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1.
Berenice Zapata-Norberto Eric Morales-Casique Graciela S. Herrera 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(3):755-769
Severe land subsidence due to groundwater extraction may occur in multiaquifer systems where highly compressible aquitards are present. The highly compressible nature of the aquitards leads to nonlinear consolidation where the groundwater flow parameters are stress-dependent. The case is further complicated by the heterogeneity of the hydrogeologic and geotechnical properties of the aquitards. The effect of realistic vertical heterogeneity of hydrogeologic and geotechnical parameters on the consolidation of highly compressible aquitards is investigated by means of one-dimensional Monte Carlo numerical simulations where the lower boundary represents the effect of an instant drop in hydraulic head due to groundwater pumping. Two thousand realizations are generated for each of the following parameters: hydraulic conductivity (K), compression index (C c), void ratio (e) and m (an empirical parameter relating hydraulic conductivity and void ratio). The correlation structure, the mean and the variance for each parameter were obtained from a literature review about field studies in the lacustrine sediments of Mexico City. The results indicate that among the parameters considered, random K has the largest effect on the ensemble average behavior of the system when compared to a nonlinear consolidation model with deterministic initial parameters. The deterministic solution underestimates the ensemble average of total settlement when initial K is random. In addition, random K leads to the largest variance (and therefore largest uncertainty) of total settlement, groundwater flux and time to reach steady-state conditions. 相似文献
2.
Abderraouf El Ouazzani Taibi Amro Elfeki Guoping Zhang 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2011,4(5-6):1005-1018
The research presented in this paper focuses on the application of a newly developed physically based watershed modeling approach, which is called representative elementary watershed approach. The study stressed the effects of uncertainty of input parameters on the watershed responses (i.e., simulated discharges). The approach was applied to the Zwalm catchment, which is an agriculture-dominated watershed with a drainage area of 114 km2 located in East Flanders, Belgium. Uncertainty analysis of the model parameters is limited to the saturated hydraulic conductivity because of its high influence on the watershed hydrologic behavior and availability of the data. The assessment of output uncertainty is performed using the Monte Carlo method. The ensemble statistical watershed responses and their uncertainties are calculated and compared with measurements. The results show that the measured discharges fall within the 95% confidence interval of the modeled discharge. This provides the uncertainty bounds of the discharges that account for the uncertainty in saturated hydraulic conductivity. The methodology can be extended to address other uncertain parameters as far as the probability density function of the parameter is defined. 相似文献
3.
针对确定性模型难以描述含水层非均质空间分布的问题,提出基于随机理论的地下水环境风险评价方法。以矩形场地地下水污染风险评价为例,采用蒙特卡罗法生成大量渗透系数随机场,模拟含水层参数各种可能的非均质空间分布,在此基础上建立场地地下水流模型与溶质运移模型,分别计算污染物在地下水中的迁移转化情况。统计大量随机模拟中污染事故发生的频率,当模拟次数足够多时,污染频率收敛于污染概率,污染风险即通过污染概率体现出来。该方法将模型参数设为满足一定分布特征的随机变量,避免了确定性方法得出的武断的评价结果,可为工厂的选址、水源地的选址等工作提供科学指导。 相似文献
4.
Hugo A. Loaiciga Roy B. Leipnik Paul F. Hudak Miguel A. Marino 《Mathematical Geology》1996,28(5):563-584
Starting with a stochastic differential equation with random coefficients describing steady-state flow, the effective hydraulic conductivity of 1-, 2-, and 3-dimensional aquifers is derived. The natural logarithm of hydraulic conductivity (lnK) is assumed to be heterogeneous, with a spatial trend, and isotropic. The effective conductivity relates the mean specific discharge in an aquifer to the mean hydraulic gradient, thus its importance in predicting Darcian discharge when field data represent mean or average values of conductivity or hydraulic head. Effective conductivity results are presented in exact form in terms of elementary functions after the introduction of special sets of coordinate transformations in two and three dimensions. It was determined that in one, two, and three dimensions, for the type of aquifer heterogeneity considered, the effective hydraulic conductivity depends on: (i) the angle between the gradient of the trend of lnK and the mean hydraulic gradient (which is zero in the one-dimensional situation); (2) (inversely) on the product of the magnitude of the trend gradient of lnK, b, and the correlation scale of lnK, and (3) (proportionally) on the variance of lnK,
f
2
. The productb plays a central role in the stability of the results for effective hydraulic conductivity. 相似文献
5.
