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1.
The vibrational distribution of nitric oxide in the polar ionosphere computed according to the one-dimensional non-steady model of chemical and vibrational kinetics of the upper atmosphere has been compared with experimental data from rocket measurement. Some input parameters of the model have been varied to obtain the least-averaged deviation of the calculated population from experimental one. It is shown that the least deviation of our calculations from experimental measurements depends sufficiently on both the surprisal parameter of the production reaction of metastable atomic nitrogen with molecular oxygen and the profile of atomic oxygen concentration. The best agreement with the MSIS-83 profile was obtained for the value of surprisal parameter corresponding to recent laboratory estimations. The measured depression of level v = 2 is obtained in the calculation that uses sufficiently increased concentrations of atomic oxygen. It is pointed out that similar measurements of infrared radiation intensities could be used to estimate the atomic oxygen concentrations during auroral disturbances of the upper atmosphere.  相似文献   

2.
Romanian loess -palaeosol sequences are amongst the thickest and most complete available in Europe. These deposits represent an extended continental record of environmental and climatic change during at least five glacial/interglacial cycles. Their chronology, however, is mainly based on relative methods. In this paper, we investigate whether SAR–OSL dating of fine-grained quartz can be used to establish a reliable chronology for Romanian loess.The samples were collected from the loess–palaeosol sequence near Mircea Vod? (Dobrogea, SE Romania). The luminescence characteristics of the fine-grained quartz extracts are investigated to some extent, and indicate that the applied laboratory measurement procedure (SAR) is reliable. An internally consistent set of optical ages is obtained for the loess deposited up to ～70 ka, and evidence is presented for a varying loess accumulation rate during the Last Glacial. Comparison with independent age control (pedostratigraphy and a newly-developed palaeomagnetic time–depth model) indicates that the optical dating procedure underestimates the true burial age from the penultimate glacial period onwards (i.e. for samples below the last interglacial S1 palaeosol). These results indicate that an apparently reliable laboratory measurement procedure not necessarily yields accurate sedimentation ages. We suggest that quartz-based SAR–OSL ages obtained using the high dose linear region of the growth curve are interpreted with caution.  相似文献   

3.
We have applied a variation of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which is a stochastic triggering epidemic model incorporating short-term clustering, to data collected by the New Zealand Seismological Observatory-Wellington (Geonet) for forecasting earthquakes of moderate and large magnitude in the New Zealand region. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. A maximum likelihood estimate of the model parameters has been performed on the learning period from 1960 to 2005 for earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and larger. Forecast verification procedures have been carried out in a forward-retrospective way on the January 2006 to April 2008 data set, making use of statistical tools as the log-likelihood ratio, the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams, the Molchan error diagrams, the probability gain and the R-score. These procedures show that the clustering epidemic model achieves a log-likelihood ratio per event of the order of some units, and a probability gain up to several hundred times larger than a time-independent spatially uniform random forecasting hypothesis. The results show also that a significant component of the probability gain is linked to the time-independent spatial distribution of the seismicity used in the model.  相似文献   

4.
In order to establish a reliable chronology for lacustrine sediments of the Frickenhauser See (central Germany) different dating methods have been applied. A total of 17 AMS 14C dates, all within the last 2000 years, were supplemented with 137Cs/210Pb dating and varve counting of the uppermost sediments (131 years). The age–depth model for the Frickenhauser See has to cope with highly variable sedimentation rates and overlapping probability distributions of calibrated 14C dates. The uncertainty of calibrated 14C dates could be considerably reduced by including the stratigraphic relationship of the dated samples, the age information derived from short-lived isotopes and varve counting as well as an upper and lower limit of realistic sedimentation rates as ‘a priori’ information in the calibration procedure. Sets of possible age combinations obtained by repeated sampling from the modified probability distributions were used to calculate continuous age–depth relationships based on monotonic smoothing splines. The obtained age–depth model for the sediment record of the Frickenhauser See represents the average of over 16,000 such model runs and suggests a drastic increase in sedimentation rates from around 1–2 mm a−1 (200–1000 AD) to over 25 mm a−1 for the period between 1100 and 1300 AD. From then on, sedimentation rates exhibit relatively stable values around 3–9 mm a−1. ‘Conventional’ age–depth models such as general polynomial regression or cubic splines either do not include the obtained age-information in a satisfying manner (the model being too “stiff”) or exhibit “swings” causing age-reversals in the model. Although the age–depth relationships obtained for monotonic smoothing splines and mixed-effect regression are generally very similar, they differ in their respective sedimentation rates as well as in their uncertainties. Mixed-effect regression resulted in much higher sedimentation rates of more than 37 mm a−1. These results suggest that monotonic smoothing splines give better control of the age–depth model characteristics and are well suited in situations, where the integrity of 14C dates is high, i.e. the dated material represents the age of the respective layer.  相似文献   

