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1.
Numerical Experiment for the Impact of the Ozone Hole over Antarctica on the Global Climate 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
ＮｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌＥｘｐｅｒｉｍｅｎｔｆｏｒｔｈｅＩｍｐａｃｔｏｆｔｈｅＯｚｏｎｅＨｏｌｅｏｖｅｒＡｎｔａｒｃｔｉｃａｏｎｔｈｅＧｌｏｂａｌＣｌｉｍａｔｅ①ＣｈｅｎＹｕｅｊｕａｎ（陈月娟）,ＺｈａｎｇＨｏｎｇ（张弘）Ｄｅｐｔ．ｏｆＥａｒｔｈａｎｄＳｐ... 相似文献
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近十五年全球臭氧变化 总被引：16，自引：1，他引：15
利用卫星观测臭氧总含量ＴＯＭＳ（第７版）资料,在剔除季节变化后对全球６０°Ｓ－６０°Ｎ范围首先进行了沿纬度分布的线性趋势和周期分析。结果表明：自本世纪７０年代末,各纬带上的臭氧总量都呈下降趋势,强度随纬度升高而加剧,并发现总体上北半球臭氧的下降趋势较南半球更加明显;同时证实了准两年振荡是臭氧变化中除年周期外最显著的周期。并对臭氧变化中的准两年振荡作了遥相关分析;发现准两年振荡在强度和位相上基本呈纬向分布并主要表现出赤道对称的特征。１３５～１７０°Ｅ地区臭氧总量变化所表现出的不同于其它地区的原因可能是这一地区常年频繁出现的对流活动;而臭氧总量下降趋势表现出的北半球同纬度地区均大于南半球的南北半球差异可能是由两半球人类活动的差异引起 相似文献
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利用全大气气候通用模式(WACCM3)对政府间气候变化专门委员会排放情景特别报告中2001年到2099年A1B、A2、B1三种排放情景进行了模拟,分析了三种排放情景下青藏高原地区未来百年臭氧总量在夏季(6—8月)的变化趋势及引起该变化的可能机制。结果表明:在三种排放情景下未来百年夏季高原区臭氧总量均呈现增长趋势,其中A2情景下臭氧增长最快,B1情景下增长最慢,但相对于同纬度其他地区,高原区的臭氧总量增长较慢,即高原区臭氧谷加深。高原区高空污染物的减少以及局域Hadley环流的减弱是未来高原区臭氧总量增加的原因;而南亚高压的增强,以及与之相对应的辐散增强则可能是高原区臭氧谷继续加深的原因。 相似文献
5.
Recent studies demonstrate that the Antarctic Ozone Hole has important influences on Antarctic sea ice.While most of these works have focused on effects associated with atmospheric and oceanic dynamic processes caused by stratospheric ozone changes,here we show that stratospheric ozone-induced cloud radiative effects also play important roles in causing changes in Antarctic sea ice.Our simulations demonstrate that the recovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole causes decreases in clouds over Southern Hemisphere(SH)high latitudes and increases in clouds over the SH extratropics.The decrease in clouds leads to a reduction in downward infrared radiation,especially in austral autumn.This results in cooling of the Southern Ocean surface and increasing Antarctic sea ice.Surface cooling also involves ice-albedo feedback.Increasing sea ice reflects solar radiation and causes further cooling and more increases in Antarctic sea ice. 相似文献
6.
Beraki Asmerom F. Morioka Yushi Engelbrecht Francois A. Nonaka Masami Thatcher Marcus Kobo Nomkwezane Behera Swadhin 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(11):4775-4792
Climate Dynamics - The study examines the influence of external climate forcings, and atmosphere–ocean–sea–ice coupled interaction on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric... 相似文献
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The ability of five, global coupled climate models to simulate important atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Southern
Hemisphere for the period 1960–1999 is assessed. The circulation features examined are the Southern Hemisphere annular mode
(SAM), the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) and the quasi-stationary zonal wave 3 (ZW3). The models assessed are the National
Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation Mark 3, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model
ER (GISS-ER) and the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Center Coupled Model Version 3. The simulations were compared to the
NCAR–NCEP reanalyses. The models simulate a SAO which differs spatially from the observed over the Pacific and Indian oceans.
