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1.
中国不同气候区基于火险气象指数的火险概率模型 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
目前,森林火险气象指数被广泛用于世界多个国家和地区.本研究目的为,基于火险气象指数,在中国不同气候区建立火险概率模型.本文在中国4个气候区,使用1998-2007年的气象及火灾数据,以位置变量、月份、海拔、加拿大、美国及澳大利亚的气象火险指数、植被指数为自变量,建立了半参数化Logistic回归模型,分析各自变量与着火概率及大火发生概率之间的非线性关系.在不同区域,模型所选自变量组合不同,这与各气候区不同气象及植被状况有关.通过模型模拟数据和实际观测数据散点图、火险概率图、大面积火灾数量预报曲线图,分析了模型的预测能力.研究结果表明,在4个气候区,海拔和NDVI指数对着火概率影响显著.模拟可燃物含水量的气象火险指数由于反映出了植被的季节变化特征,在中国北部成为火险概率模型中的重要因子.模拟土壤有机层可燃物状况的火险气象指数在中国南部(东南、西南)成为火险概率模型的重要因子.在中国4个气候区,应用半参数化Logistic回归模型,可以有效模拟月时间尺度着火概率及大火发生概率,并为分析火险气象指数的预报能力提供了有效途径.本研究为进一步分析气候与火险之间的动态关系提供了理论基础. 相似文献
2.
Early dry-season prescribed fires can reduce fuel loads and thus prevent or mitigate the severity of late, high-intensity fires that spread widely in savanna ecosystems and damage woody plants. However, due to the lack of scientific knowledge regarding fuel characteristics and fire behavior in West African savannas, this practice can have effects that are diametrically opposed to those desired and may threaten the environment. There are three crucial parameters that must be considered when planning early-season prescribed fires: the ignition probability, the rate of spread of a fire and the amount of fuel consumed. In this study, 231 early-season prescribed fires were conducted in three savanna ecosystems in Senegal in order to characterize these three fundamental parameters.Logistic regression analyses revealed that fuel moisture content and relative humidity are good predictors of ignition probability. Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate the relationships between fire rate of spread, fuel consumption or fire intensity and fuel and weather conditions. Readily usable nomographs for forest managers were created based on those relationships that proved to be significant. Kruskal–Wallis tests performed to compare the observed rates of fire propagation with those predicted using BehavePlus showed no statistically significant difference between them. 相似文献
3.
时空因素对中国城市火灾态势变化的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于空间动态面板数据模型,对2000～2009年中国市域城市火灾数据进行分析,探讨经济发展与气候变化共同作用下时空因素对中国城市火灾态势变化的宏观影响。结果显示:气候变干促使火灾恶化,而经济发展扭转了这种趋势并促使火灾态势整体改善。时空因素对中国城市火灾态势变化具有显著影响,并可被引申为火灾同化效应、火灾惯性效应、火灾警示效应。火灾安全管理部门应该充分利用这些效应,采取积极措施改善火灾态势。本文补充了城市地理学在城市火灾领域的研究不足;将抽象的时空因素引申为具有实际物理含义的虚拟变量,对相关研究具有借鉴意义。 相似文献
4.
Tomàs Artés Andrés Cencerrado Ana Cortés Tomàs Margalef 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(3):594-611
AbstractForest fires are a kind of natural hazard with a high number of occurrences in southern European countries. To avoid major damages and to improve forest fire management, one can use forest fire spread simulators to predict fire behavior. When providing forest fire predictions, there are two main considerations: accuracy and computation time. In the context of natural hazards simulation, it is well known that part of the final forecast error comes from uncertainty in the input data. These data typically consist of a set of GIS files, which should be appropriately conflated. For this reason, several input data calibration methods have been developed by the scientific community. In this work, the Two-Stage calibration methodology, which has been shown to provide good results, is used. This calibration strategy is computationally intensive and time-consuming because it uses a Genetic Algorithm as a solution. Taking into account the aspect of urgency in forest fire spread prediction, it is necessary to maintain a balance between accuracy and the time needed to calibrate the input parameters. In order to take advantage of this technique, one must deal with the problem that some of the obtained solutions are impractical, since they involve simulation times that are too long, preventing the prediction system from being deployed at an operational level. A new method which finds the minimum resolution reduction for such long simulations, keeping accuracy loss to a known interval, is proposed. The proposed improvement is based on a time-aware core allocation policy that enables real-time forest fire spread forecasting. The final prediction system is a cyberinfrastructure, which enables forest fire spread prediction at real time. 相似文献
5.
