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1.
Do landslides follow landslides? Insights in path dependency from a multi-temporal landslide inventory 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jalal Samia Arnaud Temme Arnold Bregt Jakob Wallinga Fausto Guzzetti Francesca Ardizzone Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2017,14(2):547-558
Landslides are a major category of natural disasters, causing loss of lives, livelihoods and property. The critical roles played by triggering (such as extreme rainfall and earthquakes), and intrinsic factors (such as slope steepness, soil properties and lithology) have previously successfully been recognized and quantified using a variety of qualitative, quantitative and hybrid methods in a wide range of study sites. However, available data typically do not allow to investigate the effect that earlier landslides have on intrinsic factors and hence on follow-up landslides. Therefore, existing methods cannot account for the potentially complex susceptibility changes caused by landslide events. In this study, we used a substantially different alternative approach to shed light on the potential effect of earlier landslides using a multi-temporal dataset of landslide occurrence containing 17 time slices. Spatial overlap and the time interval between landslides play key roles in our work. We quantified the degree to which landslides preferentially occur in locations where landslides occurred previously, how long such an effect is noticeable, and how landslides are spatially associated over time. We also investigated whether overlap with previous landslides causes differences in landslide geometric properties. We found that overlap among landslides demonstrates a clear legacy effect (path dependency) that has influence on the landslide affected area. Landslides appear to cause greater susceptibility for follow-up landslides over a period of about 10 years. Follow-up landslides are on average larger and rounder than landslides that do not follow earlier slides. The effect of earlier landslides on follow-up landslides has implications for understanding of the landslides evolution and the assessment of landslide susceptibility. 相似文献
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Early Warning Systems (EWS) are efficient tools for preventing and mitigating the risks associated to landslides occurrence. In this paper, an integrated methodology for landslides’ analysis is presented and described. Such methodology is aimed at the creation of early warning systems and is based on the integration between a modern monitoring technique, such as the Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GBInSAR), along with advanced numerical modelling. The paper also shows the application of the proposed methodology to the case study of a rockslide in central Italy. The integration between monitoring data, thanks to a GBInSAR survey and advanced numerical simulations with the combined Finite-Discrete Elements Method (FDEM), allowed for the definition of a set of surface velocity thresholds to be adopted for the long-term monitoring of the landslide and for the creation of an effective EWS. 相似文献
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Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Alfonso Mariano Ramos-Cañón Luis Felipe Prada-Sarmiento Mario Germán Trujillo-Vela Juan Pablo Macías Ana Carolina Santos-R 《Landslides》2016,13(4):671-681
Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km2 area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I MAP, normalized daily rainfall R MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis. 相似文献
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Landslides as secondary seismic effects are causing some patterns of soil failure that are often considered among the most destructive ones. In fact, the impact from triggered landslides has sometimes exceeded damage directly related to strong shaking and fault rupture. The objective of this research study is landslide hazard and risk assessment considering different water saturation and earthquake scenarios, for a selected area in a sub-urban hilly part of Skopje—the capital of Macedonia. The final product is represented by digital maps of expected permanent displacements for a defined earthquake scenario, in different water saturation conditions of the instable soil layer. Qualitative landslide risk assessment is performed taking into consideration the exposure map of the habitants and local road of the area. As to the target area, it can be concluded that it has the potential for instability that, under certain scenarios, could result in economic and social damage (vulnerability of individual houses, vulnerability of infrastructure and alike). The results from this study referring to potentially affected population and infrastructure present solid base for preventive mitigation activities for reducing the consequences of geotechnical hazards in Skopje City associated with earthquakes. 相似文献
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Mountain landslide has been an environmental geological problem and occurs frequently in China, especially in the karst region
of Guizhou Province, Southwest China. The data of karst mountain landslide are collected and analysed, which occurred in the
period of 1940–2002. The collection includes 321 events in the karst region of Guizhou Province. The characteristics of mountain
landslides may be classified as two types, namely natural mountain landslides (287 events) and the other induced by human
activities (34 events). The results indicate that natural mountain landslide causes especially high damage and is still the
main type of natural hazard in the study area owing to the extremely fragile karst geological environment. 相似文献
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The capital city of Honduras, Tegucigalpa, suffers from the occurrence of destructive landslides on a yearly basis. During the rainy season, damages to infrastructure as well as injuries, casualties and homeless individuals resulting from landslides are reported in the press. This paper presents the development of a database for rainfall-induced landslides for the period 1980–2005, based on the news reported by two local newspapers. The editions comprehended during the study period have been scrutinized, and articles focusing on landslides, tropical storms, hurricanes, floods and vulnerability of the city have been collected. The interpretation of these archives has allowed the compilation of valuable data of approximately 400 landslides. The analyses of monthly and annual precipitation during the study period show how extreme rainfall events like Hurricane Mitch in October of 1998 have significantly contributed to the initiation of landslides. In addition, the assessment of the slums and neighborhoods affected by landslides during the study period reveals an evident link between the social and physical vulnerability of Tegucigalpa. In order to estimate the reliability of this press-based database, the set of landslides that have been reported as a result of Hurricane Mitch in the press archives has been compared with two inventories based on the interpretation of aerial photographs taken in 1999 and 2001. It is shown that the analysis of the landslide damage left after the hurricane can be enriched with the detailed temporal data provided in the archives and the precise location of these events determined by the aerial photographs. Despite the difficulties faced in the compilation of this database, a good comprehension of the temporal and spatial distribution of landslides in Tegucigalpa has been achieved. 相似文献