基于离散裂隙网络模型的裂隙水渗流计算 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
离散裂隙网络模型(Discrete Fracture Network（DFN）)是研究裂隙水渗流最为有效的手段之一。文章根据裂隙几何参数和水力参数的统计分布,利用Monte Carlo随机模拟技术生成二维裂隙网络,基于图论无向图的邻接矩阵判断裂隙网络的连通,利用递归算法提取出裂隙网络的主干网或优势流路径。基于立方定律和渗流连续性方程,利用数值解析法建立了二维裂隙网络渗流模型,分析不同边界条件下裂隙网络中的流体流动。结果表明,该方法可以模拟区域宏观水力梯度和边界条件下,裂隙网络水力梯度方向总的流量,以及节点的水位、节点间的流量和流动方向的变化特征,为区域岩溶裂隙水渗流计算提供了一种实用、可行的方法。 相似文献
6.
Rainfall-triggered landslides are the result of the complex water-related processes occurring in the atmosphere-soil-vegetation system. In this paper, we present a methodology to assess long-term slope stability from rainfall, soil, and vegetation parameters. Our approach couples the stochastic ecohydrological model developed by Rodríguez-Iturbe et al. (Proc R Soc A: Math Phys Eng Sci 455(1990): 3789–3805, 1999) and Laio et al. (Adv Water Resour 24(7):707–723, 2001b) and the unsaturated flow equation. In this way, the stochastic nature of the rainfall process propagates through the system, finally reaching the FS. Then, synthetic time series generated by numerical modeling are used to infer the FS statistical properties. The study of a hypothetical case study showed that the long-term slope stability is highly sensitive to the ratio of the amount of water that can be evapotranspirated and the amount of water the soil can infiltrate and less sensitive to the ratio of the saturated hydraulic coefficient and the long-term rainfall rate. A scaling analysis evidenced the existence of statistically significant (R2?≈?1) exponential relationships between ecohydrological dimensionless numbers and slope failure probability. The method presented here is a useful tool for landscape planning. 相似文献
7.
Aly I. El-Kadi 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(2):339-350
The effects of permeability variability on uncertainty of the results of a hydrocarbon biodegradation model are addressed.
The model includes saturated and unsaturated flow, multi-species transport, heat transport, and bacterial-growth processes.
A stochastic approach was used in the uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted, taking into consideration
the effects of heterogeneity. The Monte Carlo method was used, with permeability as the input stochastic variable. Results
showed that uncertainty increases with time. This can lead to difficulties regarding cleanup decision making such as predicting
the timeframe to reach an aquifer cleanup goal. It was not possible to replace the heterogeneous system with a homogeneous
one through the use of effective parameters that preserve an equivalent behavior of the two systems. Effective permeability
is space and time dependent and also depends on values of bioactivity parameters. The study also emphasized the importance
of accurately measuring certain bacterial parameters, namely, maximum substrate uptake rate for degradation and cell yield
coefficient. Uncertainties regarding nutrient and oxygen uptake and saturation parameters were less important for the current
application.
相似文献
| Aly I. El-KadiEmail: |
8.
Jinxi Song Weiwei Jiang Shaofeng Xu Guotao Zhang Liping Wang Min Wen Bo Zhang Yuanyuan Wang Yongqing Long 《Hydrogeology Journal》2016,24(8):2049-2062
Recognizing the heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity and hyporheic flow is critical for understanding contaminant transfer and biogeochemical and hydrological processes involving streams and aquifers. In this study, the heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity and Darcian flux in a submerged streambed and its adjacent exposed stream banks were investigated in the Beiluo River, northwest China. In the submerged streambed, Darcian flux was estimated by measurement of vertical hydraulic conductivity (K v) and vertical head gradient (VHG) using in-situ permeameter tests. On exposed stream banks, both horizontal hydraulic conductivity (K h) and K v were measured by on-site permeameter tests. In the submerged streambed, K v values gradually decreased with depth and the higher values were concentrated in the center and close to the erosional bank. Compared to the exposed stream banks, the K v values were higher in the streambed. From stream stage to the topmost layer of tested sediment, through increasing elevation, the K h values increased on the erosional bank, while they decreased on the depositional bank. The values of VHG along the thalweg illustrate that downwelling flux occurred in the deepest area while upwelling flux appeared in the other areas, which might result from the change of streambed elevation. The higher value of the Darcian flux in the submerged streambed existed near the erosional bank. 相似文献
9.
