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1.
Sea-level variability in the South China Sea was investigated based on satellite altimetry, tide-gauge data, and temperature and salinity climatology. The altimetric sea-level results clearly reveal three distinct amphidromes associated with the annual cycle. The annual sea level is higher in fall/winter in the coast and shelf region and lower in summer/fall in the central sea, agreeing well with independent tide-gauge data. Averaged over the deep basin (bottom depth?>?2,000 m), the annual cycle can be approximately accounted for by the steric height relative to 700 db. Significant interannual sea-level change is observed from altimetry and tide-gauge data. The interannual and longer-term sea-level variability in the altimetric data is negatively correlated (significant at the 95% confidence level) with the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), attributed in part to the steric height change. The altimetric sea-level rise rate is 1.0 cm/year for the period from 1993 to 2001, which is consistent with the rate derived from coastal tide-gauge data and approximately accountable for by the steric height calculated relative to 700 db. The tide-gauge sea-level (steric height) rise rate of 1.05 (0.9) cm/year from 1993 to 2001 is much larger than that of 0.22 (0.12) cm/year for the period from 1979 to 2001, implying the sensitivity to the length of data as a result of the decadal variability. Potential roles of the ENSO in the interannual and longer-term sea-level variability are discussed in terms of regional manifestations such as the ocean temperature and salinity. 相似文献
2.
Effects of interannual salinity variability on the barrier layer in the western-central equatorial Pacific: A diagnostic analysis from Argo 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
ABSTRACT In this paper, interannual variations in the barrier layer thickness （BLT） are analyzed using Argo three-dimensional temperature and salinity data, with a locus on the effects of interannually varying salinity on the evolution of the El Nifio Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. The interannually varying BLT exhibits a zonal seesaw pattern across the equatorial Pacific during ENSO cycles. This phenomenon has been attributed to two different physical processes. During E1 Nifio （La Nifia）, the barrier layer （BL） is anomalously thin （thick） west of about 160°E, and thick （thin） to the east. In the western equatorial Pacific （the western part： 130°-160°E）, interannual variations of the BLT indicate a lead of one year relative to those of the ENSO onset. The interannual variations of the BLT can be largely attributed to the interannual temperature variability, through its dominant effect on the isothermal layer depth （ILD）. However, in the central equatorial Pacific （the eastern part： 160~E- 170~W）, interannual variations of the BL almost synchronously vary with ENSO, with a lead of about two months relative to those of the local SST. In this region, the interannual variations of the BL are significantly affected by the interannually varying salinity, mainly through its modulation effect on the mixed layer depth （MLD）. As evaluated by a onedimensional boundary layer ocean model, the BL around the dateline induced by interannual salinity anomalies can significantly affect the temperature fields in the upper ocean, indicating a positive feedback that acts to enhance ENSO. 相似文献
3.
Climate variabilities of sea level around the Korean Peninsula 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
4.
In the northern Bay of Bengal, mechanisms of seasonal sea-level variation have not previously been examined, and the understanding of longer-term inter-annual sea-level variation is also not concrete. These parameters are addressed in this study utilizing available tide gauge and satellite altimetry data. The contribution of steric sea level to seasonal and longer-term inter-annual sea-level variations is quantified, and statistical analysis is performed to determine the correlations of various atmospheric and oceanic factors with sea level. This study suggests that the trend of sea-level rise in this bay (4 ± 1.33 mm/year) is higher than the global average (3.32 ± 0.46 mm/year) for the studied period 1993 to 2018. The rate of sea-level rise is higher along the coast than in the offshore area and the highest in the central part of the coast. Sea level shows a strong seasonal variation: sea level is the lowest in the winter but the highest in autumn. The contribution from the thermosteric sea level is higher to the observed sea level from winter to early summer, whereas contributions from the halosteric sea level and wind stress curl are higher during autumn. Long-term variations in sea level show strong positive correlations with thermosteric sea level, indicating that temperature is a major local controlling factor for sea-level change. In addition to local factors, long-term sea level also varies by remote forcing (equatorial zonal wind stress), which explains approximately 36 % of the sea-level variation in this bay. Sea level is low during the combined events of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Niño, whereas the sea level is high during the combined events of negative IOD and La Niña. This study provides an improved understanding of seasonal and longer-term inter-annual variations of sea level and the necessary groundworks for a dedicated model study to further quantify all the components of the sea-level budget in the study areas. 相似文献
5.