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Tanyaş Hakan Görüm Tolga Fadel Islam Yıldırım Cengiz Lombardo Luigi 《Landslides》2022,19(6):1405-1420
On November 14, 2016, the northeastern South Island of New Zealand was hit by the magnitude Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, which is characterized by the most complex rupturing mechanism ever recorded. The widespread landslides triggered by the earthquake make this event a great case study to revisit our current knowledge of earthquake-triggered landslides in terms of factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslides and the rapid assessment of geographic areas affected by widespread landsliding. Although the spatial and size distributions of landslides have already been investigated in the literature, a polygon-based co-seismic landslide inventory with landslide size information is still not available as of June 2021. To address this issue and leverage this large landslide event, we mapped 14,233 landslides over a total area of approximately 14,000 km2. We also identified 101 landslide dams and shared them all via an open-access repository. We examined the spatial distribution of co-seismic landslides in relation to lithologic units and seismic and morphometric characteristics. We analyzed the size statistics of these landslides in a comparative manner, by using the five largest co-seismic landslide inventories ever mapped (i.e., Chi-Chi, Denali, Wenchuan, Haiti, and Gorkha). We compared our inventory with respect to these five ones to answer the question of whether the landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake are less numerous and/or share size characteristics similar to those of other strong co-seismic landslide events. Our findings show that the spatial distribution of the Kaikōura landslide event is not significantly different from those belonging to other extreme landslide events, but the average landslide size generated by the Kaikōura earthquake is relatively larger compared to some other large earthquakes (i.e., Wenchuan and Gorkha).
相似文献11.
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Vázquez R. Macías J. L. Alcalá-Reygosa J. Arce J. L. Jiménez-Haro A. Fernández S. Carlón T. Saucedo R. Sánchez-Núñez J. M. 《Natural Hazards》2022,110(2):1305-1337
Natural Hazards - Both climate and land-use changes can influence drought in different ways. Thus, to predict future drought conditions, hydrological simulations, as an ideal means, can be used to... 相似文献
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In contrast to the complex nature of slope failures, physically-based slope stability models rely on simplified representations of landslide geometry. Depending on the modelling approach, landslide geometry is reduced to a slope-parallel layer of infinite length and width (e.g., the infinite slope stability model), a concatenation of rigid bodies (e.g., Janbu’s model), or a 3D representation of the slope failure (e.g., Hovland’s model). In this paper, the applicability of four slope stability models is tested at four shallow landslide sites where information on soil material and landslide geometry is available. Soil samples were collected in the field for conducting respective laboratory tests. Landslide geometry was extracted from pre- and post-event digital terrain models derived from airborne laser scanning. Results for fully saturated conditions suggest that a more complex representation of landslide geometry leads to increasingly stable conditions as predicted by the respective models. Using the maximum landslide depth and the median slope angle of the sliding surfaces, the infinite slope stability model correctly predicts slope failures for all test sites. Applying a 2D model for the slope failures, only two test sites are predicted to fail while the two other remain stable. Based on 3D models, none of the slope failures are predicted correctly. The differing results may be explained by the stabilizing effects of cohesion in shallower parts of the landslides. These parts are better represented in models which include a more detailed landslide geometry. Hence, comparing the results of the applied models, the infinite slope stability model generally yields a lower factor of safety due to the overestimation of landslide depth and volume. This simple approach is considered feasible for computing a regional overview of slope stability. For the local scale, more detailed studies including comprehensive material sampling and testing as well as regolith depth measurements are necessary. 相似文献
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Susceptibility evaluation and mapping of China’s landslides based on multi-source data 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Liu Chun Li Weiyue Wu Hangbin Lu Ping Sang Kai Sun Weiwei Chen Wen Hong Yang Li Rongxing 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(3):1477-1495
Landslides are occurring more frequently in China under the conditions of extreme rainfall and changing climate, according to News reports. Landslide hazard assessment remains an international focus on disaster prevention and mitigation, and it is an important step for compiling and quantitatively characterizing landslide damages. This paper collected and analyzed the historical landslide events data of the past 60 years in China. Validated by the frequencies and distributions of landslides, nine key factors (lithology, convexity, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, soil property, vegetation coverage, flow, and fracture) are selected to construct landslide susceptibility (LS) empirical models by back-propagation artificial neural network method. By integrating landslide empirical models with surface multi-source geospatial and remote sensing data, this paper further performs a large-scale LS assessment throughout China. The resulting landslide hazard assessment map of China clearly illustrates the hot spots of the high landslide potential areas, mostly concentrated in the southwest. The study implements a complete framework of multi-source data collecting, processing, modeling, and synthesizing that fulfills the assessment of LS and provides a theoretical basis and practical guide for predicting and mitigating landslide disasters potentially throughout China.
