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1.
Thach Ngoc Nguyen Canh Xuan Pham Huy Quoc Nguyen Toan Ngo Bao Dang 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2019,40(2):312-333
Hoang Su Phi is a mountainous district in Ha Giang province, Vietnam. When the rainy season arrives in these parts, flash floods (besides landslides), frequently occur in many areas, seriously affecting the socio‐economic condition of the district. Therefore, in this paper, we have developed an early warning system for flash floods, established based on a geomorphological and hydrological approach. The basic principle underlying this system is the fact that flash floods will often occur where there is high potential risk with sufficient rainfall. In the model, eight parameters of the basin were used to build a potential flash flood map. Using the spatial processing module in an open source software, early predictions from automatic weather stations were interpolated and processed online to produce a potential risk map. Depending on the threshold of precipitation values, the results determined locations where flash flood may occur at various flash flood risk indices (FFRI). The system may be applied to support provision of early flash flood warning up to 1?6 days in advance in the district, allowing the local government ample time to make appropriate decisions on the prevention and/or mitigation of damages caused by flash flood hazards. 相似文献
2.
西南地区山洪灾害时空分布特征及其影响因素 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7
山洪灾害时空特征和影响因素是山洪评估与管理的重要内容。根据1960-2015年中国西南地区历史山洪资料,采用线性回归、标准差椭圆、空间自相关和Logistic回归模型,深入分析了西南地区山洪灾害时空分布特征及其影响因素。结果表明：① 西南地区年度山洪灾害频次呈指数增长,年际变化呈现出稳定（1960-1980年）、缓慢波动增加（1981-1998年）、快速增加（1999-2015年）3个阶段;月际特征明显,山洪主要发生在每年6-8月,尤以7月频次最高;② 西南地区山洪灾害空间差异性显著,灾害高密度区主要集中于滇中高原地区、四川盆地和周边山地单元,山洪灾害数量分布呈显著的空间正相关,空间集聚特征明显（Moran's I指数为0.127、Z = 5.784、P = 0.007）;③ 西南地区历史灾害点的重心在年内存在明显的向正西方向移动的趋势,年内标准差椭圆转角均逐渐弱化,长轴逐渐变长,短轴逐渐变短;④ 降雨因子对山洪的影响度最高,人类活动因子次之,地表环境因子最低,降雨因子中1 h降雨量对山洪的影响最强,优势比值达到3.654。研究结果可为西南地区山洪灾害形成机理、监测预警研究,实施防灾减灾措施等提供科技支撑。 相似文献
3.
The localized rain rate maxima (RM) of the inner core region of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated using Version 6 of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis data-set from 1998 to 2010. Specifically, this study examines the probabilities of RM exceeding 25 mm h?1 (P25) in intense TCs. The 25 mm h?1 RM is the 90th percentile of all RM observations during the study period. The descending order of P25 observed from intense TCs for the six major ocean basins is: the North Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, and the East-central Pacific Ocean. The six major basins have been subdivided into 29 sub-basins to discern regional variability of RM. P25 increases with increasing TC category in all major basins, except for the South Pacific. Sub-basins with intense TCs that produce extreme rainfall rate maxima include the Bay of Bengal, the South Philippine Sea, the East China Sea, the north coast of Australia, southeast Melanesia, and the Northwest Atlantic. Sub-basins with a higher proportion of category 5 (CAT5) observations than category 3 (CAT3) observations tend to have a greater P25 beyond 60 km from the storm center. 相似文献
4.
暴雨山洪灾害预警是中小流域山洪灾害防控体系的薄弱环节,也是决定山洪灾害防控成败的关键。论文围绕山洪灾害预警的核心问题,从中国山洪灾害区域差异特征、山洪灾害预警技术方法、山洪灾害概率预警现状3个方面进行了综述。中国山洪灾害分布存在明显的时空差异,因此有必要根据山洪灾害的区域差异发展有针对性的预警方法。以临界雨量为指标的雨量预警是目前中国中小流域暴雨山洪灾害预警的主要技术手段,但常规方法仅给出一个(组)确定的临界雨量阈值,导致预警结果存在突出的不确定性问题。概率预警可以定量评估诸多不确定性,给出山洪灾害概率预警结果,因此具备很好的理论优势与潜在应用价值。论文展望了山洪灾害概率预警未来的研究重点与方向：(1)充分挖掘暴雨洪水样本信息,开展山洪灾害概率预警基础方法与技术集成研究;(2)加强非平稳性条件下的临界雨量阈值估算与山洪灾害概率预警研究;(3)综合考虑预警阈值发生概率及其致灾概率,优化“多级预警、多级响应”技术方法,推进山洪灾害综合预警业务系统建设与应用。 相似文献
5.
