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1.
Land use and land-cover change (LUCC) is mainly a consequence of human activities such as road network development. In Thailand, the explicit objective of road network development has been to foster economic and social development. The extent of change in roads and land-cover change in Lop Buri between 1989-2006 is analyzed. We hypothesized that road development is a key driver of land-cover change and will cause, substantial changes in areas of forest cover, cultivated food and cash crops. We used land-cover classifications of Landsat imagery and resultant class trajectories to measure change. We then analyzed the relationships between roads, land-cover types, and land-cover trajectories. Overall, cash crops increased while forest and food crops declined between 1989-2006. The relationships between distance to roads and land- cover trajectories indicate that as the distance to roads increase, there are fewer changes in LUCC. The results suggest that in this case study, an increase in road network contributes to an increase in upland crops. In turn, the increase in upland crop production is one of the factors linked to economic development.  相似文献   

2.
This article provides an analysis of a wetland site in southern Illinois from presettlement to the present. The study area is part of the Cache River‐Cypress Creek Wetland, which has international importance, as recognized by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. Land‐cover data for 1807, 1938, and 1993 were created and analyzed with a geographic information system (GIS). Land‐use change by topographic setting (uplands, transitional, and bottomlands) and soil productivity was quantified and studied. Interviews with local experts informed this analysis. Results illustrate the complexity of environmental change and its driving forces. First, notable forest and swamp acreage was converted to cropland between 1807 and 1938 and, to a lesser degree, from 1938 to 1993. Second, there were land‐use variations by topographic region. Between 1807 and 1938, the largest transformation occurred in the uplands, with substantial acreage converted from forest to cropland. Between 1938 and 1993, however, agriculture decreased in the upland areas as hilly areas reverted to forest cover. At the same time, agriculture expanded in the bottomlands as this land was drained for farming. Third, there are interesting patterns within these categories of land‐use change, as soil productivity is an indicator of what lands were taken out of cropland and converted back to grassland and forest.  相似文献   

3.
During the past 50 years forests have recolonized extensive areas of Puerto Rico. Between 1950 and 1990 forest cover increased from 9% to 37% of the island's land area. In proportional terms more land has reverted to forest in Puerto Rico than anywhere else on earth during the second half of the twentieth century. This paper explores the geography of this process by matching changes in land cover with the characteristics of the land and communities in Puerto Rico. The reversion of agricultural lands to forest occurred most frequently in humid, upland, coffee‐growing regions characterized by heavy out‐migration and populations of smallholders who earned some of their income from off‐farm sources. These findings suggest that changes in non‐farm labor markets, as well as changes in the political economy of agriculture, have important impacts on the prospects for converting agricultural lands into forests.  相似文献   

4.
Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 106(2): 103–114, 2006

Periods characterized by agricultural change and transitions are often associated with insecurity and vulnerability regarding food production and food supplies. Forests and forest products tend to play an important buffer role during the process of change and uncertainty, where forest and fallows provide food products or income that people can temporarily fall back on. In the upland village of Que in North Central Vietnam, several different drivers are currently changing land use and land cover. The Forest Land Allocation policy, implemented in 1998, is one of the major driving forces, allocating farmers a reduced area of land for shifting cultivation in order to prevent any further deforestation and land degradation. However, the reduction in agricultural land set aside for shifting cultivation has lead to a severe decrease in hill rice production. The land use system is in a transition phase—from a conventional shifting cultivation system to a composite swiddening system. The area under shifting cultivation has been reduced, and the system has been intensified via the introduction of paddy rice cultivation, increased livestock rearing and commercial exploitation of non-timber forest products (NTFPs). Yet, the current transformation of the system has resulted in a drastic reduction in overall rice production. Thus, the collection and selling of NTFPs such as bamboo shoots, broom grass and pherynium leaves seem to prevent severe shortage of food since farmers are able to purchase food products with the money generated from the selling of NTFPs.  相似文献   

5.
土地利用/ 土地覆被变化(LUCC) 是当前研究全球变化的重要内容, 而区域土地利用 格局模拟是LUCC 研究的核心内容之一。以张家界市永定区为研究单元, 根据由2005 年土地 利用现状图和数字高程模型数据源得到的土地利用、地形、河流以及道路等空间数据, 对区 域土地利用类型空间格局的空间自相关性特征进行了建模研究, 并通过在传统Logistic 模型 中引入描述空间自相关性的成份, 实现了能够考虑自相关性因素的回归分析模型 (AutoLogistic 模型), 同时应用该模型对区域土地利用格局进行了模拟和分析。结果显示, 通 过与没有考虑空间自相关性的回归模型(传统Logistic 模型) 相比较, 该模型显示了更好的拟 合优度和更高的拟合准确率(耕地、林地、建设用地及未利用地的ROC 值分别从0.851、 0.913、0.877 和0.852 提高到0.893、0.940、0.907 和0.863)。研究结果说明了基于 AutoLogistic 方法的土地利用格局的相关性建模在一定意义上是合理的。同时研究结果也可以 为永定区及其相似地区的土地利用规划决策提供更为科学的依据。  相似文献   

