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统计了1984～1994年6～8月和9～11月驻马店地区农村供电量和降水、温度等气象资料发观:上述两个阶段用电量和温度、降水等气象因子关系密切.温度高、干旱时,用电量大;反之,用电量相对减少.这一关系在6～8月的夏季更明显.气象部门应根据这一关系,建立气象与供电量的预报模式,发布供电量预报,为电业部门提供决策依据. 相似文献
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积雪深度的变化受到多种气象因子共同影响。基于天山积雪雪崩站观测的水文气象资料,通过数理统计、标准化处理、通径分析等方法探索气象因子之间的相互作用对积雪深度变化的影响。研究结果表明:融雪期大气温度、净辐射、相对湿度等6个气象因子对积雪深度变化的影响程度不同,净辐射与积雪深度相关程度最高。气象因子之间有着不同程度的相互联系,相对湿度与降水之间的相关系数高达0.854,相对湿度与降水之间有着密切的联系。直接通径系数反映独立气象因子对积雪深度的直接影响程度,间接通径系数反映独立气象因子在其他气象因子的影响下对积雪深度的间接影响程度。根据积雪深度决定系数绝对值的大小可以得到,对积雪深度变化贡献力由大到小的气象因子依次为:净辐射、地表温度、大气温度、降水、相对湿度、风速;积雪深度的剩余系数为0.353,说明除了本研究的6个气象因子以外还存在着其他影响积雪深度变化的因素。 相似文献
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利用2005--2009年250mx250m的EOS／MODIS卫星资料,对艾比湖湖水进行水体判识与面积计算,得到了逐旬的遥感动态监测数据,与周边气象台站同期气象因子进行了统计分析。结果表明：精河县气象因子变化对艾比湖湖水面积产生的影响较其它气象站点明显;影响艾比湖湖水面积变化的气象因子较多,其中主要有降水、风速和相对湿度影响,而与降水和风速有较好的主成分线性回归关系。 相似文献
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通过对比分析无棣海盐产量和温度、光照、蒸发量等气象因子的年、月际变化特征，发现海盐产量与气象因子的关系密切：与温度、光照、风、蒸发量明显正相关，与降水、相对湿度为负相关；海盐月平均产量与月平均净蒸发量的月分布特征最为接近，7月降水峰值出现后海盐月产量急剧下降，印证了蒸发量与降水是影响海盐年产量最主要的气象因素。高蒸发总量、特别是3—6月的高蒸发量对海盐高年产量的形成非常有利；降水量降水日数、连阴雨日数、暴雨日数及不同的降水性质对海盐年产量也有影响，风暴潮的发生会使当年及次年海盐年产量大幅减少。 相似文献
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扎兰屯地区近30年气象条件变化及与作物产量的关系 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
利用扎兰屯地区1971-2000年的温度和降水资料，分析大于等于0℃、10℃、15℃、20℃活动积温的变化及各界限温度持续期间降水的变化，发现它们都呈上升趋势。用10年直线滑动平均法对扎兰屯地区作物产量资料进行处理，分离出趋势产量和气象产量，计算各气象因子与气象产量的相关系数，分析气象因子对产量的影响。玉米和大豆产量与积温关系较大，积温增加使产量增加；马铃薯和小麦产量则与降水量关系较大，降水增多会使产量降低。 相似文献
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黑潮SSTA与赤道太平洋风场及ENSO关系初探 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
利用NCEP/NCAR的1950—1998年海表温度场和1958—1997年海表风场再分析资料,采用相关、合成等分析方法,研究了黑潮区域SSTA(sea surface temperature anomaly)与太平洋风场的关系。结果表明:从SSTA滞后风场3月起,与其关系密切的经向风关键区位于赤道西太平洋(140~160°E,5°S~5°N),纬向风关键区位于赤道中太平洋(160°E~150°W,5°S~5°N),两者对SSTA的影响均可持续6月左右;纬向风关键区的强度和范围均大于经向风。进一步研究表明,黑潮SS-TA与ENSO事件有着密切的联系:E l N ino(La N ina)事件当年11月—次年12月期间黑潮海温多为正(负)异常。 相似文献
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为适应新一代的通信业务平台的需要，选择了Web浏览器的客户／服务器结构，采有基于Sybase数据库和Web服务器应用程序，利用Delphi编程语言研制开发了全省上行报上行传输时效的实时监控程序，可供所有发报台站通过IE浏览器调用。 相似文献
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北大西洋海表面温度锋与大西洋风暴路径及大气大尺度异常的关系研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
运用NCEP、Had ISST再分析资料,北大西洋涛动(NAO)月指数序列,探讨了海表面温度(SST)锋的时空变化特征,揭示了北大西洋SST锋的主要气候变率及其与北大西洋风暴轴和大气大尺度环流异常的关系。研究表明,剔除季节循环后的SST锋显示其最主要变率为锋区的向南/北摆动,其对应的风暴轴发生相应的西南/东北移动,并同时在北大西洋上空对应一个跨海盆的位势高度负/正异常。这种环流异常可引起高纬度海平面气压(SLP)的反气旋/气旋式环流,这有利于增强海表面风对大洋副极地环流的负/正涡度异常输入,进一步减弱/加强了高纬度上层冷水向SST锋区的输送。北大西洋SST锋的另一主要模态为锋区在南北方向的分支和合并。当SST锋异常在40°N~45°N以单支形式加强时,对流层位势高度场和SLP南北梯度增大,对应NAO正位相,此时风暴轴也为单支型;同时SLP异常场促使冰岛附近具有气旋式风应力异常,亚速尔地区具有反气旋式风应力异常,导致副极地环流和副热带环流均加强,增加高纬度冷水和低纬度暖水在锋区的输入,从而进一步增强40°N~45°N附近的SST锋区。当SST锋异常在40°N~45°N纬带南北发生分支时,风暴轴也同时出现北强南弱的南北分支,此时对应了负位相NAO,来自北南的冷暖水输送减弱,SST锋也发生减弱分支。此外,位于大洋内区的SST锋东端也存在一个偶极子型的模态,尽管其解释方差相对较小,但仍与偏东北的NAO型具有显著相关。谱分析表明,北大西洋SST锋与风暴轴具有1~3年和年代际共振,与中高纬大尺度环流也存在周期1~3年的共变信号,其中准一年共变信号体现了SST锋和NAO之间的对应关系。进一步诊断分析表明,SST锋上空的近表层大气斜压性和经向温度梯度随着SST锋的增强而增强,经向热通量的向北输送导致涡动有效位能的增加;海洋的非绝热加热产生更强的垂直热量通量,这有利于涡动有效位能释放成为涡动动能,从而表现为该区域的风暴轴加强,并进一步影响风暴轴中的天气尺度扰动与下游大尺度环流异常的相互作用过程。 相似文献
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《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):203-215
