首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
In earthquake occurrence studies, the so-called q value can be considered both as one of the parameters describing the distribution of interevent times and as an index of non-extensivity. Using simulated datasets, we compare four kinds of estimators, based on principle of maximum entropy (POME), method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (MLE), and probability weighted moments (PWM) of the parameters (q and τ 0) of the distribution of inter-events times, assumed to be a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), as defined by Tsallis (1988) in the frame of non-extensive statistical physics. We then propose to use the unbiased version of PWM estimators to compute the q value for the distribution of inter-event times in a realistic earthquake catalogue simulated according to the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. Finally, we use these findings to build a statistical emulator of the q values of ETAS model. We employ treed Gaussian processes to obtain partitions of the parameter space so that the resulting model respects sharp changes in physical behaviour. The emulator is used to understand the joint effects of input parameters on the q value, exploring the relationship between ETAS model formulation and distribution of inter-event times.  相似文献   

2.
Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect.Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S(T) ∼ Tβ with 〈β〉 = 0.51, up to a timescale, TMaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that Sq(T) ∼ Tβ(q), with β(q) ? 0 for q ? 0, and β(q) ? 0.5 for q ? 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.  相似文献   

3.
On June 15, 1995 at 00:15 GMT a devastating earthquake (6.2M L ) occurred in the western end of the Gulf of Corinth. This was followed 15 min later by the largest aftershock (5.4M L ). The main event was located by the University of Patras Seismological Network (PATNET) at the northern side of the Gulf of Corinth graben. The second event (5.4M L ) was located also by PATNET near the city of Egion, on a fault parallel to the Eliki major fault that defines the south bound of the Gulf of Corinth graben. A seismogenic volume that spans the villages of Akrata (SE) and Rodini (NW) and extends to Eratini (NE) was defined by the aftershock sequence, which includes 858 aftershocks of magnitude greater than 2M L that occurred the first seventeen days. The distribution of hypocentres in cross section does not immediately suggest a planar distribution but rather defines a volume about 15 km (depth) by 35 km (NW-SE) and by 20 km (NE-SW).  相似文献   

4.
Investigation of the spatiotemporal properties of the 2003 Lefkada seismic sequence is performed through non-extensive statistical physics. Information on highly accurate aftershock source parameters became feasible from the recordings of a portable digital seismological network that was installed and operated in the study area, during the evolution of the seismic sequence. Thus, the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks onto the main and neighboring fault segments was investigated in detail, enabling the recognition of four distinctive seismicity clusters separated by less active patches. The aftershock spatiotemporal properties are studied here, using the ideas of non-extensive statistical physics (NESP). The cumulative distribution functions of the inter-event times and the inter-event distances are presented using the data set in each seismicity cluster, and the analysis results in values for the statistical thermodynamic q T and q D parameters for each cluster, where q T varies from 1.16 to 1.47 and q D from 0.42 to 0.77 for the inter-event times and distances distributions, respectively. These values confirm the complexity and non-additivity of the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity, and the applicability of the NESP approach in investigating aftershocks sequence. The temporal pattern is discussed using the closely connected to NESP approach of superstatistics, which is based on a superposition of ordinary local equilibrium statistical mechanics. The result indicates that the temporal evolution of the Lefkada aftershock sequence in clusters A, B and C is governed by very low number of degrees of freedom, while D is a less organized seismicity structure with a much higher number of degrees of freedom.  相似文献   

5.
In the present study, the spatiotemporal properties of the Aigion earthquake (15 June 1995) aftershock sequence are being studied using the concept of non-extensive statistical physics (NESP). The cumulative distribution functions of the inter-event times and the inter-event distances are being estimated for the data set which is assumed to be complete and the analysis yielded the thermodynamic q parameter to be qT = 1.58 and q r = 0.53 for the two distributions, respectively. The results fit rather well to the inter-event distances and times distributions, implying the complexity of the spatiotemporal properties of seismicity and the usefulness of NESP in investigating such phenomena. The temporal structure is also being discussed using the complementary to NESP approach of superstatistics, which is based on a superposition of ordinary local equilibrium statistical mechanics. The result indicates that very low degrees of freedom describe the temporal evolution of the Aigion earthquake aftershock seismicity.  相似文献   