5.
For analyzing measurements of any kind, it is important to estimate the probability distribution of the measurement errors. When modelling the observations using least-squares fitting, the distribution of the errors plays a vital role in choosing the merit function to be minimized, as unnormally distributed errors (e.g. outliers, or displaying asymmetry around the mean) may substantially skew a least-squares fit of estimated model parameters. Using the CACTUS accelerometer data covering heights of 230–750 km, we will show that the statistical relationship between the commonly used semi-empirical models of neutral thermospheric density (MSIS, DTM) and the observed densities is consistent with lognormal distribution, i.e. the logarithm of the ratio of the measurements to the predictions is approximately normally distributed. This experimental fact may be applied in modelling the neutral thermospheric density. bezdek@asu.cas.cz  相似文献   

6.
Gurdak JJ  McCray JE  Thyne G  Qi SL 《Ground water》2007,45(3):348-361
A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability.  相似文献   

7.
Cosmogenic nuclides have become an important tool in geomorphology; the concentration of such nuclides in minerals in an eroding surface is directly related to the exposure time and the erosion rate. In principle, measurement of the two nuclides 10Be and 26Al allows for the determination of both the erosion rate and the exposure age. In practice, due to a variety of factors such as the similar lifetimes of the two nuclides and the limits on measurement precision, this determination is often not possible. We propose a new approach to this problem, showing how to construct a joint probability distribution for the age and erosion rate by using the concentration of one (or two) nuclides measured at the surface. We explain the Bayesian approach to this problem; the construction of the prior is a crucial element of this Bayesian method, and we devote particular attention to this issue. By analyzing previously published data, we show how this method improves on the standard approach of computing a “model age” and “model erosion rate.”  相似文献   

8.
《Continental Shelf Research》2005,25(9):1053-1069
Predictions of nearshore depth evolution using process-based numerical simulation models contain inherent uncertainties owing to model structural deficiencies, measurement errors, and parameter uncertainty. This paper quantifies the parameter-induced predictive uncertainty of the cross-shore depth evolution model Unibest-TC by applying the Bayesian Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology to modelling depth evolution at Egmond aan Zee (Netherlands). This methodology works with multiple sets of parameter values sampled uniformly in feasible parameter space and assigns a likelihood value to each parameter set. Acceptable simulations (i.e., based on parameter sets with a nonzero likelihood) were found for a wide range of parameter values owing to parameter interdependence and insensitivity. The 95% uncertainty prediction interval of bed levels after the 33 days prediction period was largest (0.5–1 m) near the sandbar crests that characterize the Egmond depth profile, reducing to near-zero values in the sandbar troughs and the offshore area. The prediction interval built up during storms (when sediment transport rates are largest) and remained the same or even reduced slightly during less-energetic conditions. The prediction uncertainty ranges bracket the observations near the inner-bar crest, its seaward flank, and at the seaward flank of the outer bar, suggesting that elsewhere model structural errors (and, potentially, measurement errors) dominate over parameter errors. The interdependence and the non-Gaussian marginal posterior distribution functions of the free model parameters cast doubt on the ability of commonly applied multivariate normal distribution functions to estimate parameter uncertainty.  相似文献   

9.
A field test and analysis method has been developed to estimate the vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivity in shallow unconsolidated aquifers. The field method uses fluid injection ports and pressure transducers in a hollow auger that measure the hydraulic head outside the auger at several distances from the injection point. A constant injection rate is maintained for a duration time sufficient for the system to become steady state. Exploiting the analogy between electrical resistivity in geophysics and hydraulic flow two methods are used to estimate conductivity with depth: a half-space model based on spherical flow from a point injection at each measurement site, and a one-dimensional inversion of an entire dataset.

