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1.
Comets in the near-Earth object population 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Francesca DeMeo 《Icarus》2008,194(2):436-449
Because the lifespan of near-Earth objects (NEOs) is shorter than the age of the Solar System, these objects originate elsewhere. Their most likely sources are the main asteroid belt and comets. Through physical observations we seek to identify potential dormant or extinct comets among “asteroids” catalogued as NEOs and thereby determine the fraction of “comet candidates” within the total NEO population. Both discovery statistics and dynamical models indicate that candidate cometary objects in near-Earth space are predominantly found among those having a jovian Tisserand parameter Tj<3. Therefore, we seek to identify comet candidates among asteroid-like NEOs using three criteria: Tj<3, spectral parameters (C, D, T, or P taxonomic types), and/or low (<0.075) albedos. We present new observations for 20 NEOs having Tj<3, consisting of visible spectra, near-infrared spectra, and/or albedo measurements obtained using the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility, the Kitt Peak National Observatory 4 m, and the Magellan Observatory 6.5-m. Four of our “asteroid” targets have been subsequently confirmed as low activity comets. Thus our sample includes spectra of the nuclei of Comets 2002 EX12 = 169P (NEAT), 2001 WF2 = 182P (LONEOS), 2003 WY25 = D/1891 W1 (Blanplain), and Halley Family Comet 2006 HR30 = P/2006 HR30 (Siding Spring). From the available literature, we tabulate physical properties for 55 NEOs having Tj<3, and after accounting for possible bias effects, we estimate that 54±10% of NEOs in Tj<3 orbits have “comet-like” spectra or albedos. Bias corrected discovery statistics [Stuart, J.S., Binzel, R.P., 2004. Icarus 170, 295-311] estimate 30±5% of the entire NEO population resides in orbits having Tj<3. Combining these two factors suggests that 16±5% of the total discovered “asteroid-like” NEO population has “comet-like” dynamical and physical properties. Outer main-belt asteroids typically have similar taxonomic and albedo properties as our “comet candidates.” Using the model of Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.M., Levison, H., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] to evaluate source region probabilities, we conclude that 8±5% of the total asteroid-like NEO population have the requisite orbital properties, physical properties, and dynamical likelihood to have originated as comets from the outer Solar System. 相似文献
2.
A recently published model of the Near Earth Object (NEO) orbital-magnitude distribution (Bottke et al., 2002, Icarus156, 399-433.) relies on five intermediate sources for the NEO population: the ν6 resonance, the 3:1 resonance, the outer portion of the main belt (i.e., 2.8-3.5 AU), the Mars-crossing population adjacent to the main belt, and the Jupiter family comet population. The model establishes the relative contribution of these sources to the NEO population. By computing the albedo distribution of the bodies in and/or near each of the five sources, we can deduce the albedo distribution of the NEO population as a function of semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination. A problem with this strategy, however, is that we do not know a priori the albedo distribution of main belt asteroids over the same size range as observed NEOs (diameter D<10 km). To overcome this problem, we determined the albedo distribution of large asteroids in and/or near each NEO source region and used these results to deduce the albedo distribution of smaller asteroids in the same regions. This method requires that we make some assumptions about the absolute magnitude distributions of both asteroid families and background asteroids. Our solution was to extrapolate the observed absolute magnitude distributions of the families up to some threshold value Hthr, beyond which we assumed that the families' absolute magnitude distributions were background-like.We found that Hthr=14.5 provides the best match to the color vs heliocentric distance distribution observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. With this value of Hthr our model predicts that the debiased ratio between dark and bright (albedo smaller or larger than 0.089) objects in any absolute-magnitude-limited sample of the NEO population is 0.25±0.02. Once the observational biases are properly taken into account, this agrees very well with the observed C/S ratio (0.165 for H<20). The dark/bright ratio of NEOs increases to 0.87±0.05 if a size-limited sample is considered. We estimate that the total number of NEOs larger than a kilometer is 855±110, which, compared to the total number of NEOs with H<18 (963±120), shows that the usually assumed conversion H=18?D=1 km slightly overestimates the number of kilometer-size objects.Combining our orbital distribution model with the new albedo distribution model, and assuming that the density of bright and dark bodies is 2.7 and 1.3 g/cm3, respectively, we estimate that the Earth should undergo a 1000 megaton collision every 63,000±8000 years. On average, the bodies capable of producing 1000 megaton of impact energy are those with H<20.6. The NEOs discovered so far carry only 18±2% of this collision probability. 相似文献
3.