Interannual and interdecadal oscillation patterns in sea level 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Relative sea-level height (RSLH) data at 213 tide-gauge stations have been analyzed on a monthly and an annual basis to study interannual and interdecadal oscillations, respectively. The main tools of the study are singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and multi-channel SSA (M-SSA). Very-low-frequency variability of RSLH was filtered by SSA to estimate the linear trend at each station. Global sea-level rise, after postglacial rebound corrections, has been found to equal 1.62±0.38 mm/y, by averaging over 175 stations which have a trend consistent with the neighboring ones. We have identified two dominant time scales of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, quasi-biennial and low-frequency, in the RSLH data at almost all stations. However, the amplitudes of both ENSO signals are higher in the equatorial Pacific and along the west coast of North America. RSLH data were interpolated along ocean coasts by latitudinal intervals of 5 or 10 degrees, depending on station density. Interannual variability was then examined by M-SSA in five regions: eastern Pacific (25°S–55°N at 10° resolution), western Pacific (35°S–45°N at 10°), equatorial Pacific (123°E–169°W, 6 stations), eastern Atlantic (30°S, 0°, and 30°N–70°N at 5°) and western Atlantic (50°S–50°N at 10°). Throughout the Pacific, we have found three dominant spatio-temporal oscillatory patterns, associated with time scales of ENSO variability; their periods are 2, 2.5–3 and 4–6 y. In the eastern Pacific, the biennial mode and the 6-y low-frequency mode propagate poleward. There is a southward propagation of low-frequency modes in the western Pacific RSLH, between 35°N and 5°S, but no clear propagation in the latitudes further south. However, equatorward propagation of the biennial signal is very clear in the Southern Hemisphere. In the equatorial Pacific, both the quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial modes at 10°N propagate westward. Strong and weak El Niño years are evident in the sea-level time series reconstructed from the quasi-biennial and low-frequency modes. Interannual variability with periods of 3 and 4–8 y is detected in the Atlantic RSLH data. In the eastern Atlantic region, we have found slow propagation of both modes northward and southward, away from 40–45°N. Interdecadal oscillations were studied using 81 stations with sufficiently long and continuous records. Most of these have variability at 9–13 and some at 18 y. Two significant eigenmode pairs, corresponding to periods of 11.6 and 12.8 y, are found in the eastern and western Atlantic ocean at latitudes 40°N–70°N and 10°N–50°N, respectively. 相似文献
6.
The El Nin o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modulated by many factors; most previous studies have emphasized the roles of wind stress and heat flux in the tropical Pacific. Freshwater flux (FWF) is another environmental forcing to the ocean; its effect and the related ocean salinity variability in the ENSO region have been of increased interest recently. Currently, accurate quantifications of the FWF roles in the climate remain challenging; the related observations and coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling involve large elements of uncertainty. In this study, we utilized satellite-based data to represent FWF-induced feedback in the tropical Pacific climate system; we then incorporated these data into a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HCM) to quantify its effects on ENSO. A new mechanism was revealed by which interannual FWF forcing modulates ENSO in a significant way. As a direct forcing, FWF exerts a significant influence on the ocean through sea surface salinity (SSS) and buoyancy flux (Q B ) in the western-central tropical Pacific. The SSS perturbations directly induced by ENSO-related interannual FWF variability affect the stability and mixing in the upper ocean. At the same time, the ENSO-induced FWF has a compensating effect on heat flux, acting to reduce interannual Q B variability during ENSO cycles. These FWF-induced processes in the ocean tend to modulate the vertical mixing and entrainment in the upper ocean, enhancing cooling during La Nin a and enhancing warming during El Nin o, respectively. The interannual FWF forcing-induced positive feedback acts to enhance ENSO amplitude and lengthen its time scales in the tropical Pacific coupled climate system. 相似文献
7.