The injection methodology, conducted in three separate drilling operations, was investigated for repeatability, reproducibility, linearity, and for different injection sources. Repeatability tests, conducted at 10 levels, demonstrated standard deviations of generally less than 10%. Reproducibility tests conducted in three, closely spaced drilling operations generally showed a standard deviation of less than 20%, which is probably due to lateral variations in hydraulic conductivity. Linearity tests, made to determine dependency on flow rates, showed no indication of a flow rate bias. In order to obtain estimates of the hydraulic conductivity by an independent means, a series of measurements were made by injecting water through screens installed at two separate depths in a monitoring pipe near the measurement site. These estimates differed from the corresponding estimates obtained by injection in the hollow auger by a factor of less than 3.5, which can be attributed to variations in geology and the inaccurate estimates of the distance between the measurement and the injection sites at depth.  相似文献   


10.
The Lake Suigetsu sediment has been recognised for its potential to create a wholly terrestrial (i.e. non-reservoir-corrected) 14C calibration dataset, as it exhibits annual laminations (varves) for much of its depth and is rich in terrestrial leaf fossils, providing a record of atmospheric radiocarbon. Microscopic analysis revealed that the varve record is curtailed due to the incomplete formation or preservation of annual laminae, necessitating interpolation. The program for varve interpolation presented here analyses the seasonal layer distribution and automatically derives a sedimentation rate estimate, which is the basis for interpolation, and applies it to complement the original varve count. As the interpolation is automated it largely avoids subjectivity, which manual interpolation approaches often suffer from. Application to the Late Glacial chronology from Lake Suigetsu demonstrates the implementation and the limits of the method. To evaluate the reliability of the technique, the interpolation result is compared with the 14C chronology from Lake Suigetsu, calibrated with the tree-ring derived section of the IntCal09 calibration curve. The comparison shows that the accuracy of the interpolation result is well within the 68.2% probability range of the calibrated 14C dates and that it is therefore suitable for calibration beyond the present tree-ring limit.  相似文献   

11.
On two short sediment cores from Lake Łazduny (northeastern Poland) different methods for age estimation were applied including varve counting, 210Pb, 137Cs and OSL dating. The investigated sediment consists of finely laminated, organic-rich calcareous gyttja interrupted by a sand layer. For 210Pb we tested the CFCS, CIC, CRS and SIT models and compared the results with the established varve chronology and the 137Cs distribution. The total 210Pb activity distribution is consistent between cores and shows a regular decrease with depth. However, the total inventory of unsupported 210Pb was significantly different and indicates varying rates of sediment focusing. Our results show that all 210Pb dating models used in this study produced different results, while the SIT model performed best in comparison with varve counts and 137Cs peaks. The CFCS model produced a realistic age-depth trend but obtained ages were too old compared to the varve time scale. The age estimates provided by the CRS model were too old as well with an increasing offset downcore and the CIC model failed completely by producing an unrealistic chronology with age inversions. This confirms that only systematic testing of different 210Pb dating models and routine validation using independent time markers produces reliable 210Pb chronologies. OSL dating of two samples from the sand layer provided much too old results which indicate incomplete bleaching during deposition of the analyzed quartz grains. This multiple dating approach demonstrates the considerable potential but also potential pitfalls of dating such young sediments.  相似文献   

12.
The goals of this study were to map the spatial distribution of sediment production and to estimate the probability of this production at the waterline based on a high potential of silting. The RUSLE-GIS model and Monte Carlo simulation were used. A sensitivity analysis of stochastic factors was performed by calculating the simple correlation coefficient. This procedure was applied to the Estrada Nova catchment, located in the city of Belém, northern Brazil, which has been subject to channel improvements and the construction of a detention basin. The results indicate that, following the urbanization and drainage improvements, there was a reduction in the annual sediment production probability, which is consistent with the dynamics in land use. The erodibility was the most sensitive factor in the sedimentation estimates. The methodology was considered an alternative to estimate sediment production in an urban catchment.  相似文献   