M. Bencsik M. F. Shamim R. H. Morris M. I. Newton 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2014,11(5):1189-1196
Horizontal sub-surface flow wetlands are essentially a bed of porous material in which suitable plants are grown to facilitate the removal of organic matter and particulates from wastewater. The aim of this study is to assess the reliability and accuracy of magnetic resonance transverse relaxation time for monitoring clogging development in a constructed wetland. In this study, three different horizontal sub-surface flow constructed wetland models have been produced using tubes packed with different sizes of glass beads with diameter 3, 8 and 14 mm. Accelerated clogging has been achieved by pumping sludge extracted from a real clogged wetland through the bead pack. A desktop MRI tomography system has been used to monitor the transverse relaxation rate as a function of position along the tube and hydraulic conductivity. To corroborate the clogging with magnetic resonance measurements, the head loss was monitored to determine the hydraulic conductivity. Using a bi-exponential fit to the spin echo train data, the slow relaxation rate contribution shows good correlation with the changing hydraulic conductivity. Both fast and slow contributions map well to the expected clog patterns for a constructed wetland. We have demonstrated that there is a linear correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and both parameters of a bi-exponential fit to R 2 eff , but particularly for the case of the short T 2 component. 相似文献
10.
随机水文地质学方法,较传统的确定性方法而言,是解决非均质含水层中水流和溶质运移问题的一种更为合理的手段。据以往研究,假设渗透系数场遵循对数正态分布,利用直接傅立叶变换方法来生成渗透系数随机场。应用基于随机理论的蒙特卡罗方法,来研究渗透系数的空间变异性对污染物运移结果的影响。实例研究表明,污染物在含水层中运移过程中污染羽的展布范围(二阶矩)随着渗透系数空间变异方差的增大而扩大,而污染羽在空间上的质心位置(一阶矩)基本不受方差的影响,仅取决于渗透系数随机场的均值大小。另外还分析了污染羽在各点的浓度变化方差和变异系数分别随渗透系数变异方差的变化状况。 相似文献
11.
The compaction of highly heterogeneous poroelastic reservoirs with the geology characterized by long‐range correlations displaying fractal character is investigated within the framework of the stochastic computational modelling. The influence of reservoir heterogeneity upon the magnitude of the stresses induced in the porous matrix during fluid withdrawal and rock consolidation is analysed by performing ensemble averages over realizations of a log‐normally distributed stationary random hydraulic conductivity field. Considering the statistical distribution of this parameter characterized by a coefficient of variation governing the magnitude of heterogeneity and a correlation function which decays with a power‐law scaling behaviour we show that the combination of these two effects result in an increase in the magnitude of effective stresses of the rock during reservoir depletion. Further, within the framework of a perturbation analysis we show that the randomness in the hydraulic conductivity gives rise to non‐linear corrections in the upscaled poroelastic equations. These corrections are illustrated by a self‐consistent recursive hierarchy of solutions of the stochastic poroelastic equations parametrized by a scale parameter representing the fluctuating log‐conductivity standard deviation. A classical example of land subsidence caused by fluid extraction of a weak reservoir is numerically simulated by performing Monte Carlo simulations in conjunction with finite elements discretizations of the poroelastic equations associated with an ensemble of geologies. Numerical results illustrate the effects of the spatial variability and fractal character of the permeability distribution upon the evolution of the Mohr–Coulomb function of the rock. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Identifying variably saturated water-flow patterns in a steep hillslope under intermittent heavy rainfall 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
The objective of this paper is to identify water-flow patterns in part of an active landslide, through the use of numerical
simulations and data obtained during a field study. The approaches adopted include measuring rainfall events and pore-pressure
responses in both saturated and unsaturated soils at the site. To account for soil variability, the Richards equation is solved
within deterministic and stochastic frameworks. The deterministic simulations considered average water-retention data, adjusted
retention data to account for stones or cobbles, retention functions for a heterogeneous pore structure, and continuous retention
functions for preferential flow. The stochastic simulations applied the Monte Carlo approach which considers statistical distribution
and autocorrelation of the saturated conductivity and its cross correlation with the retention function. Although none of
the models is capable of accurately predicting field measurements, appreciable improvement in accuracy was attained using
stochastic, preferential flow, and heterogeneous pore-structure models. For the current study, continuum-flow models provide
reasonable accuracy for practical purposes, although they are expected to be less accurate than multi-domain preferential
flow models.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
13.