6.
The work presents statistical methods for estimating the distribution parameters of rare, strong earthquakes. Using the two main theorems of extreme value theory (EVT), the distribution of T-maximum (the maximum magnitude over the time period T). Two methods for estimating the parameters of this distribution are proposed using the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and the General Extreme Value Distribution (GEV). In addition, the that allow the determination of the distribution of the T-maximum for an arbitrary value of T are proposed. The approach being used clarifies the nature of the instability of the widely accepted M max parameter. In the work, instead of unstable values of the M max parameter, the robust parameter Q T (q), the q level quantile for the distribution of the T-maximum, is proposed to be used. The described method has been applied to the Harvard Catalogue of Seismic Moments of 1977–2006 and to the Magnitude Catalogue for Fennoscandia in 1900–2005. Moreover, the estimates of parameters of the corresponding GPD and GEV distributions, in particular, the most interesting shape parameter and the values of the M max and Q T (q) parameters are given.  相似文献   

7.
The fracture-induced oscillations in sea ice were detected by seismographs and seismic tiltmeters established on the Arctic ice pack. Field observations were supplemented with a laboratory experiment. The energy distributions in elastic waves generated during: (i) large-scale ice pack fragmentation over area of about 105 km2, (ii) local crack propagation in ice floe, and (iii) laboratory ice crashing were constructed and analyzed using principles of the Tsallis statistics. The energy release regimes at different stages of fracturing were characterized by the parameter of nonextensivity q. In terms of the non-extensive statistical mechanics, q > 1 evidences the correlated (non-extensive) dynamics of the process in nonequilibrium system, q = 1 responds to the additivity of events occurring in equilibrium system, and q < 1 takes place when the energy release is additive and limited by an upper cut-off. All these scenarios were revealed in fracture processes occurring at three hierarchic levels. The variation of the q-value demonstrates high thermodynamic changeability of the fracture process driven by irregular external source. The role of energy conservation in fracturing sea ice is discussed in connection with the observed reversible transitions between extensive and non-extensive modes of fracture.  相似文献   

8.
郯庐断裂带东地堑边界断层在断裂带演化过程和现今构造格局中都是重要断层,对该边界断层的第四纪活动性研究有助于了解郯庐断裂带的演化历史和地震活动性,而有关该边界断层第四纪活动性研究较少且至今尚无定论。本文通过浅层地震勘探和钻孔联合剖面相结合的方法,针对郯庐断裂带江苏段东地堑两边界断层开展系统的断层第四纪活动性研究,结果显示,昌邑-大店断裂(F_1)第四纪以来未见构造运动证据,白芬子-浮来山断裂(F_2)在第四纪早期曾发生有关活动,晚更新世以来未见活动迹象。  相似文献   

9.
This paper introduces Tsallis statistics and the q-exponential distribution as a means of analysing hydrological phenomena. The basic framework is introduced and then the method is used to derive a distribution for flood recurrence intervals using recently published data from the River Po, Italy. This fits the data much more effectively than the simple power-law applied in a previous study. Hence, a distribution derived from power-law considerations is more appropriate than the power-law itself. Nonextensive statistical mechanics has the potential for much broader utility in hydrology than is demonstrated here. Some potential avenues for future study are introduced.  相似文献   

10.
汤阴地堑位于太行山脉与华北平原的过渡带,是太行山前重要的地质构造单元。为研究汤阴地堑上地壳结构和断裂特征,利用安阳市与新乡市活断层探测获得的深、浅地震反射剖面,结合研究区已有地震、地质资料,对汤阴地堑浅部结构、汤东断裂特征进行分析研究。结果表明,汤阴地堑北部与南部地壳结构差异明显。地堑北部是由汤东断裂控制的半地堑,地堑内反射震相丰富、反射波层组关系清晰,多组新生代、古生代沉积层强反射不整合地覆盖在自西向东倾伏的结晶基底反射Tg上,且随着深度增加,地层倾角增大,显示出明显的多期掀斜运动特征。地堑南部表现为由汤东、汤西断裂共同控制的断陷型地堑,地堑内新近系底界面反射波TN自西向东倾伏,其下为一些横向呈水平或东倾、延续性较短的反射震相。地堑南部与北部不同的反射震相特征表明,测线控制区域内的汤阴地堑沉积环境与运动特征可能有所差异。汤东断裂为走向NE,倾向NW的铲型正断层,汤西断裂为走向NE、倾向SE的正断层,北部中深层地震反射剖面上未发现该断层的存在。  相似文献   

