machine
learning algorithms such as Cascade-Correlation Neural Networks (CCNNs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and Radial Basis Function
Networks (RBFN) are optimised and then compared to determine the learning algorithm that would provide the best prediction
performance. It is concluded that SVMs provide the best performance for predicting whether a McIntosh classified sunspot group
is going to flare or not but CCNNs are more capable of predicting the class of the flare to erupt. A hybrid system that combines
a SVM and a CCNN is suggested for future use. 相似文献
2.
Multiple linear regression analysis was used to derive the effective solar flare contributions of each of the McIntosh classification
parameters. The best fits to the combined average number of M- and X-class X-ray flares per day were found when the flare
contributions were assumed to be multiplicative rather than additive. This suggests that nonlinear processes may amplify the
effects of the following different active-region properties encoded in the McIntosh classifications: the length of the sunspot
group, the size and shape of the largest spot, and the distribution of spots within the group. Since many of these active-region
properties are correlated with magnetic field strengths and fluxes, we suggest that the derived correlations reflect a more
fundamental relationship between flare production and the magnetic properties of the region. The derived flare contributions
for the individual McIntosh parameters can be used to derive a flare rate for each of the three-parameter McIntosh classes.
These derived flare rates can be interpreted as smoothed values that may provide better estimates of an active region's expected
flare rate when rare classes are reported or when the multiple observing sites report slightly different classifications.
Guest Worker at NOAA/Space Environment Laboratory 相似文献
3.
22周上升相日面各经度带的活动规律 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文回顾了１９８３年以来一些对太阳活动的谱分析结果。大致可分为两种规律：在太阳活动１１年周期的上升相一般呈现８０天左右的周期。下降相呈现１５０天左右的周期。这些规律均是由太阳全日面总体活动指数得到的谱分析结果。文中将第２２周上升段（１９８７．１．１—１９８８．７．３１）的太阳黑子群和Ｘ射线耀斑按经度带作了极大熵谱估计。结果表明，各经度带的活动规律不同，同一经度带内，太阳黑子群和Ｘ射线耀斑的出现规律也不尽相同。这种将事件按经度带分布得到的活动规律对事件本身的中期预报将会有实际应用价值。 相似文献
4.
We investigate the solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability in terms of the sunspot classification supplemented with sunspot area and its changes. For this we use the NOAA active region data and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive 11 sunspot classes in the McIntosh sunspot group classification. Sunspot area and its changes can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. We classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups by its area: ??Large?? and ??Small??. In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot area changes: ??Decrease??, ??Steady??, and ??Increase??. As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the ??Increase?? sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares in the ??Dkc?? group, the flare occurrence rate of the ??Increase?? sub-group is three times higher than that of the ??Steady?? sub-group. The mean flare occurrence rates and flare probabilities for all sunspot groups increase with the following order: ??Decrease??, ??Steady??, and ??Increase??. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance the occurrence of major solar flares. 相似文献
5.
I. V. Arkhangelskaja A. I. Arkhangelsky Yu. D. Kotov S. N. Kuznetsov A. S. Glyanenko 《Solar System Research》2006,40(2):133-141
The AVS-F apparatus onboard the CORONAS-F satellite (operated from July 31, 2001, to December 6, 2005) was intended for investigation of solar hard X-ray and gamma-ray radiation and for registration of gamma-ray bursts. The AVS-F apparatus constitutes a system for processing the data from two detectors: SONG-D (a CsI(Tl) scintillation detector 200 mm in diameter and 100 mm in height, fully surrounded by plastic anticoincidence shield) and RPS-1 (a solid state CdTe detector 4.9 mm × 4.9 mm in size). Over 60 solar flares stronger than M1.0 class by GOES classification were registered during the period from August 2001 to February 2005. Most flares showed gamma-ray emission during the periods when a rise in the X-ray flux was observed by the GOES instruments. Some flares produced gamma-rays only at maximum X-ray emission; for some flares, the durations of gamma-ray and X-ray emissions were the same. Up to six complexes of spectral lines were detected in some solar flares. The AVS-F instrument analyzes temporal profiles of low-energy gamma-ray emission with a temporal resolution of 1 ms within the first 4.096 seconds of solar flares. The preliminary analysis of such temporal profiles for seven solar flares revealed time regularities with scales from 7 to 35 ms in the 0.1-to 20-MeV energy range only for the flare of January 20, 2005, at a confidence level of 99%. 相似文献
6.