Mohammad Abdul Quader Hemal Dey Md. Abdul Malak Md. Zakiur Rahman 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2023,44(2):277-299
Floods are a frequently occurring calamity in deltaic Bangladesh. This paper aims to assess the temporal expansion of waterbodies during flooding using geospatial techniques. Several water indices were applied to classify the satellite images at various temporal scales. Among them, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) showed the highest correlation (r = 0.831; where p = 0.01) with rainfall data. Specifically, the NDWI results showed that perennial waterbodies measured 37 km2 and 60 km2 in Sunamganj District in 2017 and 2019, respectively. The area of waterbodies notably increased 52-fold from March to April (37 km2 to 1958 km2) during the pre-monsoon flash flood of 2017. During the July 2019 monsoon flood, waterbodies started to extend after May and flooded 2784 km2 in area. NDVI analysis showed that in 2019, floodwater submerged 361.7 km2 of vegetation cover. At the same time, the Surma River's flooding resulted in a 73.9 per cent inundation of the total area of the Sunamganj District. We hope that this study will provide better understanding of the varying nature of floods that occur in the low lying bowl shaped Haor region which will in turn assist the government with flood mitigation. 相似文献
6.
突发性洪水是干旱区河流重要的水文事件，塔里木河流域突发性洪水主要包括暴雨突发性洪水和冰川湖崩决洪水，本文例举了发生在上游支流的两种类型突发性洪水，对其发生、发展进行了比较分析，同时，分析了不同类型不同支流发生的突发性洪水对干流的影响。 相似文献
7.
The southern part of France near the Mediterranean Sea is subject to flash floods generated by heavy rainfalls typical of the Mediterranean climate. In November 1999 (the 12th and 13th) and in September 2002 (the 8th and 9th), 5000 km2 were touched by rainfalls superior to 200 mm in the departments of Aude and Gard. In both cases, maximum precipitation exceeded 500 mm within 24 h. The damage amounted in the hundreds of millions of euros, and there were numerous fatalities: 35 in 1999, and 23 in 2002. Following a survey of available data, this article details the cost of the damage for both flash flood events. The distribution of the damage is quantified by sector of activity (e.g., industry, agriculture). The average ratio “euros of loss per inhabitant” is quite similar in both cases, but this average hides some geographical discrepancies. Losses in industry can locally worsen the overall toll. The mapping of damage on a local scale and the amount of losses per inhabitant demonstrate that rural areas underwent heavy losses. This was mostly due to the destruction of the public infrastructures (e.g., roads, bridges) that represented more than half of the overall loss. In some rural areas, the cost of flash floods can exceed 15,000 euros per inhabitant. Such flood prevention issues as flood warning systems and land use planning must not focus only on the cities. Death, injury and heavy material losses also disadvantage the rural and mountainous areas where populations and activities are concentrated near rivers. 相似文献
8.
Floodplains contain valuable stratigraphic records of past floods, but these records do not always represent flood magnitudes in a straightforward manner. The depositional record generally reflects the magnitude, frequency, and duration of floods, but is also subject to storm-scale hysteresis effects, flood sequencing effects, and decade-scale trends in sediment load. Many of these effects are evident in the recent stratigraphic record of overbank floods along the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), where the floodplain has been aggrading for several thousand years. On low-lying floodplain surfaces in Iowa and Wisconsin, 137Cs profiles suggest average vertical accretion rates of about 10 mm/year since 1954. These rates are slightly less than rates that prevailed earlier in the 20th Century, when agricultural land disturbance was at a maximum, but they are still an order of magnitude greater than long-term average rates for the Holocene. As a result of soil conservation practices, accretion rates have decreased in recent decades despite an increase in the frequency of large floods.The stratigraphic record of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain is dominated by spring snowmelt events, because they are twice as frequent as rainfall floods, last almost twice as long, and are sometimes associated with very high sediment concentrations. The availability of sediment during floods is also influenced by a strong hysteresis effect. Peak sediment concentrations generally precede the peak discharges by 1–4 weeks, and concentrations are usually low (<50 mg/l) during the peak stages of most floods. The lag between peak concentration and peak discharge is especially large during spring floods, when much of the runoff is contributed by snowmelt in the far northern reaches of the valley.The great flood of 1993 on the Mississippi River focused attention on the geomorphic effectiveness and stratigraphic signature of large floods. At McGregor, where the peak discharge had a recurrence interval of 14 years, the flood was most notable for its long duration (168 days above 1600 m3s−1), high sediment concentrations (three episodes >180 mg/l), and large suspended load (1.71 Mt). The flood of 2001, despite its greater magnitude (recurrence interval 70 years), was associated with relatively low sediment concentrations (<60 mg/l). The 1993 and 2001 floods each left 30–80 mm of silty fine sand on most low-lying floodplain surfaces, but the 2001 flood produced sandy levees near the channel while the 1993 flood did not. The stratigraphic signature of these recent floods is more closely related to the duration and total suspended load of the event than to the magnitude of the peak discharge. 相似文献
9.