The short-term (2 years) influence of fire burning with the wind (head fire) and against the wind (back fire) on the productivity (above-ground phytomass and litter) and fire behaviour were determined over seven growing seasons (1995/96–2001/02) in a semi-arid rangeland. The results showed that head fires had significantly greater flame height and rate of spread than back fires. Fire caused a decrease of 40.5% and 22.5% in basal cover for the first and second seasons after burning respectively. The seasonal above-ground phytomass production and litter were significantly decreased by fire over all growing seasons. Seasonal production losses due to fire varied between 225 and 430 kg ha−1. The relation between above-ground phytomass production loss due to fire, and two independent variables namely seasonal rainfall and fuel load (above-ground phytomass plus litter) before burning, were investigated. The multiple linear regression equations obtained for one (r=0.89) and 2 years (r=0.86) after a fire, can be used with great success in estimating seasonal production losses due to fire in semi-arid rangeland. 相似文献
6.
河南省火灾影响因素的空间分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
科学揭示火灾及其影响因素间的空间关系可为防火管理提供决策支持和有益启示。以往研究多在“空间平稳”的框架下进行火灾影响因素分析,但火灾和其可量化的影响因素往往自身均表现为“空间异质”,基于非空间的全局模型模拟可能会得出误导性甚至错误的结论。地理加权回归(GWR)可解释火灾及其影响因素间空间关系的局部变异。本文选取影响火灾分布的高程、坡度、居民地可达性、道路可达性、地表温度、归一化差植被指数和全球植被湿度指数作为解释变量,以是否火烧作为二元因变量,应用logistic GWR对河南省2002-2012年火季(9-10月)火灾的影响因素进行探索性分析。以多时态空间抽样取得训练样本,利用GWR 4.0软件开发一个logistic GWR火烧概率模型,从可靠性和区分能力两方面对模型性能分别进行内部检验和独立检验,以确保火灾影响因素分析的可靠和合理性。结果表明:①坡度、居民地可达性、温度、植被长势和植被湿度对河南省火灾的影响呈现显著空间变化,高程、道路可达性的影响空间变化不显著,低海拔、道路可达性差的区域更易发生火灾。②温度和植被长势对火灾影响省内全局显著,坡度、居民地可达性和植被湿度对火灾影响在省内仅部分区域显著。③河南省可划分为7种类型区,不同类型区的火灾影响因素相对重要性存在差异,应因地制宜制定防火策略和确定防火重点。④logistic GWR模型可用于分析火灾影响因素的局部空间变异,作为火险研究的一种有效工具。 相似文献
7.
地质灾害的非线性数据处理与建模技术 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
本文简略地介绍了几种地质灾害数据处理与建模的非线性方法,主要包括GMDH自组织建模技术、神经网络方法。GMDH是一种高阶非线性回归建模方法,它是以简单的二元二次回归方程为基础,通过"代复一代"的"生产"过程,客观、自动地求得实际资料的非线性模型。而神经网络则是用工程技术手段模拟生物神经网络的结构特征和功能特征的一类人工系统。与常规统计方法相比,神经网络最突出的优点为它是通过对网络的学习和训练,来掌握变量之间的非线性关系。因此,其处理复杂问题的能力更强大。实例检验效果表明,这些非线性数据处理与建模技术考虑了地质灾害问题的非线性特性,其比基于常规统计理论的数据处理方法的精度要高得多。 相似文献
8.
C.J. Cunningham 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》1984,4(1):5-27
Many regions of the world have climatic and vegetation regimes conducive to wildfires which damage urban property, but south eastern Australia is foremost in terms of such hazards. The Blue Mountains Region near Sydney has experienced 25 fire seasons since 1875 in 11 of which damage occurred to urban property. On four occasions since 1951 a single fire run has destroyed more than 50 dwellings. While fire cycles themselves are unpredictable, degree of fuel accumulation, annual and monthly rainfall and daily weather charts can signal various degrees of hazard and need for protective action to well informed householders. Knowledge of fire history in fire-prone regions is essential not only for professional firefighters but for all households. 相似文献
9.