将土壤或含水层的介质参数视为随机分布,建立了饱和非饱和水流运动的随机微分方程,利用随机数值求解方法,得到各种随机参数对水头分布和含水量空间变异性的影响。分析结果表明,随着渗透系数空间变异性和相关尺度的增大,含水层水头分布的变异性增大;对于区域内有抽水井分布的问题,在井点附近区域,z向水流速度空间变异性大,而在井点处变异性较小。当采用Gardner-Russo模型描述非饱和水分特征时,其非饱和土壤介质参数α的变异性对土壤负压和含水量变异性的影响大于饱和渗透系数,土壤含水量越小,含水量的空间变异性越大。初步讨论了根据随机数值方法研究地下水运动问题的可靠性分析方法。 相似文献
14.
Regional scale models of groundwater flow and transport often employ domain discretizations with grid blocks larger than typical scales of field data. For heterogeneous formations, this difference in scales is often handled by using effective (upscaled) parameters. We investigate the problem of upscaling hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity from a small scale of measurement to a larger scale of grid blocks. Transmissivity statistics is expressed in terms of statistics of hydraulic conductivity, and expressions for the effective (upscaled) hydraulic conductivity K
eff and transmissivity T
eff for steady state flow in confined heterogeneous aquifers are derived by means of stochastic averaging and perturbation analysis. These expressions reveal that the commonly used relation T
eff = BK
eff, where B is the confined aquifer thickness, is not generally valid. 相似文献
15.
Input parameters, such as rock mass strength parameters and deformation modulus, considered in the design of underground openings involve some uncertainty. The current uncertainty in these parameters is due to the inherent variability of these parameters. To quantify these parameters and design underground openings, the statistical methods must be utilized. In this research, a statistical method was used to define the GSI of rock mass (Geological Strength Index), block volume (Vb), and joint conditions (Jc). Using the GSI distribution function obtained from field data and intact rock strength characteristics, the statistical distribution functions of rock mass parameters were defined using the Monte Carlo method. The statistical analysis of the stability in Azad-pumped storage powerhouse cavern was carried out through the point estimate method. The appropriate support system was suggested according to the support pressure and the plastic zone around the cavern. This study showed the application of the statistical method, by combining the uncertainties of the intact rock strength and discontinuity parameters, in the assessment of the strength and deformability of rock masses and the support selection process in comparison with the deterministic methods. 相似文献
16.
To investigate the groundwater levels changes effects on the transpiration of Salix psammophila (S. psammophila) bush, systemic measurements of meteorological conditions, sap flow of S. psammophila, soil water contents and groundwater levels were conducted in the Hailiutu River catchment, NW of China. Based on the collected field data, Hydrus-1D software package was used to calibrate water movement for root uptake in the saturated–unsaturated zone. The soil hydraulic parameters and root uptake function parameters were calibrated. The simulated results of soil water contents and sap flow fitted well with the observed ones. Based on the calibrated hydraulic parameters, different groundwater levels were imposed at the low boundary to simulate the groundwater levels changes effects on the transpiration. The relationship between ratio of actual transpiration and potential (T/T p) and groundwater water table depth was established. The results shows that the ratio of actual transpiration and potential transpiration decreases with groundwater table depth increase as inverse ‘S’ shape. And the turn point is corresponding to the extinct depth, i.e., no groundwater contribution to S. psammophila transpiration. To further verify this phenomenon is universal, the soil hydraulic parameters were replaced with the other five groups in the calibrated forward model. The results confirmed the similar changes of T a/T p with the groundwater levels changed, i.e. inverse ‘S’ shape. However, the extinction depth is different corresponding to different soil hydraulic parameters. So, the research results indicated the relationship between transpiration and groundwater levels is non-linear function. 相似文献
17.