We analyze the dynamical evolution of Jupiter-family (JF) comets and near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) with aphelion distances Q>3.5 AU, paying special attention to the problem of mixing of both populations, such that inactive comets may be disguised as NEAs. From numerical integrations for 2×106 years we find that the half lifetime (where the lifetime is defined against hyperbolic ejection or collision with the Sun or the planets) of near-Earth JF comets (perihelion distances q<1.3 AU) is about 1.5×105 years but that they spend only a small fraction of this time (∼ a few 103 years) with q<1.3 AU. From numerical integrations for 5×106 years we find that the half lifetime of NEAs in “cometary” orbits (defined as those with aphelion distances Q>4.5 AU, i.e., that approach or cross Jupiter's orbit) is 4.2×105 years, i.e., about three times longer than that for near-Earth JF comets. We also analyze the problem of decoupling JF comets from Jupiter to produce Encke-type comets. To this end we simulate the dynamical evolution of the sample of observed JF comets with the inclusion of nongravitational forces. While decoupling occurs very seldom when a purely gravitational motion is considered, the action of nongravitational forces (as strong as or greater than those acting on Encke) can produce a few Enckes. Furthermore, a few JF comets are transferred to low-eccentricity orbits entirely within the main asteroid belt (Q<4 AU and q>2 AU). The population of NEAs in cometary orbits is found to be adequately replenished with NEAs of smaller Q's diffusing outward, from which we can set an upper limit of ∼20% for the putative component of deactivated JF comets needed to maintain such a population in steady state. From this analysis, the upper limit for the average time that a JF comet in near-Earth orbit can spend as a dormant, asteroid-looking body can be estimated to be about 40% of the time spent as an active comet. More likely, JF comets in near-Earth orbits will disintegrate once (or shortly after) they end their active phases. 相似文献
4.
We study the population of faint Jupiter family comets (JFCs) that approach the Earth (perihelion distances q<1.3 AU) by applying a debiasing technique to the observed sample. We found for the debiased cumulative luminosity function (CLF) of absolute total magnitudes H10 a bimodal distribution in which brighter comets (H10?9) follow a linear relation with a steep slope α=0.65±0.14, while fainter comets follow a much shallower slope α=0.25±0.06 down to H10∼18. The slope can be pushed up to α=0.35±0.09 if a second break in the H10 distribution to a much shallower slope is introduced at H10∼16. We estimate a population of about 103 faint JFCs with q<1.3 AU and 10<H10<15 (radii ∼0.1-0.5 km). The shallowness of the CLF for faint near-Earth JFCs may be explained either as: (i) the source population (the scattered disk) has an equally very shallow distribution in the considered size range, or (ii) the distribution is flattened by the disintegration of small objects before that they have a chance of being observed. The fact that the slope of the magnitude distribution of the faint active JFCs is very similar to that found for a sample of dormant JFCs candidates suggests that for a surviving (i.e., not disintegrated) object, the probability of becoming dormant versus keeping some activity is roughly size independent. 相似文献
5.
We present the results of BVRIZ photometry of 56 near-Earth objects (NEOs) obtained with the 1-m Jacobus Kapteyn telescope on La Palma during 2000 and 2001. Our sample includes many NEOs with particularly deep 1-μm pyroxene/olivine absorption bands, similar to Q-type asteroids. We also classify three NEOs with particularly blue colors. No D-type asteroids were found, placing an upper limit of ∼2% on the fraction of the NEO population originating in the outer main belt or the Trojan clouds. The ratio of dark to bright objects in our sample was found to be 0.40, significantly higher than current theoretical predictions. As well as classifying the NEOs, we have investigated color trends with size and orbit. We see a general trend for larger silicate objects to have shallower absorption bands but find no significant difference in the distribution of taxonomic classes at small and large sizes. Our data clearly show that different taxonomic classes tend to occupy different regions of (a, e) space. By comparing our data with current model predictions for NEO dynamical evolution we see that Q-, R-, and V-type NEOs tend to have orbits associated with “fast track” delivery from the main belt, whereas S-type NEOs tend to have orbits associated with “slow track” delivery. This outcome would be expected if space weathering occurs on time scales of >106 years. 相似文献
6.