13.
本文收集了733个四川地区的实测钻孔数据,从中筛选出深度大于30m的268个钻孔剖面资料。分别获得了10m、15m、20m、25m和28m不同深度处的平均剪切波速 与 的对数线性相关关系。同时还与Boore（2004）的结果做了对比分析,比较了采用常数外推法和对数线性外推法得到的不同深度处剪切波速的残差分布。结果表明,不同深度处剪切波速 与 的对数相关关系可能具有一定的区域性特征,本文得到的对数关系更适合四川地区。对数线性外推法与常数外推法相比,前者的系统偏差更小;随着深度的增加,两种方法的外推误差均逐渐减小,但常数外推法普遍低估了 值;当深度较浅时,低估的情况更为明显。本文的研究结果为利用大量的不足30m的钻孔资料估计 值提供了参考。  相似文献   

14.
This paper presents a new inversion method for the interpretation of 2D magnetic anomaly data, which uses the combination of the analytic signal and its total gradient to estimate the depth and the nature (structural index) of an isolated magnetic source. However, our proposed method is sensitive to noise. In order to lower the effect of noise, we apply upward continuation technique to smooth the anomaly. Tests on synthetic noise-free and noise corrupted magnetic data show that the new method can successfully estimate the depth and the nature of the causative source. The practical application of the technique is applied to measured magnetic anomaly data from Jurh area, northeast China, and the inversion results are in agreement with the inversion results from Euler deconvolution of the analytic signal.  相似文献   

15.
基于自适应遗传算法的MRS-TEM联合反演方法研究   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文
地面磁共振法(MRS)因具有定性、定量分析地下水能力,而备受关注.传统磁共振地层含水量反演多采用均匀半空间模型,忽略电阻率分布信息对结果的影响.针对这一问题,本文基于多层电介质中磁共振响应理论,提出MRS与瞬变电磁(TEM)联合反演方法,通过电阻率分布信息对含水量反演过程的实时修正,提高了解释结果的准确度.反演算法采用自适应遗传算法(AGA)进行,基于繁殖规则,动态调整交叉概率和变异概率,解决了标准遗传算法易未成熟收敛而难以得到全局最优解问题.模型数据表明,含噪10%情况下,联合反演仍能较准确地反映地下含水单元模型结构,对比MRS单独反演优势明显.同时,内蒙古白旗野外观测数据联合反演结果与钻井资料基本一致,充分验证了AGA反演算法的实用性及MRS-TEM联合反演的实际意义.  相似文献   

16.
S. Zou  A. Parr 《Ground water》1995,33(2):319-325
The state-space estimation technique presented herein provides a method for obtaining optimal estimates of concentrations for two-dimensional plumes in ground water. The concentration of a plume was defined as the state variable. The technique uses the Kalman filter and involves combining two independent estimates of plume concentrations. One estimate is called the process modeling data and the other is called the “measurement” data. The process modeling data is obtained from a numerical model. The “measurement” data is obtained from field measurements; however, for illustration in this paper it was generated by a different numerical model than the one used to obtain the process modeling data. The state-space technique produces a distribution of contaminant concentrations that is more accurate than either of the distributions generated by the process modeling or the “measurement” data. An example is presented to show that the technique produces significant improvements in the prediction of plume concentration distributions.  相似文献   

