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1.
We study the relationship of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity with similar variations of the solar
wind velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field based on observational data for the Bartels rotation period # 2379 of
23 November 2007 – 19 December 2007. We develop a three-dimensional (3-D) model of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic
ray intensity based on the heliolongitudinally dependent solar wind velocity. A consistent, divergence-free interplanetary
magnetic field is derived by solving Maxwell’s equations with a heliolongitudinally dependent 27-day variation of the solar
wind velocity reproducing in situ observations. We consider two types of 3-D models of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity, i) with a plane heliospheric neutral sheet, and ii) with the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field. The theoretical calculations show that the sector structure
does not significantly influence the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity, as had been shown before, based on
observational data. Furthermore, good agreement is found between the time profiles of the theoretically expected and experimentally
obtained first harmonic waves of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity (with a correlation coefficient
of 0.98±0.02). The expected 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity is inversely correlated with the modulation
parameter ζ (with a correlation coefficient of −0.91±0.05), which is proportional to the product of the solar wind velocity
V and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field B (ζ∼VB). The high anticorrelation between these quantities indicates that the predicted 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic
ray intensity mainly is caused by this basic modulation effect. 相似文献
2.
The evolution of the 27-day recurrence in the series of two solar indices (Wolf number WN and 10.7 cm radio flux F) and two geomagnetic indices (Dst and ζ, variance of the geomagnetic field recorded at a magnetic observatory) have been studied over the 1957 – 2007 time
span. Spectral energies contained in two period domains (25 – 27.3 and 27.3 – 31 days), designated as E
1 and E
2, have been computed. Whereas the evolution of E
1 is the same for the four indices, that of E
2 is essentially different for WN and F on the one hand, Dst and ζ on the other hand. Some general conclusions on the dynamics of the solar outer layers are inferred from these results.
First the solar activity, as measured by WN, and when averaged over a few years, evolves in the same way whatever the latitude.
Second, two families of coronal holes (CHs) are identified; the rapidly and the slowly rotating CHs evolve quite differently. 相似文献
3.
Fluctuations in the solar wind plasma and magnetic field are well described by the sum of two power law distributions. It
has been postulated that these distributions are the result of two independent processes: turbulence, which contributes mainly
to the smaller fluctuations, and crossing the boundaries of flux tubes of coronal origin, which dominates the larger variations.
In this study we explore the correspondence between changes in the magnetic field with changes in other solar wind properties.
Changes in density and temperature may result from either turbulence or coronal structures, whereas changes in composition,
such as the alpha-to-proton ratio are unlikely to arise from in-transit effects. Observations spanning the entire ACE dataset
are compared with a null hypothesis of no correlation between magnetic field discontinuities and changes in other solar wind
parameters. Evidence for coronal structuring is weaker than for in-transit turbulence, with only ∼ 25% of large magnetic field
discontinuities associated with a significant change in the alpha-to-proton ratio, compared to ∼ 40% for significant density
and temperature changes. However, note that a lack of detectable alpha-to-proton signature is not sufficient to discount a
structure as having a solar origin. 相似文献
4.
The comparison of the brightness and area of coronal holes (CH) to the solar wind speed, which was started by Obridko et al. (Solar Phys.
260, 191, 2009a) has been continued. While the previous work was dealing with a relatively short time interval 2000 – 2006, here we have
analyzed the data on coronal holes observed in the Sun throughout activity Cycle 23. A catalog of equatorial coronal holes
has been compiled, and their brightness and area variations during the cycle have been analyzed. It is shown that CH is not
merely an undisturbed zone between the active regions. The corona heating mechanism in CH seems to be essentially the same
as in the regions of higher activity. The reduced brightness is the result of a specific structure with the magnetic field
being quasi-radial at as low an altitude as 1.1R
⊙ or a bit higher. The plasma outflow decreases the measure of emission from CH. With an adequate choice of the photometric
boundaries, the CH area and brightness indices display a fairly high correlation (0.6 – 0.8) with the solar wind velocity
throughout the cycle, except for two years, which deviate dramatically – 2001 and 2007, i.e., the maximum and the minimum of the cycle. The mean brightness of the darkest part of CH, where the field lines are nearly
radial at low altitudes, is of the order of 18 – 20% of the solar brightness, while the brightness of the other parts of the
CH is 30 – 40%. The solar wind streams originate at the base of the coronal hole, which acts as an ejecting nozzle. The solar
wind parameters in CH are determined at the level where the field lines are radial. 相似文献
5.
