共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 203 毫秒
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云南洱海桃溪河口净化工程的设计思路及初步净化效果 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
以太湖上游西苕溪流域为研究对象,通过分布式水文模型HEC-HMS模拟次降雨洪水过程:采用可视化数据存储系统HEC-DSS建立水文气象数据库,利用Geodatabase地理数据库技术集成流域自然属性数据库,通过距离平方倒数法对雨量数据进行空间插值,SCS曲线数法计算水文损失,运动波法计算直接径流与河道洪水演进,选用基流指数退水法模拟流域基流,并对模型中水库模拟部分进行适当修正.经模型校验,模拟结果表明,计算流量与观测流量拟合较好,效率系数大于0.8,洪峰流量误差低于4%,峰现时间误差低于2 h,该模型在土地利用变化对洪水水文要素的影响研究方面有较好的应用前景. 相似文献
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鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟 总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0
本文以鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统为研究对象,鉴于该湖泊流域系统尺度较大,下垫面自然属性呈现高度空间异质性且具有流域-平原区-湖泊不同机制的水文水动力过程,为了真实描述湖泊流域间的水文水动力联系及反映不同过程间的作用机制,构建了鄱阳湖湖泊流域联合模拟模型.该模型基于自主研发的流域分布式水文模型WATLAC和湖滨平原区产流模型以及水动力模型MIKE 21 3个不同功能子模型的连接来实现该复杂系统的模拟.模型的联合采用输入-输出驱动及子模型的顺序执行进程,即将五大子流域与平原区入湖径流量作为输入条件来驱动湖泊水动力模型,模拟湖泊水位对流域入湖径流量的响应.以2000-2005年鄱阳湖流域6个水文站点的河道径流量、流域基流指数以及湖泊4个站点的水位资料来率定模型,其中各站点日径流量拟合的纳希效率系数Ens为0.71~0.84,确定性系数R2介于0.70~0.88之间,而湖泊各站点水位拟合的纳希效率系数Ens变化为0.88~0.98,确定性系数R2为0.96~0.98,均取得令人满意的率定结果.本文提出的鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟模型能较为理想再现湖泊水位对流域降雨-径流过程的响应.水位模拟结果进一步表明,该联合模型能用来获取重要的水动力空间变化特征.该模型可作为有效工具定量揭示湖泊流域系统水文水动力过程对气候变化和流域人类活动的响应. 相似文献
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新安江模型河网汇流参数Cs对洪峰模拟影响较大,目前Cs的确定需依赖于大量的历史数据,因此Cs的确定成为无资料地区和资料匮乏区水文模型应用中亟需解决的棘手问题.本文基于参数的物理意义,通过自相似河网结构的假定,构建Cs与河网形态、流域下垫面特征的相关联系,提出基于河链蓄量方程的Cs估算方法,对半干旱、半湿润和湿润地区等不同水文气象分区的11个流域的Cs值进行推算并代入新安江模型中进行模拟,经比较发现,11个流域子流域Cs计算均值与新安江模型率定结果相近,说明该Cs计算方法是合理的.选取陈河、屯溪两个典型流域研究单元流域属性对Cs的影响,由结果可以看出Cs与流域面积、河链数、河宽呈正相关,与单元流域距离出口的远近呈负相关,这表明流域分块后各单元流域Cs值不一致,而新安江模型中采用相同Cs值对不同单元进行调节必然会造成汇流计算的误差.为进一步提高该方法在无资料地区的应用效果,将新安江模型汇流模块修改为每个单元使用对应的Cs计算值进行滞后演算,以陈河和屯溪流域为例采用新安江模型Cs率定值、Cs计算均值以及修改后新安江模型3种不同方案进行模拟比较,从模拟结果可以得出,修改后的模型具有明显优势,将模型参数与下垫面条件建立了联系,模型物理机制提高且参数的独立性增强,对于新安江模型在无资料地区的应用具有重要的指导意义. 相似文献
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为了改善生态调度效果,提高生态调度实践成功率,采用医学领域适用性广、准确性高、直观性强的受试者工作特征曲线法(receiver operating characteristic, ROC),以三峡水库为例,提出了一套基于生物水文响应模型的刺激四大家鱼繁殖生态调度目标量化方法,包括涨水事件界定及生态水文指标选择、鱼类自然繁殖事件及有效繁殖响应界定、生物-水文响应模型构建与多指标判别优选等多个环节。运用三峡水库运行后2013—2019年(除2016年)6年47场次宜昌江段的涨水事件和24次四大家鱼有效繁殖响应的实际观测数据构建模型并量化三峡水库生态调度目标。结果表明:(1)依据初始流量Q0、洪峰流量Qpeak、流量总增长量Qsum和流量日增长率dQ这4个指标所建立的单指标生物-水文响应模型具有较好判别四大家鱼自然繁殖对水文条件是否响应的能力;(2)各评价指标Q0、Qpeak、Qsum、dQ的最佳阈值分别为14960 m3/s、19610 m3/s、4050 m3/s及1405 m3/(s·d);单指标模型性能排序为dQ＞Qpeak＞Qsum＞Q0;(3)依据dQ或Qpeak的指标组合方式建立的多指标生物-水文响应模型综合性能最佳。结果表明,ROC模型方法结果形式简单、预见性强,据此量化生态调度目标,可为其他流域、水库的鱼类繁殖响应判别和水库生态调度方案制定提供参考借鉴。 相似文献