Good, bad or 'necessary evil'? Reinterpreting the colonial burning experiments in the savanna landscapes of West Africa 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A simple ecological model underlies contemporary fire policy in many West African countries. The model holds that the timing (or seasonality) of annual savanna fires is a principal determinant of vegetation cover. The model's origin can be traced to the ideas held by influential colonial scientists who viewed anthropogenic fire as a prime force of regional environmental degradation. The main evidence in support of the model derives from the results of a series of long-term burning experiments carried out during last century. The experimental results have been repeatedly mapped onto fire policy often taking the form of a three-tiered model in which fire exclusion is considered the ultimate management objective, late dry-season fire is discouraged and early dry-season fire is allowed but only under specific, often state-controlled circumstances. This paper provides a critique of contemporary fire policy in the region and the fire ecology model on which it is based. Through an analysis of burn scars for the 2002–3 fire season generated from ETM+ imagery, the study documents the spatiotemporal pattern of burning for an area in southern Mali. It argues that current policy, which is informed by an a-spatial model, cannot adequately account for the critical pattern of burning that is characteristic of the region. A reinterpretation of the burning experiments is presented in light of four factors: empirical data; recent developments in patch-mosaic theory; historical evidence on the effects of fire suppression; and data on indigenous burning strategies, all of which suggest a need to reconsider current fire policy. 相似文献
10.
基于遗传算法自动获取CA模型的参数 总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10
本文提出了基于遗传算法来寻找CA模型最佳参数的方法。CA被越来越多地应用于城市和土地利用等复杂系统的动态模拟。CA模型中变量的参数值对模拟结果有非常重要的影响。如何获取理想的参数值是模型的关键。传统的逻辑回归模型运算简单,常常用来获取模型的参数值,要求解释变量间线性无关,所以获取的城市CA模型参数具有一定的局限性。遗传算法在参数优化组合、快速搜索参数值方面有很大的优势。本文利用遗传算法来自动获取优化的CA模型参数值,并获得了纠正后的CA模型。将该模型应用于东莞1988~2004年的城市发展的模拟中,得到了较好的效果。研究结果表明,遗传算法可以有效地自动获取CA模型的参数,其模拟的结果要比传统的逻辑回归校正的CA模型模拟精度高。 相似文献
11.
Wildfires cause different impacts, depending on the conditions and resilience level of the exposed communities. Wildfire occurrence in mainland Portugal was assessed with regard to socioeconomic and demographic parameters, to identify the most distinctive conditions of fire-affected areas, without implying the existence of causal relationships. The latest population and agriculture census data were used to retrieve conditions at the civil parish level, regarding demographic patterns, social and labor conditions, physical structures and agricultural activities. To identify differences between parishes, two groups were created with the communities that showed the highest and lowest 20% of wildfire incidence between 2007 and 2014, separately for density of fire events and for burned area. A stepwise approach based on classification trees and random Forest methods was applied to identify the best discriminant variables between the groups. First, irrelevant variables were removed by an interactive process based on misclassification rates. The second step used random Forest analysis to the remaining variables to evaluate their importance in distinguishing the groups. In the final step, cluster analysis was applied to test the correspondence between the clusters created with the selected variables and the initial groups. Results showed that parishes with higher fire density have higher population density, higher proportion of young and educated people, larger families and more overcrowded buildings. On the contrary, parishes with larger burned area are less populated, less attractive to foreigners, have a higher proportion of elderly people, more degraded housing conditions and agricultural activities, visible in the density of sheep and goat and pastures, are still relevant. The cluster analysis demonstrated a better performance of the model for wildfire density, revealing a strong association with socioeconomic dynamics with an agreement above 0.85, much higher than for burned areas which is 0.29. Overall, the spatial distribution of wildfire impacts is framed by societal settings and particular conditions must be further understood to improve the coping capacity of affected communities. 相似文献
12.
А. V. Volokitina 《Geography and Natural Resources》2017,38(1):46-51
The need to improve the assessment of the wildfire hazard in nature reserves is considered. It is suggested that the natural vegetation fuel map compiled by using a specially developed determinant of the types of main conductors of burning having regard to the period of a fire-hazardous season should be used for such purposes. The types of prime conductors of burning constitute the major group of vegetation fuels which determines the possibility of the spread of burning across the territory covered by vegetation. A classification of this group was carried out on the basis of long-term pyrological investigations in different regions of the RF. The vegetation fuel maps are presented for the Stolby nature reserve, separately for the spring (autumn) and summer seasons, because the southern-taiga forests are characterized by a predominance of the grass forest types with the involvement of gramineous species. The map of the current wildfire hazard is compiled and presented as an example, on the basis of the vegetation fuel map for the spring (autumn) periods of the season for drought class II according to the weather conditions. This map is representative of the possibility or impossibility of the spread of burning for each area in the nature reserve in the event that the source of fire (of anthropogenic or natural origins) appears. It is shown that vegetation fuel map can be compiled for any nature reserve by using the determinant of the types of prime conductors of burning. 相似文献
13.
