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1.
Tree rings have been used to reconstruct the occurrence of debris flows and other mass movements. Identification of past activity was typically based on the presence of growth anomalies in trees, with a focus on scars, stem tilting, trunk burial or apex decapitation. Clear guidelines have been missing so far and the dating of events has only rarely been based on thresholds so as to distinguish signal from noise. In a similar way, the spatial distribution of affected trees has not normally been considered in mass movement reconstructions, and was at best used as a subjective exclusion factor. This study therefore aims at improving dating quality of and reducing noise in debris-flow time series. Based on a dataset of 803 increment cores (385 trees) affected by debris flows, we reconstruct event histories using (i) a classical experts' approach, (ii) a weighted index (Wit) of responding trees as well as (iii) Moran's I and Getis–Ord Local Gi indices. We identify similarities and differences in results and then investigate subsets of the tree-ring sample to define ideal sampling positions on debris-flow cones and guidelines for sample depth.  相似文献   

2.
A dataset of 809 debris flows that occurred in 537 basins in mountainous areas of northeastern Italy between the mid-19th century and 2015 is collected and analyzed. A remarkable increase in the number of events is observed in the last four decades and is mainly ascribed to more systematic data collection. The correlation between debris-flow volume and drainage basin area is obtained assuming a power-law relationship. The exponent of the power-law curve at the 50th percentile (0.67 ± 0.02) indicates negative allometry, which means that basin area grows out of proportion to debris-flow volume. In contrast, the exponents at the 98th and 99th percentiles are close to one, implying that debris-flow volumes grow linearly with basin areas. The isometric relationship between the largest debris flows and the corresponding basin areas is due to the enhanced debris supply provided by the activation of widespread sediment sources, the extent of which is proportional to the basin size. The probability density function of debris-flow volume for a subset of the collected dataset is calculated using the kernel density estimation function, which permits estimating the probability of the occurrence of debris flows that exceed a given threshold volume. The comparison with debris flows in other hydroclimatic regions shows that, although debris-flow volumes in northeastern Italy may attain high values, they are often exceeded by debris flows that occur in seismically active regions and/or are triggered by more intense rainstorms. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Debris flows are fast-moving gravity flows of poorly sorted rock and soil, mixed and saturated with water. Debris-flow initiation has been studied using empirical and experimental modelling, but the geomorphic changes, indicative of different triggering processes, are difficult to constrain with field observations only. We identify signatures to distinguish two different debris-flow release styles by integrating high-resolution multi-temporal remote sensing datasets and morphometric analysis. We analyse debris flows sourced above the town of Ísafjörður (Iceland). Two debris-flow triggering processes were previously hypothesised for this site: (i) slope failure, characterised by landslides evolving into debris flows; and (ii) the fire-hose effect, in which debris accumulated in pre-existing, steep-sided bedrock passages is transported by a surge of water. It is unknown which process dominates and determines the local risk. To investigate this question, we compare airborne LiDAR elevation models and aerial photographs collected in 2007 with similar data from 2013. We find that two new debris-flow tracks were created by slope failures. These are characterised by steep sliding surfaces and lateral leveed channels. Slope failure also occurred in two large, recently active tracks, creating the preparatory conditions for the fire-hose effect to mobilise existing debris. These tracks show alternating zones of fill and scour along their length, and debris stored below the source-area at rest angles >35°. Our approach allows us to identify and quantify the morphological changes produced by slope failure release process, which generated the preparatory conditions for the fire-hose effect. As debris flows are rarely observed in action and morphological changes induced by them are difficult to detect and monitor, the same approach could be applied to other landscapes to understand debris-flow initiation in the absence of other monitoring information, and can improve the identification of zones at risk in inhabited areas near hillslopes with potential for debris flows. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Debris-flow runout is a fascinating process to understand due to its implications for downstream alluvial fans. Based on the propagation-deposition behaviors of the Dongyuege (DYG) debris flow, in Yunnan, the effect of biofilms on channel surfaces on debris-flow runout is investigated in laboratory flumes with two different internal surfaces: surfaces are lined with granite slabs (Model I) and gravel (Model II), respectively. Our results show that biofilms can significantly reduce frictional resistance to flows. They increase flow velocities, slow down the deceleration of the snouts, prolong runout distances, and subsequently extend the areas covered with resulting deposits, thus greatly assisting the propagation of experimental debris flows. Slippery biofilms consisting mainly of diatoms and their extracellular mucus (ECM) reduce the contact friction between the flume-beds and the overlying fluids, and greatly promote the propagation of tested flows. Well-developed biofilms are found on the underwater channel surfaces of the DYG Creek. Acting as lubricating layers, they likely played a key role in the DYG debris-flow runout. Most of the debris transported during the DYG event was deposited on overbanks, and the sediment that caused the disaster was transported to the populated fan region through the stream-bed clad in the thick biofilms. Owing to their impacts on the development and width of the temporary debris dam breach, the stream-bed covered with biofilms became a direct contributor to the debris-flow hazard. Because of the ubiquitous presence of biofilms on mountain stream-bed surfaces, the development of perennial streamflows can be viewed as an indicator of gully susceptibility to debris flows threatening creek fans. The underwater areas of pre-event channel cross-sections should be regarded as slip or low-friction boundaries, and the parts above stream-levels can be viewed as no-slip boundaries. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
An increase in debris-flow frequency is expected in steep Alpine catchments after the occurrence of a large landslide, such as a rock avalanche. Herein we describe changes in debris-flow activity following increases in sediment availability due to landslides, or accelerated rock-glacier movement, for five catchments in the Swiss Alps, the Spreitgraben, Schipfenbach, Bondasca, Riascio, and Dorfbach catchments. Documentation on debris-flow activity is available from both before and after the landslide that generated the new sediment deposits. Data from nearby meteorological stations were used to explore possible changes in rainfall activity, and how the intensity and duration of rainfall events may have changed. In all cases there was a considerable increase in debris-flows frequency for one to eight years following the landslide. The annual number of days with debris-flow activity following the landslide was similar to that observed for the Illgraben catchment, where many such landslides occur annually. No clear change in precipitation totals preceding debris flows was apparent for the Riascio catchment, suggesting that the increase in frequency of debris flows is related to the increase in the amount of sediment that can be readily mobilized. In the two cases where rainfall data were available on an hourly basis, no systematic changes in the intensity or duration of rainfall related to debris-flow triggering were apparent, as shown by the close-clustering of storms on the intensity-duration plots. Following the sediment-generating event, an initial and sudden increase of the sediment yield was observed, followed by a decrease over time towards pre-disturbance values. The response of the catchments appears to be related to the amount of debris-flow activity prior to the landslide: sediment yield from catchments with frequent debris flows prior to the landslide activity did not increase as dramatically as in catchments where debris-flow activity was less common prior to the landslide. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Debris flows are among the most destructive and hazardous mass movements on steep mountains. An understanding of debris-flow erosion, entrainment and resulting volumes is a key requirement for modelling debris-flow propagation and impact, as well as analysing the associated risks. As quantitative controls of erosion and entrainment are not well understood, total volume, runout and impact energies of debris flows are often significantly underestimated. Here, we present an analysis of geomorphic change induced by an erosive debris-flow event in the German Alps in June 2015. More than 50 terrestrial laser scans of a 1.2 km long mountain torrent recorded geomorphic change in comparison to an airborne laser scan performed in 2007. Errors were calculated using a spatial variable threshold based on the point density of airborne laser scanning and terrestrial laser scanning and the slope of the digital elevation models. Highest erosion rates approach 5.0 m3/m2 (mean 0.6 m3/m2). During the event 9550 ± 1550 m3 was eroded whereas only 650 ± 150 m3 was deposited in the channel. Velocity, flow pressure, momentum and shear stress were calculated using a carefully calibrated RAMMS Debris Flow model including material entrainment. Here we present a linear regression model relating debris-flow erosion rates to momentum and shear stress with an R2 up to 68%. Channel transitions from bedrock to loose debris sections cause excessive erosion up to 1 m3/m2 due to previously unreleased random kinetic energy now available for erosion. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