Late Holocene upper bounds of flood magnitudes and twentieth century large floods in the ungauged, hyperarid alluvial Nahal Arava, Israel 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Yael Jacoby Tamir Grodek Yehouda Enzel Naomi Porat Eric V. McDonald Ofer Dahan 《Geomorphology》2008,95(3-4):274-294
The impact of large twentieth century floods on the riparian vegetation and channel morphology of the relatively wide anabranching and braided Nahal Arava, southern Israel, was documented as part of developing tools to (a) identify recent large floods, (b) determine these flood's respective magnitudes in alluvial ungauged streams, and (c) determine long-term upper bounds to flood stages and magnitudes. Along most of its course Nahal Paran, a major tributary that impacts the morphology, floods and sediments of Nahal Arava at the study reach, is a coarse-gravel, braided ephemeral stream. Downstream of the Arava–Paran confluence, aeolian and fluvial sand delivered from eastern Arava valley alters the channel morphology. The sand has accreted up to 2.5 m above the distinct current channels, facilitating the recording of large floods. This sand enhances the establishment of denser riparian vegetation (mainly Tamarix nilotica and Haloxylon persicum) that interacts with floods and affects stream morphology. A temporal association was found between specific floods recorded upstream and tree-ring ages of re-growth of flood-damaged tamarix trees (‘Sigafoos trees’) in the past 30 years. This association can be utilized for developing a twentieth century flood chronology in hyperarid ungauged basins in the region. The minimum magnitude of the largest flood that covered the entire channel width, estimated from flood deposits, is approximately 1700–1800 m3s− 1. This is a larger magnitude than the largest gauged flood of 1150 m3s− 1 that occurred in 1970 about 30 km upstream in Nahal Paran. Our estimation agrees with flood magnitude estimated from the regional envelope curve of the largest floods. Based on Holocene alluvial stratigraphy and OSL dating in the study reach we also conclude that flood stages did not reach the late Holocene ( 2.2 ka) surface and therefore we estimate a non-exceedance upper bound of 2000 m3s− 1 flood magnitudes for Nahal Arava during that interval. This study indicates that in unfavorable areas the combination of hydrology, fluvial morphology and botanic evidence can increase our understanding of ungauged basins and give information crucial for hydrology planning. 相似文献
10.
我国干旱区洪水灾害基本特征：以新疆为例 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
依据新疆自然和社会环境,分析了新疆洪水及其洪灾的形成,季节分布,年际变化,地区分布等主要特征,并提出对洪水灾害的防御对策。 相似文献
11.
山洪是中国主要的自然灾害之一,严重威胁山区人民生命财产与工程建设安全。针对山洪已发展了多种多样的研究手段,但多集中于过去几十年的时间段内。树轮地貌学方法作为研究历史山洪事件的有效手段之一,在世界范围内被广泛应用。利用树轮中的生长干扰信息,可以对山洪事件进行精确定年,重建无记录或少记录地区内山洪发生的频率、大小和空间分布特征等,根据伤疤的高度或应用水力模型则可以定量重建山洪的流量大小。随着树轮地貌学方法和技术的逐渐成熟,研究趋向于探讨山洪的驱动机制、更大空间尺度山洪的规律性等,具有广阔的应用前景,但是基于树轮的山洪研究工作在国内还未见报道。论文对树轮地貌学应用于山洪研究的发展过程进行了系统回顾,对研究进展进行了简要概述,最后讨论该研究领域的潜力及局限性,以期为在国内进一步开展相关工作提供参考信息。 相似文献
12.