Time series of daily numbers of solar Hα flares from 1955 to 1997 are studied by means of wavelet power spectra with regard
to predominant periods in the range of ∼ 24 days (synodic). A 24-day period was first reported by Bai (1987) for the occurrence
rate of hard X-ray flares during 1980–1985. Considering the northern and southern hemisphere separately, we find that the
24-day period is not an isolated phenomenon but occurs in each of the four solar cycles investigated (No. 19–22). The 24-day
period can be established also in the occurrence rate of subflares but occurs more prominently in major flares (importance
classes ≥ 1). A comparative analysis of magnetically classified active regions subdivided into magnetically complex (i.e.,
including a γ and/or δ configuration) and non-complex (α, β) reveals a significant relation between the appearance of the
24-day period in Hα flares and magnetically complex sunspot groups, whereas it cannot be established for non-complex groups.
It is suggested that the 24-day period in solar flare occurrence is related to a periodic emergence of new magnetic flux rather
than to the surface rotation of sunspots. 相似文献
6.
We analyze the relationship between the coronal hole (CH) area/position and physical characteristics of the associated corotating
high-speed stream (HSS) in the solar wind at 1 AU. For the analysis we utilize the data in the period DOY 25 – 125 of 2005,
characterized by a very low coronal mass ejection (CME) activity. Distinct correlations between the daily averaged CH parameters
and the solar wind characteristics are found, which allows us to forecast the solar wind velocity v, proton temperature T, proton density n, and magnetic field strength B, several days in advance in periods of low CME activity. The forecast is based on monitoring fractional areas A, covered by CHs in the meridional slices embracing the central meridian distance ranges [−40°,−20°], [−10°,10°], and [20°,40°].
On average, the peaks in the daily values of n, B, T, and v appear delayed by 1, 2, 3, and 4 days, respectively, after the area A attains its maximum in the central-meridian slice. The peak values of the solar wind parameters are correlated to the peak
values of A, which provides also forecasting of the peak values of n, B, T, and v. The most accurate prediction can be obtained for the solar wind velocity, for which the average relative difference between
the calculated and the observed peak values amounts to
%. The forecast reliability is somewhat lower in the case of T, B, and n (
, 30, and 40%, respectively). The space weather implications are discussed, including the perspectives for advancing the real-time
calculation of the Sun – Earth transit times of coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks, by including more realistic
real-time estimates of the solar wind characteristics. 相似文献
7.
Forecasting space weather more accurately from solar observations requires an understanding of the variations in physical
properties of interplanetary (IP) shocks as solar activity changes. We examined the characteristics (occurrence rate, physical
parameters, and types of shock driver) of IP shocks. During the period of 1995 – 2001, a total of 249 forward IP shocks were
observed. In calculating the shock parameters, we used the solar wind data from Wind at the solar minimum period (1995 – 1997) and from ACE since 1998 including the solar maximum period (1999 – 2001). Most
of IP shocks (68%) are concentrated in the solar maximum period. The values of physical quantities of IP shocks, such as the
shock speed, the sonic Mach number, and the ratio of plasma density compression, are larger at solar maximum than at solar
minimum. However, the ratio of IMF compression is larger at solar minimum. The IP shock drivers are classified into four groups:
magnetic clouds (MCs), ejecta, high speed streams (HSSs), and unidentified drivers. The MC is the most dominant and strong
shock driver and 150 out of total 249 IP shocks are driven by MCs. The MC is a principal and very effective shock driver not
only at solar maximum but also at solar minimum, in contrast to results from previous studies, where the HSS is considered
as the dominant IP shock driver. 相似文献
8.