AbstractUsing observations from 688 debris flows, we analyse the hydrologic and landscape characteristics that influenced debris-flow initiation mechanisms and locations in a watershed that had been partially burned by the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire in the Gila Mountains, southern New Mexico. Debris flows can initiate due to different processes. Slopes can fail as discrete landslides and then become fluidized and move downstream as debris flows (landslide initiated) or progressive bulking of sediment from a distributed area can become channelized and concentrated as it moves downslope (runoff generated). In this study, we have an unusual opportunity to investigate both types of debris-flow initiation mechanisms in our observations of debris flows, triggered by an exceptional rainstorm in the autumn of 2013. Additionally, we compare our observations with those of a dataset of 1138 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range, triggered during the same weather system. We found that runoff-generated debris flows dominated in burn areas, and runoff required to start these flows could be well characterized by the Shields stress. Landslide-initiated debris flows were dominant in unburned areas. Debris-flow densities were tied to total rainfall and precipitation intensities. Like the observations in the Colorado Front Range, debris-flow initiation locations were found primarily in areas of relatively sparse vegetation on south-facing slopes between 25 and 40°, and with upslope contributing areas less than 1000 m2. In terms of preferential locations for debris-flow initiations, 2013 vegetation coverage, approximated by Green–Red Vegetation Index metrics, proved to be more influential than the 2012 burn-severity designation. The uniformity of observations between our study area and those in the Colorado Front Range indicate that the underlying hydrologic and landscape patterns of the debris-flow initiation locations documented in these studies could be applicable to the wider southwest and Rocky Mountain regions. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western United States where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within five burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm h−1 lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-min rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Predicting the timing of overland flow in burned watersheds can help to estimate debris-flow timing and the location of debris-flow initiation. Numerical models can produce flow predictions, but they are limited by our knowledge of appropriate model parameters. Moreover, opportunities to test and calibrate model parameters in post-wildfire settings are limited by available data (measurements of debris-flow timing are rare). In this study, we use a unique data set of rainfall and flow-timing data to test the extent to which model parameters can be generalized from an individual watershed to other watersheds (0.01 km 2 to >1km 2) within a burned area. Simulations suggest that a single, low, saturated hydraulic conductivity value can be used in post-wildfire landscapes with reasonable results. By contrast, we found that watershed-scale effective Manning roughness parameter values decrease as a power-law function of basin drainage area. Thus a Manning roughness parameter calibrated for a single basin within a burned area may not provide adequate results in a different watershed. However, when flow velocity is modeled independently for hillslopes and channels, and different roughness parameters are used for those morphometric units, there is no drainage-area dependence on the roughness parameters. Moreover, we found that it was possible to use field-measured grain size data to parameterize the roughness for both hillslopes and channels. Thus our results show that, employing this generalizable approach, it is possible to use field measurements to fully parameterize a model that produces peak flow timing to within a few minutes in storms lasting several hours. Further, we demonstrate how model simulations can be leveraged to identify areas within a watershed that are most susceptible to debris flows. This modeling approach could be used for decision making in hazardous burned areas and would be especially useful in ungaged basins. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Debris flows occurring on Klapperhorn Mountain in the Yellowhead Pass in the Canadian Rocky Mountains pose a significant hazard to railway operations at the base of the mountain. The size （volume） and travel distance of these debris flows play an important role in assessing the risk to the railway. GIS analysis, airphoto interpretation together with field work were undertaken on two debris flows located at track mileage 54.0 and 54.3. Characteristics of these two debris flow events were analyzed, including debris flow path morphology and event behavior. Their sizes and travel distances were estimated using an empirical-statistical model （UBCDFLOW） under different initiation conditions. Their potential impact on the railway bridge was evaluated using a bridge blockage ratio.  相似文献   

11.