Summary The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle is the basis for this paper, aimed at providing a diagnostic outlook
on seasonal sea-level variability (i.e. anomalies with respect to the Climatology) for the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands
(USAPI).
Results revealed that the sea-level variations in the northwestern tropical Pacific islands (e.g. Guam and Marshall Islands)
have been found to be sensitive to ENSO-cycle, with low sea-level during El Ni?o and high sea-level during La Ni?a events.
The annual cycle (first harmonic) of sea-level variability in these north Pacific islands has also been found to be very strong.
The composites of SST and circulation diagnostic show that strong El Ni?o years feature stronger surface westerly winds in
the equatorial western/central Pacific, which causes north Pacific islands to experience lower sea-level from July to December,
while the sea-level in south Pacific islands (e.g. American Samoa) remains unchanged. As the season advances, the band of
westerly winds propagates towards the south central tropical Pacific and moves eastward, which causes American Samoa to experience
a lower sea-level from January to June, but with six months time lag as compared to Guam and the Marshalls.
U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands are among the most vulnerable communities to climate variability and change. This study has
identified the year-to-year ENSO climate cycle to have significant impact on the sea-level variability of these islands. Therefore,
regular monitoring of the ENSO climate cycle features that affect seasonal sea-level variability would provide substantial
opportunities to develop advance planning and decision options regarding hazard management in these islands. 相似文献
8.
This paper uses recent gridded climatological data and a coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulation in order to assess the relationships between the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The focus is on the dynamics of the ISM-ENSO relationships and the ability of the state-of-the-art coupled GCM to reproduce the complex lead-lag relationships between the ISM and the ENSO. The coupled GCM is successful in reproducing the ISM circulation and rainfall climatology in the Indian areas even though the entire ISM circulation is weaker relative to that observed. In both observations and in the simulation, the ISM rainfall anomalies are significantly associated with fluctuations of the Hadley circulation and the 200 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean. A quasi-biennial time scale is found to structure the ISM dynamical and rainfall indices in both cases. Moreover, ISM indices have a similar interannual variability in the simulation and observations. The coupled model is less successful in simulating the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. A major model bias is the eastward displacement of the western North Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), near the dateline, during northern summer. This introduces a strong semiannual component in Pacific Walker circulation indices and central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. Another weakness of the coupled model is a less-than-adequate simulation of the Southern Oscillation due to an erroneous eastward extension of the Southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) year round. Despite these problems, the coupled model captures some aspects of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. ENSO events are phase-locked with the annual cycle as observed, but are of reduced amplitude relative to the observations. Wavelet analysis of the model Niño34 time series shows enhanced power in the 2–4 year band, as compared to the 2–8 year range for observations during the 1950–2000 period. The ISM circulation is weakened during ENSO years in both the simulation and the observations. However, the model fails to reproduce the lead-lag relationship between the ISM and Niño34 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Furthermore, lag correlations show that the delayed response of the wind stress over the central Pacific to ISM variability is insignificant in the simulation. These features are mainly due to the unrealistic interannual variability simulated by the model in the western North Pacific. The amplitude and even the sign of the simulated surface and upper level wind anomalies in these areas are not consistent with observed patterns during weak/strong ISM years. The ISM and western North Pacific ITCZ fluctuate independently in the observations, while they are negatively and significantly correlated in the simulation. This isolates the Pacific Walker circulation from the ISM forcing. These systematic errors may also contribute to the reduced amplitude of ENSO variability in the coupled simulation. Most of the unrealistic features in simulating the Indo-Pacific interannual variability may be traced back to systematic errors in the base state of the coupled model. 相似文献
9.