11.
Multifractal analysis of earthquakes   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
Multifractal properties of the epicenter and hypocenter distribution and also of the energy distribution of earthquakes are studied for California, Japan, and Greece. The calculatedD q-q curves (the generalized dimension) indicate that the earthquake process is multifractal or heterogeneous in the fractal dimension. Japanese earthquakes are the most heterogeneous and Californian earthquakes are the least. Since the earthquake process is multifractal, a single value of the so-called fractal dimension is not sufficient to characterize the earthquake process. Studies of multifractal models of earthquakes are recommended. Temporal changes of theD q-q curve are also obtained for Californian and Japanese earthquakes. TheD q-q curve shows two distinctly different types in each region; the gentle type and the steep type. The steeptype corresponds to a strongly heterogeneous multifractal, which appears during seismically active periods when large earthquakes occur.D q for smallq or negativeq is considerably more sensitive to the change in fractal structure of earthquakes thanD q forq2. We recommend use ofD q at smallq to detect the seismicity change in a local area.  相似文献   

12.
Nonlinear effects in seismic wave propagation are analyzed to determine the mechanical rigidity of different-order faults that thread the tectonic structures in the central part of the East European platform (Moscow syneclise and Voronezh Crystalline Massif) and the fault zones of the Balapan and Degelen mountain regions in Kazakhstan (the Degelen magmatic node in the Central Chingiz zone). The dependency of the rigidity of the fault zone on the fault’s length is obtained. The rigidity of the tectonic structures is found to experience well-expressed temporal variations with periods of 13–15 days, 27–32 days, and about one year. In the different-order fault zones, the amplitudes of both normal k n and the shear k s rigidity for semimonthly, monthly, and annual variations can span a factor of 1.3, 1.5, and 2.5, respectively.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract Several differently scaled strike‐slip faults were examined. The faults shared many geometric features, such as secondary fractures and linkage structures (damage zones). Differences in fault style were not related to specific scale ranges. However, it was recognized that differences in style may occur in different tectonic settings (e.g. dilational/contractional relays or wall/linkage/tip zones), different locations along the master fault or different fault evolution stages. Fractal dimensions were compared for two faults (Gozo and San Andreas), which supports the idea of self‐similarity. Fractal dimensions for traces of faults and fractures of damage zones were higher (D ～1.35) than for the main fault traces (D ～1.005) because of increased complexity due to secondary faults and fractures. Based on the statistical analysis of another fault evolution study, single event movements in earthquake faults typically have a maximum earthquake slip : rupture length ratio of approximately 10?4, although this has only been established for large earthquake faults because of limited data. Most geological faults have a much higher maximum cumulative displacement : fault length ratio; that is, approximately 10?2 to 10?1 (e.g. Gozo, ～10?2; San Andreas, ～10?1). The final cumulative displacement on a fault is produced by accumulation of slip along ruptures. Hence, using the available information from earthquake faults, such as earthquake slip, recurrence interval, maximum cumulative displacement and fault length, the approximate age of active faults can be estimated. The lower limit of estimated active fault age is expressed with maximum cumulative displacement, earthquake slip and recurrence interval as T ? (dmax /u) · I(M).  相似文献   

14.
An earthquake sequence took place on March 20, 1992, in Milos island (Greece) and lasted for about ten days. The main shock registered a magnitudeM s =5.3 and a depth of 9.6 km. The majority of the events were shallower than 5 km. Theb value of the sequence (b=0.96) is characteristic for tectonic rather than volcanic activity. Geological, tectonic and seismological observations show that in the island of Milos the seismic energy is mainly released along fault zones. Minor swarm activity was also detected.Recent seismic activity is due to the reactivation of the tectonic graben which traverses the central part of the island in NW-SE trend.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