The Guil River Valley (Queyras, Southern French Alps) is prone to catastrophic floods, as the long historical archives and Holocene sedimentary records demonstrate. In June 2000, the upper part of this valley was affected by a “30-year” recurrence interval (R.I.) flood. Although of lower magnitude and somewhat different nature from that of 1957 (>100-year R.I. flood), the 2000 event induced serious damage to infrastructure and buildings on the valley floor. Use of methods including high-resolution aerial photography, multi-date mapping, hydraulic calculations and field observations made possible the characterisation of the geomorphic impacts on the Guil River and its tributaries. The total rainfall (260 mm in four days) and maximum hourly intensity (17.3 mm h−1), aggravated by pre-existing saturated soils, explain the immediate response of the fluvial system and the subsequent destabilisation of slopes. Abundant water and sediment supply (landsliding, bank erosion), particularly from small catchment basins cut into slaty, schist bedrock, resulted in destructive pulses of debris flow and hyperconcentrated flows. The specific stream power of the Guil and its tributaries was greater than the critical stream power, thus explaining the abundant sediment transport. The Guil discharge was estimated as 180 m3 s−1 at Aiguilles, compared to the annual mean discharge of 6 m3 s−1 and a June mean discharge of 18 m3 s−1. The impacts on the Guil valley floor (flooding, aggradation, generalised bank erosion and changes in the river pattern) were widespread and locally influenced by variations in the floodplain slope and/or channel geometry. The stream partially reoccupied former channels abandoned or modified in their geometry by various structures built during the last four decades, as exemplified by the Aiguilles case study, where the worst damage took place. A comparative study of the geomorphic consequences of both the 1957 and 2000 floods shows that, despite their poor maintenance, the flood control structures built after the 1957 event were relatively efficient, in contrast to unprotected places. The comparison also demonstrates the role of land-use changes (conversion from traditional agro-pastoral life to a ski/hiking-based economy, construction of various structures) in reducing the Guil channel capacity and, more generally, in increasing the vulnerability of the human installations. The efficiency of the measures taken after the 2000 flood (narrowing and digging out of the channel) is also assessed. Final evaluation suggests that, in such high mountainous environments, there is a need to keep most of the 1957 flooded zone clear of buildings and other structures (aside from the existing villages and structures of particular economic interest), in order to enable the river to migrate freely and to adjust to exceptional hydro-geomorphic conditions without causing major damage. 相似文献
13.
The efficacy of extreme events is directly linked to the flood power and the total energy expended. The geomorphic effectiveness of floods is evaluated in terms of the distribution of stream power per unit boundary area (ω) over time, for three very large floods of the 20th Century in the Indian Peninsula. These floods stand out as outliers when compared with the peak floods per unit drainage area recorded elsewhere in the world. We used flood hydrographs and at-a-station hydraulic geometry equations, computed for the same gauging site or a nearby site, to construct approximately stream-power curves and to estimate the total energy expended by each flood. Critical unit stream power values necessary to entrain cobbles and boulders were estimated on the basis of empirical relationships for coarse sediment transport developed by Williams [Williams, G.P., 1983. Paleohydrological methods and some examples from Swedish fluvial environments. I. Cobble and boulder deposits. Geografiska Annaler 65A, 227–243.] in order to determine the geomorphological effectiveness of the floods. The estimates indicate that the minimum power per unit area values for all three floods were sufficiently high, and stream energy was above the threshold of boulder movement (90 W m− 2) for several tens of hours. The peak unit stream power values and the total energy expended during each flood were in the range of 290–325 W m− 2 and 65–160 × 106 J respectively. The average and peak flood powers were found to be higher or comparable to those estimated for extreme palaeo or modern floods on low-gradient, alluvial rivers. 相似文献
14.