ENSO机理及其预测研究 总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19
资料分析研究表明ENSO(El Ni?o和La Ni?a)实际上是热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环,而次表层海温距平的循环是赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的,赤道西太平洋的异常纬向风又主要由异常东亚冬季风所激发。因此可以将ENSO的机理视为主要是由东亚季风异常造成的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环。同时分析还表明,热带西太平洋大气季节内振荡(ISO)的明显年际变化,作为一种外部强迫,对ENSO循环起着十分重要的作用;El Ni?o的发生同大气ISO的明显系统性东传有关。资料分析也表明,El Ni?o持续时间的长短与大气环流异常有密切关系。 用非线性最优化方法研究El Ni?o－南方涛动(ENSO)事件的可预报性问题,揭示了最容易发展成ENSO事件的初始距平模态,即条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)型初始距平;找出能够导致显著春季可预报性障碍(SPB),且对ENSO预报结果有最大影响的一类初始误差——CNOP型初始误差,进而探讨耦合过程的非线性在SPB研究中的重要作用,提出了关于ENSO事件发生SPB的一种可能机制;用CNOP方法揭示了ENSO强度的不对称现象,探讨ENSO不对称性的年代际变化问题,提出ENSO不对称性年代际变化的一种机制;建立了关于ENSO可预报性的最大可预报时间下界、最大预报误差上界和最大允许初始误差下界的三类可预报性问题,分别从三个方面揭示ENSO事件的春季可预报性障碍现象,比较有效地量化了模式ENSO事件的可预报性。 利用中国科学院大气物理研究所地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室的ENSO预测系统,研究了海洋资料同化在ENSO预测中的应用,该系统可以同时对温、盐剖面资料和卫星高度计资料进行同化。并且在模式中采用次表层上卷海温的非局地参数化方法,可有效地改进ENSO模拟水平。采用集合卡曼滤波(Ensemble Kalman Filter,EnKF)同化方法以及在集合资料同化中“平衡的”多变量模式误差扰动方法为集合预报提供更加精确和协调的初始场,ENSO预报技巧得到提高。 相似文献
10.
Climatology and variability of the Indonesian Throughflow in an eddy-permitting oceanic GCM 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
A quasi-global eddy permitting oceanic GCM, LICOM1.0, is run with the forcing of ERA40 daily wind stress from 1958 to 2001. The modelled Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is reasonable in the aspects of both its water source and major pathways. Compared with the observation, the simulated annual mean and seasonal cycle of the ITF transport are fairly realistic. The interannual variation of the tropical Pacific Ocean plays a more important role in the interannual variability of the ITF transport. The relationshipbetween the ITF and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also reflects the influence of ENSO. However, the relationship between the ITF transport and the interannual anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Oceans vary with time. During some years, (e.g., 1994), the effect of a strong IOD on the ITF transport is more than that from ENSO. 相似文献
11.
气候系统模式FGOALS_gl模拟的赤道太平洋年际变率 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
本文分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 (LASG/IAP) 发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对赤道太平洋年际变率的模拟能力。结果表明, FGOALS_gl可以较好地模拟出赤道太平洋SST异常年际变率的主要特征, 但模拟的ENSO事件振幅偏大, 且变率周期过于规则。耦合模式模拟的气候平均风应力在热带地区比ERA40再分析资料的风应力强度偏弱30%左右, 由此引起的海洋平均态的变化, 是造成模拟的ENSO振幅偏强的主要原因。FGOALS_gl模拟的ENSO峰值多出现在春季或夏季, 原因可归之于模式模拟的SST季节循环偏差。耦合模式可以合理再现ENSO演变过程, 但观测中SST异常的东传特征在模式中没有得到再现, 这与模拟的ENSO发展模态表现为单一的 “SST模态” 有关。模拟的ENSO位相转换机制与 “充电—放电” 概念模型相符合, 赤道太平洋热含量的变化是维持ENSO振荡的机制。在ENSO暖位相时期, 赤道中东太平洋与印度洋—西太平洋暖池区的海平面气压距平型表现为南方涛动型 (SO型), 200 hPa位势高度分布表现为太平洋—北美遥相关型 (PNA型)。 相似文献
12.