Abstract The forecast skill of the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) operational global forecast/analysis system is assessed as a function of scale for the traditional forecast variable of 500‐hPa geopotential height using results from January 2002. These results are compared to an earlier analysis of forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) which indicated unexpectedly enhanced skill at high wavenumbers (small scales) especially in the mean forecast component identified with local topographical structures. The global rms error for the CMC forecasts is dominated by the transient component compared to the mean and continues to grow with time during the six days of the forecast. Geographically the transient error grows most rapidly in middle and high latitude regions of large natural variability. The relative error behaves differently and grows most rapidly initially in tropical regions and is inferred to exhibit both climatological and flow‐dependent error growth. In terms of spherical harmonic two‐dimensional wavenumber n, low wavenumber (large scale) 500‐hPa geopotential height structures are dominated by the mean component but beyond wavenumber 10 to 15 the transient component dominates and exhibits an approximately n–5 spectral slope consistent with a quasi‐two dimensional turbulence enstrophy cascading subrange. Error grows slowly for the large scales dominated by mean climatological structures but these are not of interest for daily weather forecasting. Transient error grows rapidly at small scales and penetrates toward larger scales with time in keeping with the expected predictability behaviour. An expression of the form f(n, τ) = 1 – e–τ/τp(n) is fitted to the growth of relative error as a function of wavenumber and forecast range and gives a scale dependent predictability timescale for the transient component that varies as τp ? n?3/2, although the generality of the relationship is not known. The mean component at intermediate/high wavenumbers exhibits an apparent region of enhanced skill in the CMC system apparently connected to the topography. The result supports the possibility that some small‐scale mean flow structures, although containing only a minor amount of variance, are maintained in the face of errors in other scales. The results do not support the level of enhanced skill found in an earlier analysis of ECMWF results suggesting them to be an artefact of the analysis/forecast system in use at the time. 相似文献
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The validity of a common radiometeorological application of Monin-Obukhov (M-O) similarity theory to potential refractivity (), which is a nonlinear combination of and q, is determined by whether the properly nondimensionalized gradient is a universal function of z/L. We develop expressions for the flux of (and its scaling parameter, *) in terms of temperature and moisture fluxes, and an M-O similarity expression for the vertical gradient. Results show that even if and q are accepted as exactly following M-O similarity expressions, when the surface layer is stable, does not obey such an expression. That is, when properly