Numerical simulations of internal gravity waves-turbulence are carried out for the inviscid, viscous and forced-dissipative two-dimensional primitive equations using the spectral method. Some of the results are compared with the predictions of the eddy damped quasi-normal Markovian (EDQNM) closure for internal waves of Carnevale and Frederiksen, generalized for periodic boundary conditions and possible random forcing and dissipation. The EDQNM reduces to the Boltzman equation of resonant interaction theory in the continuum space limit and as the forcing and dissipation vanish. However, the limit is singular in the sense that as well as conserving total energy, E, and total cross-correlation between the vorticity and buoyancy fields, C, an additional conservation law, viz. z-momentum, Pz , occurs in the limit. This means that the resonant interaction equilibrium (RIE) solution of the Boltzmann equation differs from the statistical mechanical equilibrium (SME) solution of the EDQNM closure.

The statistical stability of the SME and RIE spectra for the primitive equations is tested by integrating the inviscid equations using initial realizations of these spectra with random phases. It is found that E and C are accurately conserved while Pz undergoes large amplitude variations. The approach to equilibrium of initial disequilibrium spectra is monitored by examining the evolution of the entropy. The increase and asymptotic approach to a constant value corresponding to complete chaos is consistent with the behaviour predicted by the EDQNM closure.

For the viscous decay and forced-dissipative experiments, the behaviour of the entropy is also consistent with that predicted by the EDQNM closure. There is approximate equipartition of potential and total kinetic energies throughout the integrations from initial conditions having equal potential and total kinetic energies and as well equal vertical and horizontal energies, but as expected, the ratio of horizontal to vertical kinetic energy increases with time to a value greater than unity.

With Laplacian viscous dissipation and thermal diffusivity, the statistical steady states produced in the forced-dissipative experiments have k?3 power laws for k≧7. A comparison with the power laws for kinetic energy and passive scalar variance produced in a numerical simulation of the two-dimensional passive scalar problem is also presented.  相似文献   

16.
A shallow moderate (M s=5.7) but damaging earthquake shook theregion of Beni-Ourtilane located about 50 km NW of Setif and 390 kmNE of Algiers (Central Eastern Algeria). The main shock caused the deathof 2 peoples, injured 50 and caused sustainable damage to about 3000housing units. The main shock was preceded by 2 foreshocks and followedby many aftershocks which lasted for many days. Analysis of historicalseismicity including the localisation of epicenters, the trend of isoseismalmaps of some historical events, the localisation of the November 10, 2000main shock (M s=5.7) and the November 16, 2000 aftershock(M s=4.5) as well as the shape of the area of maximum intensity ofthe November 10, 2000 earthquake suggest that the Tachaouaft fault of20 km of length is the activated geological structure. Although, there isno clear surface breaks associated with this earthquake, the localisation ofgeological disorders, such as ground fissures, during the Beni-Ourtilaneearthquake, which are remarkably located near the fault, may have atectonic meaning. Geomorphological analysis through Digital ElevationModels (DEMs) allowed us to identify a clear fault scarp related likely tostrong earthquakes occurred in the past. Among geomorphologicalevidences of this active fault there are the uplift and tilt of alluvial terraceson the hanging wall and the diversion of the drainage pattern. Based onthe quality of constructions and field observations an intensity I 0 = VII (MSK scale) is attributed to the epicentral area,which is striking NE-SW in agreement with the focal mechanism solutionand the seismotectonic observations. In the other hand the amount ofdamage is due rather to the bad quality of constructions than to theseverity of ground motion. The Tachaouaft fault with the Kherrata fault isthe main source of seismic hazard in the Babors region.  相似文献   