The climatology and interannual variability of sea surface salinity(SSS) and freshwater flux(FWF) in the equatorial Pacific are analyzed and evaluated using simulations from the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model(BNU-ESM).The simulated annual climatology and interannual variations of SSS, FWF, mixed layer depth(MLD), and buoyancy flux agree with those observed in the equatorial Pacific. The relationships among the interannual anomaly fields simulated by BNU-ESM are analyzed to illustrate the climate feedbacks induced by FWF in the tropical Pacific. The largest interannual variations of SSS and FWF are located in the western-central equatorial Pacific. A positive FWF feedback effect on sea surface temperature(SST) in the equatorial Pacific is identified. As a response to El Ni ?no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),the interannual variation of FWF induces ocean processes which, in turn, enhance ENSO. During El Ni ?no, a positive FWF anomaly in the western-central Pacific(an indication of increased precipitation rates) acts to enhance a negative salinity anomaly and a negative surface ocean density anomaly, leading to stable stratification in the upper ocean. Hence, the vertical mixing and entrainment of subsurface water into the mixed layer are reduced, and the associated El Ni ?no is enhanced. Related to this positive feedback, the simulated FWF bias is clearly reflected in SSS and SST simulations, with a positive FWF perturbation into the ocean corresponding to a low SSS and a small surface ocean density in the western-central equatorial Pacific warm pool. 相似文献
13.
AbstractTrends in regional mean sea levels can be substantially different from the global mean trend. Here, we first use tide-gauge data and satellite altimetry measurements to examine trends in mean relative sea level (MRSL) for the coasts of Canada over approximately the past 50–100 years. We then combine model output and satellite observations to provide sea level projections for the twenty-first century. The MRSL trend based on historical tide-gauge data shows large regional variations, from 3?mm?y?1 (higher than the global mean MRSL rise rate of 1.7?mm?y?1 for 1900–2009) along the southeast Atlantic coast, close to or below the global mean along the Pacific and Arctic coasts, to –9?mm?y?1 in Hudson Bay, as indicated by the vertical land motion. The combination of altimeter-measured sea level change with Global Positioning System (GPS) data approximately accounts for tide-gauge measurements at most stations for the 1993–2011 period. The projected MRSL change between 1980 and 1999 and between 2090 and 2099 under a medium-high climate change emission scenario (A2) ranges from ?50?cm in northeastern Canada to 75?cm in southeastern Canada. Along the coast of the Beaufort Sea, the MRSL rise is as high as 70?cm. The MRSL change along the Pacific coast varies from ?15 to 50?cm. The ocean steric and dynamical effects contribute to the rise in MRSL along Canadian coasts and are dominant on the southeast coast. Land-ice (glaciers and ice sheets) melt contributes 10–20?cm to the rise in MRSL, except in northeastern Canada. The effect of the vertical land uplift is large and centred near Hudson Bay, significantly reducing the rise in MRSL. The land-ice melt also causes a decrease in MRSL in northeastern Canada. The projected MRSL change under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) has a spatial pattern similar to that under A2, with a slightly greater rise in MRSL of 7?cm, on average, and some notable differences at specific sites. 相似文献
14.