V-type asteroids are bodies whose surfaces are constituted of basalt. In the Main Asteroid Belt, most of these asteroids are assumed to come from the basaltic crust of Asteroid (4) Vesta. This idea is mainly supported by (i) the fact that almost all the known V-type asteroids are in the same region of the belt as (4) Vesta, i.e., the inner belt (semi-major axis 2.1<a<2.5 AU), (ii) the existence of a dynamical asteroid family associated to (4) Vesta, and (iii) the observational evidence of at least one large craterization event on Vesta's surface. One V-type asteroid that is difficult to fit in this scenario is (1459) Magnya, located in the outer asteroid belt, i.e., too far away from (4) Vesta as to have a real possibility of coming from it. The recent discovery of the first V-type asteroid in the middle belt (2.5<a<2.8 AU), (21238) 1995WV7 [Binzel, R.P., Masi, G., Foglia, S., 2006. Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 38, 627; Hammergren, M., Gyuk, G., Puckett, A., 2006. ArXiv e-print, astro-ph/0609420], located at ∼2.54 AU, raises the question of whether it came from (4) Vesta or not. In this paper, we present spectroscopic observations indicating the existence of another V-type asteroid at ∼2.53 AU, (40521) 1999RL95, and we investigate the possibility that these two asteroids evolved from the Vesta family to their present orbits by a semi-major axis drift due to the Yarkovsky effect. The main problem with this scenario is that the asteroids need to cross the 3/1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, which is highly unstable. Combining N-body numerical simulations of the orbital evolution, that include the Yarkovsky effect, with Monte Carlo models, we compute the probability that an asteroid of a given diameter D evolves from the Vesta family and crosses over the 3/1 resonance, reaching a stable orbit in the middle belt. Our results indicate that an asteroid like (21238) 1995WV7 has a low probability (∼1%) of having evolved through this mechanism due to its large size (D∼5 km), because the Yarkovsky effect is not sufficiently efficient for such large asteroids. However, the mechanism might explain the orbits of smaller bodies like (40521) 1999RL95 (D∼3 km) with ∼70-100% probability, provided that we assume that the Vesta family formed ?3.5 Gy ago. We estimate the debiased population of V-type asteroids that might exist in the same region as (21238) and (40521) (2.5<a?2.62 AU) and conclude that about 10 to 30% of the V-type bodies with D>1 km may come from the Vesta family by crossing over the 3/1 resonance. The remaining 70-90% must have a different origin. 相似文献
7.
The near-Earth objects and their potential threat to our planet 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The near-Earth object (NEO) population includes both asteroids (NEAs) and comet nuclei (NECs) whose orbits have perihelion distances q<1.3 AU and which can approach or cross that of the Earth. A NEA is defined as a “potentially hazardous asteroid” (PHA) for Earth when its minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) comes inside 0.05 AU and it has an absolute magnitude H<22 mag (i.e. mean diameter > 140 m). These are big enough to cause, in the case of impact with Earth, destructive effects on a regional scale. Smaller objects can still produce major damage on a local scale, while the largest NEOs could endanger the survival of living species. Therefore, several national and international observational efforts have been started (i) to detect undiscovered NEOs and especially PHAs, (ii) to determine and continuously monitor their orbital properties and hence their impact probability, and (iii) to investigate their physical nature. Further ongoing activities concern the analysis of possible techniques to mitigate the risk of a NEO impact, when an object is confirmed to be on an Earth colliding trajectory. Depending on the timeframe available before the collision, as well as on the object’s physical properties, various methods to deflect a NEO have been proposed and are currently under study from groups of experts on behalf of international organizations and space agencies. This paper will review our current understanding of the NEO population, the scientific aspects and the ongoing space- and ground-based activities to foresee close encounters and to mitigate the effects of possible impacts. 相似文献
8.
Canada’s Near-Earth Object Surveillance Satellite (NEOSSat), set to launch in early 2012, will search for and track Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), tuning its search to best detect objects with a < 1.0 AU. In order to construct an optimal pointing strategy for NEOSSat, we needed more detailed information in the a < 1.0 AU region than the best current model (Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S. [2002]. Icarus 156, 399–433) provides. We present here the NEOSSat-1.0 NEO orbital distribution model with larger statistics that permit finer resolution and less uncertainty, especially in the a < 1.0 AU region. We find that Amors = 30.1 ± 0.8%, Apollos = 63.3 ± 0.4%, Atens = 5.0 ± 0.3%, Atiras (0.718 < Q < 0.983 AU) = 1.38 ± 0.04%, and Vatiras (0.307 < Q < 0.718 AU) = 0.22 ± 0.03% of the steady-state NEO population. Vatiras are a previously undiscussed NEO population clearly defined in our integrations, whose orbits lie completely interior to that of Venus. Our integrations also uncovered the unexpected production of retrograde orbits from main-belt asteroid sources; this retrograde NEA population makes up ?0.1% of the steady-state NEO population. The relative NEO impact rate onto Mercury, Venus, and Earth, as well as the normalized distribution of impact speeds, was calculated from the NEOSSat-1.0 orbital model under the assumption of a steady-state. The new model predicts a slightly higher Mercury impact flux. 相似文献
9.