nondimensionalized, the vertical gradient of does not collapse to a single universal function of z/L. The assumption that behaves as a similarity variable is approximately correct for well-mixed surface layers under unstable and near-neutral conditions.The gradient of is an important factor in determining microwave propagation conditions. We demonstrate the error induced in a simple algorithm when is assumed to obey M-O similarity theory. An alternative methodology, consistent with the application of similarity theory to and q, is then developed without requiring that itself satisfy similarity theory. 相似文献
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Rice paddies as a methane source 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
Rice fields are considered to be among the highest sources of atmospheric methane, an important source of global warming. In order to meet the projected rice needs of the increasing world population, it is estimated that the annual world's rough rice production must increase to 760 million tons (a 65% increase) in the next 30 years. This will increase methane emissions from ricefields if current technologies are kept. Methane emissions from ricefields are affected by climate, water regime, soil properties, and various cultural practices like irrigation and drainage, organic amendments, fertilization, and rice cultivars. Irrigated rice comprises 50% of the world-harvested rice area and contributes 70% to total rice production. Because of assured flooding during the growing period it is the primary source of methane. Rainfed rice emits less methane due to periods of droughts. Upland rice, being never flooded for a significant period of time, is not a significant source of methane. There is great potential to develop no regret mitigation options that are in accordance with increasing rice production. 相似文献
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Max H. Bazerman 《Climatic change》2006,77(1-2):179-193
In this article, I analyze climate change as a “predictable surprise,” an event that leads an organization or nation to react with surprise, despite the fact that the information necessary to anticipate the event and its consequences was available (Bazerman and Watkins, 2004). I then assess the cognitive, organizational, and political reasons why society fails to implement wise strategies to prevent predictable surprises generally and climate change specifically. Finally, I conclude with an outline of a set of response strategies to overcome barriers to change.This paper has benefitted from the excellent input from Alex Todorov, Michael Oppenheimer, and three anonymous reviewers. 相似文献
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青藏高原对流层顶高度与臭氧总量及上升运动的耦合关系 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
根据1979-2008年青藏高原地区14个探空站对流层项气压资料以及同期各标准等压面上的温度资料,分析了不同季节高原上空两类对流层顶高度与高空各层温度之间的关系;在此基础上,结合同期的NCEP／NCAR月平均再分析资料以及NASA提供的TOMS／SBUV月平均臭氧总量资料,分别讨论了高原上升运动以及高原臭氧总量与对流层顸高度的耦合关系。结果表明：高原第一（二）对流层顶高度全年处在300～200hPa（100hPa附近）高度,在季节变化、年际变化以及长期变化趋势上,两类对流层顸高度与各自对应高度层上的温度存在着密切的反相变化关系,当对流层顶高度偏高（低）时,相应高度上的温度偏低（高）。上升运动有助于两类对流层顶高度的抬升,尤其是当高空200（100）hPa附近有上升运动时,有利于第一（二）对流层项高度抬升。各季节高原臭氧总量与第二对流层顶高度均呈显著的负相关关系,当臭氧含量减少（增加）时,该对流层顶高度将偏高（偏低）,近年来伴随着高原臭氧总量的减少,高原第二对流层顸高度出现了明显的抬升。 相似文献