S.-I. Akasofu 《Planetary and Space Science》1984,32(11):1469-1496
The presently prevailing theories of sunspots and solar flares rely on the hypothetical presence of magnetic flux tubes beneath the photosphere and the two subsequent hypotheses, their emergence above the photosphere and explosive magnetic reconnection, converting magnetic energy carried by the flux tubes for solar flare energy.In this paper, we pay attention to the fact that there are large-scale magnetic fields which divide the photosphere into positive and negative (line-of-sight) polarity regions and that they are likely to be more fundamental than sunspot fields, as emphasized most recently by McIntosh (1981). A new phenomenological model of the sunspot pair formation is then constructed by considering an amplification process of these largescale fields near their boundaries by shear flows, including localized vortex motions. The amplification results from a dynamo process associated with such vortex flows and the associated convergence flow in the largescale fields.This dynamo process generates also some of the familiar “force-free” fields or the “sheared” magnetic fields in which the magnetic field-aligned currents are essential. Upward field-aligned currents generated by the dynamo process are carried by downward streaming electrons which are expected to be accelerated by an electric potential structure; a similar structure is responsible for accelerating auroral electrons in the magnetosphere. Depending on the magnetic field configuration and the shear flows, the current-carrying electrons precipitate into different geometrical patterns, causing circular flares, umbral flares, two-ribbon flares, etc. Thus, it is suggested that “low temperature flares” are directly driven by the photospheric dynamo process. 相似文献
7.
太阳磁场的极性反转线(Polarity Inversion Line, PIL)是研究太阳活动、分析太阳磁场结构演变和预测太阳耀斑最重要的日面特征之一.磁场极性反转的位置是太阳耀斑和暗条可能出现的位置."先进天基太阳天文台(ASO-S)"是中国首颗空间太阳专用观测卫星,其搭载的"全日面矢量磁像仪(Full-Disk Vector Magnetograph, FMG)"主要任务是探测高空间、高时间分辨率的全日面矢量磁场.为了提高观测数据使用效率、快速监测太阳活动水平、提高太阳耀斑与日冕物质抛射的预报水平以及更好地服务于FMG数据处理与分析系统,采用了图像自动识别与处理技术,更加精确有效地检测极性反转线.从支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)的模型出发,将极性反转线位置的探测问题转化为一个模式识别中的二分类问题,提出了一种基于支持向量机的极性反转线检测算法,自动探测与识别太阳动力学天文台(Solar Dynamics Observatory, SDO)日震和磁成像仪(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, HMI)磁图的极性反转线位置.与现有算法的对比结果表明,此算法可以精确直观地检测太阳活动区的极性反转线. 相似文献
8.
This paper describes the methods used to obtain the thermal evolution and radiative output during solar flares as observed by the Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). How EVE measurements, due to the temporal cadence, spectral resolution and spectral range, can be used to determine how the thermal plasma radiates at various temperatures throughout the impulsive and gradual phase of flares is presented and discussed in detail. EVE can very accurately determine the radiative output of flares due to pre- and in-flight calibrations. Events are presented that show that the total radiated output of flares depends more on the flare duration than the typical GOES X-ray peak magnitude classification. With SDO observing every flare throughout its entire duration and over a large temperature range, new insights into flare heating and cooling as well as the radiative energy release in EUV wavelengths support existing research into understanding the evolution of solar flares. 相似文献
9.
硬X射线成像是研究太阳耀斑等爆发现象的重要手段.由于采用调制成像而非直接成像的原因, X射线图像在日面上的位置需要借助太阳指向镜提供的仪器指向的日面坐标来确定.因此,指向信息对于耀斑定位实现多波段研究,理解太阳耀斑的物理过程具有重要的科学意义.在此对两种太阳指向镜指向信息的获取算法进行了测试.结合太阳指向镜的设计方案,首先利用SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory)/AIA (Atmospheric Imaging Assembly) 4500?的数据产生测试图像,其次对其进行二值化处理,分别提取日面轮廓和4个边角指定区域面积;最后分别利用最小二乘法和四象限法对太阳中心坐标进行反演.初步结果显示最小二乘法受随机噪声影响小,定位精度相对稳定约为0.25′′,并可提供四象限法解算的初值;后者的精度可以优于0.14′′,但受随机噪声影响较大.两种算法的精度都显著优于硬X射线成像仪(Hard X-ray Imager, HXI)太阳指向镜的设计要求,可为指向数据在将来科学分析中的实际应用提供参考. 相似文献
10.