This contribution is a follow-up to the recent paper of Kuznetsov et al. (Contrib. Astron. Obs. Skalnaté Pleso
36, 85, 2006) on the ground level enhancement (GLE) on 20 January 2005. We focused on a study of Forbush decrease (FD) of 17 – 18 and
21 – 22 January 2005, respectively. The data from the neutron monitor at Lomnicky Štít (1 min counts) and from the Geomagnetic
Observatory in Hurbanovo, both in Slovakia, were used as the basis for our investigation. The data on magnetic field and solar
wind from GOES 10 and 12, SOHO-CELIAS, ACE and WIND satellites were used for better understanding of the global evolution
of the event. The magnetic field is transformed to the RTN (Radial – Tangential – Normal) system where only the disturbed
part of the field is compared, i.e., daily variations and a constant part are subtracted. The field reduction method is described. Our results are temporal vector
diagrams of variation of all parameters at all positions from where we used the data. The amplitudes of |B| exceed 100 nT and variations during the arrival of the wavefront of CME take place simultaneously at the ground-based station
and at GOES satellites. The character of the variations is as if there would be regions with the dominant electric charge
of opposite signs, or electric currents with different orientations in the CME. On the basis of the values v
p and n
p and using certain assumptions we determined the mass of CME on 17 January and 21 January, respectively, of 1012 kg. A decrease of the cosmic ray level runs suddenly (during 10 minutes), starting, however, about two hours after a sudden
change of the magnetic field. 相似文献
9.
P. Janardhan 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2006,27(2-3):201-207
At the Sun-Earth distance of one astronomical unit (1 AU), the solar wind is known to be strongly supersonic and super Alfvenic
with Mach and Alfven numbers being on average 12 and 9 respectively. Also, solar wind densities (average ∼10cm-3) and velocities (average ∼450kms-1) at 1AU, are known to be inversely correlated with low velocities having higher than average densities andvice versa. However, on May 11 and 12 1999 the Earth was engulfed by an unusually low density (< 0.1cm-3) and low velocity (< 350km s-1) solar wind with an Alfven Mach number significantly less than 1. This was a unique low-velocity, low-density, sub-Alfvénic
solar wind flow which spacecraft observations have shown lasted more than 24 hours. One consequence of this extremely tenuous
solar wind was a spectacular expansion of the Earth’s magnetosphere and bow shock. The expanding bow shock was observed by
several spacecraft and reached record upstream distances of nearly 60 Earth radii, the lunar orbit. The event was so dramatic
that it has come to be known asthe solar wind disappearance event. Though extensive studies of this event were made by many authors in the past, it has only been recently shown that the unusual
solar wind flows characterizing this event originated from a small coronal hole in the vicinity of a large active region on
the Sun. These recent results have put to rest speculation that such events are associated with global phenomenon like the
periodic solar polar field reversal that occurs at the maximum of each solar cycle. In this paper we revisit the 11 May 1999
event, look at other disappearance events that have ocurred in the past, examine the reasons why speculations about the association
of such events with global phenomena like solar polar field reversals were made and also examine the role of transient coronal
holes as a possible solar source for such events. 相似文献
10.