The amplitudes are too high over the southern ocean and too low over the midlatitudes. These differences are attributed to
a circumpolar trough which is too deep and extends too far north, and to the inability of the models to simulate the middle
to high latitude temperature gradient. The SAM is well-represented spatially by most models but there are important differences
which may influence the flow over the Pacific and in the region extending from the Ross to Weddell Seas. The observed trend
towards positive polarity in the SAM is apparent in the ensemble averages of the GISS-ER and CCSM3 simulations, suggesting
that the trend is due to external forcing by changes in the concentration of ozone and greenhouse gases. ZW3 is well-represented
by the models but the observed trend towards positive phases of ZW3 is not apparent in the simulations suggesting that the
observed trend may be due to natural variability, not external forcing. 相似文献
8.
OBSERVATIONAL STUDY OF MERIDIONAL VARIATION OF UV-B RADIATION DURING VOYAGES TO THE ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC REGIONS* 
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下载免费PDF全文 Based on 1999-2000 observations made by the first Arctic and sixteenth Antactic scientific voyages,a study is undertaken about the meridional surface UV-B (B band ultraviolet rays) variations in 75°N-70°S.It is mitigated as a function of latitudes and marked by lower radiation averaged over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than over the Southern Hemisphere (SH),with its daily course basically similar to that of total radiation.Around polar summer noon hours (localtime) and where ice albedo is maximum,the strongest UV-B irradiance on the surface perpendicular to sun's beams as found at equatorial latitudes is measured sometimes.In the areas near Zhongshan Station the increase of surface UV-B radiation shows a close relation to the decrease of ozone in the higher atmosphere but it has a less intimate relation with its concentration at ground. 相似文献
9.
平流层对对流层的作用是准确评估、预测对流层气候变化的一个重要方面。其中平流层成分尤其是臭氧的变化,可以改变平流层乃至对流层的辐射平衡,从而影响平流层、对流层的热动力过程。本文从辐射、动力2个角度介绍了平流层臭氧影响对流层气候变化的若干研究进展。平流层臭氧可以通过长短波辐射的方式对对流层大气造成辐射强迫,利用大气化学气候模式可以定量计算平流层臭氧变化引起的辐射强迫,但是辐射强迫的估算受模式中辐射传输模块本身缺陷的影响存在不确定性。动力方面,平流层臭氧变化产生的辐射效应可以改变温度的垂直和经向梯度,造成波折射指数的变化,进而影响平流层甚至对流层内波的折射与反射,通过上对流层下平流层区域内的波—流相互作用,对对流层气候产生影响。另外,南极臭氧损耗可通过大气环状模影响冬春季中高纬度对流层的天气气候,但是其影响的强度大小以及物理机制仍需进一步的确认。值得注意的是,北极平流层臭氧的变化与北半球中高纬度气候变化之间的关系相比南半球要更加复杂,需要更为深入的研究。 相似文献
10.
北极臭氧垂直分布和天气尺度变化的观测研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
北极地区臭氧对北极气候和环境系统起着重要作用。研究其分布和变化有助于了解北极的气候和环境及其对全球气候系统的影响,有助于气候和环境变化的数值预报。中国北极科学探测1999在北冰洋楚可奇海域成功的进行了大气臭氧观测。通过在中国“雪龙”号破冰船甲板上（于1999年8月18-24日在75°N,160°W附近处）释放大气臭氧探空仪获得了高分辨率的大气垂直结构和臭氧分布资料,可以进行大气尺度的大气臭氧变化研究。分析大气监测资料、TOMS臭氧总量资料和NCEP大气环流资料表明,大气臭氧总量随着对流层顶的低一高一低变化呈高一低一高的变化过程。研究还表明,大气柱的臭氧总量与13公里以下的大气臭氧含量关系密切,而在约20公里处的大气臭氧浓度最大值的变化与整个气柱臭氧的关系不大。500 hPa天气形势图上一个弱一强一弱的西南天气型造成的弱臭氧平流可能是这次臭氧变化的主要原因。 相似文献
11.
This study simulates the effective radiative forcing(ERF) of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol–climate coupled model, BCC AGCM2.0.1 CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI(Ozone Monitoring Instrument) satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric column ozone(TCO) was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere;and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m~(-2), thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36℃, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d~(-1)(the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%). The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4?C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator,with an increase of 0.5 mm d~(-1)near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about-0.6 mm d~(-1)near the middle of the Indian Ocean. 相似文献
12.
南半球臭氧变化气候效应的数值模拟 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
采用一个陆气耦合的９层谱模式模拟了南半球臭氧减少所产生的气候效应。数值试验结果表明,南半球臭氧的减少不仅对南半球温度场的 大气环流有影响,而且对北半球的温度场结构和大气环汉也有一定的影响。其气候效应具有全球性。南半球臭氧减少总体上可以使平流层中层以上大气降温、平流层低层增温、对流层顶附近降温。此外,在北半球冬半年期间,南半球臭氧的减少可使南北半球的副热带西风急流都减弱,极锋急流都增强;在北半球夏半 相似文献
13.