Extreme rainfall in June 1949 and November 1985 triggered numerous large debris flows on the steep slopes of North Fork Mountain, eastern West Virginia. Detailed mapping at four sites and field observations of several others indicate that the debris flows began in steep hillslope hollows, propagated downslope through the channel system, eroded channel sediment, produced complex distributions of deposits in lower gradient channels, and delivered sediment to floodwaters beyond the debris-flow termini. Based on the distribution of deposits and eroded surfaces, up to four zones were identified with each debris flow: an upper failure zone, a middle transport/erosion zone, a lower deposition zone, and a sediment-laden floodwater zone immediately downstream from the debris-flow terminus. Geomorphic effects of the debris flows in these zones are spatially variable. The initiation of debris flows in the failure zones and passage through the transport/erosion zones are characterized by degradation; 2300 to 17 000 m3 of sediment was eroded from these zones. The total volume of channel erosion in the transport/erosion zones was 1·3 to 1·5 times greater than the total volume of sediment that initially failed, indicating that the debris flows were effective erosion agents as they travelled through the transport/erosion zones. The overall response in the deposition zones was aggradation. However, up to 43 per cent of the sediment delivered to these zones was eroded by floodwaters from joining tributaries immediately after debris-flow deposition. This sediment was incorporated into floodwaters downstream from the debris-flow termini causing considerable erosion and deposition in these channels. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
FLATModel is a 2D finite volume code that contains several original approaches to improve debris-flow simulation. Firstly, FLATModel incorporates a ＂stop-and-go＂ technique in each cell to allow continuous collapses and remobilizations of the debris-flow mass. Secondly, flow velocity and consequently yield stress is directly associated with the type of rheology to improve boundary accuracy. Thirdly, a simple approach for entrainment is also included in the model to analyse the effect of basal erosion of debris flows. FLATMODEL was tested at several events that occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees and simulation results indicated that the model can represent rather well the different characteristics observed in the field.  相似文献   

13.
“Disaster risk assessment” is important in the planning of risk management strategies that reduce societal losses. However, governmental agencies in Taiwan generally assess risks that emerge from debris flows without adequately considering risk management and taking a systems approach. This work proposes an approach to thoroughly consider the interactive influence mechanism of debris flow disaster risk. Additionally, a systematic method for assessing disaster risks is developed. This proposed method can be used in the current risk assessment and as a basis for management strategy planning. Based on systems thinking, the components and attributes of a conceptual system of disaster risk management associated with debris flows in a river basin are identified. Subsequently, a conceptual mitigation–hazard–exposure–resistance framework and an indicator system for assessing the debris flow disaster risks in a river basin are identified. The disaster risks for each exposed community in each drainage zone can be systematically calculated based on the current status or plans of prevention and evacuation measures using the proposed indicator system. A case study of implementing the proposed methodology that involves the Chishan River Basin is presented, in which disaster risk according to the current status of prevention and evacuation measures is assessed. Drainage zones and communities with a significant debris flow disaster risk are located; this risk is associated with a lack of adequate prevention and evacuation measures that have been planned of government agencies. Analytical results indicate that the proposed methodology can systematically and effectively assess the disaster risks of a river basin. The proposed methodology provides a valuable reference for governmental agencies that must manage disaster risk associated with debris flows.  相似文献   

14.