Werner M. Neupert 《Solar physics》2011,272(2):319-335
The two-band soft X-ray observations of solar flares made by the Naval Research Laboratory’s (NRL) SOLar RADiation (SOLRAD)
satellites and by the Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellites (GOES) operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center have produced
a nearly continuous record of solar flare observations over a period of more than forty years (1969 – 2011). However, early
GOES observations (i.e., GOES-2) and later (GOES-8 and subsequent missions) are not directly comparable due to changes in the conversion of measured
currents to integrated fluxes in the two spectral bands that were adopted: 0.05 – 0.3 (or 0.4) nm, which we refer to as XS
and 0.1 – 0.8 nm (XL). Furthermore, additional flux adjustments, using overlapping data sets, were imposed to provide consistency
of flare-flux levels from mission to mission. This article evaluates the results of these changes and compares experimental
GOES-8/GOES-2 results with changes predicted from modeled flare spectra. The factors by which recent GOES observations can
be matched to GOES-2 are then optimized by adapting a technique first used to extrapolate GOES X-ray fluxes above saturation
using ionospheric VLF radio phase enhancements. A nearly 20% increase in published GOES-8 XL data would be required to match
to GOES-2 XL fluxes, which were based on observed flare spectra. On the other hand, a factor of 1.07 would match GOES-8 and
later flat-spectrum 0.1 – 0.8 nm fluxes to GOES-2 XL if the latter data were converted to a flat-spectrum basis. Finally,
GOES-8 observations are compared to solar soft X-ray estimates made concurrently with other techniques. Published GOES-8 0.1 – 0.8 nm
fluxes are found to be 0.59 of the mean of these other determinations. Rescaling GOES to a realistic flare spectrum and removing
a 30% downward adjustment applied to the GOES-8 measurements during initial data processing would place GOES-8 and later GOES
XL fluxes at 0.94 of this XL mean. GOES-2 on the same scale would lie at about 0.70 of this mean. Significant uncertainties
in the absolute levels of broad band soft X-ray fluxes still remain, however. 相似文献
11.
Various solar wind forecasting methods have been developed during the past decade, such as the Wang?–?Sheeley model and the Hakamada?–?Akasofu?–?Fry Version 2 (HAFv2) model. Also, considerable correlation has been found between the solar wind speed v and the coronal hole (CH) area A M on the visible side of the Sun, showing quantitative improvement of forecasting accuracy in low CME activity periods (e.g., Vr?nak, Temmer, and Veronig, Solar Phys. 240, 315, 2007a). Properties of lower layers of the solar atmosphere are good indications of the subsequent interplanetary and geomagnetic activities. We analyze the SOHO/EIT 284 Å images and construct a new forecasting factor (Pch) from the brightness of the solar EUV emission, and a good correlation is found between the Pch factor and the 3-day-lag solar wind velocity (v) probed by the ACE spacecraft. The main difference between the Pch and A M factor is that Pch does not depend on the CH-boundary estimate and can reflect both the area and brightness of CH. A simple method of forecasting the solar wind speed near Earth in low CME activity periods is presented. Between Pch and v from 21 November until 26 December 2003, the linear correlation coefficient is R=0.89. For comparison we also analyze the data in the same period (DOY 25?–?125, 2005) as Vr?nak, Temmer, and Veronig (Solar Phys. 240, 315, 2007a), who used the CH areas A M for predicting the solar wind parameters. In this period the correlation coefficient between Pch and v is R=0.70, whereas for A M and v the correlation coefficient is R=0.62. The average relative difference between the calculated and the observed values is $\overline{|\delta|}\approx 12.15\%Various solar wind forecasting methods have been developed during the past decade, such as the Wang – Sheeley model and the
Hakamada – Akasofu – Fry Version 2 (HAFv2) model. Also, considerable correlation has been found between the solar wind speed
v and the coronal hole (CH) area A
M on the visible side of the Sun, showing quantitative improvement of forecasting accuracy in low CME activity periods (e.g., Vršnak, Temmer, and Veronig, Solar Phys.
240, 315, 2007a). Properties of lower layers of the solar atmosphere are good indications of the subsequent interplanetary and geomagnetic
activities. We analyze the SOHO/EIT 284 ? images and construct a new forecasting factor (Pch) from the brightness of the solar
EUV emission, and a good correlation is found between the Pch factor and the 3-day-lag solar wind velocity (v) probed by the ACE spacecraft. The main difference between the Pch and A
M factor is that Pch does not depend on the CH-boundary estimate and can reflect both the area and brightness of CH. A simple
method of forecasting the solar wind speed near Earth in low CME activity periods is presented. Between Pch and v from 21 November until 26 December 2003, the linear correlation coefficient is R=0.89. For comparison we also analyze the data in the same period (DOY 25 – 125, 2005) as Vršnak, Temmer, and Veronig (Solar Phys.