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数据同化是提升复杂机理过程模型精度的关键技术之一,而湖泊藻类模型的敏感参数具有随时间动态变化的特征,导致数据同化过程中无法精准更新某一时段的敏感参数,影响数据同化的模型精度提升效果.针对上述问题,本研究耦合了参数敏感性分析与集合卡尔曼滤波,研发了一种能够实时识别模型敏感参数的新型数据同化算法;为验证研发算法的效率,依托巢湖的高频水质自动监测数据,测试算法对藻类动态模型的精度提升效果.测试结果表明：研发算法能够精准跟踪模型敏感参数的动态变化,并根据监测数据实时更新模型敏感参数,实现了水质高频自动监测数据与藻类动态模型的深度融合,藻类生物量模拟精度提升了55%,即纳什系数（NSE）从0.49提升到0.76,模拟精度提升效果也显著优于传统数据同化算法（NSE=0.63）.研发算法可应用于其它水生态环境模型的数据同化,为水生态环境相关要素的精准模拟预测提供关键技术支撑. 相似文献
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建立了考虑淹没频率和淹没水深等生境因子的水动力-生境适宜度数学模型,基于三峡水库蓄水前后的长序列水文观测数据和不同时期的河道地形资料,研究了近20年来武汉河段汉口边滩南荻(Miscanthus lutarioriparius)-芦苇(Phragmites australis)群落的适宜生境变化情况,量化了不同因素的影响.结果表明:所建立的生境数值模型能较好地模拟还原南荻-芦苇群落实际空间分布情况.与2001年前的情况相比,若维持地形不变,三峡水库蓄水后的径流过程调平、年内水位变幅减小将导致群落适宜分布带向河道方向转移,且面积减小33.24%;若保持水文条件不变,岸线利用引起的地形坡度坦化将导致群落扩张,其分布面积增加69.11%;由于后者影响占主导地位,在2种因素综合影响下,南荻-芦苇群落向低滩地蔓延的同时呈现了扩张的趋势,面积增加42.53%.进一步发现,若滩地地形变化或人工建筑位于淹没频率在5%~25%区间带内,则水文变化、地形变化2种因素会对南荻-芦苇群落生境产生迭加影响,这种迭加影响甚至会大于单因素影响之和.研究表明岸滩开发等人为干扰导致滨岸滩地改变时,可能会影响滩上植被生长条件,这值得有关部门进行岸线规划、利用和进行生态保护时重点关注. 相似文献
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针对目前研究蒸散发时间尺度转换方面的不足,构建了月蒸散发时间尺度转换模型,对淮河史灌河流域黄泥庄小流域1982-1987年月蒸散发能力进行逐栅格解集,并与改进后的AFFDEF分布式水文模型耦合进行日径流过程模拟.结果显示:解集产生的日蒸散发能力随时间在平均值附近波动变化,能很好地体现日蒸发量的时间变异特点;模拟的日径流过程的精度较高,平均Nash效率系数在80%以上,径流深相对误差都在10%以内,平均泊松相关系数为0.912,模拟流量过程曲线与实测值匹配的较好;经与采用平均解集模式的模拟结果对比发现,耦合蒸散发时间尺度转换模型后的模拟精度与前者大体相当,部分指标略优于前者.蒸散发时间尺度转换模型解集产生的日蒸散发量序列能够反映日蒸发量的时间变异特点,更能满足区域日降雨径流过程模拟的需要,可为解决资料匮乏区域水文模拟提供一个新途径. 相似文献
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水体的透明度是评价水质的重要指标,在水生态系统中起着重要的作用.借助遥感技术可以获得大范围、实时数据,并且有节省人力物力的优点.本文利用岱海的野外实测透明度数据和光谱数据,针对Sentinel-2 MSI和Landsat-8 OLI卫星数据波段设置,建立了岱海水体透明度反演模型.结果表明：1）本文建立的透明度反演模型中,蓝红波段比二次模型反演精度最好,决定系数R2=0.66,均方根误差（RMSE）为24.02 cm,平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）为21.24%.2）将蓝红波段比二次模型应用于Landsat-8 OLI和Sentinel-2 MSI卫星数据,透明度反演精度较好,MAPE<28.82%,RMSE<23.26 cm,R2>0.60.3）此算法应用于时间序列MSI和OLI影像,得到了岱海水体透明度时空分布特征.结果表明,岱海水体透明度年平均变化范围在90.71~120.77 cm,2015年的平均透明度最高,2013年的平均透明度最低;月平均变化范围在90.68~122.53 cm,7月的平均透明度最高,5月的平均透明度最低.岱海透明度在空间上的分布趋势大致表现为西北高,东南低,中部高,四周低.4）影响岱海水体透明度变化的主要因素为风速和降水,透明度与风速和降水分别具有显著的负相关和正相关关系. 相似文献
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为了探讨水文模型在不同水文数据同化方案下的径流模拟差异,本文采用集合卡尔曼滤波算法,以遥感蒸散发产品、实测径流为观测数据,构建了基于新安江模型的数据同化框架。基于此框架设计了4种不同同化方案(DA-ET、DAET(K)、DA-ET-Q、DA-ET-Q(K))以及1种对照方案OL,以赣江流域开展实例研究,评估了水文数据同化中遥感蒸散发产品的时间分辨率、模型蒸散发相关参数时变与否以及多源数据同化对径流模拟的影响。结果表明:在DA-ET方案下,同化两种不同时间分辨率的蒸散发产品均能提高模型整体的径流模拟精度,且时间分辨率更高的产品的同化效果更好;在DA-ET方案的基础上,考虑加入实测径流进行同化能够提升模型径流模拟精度,且DA-ET(K)与DA-ET-Q(K)方案所得径流相对误差的减幅均超过了20%,说明在蒸散发同化过程中同时考虑蒸散发参数动态变化的结果更优;相较于OL方案,4种同化方案均能不同程度地提高模型对径流高水部分的模拟能力,但DA-ET-Q(K)方案表现最差,而其余方案差异并不显著。本研究有助于进一步了解不同数据同化方案在径流模拟中的差异,从而为水资源高效利用与科学管理提供科学依据... 相似文献