N. W. Harris & M. E. Bailey 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,297(4):1227-1236
We present results from long-term numerical integrations of hypothetical Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) over time-scales in excess of the estimated cometary active lifetime. During inactive periods these bodies could be considered as 'cometary' near-Earth objects (NEOs) or 'cometary asteroids'. The contribution of cometary asteroids to the NEO population has important implications not only for understanding the origin of inner Solar system bodies but also for a correct assessment of the impact hazard presented to the Earth by small bodies throughout the Solar system. We investigate the transfer probabilities on to 'decoupled' subJovian orbits by both gravitational and non-gravitational mechanisms, and estimate the overall inactive cometary contribution to the NEO population. Considering gravitational mechanisms alone, more than 90 per cent of decoupled NEOs are likely to have their origin in the main asteroid belt. When non-gravitational forces are included, in a simple model, the rate of production of decoupled NEOs from JFC orbits becomes comparable to the estimated injection rate of fragments from the main belt. The Jupiter-family (non-decoupled) cometary asteroid population is estimated to be of the order of a few hundred to a few thousand bodies, depending on the assumed cometary active lifetime and the adopted source region. 相似文献
10.
Observed spectral properties of near-Earth objects: results for population distribution, source regions, and space weathering processes 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We present new visible and near-infrared spectroscopic measurements for 252 near-Earth (NEO) and Mars-crossing (MC) objects observed from 1994 through 2002 as a complement to the Small Main-Belt Asteroid Spectroscopic Survey (SMASS, http://smass.mit.edu/). Combined with previously published SMASS results, we have an internally consistent data set of more than 400 of these objects for investigating trends related to size, orbits, and dynamical history. These data also provide the basis for producing a bias-corrected estimate for the total NEO population (Stuart and Binzel, 2004, Icarus 170, 295-311). We find 25 of the 26 Bus (1999, PhD thesis) taxonomic types are represented, with nearly 90% of the objects falling within the broad S-, Q-, X-, and C-complexes. Rare A- and E-types are more common in the MC than NEO population (about 5% compared to <1%) and may be direct evidence of slow diffusion into MC orbits from the Flora and Hungaria regions, respectively. A possible family of MC objects (C-types) may reside at the edge of the 5:2 jovian resonance. Distinct signatures are revealed for the relative contributions of different taxonomic types to the NEO population through different source regions. E-types show an origin signature from the inner belt, C-types from the mid to outer belt, and P-types from the outer belt. S- and Q-types have effectively identical main-belt source region profiles, as would be expected if they have related origins. A lack of V-types among Mars-crossers suggests entry into NEO space via rapid transport through the ν6 and 3:1 resonances from low eccentricity main-belt orbits, consistent with a Vesta origin. D-types show the strongest signature from Jupiter family comets (JFC), with a strong JFC component also seen among the X-types. A distinct taxonomic difference is found with respect to the jovian Tisserand parameter T, where C-, D-, and X-type (most likely low albedo P-class) objects predominate for T?3. These objects, which may be extinct comets, comprise 4% of our observed sample, but their low albedos makes this magnitude limited fraction under-representative of the true value. With our taxonomy statistics providing a strong component to the diameter limited bias correction analysis of Stuart (2003, PhD thesis), we estimate 10-18% of the NEO population above any given diameter may be extinct comets, taking into account asteroids scattered into T<3 orbits and comets scattered into T>3 orbits. In terms of possible space weathering effects, we see a size-dependent transition from ordinary chondrite-like (Q-type) objects to S-type asteroids over the size range of 0.1 to 5 km, where the transition is effectively complete at 5 km. A match between the average surface age of 5 km asteroids and the rate of space weathering could constrain models for both processes. However, space weathering may proceed at a very rapid rate compared with collisional timescales. In this case, the presence or absence of a regolith may be the determining factor for whether or not an object appears “space weathered.” Thus 0.1 to 5 km appears to be a critical size range for understanding the processes, timescales, and conditions under which a regolith conducive to space weathering is generated, retained, and refreshed. 相似文献
11.