240, 315, 2007a), who used the CH areas A
M for predicting the solar wind parameters. In this period the correlation coefficient between Pch and v is R=0.70, whereas for A
M and v the correlation coefficient is R=0.62. The average relative difference between the calculated and the observed values is
. Furthermore, for the ten peaks during the analysis period, Pch and v show a correlation coefficient of R=0.78, and the average relative difference between the calculated and the observed peak values is
. Moreover, the Pch factor can eliminate personal bias in the forecasting process, which existed in the method using CH area
as input parameter, because CH area depends on the CH-boundary estimate but Pch does not. Until now the CH-boundary could
not be easily determined since no quantitative criteria can be used to precisely locate CHs from observations, which led to
differences in forecasting accuracy. 相似文献
12.
Synoptic maps of white-light coronal brightness from SOHO/LASCO C2 and distributions of solar wind velocity obtained from
interplanetary scintillation are studied. Regions with velocity V≈300 – 450 km s−1 and increased density N>10 cm−3, typical of the “slow” solar wind originating from the belt and chains of streamers, are shown to exist at Earth’s orbit,
between the fast solar wind flows (with a maximum velocity V
max ≈450 – 800 km s−1). The belt and chains of streamers are the main sources of the “slow” solar wind. As the sources of “slow” solar wind, the
contribution from the chains of streamers may be comparable to that from the streamer belt. 相似文献
13.
C. O. Lee J. G. Luhmann D. Odstrcil P. J. MacNeice I. de Pater P. Riley C. N. Arge 《Solar physics》2009,254(1):155-183
We present results of solar-wind parameters generated by 3D MHD models. The ENLIL inner-heliosphere solar-wind model together
with the MAS or Wang – Sheeley – Arge (WSA) coronal models, describe the steady solar-wind stream structure and its origins
in the solar corona. The MAS/ENLIL and WSA/ENLIL models have been tuned to provide a simulation of plasma moments as well
as interplanetary magnetic-field magnitude and polarity in the absence of disturbances from coronal transients. To investigate
how well the models describe the ambient solar wind structure from the Sun out to 1 AU, the model results are compared to
solar-wind measurements from the ACE spacecraft. We find that there is an overall agreement between the observations and the
model results for the general large-scale solar-wind structures and trends, such as the timing of the high-density structures
and the low- and high-speed winds, as well as the magnetic sector structures. The time period of our study is the declining
phase of Solar Cycle 23 when the solar activity involves well-defined stream structure, which is ideal for testing a quasi-steady-state
solar-wind model. 相似文献
14.
We present identifications of coronal holes (CHs) from observations in the He?i 10?830 Å line made at Kitt Peak Observatory (from 1975 to 2003) and in the EUV 195 Å wavelength with SOHO/EIT (from 1996 to 2012). To determine whether a feature is a CH we have developed semi-automatic techniques for delineating CH borders on synoptic charts and for subsequent mapping of these borders on magnetic-field charts. Using these techniques, we superimposed CH borders on magnetic-field charts over the time interval from 1975 to 2012. A major contribution to the total area was made by high-latitude CHs, but in the declining phase of solar cycle 23, the contribution from low-latitude CHs increased substantially. Variations in the flux of Galactic cosmic rays and those in the inclination angle of the heliospheric current sheet followed the cyclic variations of CH areas. High-latitude CHs affect the properties of the solar wind in the ecliptic plane. 相似文献
15.