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《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations. 相似文献
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基于改进型SIMTOP参数化径流方案和新安江模型的三层土壤水量平衡计算方法,本文构建了一个输入数据和率定参数较少、同时具有地形指数尺度转换机制、较好描述二维水文过程的简单高效的大尺度水文模型TOPX,并将其与区域环境系统集成模式RIEMS紧密耦合,以增强区域气候模式对大尺度流域径流量的定量数值模拟能力．TOPX模型在酉水河流域和泾河流域的离线测试表明：该模型对小尺度流域的径流量模拟精度较高,能够较好地描述流域水文变化过程;同时,该模型在大尺度上具有较强的分布式模拟能力,能够捕捉陆面水文过程的主要特征和时空演变特点．TOPX与RIEMS的耦合模式在泾河流域进行了在线测试,借助TOPX模型中的地形指数降尺度转换和水文过程产汇流机制,耦合模式实现了利用区域气候模式模拟的气象资料来驱动水文模型进行大尺度流域日径流量的模拟．进一步分析还表明：区域气候模式RIEMS模拟的降水时空分布数据的精度是影响耦合模式对径流量模拟效果的关键因素． 相似文献
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AbstractThe accurate prediction of hourly runoff discharge in a watershed during heavy rainfall events is of critical importance for flood control and management. This study predicts n-h-ahead runoff discharge in the Sandimen basin in southern Taiwan using a novel hybrid approach which combines a physically-based model (HEC-HMS) with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Hourly runoff discharge data (1200 datasets) from seven heavy rainfall events were collected for the model calibration (training) and validation. Six statistical indicators (i.e. mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, error of time to peak discharge, error of peak discharge and coefficient of efficiency) were employed to evaluate the performance. In comparison with the HEC-HMS model, the single ANN model, and the time series forecasting (ARMAX) model, the developed hybrid HEC-HMS–ANN model demonstrates improved accuracy in recursive n-h-ahead runoff discharge prediction, especially for peak flow discharge and time. 相似文献
14.
T. Liu P. Willems X. W. Feng Q. Li Y. Huang An. M. Bao X. Chen F. Veroustraete Q. H. Dong 《水文研究》2012,26(3):335-344
The ecological situation of the Tarim River basin in China seriously declined since the early 1950s, mainly due to a strong increase in water abstraction for irrigation purposes. To restore the ecological system and support sustainable development of the Tarim River basin region in China, more hydrological studies are demanded to properly understand the processes of the watershed and efficiently manage the water resources. Such studies are, however, complicated due to the limited data availability, especially in the mountainous headwater regions of the Tarim River basin. This study investigated the usefulness of remote sensing (RS) data to overcome that lack of data in the spatially distributed hydrological modelling of the basin. Complementary to the conventional station‐based (SB) data, the RS products that are directly used in this study include precipitation, evapotranspiration and leaf area index. They