6.
绿洲是干旱区独特的自然景观,是干旱区人们赖以生存和发展的物质基础。以敦煌绿洲为研究区域,基于Landsat TM长时间序列遥感图像,采用最佳指数因子研究最佳波段组合并进行图像分类,基于转移矩阵分析了绿洲主要覆被构成要素的转换特征,并基于土地利用类型动态度模型进行了动态变化分析。结果表明：1975-1998年间敦煌绿洲面积呈缓慢扩张趋势（平均0.35 km2/a）;1998-2006年间绿洲面积快速增大（平均3.88 km2/a）;2006-2011年间绿洲面积基本稳定。1990-2006年间水浇地和林地的面积总体呈增加趋势;2006-2011年,人工干预加速了土地利用方式的转变。  相似文献   

7.
林地是维护生态安全,实现区域可持续发展的根本基础资源。林地变化可能导致一些生态环境问题,包括土壤侵蚀,水资源短缺,干旱加剧以及生物多样性的丧失。本文以景观生态学和逻辑回归模型为基础,探讨了京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素。格局分析结果表明,林地景观破碎化正在下降和林地形状变得越来越规则。通过建立Logistic回归模型,这项研究旨在探讨这一区域1985-2000期间林地变化的重要变量。对于京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化而言,土壤有机质含量,坡度(5°),到最近村庄的距离以及人均国内生产总值是最重要的解释变量。研究表明,空间异质性会影响到林地变化的逻辑回归模型的可预测性。  相似文献   

8.
This article examines two key aspects of land‐cover change in the south of the Chocó region. First, it assesses and compares the local impact on forest condition of labor‐intensive and capital‐intensive commercial logging. Second, it assesses the regional significance and permanency of these changes. Studies of land‐cover change associated with commercial logging have focused almost exclusively on capital‐intensive extraction and have assumed that after logging, degraded forests are transformed into agricultural cover. This study shows that both capital‐ and labor‐intensive logging result in similar land‐cover changes (i.e., forest degradation) if the timber sought is the same. However, labor‐intensive loggers also seek timber species not sought by capital‐intensive loggers, and this impact is statistically different from the impact of the extraction of the first group of species. Results also show that only a small fraction (20–30 percent) of the area logged is later converted to agricultural cover types. The persistence of logged forests means that up to 20 percent of the remaining forest cover could correspond to forests with significant and lasting levels of degradation. Furthermore, the different production requirements for each group of species also mean that there is a spatial differentiation in the impact of logging in the region. Logged forests are arranged into two consecutive corridors on each side of access routes (e.g., rivers). The first corridor corresponds to a narrow (approximately 1‐km) band of high‐intensity degradation. The second, broader (approximately 2‐km) forest band, with lower levels of degradation, extends inland along first‐tier corridors. A key factor determining the permanency of this land‐cover pattern is the strong control local communities have over the land in the region. This limits the spread of patterns observed in other frontier areas, especially the conversion of logged forests into agricultural cover.  相似文献   

9.
谢花林  李波 《地理研究》2008,27(2):294-304
本文以农牧交错带的典型区域——内蒙古翁牛特旗为例,考虑土地利用变化过程的空间变量,建立了不同土地利用变化过程的logistic回归模型。结果表明:模型中转为耕地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离和农业气候区;转为草地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离、土壤表层有机质含量和到乡镇中心的距离;转为林地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离和海拔;空间异质性和土地利用变化过程的时间变量共同影响着使用logistic回归模型来解释土地利用变化驱动力的能力;通过对草地logistic回归模型的检验,得出空间统计模型能较好地揭示不同土地利用变化过程的主要驱动力及其作用机理。  相似文献   