Earth and space-based NEO survey simulations: prospects for achieving the spaceguard goal 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We have used an improved model of the orbit and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) to simulate the performance of asteroid surveys. Our results support general conclusions of previous studies using preliminary Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) orbit and magnitude distributions and suggest that meeting the Spaceguard Goal of 90% completion for Near Earth Objects (NEOs) greater than 1 km diameter by 2008 is impossible given contemporary surveying capabilities.The NEO model was derived from NEO detections by the Spacewatch Project. For this paper we developed a simulator for the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) for which we had a complete pointing history and NEO detection efficiency. The good match between the output of the simulator and the actual CSS performance gives confidence that both the NEO model and simulator are correct. Then, in order to determine if existing surveys can meet the Spaceguard Goal, we developed a simulator to mimic the LINEAR survey, for which detailed performance characteristics were unavailable. This simulator serendipitously provided an estimate for the currently undiscovered population of NEOs upon which we base all our estimates of time to 90% completion. We also developed a set of idealized NEO surveys in order to constrain the best possible survey performance in contrast to more realistic systems.A 100% efficient, all-sky, every night survey, subject only to the constraints of detection above a specified air mass and when the Sun is 18° below the horizon provides a benchmark from which to examine the effect of imposing more restrictions and the efficacy of some simple survey strategies. Such a survey must have a limiting V-magnitude of 20.1 ± 0.2 to meet the Spaceguard Goal.More realistic surveys, limited by latitude, the galaxy, minimum rates of NEO motion, etc., require fainter limiting magnitudes to reach the same completion. Our most realistic simulations, which have been normalized to the performance of the LINEAR detector system’s operation in the period 1999-2000, indicate that it would take them another 33 ± 5 years to reach 90% completeness for the larger asteroids (?1 km diameter). They would need to immediately increase the limiting magnitude to about 24 in order to meet the Spaceguard Goal.The simulations suggest that there may be little need for distributing survey telescopes in longitude and latitude as long as there is sufficient sky coverage from a telescope or network of telescopes which may be geographically close. An idealized space-based survey, especially from a satellite orbit much interior to Earth, would offer an advantage over their terrestrial counterparts. We do not consider a cost-benefit analysis for any of the simulations but suspect that a local-area network of telescopes capable of covering much of the sky in a month to V ∼ 21.5 may be administratively, financially, and scientifically the best compromise for reaching 90% completion of NEOs larger than 1 km diameter. 相似文献
12.
Utilizing the largest available data sets for the observed taxonomic (Binzel et al., 2004, Icarus 170, 259-294) and albedo (Delbo et al., 2003, Icarus 166, 116-130) distributions of the near-Earth object population, we model the bias-corrected population. Diameter-limited fractional abundances of the taxonomic complexes are A-0.2%; C-10%, D-17%, O-0.5%, Q-14%, R-0.1%, S-22%, U-0.4%, V-1%, X-34%. In a diameter-limited sample, ∼30% of the NEO population has jovian Tisserand parameter less than 3, where the D-types and X-types dominate. The large contribution from the X-types is surprising and highlights the need to better understand this group with more albedo measurements. Combining the C, D, and X complexes into a “dark” group and the others into a “bright” group yields a debiased dark-to-bright ratio of ∼1.6. Overall, the bias-corrected mean albedo for the NEO population is 0.14±0.02, for which an H magnitude of 17.8±0.1 translates to a diameter of 1 km, in close agreement with Morbidelli et al. (2002, Icarus 158 (2), 329-342). Coupling this bias corrected taxonomic and albedo model with the H magnitude dependent size distribution of (Stuart, 2001, Science 294, 1691-1693) yields a diameter distribution with 1090±180 NEOs with diameters larger than 1 km. As of 2004 June, the Spaceguard Survey has discovered 56% of the NEOs larger than 1 km. Using our size distribution model, and orbital distribution of (Stuart, 2001, Science 294, 1691-1693) we calculate the frequency of impacts into the Earth and the Moon. Globally destructive collisions (∼1021 J) of asteroids 1 km or larger strike the Earth once every 0.60±0.1 Myr on average. Regionally destructive collisions with impact energy greater than 4×1018 J (∼200 m diameter) strike the Earth every 56,000±6000 yr. Collisions in the range of the Tunguska event (4-8×1016 J) occur every 2000-3000 yr. These values represent the average time between randomly spaced impacts; actual impacts could occur more or less closely spaced solely by chance. As a verification of these impact rates, the crater production function of Shoemaker et al. (1990, Geological Society of American Special Paper 247) has been updated by combining this new population model with a crater formation model to find that the observed crater production function on both the Earth and Moon agrees with the rate of crater production expected from the current population of NEOs. 相似文献
13.