The focus of automatic solar-flare detection is on the development of efficient feature-based classifiers. The three principal techniques used in this work are multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF), and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers. We have experimented and compared these three methods for solar-flare detection on solar H images obtained from the Big Bear Solar Observatory in California. The preprocessing step is to obtain nine principal features of the solar flares for the classifiers. Experimental results show that by using SVM we can obtain the best classification rate of the solar flares. We believe our work will lead to real-time solar-flare detection using advanced pattern recognition techniques. 相似文献
11.
《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2021,(7)
Solar flare prediction plays an important role in understanding and forecasting space weather.The main goal of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager(HMI), one of the instruments on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, is to study the origin of solar variability and characterize the Sun's magnetic activity.HMI provides continuous full-disk observations of the solar vector magnetic field with high cadence data that lead to reliable predictive capability; yet, solar flare prediction effort utilizing these data is still limited. In this paper, we present a machine-learning-as-a-service(MLaa S) framework, called Deep Sun,for predicting solar flares on the web based on HMI's data products. Specifically, we construct training data by utilizing the physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch(SHARP)and categorize solar flares into four classes, namely B, C, M and X, according to the X-ray flare catalogs available at the National Centers for Environmental Information(NCEI). Thus, the solar flare prediction problem at hand is essentially a multi-class(i.e., four-class) classification problem. The Deep Sun system employs several machine learning algorithms to tackle this multi-class prediction problem and provides an application programming interface(API) for remote programming users. To our knowledge, Deep Sun is the first MLaa S tool capable of predicting solar flares through the internet. 相似文献
12.
We derive an occurrence frequency for white-light flares (WLF) of 15.5 ± 4.5 yr?1 during a 2.6 year period following the maximum of solar cycle 21. This compares with a frequency 5–6 yr?1 derived by McIntosh and Donnelly (1972) during solar cycle 20. We find that the higher frequency of the more recently observed WLFs is due to the availability of patrol data at shorter wavelengths (λ ? 4000 Å), where the contrast of the flare emission is increased; the improved contrast has allowed less energetic (and hence more frequently occurring) events to be classified as WLFs. We find that sufficient conditions for the occurrence of a WLF are: active region magnetic class = delta; sunspot penumbra class = K, with spot group area ≥ 500 millionths of the solar hemisphere; 1–8 Å X-ray burst class ≥ X2. 相似文献
13.
Y. Hakura 《Solar physics》1974,39(2):493-497
Long-term variation in energetic particle emissivity of the sun was examined by the use of PCA, solar proton flux, and geomagnetic data from 1941 to 1973. A solar cycle may be divided into three periods in terms of the Sun's particle emissivity. The first period with a peak of emissivity coinciding with the maximum of Zurich sunspot numbers is characterized by the random occurrence of proton flares along the heliographic longitude. On the other hand, active centers were restricted in certain longitude regions and had a tendency to produce a series of major flares in a week or two during the second period. The peak of particle emissivity in this period occurred a few years after the first. Relativistic proton events were observed during both the periods of enhanced particle emissivity. In the third period near the end of the solar cycle, MeV proton events of 27-days recurrency became predominating, though particle emissivity of the Sun itself was relatively low. 相似文献
14.
Giannina Poletto 《Solar physics》1989,121(1-2):313-322
According to one of the most popular classifications, solar flares may be assigned either to the category of small short-lived events, or to the category of large, long-duration two-ribbon (2-R) flares. Even if such abroad division oversimplifies the flare phenomenon, our knowledge of the characteristics of stellar flares is so poor, that it is worthwhile to investigate the possibility of adopting this classification scheme for stellar flares as well. In particular we will analyze Einstein observations of a long duration flare on EQ Peg to establish whether it might be considered as a stellar analogy of 2-R solar events. To this end we apply to EQ Peg data a reconnection model, developed originally for solar 2-R flares, and conclude that stellar observations are consistent with model predictions, although additional information is required to identify uniquely the physical parameters of the flare region. Application of the model to integrated observations of a 2-R solar flare, for which high spatial resolution data are also available, shows, however, that future integrated observations may allow us to solve the ambiguities of the model and use it as a diagnostic tool for a better understanding of stellar flares. 相似文献
15.