are derived from raw image data of the Chinese Fengyun meteorological satellite and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The MODIS land surface temperature was used to calculate the atmospheric temperature lapse rate to describe the temperature dependency on topographical variations. Moreover, MODIS‐based snow cover images were used to obtain model initial conditions and as validation reference for the snow model component. Comparison of model results based on RS input versus conventional SB input exhibited similar results in terms of high and low river runoff extremes, cumulative runoff volumes in both runoff and snow melting seasons and spatial and temporal variability of snow cover. During summer time, when the snow cover shrinks in the permanent glacier region, it was found that the model resolution influences the model results dramatically, hence, showing the importance of detailed (RS based) spatially distributed input data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Homa Razmkhah 《Water Resources》2018,45(1):34-49
Conceptual hydrological models are popular tools for simulating land phase of hydrological cycle. Uncertainty arises from a variety of sources such as input error, calibration and parameters. Hydrologic modeling researches indicate that parametric uncertainty has been considered as one of the most important source. The objective of this study was to evaluate parameter uncertainty and its propagation in rainfall-runoff modeling. This study tried to model daily flows and calculate uncertainty bounds for Karoon-III basin, Southwest of Iran, using HEC-HMS (SMA). The parameters were represented by probability distribution functions (PDF), and the effect on simulated runoff was investigated using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) on Monte Carlo (MC). Three chosen parameters, based on sensitivity analysis, were saturated-hydraulic-conductivity (Ks), Clark storage coefficient (R) and time of concentration (t c ). Uncertainty associated with parameters were accounted for, by representing each with a probability distribution. Uncertainty bounds was calculated, using parameter sets captured from LHS on parameters PDF of sub-basins and propagating to the model. Results showed that maximum reliability (11%) resulted from Ks propagating. For three parameters, underestimation was more than overestimation. Maximum sharpness and standard deviation (STD) was resulted from propagating Ks. Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of flow and uncertainty bounds showed that as flow increased, the width of uncertainty bounds increased for all parameters. 相似文献
16.