Analysis of the Interball-1 spacecraft data (1995 – 2000) has shown that the solar wind ion flux sometimes increases or decreases abruptly by more than
20% over a time period of several seconds or minutes. Typically, the amplitude of such sharp changes in the solar wind ion
flux (SCIFs) is larger than 0.5×108 cm−2 s−1. These sudden changes of the ion flux were also observed by the Solar Wind Experiment (SWE), on board the Wind spacecraft, as the solar wind density increases and decreases with negligible changes in the solar wind velocity. SCIFs occur
irregularly at 1 AU, when plasma flows with specific properties come to the Earth’s orbit. SCIFs are usually observed in slow,
turbulent solar wind with increased density and interplanetary magnetic field strength. The number of times SCIFs occur during
a day is simulated using the solar wind density, magnetic field, and their standard deviations as input parameters for a period
of five years. A correlation coefficient of ∼0.7 is obtained between the modelled and the experimental data. It is found that
SCIFs are not associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), corotating interaction regions (CIRs), or interplanetary shocks;
however, 85% of the sector boundaries are surrounded by SCIFs. The properties of the solar wind plasma for days with five
or more SCIF observations are the same as those of the solar wind plasma at the sector boundaries. One possible explanation
for the occurrence of SCIFs (near sector boundaries) is magnetic reconnection at the heliospheric current sheet or local current
sheets. Other probable causes of SCIFs (inside sectors) are turbulent processes in the slow solar wind and at the crossings
of flux tubes. 相似文献
16.
The behavior of solar energetic particles (SEPs) in a shock – magnetic cloud interacting complex structure observed by the
Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft on 5 November 2001 is analyzed. A strong shock causing magnetic field strength and solar wind speed increases
of about 41 nT and 300 km s−1, respectively, propagated within a preceding magnetic cloud (MC). It is found that an extraordinary SEP enhancement appeared
at the high-energy (≥10 MeV) proton intensities and extended over and only over the entire period of the shock – MC structure
passing through the spacecraft. Such SEP behavior is much different from the usual picture that the SEPs are depressed in
MCs. The comparison of this event with other top SEP events of solar cycle 23 (2000 Bastille Day and 2003 Halloween events)
shows that such an enhancement resulted from the effects of the shock – MC complex structure leading to the highest ≥10 MeV
proton intensity of solar cycle 23. Our analysis suggests that the relatively isolated magnetic field configuration of MCs
combined with an embedded strong shock could significantly enhance the SEP intensity; SEPs are accelerated by the shock and
confined into the MC. Further, we find that the SEP enhancement at lower energies happened not only within the shock – MC
structure but also after it, probably owing to the presence of a following MC-like structure. This is consistent with the
picture that SEP fluxes could be enhanced in the magnetic topology between two MCs, which was proposed based on numerical
simulations by Kallenrode and Cliver (Proc. 27th ICRC
8, 3318, 2001b). 相似文献
17.
Marta M. Cassiano Pierre Kaufmann Rogério Marcon Amauri S. Kudaka Adolfo Marun Rodolfo Godoy Pablo Pereyra Arline M. Melo Hugo Levato 《Solar physics》2010,264(1):71-79
Solar observations in the mid-infrared 8 – 14 μm band continuum were carried out with cadence of 5 frames per second, in December 2007.
Rapid small heated sources, with a typical duration of the order of seconds, were found on the bright plage-like areas around
sunspots, in association with relatively weak GOES soft X-ray bursts. This work presents the analysis of fast mid-infrared
flashes detected during a GOES B2.0-class event on 10 December 2007, beginning at about 10:40 UT. Rapid brightness temperature
enhancements of 0.5 to 2.0 K were detected at the Earth by a microbolometer array, using a telescope with 10.5 cm diameter
aperture producing a diffraction-limited photometric beam of 25 arc sec. The minimum detectable temperature change was of
0.1 K. The corresponding fluxes are 30 – 130 solar flux units. At the solar surface the estimated rapid brightenings represented
a temperature enhancement of 50 – 150 K. 相似文献
18.