10.
Africa's Albertine Rift region faces a juxtaposition of rapid human population growth and protected areas, making it one of the world's most vulnerable biodiversity hotspots. Using satellite-derived estimates of forest cover change, we examined national socioeconomic, demographic, agricultural production, and local demographic and geographic variables, to assess multilevel forces driving local forest cover loss and gain outside protected areas during the first decade of this century. Because the processes that drive forest cover loss and gain are expected to be different, and both are of interest, we constructed models of significant change in each direction. Although rates of forest cover change varied by country, national population change was the strongest driver of forest loss for all countries – with a population doubling predicted to cause 2.06% annual cover loss, while doubling tea production predicted to cause 1.90%. The rate of forest cover gain was associated positively with increased production of the local staple crop cassava, but negatively with local population density and meat production, suggesting production drivers at multiple levels affect reforestation. We found a small but significant decrease in loss rate as distance from protected areas increased, supporting studies suggesting higher rates of landscape change near protected areas. While local population density mitigated the rate of forest cover gain, loss was also correlated with lower local population density, an apparent paradox, but consistent with findings that larger scale forces outweigh local drivers of deforestation. This implicates demographic and market forces at national and international scales as critical drivers of change, calling into question the necessary scales of forest protection policy in this biodiversity hotspot. Using a satellite derived estimate of forest cover change for both loss and gain added a dynamic component to more traditionally static and unidirectional studies, significantly improving our understanding of landscape processes and drivers at work.  相似文献   

11.
Shifting cultivation is often blamed for deforestation in tropical upland areas. Based on a case study of three villages in northern Lao PDR, this paper combines household surveys with a remote sensing based analysis of forest cover, covering the period 1989–1999, in order to analyse changes in shifting cultivation practices and livelihood strategies and the impact of these on deforestation. Due to population pressure and relocation of villages, easily accessed land is increasingly scarce and fallow periods have been shortened during the 1990s. A net annual deforestation of about 1% was found in the area during the study period. This deforestation rate reflects shorter fallow periods in secondary forests rather than encroachment on mature forests, which are not used for cultivation by the farmers in the three villages. Farmers rate scarce labour as a major constraint on shifting cultivation; nonetheless, a tendency towards lower labour input with shorter fallow periods is observed, contradicting conventional intensification theory. Livelihoods are diversifying through the establishment of plantations, cultivation of wet rice and adoption of animal husbandry, but given the socio-economic conditions in the area, shifting cultivation is likely to remain the most suitable farming system in the near future.  相似文献   

12.
This study identified spatial patterns of forest change in Hoa Binh, Vietnam, from 2005 to 2017 by integrating Landsat data and Geographic Information System (GIS) data. A Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) model was adapted to analyse drivers of three types of forest change, including (i) deforestation and forest degradation, (ii) forest regrowth and (iii) plantation expansion. The results reveal that accessibility and local economic development were determinants of forest cover dynamics during the integration and globalization period and that increased population pressure and poverty were no longer the main factors in forest cover transition. Several key policies in this time period positively affected forest cover change, triggering private sector participation in developing the forest economy by including households and small and medium enterprises in particular. The findings of this study can provide learning points for the implementation of sustainable forest management policies in other Vietnamese provinces or in neighbouring countries. This research has provided an effective tool for visualizing human‐forest ecosystem interaction, and this tool can be applied to subsequent studies to determine causes of forest cover change at the provincial level in Vietnam.  相似文献   

13.
This study evaluates the dynamics and identifies the indirect biophysical and socio‐economic factors related to the recovery, degradation and deforestation of the tropical dry forest (TDF) cover in the municipality of Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, Mexico. Annual rates and transition matrices were determined to identify indirect factors; the cartographic information of 25 variables with shift points were overlaid and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) were applied. The change process with the greatest impact in TDF during the study period (1993–2011) was degradation, with 10468 ha degraded (12 per cent of the initial tropical cover); recovery of coverage was the second most important change process, with 4808 ha (5.5 per cent); and deforestation was the change process with the lowest impact, with a loss of 2800 ha (3.23 per cent). The net balance was negative, with a decrease (through land degradation and deforestation) of 8460 ha (9.75 per cent). The recovery of coverage was mainly associated with biophysical factors such as land suitability and accessibility to natural vegetation. On the other hand, deforestation and degradation of coverage were associated with both biophysical and socioeconomic factors such as land suitability, accessibility to natural vegetation, migration, marginalization, population pressure, economy, education and health. The findings of this study determined the spatial distribution of forest recovery, deforestation and degradation processes at a regional level, allowing for future researchers to focus their efforts at local and landscape levels. Also, the work allows for an approximation of the factors associated with the change processes studied, hence supporting the allocation of resources for the establishment of management, conservation, development and restoration strategies of tropical dry forests at the regional level.  相似文献   