相似文献15.
The Iwate–Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake in 2008, whose seismic intensity was M. 7.2 in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) scale,
induced innumerable landslides on the southern flank of Mt. Kurikoma volcano allocated along the Ou Backbone Range in Northeast
Japan. Most landslides are detected in a hanging wall side of the seismic fault. Those landslides are classified into five
types: deep-seated slide, debris slide, shallow debris slide, secondary shallow debris slide, and debris flow. Most common
landslide types induced by the earthquake are shallow debris slides and subsequent debris flows. They are intensively distributed
along steep gorges incising a volcanic skirt of Mt. Kurikoma, consisting of welded ignimbrite of the Pleistocene age. Debris
flows are also distributed even along gentle river floors in the southern lower flank of the volcano. The area of densely
distributed debris slides, shallow debris slides, and debris flows is concordant with that of severe seismic tremor. Thus,
genetic processes of landslides induced by the Iwate–Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake in 2008 are attributed to multiple causative
factors such as geology, topography, and seismic force. 相似文献
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Richard H. Guthrie Peter J. Deadman A. Raymond Cabrera Stephen G. Evans 《Landslides》2008,5(1):151-159
Landslide magnitude–frequency curves allow for the probabilistic characterization of regional landslide hazard. There is evidence
that landslides exhibit self-organized criticality including the tendency to follow a power law over part of the magnitude–frequency
distribution. Landslide distributions, however, also typically exhibit poor agreement with the power law at smaller sizes
in a flattening of the slope known as rollover. Understanding the basis for this difference is critical if we are to accurately
predict landslide hazard, risk or landscape denudation over large areas. One possible argument is that the magnitude–frequency
distribution is dominated by physiographic controls whereby landslides tend to a larger size, and larger landslides are landscape
limited according to a power law. We explore the physiographic argument using first a simple deterministic model and then
a cellular automata model for watersheds in coastal British Columbia. The results compare favorably to actual landslide data:
modeled landslides bifurcate at local elevation highs, deposit mass preferentially where the local slopes decrease, find routes
in confined valley or channel networks, and, when sufficiently large, overwhelm the local topography. The magnitude–frequency
distribution of both the actual landslides and the cellular automata model follow a power law for magnitudes higher than 10,000–20,000 m2 and show a flattening of the slope for smaller magnitudes. Based on the results of both models, we argue that magnitude–frequency
distributions, including both the rollover and the power law components, are a result of actual physiographic limitations
related to slope, slope distance, and the distribution of mass within landslides. The cellular automata model uses simple
empirically based rules that can be gathered for regions worldwide. 相似文献
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This paper presents the probabilistic analysis of landslides in spatially variable soil deposits, modeled by a stochastic framework which integrates the random field theory with generalized interpolation material point method(GIMP). Random fields are simulated using Cholesky matrix decomposition(CMD) method and Latin hypercube sampling(LHS) method, which represent material properties discretized into sets of random soil shear strength variables with statistical properties. The approach is applie... 相似文献
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Giant landslides on volcanic islands represent the largest formations which can be created in a single geological moment. Such landslides are distributed across the globe and have attracted a significant amount of research interest. Yet, no coherent attempts have been made to rationalise this information into a single online resource. This report summarises information about the structure of the recently created database of giant landslides on volcanic islands and presents some observations regarding the uncertainties inherent in the inventories. The database is being prepared over a 3-year period: the first year of the project has focused on rationalising information about giant landslides around the Atlantic Ocean while the second and third years will focus on rationalising information about such landslides from the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, respectively. Using this database, it should be possible to interrogate the spatial and temporal patterns of land sliding and landslide reactivation as well as to better assess the hazard and potential risks posed by giant landslides on volcanic islands. It will be particularly interesting to see if any evidence can be found for global triggers, such as eustatic or climatic changes, instead of the more commonly expounded local triggers. Ultimately, it is hoped that the database will benefit both the geoscientific community and those agencies responsible for civil defence. This work is part of the activities of the International Consortium on Landslides, namely its International Programme on Landslides (Project n. 212). The database is available from the giant landslides project webpage: https://www.irsm.cas.cz/ext/giantlandslides. 相似文献