土壤的孔隙是具有连续分形性质的物理结构,根据土壤孔隙分形结构建立了非饱和水力传导度模型。模型包括综合系数、分形维数和临界体积比3个参数,综合系数为不同土壤基质势对应的非饱和水力传导度与饱和传导度之间的水力联系,与土壤质地有关;分形维数反映土壤孔隙结构对于非饱和水力传导度的作用,土壤不同尺寸孔隙之间的连通性则通过临界体积加以描述。模型具有较为明确的物理解释。将模型应用于5种不同土壤的结果表明,所提出的非饱和水力传导度模型具有较好的模拟效果。 相似文献
18.
探讨了将蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)方法应用于多尺度非均质含水层中溶质运移模拟的方法。所研究的含水层由两种具有不同渗透系数统计特征的多孔介质所组成,每一种多孔介质是非均质的,且其渗透系数场符合平稳假设,而整个模拟区的渗透系数是非平稳的。Monte Carlo方法要求参数是平稳的,因此,分别对两种多孔介质产生若干随机渗透系数场后,用两种方法进行组合,并进行溶质运移的模拟计算。通过对计算结果的分析,综合考虑计算精度、计算时间等因素,得出了处理多尺度非均质多孔介质中溶质运移问题的较好方法。 相似文献
19.
Numerical evaluation of multicomponent cation exchange reactive transport in physically and geochemically heterogeneous porous media 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Experimental evidence and stochastic studies strongly show that the transport of reactive solutes in porous media is significantly
influenced by heterogeneities in hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and sorption parameters. In this paper, we present Monte
Carlo numerical simulations of multicomponent reactive transport involving competitive cation exchange reactions in a two-dimensional
vertical physically and geochemically heterogeneous medium. Log hydraulic conductivity, log K, and log cation exchange capacity (log CEC) are assumed to be random Gaussian functions with spherical semivariograms. Random
realizations of log K and log CEC are used as input data for the numerical simulation of multicomponent reactive transport with CORE2D, a general purpose reactive transport code. Longitudinal features of the fronts of reactive and conservative species are
computed from the temporal and spatial moments of depth-averaged concentrations. Monte Carlo simulations show that: (1) the
displacement of reactive fronts increases with increasing variance of log K, while it decreases with the variance of log CEC; (2) second-order spatial moments increase with increasing variances of
log K and log CEC; (3) uncertainties in the mean arrival time are largest (smallest) for negatively (positively) correlated log
K and Log CEC; (4) cations undergoing competitive cation exchange exhibit different apparent velocities and retardation factors
due to both physical and geochemical heterogeneities; and (5) the correlation between log K and log CEC affects significantly apparent cation retardation factors in heterogeneous aquifers. 相似文献
20.
Grain-size distribution data,as a substitute for measuring hydraulic conductivity(K),has often been used to get K value indirectly.With grain-size distribution data of 150 sets of samples being input data,this study combined the Artificial Neural Network technology(ANN)and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method(MCMC),which replaced the Monte Carlo method(MC)of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation(GLUE),to establish the GLUE-ANN model for hydraulic conductivity prediction and uncertainty analysis.By means of applying the GLUE-ANN model to a typical piedmont region and central region of North China Plain,and being compared with actually measured values of hydraulic conductivity,the relative error ranges are between 1.55%and 23.53%and between 14.08%and 27.22%respectively,the accuracy of which can meet the requirements of groundwater resources assessment.The global best parameter gained through posterior distribution test indicates that the GLUEANN model,which has satisfying sampling efficiency and optimization capability,is able to reasonably reflect the uncertainty of hydrogeological parameters.Furthermore,the influence of stochastic observation error(SOE)in grain-size analysis upon prediction of hydraulic conductivity was discussed,and it is believed that the influence can not be neglected. 相似文献