The interdecadal and the interannual variability of the global monsoon (GM) precipitation over the area which is chosen by the definition of Wang and Ding (Geophys Res Lett 33: L06711, 2006) are investigated. The recent increase of the GM precipitation shown in previous studies is in fact dominant during local summer. It is evident that the GM monsoon precipitation has been increasing associated with the positive phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation in recent decades. Against the increasing trend of the GM summer precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, its interannual variability has been weakened. The significant change-point for the weakening is detected around 1993. The recent weakening of the interannual variability is related to the interdecadal changes in interrelationship among the GM subcomponents around 1993. During P1 (1979–1993) there is no significant interrelationship among GM subcomponents. On the other hand, there are significant interrelationships among the Asian, North American, and North African summer monsoon precipitations during P2 (1994–2009). It is noted that the action center of the interdecadal changes is the Asian summer (AS) monsoon system. It is found that during P2 the Western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM)-related variability is dominant but during P1 the ENSO-related variability is dominant over the AS monsoon region. The WNPSM-related variability is rather related to central-Pacific (CP) type ENSO rather than the eastern-Pacific (EP) type ENSO. Model experiments confirm that the CP type ENSO forcing is related to the dominant WNPSM-related variability and can be responsible for the significant interrelationship among GM subcomponents. 相似文献
15.
Abstract A computational method is developed where salinities inferred from mean salinity profiles (computed from all available data) are used to calculate 0/500 db dynamic height from temperature profiles. Using data from Ocean Weather Station P (50°N, 145°W), the method yielded a much smaller uncertainty in inferred 0/500 db dynamic height (～3 dyn cm) than that found using a mean temperature‐salinity relationship (～10 dyn cm). Applied to historical hydrographic data averaged over 5° squares in the North Pacific (north of 30°N), the method led to inferred dynamic‐height uncertainties typically less than 4 dyn cm in the region north of the Subarctic Front (～40°N). In this same region, dynamic heights inferred from mean temperature‐salinity curves had large uncertainties. South of the Subarctic Front, the dynamic‐height uncertainties associated with the temperature‐salinity curves were smaller than those computed with the mean salinity profiles. A combination of these two methods was used to compute inferred dynamic height from a climatology of temperature structure in the region from 30–50°N, 130°W‐150°E. 相似文献
16.
用混合海气耦合模式长期积分的模拟结果, 分析了模式大气的年际变化性; 用1979~1994年间的“回报”个例, 探讨了该模式对ENSO引起的全球气候异常的预报。结果表明:模式能较好地再现与ENSO相关的全球大气环流的年际变化特征; 对预报而言, 模式较高的预报技巧主要分布在热带地区, 全球热带大气具有较稳定的1年左右的可预报时效; 基本上可预报中、高纬地区由ENSO引起的冬、夏季大气环流异常 (包括气温和降水), 超前时间可达9个月至1年。 相似文献
17.
A. G. Nidheesh Matthieu Lengaigne Jérôme Vialard A. S. Unnikrishnan H. Dayan 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(2):381-402
In this study, we analysed decadal and long-term steric sea level variations over 1966–2007 period in the Indo-Pacific sector, using an ocean general circulation model forced by reanalysis winds. The simulated steric sea level compares favourably with sea level from satellite altimetry and tide gauges at interannual and decadal timescales. The amplitude of decadal sea level variability (up to ~5 cm standard deviation) is typically nearly half of the interannual variations (up to ~10 cm) and two to three times larger than long-term sea level variations (up to 2 cm). Zonal wind stress varies at decadal timescales in the western Pacific and in the southern Indian Ocean, with coherent signals in ERA-40 (from which the model forcing is derived), NCEP, twentieth century and WASWind products. Contrary to the variability at interannual timescale, for which there is a tendency of El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events to co-occur, decadal wind stress variations are relatively independent in the two basins. In the Pacific, those wind stress variations drive Ekman pumping on either side of the equator, and induce low frequency sea level variations in the western Pacific through planetary wave propagation. The equatorial signal from the western Pacific travels southward to the west Australian coast through equatorial and coastal wave guides. In the Indian Ocean, decadal zonal wind stress variations induce sea level fluctuations in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, through equatorial and coastal wave-guides. Wind stress curl in the southern Indian Ocean drives decadal variability in the south-western Indian Ocean through planetary waves. Decadal sea level variations in the south–western Indian Ocean, in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and in the Bay of Bengal are weakly correlated to variability in the Pacific Ocean. Even though the wind variability is coherent among various wind products at decadal timescales, they show a large contrast in long-term wind stress changes, suggesting that long-term sea level changes from forced ocean models need to be interpreted with caution. 相似文献
18.