Ramiro I. Saurral Javier Garc&#;a-Serrano Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Leandro B. D&#;az Carolina S. Vera 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(9):3945-3958
The South Pacific Ocean is a key driver of climate variability within the Southern Hemisphere at different time scales. Previous studies have characterized the main mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in that region as a dipolar pattern of SST anomalies that cover subtropical and extratropical latitudes (the South Pacific Ocean Dipole, or SPOD), which is related to precipitation and temperature anomalies over several regions throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Using that relationship and the reported low predictive skill of precipitation anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere, this work explores the predictability and prediction skill of the SPOD in near-term climate hindcasts using a set of state-of-the-art forecast systems. Results show that predictability greatly benefits from initializing the hindcasts beyond the prescribed radiative forcing, and is modulated by known modes of climate variability, namely El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Furthermore, the models are capable of simulating the spatial pattern of the observed SPOD even without initialization, which suggests that the key dynamical processes are properly represented. However, the hindcast of the actual phase of the mode is only achieved when the forecast systems are initialized, pointing at SPOD variability to not be radiatively forced but probably internally generated. The comparison with the performance of an empirical prediction based on persistence suggests that initialization may provide skillful information for SST anomalies, outperforming damping processes, up to 2–3 years into the future. 相似文献
14.
Evaluation of the trend uncertainty in summer ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau in three reanalysis datasets 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Dong Guo Yucheng Su Xiuji Zhou Jianjun Xu Chunhua Shi Yu Liu Weiliang Li Zhenkun Li 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2017,31(2):431-437
Trend uncertainty in the ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau (OVTP) and the South Asian high (SAH) during 1979–2009 in ERA-Interim (interim reanalysis data from the ECMWF), JRA-55 (55-yr reanalysis data from the Japan Meteorological Agency), and NCEP-CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) datasets was evaluated. The results showed that the NCEP-CFSR OVTP became strong in the summers of 1979–2009, whereas it became weak according to ERA-Interim and JRA-55. Satellite data merged with TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) agreed with the OVTP trend of NCEP-CFSR. The OVTP strengthening in NCEP-CFSR may have been caused by SAH intensification, a rising tropopause, and increasing ozone over non-TP (non-Tibetan Plateau) areas (27°–37°N, < 75°E and > 105°E). Analogously, the OVTP weakening in ERA-Interim and JRA-55 may have been affected by weakening SAH, descending tropopause, and decreasing non-TP ozone. 相似文献
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滇南冰雹的预报预警方法研究 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
利用普洱市探空资料、CIND3830-CC新一代天气雷达资料、地面观测资料,对2004—2011年滇南普洱、西双版纳冰雹天气过程进行统计分析,总结出冰雹4个预报指标:(1)当单体回波满足冰雹云的初始特征和发展阶段特征时,可预报未来出现冰雹的可能较大,预报提前60 min以内;(2)当回波的组合反射率≥55 dBz、宽度≥12.0 km、梯度≥15 dBz·km~(-1)、H_(45 dBz)≥7.5 km、2—5月H_(45 dBz)-H_0≥3.1 km且H_(45 dBz)-H_(-20)≥-0.5 km、6-8月H_(45 dBz)-H_0≥2.0 km且H_(45 dBz)-H_(-20)≥-1.2km、VIL≥30 kg·m~(-2)、D_(VIL)≥3.0 g·m~(-3)时,预报有冰雹发生,预报提前12~102 min;(3)当回波具有弱切变特征、45 dBz回波顶高≥7.5 km、2—5月H_(45 dBz)-H_0≥3.1 km且H_(45 dBz)-H_(-20)≥-0.5 km、6—8月H_(45 dBz)-H_0≥2.0 km且H_(45 dBz)-H_(-20)≥-1.2 km时,可预报有冰雹出现,预报提前18~54 min;(4)若除去飑线和下击暴流回波,当回波的VIL≥30 kg·m~(-2)、D_(VIL)≥3.0 g·m~(-3)时,可预报有冰雹出现,预报提前12~54 min。此外,还总结了冰雹云的生命期特征等,并利用2012年发生的冰雹天气过程检验了预报指标。 相似文献
16.