Changes in climate and land use can significantly influence the hydrological cycle and hence affect water resources. Understanding the impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow can facilitate development of sustainable water resources strategies. This study investigates the flow variation of the Zamu River, an inland river in the arid area of northwest China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool distributed hydrological model. Three different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios were considered on the basis of measured climate data and land‐use cover, and then these data were input into the hydrological model. Based on the sensitivity analysis, model calibration and verification, the hydrological response to different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios was simulated. The results indicate that the runoff varied with different land‐use type, and the runoff of the mountain reaches of the catchment increased when grassland area increased and forestland decreased. The simulated runoff increased with increased precipitation, but the mean temperature increase decreased the runoff under the same precipitation condition. Application of grey correlation analysis showed that precipitation and temperature play a critical role in the runoff of the Zamu River basin. Sensitivity analysis of runoff to precipitation and temperature by considering the 1990s land use and climate conditions was also undertaken. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Research on runoff forecast approaches to the Aksu River basin 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ouyang RuLin Cheng WeiMing Wang WeiSheng Jiang Yan Zhang YiChi Wang YongQin 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(1):16-25
The Aksu River (the international river between China and Kirghiz) has become the main water source for the Tarim River. It significantly influences the Tarim River’s formation, development and evolution. Along with the western region development strategy and the Tarim River basin comprehensive development and implementation, the research is now focused on the Aksu River basin hydrologic characteristic and hydrologic forecast. Moreover, the Aksu River is representative of rivers supplied with glacier and snow melt in middle-high altitude arid district. As a result, the research on predicting the river flow of the Aksu River basin has theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, considering the limited hydrometeorological data for the Aksu River basin, we have constructed four hydrologic forecast approaches using the daily scale to simulate and forecast daily runoff of two big branches of the Aksu River basin. The four approaches are the upper air temperature and the daily runoff correlation method, AR(p) runoff forecast model, temperature and precipitation revised AR(p) model and the NAM rainfall-runoff model. After comparatively analyzing the simulation results of the four approaches, we discovered that the temperature and precipitation revised AR(p) model, which needs less hydrological and meteorological data and is more predictive, is suitable for the short-term runoff forecast of the Aksu River basin. This research not only offers a foundation for the Aksu River and Tarim Rivers’ hydrologic forecast, flood prevention, control and the entire basin water collocation, but also provides the hydrologic forecast reference approach for other arid ungauged basins. 相似文献
19.
OUYANG RuLin CHENG WeiMing WANG WeiSheng JIANG Yan ZHANG YiChi WANG YongQin 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(Z1):16-25
The Aksu River (the international river between China and Kirghiz) has become the main water source for the Tarim River. It significantly influences the Tarim River's formation, development and evolution. Along with the western region development strategy and the Tarim River basin comprehensive devel-opment and implementation, the research is now focused on the Aksu River basin hydrologic charac-teristic and hydrologic forecast. Moreover, the Aksu River is representative of rivers supplied with gla-cier and snow melt in middle-high altitude arid district. As a result, the research on predicting the river flow of the Aksu River basin has theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, considering the limited hydrometeorological data for the Aksu River basin, we have constructed four hydrologic forecast approaches using the daily scale to simulate and forecast daily runoff of two big branches of the Aksu River basin. The four approaches are the upper air temperature and the daily runoff correlation method, AR(p) runoff forecast model, temperature and precipitation revised AR(p) model and the NAM rainfall-runoff model. After comparatively analyzing the simulation results of the four approaches, we discovered that the temperature and precipitation revised AR(p) model, which needs less hydrological and meteorological data and is more predictive, is suitable for the short-term runoff forecast of the Aksu River basin. This research not only offers a foundation for the Aksu River and Tarim Rivers' hydrologic forecast, flood prevention, control and the entire basin water collocation, but also provides the hydrologic forecast reference approach for other arid ungauged basins. 相似文献