汶川Ms8.0级地震驱动的构造抬升作用和滑坡、泥石流剥蚀作用如何影响龙门山的地貌生长是目前争论的焦点。本文运用GIS技术,定量计算了湔江流域的坡度、地形起伏度、面积—高程积分等地貌参数,根据这些参数的计算结果,对湔江流域的构造地貌特征进行了量化分析;以汶川Ms8.0级地震重灾区湔江海子河右岸流域的滑坡、泥石流为例,并且利用野外实测资料、卫星照片及数字高程资料等,对于汶川地震驱动的构造抬升与滑坡、泥石流的表面侵蚀过程进行研究,获得以下初步认识:(1)湔江流域的映秀—北川断层以北地区地貌处于"壮年期",坡度、地形起伏度大;(2)汶川Ms8.0级地震后该地区发生了严重的同震滑坡及震后滑坡、泥石流灾害,海子河右岸流域的同震抬升量为5 339×104m3,同震滑坡量为3 852×104m3,同震抬升量大于同震滑坡量,地貌出现生长现象;(3)地震产生的泥石流量应略大于1 000×104m3,同震滑坡物质的30%转化为了泥石流量,因其海子沟右岸陡峻的坡度,绝大部分的泥石流冲入海子河,成为河道沉积物;(4)以目前湔江海子河流水搬运能力,在能够完全搬运出同震滑坡物质的前提下,同震滑坡物质搬运出龙门山至少需要283.2 a,表明在一个地震周期内,龙门山的同震滑坡物质可以搬运出龙门山;(5)准周期性相当震级地震引起的构造抬升及其均衡反弹作用也是龙门山的形成有重要作用的因素之一。  相似文献   

15.
Extreme rainfall-induced debris flow can be catastrophic to an urban area,and installation of slit-type barriers can prevent such damage while minimizing negative impact on environments.However,the performance of slit-type barriers against debris flows remains poorly identified partly due to the innate complexity in interactions between debris flow and solid structure.This paper investigated the flow behaviors of debris affected by slit-type barriers using the computational fluid dynamics(CFD)method,in which the numerical model based on the volume of fluid method was verified using the physical modeling results.The sensitivity analysis was performed by building metamodels to determine the primary parameters influencing the barrier performance against debris flows among various variables,in which the effect of input properties and design parameters,particularly the soil concentration in fluidized debris,initial velocity and volume of debris,the barrier height,and the opening ratio,was evaluated from the perspectives of the flow energy reduction and debris trapping.The initial velocity and volume of debris were found to play a significant role in determining the debris flow characteristics.A decrease in the opening ratio in the channel primarily facilitated the energy reduction and trapping due to the reduced opening size.However,the barrier height exhibited a limited effect when the height was sufficiently high to block the debris flow volume.In addition,it was observed that the double barrier system effectively increased the energy reduction while keeping the benefit of open-type barrier.The developed simulation method and obtained results provide an effective tool and an insight that can contribute to an optimum design of the debris-flow barrier.  相似文献   

16.
The Campania Region (southern Italy) is characterized by the frequent occurrence of volcaniclastic debris flows that damage property and loss of life (more than 170 deaths between 1996 and 1999). Historical investigation allowed the identification of more than 500 events during the last four centuries; in particular, more than half of these occurred in the last 100 years, causing hundreds of deaths. The aim of this paper is to quantify debris-flow hazard potential in the Campania Region. To this end, we compared several elements such as the thickness distribution of pyroclastic fall deposits from the last 18 ka of the Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields volcanoes, the slopes of relieves, and the historical record of volcaniclastic debris flows from A.D. 1500 to the present. Results show that flow occurrence is not only a function of the cumulative thickness of past pyroclastic fall deposits but also depends on the age of emplacement. Deposits younger than 10 ka (Holocene eruptions) apparently increase the risk of debris flows, while those older than 10 ka (Late Pleistocene eruptions) seem to play a less prominent role, which is probably due to different climatic conditions, and therefore different rates of erosion of pyroclastic falls between the Holocene and the Late Pleistocene. Based on the above considerations, we compiled a large-scale debris-flow hazard map of the study area in which five main hazard zones are identified: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high.  相似文献   

17.
The Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999 caused disastrous landslides, which triggered numerous debris flows and killed hundreds of people, A critical rainfall intensity line for each debris-flow stream is studied to prevent such a disaster. However, setting rainfall lines from incomplete data is difficult, so this study considered eight critical factors to group streams, such that streams within a cluster have similar rainfall lines. A genetic algorithm is applied to group 377 debris-flow streams selected from the center of an area affected by the Chi-Chi earthquake, These streams are grouped into seven clusters with different characteristics, The results reveal that the proposed method effectively groups debris-flow streams.  相似文献   

18.