We have used the daily values of the equatorial rotation rate determined from the Mt. Wilson daily Doppler-velocity measurements
during the period 3 December 1985 – 5 March 2007 to search for periodicities in the solar equatorial rotation rate on time
scales shorter than 11 years. After the daily values have been binned into 61-day intervals, a cosine fit with a period of
one year was applied to the sequence to remove any seasonal trend. The spectral properties of this sequence were then investigated
by using standard Fourier analysis, maximum-entropy methods, and a Morlet-wavelet analysis. From the analysis of the Fourier
power spectrum we detected peaks with periodicities around 7.6, 2.8, and 1.47 years and 245, 182, and 158 days, but none of
them were at a statistically significant level. In the Morlet-wavelet analysis the ≈1.47-year periodicity is detected only
for 1990 (i.e., near the maximum of cycle 22) and near the end of cycle 22 in 1995. From the same wavelet analysis we found some evidence
for the existence of a 2.8-year periodicity and a 245-day periodicity in the equatorial rotation rate around the years 1990
and 1992, respectively. In the data taken during the period 1996 – 2007, when the Mt. Wilson spectrograph instrumentation
was more stable, we were unable to detect any signal from the wavelet analysis. Thus, the detected periodicities during the
period before 1996 could be artifacts of frequent changes in the Mt. Wilson spectrograph instrumentation. However, the temporal
behavior of most of the activity phenomena during cycles 22 (1986 – 1996) and 23 (after 1997) is considerably different. Therefore,
the presence of the aforementioned short-term periodicities during the last cycle and absence of them in the current cycle
may, in principle, be real temporal behavior of the solar rotation during these cycles. 相似文献
19.
We present a simple method of forecasting the geomagnetic storms caused by high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind. The
method is based on the empirical correlation between the coronal hole area/position and the value of the Dst index, which is established in a period of low interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) activity. On average, the highest
geomagnetic activity, i.e., the minimum in Dst, occurs four days after a low-latitude coronal hole (CH) crosses the central meridian. The amplitude of the Dst dip is correlated with the CH area and depends on the magnetic polarity of the CH due to the Russell – McPherron effect.
The Dst variation may be predicted by employing the expression Dst(t)=(−65±25×cos λ)[A(t
*)]0.5, where A(t
*) is the fractional CH area measured in the central-meridian slice [−10°,10°] of the solar disc, λ is the ecliptic longitude of the Earth, ± stands for positive/negative CH polarity, and t−t
*=4 days. In periods of low ICME activity, the proposed expression provides forecasting of the amplitude of the HSS-associated
Dst dip to an accuracy of ≈30%. However, the time of occurrence of the Dst minimum cannot be predicted to better than ±2 days, and consequently, the overall mean relative difference between the observed
and calculated daily values of Dst ranges around 50%. 相似文献
20.
利用小波变换对GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites)系列卫星(GOES 10/11) 1999年3月至2010年12月和风云2号系列卫星(FY 2C/2D) 2004年10月至2012年5月记录的2 MeV高能电子通量变化情况进行了相关研究,发现GOES卫星观测到的高能电子通量存在明显的13.9 d、 27.7 d、 187.0 d和342.9 d周期, FY卫星观测到的高能电子通量存在明显的13.9 d、27.7 d、222.3 d和374.0 d周期,在某些年份GOES和FY卫星均存在9 d的周期,与地磁Dst (赤道环电流指数)、 AE (极光电射流指数)指数周期高度相似.将高能电子通量和Dst、AE指数进行交叉小波分析,并利用该算法的多分辨率特点以及时域、频域局部化分析方法,将数据按不同频率进行分解,从低频系数重构图像和交叉小波谱图可以清楚看出高能电子通量和地磁指数的关系.基于FY和GOES卫星高能电子通量良好的相关性,对多卫星高能电子通量变化短周期相同、中长周期不同进一步研究,对比发现不同地磁扰动引起的GOES和FY卫星高能电子通量变化存在各向异性,小磁暴也可以对高能电子通量造成和强磁暴一样的效果,并且某些时候存在地方时一致的24 h周期.这一结果表明对地磁宁静期高能电子研究至关重要,同时对理解太阳活动,预报高能电子能谱和预警深层充电事件以及验证预测磁暴、亚暴等事件具有重要意义. 相似文献