We estimate the total number and the slope of the size-frequency distribution (SFD) of dormant Jupiter family comets (JFCs) by fitting a one-parameter model to the known population. We first select 61 near-Earth objects (NEOs) that are likely to be dormant JFCs because their orbits are dynamically coupled to Jupiter [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002a. Icarus 156, 399-433]. Then, from the numerical simulations of Levison and Duncan [1997. Icarus 127, 13-32], we construct an orbit distribution model for JFCs in the NEO orbital element space. We assume an orbit-independent SFD for all JFCs, the slope of which is our unique free parameter. Finally, we compute observational biases for dormant JFCs using a calibrated NEO survey simulator [Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Spahr, T., Petit, J., Bottke, W.F., 2003. Icarus 161, 17-33]. By fitting the biased model to the data, we estimate that there are ∼75 dormant JFCs with H<18 in the NEO region and that the slope of their cumulative SFD is −1.5±0.3. Our slope for the SFD of dormant JFCs is very close to that of active JFCs as determined by Weissman and Lowry [2003. Lunar Planet. Sci. 34. Abstract 2003]. Thus, we argue that when JFCs fade they are likely to become dormant rather than to disrupt and that the fate of faded comets is size-independent. Our results imply that the size distribution of the JFC progenitors—the scattered disk trans-neptunian population—either (i) has a similar and shallow SFD or (i′) is slightly steeper and physical processes acting on the comets in a size-dependent manner creates the shallower active comet SFD. Our measured slope, typical of collisionally evolved populations with a size-dependent impact strength [Benz, W., Asphaug, E., 1999. Icarus 142, 5-20], suggests that scattered disk bodies reached collisional equilibrium inside the protoplanetary disk prior to their removal from the planetary region. 相似文献
14.
Hans Rickman Marc Fouchard Christiane Froeschlé Giovanni B. Valsecchi 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2008,102(1-3):111-132
We present Monte Carlo simulations of the dynamical evolution of the Oort cloud over the age of the Solar System, using an initial sample of one million test comets without any cloning. Our model includes perturbations due to the Galactic tide (radial and vertical) and passing stars. We present the first detailed analysis of the injection mechanism into observable orbits by comparing the complete model with separate models for tidal and stellar perturbations alone. We find that a fundamental role for injecting comets from the region outside the loss cone (perihelion distance q > 15 AU) into observable orbits (q < 5 AU) is played by stellar perturbations. These act in synergy with the tide such that the total injection rate is significantly larger than the sum of the two separate rates. This synergy is as important during comet showers as during quiescent periods and concerns comets with both small and large semi-major axes. We propose different dynamical mechanisms to explain the synergies in the inner and outer parts of the Oort Cloud. We find that the filling of the observable part of the loss cone under normal conditions in the present-day Solar System rises from <1% for a < 20 000 AU to about 100% for a ? 100 000 AU. 相似文献
15.
We present a new Near Earth Object (NEO) survey simulator which incorporates the four-dimensional population model of 4668 NEOs [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] and the observing strategies of most asteroid search programs. With the recent expansion of survey capabilities, previous simulators focused on a specific survey facility are no longer useful in predicting the future detection rates. Our simulation is a superposition of simplified search patterns adopted by all major wide-field surveys in operation in both hemispheres. We defined five different simulation periods to follow the evolution of survey efficiencies reflecting changes in either search volume as a result of upgrades of telescopes and instruments or in observing schedules. The simulator makes remarkably good reproductions of actual survey results as of December 2005, not only the total number of detections but also (a,e,i,H) (‘H’ means absolute magnitude of an asteroid) distributions. An extended experiment provides excellent predictions for discovery statistics of NEOs (H<18) reported to the Minor Planet Center in 2006. These support that our simulator is a plausible approximation of real surveys. We further confirm that, with the Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] population model and present survey capability, the 90% completeness level of kilometer-sized NEOs will be achieved by 2010 or 2011. However, about 8% of the kilometer-sized or larger NEOs would remain undetected even after 10-year operation (2007-2016) of all current NEO survey facilities. They are apparently faint, with orbits characterized by large semimajor axis and higher eccentricity; these “hardest-to-find” objects tend to elude the search volume of existing NEO survey facilities. Our simulation suggests that 15% of undetectable objects are Atens and Inner Earth Objects. Because of their orbital characteristics, they will remain within ±45° from the Sun, thus cannot be discovered in the forthcoming decade if our effort is limited to current ground-based telescopes. 相似文献
16.