The objective of this paper is to document the role of fire in shaping the landscape by identifying links between historical fire records and the current landscape indicating that fire favors certain land use/land cover (LULC) types. We geo-referenced fire records taken from 1922 to 2000 in Aitoloakarnania, the largest prefecture -in terms of surface area- of Greece and compared the past LULC classes where fires burned to the present landscape. The outputs indicated a shift of the historic fire ignition points from natural to agricultural-related LULC classes since a significant proportion of fire incidents that, according to the fire records, burnt natural vegetation units is currently located in agricultural landscape units. Additionally, a significant proportion of the fire-affected land cover classes retain their character thus supporting the argument that these classes, especially fire-prone or fire-resistant, have developed mechanisms to cope with fire. In such ecosystems the role of fire is to maintain rather than transform land cover classes.The findings of this research lead us to conclude that fire can be perceived as a long-term landscape modifier in the Mediterranean, although its effects may vary from region to region because of differences in regeneration patterns among the main land cover types, topographic constraints and local fire histories. Historical fire records extending back to the early 20th century proved to provide valuable information that can reveal interesting patterns of fire burning history and explain present land cover and use patterns. This knowledge, documented from historical records, can be used to develop fire management and land cover/land use management planning. 相似文献
14.
Influences of forest roads on the spatial patterns of human- and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ganapathy Narayanaraj Michael C. Wimberly 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):878-888
Understanding the spatial patterns of fire ignitions and fire sizes is essential for understanding fire regimes. Although previous studies have documented associations of human-caused fire ignitions with road corridors, less consideration has been given to understanding the multiple influences of roads on the fire regime at a broader landscape-scale. Therefore, we examined the difference between lightning- and human-caused fire ignitions in relation to forest road corridors and other anthropogenic and biophysical factors in the eastern Cascade Mountains of Washington State. We used geographical information systems and case-control logistic regression models to assess the relative importance of these explanatory variables that influence the locations of lightning versus human-caused ignitions.We found that human-caused ignitions were concentrated close to roads, in high road density areas, and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI). In contrast, lightning-caused ignitions were concentrated in low road density areas, away from WUI, and in low population density areas. Lightning-caused ignitions were also associated with fuels and climatic and topographic factors. A weak but significant relationship between lightning-caused fire and proximity to gravel roads may be related to fuels near roads or to bias in detection and reporting of lightning-caused fires near roads. Although most small fires occurred in roaded areas, they accounted for only a small proportion of the total burned area. In contrast, the large fires in roadless and wilderness areas accounted for most of the burned area. Thus, from the standpoint of the total area burned, the effect of forest roads on restricting fire size is likely greater than the impact of roads on increasing fire ignitions. The results of our study suggest that roads and their edge effect area should be more widely acknowledged as a unique type of landscape effect in fire research and management. 相似文献
15.
Paul A. Knapp 《The Professional geographer》1997,49(1):39-51
Understanding the environmental factors that influence spatial patterns of rangeland wildfires facilitates both fire and land management decisions. I used discriminant analysis to examine ignition frequency of lightning-initiated fires in grass-dominated communities in the Intermountain West between 1980 and 1994, then mapped regional fire frequencies to illustrate spatial patterns. Two canonical discriminant functions effectively separate groups of high, medium, and low ignition frequencies, based on climate conditions and fuel characteristics. Regions of highest frequency tend to have large elevational differences, more mesic climates, and less annual grass cover. Spatial patterns of ignition frequencies tend to reflect local topography, with higher frequencies west of 119° W. Expansion of exotic annual grasses throughout the region may be reducing differences in ignition frequency between regions of highest and lowest frequency. 相似文献
16.
Most previous research on areas with abundant rainfall shows that simulations using rainfall-runoff modes have a very high prediction accuracy and applicability when using a back-propagation(BP), feed-forward, multilayer perceptron artificial neural network(ANN). However, in runoff areas with relatively low rainfall or a dry climate, more studies are needed. In these areas—of which oasis-plain areas are a particularly good example—the existence and development of runoff depends largely on that which is generated from alpine regions. Quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of runoff simulation under climate change is the key to improving the utilization and management of water resources in arid areas. Therefore, in this context, three kinds of BP feed-forward, three-layer ANNs with similar structure were chosen as models in this paper.Taking the oasis–plain region traverse by the Qira River Basin in Xinjiang, China, as the research area, the monthly accumulated runoff of the Qira River in the next month was simulated and predicted. The results showed that the training precision of a compact wavelet neural network is low; but from the forecasting results, it could be concluded that the training algorithm can better reflect the whole law of samples. The traditional artificial neural network(TANN) model and radial basis-function neural network(RBFNN) model showed higher accuracy in the training and prediction stage. However, the TANN model, more sensitive to the selection of input variables, requires a large number of numerical simulations to determine the appropriate input variables and the number of hidden-layer neurons. Hence, The RBFNN model is more suitable for the study of such problems. And it can be extended to other similar research arid-oasis areas on the southern edge of the Kunlun Mountains and provides a reference for sustainable water-resource management of arid-oasis areas. 相似文献
17.