14.
Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land use/cover change, and plays a key role in land use prediction and policy decision. Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, scenario simulation and landscape pattern analysis of land use change driven by socio-economic development and ecological protection policies were reported in Zhangjiakou city, a representative area of the Poverty Belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Using a CLUE-S model, along with socio-economic and geographic data, the land use simulation of four scenarios–namely, land use planning scenario, natural development scenario, ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario–were explored according to the actual conditions of Zhangjiakou city, and the landscape pattern characteristics under different land use scenarios were analyzed. The results revealed the following: (1) Farmland, grassland, water body and unused land decreased significantly during 1989–2010, with a decrease of 11.09%, 2.82%, 18.20% and 31.27%, respectively, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased over the same period, with an increase of 5.71%, 20.91% and 38.54%, respectively. The change rate and intensity of land use improved in general from 1989 to 2010. The integrated dynamic degree of land use increased from 2.21% during 1989–2000 to 3.96% during 2000–2010. (2) Land use changed significantly throughout 1989–2010. The total area that underwent land use change was 4759.14 km2, accounting for 12.53% of the study area. Land use transformation was characterized by grassland to forestland, and by farmland to forestland and grassland. (3) Under the land use planning scenario, farmland, grassland, water body and unused land shrank significantly, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased. Under the natural development scenario, construction land and forestland increased in 2020 compared with 2010, while farmland and unused land decreased. Under the ecological-oriented scenario, forestland increased dramatically, which mainly derived from farmland, grassland and unused land. Under the farmland protection scenario, farmland was well protected and stable, while construction land expansion was restricted. (4) The landscape patterns of the four scenarios in 2020, compared with those in 2010, were more reasonable. Under the land use planning scenario, the landscape pattern tended to be more optimized. The landscape became less fragmented and heterogeneous with the natural development scenarios. However, under the ecological- oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario, landscape was characterized by fragmentation, and spatial heterogeneity of landscape was significant. Spatial differences in landscape patterns in Zhangjiakou city also existed. (5) The spatial distribution of land use could be explained, to a large extent, by the driving factors, and the simulation results tallied with the local situations, which provided useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the area. The application of the combined Markov model, CLUE-S model and landscape metrics in Zhangjiakou city suggests that this methodology has the capacity to reflect the complex changes in land use at a scale of 300 m×300 m and can serve as a useful tool for analyzing complex land use driving factors.  相似文献   

15.
华北平原禹城市耕地变化与驱动力分析(英文)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Taking Yucheng, a typical agricultural county in Shandong Province as a case, this study applied Logistic regression models to spatially identify factors affecting farmland changes. Using two phases of high resolution imageries in 2001 and 2009, the study obtained the land use and farmland change data in 2001-2009. It was found that the farmland was reduced by 5.14% in the period, mainly due to the farmland conversion to forest land and built-up land, although part of forest land and unused land was converted to farmland. The results of Logistic regressions indicated that location, population growth and farmer income were main factors affecting the farmland conversion, while soil types and pro-curvature were main natural factors controlling the distribution of farmland changes. Regional differences and temporal-spatial variables of farmland changes affected fitting capability of the Logistic re-gression models. The ROC fitting test indicated that the Logistic regression models gave a good explanation of the regional land-use changes. Logistic regression analysis is a good tool to identify major factors affecting land use change by quantifying the contribution of each factor.  相似文献   

16.
土地利用/覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要问题,而海岸带则是该领域研究的热点区域。以三套土地利用/覆盖数据（MCD12Q1、CCI-LC和GlobeLand30）为基础,采用基于一致性分析和模糊集合理论的数据融合方法,获取2000年和2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖分类信息,进而分析土地利用/覆盖变化特征及驱动因素。结果表明：十年间亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化方式主要以耕地萎缩和林地扩张为主,其次是湿地扩张,再次是草地和裸地萎缩,最后是灌木地和人造地表扩张;土地利用/覆盖类型之间的相互转换面积较小,仅占研究区总面积的4.22%,其中分布面积占优势的变化类型为耕地–林地–草地相互转换、灌木地–裸地相互转换、林地转为湿地以及林地转为灌木地等。地形因素、气候分异等自然驱动力深刻影响着土地利用/覆盖变化的宏观格局,而人口压力增大、经济高速发展、政策的颁布与实施等人文驱动力则是推动十年间亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化的主要原因。  相似文献   