A numerical simulation of the Oort cloud is used to explain the observed orbital distributions and numbers of Jupiter-family (JF) and Halley-type (HT) short-period (SP) comets. Comets are given initial orbits with perihelion distances between 5 and 36 au, and evolve under planetary, stellar and Galactic perturbations for 4.5 Gyr. This process leads to the formation of an Oort cloud (which we define as the region of semimajor axes a > 1,000 au), and to a flux of cometary bodies from the Oort cloud returning to the planetary region at the present epoch. The results are consistent with the dynamical characteristics of SP comets and other observed cometary populations: the near-parabolic flux, Centaurs, and high-eccentricity trans-Neptunian objects. To achieve this consistency with observations, the model requires that the number of comets versus initial perihelion distance is concentrated towards the outer planetary region. Moreover, the mean physical lifetime of observable comets in the inner planetary region (q < 2.5 au) at the present epoch should be an increasing function of the comets’ initial perihelion distances. Virtually all observed HT comets and nearly half of observed JF comets come from the Oort cloud, and initially (4.5 Gyr ago) from orbits concentrated near the outer planetary region. Comets that have been in the Oort cloud also return to the Centaur (5 < q < 28 au, a < 1,000 au) and near-Neptune high-eccentricity regions. Such objects with perihelia near Neptune are hard to discover, but Centaurs with characteristics predicted by the model (e.g. large semimajor axes, above 60 au, or high inclinations, above 40°) are increasingly being found by observers. The model provides a unified picture for the origin of JF and HT comets. It predicts that the mean physical lifetime of all comets in the region q < 1.5 au is less than ～200 revolutions. 相似文献
17.
Julio A. Fernández 《Icarus》1980,42(3):406-421
The orbital evolution of 500 hypothetical comets during 109 years is studied numerically. It is assumed that the birthplace of such comets was the region of Uranus and Neptune from where they were deflected into very elongated orbits by perturbations of these planets. Then, we adopted the following initial orbital elements: perihelion distances between 20 and 30 AU, inclinations to the ecliptic plane smaller than 20°, and semimajor axes from 5 × 103 to 5 × 104 AU. Gravitational perturbations by the four giant planets and by hypothetical stars passing at distances from the Sun smaller than 5 × 105 AU are considered. During the simulation, somewhat more than 50% of the comets were lost from the solar system due to planetary or stellar perturbations. The survivors were removed from the planetary region and left as members of what is generally known as the cometary cloud. At the end of the studied period, the semimajor axes of the surviving comets tend to be concentrated in the interval 2 × 104 < a < 3 × 104 AU. The orbital planes of the comets with initial acquired a complete randomization while the others still maintain a slight predominance of direct orbits. In addition, comet orbits with final a < 6 × 104AU preserve high eccentricities with an average value greater than 0.8 Most “new” comets from the sample entering the region interior to Jupiter's orbit had already registered earlier passages through the planetary region. By scaling up the rate of paritions of hypothetical new comets with the observed one, the number of members of the cometary cloud is estimated to be about 7 × 1010 and the conclusion is drawn that Uranus and Neptune had to remove a number of comets ten times greater. 相似文献
18.
The Wide Field Camera (WFC) on the Hubble Space Telescope and the Low Resolution Imaging Spectrograph (LRIS) on the Keck II telescope have been used to image 21 distant dynamically new, long-period (LP) and short-period (SP) Jupiter-family (JF) comet nuclei (near aphelion), as part of a long-term program to search for physical differences between short-period comets and Oort cloud comets. WFC data were obtained on Comets C/1987 H1 (Shoemaker) and C/1984 K1 (Shoemaker) during Cycle 5 (1995 December) and on C/1988 B1 (Shoemaker), C/1987 F1 (Torres), and C/1983 O1 (?ernis) during Cycle 6 (1997 April, May, and June). The HST comets were at heliocentric distances 20.4 < r[AU] < 29.5. Each comet observation was allocated 7 orbits, for ≈3.6 hrs of integration. The most difficult part of the image reduction was the removal of cosmic rays. We present our scheme for cosmic ray removal. None of the HST comet nuclei was detected to the 3-σ level at mR∼27. The inferred upper limits to the nucleus radii are . The SP comets range in radius between , with a median value of RN∼1.61 km. The LP comets ranged in size between <4.0-56 km. Over a range of radii between 1-10 km, the nuclei can be fit with a cumulative distribution N(>RN)∝RN−α with α=1.45±0.05, and for nuclei in the range 2-5 km, α=1.91±0.06. Statistical analysis and modeling shows that the slopes of the observed TNO and JF comet distributions are not compatible, suggesting that the intrinsic distribution of JF comet nuclei is a differential a−3.5 power law truncated at small nucleus radii between 0.3 and 2.0 km. 相似文献
19.