17.
There are many examples of exposed or buried rock surfaces whose age is of interest to geologists and archaeologists. Luminescence dating is a well-established method of absolute chronology which has been successfully applied to a wide range of fine-grained sediments from hundreds of years to several hundred thousand years. Optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) has been recently proposed as a new method to date these rock surfaces (Laskariset al., 2011; Sohbatiet al., 2012a; Chapotet al., 2012; Pedersonet al., 2014; Sohbatiet al., 2015; Freieslebenet al., 2015). The basic principle is that luminescence signal of rock surface will soon decay when the rock is exposed to sunlight. When the rock surface is turned to be buried side, the OSL signal begins to accumulate again. With the variation of residual luminescence with depth, it is possible to estimate exposure and burial history of the rock. This article describes briefly the different luminescence dating methods for rock surfaces, its progress, application examples and present problems. For instance, Sohbatiet al. (2011) studied the depth dependence of the bleaching of the IRSL signal from granitic rocks, Laskaris and Liritzis (2011) proposed a mathematical function to describe the attenuation of daylight into rock surfaces, Sohbatiet al. (2012a) developed their model to include the environmental dose rate, Sohbatiet al. (2012b) overcame the problem of parameter estimation by using a known-age road-cut sample for calibration, Sohbatiet al. (2012c) further developed the OSL surface exposure dating model by including the simultaneous effect of daylight bleaching and environmental dose rate, and so on. These studies indicate that OSL dating method for rock surface can be applied widely to studies of geological and geomorphological evolution, archeology and Quaternary tectonic activity.  相似文献   

18.
引入两个负指数型差值函数,估计降雨量的概率分布,以此描述流域降雨空间变异性问题.将降雨量空间统计分布与垂向混合产流模型耦合进行产流量计算,即对地表径流,采用超渗产流模式,根据降雨与土壤下渗能力的联合分布推求其空间分布;对地面以下径流,采用蓄满产流模式,以地表渗入量的均值作为输入,进行简化处理以提高其实用性;最终推导出总产流量概率分布函数计算公式.将流域概化成一个线性水库,并根据随机微分方程理论,推导任一计算时段洪水流量的概率分布,从而构建了一个完整的随机产汇流模型.以淮河支流黄泥庄流域为例进行应用研究,结果表明,该模型可提供洪水过程的概率预报,可用于防洪风险分析,若以概率分布的期望值作为确定性预报,亦具有较高精度.  相似文献   

19.
The concept of Tsallis entropy was applied to model the probability distribution functions for the shear stress magnitudes in circular channels (with filling ratios of 0.506, 0.666, 0.826), circular with flat bed (filling ratios of 0.333, 0.666), rectangular channel (1.34, 2, 3.94, 7.37 aspect ratios) and compound channel (with relative depths of 0.324, 0.46). The equation for the shear stress distribution was obtained according to the entropy maximization principle, and is able to estimate the shear stress distribution as much on the walls as the channel bed. The approach is also compared with the predictions obtained based on the Shannon entropy concept. By comparing the two prediction models, this study highlights the application of Tsallis entropy to estimate the shear stress distribution of open channels. Although the results of the two models are similar in the circular cross-section, the differences between them are more significant in circular with flat bed and rectangular channels. For a wide range of filling ratio values, experimental data are used to illustrate the accuracy and reliability of the proposed model.  相似文献   

20.
With increasing urbanization and agricultural expansion, large tracts of wetlands have been either disturbed or converted to other uses. To protect wetlands, accurate distribution maps are needed. However, because of the dramatic diversity of wetlands and difficulties in field work, wetland mapping on a large spatial scale is very difficult to do. Until recently there were only a few high resolution global wetland distribution datasets developed for wetland protection and restoration. In this paper, we used hydrologic and climatic variables in combination with Compound Topographic Index(CTI) data in modeling the average annual water table depth at 30 arc-second grids over the continental areas of the world except for Antarctica. The water table depth data were modeled without considering influences of anthropogenic activities. We adopted a relationship between potential wetland distribution and water table depth to develop the global wetland suitability distribution dataset. The modeling results showed that the total area of global wetland reached 3.316×107 km2. Remote-sensing-based validation based on a compilation of wetland areas from multiple sources indicates that the overall accuracy of our product is 83.7%. This result can be used as the basis for mapping the actual global wetland distribution. Because the modeling process did not account for the impact of anthropogenic water management such as irrigation and reservoir construction over suitable wetland areas, our result represents the upper bound of wetland areas when compared with some other global wetland datasets. Our method requires relatively fewer datasets and has a higher accuracy than a recently developed global wetland dataset.  相似文献   

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