17.
Tourism is Nepal's largest industry, giving people in rural areas an alternative to subsistence farming. Tourism can have an impact on the forest cover of a region as trees provide firewood for cooking and heating and timber for building accommodation. In 1986 the Annapurna Conservation Area Project was established to ensure that tourism was managed more sustainably, which includes minimising its impact on the forest cover. This study assesses the impacts of tourism on the forest cover in the Annapurna region by comparing Landsat images from 1999 to 2011. This was achieved through spectral classification of different land cover and by assessing the change in forest cover in relation to increasing distances from tourism villages. A major problem with remote sensing in mountainous regions such as Nepal is shadow caused by the relief. This issue was addressed by only assessing areas which were free from shadow, which in effect meant a sample was used rather than the whole study region. The results indicate that there has been an 8 percent reduction in overall forest extent, but this change varies by region. In the northern, drier regions there has been a net increase in forest cover, while in the southern regions there has been a net reduction in forests. The influence of tourism facilities on forest is also variable. Around each of the tourism villages sampled there was a general trend of forest removal decreasing as the distance from each village increased, which indicates tourism does have a negative impact on forests. However, there was an opposite trend in the northern villages that were well inside the conservation area.  相似文献   

18.
Global and regional environmental changes such as land use and climate change have significantly integrated and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function and succession processes of forest ecosystems. In order to adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and integrated effects. In this study, we proposed a framework by using coupling models to gain a better understanding of the complex ecological processes. We combined an agent-based model for land use and land cover change (ABM/LUCC), an ecosystem process model (PnET-II), and a forest dynamic landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the change of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) which was driven by land use and climate change factors for the period of 2010–2050 in Taihe County of southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. We conducted a series of land use and climate change scenarios to compare the differences in forest AGB. The results show that: (1) land use, including town expansion, deforestation and forest conversion and climate change are likely to influence forest AGB in the near future in Taihe County. (2) Though climate change will make a good contribution to an increase in forest AGB, land use change can result in a rapid decrease in the forest AGB and play a vital role in the integrated simulation. The forest AGB under the integrated scenario decreased by 53.7% (RCP2.6 + land use), 57.2% (RCP4.5 + land use), and 56.9% (RCP8.5 + land use) by 2050, which is in comparison to the results under separate RCPs without land use disturbance. (3) The framework can offer a coupled method to better understand the complex and interactive ecological processes, which may provide some supports for adapting to land use and climate change, improving and optimizing plantation structure and function, and developing measures for sustainable forest management.  相似文献   

19.
Land cover change is one of the major contributors to global change, but long-term, broad-scale, detailed and spatially explicit assessments of land cover change are largely missing, although the availability of historical maps in digital formats is increasing. The problem often lies in efficiency of analyses of historical maps for large areas. Our goal was to assess different methods to reconstruct land cover and land use from historical maps to identify a time-efficient and reliable method for broad-scale land cover change analysis. We compared two independent forest cover reconstruction methods: first, regular point sampling, and second, wall-to-wall mapping, and tested both methods for the Polish Carpathians (20,000 km2) for the 1860s, 1930s and 1970s. We compared the two methods in terms of their reliability for forest change analysis, relative to sampling error, point location and landscape context including local forest cover, area of the spatial reference unit and forest edge-to-core ratio. Our results showed that the point-based analysis overestimated forest cover in comparison to wall-to-wall mapping by 1–3%, depending on the mapping period. The reasons for the differences were mainly the backdating approach and map generalisation rather than the point grid position or sampling error. When we compared forest cover trajectories over time, we found that the point-based reconstruction captured forest cover dynamics with a comparable accuracy to the wall-to-wall mapping. More broadly, our assessment showed that historical maps can provide valuable data on long-term land cover trends, and that point-based sampling can be an efficient and accurate way to assess forest area and change trends. We suggest that our point-based approach could allow land cover mapping across much of Europe starting in the 1800s. Our findings are important because they suggest that land cover change, a key component of global change, can be assessed over large areas much further back in time than it is commonly done. This would allow to truly understand path dependencies, land use legacies, and historical drivers of land cover change.  相似文献   

20.
土地覆被主要表现为陆地表面的形态特性和动态变化特征,土地利用是其动态变化的外在驱动力,植被是土地覆被的“主要”而非唯一的组成部分,土地覆被也包含着它的功能特性。地表覆被物的光谱特征及其季节性变化规律是土地覆被的本质特征,也是土地覆被分类的基本依据之一;利用遥感资料所表达的地表覆被物特征值 (如以NDVI为指标的绿度值、始绿期、终绿期、波形、峰值、谷值等) 可以方便地对土地覆被分类标准进行量化处理;对于一些复杂的复合单元,应着重于它的组合 (包括组成成分和结构) 特性及其对地面过程的影响来赋予更确切的内涵。据此,构建了包含7个一级类别和20个二级类别的开放式 (open-end) 的鄱阳湖流域土地覆被分类系统,并且应用SPOT4-VEGETATION 的时序NDVI数据,对各类别的面积比重进行了分析,结果显示鄱阳湖流域的现状覆被主要由常绿覆被和作物-树-草混合覆被以及人工栽培植被 (作物) 等构成。  相似文献   

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