African Fire Cultures,Cattle Ranching,and Colonial Landscape Transformations in the Neotropics 
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下载免费PDF全文 Fire regimes emerge partly from human activities that reflect cultural‐ecological knowledge of the relationships among fire, vegetation, grazing, climate, and other variables, as well as social relations. More knowledge of such “fire cultures,” past and present, therefore remains necessary to better understand the causes and persistent consequences of landscape burning. In the neotropics, people have used fire for centuries to manage livestock pastures. Conventional wisdom has long posited that such practices derived solely from antecedent European and indigenous, Native American fire cultures. Analysis of accounts of rangeland burning from throughout the neotropics during colonial times, however, demonstrates that ranchers incorporated African fire cultures and that the timing of burning shifted from early during the dry season in the sixteenth century to late during the dry season by the nineteenth century. 相似文献
18.
论文基于2003—2014年水文资料,采用长短期记忆神经网络(Long-Short Term Memory,LSTM),构建了汉江上游安康站日径流预测模型,评价了不同输入条件下日径流预测的精度。结果表明：当预见期为1 d时,在仅以安康站前期日径流量作为输入的条件下,LSTM模型在训练期和检验期的效率系数分别达到0.68和0.74;如再将流域前期面雨量和上游石泉站前期日径流量加入LSTM网络作为输入变量,安康站日径流量预测效果将更好,训练期和检验期的效率系数最高可达到0.83和0.84,均方根误差也有显著削减,且对主要洪峰流量的预测能力也有一定提高。此外,LSTM可以有效避免过拟合等问题,具有较好的泛化性能。但当预见期从1 d延长至2、3 d时,LSTM的预测精度显著降低。 相似文献
19.
Hanbin Kwak Joachim Saborowski Si-Young Lee Myoung-Soo Won Kyo-Sang Koo 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1589-1602
Most forest fires in Korea are spatially concentrated in certain areas and are highly related to human activities. These site-specific characteristics of forest fires are analyzed by spatial regression analysis using the R-module generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), which can consider spatial autocorrelation. We examined the quantitative effect of topology, human accessibility, and forest cover without and with spatial autocorrelation. Under the assumption that slope, elevation, aspect, population density, distance from road, and forest cover are related to forest fire occurrence, the explanatory variables of each of these factors were prepared using a Geographic Information System-based process. First, we tried to test the influence of fixed effects on the occurrence of forest fires using a generalized linear model (GLM) with Poisson distribution. In addition, the overdispersion of the response data was also detected, and variogram analysis was performed using the standardized residuals of GLM. Second, GLMM was applied to consider the obvious residual autocorrelation structure. The fitted models were validated and compared using the multiple correlation and root mean square error (RMSE). Results showed that slope, elevation, aspect index, population density, and distance from road were significant factors capable of explaining the forest fire occurrence. Positive spatial autocorrelation was estimated up to a distance of 32 km. The kriging predictions based on GLMM were smoother than those of the GLM. Finally, a forest fire occurrence map was prepared using the results from both models. The fire risk decreases with increasing distance to areas with high population densities, and increasing elevation showed a suppressing effect on fire occurrence. Both variables are in accordance with the significance tests. 相似文献
20.
Relatively little is known about vegetation fire regimes in China. In this study, we investigated fire regime characteristics and their potential drivers, utilizing information extracted from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite. Twelve fire regime variables were selected and computed on a regular grid over all of China, using MODIS burned area and active fire data during the period 2001 to 2016, to identify fire incidence and its inter-annual variability, seasonality, intensity, fire size distribution and vegetation types affected by fire. The variables were normalized and clustered to define six fire regimes with distinctive fire attributes. Results show that 78.6% of the land in China was affected by fire during the study period. The barren or sparsely vegetated lands of western China are nearly fire-free. Active fires were observed in Central China, but area burned was not detectable from MODIS. Forest fires in northeastern China are relatively large, infrequent, with a short fire season that peaks in non-winter seasons and higher inter-annual variability, implying a high likelihood of accidental causes. In contrast, forest fires in southern China are relatively small, frequent, with a long fire season that peaks in non-summer seasons, and lower inter-annual variability, suggesting regular use as a land management tool. Low inter-annual variability and low fire intensity were associated with cropland fires, whereas grassland fires generally exhibit the opposite traits. We have also discussed the potential drivers of each fire regime characteristics. 相似文献