Solar catalogs are frequently handmade by experts using a manual approach or semi-automated approach. The appearance of new tools is very useful because the work is automated. Nowadays it is impossible to produce solar catalogs using these methods, because of the emergence of new spacecraft that provide a huge amount of information. In this article an automated system for detecting and tracking active regions and solar flares throughout their evolution using the Extreme UV Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft is presented. The system is quite complex and consists of different phases: i) acquisition and preprocessing; ii) segmentation of regions of interest; iii) clustering of these regions to form candidate active regions which can become active regions; iv) tracking of active regions; v) detection of solar flares. This article describes all phases, but focuses on the phases of tracking and detection of active regions and solar flares. The system relies on consecutive solar images using a rotation law to track the active regions. Also, graphs of the evolution of a region and solar evolution are presented to detect solar flares. The procedure developed has been tested on 3500 full-disk solar images (corresponding to 35 days) taken from the spacecraft. More than 75 % of the active regions are tracked and more than 85 % of the solar flares are detected. 相似文献
16.
It is generally accepted that densities of quiet-Sun and active region plasma are sufficiently low to justify the optically thin approximation, and this is commonly used in the analysis of line emissions from plasma in the solar corona. However, the densities of solar flare loops are substantially higher, compromising the optically thin approximation. This study begins with a radiative transfer model that uses typical solar flare densities and geometries to show that hot coronal emission lines are not generally optically thin. Furthermore, the model demonstrates that the observed line intensity should exhibit center-to-limb variability (CTLV), with flares observed near the limb being dimmer than those occurring near disk center. The model predictions are validated with an analysis of over 200 flares observed by the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which uses six lines, with peak formation temperatures between 8.9 and 15.8 MK, to show that limb flares are systematically dimmer than disk-center flares. The data are then used to show that the electron column density along the line of sight typically increases by \(1.76 \times 10^{19}~\mbox{cm}^{-2}\) for limb flares over the disk-center flare value. It is shown that the CTLV of hot coronal emissions reduces the amount of ionizing radiation propagating into the solar system, and it changes the relative intensities of lines and bands commonly used for spectral analysis. 相似文献
17.
太阳质子事件耀斑的短期预报 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
王家龙 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1999,(4)
回顾产生太阳质子事件耀斑的短期预报,讨论短期预报在近期应做的研究．给出以下结论：（１）在６０年代和７０年代,质子事件耀斑的预报有相当大的进展;（２）新预报方法的探索和质子流在日冕与行星际的传播问题,是当前改进短期预报的关键;（３）对实际应用的短期预报工作的改进,可能需要从空间天气预报的角度,研究太阳活动区的分类． 相似文献
18.
We describe a catalogue of solar flares observed by the three instruments (SOT, XRT, EIS) onboard the Hinode satellite. From the launch of the Hinode satellite in September 2006 until late 2011, about 5000 solar flares (larger than A-class in the GOES classification) occurred during the five-year period of Hinode observations, and more than half of them were captured by the Hinode telescopes. Observation information for RHESSI and Nobeyama Radioheliograph are also included in the catalogue. This catalogue is distributed to users through the Internet. It will be useful and helpful for scientists in surveying flares to be analyzed, facilitate access to Hinode data, and help advance data analysis activities among the world solar community. 相似文献
19.
《New Astronomy》2017
The purpose of the present study is to investigate the association of solar energetic particle (SEP) events with halo coronal mass ejections (CME) and with their associated solar flares during the period 1997–2014 (solar cycle 23 and 24). We have found that halo CMEs are more effective in producing SEP events. The occurrence probability and peak fluxes of SEPs strongly depend on the halo CMEs speed (V) as follows. The highest associations, 56% for occurrence probability and 90% for average peak fluxes, are found for the halo CMEs with V> 1400 km s−1 but the lowest associations, 20% for occurrence probability and 5% for average peak fluxes, are found for halo CMEs with speed range 600 ≤ V ≤ 1000 km s−1. We have also examined the relationship between SEP events and halo CME associated solar flares and found that 73% of events are associated with western solar flares while only 27% are with eastern solar flares. For longitudinal study, 0–20° belt is found to be more dominant for the SEP events. The association of SEP events with latitudinal solar flares is also examined in the study. 51% of events are associated with those halo CMEs associated solar flares which occur in the southern hemisphere of the Sun while 49% are with those solar flares that occur in the northern hemisphere of the Sun. Also, 10–20° latitudinal belt is found to be likely associated with the SEP events. Further, 45% of SEP events are associated with M-class solar flares while 44% and 11% are with X and C-class respectively. Maximum number of SEP events are found for the fast halo CME associated X- class solar flares (68%) than M and C- class solar flares. 相似文献
20.
太阳无黑子耀斑是太阳耀斑的特殊表现，无黑子耀斑的研究是太阳耀斑研究的重要组成部分。在本文中总结了太阳无黑子耀斑观测研究的以下几个方面的进展概况：自然产率，位置分布特征，观测与形态特征，触发机制能量来源，可能的解释模型。 相似文献