M.J. Machado G. Benito M. Barriendos F.S. Rodrigo 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(12):1244-1253
The semiarid SE fringe of the Iberian Peninsula is considered one of the most sensitive to extreme floods and droughts in the western Mediterranean area. The controlling climatic mechanisms are nevertheless difficult to predict and model. A combined documentary-sedimentary-instrumental 500 years comprehensive register of climatic data (rainfall and flooding) was collated for analysing the decadal to centennial scale hydrological response. Wet years are closely linked to the presence of autumn (SON) positive anomalies (e.g. early 18th century). However, continuous, decadal wet periods seem to correspond in time to both autumn and spring (MAM) positive rainfall anomaly years (e.g. 1570/90, 1830/40, 1870/1900). High frequencies of large floods were registered during the late Medieval Warm Period (AD 950–1200), and during some decades of the Little Ice Age with an average of 0.22 floods/year (1440–1490, 1520–1570, 1600–1740, 1770–1800, 1820–1840, 1870–1900), but flood frequency decreased in the 20th Century (1945–1973; 0.14 floods/year). During wet phases (e.g. late 19th century), large floods occurred during all seasons, whereas a predominantly autumn extreme flooding (>70%) is linked to a rainfall patterns with higher inter-annual variability (e.g. 1945–1973). The recurrence of dry phases is higher since early 17th century, and the frequency of continuous wetter phases lower than the ones with marked annual variability. This results in a trend with less frequent high magnitude catastrophic floods. This study confirms a shift from autumn rainfall maxima towards winter since the early 1990's. The tendency towards longer dry periods and increased inter-annual variability (with 1–3 years maximum wet spells) and a changing seasonal rainfall distribution are thought to be key in modelling projections for this specific arid Mediterranean region. 相似文献
15.
Jie Wang Mingjun Zhang Shengjie Wang Zhengguo Ren Yanjun Che Fang Qiang Deye Qu 《地理学报(英文版)》2016,26(9):1277-1288
On the basis of two gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°, and meteorological station data released by the National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) during 1961–2013, the spatial and temporal variations of total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and snowfall/rainfall ratio (S/R) in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are analyzed using Sen’s slope, the Mann–Kendall mutation test, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and the Morlet wavelet. Total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall generally show statistically significant increasing trends of 0.6 mm·a–1 and 1.3 mm·a–1, respectively, while amount of snowfall and S/R have significant decreasing trends of–0.6 mm·a–1 and–0.5% a–1, respectively. In most regions, due to significant increasing trends in total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall, and significant decreasing trends in amount of snowfall, S/R shows a decreasing trend in the TP. Abrupt changes in total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and S/R are detected for 2005, 2004, 1996 and 1998, respectively. Total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and S/R are concentrated in cycles of approximately 5 years, 10 years, 16 years and 20 years, respectively. The trend magnitudes for total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall all show decreasing-to-increasing trends with elevation, while amount of snowfall and S/R show decreasing trends. 相似文献
16.
The surface water runoff (sheet wash) during simulated heavy rainfall of between 25 and 100 mm/h (rainfall durations of between 1 and 6 hours, on plots of between 2.5 and 3.5 m2) on soils of Pliocene and Quaternary sediments and on cherts from Ordovician sediments in nearly-natural environments was dependent on inclination of slope (32%) and on kinetic energy of rainfall (30%). When using vegetation cover as an additional variable for nearly-natural and human influenced environments, the vegetation cover increases R2 from 0.62 to 0.74. The degree of slope controls between 25 and 30% of topsoil characteristics. The results of model simulations were confirmed during natural heavy rainfalls on different field plots. Because simulated rainfalls were based on recorded intensities and durations, results compared with historic records and estimations imply also that specific intensity of between 25 and 100 mm/h and duration of between 1 and 6 hours are not so important, relative to geomorphic-environmental impact, in flash flood generation in a Mediterranean climate area like the Roussillon area (SE-France).On 26 September 1992 the rainfall intensity of a four-hour heavy rainfall event was to a large extent influenced by the topography of the catchment of River Réart/Canterrane (Roussillon, SE-France), increasing with altitude. As an example of the model application: the flash flood of 26/27 September 1992 was simulated. The peak flash-flood flow at the river mouth of River Réart/Canterrane was 1100 m3/s or 7 (m3/km2)/s. Runoff conditions for the natural or nearly natural catchment would have accounted for 43.6% of this, agricultural impact for 9.1% and building areas and construction sites for 5.5%. A further 41.8% was accounted for by the effects of breaching of stored floodwater. In absence of breaching of stored floodwater, the nearly-natural part of the peak flash-flood flow would have been about 480 m3/s (75%) and the part caused by human influence about 160 m3/s (25%). 相似文献
17.