利用CFSR资料分析近30年全球云量分布及变化 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
在利用MODIS卫星的云产品资料对CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)再分析资料云产品质量进行检验评估的基础上,采用CFSR资料对1979—2009年全球总云量及低、中、高云量的平均分布及其随纬度的变化进行了分析;用经验模态分解(EMD)方法分析了近30年全球云量的变化趋势,结果表明:(1)全球近30年平均总云量约为59%,全球总云量及低云量、中云量都有明显的纬向分布特征,全球总云量有3个峰值带和3个低值带。(2)低云量的海陆分布差异较明显,陆地上的低云量明显低于海洋上的,除了两个极圈附近,南半球各纬度的低云量都比北半球相应纬度上的都要多;高云量的高值、低值中心均集中在赤道附近到南、北半球30°之间的中低纬度,并且低值中心主要分布在大洋的东部。(3)总云量的总变化趋势为增长,具体表现为随时间呈现先略减少后大幅增加趋势,其突变点大致在1993年,在1993年之后,总云量显著增多。低云量和高云量均呈现增长趋势,中云量则相反,呈减少趋势。低云量增幅最明显,接近2%,中、高云量则增减幅度较小。 相似文献
17.
Decreasing Trend in Global Land Monsoon Precipitation over the Past 50 Years Simulated by a Coupled Climate Model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The authors examine the effects of external forcing agents such as greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, as well as solar variability and ozone, on global land monsoon precipitation by using a coupled climate model HadGEM1, which was developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Research. The results indicate that HadGEM1 performs well in simulating the observed decreasing trend of global land monsoon precipitation over the past 50 years. This trend mainly occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and is ... 相似文献
18.
The total ozone column is well correlated with tropospheric fields such as the heights of the upper tropospheric geopotential
surfaces and thus it can provide useful information on temporal variability in the troposphere. The global availability of
long period satellite measurements of the total ozone column, taken by the TOMS instruments since 1978, provides a valuable
and independent data set for use in studies of seasonal and interannual climate variability. In this study, the global low-frequency
seasonal teleconnections in the observed TOMS data from 1979–91 have been investigated using seasonal teleconnectivity maps
and empirical orthogonal function analysis. They have also been compared with the results from a simulation made with the
atmospheric GCM at Météo-France, having prescribed observed sea surface temperatures for the same period. In the observed
total ozone, strong ENSO-related wave number one longitudinal dipole patterns are seen in both the tropics and in the Southern
Hemisphere extratropics. The model shows much weaker variability in total ozone yet appears to be able to capture similar
teleconnection patterns in the tropics related to ENSO. In the SH extratropics, the model total ozone shows a strong wave
number 3 response rather than the wave number one dipole seen in the observations. A wave number 3 response is also evident
in the 200 hPa geopotential height simulated by the model and in the NCEP analysis, and is consistent with the response in
a linearised barotropic model forced in the Indonesian region. The different responses in the modelled and observed total
ozone, suggest that tropopause effect is not the major factor in the SH extratropics, and it is likely that horizontal ozone
transport also plays a role in this region. Despite a generally poor simulation of the zonal mean total ozone, the model was
able to capture the anomalous strengthening of the SH stationary waves during austral spring of 1988, related to an intense
stratosphere sudden warming.
Received: 21 October 1996 / Accepted: 11 September 1997 相似文献
19.
A time-slice experiment with the ECHAM4 AGCM at high resolution: the impact of horizontal resolution on annual mean climate change 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The climate response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, prescribed according to the International Panel
of Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a, is studied in two model simulations. The reference simulation is a transient response
experiment performed with a medium-resolution (T42) coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC)
developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. For two 30-year “time slices”, representing the present-day climate
and the future climate at the time of effective CO2 doubling, the annual mean climate states are compared with those obtained from the high-resolution (T106) ECHAM4 model forced
with monthly sea surface temperatures and sea-ice from the coupled model. The large-scale changes in temperature, zonal wind,
sea-level pressure and precipitation are broadly similar. This applies, in particular, to the respective zonal means. In general,
except for precipitation, the responses in the time-slice experiments are slightly weaker than those simulated in the coupled
model due to a smaller effect of the horizontal resolution on the simulations of the future (warmer) period than on the simulations
of the present period. On a regional scale, the impact of horizontal resolution is smaller in the Southern than in the Northern
Hemisphere, where the response differences are caused mainly by changes in the positions of the stationary waves. Although
the precipitation responses are broadly similar, there are few notable exceptions such as a more pronounced maximum over the
equatorial oceans in the T106 experiment but a weaker response over low-latitude land areas. Differences in precipitation
response are found especially in areas with strong topographical control such as South America, for example.
Received: 17 January 2000 / Accepted: 7 July 2000 相似文献