O. A. Mazeeva 《Solar System Research》2007,41(2):118-128
This study analyzes the evolution of 2 × 105 orbits with initial parameters corresponding to the orbits of comets of the Oort cloud under the action of planetary, galactic, and stellar perturbations over 2 × 109 years. The dynamical evolution of comets of the outer (orbital semimajor axes a > 104 AU) and inner (5 × 103 < a (AU) < 104) parts of the comet cloud is analyzed separately. The estimates of the flux of “new” and long-period comets for all perihelion distances q in the planetary region are reported. The flux of comets with a > 104 AU in the interval 15 AU < q < 31 AU is several times higher than the flux of comets in the region q < 15 AU. We point out the increased concentration of the perihelia of orbits of comets from the outer cloud, which have passed several times through the planetary system, in the Saturn-Uranus region. The maxima in the distribution of the perihelia of the orbits of comets of the inner Oort cloud are located in the Uranus-Neptune region. “New” comets moving in orbits with a < 2 × 104 AU and arriving at the outside of the planetary system (q > 25 AU) subsequently have a greater number of returns to the region q < 35 AU. The perihelia of the orbits of these comets gradually drift toward the interior of the Solar System and accumulate beyond the orbit of Saturn. The distribution of the perihelia of long-period comets beyond the orbit of Saturn exhibits a peak. We discuss the problem of replenishing the outer Oort cloud by comets from the inner part and their subsequent dynamical evolution. The annual rate of passages of comets of the inner cloud, which replenish the outer cloud, in the region q < 1 AU in orbits with a > 104 AU (～ 5.0 × 10?14 yr?1) is one order of magnitude lower than the rate of passage of comets from the outer Oort cloud (～ 9.1 × 10?13 yr?1). 相似文献
20.
Ignacio Ferrín 《Icarus》2006,185(2):523-543
We present the secular light curve (SLC) of 133P/Elst-Pizarro, and show ample and sufficient evidence to conclude that it is evolving into a dormant phase. The SLC provides a great deal of information to characterize the object, the most important being that it exhibits outburst-like activity without a corresponding detectable coma. 133P will return to perihelion in July of 2007 when some of our findings may be corroborated. The most significant findings of this investigation are: (1) We have compiled from 127 literature references, extensive databases of visual colors (37 comets), rotational periods and peak-to-valley amplitudes (64 comets). 2-Dimensional plots are created from these databases, which show that comets do not lie on a linear trend but in well defined areas of these phase spaces. When 133P is plotted in the above diagrams, its location is entirely compatible with those of comets. (2) A positive correlation is found between cometary rotational periods and diameters. One possible interpretation suggest the existence of rotational evolution predicted by several theoretical models. (3) A plot of the historical evolution of cometary nuclei density estimates shows no trend with time, suggesting that perhaps a consensus is being reached. We also find a mean bulk density for comets of 〈ρ〉=0.52±0.06 g/cm3. This value includes the recently determined spacecraft density of Comet 9P/Tempel 1, derived by the Deep Impact team. (4) We have derived values for over 18 physical parameters, listed in the SLC plots, Figs. 6-9. (5) The secular light curve of 133P/Elst-Pizarro exhibits a single outburst starting at +42±4 d (after perihelion), peaking at LAG=+155±10 d, duration 191±11 d, and amplitude 2.3±0.2 mag. These properties are compatible with those of other low activity comets. (6) To explain the large time delay in maximum brightness, LAG, two hypothesis are advanced: (a) the existence of a deep ice layer that the thermal wave has to reach before sublimation is possible, or (b) the existence of a sharp polar active region pointing to the Sun at time = LAG, that may take the form of a polar ice cap, a polar fissure or even a polar crater. The diameter of this zone is calculated at ∼1.8 km. (7) A new time-age is defined and it its found that T-AGE = 80 cy for 133P, a moderately old comet. (8) We propose that the object has its origin in the main belt of asteroids, thus being an asteroid-comet hybrid transition object, an asteroidal belt comet (ABC), proven by its large density. (9) Concerning the final evolutionary state of this object, to be a truly extinct comet the radius must be less than the thermal wave depth, which at 1 AU is ∼250 m (at the perihelion distance of 133P the thermal wave penetrates only ∼130 m). Comets with radius larger than this value cannot become extinct but dormant. Thus we conclude that 133P cannot evolve into a truly extinct comet because it has too large a diameter. Instead it is shown to be entering a dormant phase. (10) We predict the existence of truly extinct comets in the main belt of asteroids (MBA) beginning at absolute magnitude ∼21.5 (diameter smaller than ∼190 m). (11) The object demonstrates that a comet may have an outburst of ∼2.3 mag, and not show any detectable coma. (12) Departure from a photometric R+2 law is a more sensitive method (by a factor of 10) to detect activity than star profile fitting or spectroscopy. (13) Sufficient evidence is presented to conclude that 133P is the first member of a new class of objects, an old asteroidal belt comet, ABC, entering a dormant phase. 相似文献