Predicting the spatial impact of debris flows on fans is challenging due to complex runout behaviour. Debris flow mobility is highly variable and flows can sporadically avulse the channel. For hazard and risk assessments, practitioners typically base the probability of spatial impact or avulsion on their experience and expert judgement. To support decision-making with empirical observations, we studied spatial impact distributions on 30 active debris-flow fans in south-western British Columbia, Canada. We mapped 146 debris-flow impact areas over an average observation period of 74 years using orthorectified airphotos, satellite imagery, topographic base maps, LiDAR data, orthophotos, and field observations. We devised a graphical method to convert our geospatial mapping into spatial impact heat maps normalized by fan boundaries, enabling comparison of runout distributions across different fans. About 90% of the mapped debris flows reached beyond the mid-points of fans, while less than 10% avulsed more than half-way across the fan relative to the previous flow path. Most avulsions initiated at distances of 20% to 40% of the maximum fan length from the fan apex and upstream of the fan intersection point. Large volume events tend to be more mobile in the down-fan direction, but the relation between volume and cross-fan runout (e.g., avulsions) is more complex. Differences in spatial impact distributions can be explained, in part, by the degree of fan incision and whether a fan is truncated at its toe by a river or lake. There were no significant differences in spatial impact distributions based on the geology of the source area, sediment supply condition, or hydrogeomorphic process classification.  相似文献   

19.
In many Alpine catchments the monitoring and hazard mitigation of debris‐flow events require enormous economic and social resources. To confront these problems, a subjective estimation of the most hazardous zones of the basin could be useful in the best, sustainable planning of protective measures. In this paper, a new methodology is proposed that develops a Management Priority Index (MPI) to rank sediment source areas by their quantitative capability to deliver debris‐flow volumes to a point of interest within the catchment. The MPI sets the intervention priority based on a combination of three sub‐indicators: a susceptibility indicator evaluating the overall catchment predisposition to generate debris flow, a triggering indicator and a volume budget indicator assessing the rate of deliverable volume to a selected outlet. MPI was applied to the basin of the Rio Gadria catchment (Venosta Valley, Bolzano, Italy), an alpine basin with an unlimited sediment supply that is characterized by multiple, very active, shallow landslides and bare soil zones. The proposed ranking method was successfully verified using post‐event surveys and through evidence from consolidation check dams built over many years in the basin. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
In recent decades, slope instability in high-mountain regions has often been linked to increase in temperature and the associated permafrost degradation and/or the increase in frequency/intensity of rainstorm events. In this context we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and potential controlling mechanisms of small- to medium-sized mass movements in a high-elevation catchment of the Italian Alps (Sulden/Solda basin). We found that slope-failure events (mostly in the form of rockfalls) have increased since the 2000s, whereas the occurrence of debris flows has increased only since 2010. The current climate-warming trend registered in the study area apparently increases the elevation of rockfall-detachment areas by approximately 300 m, mostly controlled by the combined effects of frost-cracking and permafrost thawing. In contrast, the occurrence of debris flows does not exhibit such an altitudinal shift, as it is primarily driven by extreme precipitation events exceeding the 75th percentile of the intensity-duration rainfall distribution. Potential debris-flow events in this environment may additionally be influenced by the accumulation of unconsolidated debris over time, which is then released during extreme rainfall events. Overall, there is evidence that the upper Sulden/Solda basin (above ca. 2500 m above sea level [a.s.l.]), and especially the areas in the proximity of glaciers, have experienced a significant decrease in slope stability since the 2000s, and that an increase in rockfalls and debris flows during spring and summer can be inferred. Our study thus confirms that “forward-looking” hazard mapping should be undertaken in these increasingly frequented, high-elevation areas of the Alps, as environmental change has elevated the overall hazard level in these regions.  相似文献   

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