A detailed analysis is made of the current ideas concerning floods of a special type. We examine short-lasting torrential flash floods, one of the most widespread and hazardous natural phenomena in the world characterized by a high rate of development, and by a short duration. It is established that such floods are in a primitive stage of study, which is testified by the fact that there is no general consensus as to what should be treated as a flash flood. It is pointed out that a special term designating them is also absent in many countries. It is determined that the key formation conditions for flash floods include intense short-lasting cloudbursts, the occurrence of a river basin in mountainous regions and a small drainage area; on this basis, it is suggested that they be termed flash floods. It is shown that such floods are of the most widespread occurrence in the northern hemisphere in regions with a temperate and subtropical climate. We suggest the scheme of natural factors for formation of flash floods and their differences from debris flows and floods of other types. It is determined that the main problems of investigating the formation mechanisms and forecasting the aforementioned floods are associated with the small spatiotemporal scale of these phenomena. 相似文献
18.
天山北坡“96.7”洪水致灾原因分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
１９９６年７月中，下旬，天山北坡发生了特大洪水，其洪峰之高，洪量之大为历史上所罕见，形成了建国以来新疆从未有过的特大洪灾，本文综合实地考察结果，在对洪水特点分析基础上，结合对本次洪水致灾过程的研究，详尽分析了天山北坡“９６．７”洪水致灾原因。 相似文献
19.
Flood seasonality and generating conditions in the Tay catchment, Scotland from 1200 to present 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Lindsey J McEwen 《Area》2006,38(1):47-64
The new maximum recorded river flows in Scotland since 1988 have triggered widespread interest in whether floods are becoming more frequent and in the conditions that generate floods of different magnitudes and frequencies. There are questions about the longer-term variability in flood-generating characteristics, and whether there are past analogues for present hydroclimatic variability. The present paper builds on previous work reconstructing a detailed historic flood chronology for the Tay, the largest catchment in Scotland, and its tributaries over the past 800 years, extending the gauged discharge record (1952 onwards). It categorizes flood-generating factors in the Tay catchment and analyses the hydro-meteorological conditions that have generated extreme and moderate floods over a historical period. This work is placed in a broader literature context of historical 'climaxes of storminess', periods of higher storm frequency, flood patterns observed in Scotland and Europe during the Little Ice Age and longer-term rainfall and temperature patterns. The paper concludes that the variability in flood-generating characteristics is highly dependent on the timescale of observation. Inevitably the relative dominance of winter and early spring flooding can vary from year to year and within specific time-periods, but so can the level of augmentation of the flood series with summer and autumn floods to produce notable 'flood years' and flood clusters. The Tay provides a good 'all-Scotland surrogate' for historical flood patterns, reflecting its gathering areas in eastern and western Scotland. The value of a historical approach to the assessment of flood seasonality and generating characteristics is clearly demonstrated. 相似文献
20.
山洪灾害具有广泛性、突发性、破坏性等特征,开展山洪易发区的社区韧性评估,从而提高灾害应对能力是当前防灾减灾的前沿热点和难点。论文提出了一套多学科的综合方法：① 利用中介效应明晰了山洪视角下社区韧性评价体系各指标间的定量化传递关系;② 构建了基于决策实验室分析和解释结构模型的耦合数学模型,确定社区韧性影响因素的多级递阶解释结构模型,分析社区韧性的差异化影响因素;③ 采用信息扩散方法,定量分析山洪灾害社区韧性的变化趋势并排序。以粤北山洪易发区为例,从城镇、村落、城乡结合部3种类型社区进行灾害韧性分析。结果表明：山洪视角下的社区韧性指标体系是一个多维度多层次的复杂网络系统,包括环境、社会、心理、制度和信息沟通5个方面;不同类型社区灾害韧性的直接影响因素呈差异化特征,而供排水设施建设和洪灾应急演练为社区韧性的根本影响因素,对增强山洪视角下社区韧性发挥本质性作用;由于调研村落多位于山洪频发区,居民防范灾害、减轻灾害影响的意识较强,村落较城镇和城乡结合社区呈现出更高的韧性。研究可为提升粤北山洪易发区社区韧性及社区防灾减灾能力提供科学参考,该综合分析方法亦可为其他类型灾害的精细化防灾减灾提供支持。 相似文献