The intraseasonal oscillation in ECHAM4 Part I: coupled to a comprehensive ocean model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This study discusses the representation of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in three simulations with the ECHAM4 atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). First, the model is forced by AMIP sea surface temperatures (SST), then coupled to the OPYC3 global ocean GCM and third forced by OPYC3 SSTs to clarify possible air-sea interactions and connections of the ISO and the ENSO cycle. The simulations are compared to ECMWF reanalysis data and NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) observations. Although previous studies have shown that the ECHAM4 GCM simulates an ISO-like oscillation, the main deficits are an overly fast eastward propagation and an eastward displacement of the main ISO activity, which is shown with a composite analysis of daily data between 1984 to 1988 for the reanalysis and the AMIP simulation, 25 years of the coupled integration, and a five year subset of the coupled SST output used for the OPYC3 forced atmosphere GCM experiment. These deficits are common to many atmospheric GCMs. The composites are obtained by principal oscillation pattern (POP). The POPs are also used to investigate the propagation speed and the interannual variability of the main ISO activity. The present coupled model version reveals no clear improvements in the ISO simulation compared to the uncoupled version forced with OPYC3 SSTs, although it is shown that the modeled ISO influences the simulated high-frequency SST variability in the coupled GCM. Within the current analysis, ECHAM4 forced by AMIP SSTs provides the most reasonable ISO simulation. However, it is shown that the maximum amplitudes of the annual cycle of the ISO variability in all analyzed model versions are reached too late in the year (spring and summer) compared to the observations (winter and spring). Additionally, the ENSO cycle influences the interannual variability of the ISO, which is revealed by 20 years of daily reanalysis data and 100 years of the coupled integration. The ENSO cycle is simulated by the coupled model, although there is a roughly 1 K cold bias in the East Pacific in the coupled model. This leads to a diminished influence of the ENSO cycle on the spatial variability of the modeled ISO activity compared to observations. This points out the strong sensitivity of the SST on the ISO activity. Small biases in the SST appear to cause large deterioration in the modeled ISO. 相似文献
19.
Time series of west-Antarctic (WA) annual surface mass balance (SMB) from ITASE firn/ice cores are compared with the ECMWF
1958–2001 ERA40 reanalysis-based model forecasts. The ITASE series partially confirm the spatial structure of the signature
of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in WA precipitation as previously identified in ERA40 and other models. However, an
improvement of ERA40’s ability to reproduce the west-Antarctic SMB since the 1970s is evidenced and is probably related to
the onset and increasing use of satellite data in late 1972 and 1978. Restricting the analysis to the 1973–2000 (satellite)
period, interannual correlations between ITASE cores and ERA40 SMB series are generally significant (95% confidence level)
but weak. The fraction of common variability increases when the series are spatially averaged, suggesting that small-scale
perturbation (SSP) of the large-scale SMB variability significantly contributes to year-to-year variability in single core
series. A comparison of stake network and core data from the South Pole suggests that SSP can almost fully obscure the large-scale
component of the SMB variability as recorded in a single core. Because of SSP, the 1973–2000 period is too brief to verify
whether all aspects of the WA large-scale signatures of ENSO and of the Antarctic Oscillation suggested by ERA40 are confirmed
in the core series. More annually resolved field data from cores and stakes, spatially extended using high-resolution ground
penetrating radar, are necessary to fully assess the relationship between the Antarctic SMB and the large-scale climate as
currently suggested by meteorological and climate models. 相似文献