17.
This study proposes a statistically based procedure to quantify the confidence interval (CI) to be associated to the stages forecast by a simple model called STAge FOrecasting Model‐Rating Curve Model (STAFOM‐RCM). This model can be used for single river reaches characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and mean wave travel times when real‐time stage records, cross section surveys and rating curves are available at both ends. The model requires, at each time of forecast, an estimate of the lateral contribution qfor between the two sections delimiting the reach. The CI of the stage is provided by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral flow, and it is derived from the CI of the lateral contribution qfor which, in turn, is set up by associating to each qfor the qopt which allows STAFOM‐RCM to reproduce the exact observed stage. From an operative point of view, the qfor values are ranked in order of magnitude and subdivided in classes where the qopt values can be represented through normal distributions of proper mean and variance from which an interval of selected confidence level for qfor is computed and transferred to the stage. Three river reaches of the Tiber river, in central Italy, are used as case study. A sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to identify the minimum calibration set of flood events. The CIs obtained are consistent with the level of confidence selected and have practical utility. An interesting aspect is that different CI widths can be produced for the same forecast stage since they depend on the estimate of qfor made at the time of forecast. Overall, the proposed procedure for CI estimate is simple and can be conveniently adapted for other forecasting models provided that they have physically based parameters which need to be updated during the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The concept of Tsallis entropy was applied to model the probability distribution functions for the shear stress magnitudes in circular channels (with filling ratios of 0.506, 0.666, 0.826), circular with flat bed (filling ratios of 0.333, 0.666), rectangular channel (1.34, 2, 3.94, 7.37 aspect ratios) and compound channel (with relative depths of 0.324, 0.46). The equation for the shear stress distribution was obtained according to the entropy maximization principle, and is able to estimate the shear stress distribution as much on the walls as the channel bed. The approach is also compared with the predictions obtained based on the Shannon entropy concept. By comparing the two prediction models, this study highlights the application of Tsallis entropy to estimate the shear stress distribution of open channels. Although the results of the two models are similar in the circular cross-section, the differences between them are more significant in circular with flat bed and rectangular channels. For a wide range of filling ratio values, experimental data are used to illustrate the accuracy and reliability of the proposed model.  相似文献   

19.
Ａｌｉｇｎｍｅｎｔｓｉｌｋｗｏｒｍｓａｓｓｅｉｓｍｉｃａｎｉｍａｌａｎｏｍａｌｏｕｓｂｅｈａｖｉｏｒ（ＳＡＡＢ）ａｎｄｅｌｅｃｔｒｏｍａｇｎｅｔｉｃｍｏｄｅｌｏｆａｆａｕｌｔ：ａｔｈｅｏｒｙａｎｄｌａｂｏｒａｔｏｒｙｅｘｐｅｒｉｍｅｎｔＭＯＴＯ...  相似文献   

20.
A long sequence of earthquakes causing few casualties and considerable damage in a wide zone struck Central Italy starting on September 26, 1997. Theearthquakes are characterized by normal faulting mechanism, with a NE-SW(anti-Apenninic direction) tension axis. In this paper we analyze the accelerometric recordings collected by the accelerograph stations belonging to the National Accelerograph Network. About 10 stations were triggered by the mainshocks of the sequence. In particular, a small size foreshock and the two mainshocks that occurred on September,26 (00:33(GMT) MW = 5.7 and 09:40 MW = 6.0) have been recorded by two digital 3-C accelerometers located at near source distances (within 30 km from the faults). These records are relevant to investigate the detail of therupture kinematics, due to the close epicentral distance and azimuthallocation relative to the fault orientation and geometry. Using a trial and error approach we modeled the source mechanism through the fit of the arrival times, the apparent source time duration, the main polarization features and the entire waveforms of the recorded signals, in order to get some insight on the rupture evolution, the location of the fracture origin point and the fault geometry. Based on this fault kinematic model, inferences on fault slip distribution are obtained by modeling the S acceleration waveform, comparing the ray theory synthetics with 1–5 Hz band filtered ground velocity records.The final model shows that the seismic ruptures occurred along two adjacent,sub-parallel, low angle dipping normal faults. Ruptures bothnucleated from the fault bottom and propagated up-dip, showing differentrupture velocity and length. The presence of a transfer zone (barrier)can be suggested by the mainshocks rupture evolution. This transfer zonehas probably controlled the amplitude increase of local stressreleased by the first rupture at its NW edge which triggered about 9 hourslater the second rupture. The inferred model was used to compute the predictedground acceleration in the near source range, using a hybridstatistical-deterministic approach.A similar trial and error method has been also applied to the October 14, 199715:23 earthquake (MW = 5.6). The inferred kinematic model indicates a rupture nucleating from the faultbottom and propagating up-dip, toward the SE direction. Thus the three mainshocks ruptured distinct fault segments, adjacent and slightly offsetfrom one to another.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号